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Cubs Rumors

KBO Notes: Kelly, Wilson, Raley

By TC Zencka | December 11, 2019 at 2:27am CDT

Though it seemed for awhile like Casey Kelly was drawing enough interest to warrant a return to the states, the right-hander has instead re-upped for another season in the KBO. Kelly signed back with the LG Twins for $1.5MM, which includes $300K in incentives, per Dan Kurtz of MyKBO.net. Kelly is most famous for his time as a prospect in the Red Sox system. He was eventually dealt to San Diego in a 2011 blockbuster which also featured Adrian Gonzalez and Anthony Rizzo. Kelly never broke out with the Padres, thanks in part to 2013 Tommy John surgery, which kept him off the hill for the entire season. Kelly ended up accruing a mere 40 1/3 innings with the Padres in parts of two seasons (2012 and ’15), and later combined for another 45 1/3 between the Braves (2016) and Giants (2018). The 30-year-old Kelly has done rather well for himself overseas, going 14-12 last season with a 2.55 ERA across 180 1/3 innings as a starter for the LG Twins.

  • Tyler Wilson will also return to the KBO’s Twins for another season, per Kurtz. 2020 will mark Wilson’s third season with the Twins, for whom he put together solid back-to-back seasons. Coming off a 14-7 year with a 2.92 ERA in 185 innings, Wilson has signed for $1.6MM, including $200K in incentives. The 30-year-old Virginian appeared with the Orioles for parts of three seasons from 2015 to 2017.
  • Coming the other way, southpaw Brooks Raley could be on his way back after five seasons with the Lotte Giants in Korea, tweets Jon Morosi of Fox Sports. Raley was once a Cubs farmhand who broke into the majors for five starts in 2012. He also saw limited action for Chicago the following season, though totaling just 38 1/3 innings and a 7.04 ERA across those two seasons. The Cubs made Raley a 6th round draft choice in 2009 out of Texas A&M. The Minnesota Twins claimed him off waivers, but the Angels claimed him not long after. Raley never appeared at the big league level for either squad. Morosi notes that the 31-year-old Texan is drawing interest from big league clubs now, though which teams were not specified.
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Boston Red Sox Chicago Cubs Notes San Diego Padres Brooks Raley Casey Kelly Tyler Wilson

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Latest On Kris Bryant

By Jeff Todd and Mark Polishuk | December 10, 2019 at 8:24am CDT

The Cubs have reportedly been in fervent pursuit of trade possibilities, exploring deals involving much of their roster — including Kris Bryant. There are some wrinkles to structuring a deal for the superstar third baseman, as well as some new market developments of note. In particular, the Nationals have approached the Cubs to discuss Bryant, according to Jon Morosi of MLB.com.

The Cubs are still awaiting resolution on a service-time grievance filed by Bryant and his representatives, despite the fact that a hearing was held in late October.  Speaking to The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma and other reporters at the Winter Meetings, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein said he felt the ruling is “not going to be more than a couple weeks away,” though he admitted some frustration that the matter has yet to be decided.

That said, Epstein stated the team is “operating with what our understanding of what the likely outcome will be and moving forward that way,” which would hint that the Cubs are confident that Bryant will remain under team control through the 2021 season.  A ruling in the other direction, which would grant Bryant free agency after the 2020 season, would certainly count as a surprise, and one with a major impact on Chicago’s future roster maneuverings.

Needless to say, the length of Bryant’s remaining service time would have a giant impact on what the Wrigleyville side would receive back in a trade, though the third base market joins the delayed grievance ruling as the biggest factors in any trade plans the Cubs might have for Bryant.  Sharma notes that the Cubs are figuring that teams who miss out on Anthony Rendon or Josh Donaldson could come calling about Bryant, which would leave Chicago discussing Bryant with at least three of such teams as the Dodgers, Braves, Rangers, Phillies, and Nationals.  Of that group, the Cubs would most likely be interested in the prospect-deep Atlanta or Los Angeles farm systems. Sharma also wonders if Chicago could also shop Bryant to the Padres (another club with a stacked farm system) as an outfielder, since San Diego is set at the corner infield spots with Manny Machado and Eric Hosmer.

In terms of specific potential landing spots, it seems we’re mostly dealing with informed speculation and hypotheticals. But we’re also beginning to see indications of actual trade talks.  The Nationals’ reported expression of interest is certainly intriguing, though it may be difficult for the D.C. organization to structure a deal. The club is not ruling out a return from Rendon and has also shown interest in Donaldson. But adding another monster deal to bring back Rendon would be tough to do. And Donaldson is said to be heading for a fourth guaranteed year with widespread interest. Under the circumstances, the Nats are surely not the only team to have made contact regarding Bryant. Jon Heyman of MLB Network noted yesterday on Twitter that the Braves and Phillies “could be a fit,” though it’s not clear whether that suggestive phrasing was indicative of dialogue between the organizations.

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Atlanta Braves Chicago Cubs Philadelphia Phillies Washington Nationals Kris Bryant

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Cubs Have Had Discussions With Josh Lindblom

By TC Zencka | December 9, 2019 at 12:43am CDT

The Chicago Cubs have been in contact with free agent right-hander Josh Lindblom, per MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (via twitter).

The possibility of a signing seems far fetched, however, as Morosi notes that other teams are further along in their discussions with Lindblom at this point. Not to mention, of course, the Cubs are notably frugal these days, making a quick strike signing for Lindblom unlikely. There is some interest on the Cubs’ part, however, and one would think Lindblom – an Indiana native – would be intrigued by the possibility of calling Wrigley Field home.

Though he’s not exactly among the most sought after nor bankable free agent arms on the market, Lindblom does come with an intriguing amount of upside after an MVP season in the Korean Baseball Organization. He was a 20-game winner in the KBO with a 2.50 ERA in 194 2/3 innings, this on the heels of a 15-4 season that carried a 2.88 ERA in 168 2/3 innings. That said, Lindblom is set to turn 33 in June, and his major league career prior to his success in the KBO consisted of a series of fly-by-night affairs. From 2011 until 2017, Lindblom suited up for the Dodgers, Phillies, Rangers, A’s, and Pirates. He did manage a palatable 4.10 ERA/4.27 FIP in 147 innings spread across five seasons.

There are a number of pitchers ahead of Lindblom in the free agent pecking order, but there’s enough need league-wide that he should have no trouble finding a home. MLBTR predicted he would secure a two-year, $8MM contract with the Astros, Brewers, Dodgers, Twins, Cubs and Angels all seeming like viable fits. Considering the scuttlebutt coming out of Chicago, however, even that modest commitment might be too rich for the Cubs until they shed some payroll.

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Chicago Cubs Discussion Josh Lindblom

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Cubs Reportedly Signaling Need To Clear Payroll

By Dylan A. Chase | December 8, 2019 at 11:50am CDT

President Theo Epstein and his cohort have been decidedly mum on the Cubs’ payroll outlook this offseason, with the trade market looking like the club’s likeliest route toward improving a roster that went 84-78 last season. Now, a report is indicating the Cubs are rebuking even “low-budget” free agents due to payroll concerns, with Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic pouring cold water on the free agency hopes of north side fans.

On the subject of a potential reunion with 2019 standout Nicholas Castellanos, Rosenthal had this to say: “Not a chance, at least for the moment. Club officials are telling representatives of even low-budget free agents that they need to clear money before engaging in serious negotiations.”

While that likely feels like a bit of a gut punch for Chicago fans, it makes some sense that Epstein and Co. would make a reduction on their estimated $210MM luxury tax payroll a priority. The Cubs were one of three teams to exceed the tax in 2019, and, while our Offseason Outlook noted that the team only stood to pay a $6.34MM penalty for that infraction, a club can’t be blamed for trying to exercise some fiduciary responsibility.

Still, the idea that even “low-budget” signings would be out of their range likely registers as a disappointment, for the moment. As currently constructed, the Cubs project to enter 2019 with Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and Jon Lester in the rotation, which, at first glance, doesn’t project as quite a first-division group. Elsewhere, the outfield figures to need some remodeling.  Castellanos’ mid-season acquisition helped cover for a circumspect downturn by Albert Almora–allowing Castellanos to walk would seem to again require a full-time split for Almora and Ian Happ, two players who, despite some positive attributes, carry a fair amount of risk. The bullpen, meanwhile, arguably calls for improvement at every level.

Obviously, added support to the notion that the Cubs are space-strapped this winter only makes a trade feel all the more inevitable. Kris Bryant stands out as a ready-made palliative to whichever team is sore from losing out on Anthony Rendon or Josh Donaldson. Willson Contreras would project as easily the most marketable catcher on the trade market. Maybe Happ himself could be seen as a viable target for teams in need of a flex outfielder? After the cutting loose of Addison Russell this winter, any of those moves would further signal that the youth movement the club relied upon in its World Series run has begun to shift into a transitional phase.

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Mets Re-Sign Brad Brach

By Jeff Todd | December 6, 2019 at 2:55pm CDT

2:55pm: Brach’s signing has been announced. The club designated righty Chris Flexen for assignment to create roster space.

1:13pm: The Mets have struck a deal with free agent righty Brad Brach, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). He’s said to be promised a $850K salary for the 2020 season (on top of the $500K he’s already owed by the Cubs). Brach is a client of Big League Management.

While the single-season earnings are relatively modest, the deal does include a $1.25MM player option that provides a backstop for the 33-year-old reliever. The price tag goes up based upon the number of games he appears in. ($125K at 20 games; $350K apiece upon his 30th, 35th, 40th, 50th, 60th, and 65th appearances.) There are incentives in both years of the contract, also tied to appearances (beginning with his 50th).

Brach has deep ties to the area, having grown up and played his college ball in New Jersey. It was seen as something of a homecoming when he landed in Queens in the middle of the 2019 season. As I noted in previewing the Mets’ offseason, it seemed sensible to imagine a reunion.

Both team and player obviously enjoyed the experience. For the second-straight season, Brach turned around suboptimal results after swapping jerseys in the middle of the year. In 39 2/3 innings with the Cubs, Brach limped to a 6.13 ERA with 10.2 K/9 and an alarming 6.4 BB/9. But with the Mets, he allowed six earned runs in 14 2/3 frames while posting a strong 15:3 K/BB ratio.

What changed? Brach was pumping his customary 95 mph for most of his tenure in Chicago and continued upon moving to New York. But there was some chatter that Brach had been tipping his changeup. And pitch-tracking software identified a major shift in usage in favor of a cut fastball. The new approach worked, at least in a short sample.

For the Mets, this move plugs one bullpen opening with a known quantity who has late-inning experience. Brach is now a few years removed from his best years in Baltimore, but this seems like a nice price tag for the veteran. The Mets will still need to look for creative ways of boosting their relief unit.

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Chicago Cubs New York Mets Newsstand Transactions Brad Brach Chris Flexen

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Cubs Sign Dan Winkler

By Steve Adams | December 6, 2019 at 2:42pm CDT

2:42pm: The deal has now been announced.

10:09am: Winkler agreed to a split Major League contract with a $750K salary in the Majors and a $200K salary in the minors, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports (Twitter links). He can earn an additional $750K in the Majors via incentives.

8:20am: The Cubs and free-agent righty Dan Winkler are in agreement on a one-year, Major League contract, Robert Murray reports (via Twitter). The MVP Sports Group client elected free agency at season’s end after being outrighted off the Giants’ 40-man roster.

Dan Winkler | Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Winkler, 30 in February, was one of the players sent from Atlanta to San Francisco in the Mark Melancon salary dump. He lasted only a day on the Giants’ 40-man roster, though, further underscoring that the trade was primarily a financially motivated transaction.

But while Winkler struggled through 21 2/3 innings at the MLB level in 2019 (4.98 ERA, 22-to-11 K/BB ratio), he was a very effective bullpen piece with the Braves just a year prior. In 2018, Winkler returned from a grueling injury absence to post 60 1/3 innings of 3.43 ERA ball with 10.3 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.

Winkler had previously gone down to Tommy John surgery in 2014 and, upon returning to the mound in 2016, sustained another gut-wrenching injury when he (audibly) fractured his elbow while throwing a pitch. From 2015-17, he totaled just 41 1/3 innings between the big leagues and the minors thanks to those injuries, but the right-hander is seemingly healthy now. In addition to his work in the Majors last year, Winkler tossed 30 2/3 innings in Triple-A (with a 2.93 ERA, 29 strikeouts and a troubling 23 walks).

If Winkler is able to return to form with his new team, the Cubs will be able to control him through the 2021 season via arbitration. He also has minor league options remaining, so the Cubs can shuttle him back and forth between Triple-A Iowa and Chicago on an as-needed basis if he doesn’t solidify his spot in the ’pen from the outset.

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Chicago Cubs Transactions Dan Winkler

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Cubs, Brandon Morrow Discussing Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | December 6, 2019 at 10:13am CDT

The Cubs and right-hander Brandon Morrow are discussing a minor league contract that would bring the former closer back for a third season in the Cubs organization, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score/CBS Chicago reports (Twitter link). A deal isn’t close at this point and could still take a bit to be ironed out, per Levine. Mutual interest between the Cubs and Morrow was reported last month.

“The Cubs invested a lot of time into Brandon, and money, of course, and Brandon feels a certain sense of loyalty and obligation back to the Cubs to stay with them if they want him on a minor-league contract or something like that,” agent Joel Wolfe told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times in early November. Today’s report makes it all the more clear that the Cubs do indeed have interest in such a pact.

Some Cubs fans might bristle at the idea of continuing the relationship with Morrow, 35, after injuries limited him to just 30 2/3 innings over the life of his previous two-year, $21MM contract with the team. But Morrow was objectively excellent with the Cubs when healthy in 2018, pitching to a 1.47 ERA (2.96 FIP) with a 31-to-9 K/BB ratio and would’ve been a career-best 51.9 percent ground-ball rate had he sustained it for the remainder of the season.

Morrow was also one of the game’s best relievers with the Dodgers in 2017 when he posted a 2.06 ERA and a 50-to-9 K/BB ratio in 43 2/3 frames, although Los Angeles leaned heavily on the injury-prone righty in the postseason that year, as he appeared in 14 of their 15 games. The extent to which that heavy workload impacted Morrow’s first tenure with the Cubs can’t be known, but a biceps injury cut his 2018 season in half and he’s since undergone a pair of elbow surgeries without setting foot on a big league mound.

Successfully striking gold on Morrow, as the Dodgers did in 2017, would be a boon for what looks like an uncertain Chicago relief corps at the moment. Craig Kimbrel will be back in both 2020 and 2021, and the Cubs will have to hope that a normal offseason and a full Spring Training ramp-up period can help him round back into form after an ugly half-season debut in 2019. Meanwhile, veterans Steve Cishek, Pedro Strop and Brandon Kintzler have all set out into free agency, leaving Kyle Ryan, Rowan Wick and demoted starter Tyler Chatwood among the likeliest names to be included in next year’s bullpen. The Cubs are reportedly taking a low-cost flier on righty Dan Winkler to perhaps join that group, but there’s quite a bit more work to do to turn this into anything resembling a reliable relief unit.

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Chicago Cubs Brandon Morrow

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Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

By Tim Dierkes | December 5, 2019 at 1:08am CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Cubs will consider major trades as they look to improve a team with holes in center field, the rotation, and the bullpen.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Yu Darvish, SP: $81MM through 2023
  • Jason Heyward, RF: $86MM through 2023
  • Jon Lester, SP: $25MM through 2020.  Includes mutual option for 2021.
  • Craig Kimbrel, RP: $33MM through 2021.  Includes club/vesting option for 2022.
  • Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $16.5MM through 2020.  Includes club option for 2021.
  • Tyler Chatwood, P: $13MM through 2020.
  • Kyle Hendricks, SP: $55.5MM through 2023.  Includes club option for 2024.
  • Jose Quintana, SP: $10.5MM through 2020.
  • Daniel Descalso, 2B: $3.5MM through 2020.  Includes club option for 2021.
  • David Bote, 3B/2B: $15MM through 2024.  Includes club options for 2025 and ’26.

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Kris Bryant, 3B/OF – $18.5MM
  • Javier Baez, SS – $9.3MM
  • Kyle Schwarber, LF – $8.0MM
  • Willson Contreras, C – $4.5MM
  • Albert Almora, CF – $1.8MM
  • Kyle Ryan, RP – $1.1MM
  • Jharel Cotton, SP – agreed to $640K salary
  • Non-tendered: Addison Russell, Danny Hultzen

Free Agents

  • Nicholas Castellanos, Cole Hamels, Addison Russell, Ben Zobrist, Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler, Pedro Strop, David Phelps, Derek Holland, Brandon Morrow, Tony Barnette, Kendall Graveman

This year the Cubs failed to reach the playoffs for the first time since their rebuild ended in 2015.  Following a disappointing 84-win season, Joe Maddon’s five-year term as manager came to an end.  Despite Maddon achieving the impossible with the Cubs’ 2016 championship, the club showed little interest in a new deal.  It was a pretty typical progression – the Cubs’ performance had become increasingly disappointing, particularly with 2018’s one-game Wild Card ouster and missing the playoffs entirely in ’19.  That’s not a situation where a manager is typically re-signed, even if most of the blame falls on the players and front office.  Maddon is famously laid-back, so the team brought David Ross in to light a fire under the players as well to restore camaraderie.  Ross seems like he’ll be able to improve those situations, and should be equally adept as Maddon in dealing with the media.  Where Ross’ lineup and in-game tactics rank remains to be seen, as he has no prior managerial experience.  The Cubs protected against that concern by hiring former Padres manager Andy Green to serve as Ross’ bench coach.

After hiring Ross, Cubs president Theo Epstein kicked off his offseason by making easy calls on club options, retaining Anthony Rizzo and Jose Quintana and moving on from pitchers David Phelps, Brandon Morrow, Kendall Graveman, and Tony Barnette.  The team also picked up Jharel Cotton, an affordable righty who can compete for a fifth starter or long relief role.  Cotton, 28 in January, looked promising back in 2016 before injuries set in.  The Cubs also made the overdue decision to part ways with infielder Addison Russell, oddly accentuating that they did so because his salary was getting too high.  That the Epstein regime did not cut ties with Russell due to the domestic violence allegations against him more than two years ago is something that many of the team’s fans will continue to find disturbing.

Looking forward, let’s start with the matter of the Cubs’ payroll.  Epstein’s not talking about it, but the Cubs were one of only three teams to exceed the $206MM luxury tax line in 2019.  Back in September, the Associated Press projected the Cubs’ penalty for this infraction to be $6.34MM.  On the surface, it’s difficult to call the team cheap when they’re running a top-three payroll in baseball.  On the other hand, it’s hard to see why a 20% tax on the overage would serve as a real impediment to any major market team.  It’s worth questioning what would constitute a reasonable player payroll for these corporations, rather than taking their word for it or accepting the luxury tax threshold as a salary cap.

Back of the napkin, the Cubs have contract commitments of about $135MM for 2020, plus an arbitration class that should run around $44MM.  There seems to be enough wiggle room for one premium player or at least several decent ones, right?  But the reality is that the team’s competitive balance tax payroll is higher, estimated around $210MM for 2020 already.  As the AP explains, “Luxury tax payrolls are based on the average annual values of contracts for players on 40-man rosters and include $14.5 million per team in benefits.”  Every dollar the Cubs spend between $208MM-228MM comes with a 30% tax, and every dollar they spend between $228MM-248MM comes with a 42% tax.  If the Cubs were to sign Gerrit Cole at a $35MM AAV, it would be more like paying him $48MM in 2020 due to the taxes they’d incur, and it would leave little room for other notable additions without accompanying subtractions.

On the other hand, with Lester, Quintana, and Chatwood off the books in ’21, the Cubs could get under the $210MM base tax threshold in that season, at which point all the taxes would go away.  Would it be crazy to go to $247MM in 2020, pay a $14MM tax once, and then reset?  I don’t think so, but $248MM represents a harder line in the sand since spending beyond that point would be taxed at 75%, and the Cubs’ top draft pick would move down ten spots.  After going down the rabbit hole here, you start to see that there’s almost no chance the Cubs will add more than $38MM in CBT payroll this winter, and they could easily choose to draw the line at $18MM added.

It certainly seems like the Cubs will be sitting out on the major free agents for the second consecutive winter.  Obviously, any of the big dogs would greatly increase the team’s chances of returning to the playoffs in 2020.  With Cole Hamels having signed with the Braves, the Cubs’ rotation sets up as Yu Darvish, Kyle Hendricks, Jose Quintana, and Jon Lester.  With Quintana, Lester, and Chatwood due for free agency after the season, another long-term investment in the rotation in the form of Cole or Stephen Strasburg would be worth considering.  Third baseman Anthony Rendon is a tougher fit, as signing the game-changing star would necessitate playing Kris Bryant full-time at an outfield corner, and Bryant has never spent even 500 innings in the outfield in an MLB season.  Or, Bryant could be traded this winter.

Bryant is only under team control for two more seasons, with a slight chance of 2020 becoming his walk year if he wins his service time grievance.  Though Bryant winning the grievance is considered unlikely, I don’t see why, since the Cubs’ manipulation of his service time to gain a seventh year of control was the most blatant case in recent history.  It doesn’t seem crazy to think that an independent arbitrator could rule in his favor.  Regardless, if the Cubs are to seriously entertain trading Bryant this winter, it would have to be after the decision is revealed.  Moving Bryant generally seems like robbing Peter to pay Paul, as Bryant is a five-win player who should earn around $20MM this winter, and that’s a great deal for the Cubs.  Still, it’s possible to trade a five-win player and emerge better for it.

Who might pursue Bryant this winter?  We could start with Rendon’s suitors.  Bryant is about 19 months younger than Rendon, but Rendon has become better on both sides of the ball and projects to remain a little better in the short-term.  The Dodgers, Rangers, and Nationals, as Rendon suitors, could view Bryant as an interesting Plan B, but those same clubs could also look at Josh Donaldson.  If we’re assuming Bryant will mostly be deployed at the hot corner, the Angels, Braves, Phillies, Indians, Marlins, Mets, Rays, or Twins could be options.  Bryant could be especially interesting for teams that would never be able to sign a player of his caliber in free agency.  I can only speculate so much, but I imagine young, controllable starting pitching would be a key part of a Bryant deal for the Cubs.  If the Cubs actually do move Bryant and don’t want to replace him with the large salary of Rendon or Donaldson, they could plug in David Bote as his replacement at third base.

Similarly, we’ve seen the suggestion the Cubs could trade catcher Willson Contreras this winter.  Contreras, 27, is one of the best-hitting catchers in the game, and he has three years of remaining control.  He’s poorly regarded as a pitch framer, so the teams that lost out on Yasmani Grandal won’t necessarily be all over Contreras.  The Angels, Astros, Blue Jays, Mets, and Rangers could potentially seek a boost behind the plate and consider Contreras.  But the Cubs, much like with any potential Bryant trade, would increase their own exposure by elevating Victor Caratini to regular status, especially with Grandal off the board.  “The Cubs are going to make a move,” wrote ESPN’s Jeff Passan, so it seems that after years of threatening a possible position player shakeup, the club will actually do so to some degree this winter.

While the Cubs’ infield could easily be left alone, with Nico Hoerner stepping in as the regular second baseman, the team’s outfield situation seems more unsettled.  Heyward has a spot locked down, and has at least settled in as a two-win player who could be used in center field in the short-term.  I don’t think the Cubs want to commit to keeping Heyward out of his natural right field position, however, which is one reason a reunion with Nicholas Castellanos seems unlikely.  Mike Moustakas, a pretty good but flawed position player without a qualifying offer attached, snagged a four-year, $64MM deal from the Reds.  Castellanos, almost three and a half years younger than Moose, seems to have a chance at topping that contract.  Given Castellanos’ defensive limitations and their current payroll crunch, that doesn’t seem like a contract the Cubs will find palatable.

Plus, Kyle Schwarber already serves the role as a solid bat-first corner outfielder for the Cubs, and he should clock in at half Castellanos’ salary without a long-term commitment.  While Schwarber is certainly a trade candidate, the simplest scenario for the Cubs may be to leave him in left and Heyward in right, importing a quality starting center fielder.  That would bump Albert Almora to a fourth outfielder role or trade bait, not that much return would be expected.  The Cubs have Shogo Akiyama on their radar as a possible center field solution, according to Patrick Mooney of The Athletic.  Jackie Bradley Jr. could be a trade option, though not a game-changer, and his $11MM salary projection is problematic.  Starling Marte would be an excellent target if the Pirates are willing to move him in the division, and his $11.5MM CBT hit would be worth it.  Aside from Akiyama, the free agent market is sparse at center field, with only Kevin Pillar and Brett Gardner qualifying as potential regulars.  Though the Cubs’ center fielder doesn’t necessarily have to be their leadoff hitter, it would be nice to kill two birds with one stone.  Akiyama has run an OBP of .385 or better for the Seibu Lions in each of the last five seasons, so the Cubs’ interest makes sense.

We haven’t talked yet about Ian Happ, the Cubs’ first-round pick from 2015.  The 25-year-old has a career 112 wRC+ in 1,031 plate appearances, though the switch-hitter’s success has been largely against right-handed pitching.  He’s been a man without a position in his big league career, though perhaps 2020 could represent a chance to earn semi-regular playing time in center field if the Cubs don’t make a significant pickup.  Happ is also a trade option, though the Cubs could be selling low.

Moving Heyward to center field in the short-term is also palatable.  That could allow the Cubs to consider free agents like Avisail Garcia, Yasiel Puig, Kole Calhoun, and Steven Souza.  None represent a clear upgrade for the Cubs, however.  Mookie Betts remains the crown jewel of the trade market, and of course would be a huge one-year addition for the Cubs.  As the GM who drafted Betts, you’d have to think Epstein will at least inquire, but a salary projection near $30MM could be an issue for the Cubs the same way it is for the Red Sox.  More down-to-earth trade options could include Trey Mancini or Whit Merrifield (who could also help at second base).

The Cubs would be well-served to think bigger with their open rotation spot than Jharel Cotton, Adbert Alzolay, and Chatwood, but it’s unclear how big they’ll go.  I think they’d top out at a $10MM a year type of free agent, and possibly wouldn’t go that far.  The decision not to issue a qualifying offer to Hamels showed, if nothing else, they weren’t comfortable risking him accepting a one-year, $17.8MM deal, even though that’s the contract he ended up getting from the Braves.  It’s also quite possible the Cubs’ rotation will be addressed with an affordable young arm if they wind up trading a position player.

The Cubs’ bullpen is of greater urgency.  Given their commitment to Kimbrel, they’ve got to try to fix him after a disastrous stint in which he posted a 6.53 ERA with nine home runs allowed in 20 2/3 innings.  After Kimbrel, Rowan Wick and Kyle Ryan probably have spots locked down.  Veterans Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, and Brandon Kintzler are all free agents, though Strop has expressed a desire to return.  Ideally, the Cubs would add a stable veteran who could step into the ninth inning if Kimbrel falters.  Reliability is not easily found among free agent relievers, though Will Harris might fit the bill.

Assuming Bryant’s grievance goes the Cubs’ way, their core position player trio of Bryant, Javier Baez, and Anthony Rizzo remains under control through 2021.  The three players should be good for 12 WAR at a cost of about $44MM in total in 2020.  While that’s obviously not the strong competitive advantage of paying all three players less than $9MM total for 13+ WAR, as they did in each of the 2016 and ’17 seasons, it’s still a great price for the talent and not something to be squandered.  Logically, if there’s a time for the franchise to take a step back and reset, it’s after the 2021 season.  With the team’s payroll issues still in full force, creativity will be required by Epstein and company this winter.

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2019-20 Offseason Outlook Chicago Cubs MLBTR Originals

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D-backs, Giants Join Cubs With Interest In Nicholas Castellanos

By Jeff Todd | December 4, 2019 at 12:30pm CDT

12:30pm: The Diamondbacks are also showing some interest, Morosi tweets. It’s good news for Castellanos to have National League teams involved, though it’s still not clear which if any would be interested in a lengthy commitment.

10:42am: The Giants have joined the Cubs in showing interest in free agent outfielder Nicholas Castellanos, according to a report from Jon Morosi of MLB.com. Other pursuers remain unknown.

Castellanos is one of the many Scott Boras-repped players populating the upper reaches of the open market. He joins Marcell Ozuna among the top-available outfield options.

While it’s a bit worrisome to imagine Castellanos patrolling the spacious Oracle Park outfield, the club is pulling in the fences this winter. And as Morosi notes, it’s also possible that the youthful slugger could at some point step back into the infield. (He never managed to stick at third base previously but could presumably be expected to play a palatable first base.)

Castellanos is an exceptionally difficult free agent to prognosticate. We ultimately settled on a prediction of four years and $58MM, but batted around quite a few alternative concepts. Castellanos is an accomplished but hardly all-world hitter who has shown some improvements in the field but remains a bat-first player. Involvement of the Giants in his market would assuredly help, as the level of demand has constituted a major element of uncertainty in the earning outlook.

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Latest On Cubs’ Offseason Plans

By Connor Byrne | December 3, 2019 at 8:48pm CDT

The Cubs, just a couple months from the end of a bitterly disappointing campaign, may be on their way to an offseason shakeup. The club has been “aggressive,” “manic,” “motivated” and “obvious” in its effort to trade someone, executives have told Jeff Passan of ESPN.com.

The possibility of a trade involving first baseman Anthony Rizzo has looked out of the question to this point, but even the franchise favorite might not be off-limits, according to Passan, who names third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant and catcher Willson Contreras as other possible chips for Chicago.

Rizzo’s on the heels of yet another excellent offensive season, in which he slashed .293/.405/.520 with 27 home runs in 613 plate appearances. The 30-year-old is controllable for the next two seasons by way of affordable club options, and has already said he hopes to sign a new contract with the Cubs. So far, though, there hasn’t been any scuttlebutt regarding a new deal between the two sides.

Pound for pound, Bryant’s likely the best player of the three, but there’s wariness toward him from other clubs in regards to his team control, per Passan. As of now, Bryant’s still under wraps for two more years via arbitration, but the former NL MVP will become a free agent next winter if he wins a grievance against the Cubs for allegedly manipulating his service time as a rookie in 2015. He’s currently slated to earn a projected $18.5MM via the arb process next season, and that looks like a reasonable price relative to what the soon-to-be 28-year-old Bryant brings to the table. Still, if teams aren’t sure whether they’ll get one or two years of Bryant, it’s understandable that they may not want to make a massive offer for him.

Meantime, there’s no debate as to how much time Contreras has left before free agency. He’s got another three arb-eligible years, including a 2020 season in which he’s slated to earn at a bargain rate of $4.5MM. Between his cost and his years-long track record of terrific production, Contreras is hands down one of the most valuable catchers in baseball. With that in mind, the Cubs aren’t under pressure to trade Contreras for anything less than a sweetheart offer. However, if Chicago does move Contreras, it does seem to have a capable replacement on hand in Victor Caratini.

Whether the Cubs part with Rizzo, Bryant, Contreras or another of their big-time contributors (Javier Baez?), it does look as if this is setting up as an offseason of seismic changes for the club. Epstein was frustrated a year ago after the Cubs failed to advance past the wild-card round, so he’s surely even more upset now following a season in which they didn’t even make the playoffs.

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