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Trade/FA Notes: Bryant, Jays, Benintendi, Marlins, Cron

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The latest rumblings centering on the trade and free-agent markets in Major League Baseball…

  • The Blue Jays have touched base with the Cubs about the cost of acquiring former NL MVP Kris Bryant, tweets MLB Insider Jon Morosi. At this point, it was practically qualify as oversight if the Blue Jays hadn’t checked in on Bryant, as they’ve made inquiries into just about every big name on the market so far this winter. The two sides haven’t discussed a potential deal for a few weeks, however, suggesting that Bryant constitutes something closer to a back-up plan for the Jays. The Cubs don’t appear particularly close to moving Bryant, so Toronto likely has time to explore their other options before circling back, should Bryant ultimately become a more appealing target.
  • The Marlins are among the teams that have discussed outfielder Andrew Benintendi with the Red Sox, according to Jim Bowden of The Athletic. To this point, though, the two clubs have not been able to agree on compensation. Benintendi would fit the Marlins’ desire to add a corner outfield, having played the majority of his career in left since he debuted in 2016, though he would be a reclamation project for Miami. Once a superstar prospect and effective big leaguer, Benintendi posted average production in 2019 and then endured a nightmarish, injury-shortened campaign last season.
  • Free-agent first baseman C.J. Cron underwent season-ending left knee surgery last August, but he’s doing well now. Cron has been cleared for full activity and should be ready for spring training, Jason Beck of MLB.com tweets. Cron, who just turned 31 last week, looks like one of the best first baseman on an open market that’s low on impact players at that position. He has delivered above-average offensive production throughout his career, evidenced by his lifetime .257/.312/.464 line with 118 home runs in 2,586 plate appearances.

MLBTR Poll: Will The Nationals Unlock Kyle Schwarber’s Potential?

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In a sport known for its protracted regular season and voluminous historical records – playing for a franchise that had been without a championship crown for over a century – Kyle Schwarber established his legacy over a seven-game stretch of the 2016 playoffs. Though he only appeared in five games of the World Series, physical perseverance, inspired play and a confident batting eye turned Schwarber into a Chicago legend at the tender age of 23. His presence as a designated hitter for road contests at Progressive Field played no small part in turning the tide on a 3-1 series deficit (though starting Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta, and Kyle Hendricks in consecutive games didn’t hurt either). Schwarber reached base in half of his 20 plate appearances, and the Cubs won three of four games in Cleveland to take the crown.

While the baseball community largely recognizes that playoff performance is not predictive – nor repeatable – Schwarber is living proof that small samples, at times, do prove enduring. Schwarber will be memorialized for generations in Chicago for his appearance against the Cleveland Indians in 2016.

His myth-making return from season-ending injury is also a warning against our tendency to muddle the narrative of heroes. In that World Series, Schwarber did lengthen the lineup and provide a fear factor that was easier to see in real-time than in box scores after the fact, but it’s fair to wonder if his impact in Cleveland didn’t unwittingly get conflated with his status as a top prospect and his gargantuan output in the 2015 playoffs, when he hit .333/.419/.889 with five home runs in nine playoff games. The years since have only further complicated our ability to manufacture a compact narrative for Schwarber as a ballplayer. For starters, even a .136/.321/.273 line with just one home run, one RBI, two runs scored, and a negative championship win probability over 10 playoff games since 2016 hasn’t totally erased his reputation as a “championship proven” bat.

Further, his stat line in any given year is like an optical illusion (is he black and blue or white and gold?). His production hasn’t matched his reputation, and the advanced metrics don’t match the on-field production. In 2018, Schwarber hit a high-water mark by measure of 3.2 fWAR despite a .238 batting average and career-low 41.5 hard hit percentage. In 2019, he actualizes his “slugger” persona with a .531 slugging percentage, 29 doubles, and 38 home runs. He posted new highs with a 120 wRC+, .282 ISO, and 50.9 hard hit percentage – the third-highest mark in the Majors. The total package still amounted to just 2.1 bWAR/2.6 fWAR – solid numbers, but shy of the line for a presumed All-Star.

Then 2020 happened. His launch angle plummeted, and his .219 BABIP, .204 ISO, .188/.308/.393 line, and 90 wRC+ were all career-worst numbers. When the Cubs non-tendered him rather than pay the projected $7MM to $9MM in arbitration, few were surprised.

But the Nationals paid him $10MM for the 2021 season anyway – and that wasn’t shocking either. After all, Schwarber’s batted ball numbers have made him a popular bounce-back candidate among the Statcast crowd, and it’s not hard to see why: His resume includes finishing in the 95th percentile by exit velocity in 2019 and 2020, the 92nd percentile by barrel percentage in 2017, 2018, and 2019, and that 99th percentile mark by hard hit percentage in 2019.

At the same time, it’s worth considering how much of a role his subpar speed and 28 percent career strikeout rate play in his “under-performance.” He’s not the worst defender in the world, but negative three defensive runs saved in each of the last two seasons doesn’t inspire confidence that he’ll become a plus on that end of the field. Of course, with Victor Robles beside him in the outfield and Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, and Stephen Strasburg (hopefully) missing bats on a regular basis, the Nats seem to believe he doesn’t have to be a gold glove candidate. Besides, should the designated hitter make its way permanently to the National League, he may not have to spend every day in the grass.

The Nationals hope a reunion with Dave Martinez will provide Schwarber a comfortable environment to reset after a disappointing final season in Chicago. Beyond his relationship with Martinez – his bench coach for the first three years of his career – Schwarber will have a new social circle with whom to yuk it up about the ins-and-outs of hitting. That group will include hitting coach Kevin Long, his collegiate buddy Trea Turner, fellow new kid Josh Bell, and phenom Juan Soto. MLB.com’s Jessica Camerato provides video of Schwarber himself breaking down his new team (via Twitter).

Still very much in his prime entering his age-28 season, Schwarber may yet fulfill the legendary potential he established in the 2016 World Series. Given the new faces in the division and the now-rote proficiency of the three-time defending division champion Braves, the Nationals are counting on a big season from Schwarber to help the franchise rebound from a difficult 2020.

All that said, let’s keep this simple. Will Dave Martinez and the Nationals be able to unlock Schwarber’s potential and see him become a devastating middle-of-the-order presence? Or will Schwarber’s Statcast profile continue to betray him as he hits the ball hard but not often enough to truly classify as an elite bat?

Of course, there are many different ways to skin this cat, so let me offer this final framework as one way to simplify. Schwarber’s value proposition is his bat. By wRC+, which attempts to measure offensive contribution, adjusted for park and league, Schwarber has created 13 more runs than the average player over his career. As noted above, his career-high over a full season is 120 wRC+. But he also produced a 131 wRC+ over 273 plate appearances as a rookie in 2015. For context, 35 players posted a wRC+ higher than 130 in 2019, 24 managed that mark in 2018. Can Schwarber be one of those guys in 2021?

Will The Nationals Unlock Kyle Schwarber's Potential?
No 62.34% (5,781 votes)
Yes 37.66% (3,493 votes)
Total Votes: 9,274
(poll link for app users)

Schwarber's wRC+ in 2021 will be...
Between 100 wRC+ and 109 wRC+ 33.31% (2,307 votes)
Between 110 wRC+ and 119 wRC+ 29.13% (2,017 votes)
Under 100 wRC+ 18.12% (1,255 votes)
Between 120 wRC+ and 130 wRC+ 13.16% (911 votes)
Over 130 wRC+ 6.28% (435 votes)
Total Votes: 6,925
(poll link for app users)

Mets, Cubs Had “Recent Trade Talks” About Kris Bryant

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TODAY: “The Mets and Cubs have not spoken in several weeks,” according to SNY’s Andy Martino, and it doesn’t seem likely that the Mets will reignite negotiations about Bryant now that Lindor has been acquired.  However, there is “increasing industry chatter” that Bryant could be traded somewhere “as soon as this weekend.”

JANUARY 7: With one blockbuster trade already in the books for the Mets, could another headline-grabbing swap be in the works?  The Mets and Cubs have had “recent trade talks” concerning a possible Kris Bryant deal, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.

The specific timing of these discussions isn’t known, and it could be possible that the Mets were only looking at Bryant as a fallback option if the Francisco Lindor trade didn’t happen.  Still, given how aggressive the Amazins have been in seeking out high-level talent this offseason, acquiring Bryant on top of Lindor, Carrasco,  Trevor May, James McCann, and any potential other additions can’t be ruled out.

Bryant is projected to earn $18.6MM in his final year of salary arbitration — like Lindor, Bryant is another high-salaried player who is a season away from free agency.  While Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer claimed that payroll considerations weren’t “the focus” of Chicago’s recent deal of Yu Darvish to the Padres, multiple reports have indicated that the Cubs are trying to cut salary, and that pretty much every expensive veteran of note is a potential trade candidate.

While the Cubs surely want a good return back for trading the former NL MVP, the Mets could have an edge in trade talks (at least in terms of the quality of prospects surrendered) simply by offering to take Bryant’s entire contract off of Chicago’s books.  Hypothetically, the Mets could also send an experienced Major League player back to the Cubs as part of a Bryant trade, akin to how the Cubs picked up Zach Davies from San Diego in the Darvish deal.

Moving an experienced player would help make Bryant a cleaner fit into New York’s everyday lineup, as the Mets have projected starters at each of his four potential positions — first base (Pete Alonso), third base (J.D. Davis), and the corner outfield spots (Michael Conforto, Dominic Smith).  It’s safe to assume that Conforto isn’t going anywhere, and the Mets aren’t likely to move Alonso and his four years of team control for just one year of Bryant.  Davis and Smith are more plausible trade candidates, particularly if the Mets were to also sign George Springer and create a further outfield surplus.  Signing Springer could also turn current center fielder Brandon Nimmo into a trade chip, but the Mets could probably like to hang onto Nimmo as a backup option up the middle.

Bryant’s trade value, of course, is further impacted by his underwhelming 2020 performance.  Hampered by multiple nagging injuries all year, Bryant appeared in only 34 of Chicago’s 60 games and hit .206/.293/.351 with four home runs in 147 PA.  That small sample size doesn’t and shouldn’t erase Bryant’s superstar numbers from 2015-19, but it certainly doesn’t help the Cubs in their attempt to get maximum value back for one year of Bryant’s services.

NL Central Notes: Carpenter, Alvarez, Cubs, Lindor, Reds, Eckstein

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After struggling in both 2019 and 2020, Matt Carpenter has reshaped his offseason training routine in advance of what he considers to be a make-or-break year or perhaps even his final year in the big leagues, Carpenter tells Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.  Carpenter’s contract with the Cardinals is up after the 2021 season, unless he records at least 550 plate appearances to trigger an $18.5MM vesting option for 2022.  “As far as guarantees, this is the last guaranteed trip to spring training, period, for me.  Maybe for any baseball team, let alone St. Louis,” Carpenter said.  “I think about that, and that’s why I say it’s such an important season for me personally.  And that’s not even to say whether I want to play past this season.  I just want to finish strong.”

Carpenter is entering his age-35 season, and he is likely correct in guessing that another tough year will greatly lessen his chances at anything beyond a low-cost MLB contract or even a minor league deal next winter.  Carpenter finished ninth in NL MVP voting as recently as 2018, but has since hit .216/.332/.372 over 661 plate appearances in 2019-20.  Between the Cardinals’ COVID-19 outbreak and the compressed schedule of make-up games once they returned to play, Carpenter didn’t feel the 2020 season was “a fair representation, hitting or pitching, good or bad” for the entire club.  Still, Carpenter knows he needs to get on track, saying “the last two seasons, in my eyes, our offense has been about a bat short….I have basically been the one bat missing.  I put a lot of the responsibility for the offensive woes the past two seasons on myself.”

More from the NL Central…

  • As rumors swirl about Kris Bryant trade talks between the Cubs and Mets, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports (via Twitter) that Chicago has a particular interest in Mets catching prospect Francisco Alvarez.  Currently ranked by MLB Pipeline as the 58th-best prospect in all of baseball, it isn’t surprising that the Cubs (and probably many other teams) would like to have Alvarez in their farm system, particularly if Willson Contreras might also soon be dealt away from Wrigleyville.  In regards to a Bryant trade, it seems unlikely that New York would deal Alvarez for just one year of Bryant’s service.  Even with James McCann now signed to a four-year deal, Alvarez might still be the Mets’ catcher of the future since he is only 19 years old, so the Mets surely have their eyes on grooming Alvarez to be ready by the time McCann’s contract is up.
  • “The Reds were not involved in making any push to acquire Francisco Lindor” before the Indians dealt Lindor to the Mets on Tuesday, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon writes.  Acquiring Lindor to fill their hole at shortstop would’ve been quite the pivot for the Reds, whose offseason focus to this point has largely been on cutting salary, between trading Raisel Iglesias to the Angels, non-tendering Archie Bradley, and being open to trade offers for many high-priced stars.  This isn’t to say that Cincinnati might not yet sign a shortstop from amongst the well-known free agent names still on the market, but Lindor was likely a bridge too far, given the prospect cost to pry him away from Cleveland and the likelihood that the Reds wouldn’t be able to sign Lindor to an extension beyond the 2021 season.
  • David Eckstein is leaving the Pirates after two years as a special assistant to the baseball operations department, according to Alex Stumpf of DK Pittsburgh Sports (Twitter link).  Eckstein made the move in order to spend more time with his family.  The former 10-league MLB veteran is best remembered for his role in helping both the 2002 Angels and 2006 Cardinals win the World Series, even capturing Series MVP honors with St. Louis.

Angels Interested In Willson Contreras

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The Angels are making a bid to reunite manager Joe Maddon with his World Series winning backstop in Chicago Willson Contreras, writes the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. No deal is imminent, but the match is certain to raise a few eyebrows because of the potential fit between the two clubs. Given the recent return for ace Yu Darvish, the Cubbies would seem interested in restocking a thin farm system (though it’s possible they consider that box now checked). The Angels, conversely, have a clear need for some gravitas behind the plate and an earnest desire to win now.

For Los Angeles, Max Stassi may miss the beginning of the season, and neither he nor Anthony Bemboom are established regulars. They made a run at James McCann earlier this offseason before he signed with the Mets. Contreras would be a huge upgrade as an elite offensive catcher who has continued to find his way defensively. He earned 2 runs from extra strikes in 2020 while averaging the second fastest poptime among all catchers. His arm also profiles as above-average, if a tad error-prone in the past. Contreras caught 35% of would-be base-stealers in 2020, well above the league average of 25%.

With two years of team control remaining, the two-time All-Star catcher may be the Cubs’ best available trade chip, however, which could slow any trade talks as they look to milk the most out of any return. He’s a firestarter, fan favorite, and a leader of the team. Besides, having sent Victor Caratini to San Diego as part of the Darvish deal, moving Contreras would also leave them imperiled at the catching spot. The organization likely views Miguel Amaya as a future starting catcher, but he’s not likely to open 2021 with the Major League team. Likewise, Ethan Hearn and Ronnier Quintero are interesting prospects, but neither has played about Rookie Ball. Contreras and the 21-year-old Amaya are the only catchers currently on the Cubs 40-man roster.

Cubs Release Colin Rea

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The Cubs have released right-hander Colin Rea, according to the MLB.com transactions page.  Rea avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $702.5K deal with Chicago on December 2 (the day of the non-tender deadline), but he will now look to sign a new contract with a Japanese team, MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian tweets.

The 30-year-old Rea tossed 14 innings for the Cubs last season, posting a 5.79 ERA, 16.1% strikeout rate and a very solid 3.2% walk rate.  Rea started two of his nine outings but was much more effective as a reliever, as seven of Rea’s nine earned runs allowed in 2020 came during his 5 1/3 innings as a starter.  It’s probably safe to assume he’ll look to rebuild his stock as a starting pitcher in Japan, as the bulk of Rea’s pro experience (161 of 203 games) in the majors and minors as come as a starter.

Those 14 innings for Chicago represented Rea’s first MLB action since 2016, as he spent the previous two seasons in the minors with the Cubs and Padres and missed all of 2017 recovering from Tommy John surgery.  Rea’s arm problems stand out as a major what-if for Padres fans, as a seven-player trade in July 2016 that originally sent Rea to the Marlins was partially reversed since Miami felt Rea was already injured at the time of the swap, so Rea was returned to San Diego and the Padres sent another pitcher involved in the deal back to the Marlins — that pitcher was future Reds ace Luis Castillo.

With Rea gone, the Cubs are short another starting candidate as they prepare to roll out an overhauled rotation in 2021.  Free agent departures and the trade of Yu Darvish to the Padres will set Chicago up with a projected rotation of Kyle Hendricks, Zach Davies, Adbert Alzolay, Alec Mills, and a host of young candidates vying for the fifth spot.  It seems likely that the team will add another veteran to the mix, though probably someone on a minor league deal or on a low-cost MLB contract.

Cubs Sign Adam Morgan To Minor League Contract

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JANUARY 4: Morgan’s deal comes with a $900K base salary if he makes the majors, with additional incentives available, reports Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter link).

JANUARY 3: The Cubs have signed left-hander Adam Morgan to a minor league deal with an invitation to Chicago’s big league spring camp, according to NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Jim Salisbury (Twitter link).

Morgan chose to become a free agent after the Phillies outrighted him off their 40-man roster at the end of the season.  It was effectively an early non-tender, as Morgan was arbitration-eligible for the third time this winter and wasn’t likely to be retained.  After posting a 5.54 ERA over 13 relief innings for Philadelphia in 2020, Morgan underwent flexor tendon repair surgery in October. Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune has good news on Morgan’s recovery timeline, tweeting that Morgan is “expected to be game ready sometime in March.”

On a minor league deal, there isn’t much risk for the Cubs in monitoring Morgan’s health and seeing if he can contribute to their bullpen at some point next year.  A familiar face will be waiting for Morgan in the pen, as former Phillies pitching coach Chris Young is entering his second year as Chicago’s bullpen coach.

Morgan has posted some decent numbers since becoming a full-time relief pitcher, delivering a 3.97 ERA, 2.84 K/BB rate, and 9.6 K/9 over 133 2/3 innings from 2017-19.  Homers have been a consistent issue, as Morgan has a 1.5 HR/9 over his career and allowed three home runs during the smaller sample size of his 2020 workload.  Morgan has some pretty significant career splits (left-handed batters have a .640 OPS against him, but righty swingers have an .859 OPS) but he could provide some help to a Cubs relief corps that is thin on reliable southpaw options.

MLBTR Poll: Grading The Yu Darvish Trade

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Right-hander Yu Darvish came close to winning his first Cy Young award last season, finishing second in the voting to Trevor Bauer, but that wasn’t enough to keep him in a Cubs uniform. The Cubs decided last Sunday to trade Darvish to the Padres in a deal that was officially completed earlier this week. Chicago received five players in return for Darvish and catcher Victor Caratini, though whether the team made the right call is certainly up for debate.

In moving Darvish, the cost-cutting Cubs saved almost all of the $62MM remaining ($59MM, to be exact) on the six-year, $126MM contract they gave the former Ranger and Dodger before 2018. Caratini, meanwhile, is only due a little over $1MM next season via arbitration, and he won’t be eligible for free agency until after 2023. So, in the end, the Cubs let go of a front-line starter and a solid, inexpensive catcher in this deal. The Padres, who are clearly pushing for a World Series, should benefit in at least the near term. After all, they upgraded their roster – one that went 37-23 in 2020 – without surrendering any of their absolute best prospects.

For parting with Darvish and Caratini, the Cubs received a bit of immediate help in righty Zach Davies, who was outstanding in his lone season with the Padres last year. But the 27-year-old Davies is only controllable through next season, meaning he may not be a long-term piece for the Cubs, and the ex-Brewer has been more of a solid starter than a top-of-the-line hurler for most of his career. In other words, the Cubs can’t realistically expect the 2021 version of Davies to turn in production similar to the output Darvish gave them last season.

Along with Davies, the Cubs secured some good prospects in a pair of shortstops – Reginald Preciado and Yeison Santana – as well as two outfielders in Owen Caissie and Ismael Mena. All four ranked among the top 20 farmhands in a very good Padres system at the time of the trade. MLB.com now places Preciado 10th, Caissie 11th, Santana 17th and Mena 18th among Cubs prospects. The Cubs are dreaming on those four eventually turning into legitimate major leaguers, but even if that does happen, it’s going to take some time. Aside from Santana, who turned 20 last month, every member of the group is a teenager.

(Poll links for app users: Padres, Cubs)

Grade the Darvish trade for the Cubs
C 33.65% (8,506 votes)
D 25.49% (6,444 votes)
B 18.70% (4,728 votes)
F 15.69% (3,967 votes)
A 6.46% (1,634 votes)
Total Votes: 25,279
Grade the Darvish trade for the Padres
A 64.62% (15,251 votes)
B 27.79% (6,560 votes)
C 4.65% (1,098 votes)
F 1.49% (351 votes)
D 1.45% (342 votes)
Total Votes: 23,602

Latest On Jason Castro

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Free agent Jason Castro was recently rumored to be holding serious talks with the Astros, but a week has passed without a reported deal. It now seems that a Houston reunion is just one of several possibilities for the veteran backstop.

It remains possible that Castro will sign on for a seventh season with the ’Stros, Robert Murray of Fansided reports on Twitter. But the re-connection “isn’t as certain as once thought,” per the tweet, with other suitors evidently circling.

Even in a slow-moving marketplace, situations can change quickly. The Cubs now have use for a part-time, left-handed-hitting receiver after dealing away Victor Caratini (with more turnover behind the dish still quite possible). And indeed the Chicago organization has “shown interest” in Castro, according to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic.

It isn’t known whether any other clubs are targeting Castro at the moment, though it’s not hard to imagine wider interest. He’s obviously not the top target on the catching market, but is a solid defensive performer who’d theoretically fit in a lot of places as a platoon piece.

While Castro has turned in middling hitting performances in two of the past three seasons, he was limited in both cases to less than a hundred plate appearances (due to injury in 2018 and pandemic in 2020). In his last full campaign, in 2019, Castro turned in a sturdy .232/.332/.435 batting output in 275 plate appearances. He’s a lifetime .242/.328/.421 producer against right-handed pitching.

Latest On Cubs, Jon Lester

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This offseason has brought major changes to the Cubs, who have lost president of baseball operations Theo Epstein and key on-field contributors in Yu Darvish, Kyle Schwarber and Victor Caratini since the winter began. Free-agent left-hander Jon Lester may be one of the next to officially go, as Robert Murray of FanSided reports “there has been little indication of progress toward a reunion” between the two sides.

Soon to turn 37 years old, Lester reached free agency when the Cubs declined his $25MM option for 2021 in favor of a $10MM buyout. That was a straightforward decision for the Cubs, though Lester didn’t harbor any ill will toward the club in its aftermath. He even said there was “mutual” interest in a new deal once Chicago terminated his previous pact. Since then, however, there hasn’t been much news on Lester. San Francisco is the only reported team that has shown interest in him in the past several weeks.

On paper, losing Lester probably won’t be a big blow to the Cubs. After all, the former star struggled to a 5.16 ERA/5.14 FIP in 61 innings last season, and also wasn’t a world-beater in 2019. However, having made enormous contributions to the franchise since joining it in 2015, Lester is a Cubs great and well-respected veteran who, even in this late stage of his career, has shown he’s capable of eating innings on a regular basis. In fact, he amassed at least 171 2/3 frames in each of his first five seasons as a Cub before last year’s pandemic-shortened campaign.

Lester shouldn’t be expensive for the Cubs to re-sign, but if they don’t bring him back, they may need to find another source(s) of innings from outside the organization. Kyle Hendricks and Zach Davies (whom they acquired in the Darvish trade) are the only truly proven starters on the roster. While Alec Mills did pile up 62 1/3 innings in 2020, he didn’t prevent runs at a strong clip. There’s little experience to speak of otherwise among starting possibilities on the Cubs’ 40-man roster. Colin Rea and Adbert Alzolay could vie for spots, and their No. 1-ranked prospect, Brailyn Marquez, might be in for a larger major league role next season after throwing just two-thirds of an inning in 2020.

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