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Rockies, Charlie Blackmon Avoid Arbitration

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The Rockies have avoided arbitration with outfielder Charlie Blackmon by agreeing to a one-year deal worth $14MM, according to Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports (Twitter link). The ACES client had a projected arbitration salary of $13.4MM, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Matt also took a more in-depth look at Blackmon’s case and some of the intricacies surrounding his projection as part of his Arbitration Breakdown series.

Blackmon, 31, finished fifth in the NL MVP voting this past season on the heels of a brilliant campaign in Colorado. In a league-leading 725 plate appearances, Blackmon hit .331/.399/.601 with 37 homers, taking home the NL batting title. Blackmon also paced the National League in runs scored (137), hits (213), triples (14) and total bases (387). All of that combined to give Blackmon a massive raise of $6.7MM — a 91.7 percent increase over last year’s salary of $7.3MM.

This’ll be the final trip through the arbitration process for Blackmon, who will be a part of one of the best free-agent classes in recent memory next offseason. He’ll be joined by teammates DJ LeMahieu and Chad Bettis in that regard, both of whom are also eligible for arbitration this winter (as can be seen in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker). Lefty Zac Rosscup caps off the Rockies’ arbitration class.

Players Avoiding Arbitration: 1/11/18

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With tomorrow’s deadline for exchanging arbitration figures looming, arbitration agreements are likely to flow freely — particularly with a newly universal file-and-trial stance spurring things along. As always, MLBTR’s 2018 Arbitration Projections and 2018 MLB Arbitration Tracker are the places to go for more information. We’ll track today’s deals right here:

  • D-backs lefty Patrick Corbin has signed a one-year contract for the 2018 season, the club announced tonight. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that Corbin, who will be a free agent next season, will earn $7.5MM in his final season of arbitration. That comes in shy of his $8.3MM projection, though it’s nonetheless nearly twice what he made in 2017 ($3.95MM).
  • The Blue Jays avoided arbitration with outfielder Ezequiel Carrera and lefty Aaron Loup, per Nightengale (Twitter links). Carrera’s $1.9MM salary matches his projection, while Loup’s $1.8125MM payday is slightly north of his own $1.8MM projection. Loup will be a free agent next winter, while Carrera is controlled through 2019.
  • Nightengale also tweets that Angels catcher Martin Maldonado has agreed to a $3.9MM salary for the upcoming season, meaning the reigning AL Gold Glove winner behind the dish rather handily trounced his $2.8MM projection. Maldonado, 31, is also entering his final year of team control and will be a free agent next winter.

Earlier Agreements

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Arbitration Breakdown: Charlie Blackmon

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Recently, I have been discussing some of the higher-profile upcoming arbitration cases as part of MLBTR’s Arbitration Breakdown series. I rely partly on my arbitration model developed exclusively for MLB Trade Rumors, but will also break out some interesting comparables and determine where the model might be wrong. Full arbitration projections for 2018 are also available.

Charlie Blackmon put up some gaudy numbers in 2017, hitting .331 to go along with 37 home runs and 104 RBIs. As a result, my model projected him for a very high raise. However, the model also utilizes something called the Kimbrel Rule– which states that no player gets projected for an increase more than $1MM higher than the record raise for his service class. This limits Blackmon to a $6.1MM raise, which lands him at a $13.4MM projection for the 2018 season. Truth be told, though, the model actually spit out a $16.8MM salary estimate!

Charlie Blackmon | Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

There are two different run environment factors to consider for Blackmon that could be inflating the way his number would be viewed by an arbitration panel. Blackmon plays his home games at Coors Field, a notorious home run park. FanGraphs gives Rockies’ players a 116 park factor, suggesting Blackmon’s 37 home runs might be the equivalent of 32 home runs in a more neutral setting.

Further inflating Blackmon’s home run total is something that will affect a great number of cases this year—the dramatically increased level of home runs throughout the league. This past season set a league record with 6,105 total home runs—this was 26 percent higher than the average from the last five years. So when I look at players with similar totals over the last five years, it is unclear whether an arbitration panel (or teams and agents that are negotiating in the shadow of what an arbitration panel would say) would treat home runs from Blackmon as similar to other players with the same number of home runs, or as someone with maybe 26 percent fewer home runs.

My model does not adjust for league or park home run environment in this way; in general the data has shown that run environment is not a big consideration in arbitration. Hitters in high-scoring years benefit from being compared to hitters in lower-scoring years. Pitchers in low-scoring years benefit from being compared to pitchers in high-scoring years.

If you knock down Blackmon’s home run total by league and park effects, he lands somewhere around the equivalent of 25 home runs in a neutral park in a prior season. But of course, that may not be what the panel considers. Most likely, they will just compare him (favorably) to the current record-holder in this service class, which is Chase Headley from 2013. Headley hit .286 with 31 homers, 115 RBIs and 17 stolen bases in the platform season for his final trip through the arbitration process.

Blackmon outperformed Headley in both homers and average, and he also stole 14 bags, further helping his case. It seems likely to Blackmon will be seen as favorable to Headley — especially considering the fact that Headley’s case is already five years old — so I think earning a raise north of $6MM seems likely.

If we’re looking for other recent players with a lot of home runs who reached arbitration, Todd Frazier’s name emerges. He hit 40 home runs in his platform season, but at .225, his average was more than a hundred points below Blackmon’s. Frazier got a $3.75MM raise, which Blackmon should easily crush.

Eric Hosmer is another potential comparable, but he’s also clearly a player with an inferior case to that of Blackmon. In 2016, Hosmer’s platform before his final trip through arbitration, he hit .266 with 25 homers and 104 RBIs. Blackmon has him handled in every category, so Hosmer’s $4MM raise is another example of a potential floor for Blackmon’s raise.

I think it’s clear that Blackmon is going to set a new record. The “Kimbrel Rule” has worked very well since its inception, and I think it will apply well here. Look for Blackmon to land somewhere between $13-14MM, with some chance of going slightly above that if and when he settles on a one-year deal for the 2018 season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Minor MLB Transactions: 1/10/18

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We’ll track the latest minor signings and other transactions here …

  • The Brewers have brought back left-hander Nick Ramirez on a minor-league deal, per a club announcement. Brewer Nation first tweeted word of the signing. He converted from first base to the mound in 2017, turning in rather impressive results. In 79 1/3 frames over 49 appearances, all but one of which came at Double-A, Ramirez ran a 1.36 ERA with 6.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9. It obviously remains to be seen whether the former fourth-round pick can earn a shot at the majors, but it seems promising that he was able to throttle both right-handed (.214/.260/.305) and left-handed hitters (.167/.273/.240) while working in a multi-inning role.
  • First baseman/outfielder Kyle Jensen has a minors deal with the Giants, per SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo (via Twitter). The 29-year-old has only seen brief MLB time but has generally produced quality numbers at Triple-A. In 1,793 plate appearances at the highest level of the minors, he carries a .266/.341/.488 batting line with 178 home runs — though also over a thousand strikeouts. Jensen had a six-game stretch last year with Japan’s Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, but otherwise did not appear professionally. A former 12th round draft pick of the Marlins, Jensen has also spent time in recent years with the Dodgers and Diamondbacks organizations.
  • Also signing a minor-league pact is lefty Keith Hessler, who’ll join the Rockies, according to Cotillo (Twitter link). Hessler, 28, has 34 MLB frames under his belt, over which he has allowed 21 earned runs while recording 23 strikeouts and issuing 17 walks. He has mostly plied his trade in the upper minors in recent years, though he also took an indy ball detour last season. At times, Hessler has produced solid groundball numbers and been very hard on opposing lefties, though neither really held true in his most recent showing. In 45 1/3 Triple-A frames with the Padres in 2017, Hessler carried a 4.57 ERA with 7.1 K/9 and 4.6 BB/9.

Pirates Claim Shane Carle, Designate Johnny Barbato

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The Pirates announced on Thursday that they’ve claimed righty Shane Carle off waivers from the Rockies and designated right-hander Johnny Barbato for assignment in order to clear a spot on the 40-man roster. Carle was designated for assignment last week when the Rockies signed Wade Davis.

Carle, 26, made his Major League debut with the Rockies last year, tossing four innings and yielding three runs on six hits and no walks with four punchouts. He averaged 93.6 mph on his heater in that brief four-inning sample and spent the bulk of the year in Triple-A, where he struggled to a 5.37 ERA in an extremely hitter-friendly setting. Carle averaged 7.3 K/9 against 3.2 BB/9 with a 43.9 percent ground-ball rate in Albuquerque — his second go-around at that level.

Carle was initially drafted by the Pirates back in 2013, though Pittsburgh traded him to Colorado in exchange for righty Rob Scahill about 18 months later. He has a pair of minor league options remaining, so the Bucs can send him to Triple-A this spring without needing to expose him to waivers.

Barbato, 25, posted a 4.08 ERA with 7.2 K/9, 5.7 BB/9 and a 37.9 percent grounder rate in 28 2/3 frames out of the Pittsburgh ’pen last season. He turned in more encouraging K/BB numbers and a solid 3.06 ERA in 35 1/3 Triple-A innings with the Pirates, but Barbato also averaged a gaudy 1.78 HR/9 while pitching in Triple-A. That, paired with his control problems in the Majors, may have made him expendable in the Pirates’ eyes.

Barbato averages better than 94 mph on his fastball and has averaged better than a strikeout per inning over the vast majority of his career, including upper-minors stints with the Yankees and Pirates in recent seasons. He still has a minor league option remaining, so another club in need of bullpen depth could pick him up and hope to better help him harness his command with a change of scenery.

NL West Notes: Dahl, D-Backs, Padres

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After a lost season due to a stress reaction in his rib cage, Rockies outfielder David Dahl has been cleared to begin swinging a bat, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. The 23-year-old Dahl, a longtime top prospect, turned heads with a .315/.359/.500 slash in 63 games as a rookie in 2016, but his injury prevented him from logging a single game in 2017. A November MRI, however, revealed that Dahl’s injury has finally healed completely, according to Harding. Dahl has since been performing rotational exercises and building muscle mass as a means of strengthening the problematic area and avoiding similar issues in 2018. Dahl explains to Harding that he attempted to work back numerous times in 2017, but while he’d feel strong after two to three weeks of rest at a time, his symptoms would resurface upon ramping up workouts. Dahl also details changes to his diet and nutrition, both with an eye toward maintaining muscle mass, that he feels will help him stay healthy and emerge as a factor for the Rockies.

Elsewhere in the division…

  • Diamondbacks general manager Mike Hazen tells Steve Gilbert of MLB.com that he doesn’t feel his offseason work is done yet. While Hazen states that there’s no signing or trade imminent, he also notes that he’s still actively exploring both markets and feels there’s room for additions to his Major League roster. Gilbert notes that multiple teams have approached the D-backs about lefty Patrick Corbin, who will be a free agent next winter and comes with a projected arbitration salary of $8.3MM. Moving Corbin or right-hander Zack Greinke would free up the D-backs to spend more on the free agent market. Gilbert notes that the Diamondbacks are keeping an eye out for a potential long-term option at catcher and is also on the lookout for depth in the outfield.
  • The Padres have been stockpiling rotation options for the coming season but are reluctant to commit to much in 2019 and beyond, writes MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell (hence the decision not to re-sign Jhoulys Chacin). The Friars already have Clayton Richard signed through 2019, with Dinelson Lamet, Luis Perdomo and Bryan Mitchell all representing cost-effective long-term options as well. With that group in place and prospects like Cal Quantrill, Eric Lauer, Joey Lucchesi and Jacob Nix in Double-A (plus Matt Strahm, Colin Rea and Robbie Erlin returning from injury), the Padres indeed are well-stocked with long-term potential. Cassavell notes that the Padres, who’ve also recently agreed to offseason deals with Jordan Lyles (on a big league deal), Tyson Ross (minor league deal) and Chris Young (minor league deal), are weighing a six-man rotation in 2018 and beyond.

NL Notes: Marlins, Dodgers, Rockies, Brewers

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Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald has obtained two versions of Project Wolverine – the operational plan of new Marlins owners Derek Jeter and Bruce Sherman – one of which is from August and the other from a couple months before. According to the document, whose name stems from Jeter’s home state of Michigan (the Wolverine State), the Marlins will turn a profit in 2018. Most of that will come from MLB’s sale of BAMTech to Disney, which entitles each team to a one-time payout of $50MM. Otherwise, exactly how much of a profit the Marlins will rake in next season is going to depend largely on their television deal with Fox, Jackson explains.

Back in August, Jeter and Sherman forecast a $68MM “cash flow” profit, but they projected $44.8MM would come via an up-front payment from a renegotiated TV contract with Fox. There hasn’t been a renegotiation yet, though, and if it doesn’t occur, the Marlins’ projected profits would drop to $23MM or lower for next season, Jackson reports. The Marlins’ pact with Fox runs through 2020 and ranks as the lowest-paying TV contract in the majors, and as Jackson notes, it’s a key reason why the team is unwilling to field a larger payroll. Additionally, as of August, the Marlins expected a 2018 spike in attendance revenue, but that now looks questionable at best with fan favorites Giancarlo Stanton and Marcell Ozuna having been traded in payroll-slashing deals. Looking beyond next season, Jeter and Sherman projected profits of $10MM in 2019, $15.8MM in 2020 and $22MM in 2021 in August, details Jackson, whose piece is well worth a full read.

More from the NL:

  • The Dodgers have hired former major league right-hander Mark Prior to serve as their bullpen coach, according to Tim Brown of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links here). Prior had worked as the division-rival Padres’ minor league pitching coordinator since he officially retired from the game in 2013. The 37-year-old was “very good” in that role, notes Brown, who suggests Prior could eventually take over for Rick Honeycutt as the Dodgers’ pitching coach.
  • The Rockies re-signed reliever Jake McGee to a three-year, $27MM contract earlier this winter, and he repaid the club by helping recruit closer Wade Davis to Colorado, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post relays. “I told him this was a team that was going to win now,” said McGee. “I told him that (manager) Bud Black was awesome and I really liked how he used the bullpen. I told him the team was awesome and the communication was really good.” McGee and Davis, who joined the Rox last week on a three-year, $52MM pact, previously played together in both the minors and majors as members of the Rays organization. The two were even Single-A roommates at times, Saunders adds.
  • Brewers righty Jimmy Nelson, who underwent surgery on a torn labrum in September, told MLB Network on Tuesday that his “rehab is going just about as well as it could possibly go, knock on wood” (via Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel). Its still unclear, though, how much time the 28-year-old will miss next season after emerging as a front-of-the-rotation starter in 2017. For now, Nelson’s “really anxious to start a throwing program and get to spring training.”

Rockies Notes: Davis, Bridich, Holland, Arenado, Harrison

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The signings of Wade Davis, Bryan Shaw, and Jake McGee have given the Rockies a deep and experienced relief corps, though ESPN.com’s Keith Law (Insider subscription required and recommended) wonders if the team needed to go to such expensive lengths to reinforce its bullpen.  Other teams who have relied on excellent pens in recent seasons, Law notes, have generally used their own homegrown arms or low-cost converted starters as relievers rather than sign several pricey free agents.  Law also isn’t a fan of the three-year, $52MM Davis contract in general, citing Davis’ injuries and dip in performance over the last two seasons from his 2014-15 dominance.

Here’s more on the Rockies from GM Jeff Bridich’s chat with reporters (including MLB.com’s Thomas Harding and the Denver Post’s Nick Groke) on Friday…

  • Despite the mutual interest between Colorado and former closer Greg Holland, the two sides weren’t able to reach agreement on a reunion, with Bridich saying two weeks ago that the team had made Holland a “strong offer” to re-sign.  It seems as if the Rockies then made a swift pivot to Davis, as while Davis and the team had been linked earlier this winter, Bridich said the deal was made just within the last week.
  • After so heavily remaking the bullpen, the Rockies are likely done with pitching additions altogether.  “I’d be very surprised if we added another reliever or a starter,” Bridich said.
  • The next step would seem to be addressing needs in the corner outfield or at first base.  In Harding’s words, Bridich was “open, but non-committal” about the idea of re-signing Carlos Gonzalez, with the GM simply noting that Gonzalez was “part of the market.”
  • While Bridich didn’t put a timetable on extension talks with Nolan Arenado, “there definitely are conversations that will happen” about locking up the star third baseman.  Teams generally wait until Spring Training or until significant offseason business has been concluded to discuss extensions with their players, and the negotiations with Arenado will no doubt be particularly in-depth given the huge money needed to keep him at Coors Field.  Arenado is scheduled to hit free agency after the 2019 season, when he’ll still just be 28 years old and in the midst of his prime.  Arenado and the Rockies agreed to a two-year, $29.5MM deal last offseason to cover two arbitration years, and Arenado has one final arb-eligible season remaining in 2019 due to his Super Two status.
  • “I’m not sure where the Josh Harrison stuff comes from,” Bridich said in regards to rumors connecting the Rockies to the versatile Pirates infielder/outfielder.  It should be noted that this isn’t technically a denial of any trade interest, though Harrison is perhaps a better fit on a team that could make fuller use of his multi-positional ability.  The Rockies have Arenado and DJ LeMahieu locked in at third and second base, respectively, so Harrison would spend most of his time as a corner outfielder if he did land on Colorado’s roster.  (Then again, given that the Rox did sign Ian Desmond last winter with the intent of using him as a first baseman, maybe we shouldn’t rule out any outside-the-box ideas in regards to this team.)

National League Notes: Rockies, Realmuto, Yelich, Taillon

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Dave Cameron of Fangraphs postulates that the Rockies need to upgrade more than just their bullpen if they hope to be successful in 2018. He wonders if their additions so far “haven’t improved them as much as prevented them from getting worse.” At first glance, one could say that Wade Davis and Bryan Shaw are probably improvements over Greg Holland and Pat Neshek, respectively. However, considering the low WAR contribution from relievers in comparison to other players, those upgrades seem marginal. The team still has big questions to answer at first base, and in the outfield, so although they seem to have the best bullpen in the NL as it stands right now, they need to make impactful additions in other areas or rely on significant improvements from members of their current roster. After all, projections have them significantly behind the Dodgers in the NL West, as well as St. Louis and Arizona in the Wild Card race.

Questions continue to pop up when looking towards the future. Cameron notes that the 2017 iteration of the Rockies worked in large part because Charlie Blackmon and Nolan Arenado provided them with over 12 fWAR at just $20MM between them. Unfortunately for Colorado, Blackmon is set to reach free agency at the end of 2018, and it would take a significant raise on his current salary to bring him back. The same is true for Arenado the year following. The bullpen contracts the team dished out this year will cost them something in the neighborhood of $35MM per season through 2020; that puts a significant constraint on their ability to retain their stars or further build through free agency. Cameron’s article raises some important questions about the Rockies’ offseason moves so far, and is worth a full read.

More news from around the National League as we approach New Year’s Eve…

  • Speculation surrounding Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto and outfielder Christian Yelich has been heating up lately, and Joe Frisaro of MLB.com reports that while the club is willing to listen on their two most valuable remaining trade assets, actually moving either player would require a “huge overpay”. Frisaro adds that the team is not looking to “water down” the return for either of them, making a potential salary dump inclusion of Martin Prado or Brad Ziegler less likely. MLBTR profiled Realmuto’s trade candidacy on Christmas Day, listing the Nationals, Rockies and Diamondbacks as good fits in theory. He’s projected for just a $4.2MM salary next season, and can be controlled through arbitration for two more years after that. As for Yelich, he’s been worth an average of 4 fWAR in each of the past four seasons and is owed just $43.25MM through 2021 thanks to a team-friendly contract extension.
  • Jameson Taillon had a tough battle with cancer last season, causing him to miss significant time during the season. But the resilient Pirates righty is feeling confident headed into the 2018 season, and Adam Berry of MLB.com has the inside scoop. “You spend time in the clubhouse and know we have a lot of good guys as humans that are extremely determined to get better,” Taillon said. He’s reportedly working on new pitch grips and developing plans for how to attack hitters in the upcoming season. Taillon finished last season with a 4.44 ERA, though his 3.48 FIP paints a decidedly more attractive picture of his potential.

Rockies Designate Shane Carle

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The Rockies have designated righty Shane Carle for assignment, according to the MLB Roster Moves Twitter account. His roster spot was needed for the team’s signing of closer Wade Davis.

Carle, 26, made his MLB debut last year in Colorado, though he saw only four innings of action. That’s too small a sample to tell much of anything, but he did exhibit a 94.0 mph average fastball.

As in 2016, Carle spent most of the year at Triple-A, where he worked primarily as a reliever after spending most of his prior career in the rotation. The former tenth-round pick ended the 2017 campaign with a 5.37 ERA with 7.3 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9 over 62 innings.

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