Tommy John Surgery Recommended For Phillies’ Andrew Painter
The Phillies announced this morning that their medical staff has recommended an ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction (i.e. Tommy John surgery) and ulnar nerve transposition procedure for top pitching prospect Andrew Painter. He’ll receive a second opinion from Dr. Neal ElAttrache next week before proceeding with the operation. Assuming he indeed undergoes the surgery, he’ll miss the remainder of the 2023 season and quite possibly the majority of the 2024 campaign.
“Right-handed pitcher Andrew Painter has been undergoing conservative management for a right elbow partial ulnar collateral ligament (UCL) injury since March 2, 2023,” the Phillies stated in a press release. “While he was able to return to throwing bullpens and follow-up imaging has shown interval healing in his elbow, over the last few weeks, he continues to be symptomatic upon examination. Considering the timing of the season and that Painter is still experiencing symptoms, the Phillies medical staff has recommended he undergo a right elbow UCL reconstruction with ulnar nerve transposition surgery. Painter has a surgical consult with Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Monday, July 24, 2023 in Los Angeles, Calif.”
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski indicated last night that Painter was no longer being viewed as a rotation option for the current season, though at the time Dombrowski did not divulge this recommendation. Fans will surely be frustrated, given that Painter’s UCL injury was first diagnosed back in March, but surgery is always a last resort. As common as Tommy John procedures have become, a pitcher’s full recovery is hardly guaranteed. We frequently see pitchers take longer than 12 to 14 months to recover due to setbacks and/or return with diminished stuff. Noah Syndergaard stands out as one prominent recent example of both scenarios.
The Phillies consulted with outside medical experts back in March, and all involved parties agreed on a conservative approach with Painter, knowing full well this could be the eventual outcome. While certainly not unforeseeable, the setback is still a blow to the Phillies’ future.
Painter entered the season lauded as one of the sport’s top prospects at any position. The 2021 first-rounder breezed through three minor league levels last year as a 19-year-old, posting a combined 1.56 ERA through Low-A, High-A and Double-A. Along the way, he fanned a massive 38.7% of his opponents against a tidy 6.2% walk rate.
That huge showing not only catapulted Painter up national prospect rankings — it thrust him into competition to claim the No. 5 spot in the Philadelphia rotation this spring and make his MLB debut before even celebrating his 20th birthday. The spring elbow injury derailed that trajectory though, and Painter’s earliest path to the Majors is now likely in 2025. He’d require at least 12 to 14 months to recover from surgery, and the Phillies would surely be cautious with his rehab and any minor league innings next season as he builds back up late in the summer.
Given Painter’s injury and the struggles of left-hander Bailey Falter, rotation help could be a major focus for Dombrowski and his staff in advance of the Aug. 1 trade deadline. Falter opened the season in the rotation but has since been optioned to Triple-A. Fellow lefty Cristopher Sanchez has performed well in six starts since being given an opportunity, but the Phils have received less quality than hoped from top starters Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola and Taijuan Walker — all of whom have an ERA between 4.00 and 4.27. Ranger Suarez has fared a bit better (3.84 ERA) but also been limited to 12 starts due to injury.
The Phils have a solid quintet of starters right now, but the depth beyond that group is shakier. Adding a proven starter to stabilize things surely has some appeal — particularly if said starter is controlled beyond the current season. Nola is a free agent at season’s end and Painter isn’t likely to pitch until late next summer, so bringing in some help not just for this year but for next season as well could prove prudent.
Notable Draft Signings: 7/18/23
The first overall pick signed for a record bonus with the Pirates this afternoon. Meanwhile, Arizona signed their first-round selection for a $4.4MM figure. The other $2MM+ signees from Tuesday (scouting reports from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, ESPN and The Athletic):
- The Phillies announced a deal with 27th overall pick Aidan Miller. The club didn’t specify the signing figure, but Jim Callis of MLB Pipeline reports it at $3.1MM (Twitter link). That’s a little north of the $2.97MM slot value. A high school infielder out of Florida, Miller appeared on the top 25 players on each of the referenced pre-draft rankings. The 6’2″ third baseman is credited with some of the highest offensive upside in the high school class, though he had a relatively down draft year after injuring the hamate bone in his hand. He’s already 19 — older than the typical high schooler — but has significant power potential and a chance to stick at the hot corner. Miller bypasses a commitment to Arkansas to enter the pro ranks.
- The Padres agreed to terms with 25th selection Dillon Head, Callis reports (on Twitter). The Illinois high schooler gets a $2.8MM bonus, a little below the pick’s $3.17MM slot value. Head ranked 27th on MLB Pipeline’s pre-draft list but as low as 50th on Keith Law’s ranking at The Athletic. The lefty-hitting outfielder is an elite runner and a potential quality defensive center fielder. Evaluators are split on how much offensive upside he possesses in a 5’11” or 6’0″ frame. Head was a Clemson commit.
- The Royals went well overslot to sign second-round draftee Blake Wolters, according to Callis (Twitter link). A high school right-hander from Illinois, he lands a $2.8MM bonus that beats the $1.95MM value of the 44th pick. The 6’4″ hurler had a velocity bump into the mid-90s during his draft year. He’s credited with a quality slider and intriguing athleticism but faces questions about his third pitch. It’s a fairly common refrain for an upside flier on a high school pitcher. Kansas City liked Wolters enough to sign him away from the University of Arizona.
Dombrowski: Phillies No Longer Counting On Andrew Painter As 2023 Rotation Depth
Phillies top pitching prospect Andrew Painter has had an injury-plagued 2023 season. A potential season-opening rotation member, the highly-touted righty sprained the UCL in his throwing elbow in Spring Training. His rehab was set back a couple weeks ago when he experienced renewed discomfort and was shut back down.
Philadelphia expressed general relief about the latest testing on Painter’s elbow, saying his UCL was healing (via Matt Gelb of the Athletic). The soreness led them to back down his throwing program out of an abundance of caution though. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski suggested this afternoon they’re no longer viewing Painter as a key factor for the 2023 MLB staff.
“We’re not counting on him as depth at this time,” Dombrowski told Todd Zolecki of MLB.com. “Where he is at this point, he has tenderness [in the elbow]. He’s still dealing with that. I mean, you can just do the math. It just doesn’t make sense. I think basically as of a couple weeks ago when he had that [setback], in my own mind I thought that’s it for this year.”
While the Phils haven’t officially announced Painter as being done for the season, it looks unlikely he’ll make his MLB debut before 2024. Barring further setbacks, the 20-year-old still figures to enter next year as one of the sport’s top pitching prospects and a potential factor for the MLB rotation.
Relatedly, Dombrowski told Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman of the New York Post on their podcast that Philadelphia was open to adding rotation depth before the August 1 deadline. That’s no surprise; as Dombrowski pointed out, the vast majority of the league could stand to secure more pitching depth.
Philadelphia has a starting five of Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Cristopher Sánchez. Sánchez was a late entrant in that mix but has pitched well through six starts. In 30 1/3 innings, the 26-year-old southpaw owns a 3.26 ERA built on an excellent 54.1% grounder rate.
Dombrowski praised Sánchez’s performance and implied the Phils were happy with their current top five starters. However, he indicated they could look to fortify the depth in case anyone in their current group suffers an injury. Bailey Falter stands as the #6 starter. He has a 4.38 ERA over nine Triple-A starts after surrendering a 5.13 mark over 40 1/3 big league innings early in the season.
Cristian Pache To Undergo Elbow Surgery
Phillies manager Rob Thomson told reporters, including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer, that outfielder Cristian Pache is set to undergo surgery to remove a screw from his throwing elbow tomorrow. Pache is expected to return this season, though Coffey notes that Thomson said he’ll be out for a “few weeks” nonetheless.
It’s an unfortunate update for Pache, who was placed on the injured list Friday with right-elbow irritation. A former consensus top-20 prospect in the entire sport, Pache came up with the Braves before being swapped to Oakland in the Matt Olson deal. He struggled badly with the A’s last year, slashing just .166/.218/.241 in 91 games. That prompted Oakland to designate Pache for assignment during Spring Training this season before dealing him to the Phillies just before Opening Day.
Tomorrow’s surgery will be Pache’s second this season, as he missed six weeks after undergoing knee surgery at the beginning of May. In spite of those injury woes, Pache’s enjoyed the best offensive season of his career as a part-time player in Philadelphia, slashing an excellent .327/.365/.592 in 53 plate appearances while playing excellent center field defense.
With Pache now headed to the shelf for an extended period of time, Rookie outfielder Johan Rojas figures to get an extended opportunity in Pache’s previous role as a right-handed complement to lefty outfielders Kyle Schwarber and Brandon Marsh. The club’s outfield picture is about to get more flexible as well, as MLB.com’s Todd Zolecki relays that Bryce Harper is set to make his season debut in the field at first base during the club’s upcoming series in Milwaukee. With Harper set to spend time at first going forward, that will open up the DH for Schwarber more often, allowing the club to play both Marsh and Rojas alongside right fielder Nick Castellanos or open up space for an outfield acquisiton at the trade deadline.
Harper’s recovery from Tommy John surgery has been unprecedented in its speed, and it appears his return to the field will be no exception. In addition to beginning to field at first base later this week, Coffey adds that the Phillies haven’t completely ruled out a return to right field before the end of the season, with manager Rob Thomson quoted as saying the possibility is “on the edge of the table.” Such a move would seemingly be contingent on not only Harper’s health but also the moves the club makes prior to the trade deadline on August 1.
The Phillies have long been interested in adding a right-handed outfielder to the club’s current mix, and such an acquisition could create a logjam in the outfield between Castellanos, Schwarber, Marsh, Rojas, Pache, and the acquisition that would only be further exacerbated by Harper’s return to the grass.
Phillies Promote Johan Rojas
10:30am: The Phils have now announced the moves, listing Pache’s injury as right elbow irritation. His IL placement is retroactive to July 11.
9:20am: The Phillies are going to promote outfielder Johan Rojas to the major leagues, as first reported by Mike Rodriguez. The move is also relayed by Matt Gelb of The Athletic, who adds that outfielder Cristian Pache seems to be heading to the injured list. He also adds that Drew Ellis will take the roster spot of Josh Harrison, who was placed on the injured list during the All-Star break due to a right wrist contusion. Rojas is already on the 40-man roster but will be making his major league debut as soon as he gets into a game.
Rojas, 22, was part of the Phillies’ 2017-2018 international signing class and ascended to the radar of prospect evaluators in the years that followed. Baseball America ranked him the club’s #11 prospect in 2020 and he’s been in the top 10 in each season since. His speed and defense are considered his standout traits, and he has showcased those wheels by stealing 159 bases in 430 minor league games thus far in his career. Defensively, he’s mostly played center field but has also slotted into a corner on occasion.
His offense, however, has generally been considered a bit behind those traits. In 2021, he hit .262/.329/.417 in the lower levels of the farm system for a wRC+ of 102. Last year, he split his time between High-A and Double-A, slashing just .244/.309/.354 for a wRC+ of 83. Despite those tepid results at the plate, the Phils liked the overall package enough that they didn’t want to risk losing him in the Rule 5 draft and thus added him to their roster in November.
The Phils returned him to Double-A this year and the results have been far more encouraging, as he’s hit .306/.361/.484 for a wRC+ of 129, stealing 30 bases in the process. That strong showing will get him a shot in the big leagues, jumping right over the Triple-A level.
The club could have recalled more experienced players on their roster such as Jake Cave or Simón Muzziotti, both of whom are on the 40-man roster, currently in Triple-A and have already been to the big leagues. But it’s possible that this promotion is for a part-time role that suits the skill set of Rojas. The club generally has an outfield of Brandon Marsh, Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos on most days. Perhaps Rojas will take over Pache’s role, taking the occasional start in center while also serving as a defensive replacement or pinch runner.
The exact nature of Pache’s injury isn’t known, as Gelb only reports that it is minor. His upcoming placement on the IL can be backdated due to the recent All-Star break, so it’s possible that Rojas gets a brief taste of the major leagues before heading back down to the farm.
MLB To Open 2024 Season With Dodgers-Padres Series In South Korea
Major League Baseball and the MLB Players Association announced the “World Tour” schedule for the 2024 season. The ’24 campaign will kick off with a two-game series between the Padres and Dodgers in Seoul on March 20-21.
Those will be the first MLB regular season contests ever played in South Korea. The league had been slated to play four exhibition games in the nation — two in Seoul, two in Busan — over the 2022-23 offseason. That event was canceled, which MLB attributed to a contractual issue with a local promoter.
While the season-opening Korean set is the most notable development, the World Tour will also again take clubs to Mexico and the United Kingdom. The Rockies and Astros are slated for a two-game set in Mexico City on April 27-28. The Padres and Giants played there this April. MLB had previously announced a two-game set between the Mets and Phillies in London on June 8-9. The Cubs and Cardinals met in England last month.
Along with the three regular season series, MLB is sending the Rays and Red Sox to Santo Domingo for a pair of Spring Training games. The Dominican Republic exhibition contests will take place on March 9-10.
MLB and the MLBPA formed the World Tour program during the most recent round of collective bargaining. The league will schedule up to 24 regular season games and 16 Spring Training contests scattered throughout Latin America, Asia and Europe over the course of the CBA.
Big Hype Prospects: Salas, Merrill, Yorke, Hence, Mayo
We missed a week while I was on the injured list (back spasms sustained while diving back to first base). There’s much for us to cover. Let’s start with some high-profile Padres. While the draft is tempting, let’s look in on those guys as they sign.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Ethan Salas, 17, C, SDP (A)
139 PA, 6 HR, 5 SB, .259/.381/.500
When we adjourned two weeks ago, Salas was batting .208/.340/.286 in 94 plate appearances. An 82 wRC+ isn’t anything to sniff at when we’re talking about a guy who’s 17-and-one-month old playing in full-season ball. Over the last two weeks, Salas hit .371/.467/.971. Including a HBP, he has as many free passes as strikeouts during the span. Of his 13 hits, he bopped five homers, four doubles, and a triple. That adds up to a 240 wRC+ for the hot streak and a 133 wRC+ on the season. If he keeps this up for long, he’ll find himself playing against High-A competition before the season ends. He’s “on pace” to debut as a teenager – a feat he can accomplish as long as he reaches the Majors before June 1, 2026.
Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
300 PA, 10 HR, 10 SB, .280/.318/.444
Salas’ future teammate had to grind through a rough April before turning a corner. The Midwest League is a difficult hitting environment. His first month of play consisted of a .188/.247/.338 performance. In the three months since then, he’s hit .317/.348/.487 while making steady improvements. Lately, he’s found a power stroke. Since June 14, he’s hit six of his 10 home runs. Merrill isn’t expected to be much of a power hitter. His carrying trait is an advanced feel for contact. He rarely meets a pitch with which he can’t connect. His discipline lags a bit, though it’s not as if he’s Javy Baez. An unsubstantiated theory of mine is that his early-season slump was the result of contacting too many pitches outside of the zone. The theory fits what data I have available, though I haven’t discussed it with anybody who would actually know.
Nick Yorke, 2B, 21, BOS (AA)
316 PA, 9 HR, 6 SB, .275/.361/.453
Folks weren’t sure what to make of Yorke’s forgettable 2022 campaign. The industry had a little chuckle when the Red Sox “reached” for Yorke in the first round of the 2020 draft. After a superb 2021 season, everyone adjusted expectations. Then 2022 happened. Some evaluators stuck with their updated outlook and blamed injuries. Others pointed to his subpar defense and wrote him off.
Yorke has rebounded this season – perhaps not enough to make up for his defensive shortcomings. His current 122 wRC+ depends upon a .353 BABIP. He also has 13.0 percent swinging strike and 25.0 percent strikeout rates. Historically, prospects with similar statistical performances have been prone to stalling out in the Quad-A bucket. For now, we should view Yorke’s rebound as a positive development. Perhaps more distance from his injury-riddled 2022 will lead to improvements in his quality or rate of contact.
Tink Hence, 20, SP, STL (AA)
(A+) 41.2 IP, 9.94 K/9, 2.59 BB/9, 2.81 ERA
Hence received a promotion to Double-A at the beginning of July. He also picked up a hold in the Futures Game. The pitching-needy Cardinals surely hope Hence can remain in the rotation. Alas, though he doesn’t walk many hitters, he’s not known for sharp command. His breaking ball is a weapon. It’s expected he should join the many pitchers who have mastered manipulating breaking ball spin for different effects. He doesn’t have a consistent changeup. Taken with the errant fastball command and history of brief outings, the relief risk is palpable. That said, Hence has yet to meet a challenge he hasn’t mastered. His Double-A debut was the first appearance of his career in which he faced more than 20 batters (22).
Coby Mayo, 21, 3B, BAL (AA)
347 PA, 17 HR, 4 SB, .307/.424/.603
With a 176 wRC+ on the season, Mayo is one of the top qualified hitters in the minors. He’ll play his next game in Triple-A, ending a nearly 500-plate appearance stint in Double-A. Mayo has traits grounded in the 2019 juiced ball era. He’s a pull-oriented slugger who generates plenty of loft. As a right-handed hitter, he’s not an ideal fit for Camden Yards. However, his power is such that he could overcome the home field limitations. It will be interesting to see if Mayo can continue to run elevated BABIPs into the Majors as this is a hitting profile typically associated with low BABIPs. Hypothetically, if a franchise-altering talent is made available at the trade deadline, Mayo would go a long way toward securing a deal. They’ll eventually have to trade somebody they like.
Three More
Johan Rojas, PHI (22): The Phillies are angling to get Kyle Schwarber into the DH slot. The plan would involve Cristian Pache in center and Brandon Marsh in left. If Pache doesn’t work out, Rojas has a similar reputation as a superlative defender who might hit enough to create a lot of value. In 354 Double-A plate appearances, Rojas is batting .306/.361/.484 with nine homers and 30 steals. He’s on the 40-man roster.
River Ryan, LAD (24): The latest pitcher to pop in the Dodgers system, Ryan features a promising four-pitch repertoire. In the month of June, he tossed two five-inning no-hitters. His command hasn’t been particularly sharp. Even across those two no-nos, Ryan issued four walks and hit three batters. It’s thought he’ll eventually develop better command. If not, he has a relief floor.
Ignacio Alvarez, ATL (20): A ripped shortstop who recently turned 20, Alvarez evokes Yandy Diaz right down to the comical biceps, low-angle contact, discipline, and rare whiffs. The comparison is hard to avoid. He might just be the next Brave to skip the line to the Majors. He generally keeps the ball on the ground with an all-fields approach. He’s expected to eventually move to third base, though he remains passable at shortstop for now.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Phillies Place Jose Alvarado On The 15-Day IL
The Phillies announced this morning that left-hander Jose Alvarado has been placed on the 15-day injured list (retroactive to July 7) with inflammation in his left elbow. When healthy, Alvarado has been excellent with a 1.38 ERA and 2.33 FIP in 26 innings of work this season. With Alvarado joining right-hander Seranthony Dominguez on the IL, Gregory Soto, Matt Strahm, and Jeff Hoffman appear to be the top set-up options for closer Craig Kimbrel.
It’s unclear exactly how long Alvarado is expected to be out, but this is his second IL stint for the issue this season; Alvarado previously went on the shelf in early May for left elbow inflammation and missed a month before returning in early June. That being said, the Phillies are surely hoping for improved health from Alvarado going forward. The club signed Alvarado to an extension back in February that guarantees him a salary of just over $9MM in both 2024 and 2025. Given that, it’s of little surprise that Matt Gelb of The Athletic indicates Philadelphia is going to “take their time” regarding Alvarado’s injury.
Bryce Harper Exits Game After Hit By Pitch
Phillies fans had a scare earlier this evening as superstar slugger Bryce Harper exited today’s game against the Marlins after he was hit by a sinker from Marlins lefty Braxton Garrett. The pitch struck Harper’s right elbow, the same elbow Harper underwent Tommy John surgery on back in November. Fortunately, Harper appears to have avoided serious injury, as manager Rob Thomson told reporters (including Alex Coffey of The Philadelphia Inquirer) that x-rays on Harper’s elbow came back negative. That said, Thomson also noted that Harper’s still dealing with some soreness and his availability for tomorrow’s game is in question.
That Harper is unlikely to require a trip to the injured list is surely a relief for the Phillies. In 55 games since returning from rehabbing the aforementioned Tommy John surgery, Harper entered tonight’s game with a slash line of .287/.381/.392. While just three home runs and a .105 ISO are both unlike Harper, a typically excellent 13.5% walk rate has helped to buoy his production to an above-average 111 wRC+.
In conversation with reporters, including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com, Harper acknowledged his first half power outage, saying “I’m not where I want to be. I’m not hitting the homers that I want… I still feel like I’m having good at-bats. I still feel like I’m going out there and plugging along. We have a long way to go.”
Harper also noted that he was progressing toward playing first base, a goal he’s been working toward since before his season debut. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski added that the Phillies will know whether or not Harper can play first base down the stretch prior to the trade deadline on August 1, when Philadelphia seems poised to look for improvements. After a difficult start to the season, the Phillies have heated up with a 23-10 record since the start of June, enough to put them half a game ahead of the Giants for the final NL Wild Card spot.
If Harper will be able to act as the regular starter at the cold corner, the Phillies would be able to explore an addition to their outfield while moving Kyle Schwarber to DH. Mark Canha, Adam Duvall, and Tyler O’Neill are among the outfield bats who appeared on MLBTR’s recent Top 50 Deadline Trade Candidates list that could fit Philadelphia’s needs. In the meantime, Coffey notes that center fielder Brandon Marsh has begun taken reps in left field as the club explores the possibility of using Marsh in left, Cristian Pache in center, and Nick Castellanos in right. With two center field caliber gloves in the outfield, the Phillies could not only see a significant upgrade over Schwarber (-15 Outs Above Average) in left, but also help make up for the subpar glovework of Castellanos (-2 OAA) in right.
Latest On Andrew Painter
TODAY: Thomson told Matt Gelb and other reporters that Painter received good news in his tests, as the right-hander’s UCL looks to be healing. Painter will remain in shutdown mode while the Phillies continue to monitor the situation and until the elbow soreness subsides, but it seems as though there isn’t anything overtly wrong with Painter’s arm.
JULY 7: Phillies’ top pitching prospect Andrew Painter is headed for evaluation after reporting discomfort in his throwing elbow, manager Rob Thomson informed the beat (including Alex Coffey of the Philadelphia Inquirer). He’ll be shut down from throwing pending further testing, writes Matt Gelb of the Athletic.
Thomson declined to provide specifics on the evaluation or a timeline for when the club would have more information. The skipper did suggest he’s at least somewhat alarmed by the situation. “Well, I’m concerned,” Thomson told reporters. “You’re always concerned when guys are sore. We’ll know more after we get the test back.”
It’s an ominous continuation of arm issues that have bothered the right-hander for the bulk of the year. Painter turned heads early in Spring Training and looked to have a strong chance at securing an Opening Day rotation spot before his 20th birthday. He sprained the UCL in his throwing elbow midway through exhibition play, however, requiring a multi-week shutdown.
That obviously killed any chance of Painter breaking camp. The Phils still held out hope for a midseason return. The 6’7″ hurler was scheduled to throw to hitters this week for the first time since March. Once he felt some soreness, they modified that plan to have him throw a bullpen session instead. Painter came out of that with renewed elbow discomfort, necessitating further testing.
With more uncertainty regarding Painter’s timetable for a return to game action, the Phillies could face some urgency to add rotation help in the coming weeks. Gelb reports that the Phils have told opposing clubs they were monitoring Painter’s rehab before deciding whether to turn to the trade market for starting pitching.
Philadelphia has an established front four of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez and Taijuan Walker. They’ve rotated through various options in the final spot. Bailey Falter got the first look but struggled to a 5.13 ERA in eight appearances before being optioned to the minors. Matt Strahm got a season-opening rotation job while Suárez was injured. He pitched well, but the Phils have seemingly preferred to use him in the bullpen to keep an eye on his workload.
Left-hander Cristopher Sánchez has had the job of late. The 26-year-old has had a strong month, working to a 2.84 ERA on the back of a massive 55.6% grounder rate through five starts. Whether Sánchez keeps performing at that level could also impact the deadline calculus for president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and his front office staff.