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NL Notes: Cubs, Bryant, Heyward, Reds, Mahle, Nationals, Castro

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The Cubs aren’t yet sure how David Ross’ style as a tactician will differ from his predecessor, but Ross’ decisions are starting to trickle in and lend some clarity to the Cubs’ 2020 season. For starters, Kris Bryant as the leadoff man does not feel like an experiment – it’s happening. Ross likes Bryant’s speed and baserunning ability, and to his credit, there’s really nothing to dislike about Bryant in the leadoff spot. It does create questions further down the order, but coming off a season in which their leadoff men were last in the league with a .294 OBP, that’s a tradeoff they’re willing to make, per Mark Gonzalez of the Chicago Tribune. The other major decision passed down today was that Jason Heyward would remain in right field as often as possible. Given Heyward’s tremendous defensive abilities and a wRC+ that’s been at league average over the last two years, and it makes some sense to profile Heyward as a centerfielder. He’s more comfortable in right, however, and his glove does play as a genuine asset there. Let’s check in on a couple other National League clubs…

  • Tyler Mahle will be more than okay coming out of the bullpen for the Reds if that means staying in the big leagues, per MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. In the rotation last year, Mahle went 3-12 with a 5.14 ERA/4.66 FIP across 129 2/3 innings in 25 starts. According to Mahle, his biggest problem was the lack of an effective put away breaking ball, something he’s working on by adding a slider. There might be something to Mahle’s analysis, as his curveball induced a 26.6 whiff%. More to the point might be his 7.11 ERA against left-handed hitters, though it’s part and parcel of the same issue, likely.
  • Starlin Castro is energized by the opportunity to play for a contender again, per Sam Fortier of the Washington Post. Between the changes that Castro made to his approach in the second half of last year, and his excitement over playing in games of consequence again, the Nationals are finding reasons to believe in Castro’s potential to make up for some of the offense lost in the wake of Anthony Rendon’s departure. Castro’s a difficult player to pin down in terms of ability, but he is a four-time All-Star entering his age-30 season, and before the terms of his current two-year deal run out, he may even cross the 2,000 hit threshold.

Mild Calf Tear Sidelines Brandon Morrow For 10-14 Days

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The whack-a-mole game that is Brandon Morrow’s body continues to keep him from his comeback. He threw earlier this week and appeared to be on track, until a twinge of pain in his calf during a run revealed a mild tear, per The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma (via Twitter). The injury is minor, with Morrow projected to be sidelined for a mere 10-14 days.

Still, given the absolute deluge of elbow, bicep, and back injuries Morrow has undergone over the last couple of seasons, it’s fair to sound the alarms here. This latest setback is innocuous enough in a vacuum, and yet it certainly takes on greater significance given Morrow’s recent history. Even a short-term injury such as this one has to put Morrow’s availability for opening day in question.

The Cubs bullpen is primed for a re-characterization after moving on from veterans like Pedro Strop, Steve Cishek, Brandon Kintzler, and Mike Montgomery, who was dealt to Kansas City at last year’s deadline. Morrow, 35, re-joined the Cubs on a minor league deal after being physically unable to contribute for the entire second season of his original two-year deal with Chicago. At this point, he has to be considered a long shot to make the team, fun as his reemergence would be.

Cubs’ Brad Wieck Undergoes Cardiac Ablation Procedure

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Cubs lefty Brad Wieck underwent a cardiac ablation procedure to prevent the recurrence of an intermittent atrial flutter that was discovered during his annual spring physical, the team announced. He’ll rest and rehab from the procedure next week before being reevaluated, at which point a timeline for his return to the mound will become clearer. A return in a few weeks’ time isn’t out of the question though, ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers tweets.

The Cubs acquired Wieck, 28, in the trade that sent righty Carl Edwards Jr. to the Padres prior to last year’s trade deadline. The lefty didn’t make his Cubs debut until being brought to the big leagues as a September call-up, but he gave the team some reason for optimism when he held opponents to four runs on two hits and four walks with 18 strikeouts in 10 innings (3.60 ERA, 2.71 FIP).

Wieck’s previous work with the Padres had been unsightly (18 runs in 24 2/3 innings), but his ability to miss bats was on full display there as well. In total, Wieck has tossed 41 2/3 innings in the big leagues, and while his 4.97 ERA in that time isn’t much to look at, his 59-to-13 K/BB ratio is certainly intriguing. Notably, he’s fared better against righties (.287 wOBA) than lefties (.307) in his young career.

If Wieck isn’t ready to go to begin the season, Kyle Ryan becomes the Cubs’ lone plausible left-handed bullpen option on the 40-man roster. Prospect Justin Steele is on the 40-man but has yet to pitch above the Double-A level (where he struggled in 2019). The only other lefties on the 40-man roster are Jon Lester and Jose Quintana.

That could open the door for a non-roster invitee like Tyler Olson, Rex Brothers, Danny Hultzen or CD Pelham to get a look, although the Cubs could also just roll with a primarily right-handed relief corps early in the season as well. Wieck himself wasn’t a lock for a spot, given that he has a minor league option remaining, though his September showing put him in a good position.

Camp Battles: Cubs’ Second Base Mix

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The Cubs started seven different players at second base in 2019 with generally uninspiring results. Addison Russell, Ben Zobrist and Tony Kemp are now gone. Let’s take a look at the options who remain to fill that spot on the north side in 2020.

  • Jason Kipnis: Chicago signed Kipnis to a minor-league deal after Cleveland cut bait last offseason. The former star has slumped to a .236/.305/.403 (85 wRC+) mark over the past three seasons, especially struggling against left-handed pitching. His defensive metrics are mixed, with UZR more bullish than DRS or Statcast. At 32 (33 in April), the Illinois native probably won’t be returning to his 2015-16 heights, but there’s hope he can offer reasonable production on both sides of the ball. With that in mind, Kipnis looks to be a good bet to make the Opening Day roster, Patrick Mooney of the Athletic reported today.
  • David Bote: Bote got the lion’s share of playing time at second last season, although he’s capable of bouncing around the infield. The 26-year-old has put up league average numbers over his first 566 plate appearances (.257/.362/.422). There’s a lot of swing-and-miss to his game, though, and his career 11.1% walk rate seems a bit inflated by some opportunities hitting in front of the pitcher. The organization clearly believes in him, having extended him through 2024 (with a pair of club options) last spring.
  • Nico Hoerner: The Cubs’ top prospect, Hoerner made it up for a September cameo. A polished hitter coming out of Stanford, he always profiled as a fast riser, but the club may prefer to slow things down a bit. Mediocre results over his first 82 MLB plate appearances certainly won’t sour the organization on him, but Hoerner only logged 294 plate appearances in the high minors, all in Double-A. There’s a case to be made for giving him some seasoning at Triple-A.
  • Daniel Descalso: A late-career swing change seemingly reinvigorated Descalso’s career in Arizona in 2018. The Cubs bought in, signing him to a two-year deal last offseason. Unfortunately, he fell completely flat, hitting just .173/.271/.250 (42 wRC+) in 194 plate appearances. 2018 now looks like an outlier rather than a breakout, as Descalso’s been at least ten percentage points below average at the plate in every other season of his career.
  • Robel García: García, 26, is a phenomenal story, having parlayed a stint in Italy to a return to affiliated ball (and eventually his MLB debut) in 2019. He obliterated the minors to the tune of a .284/.369/.586 line in 388 plate appearances between Double-A and Triple-A. That came with a 30.9% strikeout rate, though, and the whiffs became an even bigger issue in his MLB audition. García struck out in 35 of his 80 MLB plate appearances with an unpalatable 20.9% swinging strike rate. That he’s even in consideration for the job is remarkable considering where he was a year ago; he’ll have to alleviate the swing-and-miss to be a viable everyday option, though.

Also in camp as non-roster invitees are Corban Joseph, Carlos Asuaje and Hernán Pérez. Joseph has intrigued teams recently with quality minor-league numbers, but he’s a 31-year-old with 94 MLB plate appearances to his name. Asuaje, meanwhile, is coming off a disappointing tenure in the KBO, while Pérez has hovered around replacement-level over parts of eight seasons as a utility option. Each would seem to need an eye-opening spring to earn the job. Ditto prospect Trent Giambrone, who is also in camp but was left unprotected for (and went undrafted in) the Rule V draft.

Ian Happ could have added another name to the mix. However, the coaching staff considers Happ more of an option in center field, Mooney reports. Thus, it seems likeliest one of the names above picks up the slack at the keystone in 2020.

Health Notes: Paxton, Rodgers, Morrow, Buttrey

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As spring training games kick off, let’s check in on some injury situations around the game.

  • The early stages of James Paxton’s recovery from February back surgery have been promising, reports Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News. Paxton is “optimistic” he’ll begin a throwing program around ten days from now, relays Ackert. Paxton suggested he could be back in the Yankees’ rotation by May, which would be at the early end of the three to four month estimate for his recovery immediately post-surgery. A prompt return from the southpaw is perhaps even more important with Luis Severino now dealing with uncertainty of his own. The 31-year-old Paxton posted a solid 3.82 ERA with strong strikeout (29.4%) and walk (8.7%) rates over 150.2 innings in his first season in pinstripes in 2019.
  • Rockies’ infielder Brendan Rodgers is ahead of schedule in his own recovery from surgery. The season-ending shoulder procedure he underwent last June was expected to keep him out until sometime in May, reports Thomas Harding of MLB.com, but that timetable could be moving up. Rodgers is hitting without pain, Harding reports, and the infielder estimated he could log reps at DH by March 3. The next step, Harding adds, is for Rodgers to begin a throwing program from shortstop, although he’s already throwing from 160 feet without pain, he says. The former top prospect tells Harding not to rule out a potential Opening Day return.
  • In less promising news, Cubs’ reliever Brandon Morrow has been shut down “for at least a few days” with a “mild right upper chest strain,” reports Jordan Bastian of MLB.com (Twitter link). Morrow’s timetable for return is unclear, Bastian adds. Standing alone, a non-arm problem wouldn’t be all that worrisome at this stage of spring training. With Morrow’s litany of prior injuries, though, it’s certainly concerning to hear he’s again fighting through pain. Morrow re-signed with the Cubs on a minor-league deal this offseason after injuries wrecked his first two years with the organization. When healthy, the 35-year-old has proven a highly-effective option in the late innings.
  • Another high-leverage reliever, Angels’ right-hander Ty Buttrey, expects to throw off a mound by next Thursday, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Buttrey suffered an intercostal strain last week, but it never seemed particularly serious. He should be a full go for Opening Day, Fletcher adds.

Quick Hits: Puig, Arbitration Process, Royals, Montgomery

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The status of top remaining free agent Yasiel Puig remains up in the air as Spring Training baseball kicks off today. The mercurial and ever-entertaining pugilist got everyday at-bats in 2019 after a couple years of more judicious playing time with the Dodgers – but the results don’t have teams lined up with contract offers. Puig hit .267/.327/.458 across 611 plate appearances with the Reds and Indians with 24 home runs and 84 RBIs. Puig’s singular personality makes his on-field contributions just a part of the overall package, but even after a year of modest production (101 wRC+), Puig ought to be able to find a job somewhere. Latest reports have the White Sox and Rockies as potential landing spots for Puig, per Hector Gomez of Deportivo Z 101. The Athletic’s Nick Groke downplays the Rockies interest (via Twitter), however. 

  • CAA agent Jeff Berry lost two arbitration cases this week. Arbitration panels chose the team award amount in cases for J.T. Realmuto and Josh Hader, two transformative performers trying to make their cases to earn beyond the scope of their positional historical comps, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Said Berry of the proceedings, “This was about two guys (Hader and Realmuto) willing to go to the mat to fight for what’s right, and hopefully other players take notice.”  It’s possible to look at the results and presume that Berry overestimated his cases for both superstars (within the confines of the current system). It’s surely a fine line between fighting for the best result in an uneven system and politicking for change. Either way, the arbitration panel could use some work. Rosenthal brought a particularly interesting point to the foreground, noting that either the players’ union or MLB “can unilaterally fire any arbitrator at any time.” That’s certainly an inflection point for turning a supposedly unbiased system into one rife for manipulation.
  • After trading for Cubs’ swingman Mike Montgomery in July, the Royals believe he can reach another gear when settled into a starting role, per Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star. The Cubs thought the same thing when they acquired Montgomery in the middle of 2016. Though the Cubs never found consistent work for Montgomery in the rotation, he played an important role as a swingman for Chicago. And of course, never forget, he earned the save in game seven of the 2016 World Series. Not for nothing, but Montgomery has desired a rotation slot for some time now, and it could be that the consistency and trust the Royals plan on giving him in his role will have the desired effect – but only time will tell. In 13 starts after the trade last season, Montgomery went 2-7 with a 4.64 ERA/5.23 FIP while striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings.

NL Notes: Dodgers, Cubs, Bryant, Rockies, Arenado

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Right-hander Brusdar Graterol was part of the first version of a three-team trade sending Mookie Betts from the Red Sox to the Dodgers. But the Red Sox backed out of acquiring Graterol, then with the Twins, in favor of a different package. The Red Sox were concerned that the flamethrowing 21-year-old wouldn’t project as a starter, and they had worries about his health, thereby causing them to back out of landing him. The Dodgers “didn’t disregard” the Red Sox’s reservations about Graterol, according to Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, but they’re happy to have the 21-year-old after acquiring him from the Twins and Betts from the Red Sox in separate trades. “A guy with his stuff, it’s just a different look for our bullpen,” Dodgers pitching coach Mark Prior told Castillo. “The ability to bring that kind of raw power, impact into the game is only a good thing for us.” After a period of uncertainty, Graterol is relieved to know where he’ll be playing going forward. “I really felt like I had a weight on top of me,” Graterol said, “not knowing what to do with the situation.”

Here’s more from the National League…

  • Cubs third baseman/outfielder Kris Bryant is two seasons away from possibly reaching free agent, but famed agent Scott Boras is already touting his client’s value when asked. Boras told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times: “How valuable is Kris Bryant?” He is truly glue. He’s the glue of the team, where if there is a gap offensively or defensively he’s there to fill it. Now he just needs an appropriate nickname, and that is ‘Elmer.’ Because he’s Elmer’s Glue for the Cubs.” And considering Bryant has shown an ability to line up at more than one position and hit in multiple spots in the Cubs’ lineup, Boras said he and others in his office have taken to calling him ”Island Boy.” Whatever nickname you want to give Bryant, it appears he’ll remain a Cub despite an offseason rife with trade rumors. The 28-year-old and the Cubs indicated earlier this week they expect to stay together this season.
  • There have been rumblings regarding a trade that would sent Bryant to the Rockies and fellow superstar third baseman Nolan Arenado to the Cubs. Those discussions became serious enough during the winter that both teams’ owners were on the phone with one another, but the talks didn’t get “that close,” Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com writes. Bryant and Arenado now seem as if they’ll stay where they are, at least to begin the season. Arenado addressed the Cubs rumors, though, per Rogers, saying: “That would have been interesting. That would have been crazy.”
  • As with Graterol, Bryant and Arenado, Dodgers shortstop Corey Seager was a prominent part of trade rumors over the winter. But like Bryant and Arenado, he hasn’t gone anywhere. The former Rookie of the Year didn’t pay much attention to that speculation, however, as Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register relays. Seager said he was “not bothered, maybe surprised is a better word” by the fact that his name came up in trade talks. Now, barring a blockbuster shortstop acquisition for the Dodgers (Francisco Lindor, for example), they’ll go into the upcoming season with Seager as their starter at the spot. They’re still in better position than most teams there, as the 25-year-old Seager has been one of the game’s finest shortstops since he debuted in 2015.

Kris Bryant Expects To Remain With Cubs After Epstein Sit-Down

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Kris Bryant recently reiterated his affection for the Cubs organization. He also noted it’d be nice “to be in the loop a little bit” if indeed the team is holding trade talks that involve him.

That seems to have taken place in a recent chat with president of baseball operations Theo Epstein, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times reports. Bryant says he was left with the impression he’ll be in a Cubs uniform for the entirety of the coming season.

Unsurprisingly, Bryant wasn’t given an unqualified assurance that he wouldn’t be traded. But GM Jed Hoyer acknowledged that Bryant had left with the right takeaway, saying it’s “certainly the expectation” that the star will remain in Chicago for the coming season.

While there has been an awful lot of chatter surrounding Bryant’s potential availability in trade, we never saw an indication over the offseason that a deal was particularly close. Whatever the explanation given by Epstein, Bryant came away feeling satisfied. The 28-year-old says it was a “great” meeting, indicated that he received “insight as to what kind of happened in the offseason,” and expressed excitement for the coming season.

All things considered, it would rate as quite the surprise at this point to see Bryant swapped before Opening Day. Epstein joined Hoyer in giving public indication that the front office doesn’t expect to pull off a swap. And that’s obviously the impression that was given to Bryant himself.

MLBTR Poll: Who’s The NL Central Favorite?

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With the exception of the Reds, who have made several notable moves, this hasn’t been an action-packed offseason in the National League Central. Cincinnati was a fourth-place team a season ago and is currently mired in a six-year playoff drought, but the club has made an earnest attempt to transform itself into a playoff contender since the 2019 campaign concluded. Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama have all come aboard in free agency to bolster the Reds’ position player group. Meanwhile, a rotation that was already strong in 2019 has tacked on Wade Miley to complement Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Trevor Bauer and Anthony DeSclafani, and the bullpen has pulled in Pedro Strop.

The Reds only won 75 games last year, but at last check, the majority of MLBTR voters expect them to amass 80-some victories this season. In the NL Central, where there doesn’t appear to be a dominant team, it may only take 80-plus wins to claim the division. The Cardinals’ 91 led the way last year, but they’ve made no truly headline-grabbing acquisitions in recent months, they’ve lost outfielder Marcell Ozuna to the Braves and now one of their most reliable starters, Miles Mikolas, is dealing with arm troubles early in the spring.

Along with the Cards, the 2019 Central boasted two other plus-.500 teams – the Brewers (89 wins) and the Cubs (84). It wouldn’t be a surprise to see either team contend for the playoffs again this year, but it’s difficult to argue that they’ve gotten better since last season. The Brewers have made quite a few changes, especially in the infield (Brock Holt’s their latest pickup), but they also lost two of their best position players in Moustakas and catcher Yasmani Grandal earlier in free agency.

The Cubs, meantime, have been stunningly quiet for a deep-pocketed team that collapsed down the stretch in 2019. Seismic changes were expected after they laid an egg last year, and maybe they’ll still come (a Kris Bryant trade seems like the most realistic way to shake things up). For now, though, their roster looks a lot like the 2019 edition. There’s still plenty of talent on hand, but there’s no more Castellanos, who emerged as one of the Cubs’ main threats at the plate after they acquired him from the Tigers prior to last July’s trade deadline.

Aside from the Pirates, who are more likely to compete for the No. 1 pick than a playoff berth this year (and whom we’ll leave out of this poll), it wouldn’t seem unrealistic to pick any of the NL Central’s teams to win the division. This year’s PECOTA projections (via Daniel Kramer of MLB.com) have the Reds grabbing the division with 86 wins and the Cubs totaling 85 en route to a wild-card spot. The system gives the Reds 66.2 percent preseason playoff odds, the Cubs 51.5 percent, the Cardinals 24.4 percent and the Brewers 20.3. We still have several weeks to go before the season opens, but as of now, which of those clubs do you think will finish on top?

(Poll link for app users)

Which team do you expect to win the NL Central?
Reds 38.92% (9,801 votes)
Cardinals 30.54% (7,691 votes)
Cubs 18.24% (4,594 votes)
Brewers 12.29% (3,094 votes)
Total Votes: 25,180
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