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Cardinals Notes: Winn, Gray, Romero, Additional Hires

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Cardinals shortstop Masyn Winn had surgery to remove a cyst from his hand following the season, president of baseball operations John Mozeliak revealed at yesterday at a press conference to introduce new hitting coach Brant Brown and new assistant GM Rob Cerfolio (X link via John Denton of MLB.com). Winn recently had the stitches removed, and the minor procedure isn’t expected to impact his offseason routine.

The 22-year-old Winn was a bright spot in a lackluster season that has prompted the Cardinals to step back, focus on player development and embark on something of a reset. They’re widely expected to listen to offers on various veterans this offseason, and Mozeliak has already stated that the club’s payroll will go down next year.

None of the Cardinals’ 2024 shortcomings can be pinned on Winn. The budding star played his first full big league season and turned in a solid .267/.314/.416 batting line with 15 homers, 32 doubles, five triples and 11 stolen bases (in 16 attempts). He fanned in a well below-average 17.1% of his plate appearances and coupled that sound offensive game with excellent glovework at shortstop. Winn slumped badly in the season’s final month (.196/.234/.382) but was hitting .283/.330/.424 through Sept. 1. It’s not clear if the cyst hampered his swing down the stretch, but it won’t be an issue going forward one way or the other.

Elsewhere on the injury front, Mozeliak provided encouraging updates on right-hander Sonny Gray and left-handed reliever JoJo Romero (X link via Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat). Gray finished the 2024 season on the injured list due to right forearm inflammation but is expected to have a normal offseason. Like Gray, Romero finished the season on the shelf due to inflammation in his flexor tendon. He’s just now progressing to a throwing program that will dictate how the rest of his offseason plays out. The Cardinals don’t anticipate any additional surgeries beyond Winn’s minor procedure, according to Mozeliak.

The health of both Gray and Romero is of extra intrigue, given the Cardinals’ shift in direction. Both veterans could be candidates to be traded over the winter. Gray is entering the second season of a three-year, $75MM contract and will have his say over where or whether he’s moved, as that pact included a full no-trade provision. That, coupled with the backloaded nature of the contract, could make him a tricky trade candidate. He earned $10MM of his $75MM guarantee this past season. He’ll be paid $25MM in 2025 and $35MM in 2026, with a $5MM buyout on an option for the 2027 season. Gray, the AL Cy Young runner-up with the Twins in 2023, pitched to a 3.84 ERA in 166 1/3 innings with St. Louis this past season.

Romero is a more straightforward case. The 28-year-old is arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter — projected for a $1.9MM salary by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz — and is under  club control for another two seasons. He’s coming off a career-best 3.36 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate, a 6.6% walk rate, a 48.8% ground-ball rate and 30 holds. Romero was unhittable against lefties (.181/.244/.250) but yielded a far less encouraging .264/.329/.466 line to right-handers. Still, as an affordable and relatively controllable lefty who averages 95.1 mph on his heater and is no stranger to high-leverage spots, he’d surely draw interest as the Cardinals look to boost their farm system.

Changes throughout the Cardinals organization are just getting started. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the newly hired Cerfolio will now be tasked with hiring a new director of performance and a new farm director. Cerfolio will assist Chaim Bloom in leading both departments. Goold notes that the player development and player performance departments were previously separate entities but will be more cohesive.

“It never got to the point where we got to the point it was running at 100% in terms of collaboration,” Mozeliak said of the prior player development and player performance setup. Goold’s piece includes quotes from Mozeliak on the additions of Cerfolio, Brown and outfield coach Jon Jay, detailing what drew the Cardinals to each and also further laying out the plans for additional hires. Cards fans will want to give it a read for a full preview of what’s to come in the weeks and months ahead.

With regard to the roster itself, it’s increasingly clear what direction the Cardinals will take this winter with every media availability from their decision-makers. Mozeliak has already informed several of the team’s veterans of a plan to field a younger club, Denton tweets. “Ultimately, the direction that we’re going to be going, it’s going to be creating some opportunities for our younger players,” Mozeliak said.

Cardinals Hire Brant Brown As Hitting Coach, Robert Cerfolio As Assistant General Manager

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The Cardinals announced that they have hired Brant Brown as their new hitting coach. They also announced the hiring of Jon Jay and a new role for Willie McGee, both of which were reported yesterday. Additionally, they announced  that Robert Cerfolio has been hired as assistant general manager, player development and performance. Cerfolio was previously with the Guardians as director of player development. Katie Woo of The Athletic reported on Cerfolio’s hiring earlier today while John Denton of MLB.com identified Brown on X as a leading candidate for the hitting coach job prior to the official announcement.

It’s been well-known for a while now that 2025 is going to be a transitional year for the Cards. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak is going to be giving his job to Chaim Bloom after the upcoming season, with the next year or so serving as a slower-than-usual passing of the torch. The franchise is presumably hoping that this will be a smoother transition than the traditional route of an abrupt firing and/or resignation followed by a hasty search for a replacement.

The club is planning to have a lower payroll and a larger focus on its player development pipeline, so plenty of changes are sure to come throughout the various facets of the club. One of those changes will be the addition of Cerfolio. As noted by Jeff Jones of the Belleville News-Democrat on X, Cerfolio is a Yalie, like Bloom, chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. and president Bill DeWitt III.

But his hiring surely goes beyond just his alma mater. As noted by Woo, Cerfolio was hired by the Guardians in 2015, an organization that is known for having a strong player development pipeline that has allowed it to succeed despite consistently low payrolls. That was something the Cardinals were known for earlier this century, though that reputation has faded recently. A clearly stated goal of this current pivot for the Cardinals is to get back to being that type of organization.

As Mozeliak handles the day-to-day operations of the Cards for the next year and Bloom focuses on that player development apparatus, he has brought Cerfolio aboard to help modernize things for the club. Woo says Bloom is expected to make dozens of hires as part of this process, so Cerfolio is just one piece of the puzzle.

Turning to the coaching staff, it was reported earlier this month that hitting coach Turner Ward would not have his contract renewed for 2025, creating a vacancy that Brown is now filling. Now 53, Brown played in the majors from 1996 to 2000. He then pivoted to coaching, starting with gigs in the minors. He was hired by the Dodgers going into 2018 and was on that club’s staff through 2022, first as assistant hitting coach and then as hitting strategist.

He spent 2023 as the hitting coach of the Marlins then jumped to the Mariners prior to the 2024 season, getting the title of offensive coordinator in Seattle. However, at the end of May 2024, the M’s parted ways with Brown even though he had only been hired in December. Offensive struggles were a key part of the narrative for the Mariners in 2024 and director of hitting strategy Jarret DeHart, who had taken on a larger role when Brown was fired, was also dismissed in August.

It’s always difficult to separate player performance from the contributions of a coach. While the Mariners struggled under Brown’s brief tenure, they also had notable problems the year prior, making it fair to ask if any coach could have made a meaningful difference with the way the roster was constructed. For what it’s worth, the Dodgers performed well during Brown’s time there while his one season in Miami was their only full-season playoff berth in the past 20 years. The club had a subpar 92 wRC+ in 2023 but that was still a bump relative to their 83 in 2022 and 86 in 2024.

Time will tell what kind of club the Cardinals will field in 2025, but it’s generally expected that their planned retooling period could lead to some trades of veterans that aren’t likely to be part of the next competitive window. If that comes to pass, Brown could be tasked with guiding a relatively young roster consisting of players looking to take steps forward at the major league level.

Cardinals Adding Jon Jay To Coaching Staff

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The Cardinals are hiring Jon Jay for a yet to be announced coaching role, as first reported by Katie Woo of the Athletic. Woo also reports that assistant coach Willie McGee has stepped down from the staff and will move into an advisory role with the front office.

Jay returns to the organization with which he spent the majority of his playing career. The former outfielder spent six seasons with the Cards, appearing in 757 games between 2010-15. Jay hit .287/.354/.384 over that stretch and was a key contributor on the 2011 World Series team. He moved into journeyman fashion after leaving St. Louis, playing for six teams before retiring in 2022.

A Miami native and University of Miami product, Jay started his coaching career with the Marlins during the 2022-23 offseason. He joined former teammate Skip Schumaker’s staff with his hometown team. Jay served as Miami’s first base coach for two seasons but was let go after Schumaker left the organization last month. Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extrabase tweeted that the Marlins had interest in keeping Jay around, but the 39-year-old evidently preferred to look elsewhere rather than wait out Miami’s latest managerial hiring process.

Jay won’t work as a base coach in St. Louis. Woo reports that first base coach Stubby Clapp and third base coach Pop Warner will return to Oli Marmol’s staff. Bench coach Daniel Descalso, pitching coach Dusty Blake and assistant hitting coach Brandon Allen are also expected back, she writes. St. Louis moved on from hitting coach Turner Ward a couple weeks ago. That position is still unfilled, although it’s not clear if that’s the role which Jay will assume.

McGee, 65, has held the nebulous title of assistant coach on the St. Louis staff. The 1985 NL MVP has worked as a coach since the start of the 2018 season. He previously worked as a special assistant in the front office and has spent time coaching both MLB and minor league outfielders on defense. McGee is a member of the organization’s Hall of Fame.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Position Players

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While the baseball world’s immediate focus is on the upcoming showdown between two behemoths, the offseason looms just after the World Series. One of the first key decisions for teams is whether to issue a qualifying offer to any of their impending free agents. Clubs have until the fifth day after the conclusion of the World Series to make QO decisions.

The QO is a one-year offer calculated by averaging the 125 highest salaries in MLB. This year’s price is $21.05MM. Joel Sherman of The New York Post reported in August that players who receive the QO have until November 19 to decide whether to lock in that one-year salary and return to their current team. If the player rejects and signs elsewhere, his former team would receive draft compensation. The signing club would forfeit a pick (or picks) and potentially international signing bonus space. The compensation and penalties vary depending on teams’ revenue sharing and luxury tax statuses. MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently examined what each team would receive if they lose a qualified free agent, and the penalties they’d pay to sign one.

No-Doubters

There’s zero suspense with this quintet. They’re going to receive qualifying offers, which they’ll easily decline. Soto is on his way to a record-setting deal. Adames and Bregman are locks for nine figures. Alonso has a solid chance to get there as well. It’s tougher to envision a $100MM contract for Santander, but he shouldn’t have any issue securing three or four years at an average annual value that’s around the QO price. As revenue sharing recipients, the Brewers and Orioles will get picks after the first round in the 2025 draft (assuming Adames and Santander sign for more than $50MM). The Mets, Yankees and Astros all paid the luxury tax and would only get a pick after the fourth round if they lose their qualified free agents.

Likely Recipients

We placed Hernández in the “likely” bucket last offseason when he was coming off a down year with the Mariners. Seattle opted not to make the QO and let him walk, citing a desire to cut back on the swing-and-miss profile that Hernández brings. That paved the way for the Dodgers to add him on a heavily deferred $23.5MM pillow contract. It was one of the best value signings of the winter. Hernández returned to peak form, bopping a career-best 33 homers with a .272/.339/.501 line through 652 plate appearances. That’s more than enough power to live with a few strikeouts and a fringy defensive profile in the corner outfield.

The cherry on top for L.A. is that Hernández remains eligible for the QO in his return to free agency. The Dodgers could accommodate a $21MM salary in the unlikely event that he accepts. As luxury tax payors, they’d only receive a pick after the fourth round in next year’s draft if he declines and walks. That minimal compensation is the biggest reason Hernández isn’t a lock, but he’s very likely to decline the QO in search of three or four years. The downside if he accepts is that he returns at a similar price point to the one Los Angeles offered coming off a rough season. Opting against the QO only makes sense if the Dodgers are fully committed to giving Andy Pages a look in left field next season.

Walker has seized upon a late-career opportunity with the Diamondbacks to develop into one of the sport’s best first basemen. He’s a Gold Glove caliber defender who topped 30 homers in both 2022 and ’23. He’d have gotten there again this season if not for an oblique injury that cost him the entire month of August. Walker had to “settle” for 26 homers with a .251/.335/.468 slash over 130 games.

The South Carolina product turns 34 just after Opening Day. He’s looking at four years at most and could wind up signing for two or three seasons. That could come at a comparable AAV to the qualifying offer price, though, and this is likely Walker’s only chance to really cash in on a multi-year contract. He’d likely decline a QO. If he didn’t, the D-Backs should be happy to have him back for another season at just over $21MM. The majority of MLBTR readers agree; more than 70% of respondents in a poll over the weekend opined that the Diamondbacks should make the offer.

Long Shots

It’s tough to see a qualifying offer for anyone in this group. Goldschmidt is the least likely. The Cardinals are entering a retooling year and he’s coming off the worst season of his career. The former MVP hit better in the second half than he did in the first. He should land a strong one-year deal but isn’t likely to get to $21MM.

Kim looked like a lock for the QO before suffering a late-season labrum injury in his throwing shoulder. He underwent surgery that’ll almost certainly sideline him into the early part of next year. There’s a decent chance he’d accept, which isn’t a great outcome for a Padres team that may enter the offseason already up against the budget. Payroll is a similar concern regarding Profar, who is coming off easily the best season of his career. He’s been wildly inconsistent throughout his decade-plus in the big leagues. San Diego baseball operations president A.J. Preller loves Profar, but $21MM+ is a lot for a team with a massive arbitration class and needs at shortstop and in the rotation. The Padres could try to bring him back for three or four years at a lesser annual hit.

O’Neill had a productive season for the Sox, hitting 31 homers with a .241/.336/.511 slash. He added three more IL stints to his lengthy career injury history, though, and the overwhelming majority of his production came against left-handed pitching. O’Neill’s righty bat provides a nice balance in a Boston lineup that skews heavily to the left side, but the QO price feels steep for this profile. There’s a strong chance he’d accept.

Torres would not have warranted a mention on this list a couple months ago. He had an excellent finish to the regular season (.306/.375/.417 after August 1) and has a .297/.400/.432 slash with more walks than strikeouts in October. That’s enough to at least get him back on the radar, but a QO still feels like a stretch. He’s a poor defensive second baseman whose overall season line — .257/.330/.378 in 665 plate appearances — was essentially league average.

At the trade deadline, the Yankees seemed set to turn the keystone to Jazz Chisholm Jr. and let Torres walk. They could keep Chisholm at the hot corner, but they’d need to overlook the flaws Torres showed for a good portion of the regular season. There’s a strong chance he’d accept a QO, which would put the Yanks on the hook for more than $44MM after accounting for the corresponding luxury tax hit. Tying that money up a week into an offseason where they’ll face a massive bidding war on Soto probably isn’t happening. That’s especially true since the compensation they’d receive if Torres declines (a pick after the fourth round) isn’t particularly valuable.

Ineligible

Players traded midseason or who have already received the qualifying offer in their career are ineligible for the QO. That’s largely a moot point with regard to the position player class, as no one from this group was likely to receive one anyways. Bellinger probably won’t opt out of the two years and $50MM left on his deal with the Cubs. Conforto and Pederson would’ve been fringe candidates at best even if they hadn’t received the offer earlier in their careers.

MLBTR Podcast: Changes In Minnesota, Cubs’ Prospect Depth, And Possibilities For The O’s

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • With Jed Hoyer in the last year of his contract, how aggressive will the Cubs be this offseason? Also, with so many top 100 prospects nearing the majors, how will that impact their offseason decisions? (10:10)
  • What is the feeling about the Orioles possible spending this offseason? Is there a sense of what could happen or is more wait-and-see in the inside baseball world? (26:55)
  • What do the Rangers need to do in this offseason in order to be competitive next year.  Any specific players they need to target? (32:45)
  • Willson Contreras seems like a logical fit for the Blue Jays if the Cardinals decide to move him. Only problem might be the return since the Cardinals want to shed money. Would this be likely? (34:55)
  • The Padres have spent significant resources to build its current roster, but the World Series title continues to elude them. With potential payroll issues looming, how do they maintain their success for 2025 and beyond? They have a good lineup and great bullpen, but how do they avoid being worse in 2025? (39:50)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Previewing FA Starting Pitchers, TV Deals, And Potential Spending Teams – listen here
  • Buster Posey Takes Over In SF And The Cardinals’ Succession Plan – listen here
  • Final Days In Oakland, The Surging Tigers, And If The Nats Will Pursue Juan Soto – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Quick Hits: Bieber, Niebla, Shildt, Cardinals

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Shane Bieber’s season was ended by a Tommy John surgery back in April, and he’ll now head into free agency with this big question mark attached to his health.  It could be that Bieber ends up sticking with the Guardians, as Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer thinks “there’s interest on both sides” about a new contract.  Since Bieber won’t be able to return to a big league mound until probably June or July, a new deal might just involve one guaranteed season with some type of option for the 2026 season, or potentially a two-year guarantee with a small salary in 2025 and then the majority of the money slated for 2026 when Bieber will presumably be able to complete a full season.

Similar contracts have emerged in the past for pitchers coming off major surgeries and facing reduced or non-existent workloads in the first year of the two-year pacts, and the reduced cost of such a trade has particular appeal for a lower-payroll team like the Guardians.  A two-year guarantee would keep Bieber from entering free agency again until he is about to enter his age-32 season, though he might want to lock in some more guaranteed security now while he is still dealing with the uncertainty of his TJ rehab.  From a baseball perspective, Bieber surely would be open to staying in a familiar environment and playing for another winning team, while bringing back Bieber for even a half-season could be a help for a very unsettled Guards rotation.

More from around the baseball world…

  • Padres pitching coach Ruben Niebla’s contract is up now that the season is over, Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune writes.  It isn’t known if there have been any talks between the two sides, but Acee feels an extension “should be a no-brainer” given how well the Padres’ staff has performed over Niebla’s three seasons on the job.  San Diego pitchers have a combined 3.80 ERA over the 2022-24 seasons, ranking ninth in baseball in that span. Manager Mike Shildt is also now entering a walk year since 2025 is the last season of his initial two-year contract, and surely the Padres will also look to give the skipper more security in the wake of his very successful inaugural campaign with the club.
  • The Cardinals are putting a renewed focus on player development in what might be a rebuilding year in 2025, but some fresh steps were already taken this past year.  Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes that the Cards led all four minor league levels in innings pitched by starting pitchers, which was a stated goal for the organization since the simple idea was the pitching prospects could learn just from working deeper into games.  As explained by Cards pitching coach Dusty Blake, “you find out that once you get to pitch #80, it’s hard for you to get your breaking stuff down, so here is the adjustment to make sure if you’ve got to beat this guy a third time.”  If a pitcher isn’t taken out to manage innings or to avoid a jam, “there are ancillary pieces that you continue to learn and adapt with workload.  You find out about yourself as you experience some fatigue.  How do you keep competing and making pitches to give you that best chance?”  Another wrinkle is that getting used to longer outings might help Cardinals youngsters adjust to the future should the league institutes a rule about a minimum number of innings pitched or batters faced in a game.

Latest On White Sox’s Managerial Search

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Finding a manager is one of the first orders of offseason business for the White Sox. Chicago dismissed Pedro Grifol in early August. Grady Sizemore finished the season on an interim basis. While Sox GM Chris Getz left the door ajar for Sizemore to take the full-time job, Getz had previously indicated that the team was likely to go outside the organization for a solution.

Jon Heyman of the New York Post reports that the Sox’s early list of targets includes Rangers associate manager Will Venable, Cardinals bench coach Daniel Descalso, and former Angels skipper Phil Nevin. That’s not an exhaustive set of candidates, nor is it clear if anyone from that trio will actually interview.

Nevin is the only one of that group with previous managerial experience. The former All-Star infielder took over the Halos on an interim basis when Los Angeles fired Joe Maddon in June 2022. The Angels signed Nevin to a one-year extension covering the ’23 campaign. They decided not to re-sign him last winter on the heels of a 73-89 season. Nevin interviewed for the Padres’ vacancy that eventually went to Mike Shildt. He did not coach this past season.

Venable and Descalso are more recently retired players who have long been viewed as potential future managers. Venable had spent time as Alex Cora’s bench coach with the Red Sox before accepting the associate manager role under Bruce Bochy in 2022. He has held that position in Texas for the past two years. Venable won a World Series ring during his first season in Arlington. He took himself out of consideration for managerial roles early last winter, reportedly declining a chance to interview with the Mets for the job which went to Carlos Mendoza.

While Venable has been on coaching staffs for the past seven years, Descalso has just one season of MLB coaching experience. The former Cardinals infielder took the bench coach role with St. Louis last offseason. He spent this year as Oli Marmol’s top lieutenant and has also worked in the Diamondbacks’ front office since retiring as a player in 2021.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals didn't use the word "rebuild" at last week's press conference, but it's abundantly clear that they're taking a future-focused approach and stepping back from what's been a perennial goal of fielding a contender for decades. The 2025 season will be president of baseball operations John Mozeliak's final year on the job. A new era of Cardinals baseball is approaching. Let's break down what the offseason could entail.

Guaranteed Contracts

Option Decisions

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; salary projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Free Agents

As the Cardinals' lackluster season drew to a close, it became increasingly clear that changes were on the horizon. Speculation ranged from the front office to the dugout. Ultimately, manager Oli Marmol will remain in place for the 2025 season, and Mozeliak will return for an 18th season leading baseball operations -- but with a caveat. Former Rays senior vice president and Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom will oversee player development next season before taking the reins as the Cardinals' new president of baseball ops. General manager Mike Girsch has already been reassigned. In the dugout, several coaches have been let go already.

It feels almost foreign to be discussing the Cardinals, a bastion of competitive rosters in the NL Central for the past couple decades, as a team now focused not on who might be coming into the fold but rather who might be exiting the frame. That's reality, however, as much of the roster could turn over via a series of trades or surprising decisions on what otherwise seemed like straightforward option calls.

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How Will The Cardinals Handle Their Rotation Options?

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The coming offseason figures to be a tumultuous one for the Cardinals. Coming off a second consecutive season where the club missed the playoffs, St. Louis brass have already announced that significant changes are coming, headlined by Chaim Bloom stepping in to take over baseball operations following the 2025 season (with a larger role in the meantime) and the club planning to slash payroll as they figure to bring back few if any of their departing veteran players.

While Paul Goldschmidt headlines the list of players who appear likely to don another uniform in 2025, what’s not yet clear is what the club intends to do about its starting rotation. Rumors have swirled that the club could shop staff ace Sonny Gray this winter as they look to trim payroll and focus on developing young players, and if Gray were to be moved that would leave only struggling veteran Miles Mikolas, oft-injured swingman Steven Matz, breakout youngster Andre Pallante, and deadline acquisition Erick Fedde as rotation options on guaranteed contracts for 2025. With some interesting young arms such as Michael McGreevey, Sem Robberse, and Adam Kloffenstein in the wings as potential contributors next year, it’s not hard to imagine St. Louis getting solid enough production from its internal options.

With that being said, however, their current rotation picture offers very little certainty, especially should Gray wind up pitching elsewhere next year. After all, even Pallante and Fedde lack track records of success in a big league rotation that go beyond the current season. Fortunately, the Cards have not one but two options available to them that could help raise the floor on their 2025 rotation at a relatively cheap price: Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. The veteran hurlers will play at ages 37 and 38 respectively next year, but both posted solid results as back-end rotation options for the club this year and come with identical $12MM club options (with $1MM buyouts) for 2025. Given the club’s focus on the future and desire to trim payroll, it would be something of a surprise if both options were exercised. Given the many similarities between the two veteran Midwest natives, it’s fair to wonder which of the two hurlers would be a better choice for the Cardinals to retain next year, and which one they should send into free agency.

Of the two, retaining Lynn would surely offer a higher ceiling. The veteran hurler pitched the first six seasons of his career in St. Louis as a perfectly capable mid-rotation arm, but had a late-career breakout with the Rangers and White Sox that saw him pitch like a true top-of-the-rotation ace: from 2019 to 2021, Lynn posted a strong 3.26 ERA that was 46% better than league average with a 3.39 FIP and a 27.5% strikeout rate. He also enjoyed slightly better results than Gibson did this year, with advantages in ERA (3.84 vs 4.24), FIP (4.31 vs 4.42), and strikeout rate (21.3% vs 20.9%). For a club that’s likely to rely primarily on internal improvements in order to maintain hopes of contending for a playoff spot in 2025, there’s an argument to be made that Lynn’s ceiling and stronger results this season make him the smarter choice to retain going forward.

That’s not to say there isn’t a case to be made for Gibson, however. While the 12-year MLB veteran has never flashed the ceiling Lynn did during his peak, Gibson is more dependable in some ways. The groundballer rarely misses time due to injury, having made at least 29 starts in nine of his ten full seasons in the majors. By contrast, Lynn was limited to just 21 starts in 2022 and 23 starts this year by knee issues. What’s more, even as Lynn posted stronger overall numbers with the Cardinals this year, certain underlying metrics actually painted a much less clear picture: Gibson’s 4.44 SIERA is nearly identical to Lynn’s 4.40 figure, while Gibson actually wins on both xERA (4.90 vs 4.93) and xFIP (4.19 vs 4.39) thanks in part to a much stronger grounder rate (44.8% vs 36.3%).

While Gibson’s ceiling may not be as high as Lynn’s his reliability could be particularly valuable for a club that figures to rely heavily on young arms who may not yet be ready for a full season’s workload next year, and his comparable expected metrics call into question just how much of an advantage Lynn really has in terms of run prevention. Of course, it’s also worth noting that the club could choose a third option and decline both club options in hopes of finding similar production at a lower cost in free agency. It would be a risky choice to make given the rising costs of pitching in recent years, but a back-end arm like Martin Perez, Jose Urena, or Michael Lorenzen could theoretically be had at a lower price than either veteran’s club option depending on how this winter’s market shakes out. Of course, any player available at that price point would surely have flaws of their own.

How should the Cardinals handle their upcoming club options in the rotation? Have your say in the poll below:

Which Option Should The Cardinals Pick Up This Winter?
Decline Both Options In Hopes Of A Better Deal In Free Agency 51.42% (1,824 votes)
Pick Up Kyle Gibson's Option 36.37% (1,290 votes)
Pick Up Lance Lynn's Option 12.21% (433 votes)
Total Votes: 3,547

Cardinals Part Ways With Hitting Coach Turner Ward

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The Cardinals will have a new hitting coach next season. The team has decided not to offer Turner Ward a contract for 2025, Katie Woo reports for The Athletic.

Ward spent the past two seasons as the Cardinals hitting coach, overseeing an underwhelming offense both years. In that time, St. Louis ranked 21st in runs scored (1391), 16th in OPS (.723), and 17th in wRC+ (101). Those numbers aren’t terrible, but they are certainly disappointing for a team with postseason aspirations. Not all the blame for this mediocre offense should land on Turner; after all, he was the assistant hitting coach in 2022, when the Cardinals’ offense was surprisingly potent, ranking sixth in runs scored (772), fifth in OPS (.745), and seventh in wRC+ (112). However, it’s not hard to understand why the Cardinals were ready to move on.

The Cardinals are expected to keep assistant hitting coach Brandon Allen on staff, though it’s unclear if they will promote Allen or seek their new hitting coach elsewhere. Woo also notes that game-planning coach Packy Elkins and first-base coach Stubby Clapp will return in 2025. However, her latest piece does not mention assistant pitching coach Julio Rangel, another Cardinals coach whose contract was set to expire at the end of the season. Bench coach Daniel Descalso and pitching coach Dusty Blake are under contract through 2025, while third-base coach Pop Warner is under contract through 2026 (per Woo).

Prior to his time with the Cardinals, Ward worked as an assistant hitting coach for the Diamondbacks and a hitting coach for the Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Reds. He is now free to seek his next coaching opportunity with a new organization.

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