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Padres Rumors

Yankees Notes: Kiner-Falefa, Judge, Center Field

By Simon Hampton | March 11, 2023 at 8:13am CDT

As youngsters Oswald Peraza and Anthony Volpe make strong cases to take over the Yankees’ starting shortstop role, there’s been plenty of speculation over the future of Isiah Kiner-Falefa. That speculation has only intensified as the Yankees have announced a series of injuries that’ll affect their roster over the opening few weeks of the season and beyond.

Kiner-Falefa is owed $6MM this year, and does appear to be lagging behind in the race to win the shortstop job. The Yankees have been giving him time at second and third base, and plan to work him out in the outfield this spring, which suggests they may view him as more of a utility player at this point. Yet the team already has the highly impressive Oswaldo Cabrera capable of bouncing round the diamond as a utility option, and he’ll only earn the league minimum in 2023.

Now, with the Yankees dealing with rotation, bullpen and outfield injuries to Carlos Rodon, Frankie Montas, Lou Trivino, Tommy Kahnle and Harrison Bader, it would make some sense for the team to deal from their infield depth to address other areas. According to Brendan Kuty and Chris Kirschner of The Athletic, the Yankees have had conversations with the Dodgers and Rockies over Kiner-Falefa. It’s not known the exact timeline or extent of those conversations, but it’s worth noting the Dodgers checked in on Kiner-Falefa early in the off-season prior to acquiring Miguel Rojas from the Marlins.

General manager Brian Cashman addressed the trade market to reporters, and while he didn’t specifically name Kiner-Falefa (or any other infielders), he certainly didn’t close the door on a deal involving their infielders before the start of the regular season.

“I would say typically trade conversations usually are a bit more serious in the second part of camp than the first part. I do know that’s an area of strength for this franchise right now in real time. So if somebody is looking for help, we wouldn’t be surprised if they’re knocking on our door,” Cashman said.

A trade could help them address their thinning rotation and bullpen stock, but even with Bader on the shelf for a while, it doesn’t appear the outfield is a pressing need. As Kuty notes in a separate piece, Bader’s injury likely means a temporary return to center field for Aaron Judge. That would allow the Yankees to give Giancarlo Stanton more at bats in right field, with Cabrera and Aaron Hicks likely to handle left. Rafael Ortega and Estevan Florial are other candidates to fill in with Bader out, but it appears Hicks – a career center fielder who moved to left last year – is not among them, with Kuty noting it seems the Yankees prefer to keep him in left.

Speaking of Judge, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic sheds some more light on the high profile free agency of the new Yankees captain. While it’s been widely reported that the Yankees’ decision to tack on a ninth-year and take the total value of the contract to $360MM sealed the deal, there’s been a little bit of uncertainty over the extent of the Padres late interest in the slugger. According to Rosenthal, the Padres put forward a deal in the range of $415MM over at least 12 years.

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Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees Notes San Diego Padres Aaron Judge Brian Cashman Isiah Kiner-Falefa

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Padres, CD Pelham Agree To Minor League Contract

By Anthony Franco | March 10, 2023 at 10:10pm CDT

  • The Padres agreed to a non-roster pact with southpaw CD Pelham, according to his transactions tracker at MLB.com. The 28-year-old adds some bullpen depth to open the season with Triple-A El Paso. Pelham has ten big league games under his belt, all of which came as a member of the 2018 Rangers. He threw 7 2/3 innings that year, allowing six runs on 12 hits. The South Carolina native has a 5.31 ERA over parts of six minor league campaigns. Pelham spent last season in the Cubs organization, splitting the year between Double-A Mississippi and Triple-A Iowa. Over 41 1/3 combined frames, he worked to a 4.31 ERA with a 23.6% strikeout percentage and a lofty 14.4% walk rate.
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San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Transactions CD Pelham Logan Shore

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Joe Musgrove Resumes Throwing

By Nick Deeds | March 9, 2023 at 9:25am CDT

  • Padres righty Joe Musgrove began throwing off flat ground yesterday, as noted by MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell. Musgrove has been held back with a fractured big toe on his left foot this spring, and has yet to land on his left foot while throwing, instead keeping both feet rooted to the ground. The Padres, who were planning to go with a six-man rotation to open the season prior to Musgrove’s injury, are surely hoping for his quick return to action, as the right-hander figured to be a key cog at the top of San Diego’s rotation this year alongside Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and recently signed Michael Wacha. Musgrove posted a 2.93 ERA (127 ERA+) with a 3.59 FIP in 181 innings of work last season, earning his first All-Star bid in the process. He’s entering the first season of a five-year, $100MM contract extension he signed last summer.
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Cleveland Guardians Los Angeles Dodgers New York Yankees Notes San Diego Padres Frankie Montas Gavin Lux Joe Musgrove Sam Hentges

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Mitch Moreland Announces Retirement

By Steve Adams | March 8, 2023 at 10:29am CDT

Twelve-year big league veteran Mitch Moreland didn’t play during the 2022 season, and the 37-year-old confirmed to Rob Bradford of WEEI.com that his days as a player are now behind him. “I’m retired,” Moreland said, noting that he’s enjoyed being able to spend the past year-plus with his family. Bradford adds that Moreland is currently in Red Sox camp to work with some younger players after getting an invite from chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and manager Alex Cora.

Selected by the Rangers in the  17th round of the 2007 draft, Moreland was in the big leagues just over three years later, making a strong impression with a .255/.364/.469 slash and nine homers in 173 plate appearances as a rookie. That strong showing set the stage for a torrid postseason effort in which a then 24-year-old Moreland batted .348/.400/.500 with a homer and four doubles, helping Texas advance to the World Series, where they fell to the Giants in a 4-1 series loss.

From that point forth, Moreland was entrenched as a big leaguer. He logged regular time in each of the next 11 seasons, serving as a slick-fielding, righty-mashing slugger in the middle of the order for the Rangers, Red Sox and — more briefly — Padres and Athletics. Along the way, Moreland won a Gold Glove for his work at first base with the Rangers and secured an All-Star nod with the Red Sox, who signed him as a free agent prior to the 2017 season and twice re-signed him in free agency — first for two years (2018-19) and then for another one-year deal (2020).

The 2018 season was a big one for Moreland not only due to his All-Star selection but also from a big-picture standpoint; while Moreland’s Rangers fell shy in consecutive World Series appearances in 2010-11, he reached the Fall Classic for a third time with the ’18 Red Sox and this time captured the championship that had twice eluded him in the past. As with the 2010 Rangers, Moreland played a big role in the Red Sox’ postseason success that year, slashing .294/.368/.529 in 19 plate appearances. That included a pinch-hit, three-run bomb at Dodger Stadium in the seventh inning of Game 4 of the World Series — a blast that jumpstarted a late-inning rally which saw Boston score nine runs en route to a comeback victory (video).

The Red Sox wound up trading Moreland to the Padres for a pair of prospects (Hudson Potts, Jeisson Rosario) during the shortened 2020 season. He scuffled through a small sample of 73 plate appearances before again heating up in the postseason, where he went 4-for-8 with a double. Moreland inked a one-year deal with Oakland that offseason but was limited to 82 games by ribcage and wrist injuries.

That proved to be the final season of Moreland’s playing career, and while it may not have ended with a flourish, it’s easy to look back and see a successful career —  particularly for a 17th-round pick. Moreland retires as a lifetime .251/.318/.446 hitter in the regular season. He slugged 186 home runs, 219 doubles and nine triples along the way, while piling up 1,020 hits, 527 runs scored and 618 runs batted in. As previously mentioned, he won a Gold Glove and was named to the American League All-Star team. Between his solid arbitration numbers and a quartet of free-agent contracts, Moreland made about $36MM in salary over the course of his 12 seasons in the Majors.

And, while many players go the majority of their career without sniffing the postseason, Moreland’s teams reached the playoffs in an incredible eight of his 12 big league seasons. He added on another 150 plate appearances over the life of 52 postseason games, batting .259/.329/.422 during that time. Congratulations to Moreland on a fine career, and best wishes in whatever lies ahead in his post-playing days.

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Boston Red Sox Newsstand Oakland Athletics San Diego Padres Texas Rangers Mitch Moreland Retirement

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Read The Transcript Of Our Chat With Former MLB Catcher Gary Bennett

By Tim Dierkes | March 7, 2023 at 10:03am CDT

Former MLB catcher Gary Bennett chatted with MLBTR readers for more than two hours this morning. Click here to read the transcript and learn more about Bennett below:

Gary Bennett was drafted by the Phillies in the 11th round in 1990 out of Waukegan East High School.  His MLB career began with a single plate appearance more than five years later, when he pinch-hit for the Phils against David Wells.  His first big league home run came in 1999, at the age of 27.

In July of 2001, Bennett was traded to the Mets for Todd Pratt.  A year later, he was dealt to the Rockies.

It was in 2002, at the age of 30, that Bennett landed regular work in the Majors, serving as Colorado’s primary catcher.  He then signed a free agent deal with the Padres, leading their ’03 club in innings caught.  After the ’03 season, Bennett signed as a free agent with the Brewers.  He served as the backup to Chad Moeller that year.

On to the Nationals in ’05, Bennett’s life as a big league mercenary catcher continued, this time with Damian Miller as his counterpart.

Bennett moved to the Cardinals for the ’06 season, working behind Yadier Molina.  The Cards beat the Tigers in five games in the World Series that year, and Bennett earned a ring.  The Cardinals retained Bennett for ’07, providing some rare continuity, after which he closed out his career with the Dodgers.

In the end, Bennett spent over 4,200 innings in the Majors behind the dish, catching pitchers such as Jake Peavy, Ben Sheets, and Adam Wainwright.  He also hit a homer off Sheets at one point, taking Dontrelle Willis and many others deep as well.  Memorable moments included walk-offs on back-to-back days against the Cubs in ’06 – one a single and the other a grand slam.

In 2007, Bennett was one of the players named in the Mitchell Report.  He owned up to his use of human growth hormone, later telling Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, “It was unethical, cheating, taking performance enhancement stuff.”

After Gary’s playing days wrapped up, he became a partner in a training academy called Slammers Baseball.  Other ventures have included medical device sales, real estate, and non-profit foundations such as CASA Lake County and Science of Sport.  The Bennetts also have three kids, one of whom played baseball at Mizzou and another currently playing at Illinois.  You can follow Gary on Twitter @gdbjr5.

Gary offered to chat with MLBTR readers, and we’re happy to have him!  Click here to join the live chat.

If you’re a current or former MLB player and would like to do a one-hour chat on MLBTR, please contact us!

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Colorado Rockies Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Player Chats Milwaukee Brewers New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies San Diego Padres St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals

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Conforto's Injury Was Fractured Shoulder Capsule

By Steve Adams | March 3, 2023 at 10:54am CDT

  • Veteran lefty Cole Hamels, angling for an age-39 comeback with his hometown Padres, is slated to throw his third bullpen session of spring training today, per Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. The goal is for roughly 35 pitches. Hamels and the Padres are aiming for the lefty to be built up to around 45 pitches before he begins facing live hitters, so there’ll likely be one more ’pen session in the coming days before he takes that step. Meanwhile, veteran outfielder Adam Engel has been slowed by a calf strain and has yet to get into spring games. Engel, 31, figures to be San Diego’s fourth outfielder if he’s healthy enough to take the field come Opening Day. Manager Bob Melvin indicated last week that Engel wouldn’t play in the first week of spring games, but the team hasn’t provided a formal update on his status since.
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Colorado Rockies Notes San Diego Padres San Francisco Giants Adam Engel Antonio Senzatela Cole Hamels Michael Conforto Peter Lambert Ryan Rolison

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Padres Likely To Explore Extension Talks With Josh Hader, Juan Soto This Spring

By Anthony Franco | March 2, 2023 at 11:57pm CDT

The Padres achieved their top priority of the spring over the weekend, agreeing to an 11-year, $350MM deal with Manny Machado to keep him from retesting the free agent market next offseason. That came on the heels of a summer deal for Joe Musgrove and a recent extension with Yu Darvish.

Even after that series of transactions, the Friars have a handful of key players slated to hit the open market within the next two years. Last summer’s marquee deadline acquisitions — Josh Hader and Juan Soto — are both deep into their arbitration seasons. Jon Heyman of the New York Post writes that San Diego is likely to soon be in contact with both players’ camps to discuss possible extension frameworks. Dennis Lin of the Athletic similarly wrote this week the Friars were likely to take a run at extension talks with Soto.

There hasn’t been as much speculation regarding possible Hader negotiations. It’s not a surprise that president of baseball operations A.J. Preller and his front office plan to at least check in with the four-time All-Star, though. Hader is one season away from the open market and joins Blake Snell as the top impending free agents on the San Diego roster.

29 next month, Hader has a chance of securing a record-setting deal for a reliever. He owns a sterling 2.71 ERA with an eye-popping 43.2% strikeout rate over parts of six big league campaigns. No pitcher (minimum 200 innings) has punched out hitters at a higher rate since Hader came into the league. He’s three percentage points clear of second-place finisher Edwin Díaz. Hader also leads the league in SIERA (2.13) and swinging strike percentage (19.2%) over that stretch.

Díaz is second in both those categories as well. The Mets’ closer became the first reliever in league history to top the hundred million dollar mark this offseason, returning to Queens on a five-year, $102MM pact days before free agency opened. Díaz signed that deal in advance of his age-29 campaign and coming off one of the most dominant seasons by a closer in recent memory. He fanned more than half his opponents en route to a 1.31 ERA in 62 innings.

Hader, on the other hand, is coming off arguably the worst season of his career. He allowed more than five earned runs per nine, including a disappointing 7.31 mark in 19 appearances after the Padres acquired him from Milwaukee. Hader was a bit homer-prone early in the season with the Brewers. While he got that under control in San Diego, his walk rate jumped a few percentage points towards year’s end.

Despite that wobbly conclusion, Hader still enters extension negotiations with strong leverage. He’ll play the upcoming season on a hefty $14.1MM contract after avoiding arbitration. The lanky southpaw remains one of the sport’s highest-upside relief weapons. Even in his relative down year, Hader finished sixth among relievers who threw 50+ innings with a 37% strikeout rate. He placed 18th in swinging strike rate and averaged a personal-high 97.4 MPH on his sinker.

Hader’s youth and career résumé still position him as the favorite for the largest contract among relievers in next winter’s class. Díaz’s deal serves as a reference for the kind of money Hader could land if he had a vintage platform season. The New York righty had some ups and downs in the years leading up to 2022 — including a 5.59 ERA in 2019 and a fine but not overwhelming 3.45 mark in ’21 — before reaching new heights last season.

Considering his hefty arbitration salaries and proximity to free agency, Hader isn’t under pressure to sign for below-market rates this spring. He told Heyman he’d “definitely” be open to extension talks but didn’t offer any indication he’d take a hometown discount. “It’s a great place to be, but at the end of the day, business is business,” Hader said.

Locking up Soto would be an even more challenging endeavor, of course. The three-time Silver Slugger is playing this season on a $23MM arbitration contract. He’s likely to approach or top $30MM for his final arbitration season in 2024 and is trending towards free agency over the 2024-25 offseason. Soto would hit the market before his age-26 campaign and is generally expected to command the largest guarantee in league history (although the intervening potential free agency of Shohei Ohtani could first set a new high-water mark).

Soto has already declined an offer for what would’ve been the largest deal in MLB history. The Nationals reportedly offered a 15-year, $440MM pact last summer. Soto passed, leading Washington to pivot to trade discussions that’d eventually culminate in one of the biggest deadline deals ever. Soto’s performance in San Diego after the trade — .238/.388/.390 with more walks than strikeouts through 228 plate appearances — was disappointing by his massive standards but still markedly above average.

It stands to reason the Padres would at least have to beat the $440MM the Nats were prepared to offer in order to convince Soto to bypass a trip to the open market. How high he and his representatives are aiming isn’t clear, though Soto told Heyman his camp is “open to talking” with San Diego brass. However, he also added that “every player wants to get a try at free agency and a chance to decide where they want to go and where is best for their family.”

The Padres project for the third-highest luxury tax payroll in the majors this season, with Roster Resource forecasting them just under $275MM at present. Long-term deals for Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Musgrove, Darvish and Robert Suarez already have upwards of $130MM on the books through 2027. Tatis, Bogaerts and Machado alone will count for nearly $100MM annually between 2028-33. That’s plenty of future money tied up, though it also reinforces how willing owner Peter Seidler and the front office have been to commit to star talent.

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Newsstand San Diego Padres Josh Hader Juan Soto

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Padres Notes: Bench, Musgrove, Payroll, Machado

By Nick Deeds | March 2, 2023 at 11:31am CDT

Following San Diego’s addition of second baseman Rougned Odor on a minor league deal yesterday, the competition to be part of the Padres Opening Day bench gained a new entrant. As MLB.com’s AJ Cassavell notes, the absence of Fernando Tatis Jr. while he completes his PED suspension and the possibility that outfielder Adam Engel isn’t ready for Opening Day as he works his way back from a calf strain open up new possibilities for players hoping to break camp as a member of the bench in San Diego.

One of the four spots on the Padres Opening Day bench is certain to be reserved for backup catcher Luis Campusano. As for the last three spots, Odor seems likely to compete with outfielders David Dahl and Jose Azocar, and utility player Brandon Dixon. Odor provides the least versatility of those options, as all but 259 of his career innings in the field have come at second base. By contrast, Dahl and Azocar both have experience at all three outfield spots, while Dixon has played all four corners and second base during his career. Still, Cassavell notes that Odor’s status as a lefty bat could give him, (and, presumably, Dahl) a leg up on earning a spot on the bench entering the season.

Assuming no additional injuries complicate matters, Matt Carpenter will shift to the bench once Tatis is eligible to return after the first 20 games of the season, while Engel will join the bench as soon as he is healthy. At that point, there will only be one spot still available on the bench in San Diego for the aforementioned quartet. Azocar, Dahl, and Dixon all have options remaining, though Odor does not.

More from San Diego…

  • Joe Musgrove, who is currently out of action with a fractured toe, is expected to miss at the least the first two starts of the regular season, according to Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Acee notes that it’s possible that without Musgrove’s contributions, the Padres may opt to go with a five man rotation to open the season, preferring to add depth to a bullpen that could be taxed more than usual without the durable right-hander pitching deep into games. Ryan Weathers, Adrian Morejon, Brent Honeywell Jr., and Cole Hamels are among the pitchers who could take Musgrove’s spot on the roster, though whether that spot will earn them a role in the bullpen or the rotation is currently unclear.
  • Even after signing Manny Machado to his second $300MM+ contract, the Padres appear to have no interest in slowing down, according to Dennis Lin of The Athletic. Given Padres owner Peter Seidler’s already unprecedented investment in the big league club for an organization of their market size, it’s difficult to predict where the limits on spending could be. Lin notes that the backloaded nature of Machado’s new 11-year, $350MM deal with San Diego could help the club pursue an extension with fellow superstar, Juan Soto. It could also assist in a planned pursuit of two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani should he hit free agency following the 2023 season as expected, even in spite of the fact that a deal with either player could cost even more than it did to extend Machado. Discussing his recent extension, Machado explains that a candid conversation with Seidler led to the contract eventually being hammered out. Seidler, for his part, says the Padres are “willing and excited about continuing to sign great players.”
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Notes San Diego Padres Brandon Dixon David Dahl Joe Musgrove Jose Azocar Juan Soto Manny Machado Rougned Odor Shohei Ohtani

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Padres To Sign Rougned Odor

By Steve Adams | March 1, 2023 at 11:59pm CDT

The Padres have agreed to a deal with free-agent second baseman Rougned Odor, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post (Twitter link). Odor, a client of the Beverly Hills Sports Council, has already arrived at Padres camp this morning, tweets AJ Cassavell of MLB.com.

Odor and the Padres agreed to a minor league deal with an invite to spring training, tweets Cassavell. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune adds that Odor still needs to pass a physical before the deal becomes official. That process will get underway shortly.

Odor, still just 29, reached the big leagues as a 20-year-old with the Rangers back in 2014 and, by 2016, looked like one of baseball’s best young second basemen. To that point in his career, he’d slashed .265/.302/.464 while steadily increasing his power output. Odor belted 33 home runs in 2016, offsetting a woeful 3.0% walk rate and .296 OBP with huge power, solid bat-to-ball skills and quality defense at second base.

That ability to make contact has waned over the years, however, and Odor’s production at the plate  has been dismal of late. Dating back to 2019, he’s a .201/.274/.398 hitter (78 wRC+). He’s begun to take more walks, but his 7.6% rate over the past four seasons is still below average. Meanwhile, his once better-than-average strikeout rate has ballooned to 27.8% since ’19. He did improve on that front with the Orioles last year (23.1%), but the 2022 season also included Odor’s lowest power output since his rookie season (13 home runs in 472 plate appearances, .150 ISO).

San Diego currently projects to have right-handed bats at third base (Manny Machado), shortstop (Xander Bogaerts) and second base (Ha-Seong Kim), as well as an all-right-handed bench (Luis Campusano, Jose Azocar, Adam Engel, Brandon Dixon). Odor will compete for a spot as a lefty option off the bench, joining non-roster veterans like David Dahl, Preston Tucker, Alfonso Rivas and Max Schrock in that regard. He’ll also give the Padres some depth during the World Baseball Classic, with both Kim and Bogaerts away from the club representing their respective countries.

The agreement between the Padres and Odor marks yet another reunion between a former Ranger farmhand and Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller, who previously was an assistant GM in Texas. Over the past several years under Preller, the Padres have also taken looks at veterans such as Jurickson Profar, Ian Kinsler, Nomar Mazara, Keone Kela, Mitch Moreland, Carl Edwards Jr. and Luis Sardinas — among many others. The current roster features former Rangers Yu Darvish, Nelson Cruz and Nick Martinez.

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San Diego Padres Transactions Rougned Odor

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Padres Extend Manny Machado Through 2033

By Darragh McDonald | February 28, 2023 at 11:20am CDT

Feb. 28: The Padres have announced Machado’s new 11-year contract. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune tweets that Machado will receive a $45MM signing bonus that’ll be spread out over the 11-year duration of the contract. He’ll be paid $13MM in each of the next three seasons, $21MM in 2026 and then $35MM per season from 2027-33.

In the short term, the backloaded nature of the contract and the distributed/deferred nature of the signing bonus will provide San Diego with some additional payroll flexibility, though the year-to-year structure of the deal doesn’t impact the luxury tax hit, which is still purely based on the contract’s average annual value. That said, the lower salaries up front will dovetail both with Juan Soto’s remaining club control (through 2024) and with the eventual decrease in salary on Yu Darvish’s more frontloaded extension.

Feb. 26: Manny Machado isn’t going anywhere. The star third baseman was planning to opt out of his contract after the season but will instead stick around, as Machado and the Padres are reportedly finalizing a new 11-year, $350MM contract. The extension begins this year and will run through the 2033 campaign, which will be Machado’s age-40 season. He gets full no-trade protection and the deal does not contain any opt-outs. Since Machado had six years and $180MM remaining on his previous deal, this new agreement will add five years and $170MM in new money for the MVP Sports Group client.

Machado, 30, initially signed a 10-year, $300MM deal with the Padres going into 2019, with that deal affording him the ability to opt-out after five years. That opt-out was looming at the end of the upcoming season and multiple factors made it seem like an easy decision for Machado. For one thing, he has continued to produce at an elite level, including a 2022 season that was perhaps his best yet. He hit 32 home runs and stole nine bases last year, finishing the season with a .298/.366/.531 batting line. His 152 wRC+ indicates he was 52% better than the league average hitter. He was also graded as eight Outs Above Average at third base, with his overall contributions leading to a tally of 7.4 wins above replacement per the calculations of FanGraphs.

In addition to that, the market for elite players has been quite strong this winter, with many players going deep into nine-figure territory. Aaron Judge got a $360MM guarantee, Trea Turner got $300MM, Xander Bogaerts $280MM, Dansby Swanson $177MM, Carlos Rodón $162MM, Jacob deGrom $185MM and Brandon Nimmo $162MM. Since Machado was going to have five years and $150MM remaining on his deal at the end of this year, taking the opt-out was the clear choice from a financial perspective and Machado was quite open about his plans to take that path.

It was reported earlier this month that the Padres were planning to get an extension done with Machado to prevent him from opting out, though the talks seemed to be in jeopardy as recently as a week ago. It was reported at that time that Machado’s camp had set a February 16 deadline for negotiations, after which point he would prefer to put contract talks aside to focus on baseball. The club apparently offered to add five years and $105MM to his deal, which was not enough to get pen on paper. With the deadline having passed, it seemed possible that the season would begin with the uncertainty lingering, though reports on Friday indicated that the discussions were continuing. It seems as though the Friars bumped up their offer enough to get Machado’s reps back to the table and hammered out a deal.

This will add another hefty salary to the long-term books of a San Diego club that has become surprisingly aggressive in recent years. They had never been among the game’s biggest spenders but have changed that reputation recently. In addition to Machado’s contract, they also gave out big deals to Eric Hosmer, Fernando Tatis Jr., Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish and others. The exact breakdown of Machado’s deal isn’t yet known, but these hefty and lengthy deals mean that the club will have something in the vicinity of $100MM on the books for 2028 already.

That increased spending has launched the club into luxury tax territory, having paid the competitive balance tax in each of the past two seasons. They are sure to do so again here in 2023, having been hovering around the third tier of $273MM in recent weeks. Recent reporting indicated that the club was narrowly below that line but it’s possible this deal might nudge them over for now. The CBT uses a deal’s average annual value rather than the salary in a given year, meaning we can figure Machado’s tax hit without knowing the full breakdown of the new deal. His previous deal came with a $30MM hit but this new one has an AAV of $31.81MM. Roster Resource now calculates the club’s tax number at $273.3MM. Those calculations are unofficial but given the previous reports about how close the club was to the line, it wouldn’t be a surprise if they were indeed a hair over now.

A club’s CBT status isn’t calculated until the end of the season, but given that the Padres are clearly in win-now mode, they will likely be in pursuit of upgrades at the trade deadline this summer. That means they are more likely to see their CBT number increase rather than decrease throughout the season. If they indeed finish up on the north side of that $273MM line, they will face increased rates of taxation but will also see their top pick in the 2024 draft pushed back by ten spots. It seems that owner Peter Seidler is more than willing to pay those penalties as part of making the Padres a competitive club both now and into the future.

For the any clubs that had hopes of making a run at Machado next winter, they will have to come up with other plans for next winter. Machado will no longer be a part of the 2023-2024 free agent class, which will be headlined by Shohei Ohtani and will also feature players like Aaron Nola, Julio Urías and Matt Chapman. For the Padres, they won’t have to worry about filling a vacancy at third base, with Machado now locked in for next season and another decade after that.

Jeff Passan of ESPN first reported that the sides were finalizing a new 11-year deal worth $350MM. Bob Nightengale of USA Today first reported that the deal begins in 2023. Dennis Lin and Britt Ghiroli of The Athletic first reported that there are no opt-outs and that Machado has full no-trade protection (Twitter links).

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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