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Rangers Rumors

Cafardo’s Latest: CBA, BoSox, Bautista, Votto, Tigers, Yanks, Hoyer

By Connor Byrne | November 13, 2016 at 8:43am CDT

The absence of a new collective bargaining agreement has representatives for top free agents like Yoenis Cespedes and Edwin Encarnacion concerned, and could lead to delays in signing, writes Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. The current CBA, set to expire Dec. 1, includes a $189MM luxury tax threshold. Big-spending teams that are near the $189MM figure could hold off on adding high-end free agents (Cespedes and Encarnacion, to name a couple) until the CBA situation is resolved because they might face penalties under the next agreement if the luxury tax number doesn’t increase. One club it will affect is the Red Sox, according to Cafardo, who expects them to pursue Encarnacion if the threshold rises. Otherwise, they’re likely settle for a less expensive bat like Carlos Beltran.

More from Cafardo:

  • Free agent outfielder/designated hitter Jose Bautista “loves” both Boston and Fenway Park, making the Red Sox a potential fit for the longtime Blue Jay, per Cafardo. Further, Bautista has fans in Red Sox manager John Farrell and third base coach Brian Butterfield, both of whom were previously in Toronto. If the 36-year-old doesn’t end up rejoining them in Boston, the Rangers, Astros, Orioles, Cardinals, Giants and Braves are also possibilities (the DH-less National League doesn’t seem ideal, though). First things first, Bautista will have to reject Toronto’s qualifying offer by Monday – which seems like a formality.
  • Reds first baseman Joey Votto could waive his no-trade clause if his hometown team – the Blue Jays – attempts to acquire him, Cafardo suggests, but he adds that a deal is unlikely. Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported earlier this week that the Reds have “no intention” of trading Votto, who is owed $179MM over the next seven seasons.“We’ve traded away a lot of players we’ve drafted and developed. He’s one of the few that remains,” said GM Dick Williams. “There’s a sentimental connection with fans no doubt. But it doesn’t have anything to do with attendance and draw. It’s about performance. He delivers.” The 33-year-old Votto did indeed deliver in 2016, slashing a remarkable .326/.434/.550 with 29 home runs in 677 plate appearances.
  • The Tigers’ plan to get younger and cut payroll is “probably going to be a three-year process,” general manager Al Avila told Cafardo. Avila revealed that he isn’t worried about the luxury tax, saying, “I don’t know what [the luxury tax threshold is] going to be. We’re going to make this change in our business philosophy. We were just trying to get younger and whatever that ends up being, it ends up being. The market will decide what will happen.” The Tigers are reportedly willing to discuss trades involving some of their biggest names, including first baseman Miguel Cabrera, ace Justin Verlander and second baseman Ian Kinsler, and Avila has made it clear that he’s “open-minded in listening.”
  • Yankees left fielder Brett Gardner is a good bet to draw trade interest, reports Cafardo. He’s coming off a 2.4-fWAR season, his fourth consecutive campaign with at least that total. Depending on what happens with his 2019 club option, the 33-year-old Gardner will collect either $25MM or $35.5MM over the next three seasons.
  • Having signed a five-year extension in September, Cubs GM Jed Hoyer is clearly content as a prominent member of the World Series champions’ front office. However, president Theo Epstein’s second-in-command would like autonomy over a baseball department someday. “At some point I would relish [being in charge] again. I aspire to that,” Hoyer said. “But I’m in no hurry. I’ve had opportunities to have that role and I turned them down to stay in Chicago.” Hoyer was previously with the Padres as their GM from 2009-11, but he left San Diego to reunite with Epstein, his former Boston colleague.
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Atlanta Braves Baltimore Orioles Boston Red Sox Cincinnati Reds Collective Bargaining Agreement Detroit Tigers Houston Astros New York Yankees San Francisco Giants St. Louis Cardinals Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Brett Gardner Edwin Encarnacion Jed Hoyer Joey Votto Jose Bautista Yoenis Cespedes

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Rangers Sign Will Middlebrooks To Minor League Deal

By charliewilmoth | November 12, 2016 at 8:17am CDT

The Rangers have signed corner infielder Will Middlebrooks to a minor league deal, as Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News notes. Middlebrooks has spent most of his professional career playing third base, and the Rangers already have a top third baseman in Adrian Beltre. Grant notes, though, that Middlebrooks could provide the Rangers with an insurance policy at first base for 2017 — Mitch Moreland is set to depart via free agency, and the team currently lacks a clear starter at first, with Jurickson Profar, Ryan Rua and Joey Gallo among the available options.

The 28-year-old Middlebrooks played sparingly in the big leagues in 2016, collecting just 31 plate appearances with the Brewers and hitting .282/.308/.508 in 264 plate appearances for Triple-A Colorado Springs. Before that, he’d collected at least 200 plate appearances in four straight years in the big leagues with the Red Sox and then the Padres, hitting a combined .231/.274/.399 and struggling to get on base after a productive rookie season. Signing with the Rangers represents something of a homecoming for Middlebrooks, who hails from Greenville, 45 minutes east of Dallas.

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Texas Rangers Transactions Will Middlebrooks

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Trade Rumblings: A’s, Rangers, D-backs, Tigers, Dodgers, Rays

By Steve Adams | November 11, 2016 at 8:03am CDT

While the Athletics aren’t exactly shopping any of Sonny Gray, Stephen Vogt or Sean Doolittle, they’re open-minded to trade scenarios involving the three due to the fact that they recognize the unlikeliness of competing in the next year’s AL West with this current group, writes Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports. Per Rosenthal, Oakland will look to build around younger arms like Sean Manaea and Jharel Cotton, though he also notes the difficulty that presents itself when entertaining offers on Gray. Trading the 2015 Cy Young candidate when his value is at all-time low is quite problematic, as teams will be looking to buy low on the still-just-27-year-old Gray, while the A’s rightly would place a higher premium on him. Both Gray and Vogt are controllable for three more years via arbitration, while Doolittle is guaranteed a mere $6.95MM over the next two seasons and has two club options at $6MM and $6.5MM beyond that.

Some more trade rumblings from around the league…

  • Also via Rosenthal, the Rangers and Rays had extensive talks about Chris Archer, Drew Smyly and Jake Odorizzi prior to the non-waiver trade deadline this summer, and the two sides aren’t expected to renew any of those talks. Texas isn’t as aggressive on Rich Hill as other clubs either, though Rosenthal notes that they’ll still probably find a way add a mid-rotation arm or back-of-the-rotation arm at some point this winter.
  • The Diamondbacks are content to hang onto Yasmany Tomas for the time being, Rosenthal reports. The 26-year-old had a huge second half that saw him bat .294/.329/.584 with 18 homers in 258 plate appearances, boosting his season batting line to .272/.313/.508 to go along with 31 homers. However, his highly suspect defense (-16 DRS, -14 UZR), below-average OBP and poor baserunning left him as a replacement-level player in the eyes of both Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference. Rosenthal notes that AL teams may eventually find Tomas more attractive once players like Yoenis Cespedes and Edwin Encarnacion sign, though I’m not sure any team would jump at Tomas’ contract. He’s guaranteed $48.5MM over the next four seasons and has an opt-out clause following the 2018 campaign on his backloaded deal. In other words, if Tomas blossomed into the regular he was projected to be, he could jump ship after just two years and re-enter free agency, but if 2017 mirrors his first two years, an acquiring team would be looking at nearly $50MM for a sub-replacement-level player.
  • ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick spoke to a number of general managers at this week’s meetings to discuss the thin market for starting pitching, including Tigers GM Al Avila. Crasnick writes that the Tigers are willing to dangle Justin Verlander in trades — Avila acknowledged as much earlier this week when saying the Tigers were open-minded to virtually any trade scenario — and notes that the GM has already spoken with Verlander, Miguel Cabrera, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler and informed them that they should expect to see their names bandied about in trade rumors this offseason.
  • Crasnick also talked to Dodgers GM Farhan Zaidi about the possibility of L.A. swinging a deal for an arm. Zaidi expressed some confidence in the depth that the team has internally before adding, “…but there’s a reason we went out and traded for Rich Hill at the deadline last year. It’s something we’re going to continue to monitor.” Zaidi’s Dodgers are indeed stacked with depth — in addition to Clayton Kershaw they have options in Julio Urias, Kenta Maeda, Scott Kazmir, Brandon McCarthy, Alex Wood, Jose De Leon, Brock Stewart, Hyun-jin Ryu and Ross Stripling — which is why the GM said the team will be “fairly targeted in looking for guys who come with maximum upside to pitch at the front of the rotation.”
  • Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the Rays left the GM Meetings with a stronger belief than they had upon arrival that they’ll trade one of Archer, Odorizzi or Smyly this winter. He adds that there’s an “outside chance” that Alex Cobb will be dealt as well, although Cobb’s return from Tommy John surgery was delayed in 2016, leaving him with a total of just 22 innings and an 8.59 ERA, so it’d be understandable if Tampa Bay feels that Cobb’s value would increase in 2017.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Detroit Tigers Los Angeles Dodgers Oakland Athletics Tampa Bay Rays Texas Rangers Alex Cobb Chris Archer Drew Smyly Ian Kinsler Jake Odorizzi Justin Verlander Miguel Cabrera Sean Doolittle Sonny Gray Stephen Vogt Yasmany Tomas

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AL West Rumors: Profar, Astros, Street, Angels, Mariners

By Steve Adams | November 10, 2016 at 7:13pm CDT

Jurickson Profar could be one of the Rangers’ biggest trade chips this offseason in their search for starting pitching, writes MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan, although GM Jon Daniels spoke highly of Profar and said he expects him to be with the team next year. “As we sit here today, I expect him to be a part of the club in a winning role,” said Daniels of the 23-year-old Profar, who missed both 2014 and 2015 due to shoulder injuries but returned to play 90 games for Texas in 2016. The former No. 1 overall prospect batted just .239/.321/.338 in 307 plate appearances while playing first base, second base, shortstop, third base and left field. Daniels did acknowledge that he’s aware of Profar’s desire to play shortstop on an everyday basis, though there’s no avenue for him to do that with Elvis Andrus coming off a career year. However, as Daniels noted, the increase in roster versatility around the league has allowed utility players to effectively become regulars — a role that Profar could hold next year. Profar is under control through the 2019 season.

More from the division…

  • Astros GM Jeff Luhnow tells Jake Kaplan of the Houston Chronicle that he and the rest of his front office are leaving this week’s GM Meetings with a lengthy list of “leads” to pursue in terms of both free agents and trades. “I think we’re going to start making some offers right away, both with teams as well as with agents and players,” said Luhnow. “Whether or not it leads to anything next week, I don’t know. But I would like to have one or two things done before the winter meetings if possible.”
  • Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register tweets that Angels GM Billy Eppler has informed Huston Street that he’ll have to win the closer’s role in a competition during Spring Training. Young righty Cam Bedrosian, who took over the ninth inning when Street hit the disabled list with a season-ending knee injury, will also be in the mix. The 33-year-old Street missed a month with an oblique strain early in the year before requiring knee surgery in August, limiting him to just 22 1/3 innings. Street recorded a brutal 6.45 ERA in that time and posted a 14-to-12 K/BB ratio while his fastball averaged a career-low 88.2 mph. Bedrosian, meanwhile, turned in a dominant 1.12 ERA with 11.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and a 49.5 percent ground-ball rate in 40 1/3 innings. The 25-year-old saw his own season end preemptively as well, however; he first hit the DL due to a tendon strain in the middle finger on his right hand before undergoing surgery to repair a blood clot in his arm.
  • Fletcher also reports that the Angels turned down a trade offer for an offensive-minded second baseman at this week’s GM Meetings due to the fact that the unnamed player was a defensive liability (Twitter link). It’s not clear who, exactly, is being referenced with the report — speculate away in the comments section — but Fletcher gets the impression that defense will be a high priority for the Halos as they look to fill add a second baseman. (Of note, Fletcher implied in a followup tweet that the second baseman in question wasn’t exactly a big name.)
  • Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto suggested that his club will pursue a more targeted offseason than it did last year, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. “Last year was about heavy lifting and effectively re-creating the way we played,” he said. “This year is about focusing on ways we can get better in the parameters we set up last year.” With some “freedom” in the payroll, Seattle will still be looking to add a right-handed-hitting option at first, a righty-swinging outfielder, and a lefty reliever. Divish ticks through some of the many options on the market.
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Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Seattle Mariners Texas Rangers Cam Bedrosian Huston Street Jeff Luhnow Jurickson Profar

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Free Agent Rumblings: Encarnacion, Beltran, Cespedes, Mets, Colon

By Jeff Todd | November 10, 2016 at 12:52pm CDT

The Blue Jays are still at the top of the list of free agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion, agent Paul Kinzer said in an appearance on Sportsnet 590 (audio available here). Toronto has made an offer, though it “wasn’t quite where [Encarnacion’s camp] wanted to be,” and it seems that there’s still some hope of a reunion. There are other suitors, but Kinzer notes that Encarnacion will weigh matters beyond the pure contract and that “there’s a short list of where he would go to.” Kinzer noted that the market has thrown some “curves” thus far. The Red Sox have been somewhat less aggressive than had been expected, the agent acknowledged, though he noted that some unexpected teams have been in talks. While it seems there’s a lot of ground still to cover, Kinzer suggested that a signing could come together by the start of the Winter Meetings — and might well take place sooner.

Here are a few more notes on some prominent free agents:

  • The Astros have serious interest in free agent outfielder/DH Carlos Beltran, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. The Rangers still have Beltran on their radar, too, per that report. And the Red Sox remain intrigued by Beltran, but view him as one of many possible candidates, per Rob Bradford of WEEI.com (via Twitter). Boston is still casting a “wide net” in seeking a new DH. All told, it seems that the 39-year-old will have multiple options as he chases an elusive World Series title in what will be his 20th major league season.
  • Yankees GM Brian Cashman downplayed any connection between his organization and top free agent slugger Yoenis Cespedes, as Feinsand reports. Cashman acknowledges that there has been some contact, but characterized it as more of a routine opening of a channel to obtain medical information and perhaps pursue dialogue in the future.
  • The Mets had “preliminary talks” involving free agents Jose Bautista and Dexter Fowler over the last several days, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post (via Twitter). But the team remains focused on trying to engineer the return of Cespedes. GM Sandy Alderson met with his agent yesterday, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com tweets. Meanwhile, rival organizations have reached out to New York to ask about the availability of lefty-swinging outfielders Michael Conforto, Curtis Granderson, and Jay Bruce, per Marc Carig of Newsday (Twitter links). It’s all supposition at this point, but there does seem to be some sense in the idea of signing a right-handed-hitting outfielder while dealing a lefty. The three possible targets noted above all hit from the right side (with Fowler also switching to the left side to face righties).
  • There have been some conflicting signals of late as to how interested the Mets are in bringing back veteran righty Bartolo Colon, but GM Sandy Alderson said today that there’s still interest, as MLB.com’s Barry Bloom reports. Still, it doesn’t seem as if there’s any sense of urgency, with Alderson suggesting the pitching market will have more clarity in a few weeks’ time. If the Mets don’t push to bring back Colon, the division-rival Braves may be there to step in, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman tweets that Atlanta has ongoing interest. (Of course, the team already landed an over-40 pitcher today.)
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Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Houston Astros New York Mets New York Yankees Texas Rangers Toronto Blue Jays Bartolo Colon Carlos Beltran Curtis Granderson Dexter Fowler Edwin Encarnacion Jay Bruce Jose Bautista Michael Conforto Sandy Alderson Yoenis Cespedes

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Offseason Outlook: Texas Rangers

By charliewilmoth | November 9, 2016 at 7:38am CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.

The Rangers are coming off a 95-win season, and they’ll return plenty of impact players to a 2017 team that could be strong yet again. This offseason will be a challenge for GM Jon Daniels, though, as he attempts to augment a roster that has a number of glaring needs.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Prince Fielder, 1B: $96MM through 2020 (Fielder will remain on disabled list, with an insurance policy covering $9MM per year and the Tigers covering $6MM per year for the rest of his contract)
  • Elvis Andrus, SS: $88MM through 2022 (plus 2023 club/vesting option)
  • Shin-Soo Choo, OF: $82MM through 2020
  • Cole Hamels, SP: $51MM through 2018 (includes $6MM buyout on 2019 club/vesting option)
  • Adrian Beltre, 3B: $36MM through 2018
  • Yu Darvish, SP: $11MM through 2017
  • Martin Perez, SP: $6.85MM through 2017 (includes $2.45MM buyout on 2018 club option)
  • Tony Barnette, RP: $2MM through 2017 (includes $250K buyout on 2018 club option)

Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

  • Robinson Chirinos (4.103) – $2.1MM
  • Tanner Scheppers (4.094) – $1.1MM
  • Jake Diekman (4.050) – $2.6MM
  • A.J. Griffin (4.034) – $1.9MM
  • Jurickson Profar (3.124) – $1.1MM
  • Jeremy Jeffress (3.077) – $2.9MM
  • Sam Dyson (2.142) – $3.9MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Scheppers, Griffin

Contract Options

  • Derek Holland, SP: $11MM or $1.5MM buyout (should the Rangers exercise the option, they’ll also have an option for 2018)
  • Jonathan Lucroy, C: $5.25MM or $250K buyout

Free Agents

  • Carlos Beltran, Carlos Gomez, Ian Desmond, Colby Lewis, Mitch Moreland

Rangers Depth Chart; Rangers Payroll Information

For a very successful team, the 2016 Rangers had more than their share of problems. Their bullpen was a disaster early in the season. Their starting rotation was very weak beyond Cole Hamels, Martin Perez and (when he was healthy) Yu Darvish. And, of course, 2016 saw the sad end of the career of Prince Fielder, in whom the Rangers had made a significant investment. Overall, the team scored 765 runs and allowed 757, for a Pythagorean record of just 82-80. The Rangers certainly could contend again in 2017, and they’ll surely approach their offseason with that in mind. But their roster currently looks a bit closer to that of a problematic 82-80 team than a 95-win juggernaut.

Following a midseason trade for Jonathan Lucroy, the Rangers have plenty of catching help. Lucroy’s $5.25MM option was a trivially easy decision after Lucroy batted .276/.345/.539 for them down the stretch. (That Lucroy, who is now 30 and has nearly seven years of service time, will still be paid just $5.25MM next season is one of the game’s great mysteries.) Lucroy will have a capable backup in Robinson Chirinos, who still will only receive a projected $2.1MM despite producing 2.3 fWAR in less than a season’s worth of at bats over the last two years.

Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus and Adrian Beltre will man the leftmost three infield positions, with the still-youthful Jurickson Profar available to back up any of those three spots as needed. Those positions will require little attention this offseason. But the same can’t be said of first base, where the Rangers are set to lose Mitch Moreland. Moreland is now 31, is coming off an underwhelming .233/.298/.422 season, and has merely been a good complementary player even in his best years. The Rangers would probably be best served simply to let him walk.

They have an obvious replacement for Moreland, too, in Joey Gallo, a prolific minor league slugger who played 32 games at first base at Triple-A Round Rock last season. (Gallo recently injured his hamstring playing winter ball in Venezuela, but there’s no indication that injury will affect his 2017 season.) Gallo’s power is tantalizing — he’s hit at least 26 home runs in all of the last four seasons. He does, however, come with significant downside risk, since he only batted .240 for Round Rock last year, has struck out a ton even in the minors, and has hit just .173 through 153 plate appearances in the big leagues. It’s perhaps no surprise, then, that the Rangers have indicated that they’d prefer to have him start 2017 in the minors. Ryan Rua provides the Rangers with another option at first, and could come in particularly handy since he bats righty while Gallo is a lefty. But his track record is somewhat limited as well. Profar is another possibility at first base.

The Rangers are also thin at DH, since Carlos Beltran is set to depart. Re-signing Beltran (who wants to keep playing next season) would be an obvious move to improve at DH, but it wouldn’t have the benefit of also providing insurance at first. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News suggests one solution would be a reunion with Mike Napoli, who bats right-handed and has had a solid year with Cleveland. A more up-market target could be Edwin Encarnacion, whose big bat would be an exciting fit in Texas and who has already been connected to the Rangers. In any case, acquiring one player for first base or DH would seem to be nearly mandatory.

Ian DesmondWith Shin-Soo Choo and Nomar Mazara, the corner outfield appears set. But it’s unclear who will stand between them, with both Ian Desmond and Carlos Gomez eligible for free agency. Either of them could return. Desmond appears to be the higher priority of the two, although the team has expressed interest in re-signing Gomez as well. The Rangers extended Desmond a qualifying offer, and he would be wise to decline it, his misadventures with the qualifying offer last offseason notwithstanding. He’s still just 31 and produced 3.3 fWAR while earning praise for his clubhouse presence, so he seems like a good bet to land a hefty multi-year deal this winter. Gomez, too, should be sought after on the free agent market, thanks to his turnaround following his release by the Astros. Expect the Rangers to be in touch with both players until or unless they sign elsewhere.

Texas will need to balance its issues in center field and 1B/DH with its needs in the rotation. Hamels, Darvish and Perez will be back, but there’s flux beyond that. The Rangers paid Derek Holland a $1.5MM buyout rather than exercising his $11MM option. Holland’s last strong, healthy season was 2013, and he’s a different player than he was then — his fastball velocity has dropped about two MPH, and his offspeed stuff isn’t nearly as effective. He only recently turned 30, but he produced just a 4.95 ERA, 5.6 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 in yet another injury-riddled season in 2016. While he could theoretically return, the Rangers surely hope to do better.

They also face the departure of 37-year-old Colby Lewis, who’ll return to the open market. Like Holland, Lewis had health problems this season, missing two months due to a lat issue. Perhaps the Rangers could bring Lewis back on another cheap one-year deal, but he’s showing serious signs of decline, despite a 3.71 ERA last season. His strikeout rate fell for the third straight season to 5.6 K/9, coinciding with a velocity drop to around the 87-MPH range. He also remains a fly-ball pitcher, making him somewhat of an awkward fit for the Rangers’ home ballpark.

The Rangers’ other rotation options are dubious. A.J. Griffin deserves congratulations for pitching 119 innings in 2016 after missing two years to injury, but he also produced just a 5.07 ERA, with peripherals to match; he’ll likely be non-tendered. Nick Martinez and Chi Chi Gonzalez likewise showed little in their limited opportunities. Top prospect Yohander Mendez looks like he could eventually develop into a solid lefty rotation option, but given his very limited experience above Class A+, he should probably start 2017 in Triple-A.

That means the Rangers will head into this offseason looking for at least one starter. As has been amply discussed here at MLBTR, the free agent market for starting pitching is weak. That doesn’t mean the Rangers won’t pursue higher-ranked pitchers in a market topped by Rich Hill, Ivan Nova, Jeremy Hellickson, and surprising entrant Jason Hammel. But they’ll also likely check out the trade market, which they might favor anyway, since their current 2017 payroll (including Lucroy and several key arbitration-eligible players) already amounts to somewhere around $130MM.

Despite paying fairly hefty prospect prices in recent trades (particularly the pair of deals that netted Lucroy, Jeremy Jeffress, Hamels and Jake Diekman in return for Lewis Brinson, Luis Ortiz, Ryan Cordell, Nick Williams, Jorge Alfaro, Jerad Eickhoff, Alec Asher, Jake Thompson and Matt Harrison), the Rangers have more than enough prospect depth to make a trade, thanks in part to their heavy spending in Latin America in recent years. One wonders, then, if there might be a trade match with the Padres — Friars GM A.J. Preller was previously a Rangers exec who played a key role in the franchise’s Latin spending, and he has Tyson Ross (who is currently recovering from surgery to relieve thoracic outlet syndrome) to deal.

There are, of course, other interesting pitchers potentially available, including many with less problematic health records. And the Rangers could certainly aim to acquire a high-grade arm if they are open-minded about who they’re willing to deal. There have been no specific indications that the Rangers might consider trading Profar (and Daniels has said he envisions keeping him), but a willingness to include Profar in potential deals would surely pique the interest of clubs considering trading starting pitching who’d prefer major league pieces in return.

The Rangers’ bullpen wasn’t a strength in 2016, and the team was especially poor in the first half of the season, when Tom Wilhelmsen, Cesar Ramos, closer Shawn Tolleson and others struggled greatly. Texas relievers mostly recovered in the second half, though, and the bullpen looks to be in reasonably good shape going forward. Tolleson, long ago replaced at closer by Sam Dyson, has already been outrighted. Dyson, Matt Bush, Alex Claudio, Jake Diekman and Tony Barnette all pitched well this season and are slated to return, and Jeffress (an underrated part of the Lucroy trade) provides the Rangers with another controllable bullpen asset. Keone Kela, Dario Alvarez and Jose Leclerc also all showed at least some potential to blossom into reliable bullpen cogs at some point. As with many contending teams, the Rangers surely would not mind adding a bit of relief depth, and could reasonably consider pursuing some of the top-available closers. (If they were to add someone, they would probably prefer a righty.) But they now have enough talent that it doesn’t need to be a top priority.

Nonetheless, the Rangers appear headed toward a tricky offseason. They have plenty of talent, and figure to contend in 2017 yet again. But they also have a number of key positions yet to fill, and will face a tough free agent market with some apparent payroll constraints. Their offseason will be defined by how they navigate those choppy waters as they attempt to find center field, first base and starting pitching help.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2016-17 Offseason Outlook MLBTR Originals Texas Rangers

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Notes On Greg Holland’s Showcase

By Jeff Todd | November 8, 2016 at 8:54am CDT

Free agent righty Greg Holland took the hill for scouts yesterday as he sets the stage for his return to action. The former Royals closer missed all of 2016 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and he’ll play an interesting role in the market with multiple big-payroll clubs among those seeking power arms at the back of their respective bullpens. Despite the long injury layoff, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes rates Holland 23rd in earning power among free agents, noting that a wide variety of organizations could pursue him. Joel Sherman of the New York Post covered the showcase, and we’ve also heard additional reports about which teams were represented.

Here’s the latest:

  • The most important aspect of the appearance was Holland’s health, and Sherman writes that scouts came away feeling optimistic in that regard after seeing 35 pitches. Though the typically fireballing righty sat in the 89 to 90 mph range with his fastball, he’s obviously still building up arm strength. One scout explained that Holland worked with “good extension” in showing off his heater and ballyhooed slider, suggesting he’s ready to continue working back to his prior form.
  • Agent Scott Boras argued that his client, who’ll soon turn 31, represents a great value for teams unwilling or unable to sign top closers Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen, and Mark Melancon. He predicted a multi-year deal, with a two-year arrangement laden with incentives possibly making sense for all involved. It remains to be seen just how much cash teams will be willing to promise Holland, who had faltered in 2015 while pitching through the elbow problems that ultimately resulted in surgery. But the upside is undeniable: from 2011 through 2014, he compiled 256 1/3 innings of 1.86 ERA pitching with 12.6 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9.
  • All told, about sixty scouts were on hand to watch, says Sherman, with about 18 clubs putting eyes on the righty. We had previously heard that the Giants, Red Sox, Rangers, and Yankees would be joined by the Twins in attendance. Sherman notes that GM Bobby Evans and a top scouting exec were on hand for the closing-needy Giants, with the Yankees also sending top talent evaluators. He also lists the Dodgers, Blue Jays, and Phillies as organizations that sent reps. The Royals, too, were watching their former hurler, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets, as were the division-rival Tigers, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (Twitter link). And the two top NL East clubs — the Nationals and Mets — were also intrigued enough to send scouts, according to Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post (via Twitter) and ESPNNewYork.com’s Adam Rubin.
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Edwin Encarnacion Drawing Strong Early Interest

By Jeff Todd | November 8, 2016 at 8:04am CDT

Free agent slugger Edwin Encarnacion will hit the market in search of as many as five guaranteed years at as much as $25MM annually, his agent Paul Kinzer tells TSN. Clubs have already been in touch about the first baseman and DH, who ranks second on MLBTR’s list of the top fifty free agents.

As Kinzer notes, the market will dictate Encarnacion’s ultimate price. One major factor could be whether National League teams will join their American League competitors in pursuing him. “He proved this year that he is a solid first baseman and I think that will make him attractive to National League teams as well,” said Kinzer. Of course, it’s fair to wonder whether those organizations will believe he can man the position over the life of such a lengthy contract.

The agent opined that there could be 11 teams in pursuit of Encarnacion. We’ve already heard that the Blue Jays are making a play to retain him, and Kinzer tells WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford that he also sees the division-rival Red Sox as a great fit. Encarnacion loves hitting in Boston, says Kinzer, and also likes the idea of stepping into the sizable shoes of fellow Dominican David Ortiz. The Astros and Rangers are at least two other hypothetical landing spots, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports notes on Twitter.

It’s possible that things could move quickly, Kinzer also tells Bradford, with some teams having already shown a willingness to make an early splash. “Last year moved pretty quick on a lot of higher guys, so we’ll see,” he said. “The only thing this time is the collective bargaining agreement [defining the luxury tax threshold], how that works out.” Encarnacion, too, is ready to make a decision if the terms are to his liking. “If he feels comfortable and he feels like he’s treated fairly, he can pull the trigger fairly rapidly,” said Kinzer.

Since he’s obviously set to reject the Jays’ qualifying offer, any team signing Encarnacion will need to sacrifice a draft pick to add him — even Toronto, which would otherwise add a selection — but it’s certainly arguable that he’s a big enough piece that it won’t impact his earning power too significantly. Kinzer trumpets Encarnacion’s quiet but positive clubhouse presence, hard-working approach, conditioning and health. Teams will weigh all of these factors, along with his outstanding track record at the plate (.272/.367/.544 over his last five seasons), against his age and defensive limitations in deciding just how hard to push.

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Ten Players To Receive Qualifying Offers

By Steve Adams | November 7, 2016 at 4:06pm CDT

Major League teams had until 5pm ET today to extend qualifying offers to their impending free agents — a decision that could significantly impact the market for a number of players this winter. For those unfamiliar with the process, the collective bargaining agreement stipulates that teams can make a “qualifying offer” to free agents that spent the entire season on the roster — midseason trades and signings are ineligible — if they wish to secure draft pick compensation for the loss of that player. The QO is a set one-year value determined by averaging the salaries of the top 125 players in the league. This year, the value of that sum comes to $17.2MM.

A player will have one week to survey the market and determine whether he wishes to accept the QO or reject in search of a more lucrative free-agent deal. If a player accepts the offer — something that has happened only three times since the system’s implementation in 2012 (Matt Wieters, Colby Rasmus and Brett Anderson) — that player is considered signed for the following season at $17.2MM. The contract is considered a free-agent deal, and as such, that player is not allowed to be traded without his consent until June 15.

If the player rejects a QO, he’s free to sign with any team for any amount (including the team from which he rejected the QO). However, whichever team signs a player that has rejected a QO must surrender its top unprotected pick in the upcoming draft (unless the player re-signs with the team that made the QO). The first 10 selections are protected, so those clubs would only be required to part with their second-highest pick. A team that signs multiple players that have rejected a QO continues to forfeit its top unprotected pick for each subsequent signing. The team that lost the free agent in question, meanwhile, will receive a compensatory draft pick at the end of the first round. The order of comp picks, like the draft order itself, is determined based upon the previous year’s standings.

Last year there were a record 20 players to receive QOs (valued at $15.8MM based on 2015 salaries). There should be fewer this year, given the weak free-agent market, but there should still be a double-digit total of QOs extended. Here’s a list of who will reportedly receive qualifying offers thus far, and we’ll update this throughout the day and include the full list when the 5:00pm deadline has passed:

  • Mark Trumbo, Orioles (link)
  • Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies (link)
  • Yoenis Cespedes, Mets (link)
  • Neil Walker, Mets (link)
  • Edwin Encarnacion, Blue Jays (link)
  • Jose Bautista, Blue Jays (link)
  • Ian Desmond, Rangers (link)
  • Dexter Fowler, Cubs (link)
  • Kenley Jansen, Dodgers (link)
  • Justin Turner, Dodgers (link)

For a more in-depth explanation of the qualifying offer system, you can reference back to our post Explaining The Qualifying Offer System from last October. In the past, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes has also spoken to both agents and general managers about the importance of avoiding the qualifying offer and the impact it has on teams’ decisions. MLBTR’s Jeff Todd, meanwhile, penned a pair of insightful posts in an effort to contextualize and assess the QO system and its purposes on the heels of the 2013-14 offseason.

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Rangers To Decline Derek Holland’s Option

By Steve Adams | November 7, 2016 at 2:25pm CDT

NOVEMBER 7: Texas has not been able to find a trade partner and will officially decline Holland’s option today, per MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (via Twitter).

OCTOBER 31, 8:45pm: Texas has informed Holland that his option won’t be picked up — at least, not to play with the Rangers, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan. It isn’t clear at this point what kinds of scenarios the Rangers are weighing with regard to the southpaw.

Holland could conceivably be moved for another veteran with a reasonably hefty salary or instead be cashed in for some prospect value. It’s also possible that Texas could contribute cash to boost the return. While there isn’t an immense amount of surplus value in Holland’s contract, interested rivals will surely be intrigued at the possibility of getting him for a one-year commitment with another available option year rather than possibly being forced to promise more to woo him via free agency.

7:11pm: The Rangers are willing to trade left-hander Derek Holland, over whom they hold an $11MM club option with a $1.5MM buyout, reports Jon Heyman of FanRag Sports. Heyman hears that Holland may have played his final game as a member of the Rangers, writing that they’d prefer to move him rather than keep him on the books. Furthermore, he tweets that a few teams are showing interest in Holland, and a trade would happen “soon” if it were to take place. The timing component of that followup isn’t much of a surprise, as teams have until five days after the conclusion of the World Series to decide on the options for their players, but it’s certainly notable that teams are expressing interest.

While Holland may not appear like a highly appealing trade candidate on the heels of a disappointing season, there are a few reasons to believe that clubs would be willing to take him on at $11MM next year. First and foremost, the free-agent market for starting pitching is a veritable wasteland this offseason, with the top names available including Rich Hill, Jeremy Hellickson and Ivan Nova. Sheer supply and demand should lead to interest in Holland, especially if the Rangers are willing to pick up a bit of the tab or to take on another fairly notable contract in return.

At 30 years old, Holland is still young enough to believe that there could be a rebound in his bottom-line results, which admittedly weren’t pretty in 2016. Holland had his healthiest season since 2013 this year — he’s missed time previously due to shoulder and knee injuries — but he pitched his way out of the rotation and ultimately finished the year with a 4.95 ERA in 107 1/3 innings. His average fastball velocity was 93.6 mph during a terrific 2013 season, but injuries and aging caused that mark to dip to 91.7 mph this past season. Accordingly, Holland’s K/9 rate has dipped from 8.0 to 5.6, and his ground-ball rate fell south of 40 percent this season as well.

None of that paints a very good picture, of course, but Holland’s unsightly ERA would be nearly a full run lower were it not for an 11-run drubbing that was handed out by the Blue Jays in Toronto back on May 5. He went on to post a 4.42 ERA from that point forth and at one point went through a stretch of 10 outings where he delivered seven quality starts and posted a 3.65 ERA. While the overall season was one to forget, there were glimpses of the pitcher that once looked to be developing into a Rangers rotation mainstay. It’s not uncommon for rebound candidates to get several million dollars in free agency anyway, and Holland’s contract comes with the upside of a club option for the 2018 season. If he’s able to rebound even to the point where he pitches like a solid fourth starter, Holland would prove to be a nice value with that extra year of club control.

The lack of quality hurlers on the market was one of the primary reasons that I recently examined a number of borderline club options for starting pitchers, including Holland, and opined that teams would be wise to exercise the options even if the ultimate outcome was that those arms would be traded. Based on Heyman’s report, it sounds like the Rangers could potentially move Holland even before that decision is due, and it’s certainly not out of the question that others such as Jaime Garcia and Clay Buchholz could find themselves in a similar boat. Certainly, teams with club options over borderline players are feeling out the trade market right now in similar fashion to the Rangers, as evidenced by Ken Rosenthal’s report from earlier today that the likes of Pat Neshek, Fernando Rodney and Carlos Ruiz are all available in trade talks.

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