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Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 6 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Six different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter.  Assuming the nine players turn down the one-year, $17.4MM offer, here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.

[Related: Offseason Primer: The New Qualifying Offer Rules]

Cubs

The Cubs made qualifying offers to right-handers Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis.  The Cubs were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, regardless of the size of the contracts Arrieta and Davis sign, the Cubs will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.

Cardinals

The Cardinals made a qualifying offer to starter Lance Lynn.  Like the Cubs, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor.  Regardless of the amount Lynn signs for, the Cardinals will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.

Royals

The Royals made qualifying offers to center fielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and third baseman Mike Moustakas.  The Royals were a revenue sharing recipient.  If any of their three free agents sign for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the Royals get draft pick compensation after the first round.  For any of the three that signs for less than $50MM, the Royals get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B.  MLBTR projects all three players to sign for well over $50MM, so the Royals should have a very favorable draft pool in 2018, potentially adding three picks in the top 35 or so if all three sign elsewhere.

Rays

The Rays made a qualifying offer to right-hander Alex Cobb.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rockies, and Indians.  However, Cobb is a borderline free agent when it comes to a $50MM contract, in our estimation.  The team will be rooting for him to reach that threshold, as the Rays would then net a compensatory pick after the first round.  If Cobb falls shy of that total guarantee, the Rays will receive an extra pick after Comp Round B.

Rockies

The Rockies made a qualifying offer to closer Greg Holland.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Indians.  Holland, too, is a borderline $50MM free agent, though he certainly figures to aim higher than that in the early stages of free agency.  If he reaches $50MM+, the Rox will get a pick after the first round.  If not, they’ll receive a pick after Comp Round B.

Indians

The Indians made a qualifying offer to first baseman Carlos Santana.  They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Rockies.  Santana is another borderline $50MM free agent in our estimation, but it’s certainly possible he clears that threshold and nets Cleveland a pick after the first round.

So, the Cubs and Cardinals already know where their draft-pick compensation will land if their qualified free agents sign elsewhere: after Competitive Balance Round B, which currently starts with pick No. 76.  The Royals, Rays, Rockies, and Indians will all be rooting for their free agents to sign for at least $50MM, granting them compensation after the first round, which begins with pick No. 31.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/7/17

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After a busy transactional day yesterday, let’s catch up on some of the latest minor moves:

  • Catcher Bryan Holaday and outfielder Alex Presley have elected free agency from the Tigers, Evan Woodberry of MLive.com reports on Twitter. Each of the veterans was outrighted recently, though Woodberry hints that Detroit has interest in bringing both back on minors deals. Holaday will enter the pool of catchers that are looking for opportunities to compete for reserve jobs in camp. The 32-year-old Presley should also draw attention from other organizations; he turned in 264 plate appearances of .314/.354/.416 hitting in 2017.
  • The Rockies selected the contract of outfielder Noel Cuevas, per a club announcement. Acquired from the division-rival Dodgers in the trade that sent Juan Nicasio to Los Angeles, Cuevas blossomed at Triple-A Alburquerque in 2017. Across 528 plate appearances, he posted a .312/.353/.487 slash with 15 long balls and 16 steals.
  • Two players were also added to the Yankees 40-man roster, the club announced. Outfielder Jake Cave is one of them; the one-time Rule 5 pick won’t be eligible for the draft again this year. He turned in a compelling season in the upper minors, including a robust .324/.367/.554 batting line with 15 long balls in 297 Triple-A plate appearances. Joining him is righty Nick Rumbelow, who returned from Tommy John surgery with aplomb last year. Over 40 1/3 innings, he allowed just five earned runs on 21 hits while racking up a 45:11 K/BB ratio.
  • The Indians selected the contract of Eric Haase, per the MLB.com transactions page. The 24-year-old backstop knocked around Double-A pitching to the tune of a .258/.349/.574 batting line and 26 homers through 381 plate appearances.
  • Cuban catcher Lorenzo Quintana is joining the Astros for a $200K bonus, per MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez (via Twitter). The 28-year-old is not subject to international signing restrictions. Quintana was long one of the most productive receivers in Cuba’s Serie Nacional, carrying a lifetime .310/.377/.438 batting line, but he last played there in the 2014-15 season.

Rockies Decline Club Option Over Alexi Amarista

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The Rockies have declined their $2.5MM club option over utility infielder Alexi Amarista, reports MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. Amarista will receive a $150K buyout and head back into the free-agent market this winter. Harding also notes that Greg Holland’s player option has now been formally declined — an outcome that had been previously reported upon.

Amarista inked a one-year pact with the Rox last winter after spending the majority of his career with the division-rival Padres. Amarista’s role in Colorado was a limited one, as he appeared in just 96 games and totaled 176 plate appearances. While he gave first-year Rox skipper Bud Black some versatility on the defensive end of the spectrum — Amarista saw time at second base, shortstop, third base and in all three outfield spots — the 28-year-old wasn’t able to provide any value at the plate.

In his 176 PAs, Amarista batted just .238/.269/.351 with three homers and 10 doubles. Defensive versatility with questionable offensive output has been the norm for Amarista throughout his career, however. In parts of seven big league seasons, he’s a career .231/.275/.323 hitter in 1901 plate appearances. He’ll likely draw interest from clubs looking to add veteran depth options that can compete for a bench spot next spring, but his struggles at the plate in one of the game’s premier offensive environments make it likely that Amarista will have to settle for a minor league deal this time around.

Greg Holland Declines Player Option

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NOV. 6: Holland has formally declined his option, reports MLB.com’s Thomas Harding. The Rockies are expected to attempt to re-sign him to a multi-year pact, per Harding, and a $17.4MM qualifying offer is a virtual certainty. (Holland already rejected a one-year deal at $15MM by declining his option, after all.)

OCT. 12: Rockies closer Greg Holland will decline his $15MM player option and re-enter the free agent market in search of a more lucrative multi-year deal, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman.

Once the option is formally declined, the Rockies will have the opportunity to make Holland a qualifying offer of a $17.4MM. Presumably, Holland will again reject that figure, thus setting up the Rox to recoup some draft pick compensation if he ultimately signs elsewhere.

Greg Holland | Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports

This decision from Holland was largely expected, though his shaky second half at least created a marginal sense of doubt after an opt-out looked to be a virtual lock as late into the season as the non-waiver trade deadline. Set to turn 32 this offseason, Holland posted a brilliant 1.56 ERA through 40 1/3 innings from Opening Day to Aug. 4, but he limped to the finish line with a ghastly 8.47 ERA in his final 17 regular-season innings before serving up another pair of runs in the NL Wild Card game. In his defense, he did pitch quite well in September; the damage was primarily confined to one abysmal eight-game stretch in August.

Holland was legitimately dominant for the season’s first couple of months, although as Fangraphs’ Dave Cameron pointed out during his August swoon, there were red flags about his performance long before his ERA eventually reflected a decline. Holland’s velocity dipped partway through the season (though it did bounce back even in the midst of his ugly finish), and he began to struggle with his control as early on as June. Not only was Holland struggling with walks, but he was also unable to command his fastball within the strike zone, Cameron observed, throwing an abnormal number of middle-middle fastballs.

That said, it’s perhaps not entirely surprising that Holland would fade a bit down the stretch. The 2017 season was his first effort back after missing the entire 2016 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Agent Scott Boras will undoubtedly chalk some of Holland’s late dip in performance up to that fact, staking the claim that he’ll hold up better now that he’s had a full year to rebuild some arm strength. There’s likely some truth to the argument, though it’s of course nearly impossible to determine how much of Holland’s late struggles are attributable to the surgery.

Even with Holland’s end-of-season woes, though, his overall numbers on the year look solid. He wrapped up the 2017 season with a 3.61 ERA and an impressive 11.0 K/9 mark through 57 1/3 innings. While he averaged 4.1 BB/9, Holland averaged 1.1 HR/9 despite the league-wide uptick in homers and despite playing half his games at Coors Field. Of the seven homers he allowed, five came in that dreadful August slump.

Holland will be hitting the open market at roughly the same age that Mark Melancon did before scoring a then-record-setting four-year, $62MM contract with the Giants. Holland’s late slide and relative proximity to Tommy John surgery could put that contract out of reach, but it’s sure to be a talking point for Boras this offseason when negotiating with interested parties. And even if Holland comes up shy of that sum, it still stands to reason that he’s all but certain to considerably out-earn the one year and $15MM he’s leaving on the table to again test free agency.

[Related: Colorado Rockies depth chart and payroll outlook]

For the Rockies, Holland will be just one of multiple relievers departing for the open market. He’ll be joined by two of the team’s top setup men: lefty Jake McGee and righty Pat Neshek. Beyond that, the Rox also stand to lose right-handed starter Tyler Chatwood to free agency, leaving GM Jeff Bridich no shortage of work to do when it comes to rounding out his team’s pitching staff.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Rockies Notes: Holland, Bullpen, Amarista

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  • Rockies GM Jeff Bridich has said that he’ll in touch with Greg Holland’s representatives about a return in 2018, though Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post breaks down the Rockies’ options at closer next season with or without Holland in the mix.  Antonio Senzatela, German Marquez or Carlos Estevez could be internal options to take the ninth-inning job, or the Rockies could acquire another closer via trade or free agent signing.  Re-signing Holland is also an option, though that carries the usual risks in committing big money and dollars to a veteran reliever, particularly one with Holland’s injury history.
  • In another piece from Saunders, he opines that bench depth will be a need for the Rockies in the offseason.  Pat Valaika brought some nice pop and versatility last year, though youngsters Ryan McMahon and Mike Tauchman don’t have much experience.  Saunders doesn’t think the Rockies will exercise their $2.5MM club option on Alexi Amarista, given the utilityman’s poor hitting and overall fielding numbers in 2017.  One internal bench option could be David Dahl, if the former top prospect is healthy after missing virtually all of last season due to a rib injury.

Cafardo: Rox Still Deciding On CarGo's Future

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  • The Rockies are still deciding whether to give impending free agent outfielder Carlos Gonzalez a qualifying offer, per Cafardo. It’s difficult to imagine the Rockies taking a $17.4MM chance on Gonzalez, though, considering he’s fresh off the worst year of his career. Despite playing his home games at Coors Field, the 32-year-old Gonzalez hit just .262/.339/.423 with unspectacular power numbers (14 home runs, .162 ISO) across 534 trips to the plate. As has typically been the case, the lefty-swinger struggled against same-handed pitchers and away from Colorado.

    [SOURCE LINK]

Assessing Rockies' Bullpen Options

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  • Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post breaks down the Rockies bullpen options entering the offseason. With Greg Holland, Jake McGee, and mid-season acquisition Pat Neshek all set to hit the open market, there are plenty of questions despite the generally promising performance of the unit in 2017. So long as Colorado is willing to spend near last year’s level (around $130MM), there ought to be some space to fit some reasonably significant salaries to fill out and improve the pen.

Saunders On Rockies' Offseason

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Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tackles a number of topics pertaining to the Rockies’ offseason in his latest Rockies Mailbag column. Among the more interesting items of note, Saunders opines that Carlos Gonzalez’s days in Colorado are through, noting that it’s unlikely that he’ll receive a qualifying offer. Saunders also notes that the ascension of prospect Ryan McMahon, who has been working out at second base, could also cloud DJ LeMahieu’s future with the club. LeMahieu is a free agent after the 2018 season, and McMahon has little left to prove in the minors. McMahon cut his teeth as a corner infielder, however, so it seems possible that the Rox could yet view him as an option at first base, where they’re currently a bit unsettled. Ian Desmond, of course, is an option there, though he could also be utilized in the outfield or elsewhere on the diamond (perhaps even at second base, speculatively speaking, though he has hasn’t played there since 2009 with the Nationals).

Rockies Expected To Pursue Reunion With Jonathan Lucroy

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Jonathan Lucroy has already openly expressed interest in returning to the Rockies, and MLB.com’s Thomas Harding writes today that the Rox are “expected” to pursue a reunion with the 31-year-old backstop. As Harding points out, the Rockies will return a very young pitching staff in 2018, and the team could benefit from an experienced handler of that youthful group.

Lucroy, of course, exercised his contractual right to veto a trade from the Brewers to the Indians last summer after being informed by Cleveland that he’d likely see significant time at first base. Soon after, he was flipped to the Rangers, who utilized him as their primary catcher following last year’s non-waiver deadline and for much of the first half of the 2017 season. Lucroy took Texas by storm in 2016, mashing at a .276/.345/.539 pace with 11 homers and seven doubles in just 168 trips to the plate.

Unfortunately for both Lucroy and the Rangers, he struggled through the worst half-season of his career to open the 2017 campaign, batting just .242/.297/.338 with only four homers in 306 PAs. The two-time All-Star began to cede playing time to Robinson Chirinos in Texas and was eventually traded to the Rockies for a player to be named later (young but well-regarded outfield prospect Pedro Gonzalez). With the Rox, Lucroy’s season turned around, as he slashed .310/.429/.437 with a pair of homers, six doubles and three triples in his final 175 plate appearances.

Certainly, Lucroy’s overall line of .265/.345/.371 pales in comparison to the .292/.355/.500 output he managed in 2016, but the solid finish to the season helped to salvage some free-agent value. With a solid run to close out the year and an impressive track record, Lucroy still looks like a candidate to earn a multi-year deal in free agency, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd recently explored at length.

The Rockies and other interested parties will need to determine exactly what to make of Lucroy’s defensive skills. After throwing out a career-high 39 percent of opposing base thieves in 2016, Lucroy returned to his career norm in 2017, throwing out a solid-but-unspectacular 27 percent of runners. His framing metrics, meanwhile, once rated among the best in baseball. In 2017, Baseball Prospectus ranked him last among MLB receivers in that category. That doesn’t necessarily make him a poor defensive backstop — Salvador Perez routinely rates poorly but is generally regarded as a plus overall defender, for instance — but the deteriorated framing numbers certainly won’t do Lucroy any favors when negotiating with suitors this winter.

Even if the Rockies and Lucroy are ultimately unable to agree on a price point, Colorado seems likely to pursue some form of catching help this offseason. Outside of Lucroy, the Rockies received virtually no offensive production from the combination of Tony Wolters (.240/.341/.284 in 266 PAs), Tom Murphy (.042/.115/.083 in 26 PAs), Ryan Hanigan (.267/.324/.347 in 112 PAs) and Dustin Garneau (.206/.260/.353 in 74 PAs). Garneau has since been claimed off waivers by the A’s and the veteran Hanigan is a free agent, further thinning out the herd.

NL West Notes: Seager, Rockies, Padres

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Dodgers phenom Corey Seager feels “normal-ish”, according to manager Dave Roberts (via an article by Ken Gurnick of MLB.com). Seager was injured while sliding into second base during the game in which the Dodgers clinched the NLDS series victory, and hasn’t done any baseball activity since then. Roberts adds that Seager won’t be traveling with the team to Chicago, though that could change under certain circumstances. Regardless, Seager can’t be added to the NLCS roster at this point unless someone on the current roster gets injured. In that case, the player Seager replaces would be ineligible for the Dodgers’ World Series roster, should the team advance that far. The 23-year old Seager batted .295/.375/.479 with 22 home runs during the regular season, and ranked first among all NL shortstops in fWAR. His situation will certainly be worth monitoring closely.

More from baseball’s NL West division…

  • In a mailbag article for MLB.com, Rockies beat writer Thomas Harding points out that Colorado used only eight total starting pitchers this past season, which was incredibly lucky considering they averaged 12 starters per season from 2011-2016. Seven of those eight starters are set to return in 2018, and while they have youth on their side, Harding wonders how the organization will adapt if their luck with pitcher injuries regresses to the mean. The Rockies playoff hopes for the next few years will rest largely on the health and development of their young starters, including Jon Gray, Jeff Hoffman, Antonio Senzatela, German Marquez and Kyle Freeland.
  • Speaking of mailbag articles for MLB.com, Padres beat writer AJ Cassavell suggests that San Diego’s bullpen-related offseason plans will largely hinge on whether any teams will meet GM A.J. Preller’s asking price on lefty Brad Hand. If Hand is traded, the Padres’ bullpen will likely need a significant overhaul, including some spending on established major leaguers. However, if he isn’t moved and the club is able to retain Craig Stammen, their relief corps may only need a few tweaks for 2018. To say that Hand essentially was the Padres’ bullpen in 2017 isn’t an exaggeration; his 3.89 Win Probability Added (WPA) ranked fourth-best among all relievers in baseball. All other Padres relievers combined for -1.76 WPA, and Stammen was the only other arm in their ’pen to exceed 0.20.
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