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Previewing 2021-22 Opt-Out Clauses & Player Options

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Next year’s free-agent class is a legitimately star-studded group even when focusing only on true free agents who’ll hit the market due to service time or an expiring contract. But the class has the potential to become even stronger depending on the play of this year’s collection of veterans who have opt-out clauses and player options in their contracts. Their performance over the next five months will determine whether they opt for another trip to the free-agent market or simply stick with the remaining salary guaranteed to them on their existing deals.

We’re about a sixth of the way through the season, so it’s worth taking an early look at how this group is faring…

Nolan Arenado, 3B, Cardinals (can opt out of remaining six years, $179MM): Arenado, who was always a better hitter at Coors Field, is yet another example of the manner in which home/road splits are overstated with regard to Rockies players. The 30-year-old is now playing his home games at Busch Stadium and still raking at a .279/.336/.507 clip with top-notch defense at the hot corner. Arenado has stated that he plans “to be a Cardinal the rest of the way” and said there is a “very, very high” chance that will forgo the opt-out clause in his contract. After the Cardinals tacked a year and $15MM onto the original five years and $164MM he had remaining on the deal, there’s less incentive for him to test the market.

Trevor Bauer, RHP, Dodgers (can opt out of remaining two years, $62MM): While some might balk at the notion of Bauer opting out when he’s guaranteed a whopping $45MM next year on this front-loaded contract, the opt-out wouldn’t really be about 2022 — it’d be about improving upon the total guarantee. Right now, if Bauer were to suffer an injury in 2022, he’d have a $17MM player option for the 2023 season. If he opts out this winter, however, he could aim to negotiate something similar to or greater than his original three-year, $102MM guarantee with the Dodgers. Bauer could still secure a huge salary in year one of a new contract but give himself a greater safety net against injury or decline. He also won’t have a qualifying offer to deal with this time and would be entering what most expect to be a market with more teams willing to spend. With a 2.50 ERA, 34.7 percent strikeout rate and 7.3 percent walk rate, the current NL strikeout leader is enjoying the kind of start that will make him think about it.

Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds (can opt out of remaining two years, $34MM): If Castellanos keeps hitting anywhere near this pace, that opt-out clause will assuredly be exercised. His age-29 season has kicked off with an outstanding .303/.346/.607 slash, and he already has 18 extra-base hits (nine homers, eight doubles, one triple) in just 126 plate appearances. Castellanos fizzled after a similarly electric start in 2020, so we’ll have to see if he maintains — but he’s one of the best hitters on the planet right now.

Charlie Blackmon, OF, Rockies ($21MM player option for 2022; $10MM player option for 2023): The Colorado fan favorite has come to life after a woeful start to the 2020 season. Over his past 13 games, Blackmon is hitting .319/.396/.447 with more walks than strikeouts. That surge still only has his season line up to .222/.328/.343 in 125 plate appearances, though, so Blackmon has plenty of work to do before he’d even consider opting out of a $21MM payday in what will be his age-35 season.

J.D. Martinez, OF/DH, Red Sox ($19.375MM player option for 2022): An ugly 2020 season had many wondering whether Martinez was beginning to decline. It seems safe to stop wondering. The first few weeks of the 2021 season have been some of the finest of JDM’s career; offense around the league is down, but he apparently didn’t get the memo, as he’s destroyed opposing pitchers at a .331/.416/.632 clip. His  10 dingers give him a share of the MLB lead. While there were some conflicting reports on the number of opt-outs in his contract at the time of the deal, MLBTR confirmed this week that Martinez has a $19.375MM player option for the 2022 season on his deal, so he’s controlling his own fate, so to speak. If he keeps hitting like this, why wouldn’t he test the market again (or at least parlay his performance into an extension in Boston)?

Jackie Bradley Jr., OF, Brewers ($11MM player option for 2022): The Bradley signing hasn’t panned out for the Brewers just yet. No one should be surprised to hear that Bradley has excellent defensive ratings through his first 260 innings in center field, but he’s hitting a mere .175/.242/.316 in 124 plate appearances. Bradley didn’t sign until a few weeks into Spring Training, and we’ve seen plenty of late signees start slowly in the past, but so far things aren’t going great.

Jurickson Profar, INF/OF, Padres ($6.5MM player option for 2022; $7.5MM player option for 2023): Profar hasn’t been anywhere near the hitter he was in 2020, slashing just .234/.333/.308 through 128 trips to the plate. The investment in Profar was always a risk. He was one of the least-productive hitters in the National League for the first month of the 2020 season and only salvaged his year with a blistering .375/.398/.534 showing in his final 93 plate appearances. That well-timed hot streak rather stunningly earned him a three-year guarantee and multiple opt-out opportunities, and he’ll need some more of that magic if he’s going to consider walking away from the $14MM he’s still owed beyond 2021. Profar is currently on the Covid-related IL for contact-tracing purposes.

Kevin Pillar, OF, Mets ($2.9MM player option for 2022): Pillar entered the season with a sub-.300 OBP for his career, and he’s not doing that mark any favors in 2021. We’re only looking at 66 plate appearances, but his .254/.288/.381 output looks more like his below-average career line than last year’s stronger showing. Pillar found a pretty frosty market for his services even on the heels of last summer’s .288/.336/.462 performance, so if he doesn’t turn things around at the plate, it wouldn’t be a shock to see him pick up the option.

Justin Wilson, LHP, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15MM club option/$1.15MM buyout if Wilson declines): Wilson has served up a pair of homers, walked five batters, hit a batter, and yielded a total of six runs in 8 2/3 innings. He also opened the year on the IL due to shoulder soreness, and his average fastball velocity is down at 93.7 mph after sitting at 95.1 mph in each of the past two seasons. A reliever with Wilson’s track record can turn things around in a hurry, but it hasn’t been the start he or the team envisioned. If Wilson exercises his player option, it triggers a 2023 club option valued at $500K over the league minimum, meaning he’d only do so with a particularly poor year on the mound.

Brett Gardner, OF, Yankees ($2.3MM player option for 2022; Yankees hold $7.15M club option/$1.15MM buyout if Gardner declines): The Yankees lifer hasn’t shown much life at the plate in 2021, hitting .190/.284/.238 in 75 turns at the dish. He has just one multi-hit game to his credit so far in 2021 and is being used in his most limited role ever.

Darren O’Day, Yankees, RHP ($1.4MM player option for 2022): The 38-year-old O’Day has been great for the Yankees through nine innings, but he’s currently on the injured list due to a strained rotator cuff in his shoulder. As long as he comes back and demonstrates his health, he should be expected to decline his option in favor of a $700K buyout. He’s only securing himself an additional $700K if he picks the option up — barely more than the current league minimum (which could very well rise in the offseason CBA talks).

Dellin Betances, RHP, Mets ($1-3MM player option depending on number of games pitched): Betances needs to reach 60 games pitched in 2021 for his player option to be valued at $2MM and 70 games for it to check in at $3MM. So far, he’s pitched one. It’s all but certain to be a $1MM player option on the righty, who may still take the deal given how catastrophic the last few years have been. Betances is on the 60-day IL with a shoulder impingement at the moment, and since Opening Day 2019, he’s totaled just 13 2/3 innings due to injuries.

Beyond this group, there’s also a conditional player option in the Mariners’ deal with left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. Seattle has until three days after the World Series wraps up to decide whether it wants to exercise a quartet of one-year, $16.5MM options on Kikuchi — a total of four years and $66MM. All four must be exercised together. If they do not make that sizable investment, Kikuchi then has a one-year, $13MM player option for the 2022 season on which he must decide.

At least based on Kikuchi’s career numbers in MLB, it seems unlikely that the Mariners would pick up their end of the deal. He’s compiled a 5.22 ERA through his first 246 1/3 big league innings. That said, Kikuchi saw a major velocity spike in 2020 that he’s actually improved upon again in 2021. Fielding-independent metrics were much more bullish on him than ERA in 2020 (3.30 FIP, 3.37 xERA, 3.78 xFIP, 4.34 SIERA), and this year’s current 4.30 ERA is respectable. He’s also sporting career-bests in swinging-strike rate, opponents’ chase rate, walk rate and ground-ball rate.

It’s still a long shot that the Mariners will pick up all four years on Kikuchi, who’ll turn 30 in June. However, that may simply set him up for a return to the market. It’s certainly plausible that he pitches well enough to command more than the $13MM salary on his player option but less than the four years and $66MM on the Mariners’ end of the arrangement.

Rockies Place C.J. Cron On 10-Day IL

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The Rockies have placed first baseman C.J. Cron on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to May 7) with a lower back strain, per a team announcement.

This ailment has been an issue for the past several days for Cron, who last played May 5. It has temporarily derailed what has been an impressive start to the season by Cron, a minor league pickup over the winter. The 31-year-old has been the Rockies’ most productive hitter with a .290/.394/.495 line and five home runs across 109 plate appearances.

With Cron down of late, Colorado has utilized Matt Adams and Connor Joe at first base. They only have 27 plate appearances between them this year.

Rockies To Activate Antonio Senzatela From Injured List

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The Rockies are planning to reinstate Antonio Senzatela from the injured list, manager Bud Black told reporters (including Thomas Harding of MLB.com) yesterday. The righty will start this evening’s game against the Padres.

Senzatela went on the IL May 1 with a right groin strain, so he’ll return after spending the minimum ten days on the shelf. He has managed only a 5.76 ERA/4.67 SIERA over his first six starts. The 26-year-old throws a lot of strikes and induces plenty of ground balls, but he’s one of the league’s worst at missing bats. Senzatela’s 13.1% strikeout rate ranks 131st out of 136 starters with at least 20 innings pitched this season.

Black also provided updates on a handful of other health situations involving the club (via Harding). Lefty Kyle Freeland, a longtime rotation fixture, hasn’t pitched this season after suffering a shoulder strain in March. He’s scheduled to throw four exhibition innings at the team’s Spring Training facility in Arizona this week, but a timeline for his return to the majors is still unclear. Infielder Brendan Rodgers will join Freeland in Scottsdale as he rehabs from a left hamstring strain. Colorado’s presumptive regular second baseman, Rodgers has also yet to make his regular season debut after going down in March.

First baseman C.J. Cron has missed the past three games because of lower back soreness. Black told Harding the club is still evaluating whether he’ll need a stint on the injured list. Signed to a minor-league deal over the winter, Cron has emerged as the Rockies’ most productive hitter in the early going. He’s off to a .290/.394/.495 start with five homers over 109 plate appearances. As a low-cost impending free agent on a 12-22 team, Cron will be one of the sport’s most obvious summer trade candidates if he continues to mash. The Rockies have turned to Matt Adams and Connor Joe with Cron unavailable the past few days.

C.J. Cron Battling Lower-Back Tightness

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  • Rockies first baseman C.J. Cron has missed the team’s last two games due to lower back tightness, and manager Bud Black told The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters that it isn’t yet clear if Cron will require an IL placement.  “We’re hoping it resolves itself the next day or two, to avoid the injured list…I think tomorrow and Monday are really big days when we evaluate C.J.,” Black said.  Signed to a minor league deal during the offseason, Cron has been a huge contributor for the Rockies, hitting .290/.394/.495 with five homers over his first 109 PA in a Colorado uniform.

Rockies Select Connor Joe, Option Jose Mujica

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The Rockies announced a pair of corresponding roster moves today. They selected the contract of Connor Joe from Triple-A, while right-handed pitcher Jose Mujica was optioned to Triple-A. It’s good to see Joe back in the Majors. The 28-year-old opted out of 2020 after being diagnosed with testicular cancer, writes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The Rockies like Joe as a possibility at first base or left off the bench. Joe was a first round draft pick of the Pirates back in 2014. Mujica will be a long-term rotation possibility for the Rockies, though he came out of the bullpen for both of his appearances this season. Elsewhere in the NL…

Rockies’ Colton Welker Receives 80-Game Suspension

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The Rockies announced Thursday that infielder Colton Welker has received an 80-game suspension without pay for violating Major League Baseball’s Joint Drug Prevention and Treatment Program. Welker tested positive for dehydrochlormethyltestosterone, a banned substance, Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post tweets.

Welker issued a statement in response to his suspension (via the MLBPA), saying in part: “I want to make it very clear that I have never willingly nor intentionally ingested any substance to enhance my athletic performance. Given the information provided to me by the Players Association and laboratory, the amount detected was so minimal that it would have no effect on enhancing my performance. I understand that a number of other players, like me, have tested positive for this metabolite at microscopic levels, and I intend to join them in seeking answers as to how this is happening in order to clear my name.”

A fourth-round pick of the Rockies in 2016, Welker has slashed .313/.364/.469 with 34 home runs in 1,409 plate appearances during his minor league career. The 23-year-old hasn’t played above Double-A ball, but he was set to open 2021 in Triple-A prior to receiving this suspension. Baseball America and FanGraphs are among the outlets that consider Welker one of the Rockies’ top 10 prospects, with the latter’s Eric Longenhagen writing that he could evolve into a “role-playing corner bat but the power/defensive spectrum shortcomings leave him short of a more regular role.”

Rockies Name Bill Schmidt As Interim GM

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1:41PM: The Rockies have officially announced Schmidt as the new interim GM.  As per the team’s press release, “Schmidt will oversee all aspects of the club’s baseball operations,” which would perhaps imply that Feasel will either return his focus to business operations, or simply that Schmidt is the top voice in all baseball-related matters.

1:05PM: Rockies vice-president of scouting Bill Schmidt is expected to be named the club’s interim general manager, MLB.com’s Thomas Harding reports (Twitter link).  After former GM Jeff Bridich resigned last week, there had been speculation that an internal name would take on the interim position, with Schmidt and assistant general managers Zack Rosenthal, Jon Weil, and Zach Wilson all floated as potential candidates to assume the role.

Schmidt has almost four decades of experience in pro baseball, beginning as a minor league coach in the Reds, Brewers, and Yankees organizations while also working as a scout with the Reds and Yankees.  After working as a crosschecker with the Indians for four seasons, Schmidt joined the Rockies in 1999 and has become a fixture of the organization, assuming his current VP-scouting job in 2007.

Harding notes that Schmidt has been in charge of the Rockies’ drafts since 2000, which is a positive sign given how much notable homegrown talent the club has been able to find over the years.  The larger issue, of course, has been how that talent has been been developed and utilized by a Rockies franchise that has struggled to put a consistent winner on the field — the Rox have topped the .500 mark just six times in Schmidt’s 21+ seasons in Denver.  Building around that in-house talent was Bridich’s largest pitfall as GM, not to mention his falling-out with Nolan Arenado (speaking of prominent homegrown Rockies stars) that led to Arenado’s trade to the Cardinals.

The Rockies announced last week that the interim general manager would run the team for the remainder of the 2021 season, with team president Greg Feasel overseeing the baseball operations department on top of his previous responsibilities running the business operations.  A search for a permanent GM (and possibly a head of baseball operations) will take place after the season.

Schmidt faces some immediate decisions, as the 10-18 Rockies are in last place and are the only NL West team with a losing record.  If the team decides to rebuild, Schmidt might oversee some of the initial heavy lifting, such as potentially moving impending free agents Trevor Story and Jon Gray before the July 30th trade deadline.

With that in mind, the 2021 campaign could serve as something of an audition for Schmidt.  Since owner Dick Monfort is known to value continuity and familiarity, it isn’t out of the question that Schmidt could be a candidate to become the full-time GM.  Given that the Rockies have long been accused of an insular approach, the Colorado fanbase likely wouldn’t be pleased at another internal promotion, as it has been widely speculated that the Rockies would benefit from some fresh perspectives and a new approach in the baseball ops department (and less interference from Monfort).

Rockies Release Ivan Nova

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The Rockies released right-hander Ivan Nova from his minor league deal last week, The Athletic’s Nick Groke reports (via Twitter).  It was a brief stint for Nova in the organization, as he only just signed with Colorado back on April 12.

Nova also signed a minors contract with the Phillies in January, but he was granted his release near the end of Spring Training since he wasn’t going to make the Opening Day roster.  Nova’s deal with Philadelphia contained an out clause, and it isn’t known if a similar opt-out was also included in his Rockies contract — given the timing of the release, it’s possible that Nova had the ability to opt out of the deal if he wasn’t on Colorado’s big league roster by May 1, for instance.

A veteran of 11 MLB seasons, Nova posted an 8.53 ERA over 19 innings for the Tigers in 2020, missing much of the season due to right triceps tendinitis.  The right-hander has been a reliable innings-eater for much of his career (tossing 187 frames for the White Sox as recently as 2019) and also delivered some solid results despite a big fastball and a below-average strikeout rate, as Nova has relied on soft contact and 48.9% grounder rate.  With a 5.07 ERA/5.23 SIERA over his last 206 big league innings, however, it remains to be seen if Nova can offer anything more than just innings as he enters his age-34 season.

Rockies Make Contact With Ruben Amaro Jr.

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The Rockies aren’t expected to hire a new general manager until next winter, but they have begun to sniff around potential candidates. Former Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is the first name on the public list, per the Athletic’s Nick Groke (via Twitter). Said Amaro, “I would have some interest under the right circumstance. I think they’re figuring out who would be a real candidate and who wouldn’t.”Amaro Jr. is currently a color analyst on the Phillies’ broadcast team.

Amaro Jr. took over from Pat Gillick as the Phillies GM in November of 2008 just after the Phillies won the World Series. Amaro Jr. would lead the Phils to another pennan in 2009, but ultimately, a very talented Philadelphia team with Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee, Jimmy Rollins, Chase Utley, and Ryan Howard would fail to win another title. They would, however, make the playoffs in each of Amaro’s first three seasons.

Amaro Jr. was particularly criticized for handing Howard a five-year, $125MM extension in 2010 that wouldn’t kick in for another two years at the time of the signing. By the time the extension started, Howard was 32 years old and coming off a devastating Achilles injury. Howard would hit .226/.292/.427 over the length of the deal. Amaro Jr., however, wouldn’t be around to see the end of it: he was let go in September of 2015.

As for his fit with the Rockies, Amaro’s perceived shortcomings somewhat mirror those of the previous Colorado regime. Amaro Jr. drew ire in Philadelphia for holding on too long to the World-Series-winning core and failing to get enough back for those players he did deal away, such as Lee. He also wasn’t afraid to spend big money on free agent relievers, though the $50MM Amaro Jr. used to sign Jonathan Papelbon was considerably more productive than any of the Rockies’ recent splurges.

Amaro Jr. didn’t exactly leave the Phillies empty-handed, however, as he was responsible for acquiring Aaron Nola and Zach Eflin, as well as players like Ken Giles, J.P. Crawford, Sixto Sanchez, and Jorge Alfaro. The latter group no longer plays in Philly, but they were the talent pool from which Amaro’s successors were able to replenish the team via trades for J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura, for example.

Of course, as the first name made public, there’s no indication that Amaro Jr. is anything more than one possible candidate in the first wave of potential applicants to become Jeff Bridich’s long-term replacement.

Trevor Story Leaves Game Due To Finger Injury

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Rockies star shortstop Trevor Story left today’s game after being hit by a pitch on his right index finger.  During an eighth-inning plate appearances against the Diamondbacks’ Chris Devenski, Story was hit in the hand and appeared to be in notable discomfort.  Story took his base and actually ended up stealing second as part of a double-steal with lead runner Garrett Hampson, but Story was replaced at shortstop in the bottom half of the inning.

X-rays were negative on Story’s finger, manager Bud Black told The Denver Post’s Patrick Saunders and other reporters after the game.  While this might not prevent a brief injured-list stint given the vagaries of finger and hand injuries, it’s at least very good news that Story appears to have avoided a more serious problem.

Story went 1-for-3 with a walk and a two-run homer in today’s 8-4 Rockies loss to Arizona, giving the shortstop a .284/.348/.520 slash line and four homers over 115 plate appearances.  It’s the type of strong offensive performance that has become common for the two-time All-Star and Silver Slugger winner, and between both his bat and his defense, Story will be a heavily-pursued commodity on the free agent market this winter.  (MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes placed Story fourth in the most recent edition of the Free Agent Power Rankings.)

Any kind of injury or potential IL placement is certainly noteworthy given Story’s influence on both the offseason market, and as a potential trade chip this July.  The Rockies dropped to 10-18 after today’s loss, and the recent resignation of Jeff Bridich as the team’s GM is perhaps a sign that Colorado is preparing for a change of direction and perhaps a selloff at the trade deadline.

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