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Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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For the first time in a while, the Nationals enter the winter with a variety of question marks and a lack of linear solutions.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Max Scherzer, SP: $190MM through 2021 ($105MM deferred, payable in seven installments of $15MM over 2022-2028)
  • Ryan Zimmerman, 1B: $72MM through 2019 (including buyout of 2020 club option, $10MM personal services contract)
  • Jayson Werth, OF: $42MM through 2017
  • Gio Gonzalez, SP: $12.5MM through 2016 (includes buyout of 2017 club option)
  • Jonathan Papelbon, RP: $11MM through 2016 ($3MM deferred to 2017)
  • Yunel Escobar, INF: $8MM through 2016 (including buyout of 2017 club option)
  • Bryce Harper, OF: $5MM through 2016 (remains eligible for arbitration through 2018)

Arbitration Eligibles (projections via MLB Trade Rumors)

Options

Free Agents

Ian Desmond (declined qualifying offer), Doug Fister, Denard Span, Matt Thornton, Jordan Zimmermann (declined qualifying offer)

The 2015 season was filled with disappointment and controversy for the Nats, who entered the year heavily favored in the NL East. Underperformance abounded on a talented roster, much as occurred in 2013, and GM Mike Rizzo will now look for a similar bounce back.

Once again, there will be a new skipper in the dugout, though this time the outgoing manager (Matt Williams) was fired. (Davey Johnson’s retirement had long been planned.) Dusty Baker got the nod, but not until the team had engaged in a highly publicized dalliance with Bud Black. Washington was openly mocked for reportedly looking to get a manager on the cheap, though the team obviously reached terms with Baker and seems to have spent big on highly-regarded new pitching coach Mike Maddux.

That was hardly the way the team wanted to start the winter — especially after a late fade punctuated by an ugly dugout fight in which high-price closer Jonathan Papelbon tried to choke superstar Bryce Harper.

In many ways, that incident frames the team’s offseason. Papelbon was the team’s major deadline addition, unseating Drew Storen as the closer but bringing the promise of an excellent 1-2 punch in the late innings. That combo started out well, but it (and the team’s season) fell apart as Williams mismanaged, Storen faded, and Papelbon raged.

Now, the question is whether the Nationals will shop Papelbon, Storen, or both. Harper has reportedly chatted with Papelbon in an effort at conciliation. And GM Mike Rizzo says that both righties will remain with the team unless a “real baseball offer” comes in. That leaves at least some window for either or both to stay on in D.C. for the final year of their respective contracts.

Of course, the club badly needs pen arms. Washington has been tied to upper-tier trade candidates such as Aroldis Chapman since the trade deadline, and is one of many teams with reported interest in top free agent Darren O’Day. Significant additions of that kind would probably enter the picture (and the payroll) as Papelbon and/or Storen depart.

Regardless what happens at the back end, the Nats face a lot of questions in the pen. Lefty Felipe Rivero, an underappreciated piece of the Jose Lobaton/Nate Karns deal, had a nice rookie campaign. Righty Blake Treinen still has a huge arm, though he’ll need to take a step forward in harnessing it. We’ve yet to hear conclusively whether the team will take the risk on Craig Stammen and his projected $2.4MM salary after he missed the entire season with arm surgery. He’s expected to be ready for the spring, but even if he’s healthy, he’ll only be stepping back into the void left by Aaron Barrett, who’ll miss most or all of 2016. David Carpenter is another injury/arb question mark. There are other options in the organization, including Rafael Martin, Sammy Solis, and Matt Grace,

Tanner Roark could end up back in the pen if he’s bumped from the rotation, and some less experienced starters — A.J. Cole, Taylor Jordan, Taylor Hill, and Austin Voth — potentially could as well. But there are a lot of question marks in that group, and it seems likely that the Nationals will be hunting for relief arms at all levels of the market.

The rotation, on the other hand is set … probably. You could’ve said the same last year, after all, and the club added Max Scherzer on top of an already highly-regarded staff. That group fell shy of expectations, and will lose Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister to free agency, but still ought to be pretty good. Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, and Gio Gonzalez form a good (and potentially excellent) trio at the top, Joe Ross was highly impressive in his debut last year, and Roark still profiles as a sturdy innings eater. The club also has some options and upside behind that group, with Cole perhaps ready for a real opportunity and consensus top overall pitching prospect Lucas Giolito not far behind (and ascending at a rapid pace).

Of course, Ross was mistakenly overlooked by many when news broke that he’d been traded to D.C. Taking top billing in that swap was Trea Turner, a swift young shortstop who got a brief taste of the big leagues last year. It will be quite a lot to ask of him to step in directly for the departing Ian Desmond — who, it should be noted, leaves big shoes despite a rough 2015 — but the Nats have other options as well. Yunel Escobar was acquired last winter due, in part, to his ability to step in at short for 2016. Danny Espinosa remains an outstanding defender and showed more with the bat last year, making him a platoon option up the middle. And Turner could ultimately be joined by another promising youngster, Wilmer Difo, as a double-play pairing. He, too, got a cup of coffee last year with the big club and could conceivably enter the picture this coming season.

The aforementioned group of players could combine in some form to occupy the middle infield positions. But we’ve heard whispers that the team could consider trading away Escobar, possibly in a reversal of the move (well-compensated reliever for well-compensated infielder) that brought him to D.C. in the first place. In that scenario, perhaps, the club would add a left-handed-hitting infielder to join the mix. Turner and Escobar, like most of the other Nats regulars, hit from the right side. And while Espinosa and Difo are both switch hitters, both are historically much more effective against southpaws.

It might not be out of the question, then, for the team to pursue a player like Daniel Murphy or Ben Zobrist. Both would add another left-handed bat to a heavily right-handed mix while contributing depth to the infield. (The latter hits from both sides of the plate.) Fellow free agent Kelly Johnson might represent a budget version of that type of player.

Adding another infield piece makes all the more sense when one considers the durability questions that still follow both Anthony Rendon and first baseman Ryan Zimmerman, both of whom are all but certain (injuries aside) to occupy the starting jobs at the infield corners. Much the same holds for left fielder Jayson Werth, who is aging and has been on the DL quite a bit recently — though, generally, his stints have been for acute injuries that might not reflect any particular long-term concerns.

There are in-house reserve options at the corners, but there are limits to their function. First baseman, bench bat, and emergency outfielder Clint Robinson did a nice job at the plate and could represent a cheap piece to pair with Zimmerman, he’s of limited utility in the National League given his poor glove on the grass. Much the same holds true of right-handed power source Tyler Moore, except that he doesn’t have as obvious a function on the team. A more versatile utility piece — such as those mentioned above — would also supply some support in the outfield while opening up opportunities to gain the platoon advantage.

Of course, there’s a more direct outfield need in center. Denard Span is hitting free agency, and the fact that he didn’t receive a qualifying offer — making him, arguably, the most eligible candidate who did not — signals that there’s little likelihood of a reunion. That leaves the toolsy but strikeout-prone Michael A. Taylor in position to take over. He’s a premier defender with legitimate power and wheels on the basepaths, but he’s still a question mark in terms of getting on base.

With Taylor ready but still raw, the club appears to have two primary routes available. The easier, more straightforward one would be to add a quality fourth outfielder who is capable of playing center and swings from the left side (so as to complement Taylor and also Werth). Though Matt den Dekker could fill that role, too, the team will probably try to do better while keeping him around for depth.

On this year’s free agent market, Gerardo Parra makes for the most obvious fit, and the Nats reportedly tried to add him at the trade deadline. A swap might also procure that sort of option. Rizzo has shown a proclivity for dealing for veterans on affordable, mid-length contracts, with Span, Fister, and Lobaton all representing examples. Brett Gardner of the Yankees, Leonys Martin of the Rangers, and Ender Inciarte of the Diamondbacks are a few names that come to mind, and all of those teams could well have interest in Storen in a swap. The Blue Jays, too, might like the idea of building out the back of their pen and could stand to part with Ben Revere. And depending upon what direction the Cardinals go, Jon Jay could be a target.

The catching position also carries some uncertainty. Wilson Ramos had a tough season in 2015, and is now just one year away from free agency. The same as true of Lobaton, the switch-hitting reserve, who could theoretically end up non-tendered despite his reasonable salary. It’s not as if there’s a ready replacement coming through the minors, as the team’s nearest catching prospect — 22-year-old Pedro Severino — hasn’t yet shown enough bat to profile as an upper-division regular. There was some reason to believe that Washington could make a run at Matt Wieters in free agency, but obviously there wasn’t enough interest there for the backstop to decline his qualifying offer, and he’s no longer available. An upgrade, if any, would have to come via trade. While that’s far from certain at this point, one would have to think the Nats would at least want to know the price on Jonathan Lucroy if he’s shopped.

If Rizzo (or his bosses) wants to shake things up, it’s not out of the question for the Nats to add a major free agent in the outfield. Indeed, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes pegged D.C. as the likeliest landing spot for the tough-to-call Justin Upton. Presumably, an addition of that kind would mean that Harper — or, potentially the new player himself — would play somewhat out of position in center. Personally, I see Jason Heyward as the best match of the major free agent outfielders, since he hits from the left side and would probably be the most capable defender in center of the bunch. As I explained in a profile of his free agent case, Heyward also might command a slightly lesser AAV and could seek an opt-out clause. And the Nationals’ ownership has shown quite an affinity for complicated contract structures that spread financial commitments out over time. But those possibilities still seem fairly speculative. Indeed, Rizzo said recently that he doesn’t expect the team to “be big players for one of the big free agent outfielders.”

Truly bold action could come from elsewhere. Strasburg showed that he can still produce at an ace level down the stretch last year, and would be a highly appealing rental arm at his salary. The Nationals would surely be able to find a substantial return if they shopped him, and the team was reportedly willing to consider deals last winter for Desmond and Zimmermann. I suspect that Rizzo would be willing to move him in the right deal, but am skeptical that a sufficient offer would come in.

More likely, albeit still rather remote, is the extension route. Strasburg may be too close now to free agency to take a serious pass at negotiations, particularly since he looks like the best pitcher on next year’s market by a landslide. But his down-and-up 2015 could leave him willing to sacrifice some money to relieve some risk. Similarly, now could be the time to float a proposal to Rendon, who had an injury-filled 2015, though he’s still four years from free agency. And, of course, there’s always the at-least-theoretical possibility of getting something done with Harper, who met and exceeded the enormous expectations with a historically-relevant campaign last year. Locking him up, in turn, might well require a record-setting contract — a topic that I explored and put to a reader vote a little while back.

Rumors of the Nationals’ demise are premature. True, the core of the team is no longer the same as the 2012 iteration and its successors. But many of the same pieces are still in place, and the organization has supplemented quite nicely. Indeed, as noted above, a whole new wave of talent — Ross, Giolito, Turner, Taylor, and more — is not only lined up but designed to fit with the team’s needs. But patience only holds so long when the talent level (and payroll) is as high as it has been in recent campaigns, and Rizzo will need to be at his creative best to re-energize the big league roster without sacrificing too much prospect value and/or spending capacity.

2015 Qualifying Offer Decisions

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The deadline or players to accept or reject their one-year, $15.8MM qualifying offers was today at 5pm ET. We already know that Colby Rasmus will become the first player to ever accept a qualifying offer, and Marco Estrada reached a two-year deal with the Blue Jays. Brett Anderson also accepted his qualifying offer from the Dodgers.

Here are the updates on the rest of the 20 players that received qualifying offers one week ago today…

  • Ian Desmond will reject the Nationals’ offer, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports on Twitter. He’ll be joined on the open market by Jordan Zimmermann, who did the same, per a tweet from MLB.com’s Bill Ladson.
  • While Brett Anderson will be returning on a one-year deal, Howie Kendrick and Zack Greinke have rejected their qualifying offers from the Dodgers, Dylan Hernandez of the Los Angeles Times reports (Twitter links),
  • It’s an obvious one, but Alex Gordon will hit the open market rather than taking a one-year deal from the Royals, Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com reports on Twitter. Likewise, Justin Upton and Ian Kennedy of the Padres will participate in the open market his fall (per Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune, on Twitter) and Dexter Fowler has turned down his offer from the Cubs, as Paul Sullivan of 670thescore.com tweets.
  • The Cardinals will stand to pick up draft choices if Jason Heyward and John Lackey sign elsewhere, as they too have rejected the offer, per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter).
  • Daniel Murphy and Jeff Samardzija have declined their offers, per reports from Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (via Twitter) and Dan Hayes of CSNChicago.com (also via Twitter).
  • Gallardo has declined his QO, Stevenson now tweets.
  • As expected, Hisashi Iwakuma has turned down the qualifying offer issued to him by the Mariners, Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets.

Earlier Updates

  • Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram hears differently on Gallardo, reporting that he’s still deciding whether or not to accept (links to Twitter). Gallardo’s camp has spoken to multiple other clubs about a deal, but the righty is still mulling a return to his hometown team.
  • Yovani Gallardo will decline the Rangers’ qualifying offer in search of a multi-year contract, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. Gallardo never seemed likely to accept the deal, though there may have been a bit of temptation given the fact that Gallardo is a Fort Worth native. Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News tweets that he spoke to Gallardo’s agent, Bobby Witt, and was told that he’s yet to officially inform the Rangers one way or the other (Twitter link).

Those who are unfamiliar with the process can refer to MLBTR’s explanation of the qualifying offer system for full details.

Free Agent Notes: Kim, Zobrist, Davis, Braves

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Korean outfielder Hyeon-Soo Kim (or, alternatively anglicized, Hyun-soo Kim) has reached free agency and hopes to sign with an MLB club, Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes. (Because he is a free agent, he will not need to go through a posting process.) The 27-year-old corner outfielder  doesn’t quite have the power numbers of Byung-Ho Park, but has delivered good pop in the hitter-friendly KBO while taking walks more than he strikes out. He’s a .318/.406/.488 lifetime hitter, suggesting a nice blend of contact, patience, and pop, though he’s more of a 20 home run threat than a 40+ bomb KBO masher. Passan cites at least one scout that sees the left-handed-hitting Kim as a possible regular left fielder, and says he could have significant earning power this winter.

Here’s more on the market:

  • The Nationals have interest in Ben Zobrist, though he’s not viewed as a top priority, James Wagner of the Washington Post reports. That’s not exactly surprising, for all the familiar reasons, but the possible fit in D.C. does seem to be a good one since the club could use a left-handed bat capable of playing second and the corner outfield. (Even better, Zobrist is a switch-hitter.)
  • Meanwhile, GM Mike Rizzo indicated at the meetings that the team isn’t looking to bring back Denard Span, Wagner also reports. That’s even less surprising, of course. Rizzo indicated that the club feels good about Michael A. Taylor in center and doesn’t feel the need to add a new regular option there.
  • As with the rival Nats, the Mets plan to speak with Zobrist’s representatives at Octagon, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets. New York is well aware that Zobrist will have a broad market, though, Puma adds.
  • Did I mention that there’d be wide interest in Zobrist? The Cardinals, too, have interest in him, Buster Olney of ESPN.com writes on Twitter. It’s not exactly clear how St. Louis would deploy Zobrist, but it’s possible to imagine him seeing time at more or less every position on the diamond (with a few exceptions) with the club.
  • Agent Scott Boras made clear at the GM Meetings this week that he intends to pitch Chris Davis as a legitimate outfield option, as ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick writes. In addition to rare power, says Boras, Davis is more than capable of playing a passable right field for at least a year or two. That is indeed an intriguing idea, since it would open up some new possibilities, and Crasnick explains that there are good reasons to believe it’s plausible.
  • Despite already adding A.J. Pierzynski, the Braves could sign another backstop to pair with him, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports (Twitter links). But any such signing isn’t likely to be an expensive one, he cautions, which seems to suggest that Matt Wieters won’t be a target. Of course, that raises the question of what the team’s plans are for Christian Bethancourt, who has increasingly been mentioned as a change-of-scenery trade candidate. All this chatter occurred before Atlanta agreed to trade away Andrelton Simmons, though, so it’s hard to know whether a change in the club’s strategy will follow.
  • Multiple agents suggested to Olney (Twitter link) that the teams with protected first-round picks don’t seem particularly inclined to spend a lot of money in free agency. That would appear to suggest that qualifying-offer-bound free agent may need to bear the full brunt of the draft pick compensation owed by any team signing them, since there will be fewer clubs that can add them at the cost of only a later pick. Of course, with so many players having received the QO, it’s likely that there will be a few teams that sign more than one, reducing the unit cost of the lost draft picks.

Nationals Notes: Strasburg, Zobrist, Ramos, Desmond

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Nationals right-hander Stephen Strasburg had a non-cancerous growth surgically removed from his back shortly after the season ended, agent Scott Boras told reporters, including James Wagner of the Washington Post, at today’s GM Meetings. As Wagner points out, the news contradicts a statement made yesterday by Nats GM Mike Rizzo, in which he said the Nationals didn’t have any postseason surgeries. Back and oblique issues sent Strasburg to the disabled list on multiple occasions this season, and the right-hander carried a 6.55 ERA through his first 10 starts before turning around and dealing to the tune of a 1.76 ERA with a 110-to-12 K/BB ratio across his final 13 starts (82 innings). It’s easy to imagine the growth serving as the root of many of Strasburg’s back issues in 2015. The former No. 1 overall draft pick is arbitration eligible for the final time this offseason and will likely be the market’s top free agent following the 2016 season.

A few more notes on the Nationals…

  • Wagner also reports (via Twitter) that the Nationals are interested in Ben Zobrist. Washington has been interested in Zobrist in the past as well, and the versatile switch-hitter could factor into the team’s plans in the infield or in the outfield. Of course, the Nats would face steep competition in the market for Zobrist, who is drawing widespread interest due to that versatility and his long track record of above-average production at the plate.
  • While many have speculated that the Nationals could look to upgrade at catcher, Rizzo spoke highly of Wilson Ramos despite a down season in 2015. “He was No. 1 in throwing runners out. He was up for a Gold Glove,” said Rizzo. “He was one of the top in National League in home runs and RBI. He had a down year in getting on base, not like he should, and hitting for average. But as far as a guy, as catchers go, really had some impact in the lineup with power, RBI and catch-throw skills were fine. We like Ramos. He’s a guy that it would be difficult to find a better replacement for.” The Nats have been listed as a speculative fit for Matt Wieters, especially considering Ramos’ 2015 struggles and his status as a free agent next winter. However, Rizzo’s comments line up with previous reports indicating that Washington will not be a serious player for the market’s top free-agent catcher.
  • Ian Desmond said in a recent MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM appearance (MLB.com video link) that he would “love to give [the Nationals] an opportunity to tell me the direction that they’re moving in and go from there” when discussing the Nats. It’s expected that Desmond will sign elsewhere, and while he could sign with any club, he did say in that appearance that he “loves the National League game” and considers himself a “National League guy,” though he of course didn’t rule out signing with an American League club.

Trade Notes: Plouffe, Storen, Papelbon, Rangers, Rays

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If the Twins are able to work out a contract with Korean first baseman Byung-ho Park, the Angels are expected to pursue a trade of third baseman Trevor Plouffe, assuming their third base vacancy hasn’t already been filled by that time, tweets Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. The Twins are intrigued by some of the Angels’ power bullpen arms, including Cam Bedrosian, Fletcher further reports. As he notes, the Twins wouldn’t part with Plouffe solely for Bedrosian, though the Angels certainly have other pieces that could entice Minnesota.

A few more notes pertaining to the trade market as executives discuss swaps at the 2015 GM Meetings…

  • Nationals GM Mike Rizzo says that he’s yet to receive any inquiries on right-hander Stephen Strasburg but has received calls on both Drew Storen and Jonathan Papelbon (via Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (Twitter link). James Wagner of the Washington Post, however, adds (via Twitter) that Rizzo says he won’t move either reliever unless he receives a “real baseball offer.” Many have speculated that the Nats will sell low on Papelbon following his altercation with Bryce Harper and will be forced to do the same with Storen after the Papelbon acquisition strained his relationship with the team. Rizzo’s comments, on the surface, suggest that that’s not the case, though he clearly wouldn’t come right out and say he was looking to move either right-hander.
  • The Rangers are receiving interest in both center fielder Leonys Martin and oft-injured shortstop prospect Jurickson Profar, GM Jon Daniels told reporters, including Stefan Stevenson of the Fort Worth Star Telegram and Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News (links to Twitter). Daniels notes that teams are looking to buy low on both players, though, which isn’t an ideal time to deal a formerly valuable asset. Grant notes that Profar, in particular, is still viewed highly by the organization.
  • The Rays are receiving considerable trade interest in both Brad Boxberger and Jake McGee, tweets Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, but the general sense is that they’d need to be offered “a LOT” for the Rays to deal either reliever. Boxberger is not yet arbitration eligible, so it makes sense that Tampa Bay would value him very highly. However, with McGee slated to earn $4.7MM in arbitration this year (via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz), one can imagine the cost-conscious Rays being reasonably open to offers on McGee.

Heyman’s Latest: Melancon, Closers, Nathan, Astros, Iwakuma

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As we continue to march through a busy day in the rumor mill, here’s the latest from Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com:

  • Pirates closer Mark Melancon has been made available, per Heyman. Pittsburgh seems interested in the possibility of cashing him in and re-deploying an arbitration salary that MLBTR projects to land at a cool $10MM. Melancon joins a loaded trade market that is fronted by appealing potential chips such as Aroldis Chapman (Reds) and Craig Kimbrel (Padres) and which could also include Andrew Miller of the Yankees.
  • And that’s not all, as Shawn Tolleson of the Rangers has drawn interest, with Texas said to be willing to listen but not planning to shop the righty. The Phillies seem willing to part with Ken Giles at the right price. Then, of course, there are Jonathan Papelbon and Drew Storen of the Nationals, either of whom could theoretically be dealt.
  • With teams such as the Yankees and Nationals potentially factoring as both buyers and sellers of late-inning arms, says Heyman, it could end up being a “wild closer’s market.” There are a host of teams with interest in Chapman and Kimbrel. The former is said to be “eminently available” from the Reds, while the latter may not be dealt by the Padres, who Heyman says will not enter a rebuilding phase. As for Miller, New York GM Brian Cashman’s openness to creativity doesn’t mean a deal is likely, with Heyman suggesting a significant player — he suggests the involvement of Stephen Strasburg — would be necessary to pry Miller loose.
  • While he’s only likely to get a make-good deal at this point, Joe Nathan is working his way back and could be ready to throw by May of 2016, Heyman writes. The Tigers would be glad to bring back the soon-to-be 41-year-old on a minor league pact, per the report.
  • While the Astros say they don’t need to do much beside adding left-handed arms to the pen, Heyman says that the club does have a shopping list. If Colby Rasmus departs, a left fielder could be added, while additional relief arms, a starter, and an addition at first base might also be pursued.
  • Heyman also provides a few notes on some players of interest. Free agent second baseman Howie Kendrick is looking for four years. The Pirates are taking offers on first baseman (and DH candidate) Pedro Alvarez. And reliever Steve Cishek will soon become a free agent, as the Cardinals do not intend to tender him a contract.
  • The Mariners still have some work to do after striking an early trade, Heyman writes, with a center fielder and starting pitcher among the needs. Adding to the pen and bolstering the catching corps will also be among the priorities of GM Jerry Dipoto and his staff. Seattle will try to solve its rotation needs by retaining Hisashi Iwakuma, as has widely been reported, with Heyman adding that the club will try to do so with a two-year offer.

NL East Notes: Minor, Braves, Ozuna, Mets, Speier

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The Braves are now uncertain whether or not they’ll tender lefty Mike Minor a contract, David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution reports. Signs had pointed to the team offering arbitration, with Minor likely to earn at or near the $5.6MM level that he set by winning his arbitration case with the team last year. But the 27-year-old has reportedly suffered a setback in his efforts to return from labrum surgery, and has yet to make it back onto a mound. “We think it could happen prior to the tender date,” said GM John Coppolella. “We want to see something, whether it’s off the mound or … we need to see something. We can’t just blindly tender him a contract and put the team at risk. Because every single dollar counts for us.”

  • The Braves suddenly find themselves with a surplus of outfielders after largely committing to shifting Hector Olivera to left field, as MLB.com’s Mark Bowman writes. If Atlanta finds it hard to shed any of the salary owed to Nick Swisher or Michael Bourn, says Bowman, the team may look closer at a trade of Cameron Maybin. But the club’s top executives continue to say they don’t feel pressure to trade Maybin, even after the Olivera move, as O’Brien tweets.
  • The Marlins are indeed interested in trading outfielder Marcell Ozuna, but not at anything less than his market value, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. Of course, as Frisaro notes, the team may find it necessary to trade him if it hopes to accomplish its apparent  goal of adding a quality, controllable pitcher.
  • Mets assistant GM John Ricco says that the club is receiving strong interest in its pitching, as Mike Puma of the New York Post reports on Twitter. That’s not surprising, given the depth and quality of arms present in the organization.
  • Ricco also said that the Mets could look to add an offensive player that is capable of filling in around the diamond, rather than seeking a regular at one spot, Puma tweets. Naturally, that statement calls to mind the possibility of signing Ben Zobrist, but there are other players — including, arguably, Daniel Murphy — who could function in a similar capacity.
  • It may be time for Mets third baseman David Wright to begin a transition across the diamond, Mark Simon of ESPNNewYork.com writes. The veteran and team leader made a thrilling comeback from serious back issues, but showed real difficulty throwing the ball across the diamond, and Rubin argues that now is the time to begin spelling him at the hot corner and working him in at first base.
  • The Nationals are set to add Chris Speier to their coaching staff, either as the third base or bench coach, according to a tweet from MLB.com’s Bill Ladson. The 19-year MLB veteran served as the bench coach under new Nats skipper Dusty Baker when he was with the Reds. Speier has continued on with Cincinnati as a special assistant to GM Walt Jocketty since Baker departed.

Market Notes: Matsuda, Maeda, O’Day, Aoki, Shark, Santana

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There may be another name to watch on the free agent market, as Japanese infielder Nobuhiro Matsuda has declared free agency and is looking for a deal with a major league club, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (via Twitter). The 32-year-old has spent the vast majority of his time at third base while playing for the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league. Matsuda has delivered consistent power numbers over the years, but showed a significant increase in his home run output last year, when he swatted a career-best 35 long balls. However, as Patrick Newman of NPB Tracker notes on Twitter, that tally was likely boosted by a favorable change in his home park’s dimensions. Over 603 plate appearances on the year, Matsuda slashed a robust .287/.357/.533. While his age (and lack of MLB experience) limits his value, the veteran does have the benefit of entering a market that lacks much in the way of hot corner options. And because he was eligible to become a free agent, he won’t need to go through the posting process (or have any part of his potential earnings reduced by a release fee).

Here are more notes from around the game as the free agent market kicks into gear:

  • Japanese righty Kenta Maeda likely won’t be posted until after the “Super 12” tournament is completed in late November, Jon Morosi of FOX Sports reports. His team, the Hiroshima Toyo Carp, is still expected to make the intriguing starter available. MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes took an early look at Maeda as a part of his annual top fifty free agent list, explaining that the Diamondbacks could be a strong contender for his services.
  • Reliever Darren O’Day is drawing a lot of attention early in the offseason, Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports. While a variety of large-budget clubs — including the Tigers, Nationals, Mets, and Yankees — are expected to have interest, Sherman says the Orioles will have a chance to match any offers.
  • Lefty Mark Buehrle still has not told his agents whether or not he’ll pitch next year, Sherman adds. But he’ll draw plenty of interest if he does, as about ten clubs have already reached out to see whether he would be pitching or retiring.
  • Free agent outfielder Nori Aoki is completely healthy after dealing with concussion issues late in the season, agent Nez Balelo tells Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com. The Giants’ decision to decline a seemingly affordable option on the veteran was motivated by a desire for flexibility, Balelo indicated, rather than Aoki’s ability to return at full speed. Aoki remains an often-underappreciated player, and he’ll be an interesting target for teams looking for value in the corner outfield.
  • It’s shaping up as a strong market for righty Jeff Samardzija, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. He struggled mightily in the run prevention department last year, but many executives remain big fans of his stuff and makeup.
  • Southpaw Johan Santana still wants to return in 2016, agent Peter Greenberg tells Jon Morosi of FOX Sports (via Twitter). The 36-year-old’s most recent comeback attempts have been derailed by an array of ailments, but the two-time Cy Young winner is evidently still committed. He last threw in the big leagues in 2012.
  • If you’re interested in reading up on what this winter may have in store, here are a few pieces looking at the market from a broader perspective. In an interesting and well-researched piece, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca explains that the addition of the second Wild Card has made deadline additions more difficult — which, in turn, makes it all the more important to build a team over the winter. The active period of front office turnover that we just experienced may lead to increased activity on the trade market, Sherman suggests.
  • Likewise, a variety of outlets have recently taken different approaches to looking at individual players. ESPN.com’s Buster Olney provides a list of free agents who he thinks could be under-valued on the market. And ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick surveyed executives around the league on a variety of subjects, providing extensive quotes and analysis on different segments of the market.

Bullpen Notes: Miller, O’Day, Soria, Madson

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The Yankees are reportedly open to nearly any scenario this winter, and according to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, that includes trading Andrew Miller. While Heyman is careful to note that the scenario isn’t likely and the Yankees aren’t actively shopping their excellent closer, other clubs have said that Miller’s name is “out there a bit,” as Heyman puts it. Andy Martino of the New York Daily News applauds GM Brian Cashman’s open-mindedness (Twitter link). He speculates that the Yankees could flip Miller for immediate help and then trade prospects to acquire Craig Kimbrel from the Padres, leaving the 2016 club improved overall. The Yankees already have a dominant late-inning arm that could step into the ninth inning in place of Miller, of course, in Dellin Betances, though there’s certainly something to be said for having a pair of shutdown arms to handle the final two-plus innings of a game.

A few more notes from the relief market as the GM Meetings get underway…

  • Preliminary interest in Darren O’Day is “steep,” tweets Heyman, who adds that the Tigers, Cubs, Nationals, Red Sox, Royals and Dodgers are all in at this stage. The 32-year-old O’Day is probably the top relief arm on the market, as he’s coming off a dominant stretch in which he posted a 1.92 ERA in 263 innings over a four-year stretch spanning 2012-15. O’Day landed 33rd on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list, with Tim Dierkes projecting a three-year deal worth about $22.5MM.
  • The Tigers will meet with the representatives for right-hander Joakim Soria at the GM Meetings this week, according to Tony Paul of the Detroit News (links to Twitter). The Tigers traded Soria to the Pirates at this summer’s non-waiver deadline, but that move was carried out by the since-departed Dave Dombrowski, and it stands to reason that new GM Al Avila, who is known to be seeking bullpen upgrades, could want Soria back in the ninth inning in Detroit. Paul adds that the Tigers’ preference between O’Day and Soria could come down to who is more willing to sign first, as the team will want to move onto other needs/targets relatively quickly.
  • Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star tweets that Ryan Madson, who picked up a World Series ring and emphatically re-established himself as a quality big league setup man with the Royals this season, is seeking a multi-year deal on the free agent market. That’s not a huge surprise given the lack of elite relief arms on the free agent market this season and the strong results he delivered in 2015. Madson tallied a 2.13 ERA with 8.2 K/9 against 2.0 BB/9 in 63 1/3 innings with Kansas City this season. He struggled in the ALDS and ALCS before turning in three very strong World Series innings. Tim pegged Madson for a three-year deal in the $15MM range in the aforementioned Top 50 list.

Latest On Byung-ho Park

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8:52am: Yahoo’s Jeff Passan tweets that the White Sox aren’t the winner, either. That leaves the Brewers and Twins in addition to the Cubs and Reds, though the latter duo doesn’t have much of a spot for Park to play (unless Cincinnati feels he can handle left field). Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reported last week that the Twins have scouted Park quite a bit, though the Brewers seem to be a better fit from a roster standpoint, in my eyes.

8:37am: Heyman also eliminates the Rockies and the Phillies from the mix (via Twitter). That leaves the Brewers, Reds, Cubs, White Sox and Twins as the remaining options. As I noted before, the presence of Joey Votto in Cincinnati and Anthony Rizzo on the Cubs’ roster makes that pair of NL teams seem like long shots, to say the least. The White Sox and Twins each have long-term first base options in Jose Abreu and Joe Mauer, though Park could certainly split time at first and DH with either player.

8:22am: The Astros didn’t submit the winning bid for Park, either, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports.

NOV. 9, 7:29am: We’re down to seven possibilities on the mystery team for Park, as ESPN’s Buster Olney (Twitter link) and the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review’s Rob Biertempfel (Twitter link) report that the Pirates have not won the bidding.

There have been reports eliminating all but seven teams from the Park bidding, leaving the Phillies, Brewers, Reds, Cubs, White Sox, Twins and Astros as possibilities. And while the Reds and Cubs are technically possibilities, it’d be surprising to see either NL club post the winning bid on a first baseman, given the stars that each has entrenched at that position. The Rockies haven’t been completely ruled out, though the report below seems to indicate they’re more of a long shot than anything else at this point.

Alan Nero, Park’s agent at Octagon, tells Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review that even he does not yet know which club won the bidding, adding that both league offices were closed over the weekend (Twitter link).

NOV. 8, 9:51pm: The winning bid wasn’t posted by the Royals or Braves, Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan reports (Twitter links).  “It’s safe to assume” the Rays didn’t have the winning bid either, the Tampa Bay Times’ Marc Topkin tweets.

9:10pm: The Athletics and Marlins also didn’t have the top bid, Heyman tweets.

7:24pm: The Mariners and Diamondbacks didn’t place bids on Park, as per tweets from CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman and Zach Buchanan of AZCentral.com.  Also, the Giants can be eliminated from contention, according to Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.  The Rockies might also be out, as MLB.com’s Thomas Harding doesn’t “think anything is happening there.”

2:39pm: Italian artist Michelangelo is famously misquoted as saying that he sculpted the historic David statue by chipping away the parts that did not look like David.  Perhaps that is how we will whittle down the field of suitors for first baseman Byung-Ho Park until we unravel the mystery team that submitted the winning bid to negotiate with the Korean star.  Failing that, we might just have to wait until Monday, when the announcement is formally made.

On Friday, Korea’s Nexen Heroes accepted a $12.85MM bid on the rights to negotiate a big league contract with Park.  As of today, we still don’t know which MLB club won the posting process, but one team out there now has a thirty day window with which to hammer out a deal with one of the winter’s most intriguing and mysterious free agents.

The Blue Jays are not the winning team, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (on Twitter), and the winning bid was not submitted by the Mets, Yankees, Dodgers, or Angels, either (link),  The Cardinals, who are looking at various first base options, tendered an unsuccessful bid for the 29-year-old, according to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  James Wagner of the Washington Post (on Twitter) heard that the Nats did not have interest.  Late last week, the Indians, Tigers, Rangers, Orioles, Padres, and Red Sox were also crossed off the list by various reporters.

If Park and his new club do not reach agreement on a contract, Nexen will lose out on the posting fee and the winning team will have to move on to a Plan B at first base.  The reported $12.85MM fell shy of the $25MM+ posting amount commanded by lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, but it easily tops what the Pirates paid Nexen last year (~$5MM) for the rights to reach a deal with infielder Jung-Ho Kang. After the team-to-team transfer was arrived at, Kang and the Bucs agreed to a four-year, $11MM guarantee.

In the recently-released list of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents, Tim Dierkes predicted that Park would command a $10MM posting fee and a five-year, $40MM contract from the winning team. The first part of that was close, but it remains to be seen how negotiations will proceed.

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