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Cardinals Rumors

Quick Hits: Pujols, Wacha, Encarnacion, Kapler

By Connor Byrne | September 28, 2019 at 1:12am CDT

Unsurprisingly, Angels first baseman/designated hitter Albert Pujols has no plans to retire prior to 2020 or ’21 – the final two seasons of his 10-year, $240MM contract. Pujols, who will turn 40 during the upcoming offseason, told Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register: “Whether it’s tomorrow or in spring training, if I feel one day the fire is not there, it doesn’t matter how much money is left on my contract, it’s time to go. But I don’t see that happening. Because this year this is the most fun I had because I was healthy and I was able to do things I wasn’t able to do in the past.” Pujols underwent multiple surgeries a year ago, causing his season to end in August, but the future Hall of Famer has hung in there from start to finish in 2019. While his overall production hasn’t been good, Pujols has managed to hit 23 home runs, leaving him four short of tying the legendary Willie Mays (660) for fifth on the all-time list. If healthy, Pujols may have a shot at reaching the hallowed 700-HR mark sometime before his contract runs out. He’ll earn $59MM during that two-year span.

Elsewhere around baseball…

  • Still just one game up on the Brewers in the NL Central, the Cardinals might not even make it to the NLDS this year. If the Redbirds do get that far, though, it’s “unlikely” injured right-hander Michael Wacha will factor into their plans, according to general manager Michael Girsch (via Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). Wacha, who suffered a mild strain of his pitching shoulder Wednesday, won’t be able to pick up a ball for at least five to seven days, per Hummel. Fortunately, Wacha doesn’t have any structural damage, nor is this shoulder injury related to previous issues he has dealt with in that area. Manager Mike Shildt is optimistic Wacha will pitch again this season, but it appears that will require the Cardinals to advance to the NLCS.
  • Yankees slugger Edwin Encarnacion still hasn’t returned from the left oblique strain he incurred Sept. 12, and it doesn’t look like a sure bet he’ll play in either of the team’s last two regular-season games. Encarnacion said Friday that he’s not “mentally over” the injury, Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News relays. It remains to be seen whether he’ll be able to overcome the issue by the time the Yankees’ ALDS matchup against the Twins starts Oct. 4.
  • The Phillies have folded in back-to-back years under manager Gabe Kapler, leading to speculation that the club could fire him at season’s end. Kapler spoke about his status Friday, telling Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer and other reporters: “It’s not something I’m thinking about right now. It’s not something I’m worried about and haven’t had any conversations about it.” Kapler at least “seems safe for the weekend,” Breen writes, but the Phillies could choose to go in another direction after that. The Phillies finished 80-82 under Kapler in his rookie campaign as a manager in 2018, and even after an incredibly active offseason, they’ll wind up with an almost identical record this year. They’re an even 80-80 with two games remaining.
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Los Angeles Angels New York Yankees Notes Philadelphia Phillies St. Louis Cardinals Albert Pujols Edwin Encarnacion Gabe Kapler Michael Wacha

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Michael Wacha To Undergo MRI

By Steve Adams | September 26, 2019 at 9:54am CDT

Cardinals right-hander Michael Wacha exited what may have been his final appearance in a Cardinals uniform during the second inning last night due to what the team initially termed a “mild strain” of his right shoulder. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports that Wacha had difficulty getting loose in warmups yesterday and is now slated for an MRI to gather more information on the injury.

The results of the imaging will be consequential on multiple levels, as they could not only determine Wacha’s status for the Cardinals’ postseason roster but could have a considerable impact on the right-hander’s looming free agency. Wacha would presumably only be a consideration to make the postseason roster as a reliever — Jack Flaherty, Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas and Dakota Hudson would handle starting duties — but a balky shoulder could leave him on the outside looking in.

Wacha’s free-agent stock has tumbled considerably in 2019. Entering the year, he was coming off a 3.20 ERA through 15 starts in 2018 and a solid 30-start campaign in 2017. Wacha did miss half the 2018 campaign, but that was due to a pair of oblique strains on his left side — not an arm-related injury. As a former first-round pick and top prospect who was slated to hit free agency in advance of his age-28 season, Wacha would’ve benefited immensely from a continuation of the 3.82 ERA, 8.2 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 he’d posted over his prior 250 big league innings.

Instead, he missed a week early in the season due to tendinitis in his knee and has struggled repeatedly when working as a starter. The St. Louis organization has twice demoted him to the bullpen, only to return him to the rotation out of necessity, but the results haven’t been favorable in either role. Overall, he’s pitched to a 4.76 ERA with 7.4 K/9, 3.9 BB/9, a whopping 1.85 HR/9 and a 48 percent ground-ball rate.

Of all the red flags surrounding Wacha, though, this latest bout of shoulder trouble could be the most concerning. It’s been years since the shoulder caused him to miss time, but Wacha does have a history of shoulder troubles. A stress reaction in that same shoulder caused him to miss more than two months of his second big league season back in 2014, and he missed more than a month with shoulder inflammation in 2016. Even if the MRI reveals no major damage, Wacha may not have much of a chance to prove that he can continue pitching unencumbered by the shoulder discomfort, and a second-inning departure due to shoulder pain isn’t exactly a high point on which to set out into the open market.

Wacha is a fairly accomplished big league pitcher — he’s a former All-Star and NLCS MVP with a sub-4.00 ERA in 867 2/3 career innings — but despite having age firmly on his side, he’ll enter the offseason as more of a rebound candidate than a marquee free agent.

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St. Louis Cardinals Michael Wacha

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Health Notes: Turner, Kepler, Wong, G. Sanchez

By Connor Byrne | September 25, 2019 at 1:21am CDT

Nationals shortstop Trea Turner suffered a fractured right index finger April 3, and though the speedster made it back in mid-May, he’s nowhere near healthy, Brittany Ghiroli of The Athletic details (subscription required). The index finger is a “swollen, disjointed mess,” per Ghiroli, whose piece includes quotes from Turner and some Nationals teammates and coaches in regards to his ability to play through it. Third baseman Anthony Rendon, who revealed to Ghiroli that Turner also broke his right middle finger, is in awe of the season he has had despite the injury. “I don’t know how he does it. When I messed up my thumb or whatever earlier in the year, you can’t even hold a bat,” said Rendon. “You don’t realize you need to use all your freaking fingers, but he can’t, which is even more impressive.” The Nationals locked up a wild-card spot Tuesday with a doubleheader sweep of the Phillies. All Turner did was collect three hits, including two doubles, in Game 1 and then belt a go-ahead grand slam in a come-from-behind victory in the evening.

  • Twins outfielder Max Kepler has been dealing with left shoulder issues since Sept. 8, when he left a game against Cleveland after swinging awkwardly. The ailing Kepler hasn’t taken an at-bat in almost two weeks (Sept. 14), and it’ll be a little while longer before he does. The breakout 26-year-old is currently planning to make it back “no later than the beginning of a possible postseason series,” Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com writes. The Twins are on the verge of clinching the AL Central, so avoiding the wild-card game will give Kepler a bit of extra time to get ready for a first-round series.
  • The left hamstring strain Cardinals second baseman Kolten Wong suffered last Thursday is a Grade 2 tear, according to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. That likely sounds worse than it is, as Wong’s hopeful he’ll be able to come back during the Cardinals’ final series of the regular season. The Redbirds are closing in on a division title thanks in part to Wong, a .285/.361/.423 hitter with 11 home runs and 24 stolen bases in 549 plate appearances. His absence has enabled Matt Carpenter to get back into the Cardinals’ everyday lineup at third base, while highly productive rookie Tommy Edman has taken over for Wong at the keystone.
  • Yankees catcher Gary Sanchez is hoping to return from a groin strain this weekend, James Wagner of the New York Times tweets. That would give Sanchez a bit of time to tune up before the AL East champions’ first-round series. The slugger hasn’t played since Sept. 12, which has left New York’s catcher position to Austin Romine and Kyle Higashioka.
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Minnesota Twins New York Yankees Notes St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals Gary Sanchez Kolten Wong Max Kepler Trea Turner

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Adam Wainwright Set To Max Out Contract Incentives

By Jeff Todd | September 23, 2019 at 5:49pm CDT

When the Cardinals re-signed veteran righty Adam Wainwright over the winter, there was no shortage of second-guessing. But the move has worked out for all involved, as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Wainwright will max out his incentives package when he makes his thirtieth start on the year this evening.

The contract came with just $2MM in guaranteed money — a reflection of Wainwright’s subpar output in the preceding campaigns. It called for an array of bonuses tied to the volume of work he performed as a starter and/or reliever. As it turns out, Wainwright earned and held a rotation job all year long while only spending a brief stretch on the injured list. He was thereby able to tack on a hefty $8MM to his earnings for the season, the final $2MM of which is earned with tonight’s outing.

Wainwright says it all turned out as hoped:

“They would be incentives that if I hit that would be great for the team and they would be glad to pay me for it. And if it didn’t hit I didn’t deserve it based on what I’ve done the last couple of years. … That’s what I expected to do. It’s good to come through on things you expect to do.”

There’s no doubt the St. Louis organization is pleased as well. Wainwright didn’t just fill innings, he did so with aplomb. Through 162 1/3 innings, he carries a 3.83 ERA with 8.0 K/9 against 3.4 BB/9 and a 49.3% groundball rate. ERA estimators view him as much the same pitcher he was in the prior few seasons — as a roughly mid-4.00 true-talent performer — but Wainwright finally had a bit of good fortune in a memorable campaign that could be his last.

It remains to be seen whether Wainwright will look to extend his career past 2019. It seems reasonable to presume the veteran will want to return to St. Louis if he does desire to continue pitching. From the team’s perspective, it’s not hard to imagine a return again making sense in some scenarios. For now, all involved are surely content with focusing on the upcoming postseason run.

The Cards opened the present campaign with $162MM and change on their MLB payroll. Despite foregoing significant in-season acquisitions, they’ll end with over $170MM owing to the extra cash due to Wainwright. Just how high the tab has gone is hard to say, but it seems unlikely that the Cards will reach their end-of-year payroll highpoint ($182.7MM in 2017). Regardless, it’s money well spent for a club that’s headed back to the playoffs for the first time since 2015.

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St. Louis Cardinals Adam Wainwright

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Central Notes: White Sox, McCann, Yelich, Wong, Candelario

By George Miller | September 21, 2019 at 5:39pm CDT

White Sox catcher James McCann could represent an integral part of his team’s jump to contention, which might opt for a sort of veteran infusion to supplement a blossoming young core led by Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Tim Anderson, and Eloy Jimenez. As The Athletic’s James Fegan writes, McCann sees himself as one of the first veterans to steer the young club towards that next step. He compares his team to recent versions of the Indians and Royals, who rode young cores to World Series berths from 2014-2016 as McCann watched from Detroit. He’s enjoyed his best offensive season, riding a strong first half to an All-Star selection, though he prides himself in his game-calling and management of a pitching staff. His collaboration with breakout star Lucas Giolito, along with a strong showing at the plate, has earned him a spot in the Sox clubhouse for 2020 and beyond.

  • Brewers megastar Christian Yelich, who suffered a fractured kneecap after fouling a ball off his right knee, is showing signs of progress more than a week after the injury. Per Adam McCalvy of MLB.com, Yelich could be walking with crutches in about a week, with the possibility of running as early as the end of October. That’s not to say that he’ll be ready in time for a potential playoff return, however. While that doesn’t make the absence of the Brewers’ franchise player any more bearable, it’s encouraging that he’s making progress in his recovery.
  • The Cardinals are going to exercise caution with injured second baseman Kolten Wong, who tweaked his hamstring on Thursday while running. An MRI on Friday revealed that he didn’t suffer anything worse that a mild-to-moderate hamstring strain, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com. That’s encouraging, especially after a situation last year in which Wong may have made the same injury worse by continuing to run despite the strain. For fear of aggravating the injury, he won’t be able to play until he demonstrates that he can swing and field without complication, though Wong, who’s been one of the stars of the second half for the Cards, says he is feeling better so far.
  • Tigers third baseman Jeimer Candelario may be playing himself out of the Tigers’ future plans, writes Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. Thought to be the third baseman of the future when he was acquired from Chicago in 2017, Candelario has taken steps backward this season, with his wRC+ plummeting to just 67. The organization hasn’t completely given up hope yet, though the 25-year-old is running out of chances to rediscover his swing if he’s to stay on a Major League roster as a corner infielder. He hopes that playing winter ball after the season—something he wasn’t able to do last year because of a wrist injury—will help him get on the right track.
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Chicago White Sox Detroit Tigers Milwaukee Brewers Notes St. Louis Cardinals Christian Yelich James McCann Jeimer Candelario Kolten Wong

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NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Taillon, Taylor

By Steve Adams | September 20, 2019 at 8:58am CDT

With Kolten Wong unlikely to play for at least “several days,” the Cardinals will turn to Tommy Edman at second base and return Matt Carpenter to regular duties at third base, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. Wong is undergoing an MRI to determine the severity of a left hamstring strain he suffered in last night’s game, and his status for the remainder of the Cardinals’ season is up in the air at the moment. The 24-year-old Edman is the latest in a seemingly ceaseless parade of largely unheralded Cardinals prospects to immediately emerge as an impact contributor in St. Louis. A sixth-round pick in 2016, he’s never sniffed a Top 100 ranking, entering the season 12th among Cards prospects at Baseball America and 20th at Fangraphs. But Edman has hit at a .289/.325/.481 clip with 10 homers, 15 doubles, five triples, 13 steals and a 17.9 percent strikeout rate through his first 83 MLB games (302 plate appearances). He’d supplanted the struggling Carpenter as the Cards’ primary third baseman but will now slide over to second base, where he’s logged 857 minor league innings in his pro career.

More from the division…

  • Pirates righty Jameson Taillon is taking as optimistic an approach to his second Tommy John surgery as possible, writes Adam Berry of MLB.com. The right-hander feels that he used the downtime from his first surgery in 2014 to improve other areas of his game and believes he can do the same this time around. “I’m seriously confident I’m going to find a way to get better from this one,” said Taillon. “Whether it’s mechanics, how can I take stress off my elbow, how can I get stronger, how can I age better, how can I dive into analytics and video.” Taillon acknowledged that he lost “a lot, a lot, a lot of money” because of the timing of the injury, which came on the heels of his first trip through arbitration and will wipe out his entire second year of arbitration. However, the 27-year-old also said he hopes to pitch for another seven or eight seasons upon returning from surgery and isn’t focusing on the more short-term financial ramifications.
  • Brewers outfielder Tyrone Taylor had already gone home for the season and was in the process of applying for an offseason job with FedEx when he got the news that he’d instead be joining the MLB club, Robert Murray of The Athletic writes (subscription required). Taylor’s career has been filled with ups and downs, but after a series of injuries and poor performances, he put himself back on the map with a strong 2018 showing that landed him on Milwaukee’s 40-man roster. He’s been limited to a pinch-hitting role thus far but relishes the opportunity to not only be in the dugout for a playoff race but also to pick the brain of veterans players like Christian Yelich on a daily basis. “You want rookies feeling comfortable and welcome,” Yelich said of his talks with Taylor. “All of that is creating a culture – a winning culture.”
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Milwaukee Brewers Notes Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Jameson Taillon Kolten Wong Tommy Edman Tyrone Taylor

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Kolten Wong Suffers Hamstring Strain

By Connor Byrne | September 19, 2019 at 10:38pm CDT

10:38pm: Wong has a mild hamstring strain, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch reports. He’ll undergo an MRI on Friday.

8:29pm: The NL Central-leading Cardinals suffered a notable injury during their game against the Cubs on Thursday. Second baseman Kolten Wong departed with a left hamstring issue, as Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune was among those to report. He’s day-to-day. The Cardinals shifted third baseman Tommy Edman to second in place of Wong and plugged in Matt Carpenter at the hot corner.

The Cardinals, who lead the Cubs in their current matchup as of this writing, entered Thursday with a three-game advantage in the division. Their success has come thanks in part to Wong, who has racked up 3.7 fWAR and slashed .285/.361/.423 with 11 home runs and 24 stolen bases (28 attempts) across 549 plate appearances. He’s clearly not someone St. Louis wants to go without for any period of time as it attempts to earn its first division title since 2015.

If the Redbirds do lose Wong beyond Thursday, it seems they’ll continue with the hot-hitting rookie Edman at the keystone and Carpenter at third. Carpenter’s a longtime Cardinals star, but he has endured a surprisingly mediocre campaign in 2019 and fallen behind Edman on the team’s late-season depth chart at the hot corner.

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St. Louis Cardinals Kolten Wong

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NL Notes: Carpenter, Phillies, Pirates, Cubs

By Connor Byrne | September 19, 2019 at 12:26am CDT

The Cardinals look to be on their way to an NL Central title, but their 2019 success has come in spite of an uncharacteristically pedestrian year from third baseman Matt Carpenter. With the Cardinals trying to hold on in their division, Carpenter has taken a backseat to rookie Tommy Edman at the hot corner. While Carpenter did start there Wednesday in the Cardinals’ win over the Nationals, Edman has made twice as many starts this month (12 to six). Carpenter discussed his decrease in playing time with Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, acknowledging that Edman’s “got to play every day.” Although Carpenter went on to admit that dropping in the pecking order has been difficult, he added: “I understand part of what’s happening. Guys have played well and deserve to be in there. We’re winning and, at the end of the day, that’s ultimately what’s most important.” There’s still time for Carpenter to reemerge this year, but it’ll be interesting to see how the Cardinals handle him in the offseason if they’re convinced Edman’s the answer at third. A trade would be tough to put together, as Carpenter has two guaranteed years and $39MM coming his way after signing an extension in April. The three-time All-Star’s deal also includes a no-trade clause.

More from the NL…

  • Outfielder Nick Williams’ time with the Phillies seems likely to end when the Phillies’ season concludes, Matt Breen of the Philadelphia Inquirer writes. It’s clear Williams, once a touted prospect, has fallen out of favor with the organization. Even though the Phillies have been facing multiple injuries in their outfield, Williams still hasn’t been able to crack their lineup, as his most recent at-bat came Sept. 2. While Williams did thrive at the Triple-A level this year, he has stumbled to a dreadful.157/.204/.255 line in 108 major league plate appearances in 2019. Williams will still have a minor league option remaining after this season, but it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Phillies remove him from their 40-man roster then. It would be an unceremonious ending to a once-promising Philly tenure for Williams, who joined the club in 2015 as part of the package it received from Texas for Cole Hamels.
  • Injured Pirates Josh Bell and Starling Marte are hoping to return this season, though it’s unlikely either will be ready until next week, Adam Berry of MLB.com writes. Bell has been out since Sept. 13 with a left groin strain, while Marte hasn’t appeared since the 10th on account of a sprained left wrist. In what has turned into a nightmare of a season for the Pirates both on and off the field, Bell and Marte have been among their few bright lights. If the 27-year-old Bell does come back in the season’s final days, he’ll try to make a last-second run at the 40-home run mark. Bell’s sitting at 37 dingers and a .277/.367/.569 line over 613 trips to the plate. Marte, 30, has posted his sixth season with at least 3.0 fWAR, thanks in part to a .295/.342/.503 line through 586 PA. This is also the second 20-20 campaign in a row for Marte, who has swatted 23 HRs and racked up 25 steals.
  • Cubs reliever Brandon Kintzler has dealt with a mild oblique strain for a month and hasn’t pitched since Sept. 10. However, Kintzler said he had a “great day” throwing from a mound Wednesday, and pitching coach Tommy Hottovy indicated the right-hander could return as early as Sunday (via Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times). If true, Kintzler (as well as the returning Craig Kimbrel) could help bolster the Cubs’ bullpen as the team tries to earn a playoff spot. Chicago’s relief corps took the loss against Cincinnati on Wednesday, leaving the Cubs in a tie with the Brewers for the NL’s second wild-card position.
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Chicago Cubs Notes Philadelphia Phillies Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Brandon Kintzler Josh Bell Nick Williams Starling Marte

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NL Notes: Vazquez, Crick, Tomas, Nats, Cardinals

By Connor Byrne | September 13, 2019 at 1:29am CDT

Pirates closer Felipe Vazquez initiated the fight he and teammate Kyle Crick engaged in Monday, Nubyjas Wilborn of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. The altercation began when Crick declined to turn off music that was playing at his locker when Vazquez asked him to, according to Wilborn. Vazquez then threw the initial punch at Crick after challenging Crick to hit him first. Both players wound up suffering injuries – Crick had to undergo season-ending finger surgery, while Vazquez needed stitches on his nose – and incurring team-imposed fines. The Pirates docked Vazquez $10K and Crick $2,500, but Crick told Wilborn he’s filing a grievance because he was acting in self-defense. “If we were on the street, this would’ve been assault,” Crick said. “I got swung at twice before I swung back.”

As Pittsburgh nears the end of an increasingly disastrous season, let’s check in on a few other NL clubs…

  • Diamondbacks outfielder Yasmany Tomas has owned one of the richest contracts in the organization since he signed a six-year, $68.5MM pact out of Cuba in December 2014. Tomas hasn’t lived up to the considerable hype that accompanied the deal, though, and has spent almost the entire past two seasons at the Triple-A level as a result. As Zach Buchanan of The Athletic explains (subscription required), it doesn’t seem Tomas’ situation will change as he closes out his contract in 2020. Tomas will collect a $17MM salary no matter where he plays next year, but agent Jay Alou told Buchanan that his client is “frustrated” with his status and wants to return to the game’s highest level. That’s probably not going to happen in Arizona, however, in part because the team has concerns over Tomas’ outfield defense. Furthermore, Buchanan writes that the 28-year-old is way down the organizational pecking order at first base, leaving him without an obvious position in a league devoid of a DH. Worsening matters for Tomas, finding a trade partner for an expensive, defensively weak slugger who hasn’t produced much at the plate would be a difficult task for the Diamondbacks. Nevertheless, Alou’s surprised the D-backs haven’t gotten someone to take Tomas. “I just find it difficult there isn’t a team out there willing to pay a little bit of it,” Alou said of his contract.
  • Nationals first baseman Matt Adams left the team’s game Thursday with a tweaked triceps, Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post tweets. The Nationals should know more on Adams’ status Friday. Should Adams miss time, Washington would be without half of its typical first base platoon (Ryan Zimmerman’s the other member). While Adams has provided the Nats’ offense with 20 home runs, he has nonetheless hit just .226/.278/.475 through 320 plate appearances.
  • Standout Cardinals prospect Dylan Carlson had been set to play in the Arizona Fall League this year, but that plan has changed, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak told Mark Saxon of The Athletic. The soon-to-be 21-year-old outfielder will instead stay in his native California to “work on adding strength,” Saxon writes, as Mozeliak doesn’t think there’s anything more for Carlson to accomplish on the field this season. Carlson, who tore up Double-A and Triple-A this year, could be on the fast track to a major league promotion in early 2020.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Notes Pittsburgh Pirates St. Louis Cardinals Washington Nationals Dylan Carlson Felipe Vazquez Kyle Crick Matt Adams Yasmany Tomas

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Ozuna: Returning To Cardinals Is “My Priority”

By Steve Adams | September 10, 2019 at 9:20am CDT

Marcell Ozuna will be a free agent for the first time in his career this winter, but the slugging corner outfielder doesn’t sound eager to play elsewhere next season. Asked by Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch about a possible return to the Cardinals in 2020 and beyond, Ozuna candidly replied: “That’s my priority. My agents just have to do their job.”

It’s not the first time that Ozuna has voiced a preference to remain with the Cardinals, but his most recent statements were more emphatic than previous comments on the matter. Hummel also chats with Ozuna about the excitement over his first pennant race before talking with Adam Wainwright about the team’s young arms, so Cards fans will want to check out the column in its entirety.

Ozuna will have age on his side in free agency, as he won’t turn 29 until November. He also may have rediscovered the pop he lost during a 2018 season that was marred by shoulder troubles; Ozuna slugged 37 homers with a .237 isolated power mark (slugging percentage minus batting average) in 2017 but managed to connect on just 23 round-trippers with a .153 ISO in 2018. This year, he’s batted at a .255/.333/.496 clip with 26 home runs and a .241 ISO through 465 plate appearances (but missed time due to fractured fingers). He’s also walking at a career-best 10.4 percent clip and has swiped a career-best 12 bases in just 13 attempts.

The Cardinals (and other interested suitors) will be tasked with determining whether improved health in Ozuna’s shoulder led to that restored pop or whether the reemergence of his power stroke is more closely linked to changes to the composition of the 2019 baseball that have resulted in a league-wide home run boom. Both have probably contributed to some degree, but each team could figures to have a varying view on the extent to which each of those factors has impacted Ozuna’s output. Those opinions and projections will inform the strength of offers he receives on the open market.

Another critical factor for Ozuna will be draft-pick compensation, as it seems probable that the Cardinals will issue him a one-year qualifying offer. This year’s QO will fall around the $18MM mark, but Ozuna and his reps at MDR Sports Management will likely feel that a more substantial guarantee awaits in free agency (even if it’s not quite at such a hefty annual value). Ozuna’s $12.25MM salary for the 2019 season has pushed his career earnings north of $26MM, giving him plenty of financial security if and when he declines the QO and explores the open market. Ozuna checked in at No. 8 on the July update to MLBTR’s Free Agent Power Rankings.

Of course, it takes two sides to make a deal, and looking at the situation from the Cardinals’ vantage point, it’s less clear that an Ozuna reunion will be a priority. Dexter Fowler is still owed $33MM through 2021 (including the annualized payouts of his deferred signing bonus), and his $82.5MM contract included full no-trade protection. As such, he’s unlikely to be moved and can be expected to hold down one of the outfield spots in 2020 with a fair degree of regularity. Meanwhile, 24-year-old slugger Tyler O’Neill seems ready for a legitimate audition in left field, even if his strikeout issues remain a concern. St. Louis also has one of the game’s premier defenders in center (Harrison Bader), one of the game’s best outfield prospects (Dylan Carlson) and a slew of utility options/part-time outfield options.

Re-signing Ozuna could allow president of baseball operations John Mozeliak and general manager Mike Girsch the opportunity to trade from that impressive crop of outfield talent, but there’s an easy argument that the Cards are better off taking the draft pick and allocating those financial resources elsewhere. Both Wainwright and Michael Wacha will be free agents at season’s end — Wacha tells Hummel he’d also like to return — and the bullpen has been an ongoing need in St. Louis despite considerable front-office efforts to improve it. The Cardinals already have $139MM committed to the 2020 season, not including modest first-time arbitration raises for righties John Gant and John Brebbia. This year’s payroll sits at roughly $165MM, so it’d certainly be defensible to see them forgo a weighty annual salary for Ozuna and spend their remaining dollars to bolster the pitching staff.

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St. Louis Cardinals Marcell Ozuna

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