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Quick Hits: Free Agents, Andujar, Conley, Brasier, Cubs

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Three of the six biggest contracts in baseball history have been signed within the last two weeks, as Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, and (in an extension) Nolan Arenado all inked major deals.  This flurry of spending comes on the heels of a second straight winter of closed free agent activity, however, leaving the players’ union still more concerned with the scads of non-superstars who have yet to find work, Bleacher Report’s Scott Miller writes.  “Ultimately, it is about more than [a few players]; it’s the big picture,” Cardinals reliever Andrew Miller said.  “And even guys getting deals that they’re happy with, the timing of it, in the past it used to be maybe a couple of guys played the long game [in negotiations], but now it seems like guys have no choice.  The stories we hear when guys show up to camp is that they had no offers. Teams said they’d check in, but they’re really not getting a firm offer or numbers exchanged until camp opens, and that’s a problem. Or, it’s at least new to us.”

Some more from around baseball as we kick off a new week…

  • Miguel Andujar’s huge rookie season was one reason the Yankees didn’t ardently pursue Machado, though now that Andujar has third base to himself, the New York Times’ James Wagner writes that the young slugger has been working to prove his defensive worth at the position.  Andujar has been taking fielding training all winter, with particular focus on his footwork and throwing.  There’s obviously quite a bit of room for improvement, as Andujar had far and away the worst UZR/150 (-24.5) and Defensive Runs Saved (-25) of any qualified third baseman in the sport last season.  If Andujar can go from being a liability in the field to even just mediocre, it will give the Yankees all the more reason to keep his potent bat in the lineup as often as possible.
  • A move to the bullpen in 2018 got Adam Conley’s career back on track after he struggled as a starter the previous season, and as MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro writes, the new role has unlocked Conley’s velocity.  Never considered a hard thrower as a starter, MLB.com’s Statcast credited the Marlins southpaw with an 89.7mph average velocity on his four-seam fastball in 2017.  Last season, however, that same pitch clocked in at 95.2mph.  Beyond just the natural velocity bump that comes with tossing shorter outings as a reliever, Conley also straightened out his mechanics.  This led to some solid numbers (4.09 ERA, 2.78 K/BB rate, 8.9 K/9) over 50 2/3 IP out of Miami’s bullpen, though still with room for improvement, as Conley allowed a lot of hard contact.  Still, it certainly seems like Conley could play a big role in a wide-open Marlins bullpen, perhaps even getting some looks in save situations.
  • Ryan Brasier has begun throwing from 90 feet, Red Sox manager Alex Cora told MassLive.com’s Christopher Smith and other reporters, as Brasier continues to recover from a toe infection.  The issue has slowed Brasier’s spring work, though the right-hander and potential closer candidate is expected to be ready for Opening Day.
  • The Cubs bullpen doesn’t have a ton of questions as it relates to personnel, though there is still quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding the relief corps, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian explores five unanswered questions heading into the season.  Brandon Kintzler and Brian Duensing, for instance, seem to have jobs locked up, though are looking to rebound after subpar 2018 seasons.  It also still isn’t clear who will win the eighth bullpen spot, as Tyler Chatwood (another pitcher who struggled last year) could still end up in a relief role if the rotation doesn’t suffer any injuries.

Pitching Notes: Farrell, Chatwood, J. Nelson, Cessa

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Rangers pitcher Luke Farrell suffered a non-displaced fracture of his right jaw Saturday, the team announced. The injury occurred when a line drive off the bat of the Giants’ Jalen Miller struck Farrell in the face, forcing the right-hander out of the game and to a Scottsdale, Ariz., hospital for examination. Farrell has since been released from the hospital, but he’ll undergo further examination Monday, according to the Rangers. The son of former big league manager John Farrell, Luke Farrell is in his first spring with the Rangers, who claimed him off waivers from the Angels in January. The 27-year-old spent 2018 as a member of the Cubs, with whom he registered a 5.17 ERA/5.20 FIP and 11.2 K/9 against 4.6 BB/9 in 31 1/3 innings.

  • Just 15 months removed from signing a three-year, $38MM contract with the Cubs, righty Tyler Chatwood isn’t a lock to make their roster this season, Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune observes. Chatwood said Saturday he views himself as a starter, but he’s not a candidate for Chicago’s season-opening rotation if the quintet remains healthy, leaving him to fight for a long relief role. If he doesn’t win the job, the Cubs could try to trade Chatwood, but they’d have to eat a large chunk of the $25.5MM left on his contract in order to make that a realistic possibility, Gonzales notes. Chatwood was in the Cubs’ rotation for the majority of last season, as he made 20 starts in 24 appearances, but he managed a hideous 5.30 ERA/5.50 FIP and issued an eye-popping 95 walks in 103 2/3 innings. So far this spring, Chatwood has walked just one batter over five frames in his bid for a roster spot.
  • Brewers righty Jimmy Nelson had to pause his throwing program earlier this week because of arm fatigue, but he’s now on track to throw his first live batting practice of the spring Monday, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel reports. It’s a long time coming for Nelson, who hasn’t pitched to live hitters since he underwent shoulder surgery in September 2017, thus knocking a promising career off the rails.
  • Yankees righty Luis Cessa is the front-runner for a season-opening long relief role, Bryan Hoch of MLB.com suggests. While Cessa would need to beat out fellow righties Domingo German and Jonathan Loaisiga for the spot, it should help the former’s cause that he’s the only one who has no minor league options left, Hoch points out. And Cessa has pitched well this spring, leading manager Aaron Boone to say Saturday he has “a really good opportunity” to make the team. The soon-to-be 27-year-old would be the least heralded member of the Yankees’ stacked bullpen, having pitched to a 4.71 ERA/5.03 FIP with 6.85 K/9 and 2.62 BB/9 in 151 innings with the club since 2016.

NL Central Notes: Martinez, Hamels, Diaz

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Carlos Martinez’s right shoulder is a major source of uncertainty for the Cardinals right now, as the righty was in camp with his arm in a sling yesterday following a platelet-rich plasma injection. Martinez was already halfway through a two-week shutdown when he received the injection, and the Cardinals indicated yesterday that said injection could push his timeline for throwing back another week. There’s been ample talk of Martinez pitching in a relief capacity this season, but Rick Hummel of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch quotes Martinez as plainly and confidently stating, “I’m going to start, man.” Because Martinez won’t resume throwing until mid-March, it seems virtually impossible for him to build up to a starter’s workload by the team’s season opener on March 28. As such, if there is indeed a plan for Martinez to work in the rotation, he’d need to start the season on the injured list. As Hummel writes, that’d open the door for one of Dakota Hudson or Austin Gomber to step into the starting five to begin the season. Manager Mike Shildt praised both Hudson and Gomber when discussing potential rotation options with Hummel.

Elsewhere in the NL Central…

  • Asked about his future in the game Wednesday, Cubs lefty Cole Hamels told a flock of reporters that he has zero intention of retiring anytime soon (Twitter link via MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand). There’s been little reason to think that Hamels, who just turned 35 in December, would give serious consideration to retirement, but his answer was nonetheless entertaining and telling of his goals. Hamels gave a blunt “Hell no!” when asked if he’s considered retirement and voiced a desire to play until he’s 45 years old, noting that he was a teammate of ageless wonder Jamie Moyer early in his career. Hamels had a rocky start to the season with the Rangers in 2018 but was revitalized by a trade to Chicago, as he pitched to a brilliant 2.36 ERA with 8.7 K.9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.7 HR/9 and a 47.7 percent grounder rate in 76 1/3 innings with the Cubs (12 starts).
  • Pirates catcher Elias Diaz is battling a viral illness, and it’s questionable whether he’ll be ready for Opening Day, as Nubyjas Wilborn of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes. Pirates director of sports medicine Todd Tomczyk said that Diaz will be shut down from baseball activity for “a couple of weeks.” The 28-year-old Diaz quietly enjoyed somewhat of a breakout season in 2018, hitting .286/.339/.452 with 10 homers and a dozen doubles in just 277 plate appearances. He’s still firmly behind Francisco Cervelli on the team’s depth chart, but with Cervelli entering the final season of his current contract, the 2019 campaign could be a proving grounds for Diaz as he eyes the starter’s job in 2019. Presumably, 29-year-old Jacob Stallings would serve as Cervelli’s backup early in the year if Diaz isn’t ready to go, as he’s the only other catcher on Pittsburgh’s 40-man roster. The Bucs have minor league veteran Steven Baron in camp on a minor league deal as well.

Kris Bryant: No Extension Talks With Cubs But Willing To Listen

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Star Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant discussed some largely hypothetical contractual matters today with reporters including Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune. Notably, he has not been approached by the organization about a potential long-term deal.

Bryant, 27, saw his productivity dip in an injury-limited 2018 campaign. But that’s only against his own lofty standards. Bryant, who’ll earn $12.9MM this year with two more arb seasons still to come, still rates among the best all-around players in baseball.

There was perhaps some reason to wonder whether the Cubs might see an opportunity to explore an extension, but that hasn’t happened yet. Bryant says he’d “be dumb not to hear anything they have to offer,” so it seems he’d be receptive to holding talks, though it also stands to reason that he’d put a lofty asking price on his future rights.

From a broader perspective, Bryant suggested that the recent extension of Nolan Arenado was a promising development in a player market that is still adjusting to the current collective bargaining agreement. “It’s nice to see another third baseman sign for that much,” he said.

Though Bryant is in quite a different situation than Arenado, who’s only ten months older and would have been a free agent after the coming season, the just-inked contract certainly bears on a hypothetical extension for the former. Bryant is arguably a slightly superior player, after all, and both sides would likely see the AAV on Arenado’s bought-out free-agent seasons as a highly relevant comp.

Zooming out yet further, Bryant also emphasized the fact that smaller-market teams have given out some of the biggest contracts in recent years. Players, he suggests, are well aware of teams’ spending capacities: “Everybody has money. We’re not stupid.”

Service Time Perspectives: Vlad, Bryant, Senzel

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With camp in full swing, we’re watching some of the game’s very best prospects share the field with existing big leaguers. That creates opportunity both for excitement at the youngsters’ eventual regular-season ascent and consternation at the anticipated timing thereof. As teams near decision points on another crop of players, with accusations of service-time manipulation already lurking, let’s take a look at some interesting recent comments on prospect promotion timing:

  • Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins discussed uber-prospect Vladimir Guerrero Jr. today in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Sirius XM (audio via Twitter). Citing the organization’s focus on “development,” Atkins says of Guerrero: “I just don’t see him as a major league player.” While the consensus top prospect in baseball “has accomplished everything he can accomplish as an offensive player” in the minors, Atkins says, there’s evidently more he needs to work on before he’s to be trusted with a big league job. That includes “the physical aspect, the baserunning, the defense,” per the GM. (That first point represents a nod at Guerrero’s shape, John Lott of The Athletic suggests on Twitter.) The Toronto organization wants Guerrero to “start[] with an incredible foundation” once he reaches the majors so that it can “tap into all of that potential,” says Atkins. Some projection systems already regard Guerrero as one of the most capable hitters on the planet, even without having seen him against MLB pitching, so there’s no question of his readiness in that regard. The Jays, though, purport to believe that the other aspects of his game can benefit more from further game action at the Triple-A level.
  • There are certainly those who’d take a skeptical view of the true motivations where Guerrero and others are concerned. Cubs star Kris Bryant is among them, as Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reports (subscription link). Bryant believes the annual top-prospect hold-back represents an effort by teams to exploit “a loophole in the system.” His own promotion timeline more or less represents the most outwardly obvious service-time manipulation imaginable: Bryant was a polished, well-rounded college player who had laid waste to the upper minors and Cactus League pitching and was called upon as soon as the team secured the ability to control him for a full additional season. “It’s funny how obvious it can be,” said Bryant. “But now I can look back on it and just laugh about it because I was told to work on my defense too and I think I got three groundballs in those games that I played,” he added. The Chicago third baseman says that solving the issue will require “compromise” and “a logical solution,” noting that changes to free agent outcomes also serve to highlight the concerns for players.
  • Another much-hyped young player, top Reds prospect Nick Senzel, also has adopted a realistic (bordering on jaded) perspective as he nears his debut. He tells C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic (subscription link) that he’s skeptical whether he really has a chance to head north out of camp with the MLB club. “Do I believe it? No,” he said of the Reds’stated intention to carry their best roster out of the gate without reference to service time. “But that’s just my honest opinion. We’ll see.” The Reds do have cover in this case, as Senzel’s 2018 season was cut short by injury and he’s transitioning to a new position, though he could put any questions to rest over the next few weeks. It’s particularly frustrating in Senzel’s case, Rosencrans notes, because he was on track to receive a late-2018 call-up before suffering a broken index finger that cost him the second half of last year.

Central Injury Notes: Darvish, Gray, Duffy, Dunning

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Though he was clearly carrying plenty of rust, Cubs righty Yu Darvish nevertheless turned in a rather promising first spring outing today, as MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian writes. Darvish says he felt great and the radar guns reflected it. While he struggled a bit to stay in the zone, that’s a secondary concern at this point given the major health ailments that ruined his 2018 season. With $101MM still owed to Darvish over the next five years, the Cubs have to be encouraged to see him feeling strong, though he still has a ways to go to reestablish himself as a front-line starter.

More health notes from the central divisions …

  • Reds right-hander Sonny Gray, who was scratched from his spring debut due to some elbow stiffness, is expected to throw a bullpen session Thursday, writes MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand. The team’s most notable offseason addition to the rotation, Gray will also throw from flat ground at a distance of 120 feet today, per the Cincinnati Enquirer’s John Fay (Twitter link). Manager David Bell told Feinsand that Gray was initially concerned about the elbow discomfort but is in vastly better spirits and has felt improvement each day since being scratched. For the time being, it seems, the Reds have decreasing reason to be concerned about Gray’s status.
  • The Royals are “backing off” from using Danny Duffy for the time being, manager Ned Yost tells reporters (Twitter links via Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star). The southpaw experienced tightness in his shoulder and had difficulty getting loose for his latest side session, though he eventually completed that session. Duffy feels it’s a minor issue and some standard-issue early spring stiffness. The Royals are already down a rotation candidate with righty Trevor Oaks perhaps headed for hip surgery, and subtracting arguably their most talented starter from the mix would be a considerably more damaging blow. Duffy, 30, struggled through a down season in 2018 but was Kansas City’s best arm in 2016-17 when he worked to a 3.64 ERA with 8.8 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9 in 326 innings.
  • There was some ominous news out of White Sox camp, as Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com tweets that pitching prospect Dane Dunning is due for a closer medical look after experiencing forearm discomfort. The talented young righty has shown quite well ever since he cracked the professional ranks and entered the 2018 campaign as a consensus top-100 prospect leaguewide. Unfortunately, he missed half of the 2018 season owing to an elbow sprain. The hope was that Dunning would be able to pick up where he left off this spring.

Cubs Yet To Discuss Extensions With Javy Baez, Kyle Hendricks

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The Cubs haven’t yet begun talks with second baseman Javier Baez or right-hander Kyle Hendricks about potential contract extensions, the two players told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times.  Both said that they “would love to stay” with the team over the long term, and would welcome such negotiations if they took place.

Both Baez and Hendricks avoided arbitration with the Cubs this winter, agreeing to respective salaries of $5.2MM and $7.405MM for the 2019 season.  Baez was arb-eligible for the first of three times this winter and isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2021 campaign, while Hendricks was in his second arbitration year and can become a free agent after the 2020 season.

It is still early in spring camp, and the Cubs could yet begin talks with Baez, Hendricks, or any number of players over the coming weeks.  Still, Baez and Hendricks stand out as perhaps the two most obvious extension candidates on the roster, even beyond the notable players who could be free agents after the 2019 season.  Of that group, the Cubs control Anthony Rizzo and Jose Quintana via club options for 2020, while the team probably isn’t likely to explore extending veterans like Cole Hamels or Ben Zobrist until later in the year or even after the season, to guard against declines from either veteran (Hamels is 35, Zobrist is 37).

Baez broke out as one of the game’s best all-around players last season, hitting .290/.326/.554 with 34 homers and a league-high 111 RBI over 645 plate appearances.  Baez augmented his first above-average run producing (131 wRC+) season with solid overall baserunning that included 21 steals, as well as his typically strong glovework at multiple infield positions (699 2/3 innings at second base, 462 2/3 IP at shortstop, 142 2/3 IP at third base).  Among all position players, Baez ranked 10th in bWAR (6.3) and 14th in fWAR (5.3) last season.

With Kris Bryant indicating a willingness to go year-to-year until he reaches free agency after 2021, Baez stands out as the Cubs’ top young building block.  Among other recent young infielders to sign extensions, Eugenio Suarez’s seven-year, $66MM deal with the Reds and Jean Segura’s five-year, $70MM extension with the Mariners could be potential comps, even if neither quite fit Baez’s situation.  For instance, Suarez was locking in his first big professional payday as something of a surprise breakout performer, whereas Baez was a hyped prospect for years before reaching the big leagues.  Segura was also over a year older at the time of his extension than Baez is now, and had only one arbitration year remaining.

Hendricks, meanwhile, has been a solid and usually durable member of Chicago’s rotation for four seasons.  Something of a throwback pitcher with a sub-90mph fastball, Hendricks has relied on soft-to-medium contact rather than big strikeouts (career 7.62 K/9) to good effect in his career, posting a 3.14 ERA over the 708 2/3 innings since 2015.  The 29-year-old’s best season came in the Cubs’ World Series campaign of 2016, when Hendricks posted a league-best 2.13 ERA.

Hendricks’ arsenal might help him project better as a long-term investment for the Cubs or potential future free agent suitors, as it isn’t like he is a hard-tossing strikeout artist who could be more apt to decline with a loss in velocity.  What could harm Hendricks’ chances at an extension, however, is that Chicago made such a huge investment in its starting staff, and gotten next to nothing in return from Yu Darvish and Tyler Chatwood.  Beyond 2020, however, Hamels, Chatwood, Quintana, and potentially Jon Lester (depending on a vesting option) will no longer be on the books, leaving the Cubs in search of arms.  Prospects like Adbert Alzolay, Alec Mills, or Justin Steele could be contributing by that point, of course, though the Cubs might also want to have another solid veteran on hand to augment that bunch.  (Also, the Cubs have had enough difficulty in developing pitchers in recent years that relying on prospects doesn’t seem sound.)

Of course, as Wittenmyer notes, discussions about extensions also need to factor in whether a player could be more apt to sign an extension rather than test an increasingly hostile free agent market.  “You have to look at what’s going on around the league, for sure.  You have to educate yourself on things that have happened in the past and what the market looks like now, then make the best decision possible,” Hendricks said.  The threat of a potential work stoppage could impact Baez the most directly, as the current Collective Bargaining Agreement expires on December 1, 2021 — roughly a month after Baez is eligible to hit free agency.

NL Central Notes: Cardinals, Moose, Reds, Montgomery

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Though the Cardinals have a deep mix of rotation candidates, Bernie Miklasz of The Athletic explores the uncertainty surrounding many of those arms in a call for the St. Louis organization to pursue free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel (subscription required). The Cards can’t know what to expect from Adam Wainwright, Miklasz writes, and the recent shoulder troubles for Carlos Martinez have raised some questions as well. Michael Wacha, too, has had his share of injuries in recent seasons and made only 15 starts in 2018. And while ballyhooed prospect Alex Reyes has a sky-high ceiling, he’s pitched just four innings across the past two seasons (27 frames, including the minors) and will obviously be limited in ’19 as a result. Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas each have just one season of MLB success under their belt, and the depth options for the rotation are even less established.

Furthermore, each of Mikolas, Wacha and Wainwright are free agents next winter, creating some potential needs down the line. Miklasz does write, however, that the Cardinals are “confident” of reaching an extension with Mikolas. Both sides expressed interest in such a deal late last month.

Here’s more from the NL Central…

  • Mike Moustakas met with reporters upon his arrival at Brewers camp this week to discuss his offseason and his new position: second base (video link courtesy of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel). “It’s going to be fun,” said Moustakas of playing second base. “Obviously, it’s going to be new. I’ve been over there a couple of times in the shift, so it’s kind of comfortable at this point. … Me and Counsell talked about — even last year, we talked about it when I got traded over.” Moustakas had no gripes about being asked to make the switch even though last season it was Travis Shaw who slid to second base. Rather, he touted Shaw’s “phenomenal” glove at the hot corner and voiced trust in the Brewers’ data/analytics department to help position him for success at his new spot on the diamond. There are, of course, some other intricacies to handle, though Moustakas noted that the middle infield isn’t totally foreign to him, considering he was drafted as a shortstop (and logged 561 innings there in the low minors from 2007-08). “…That double play is something we’re going to have work on and get used to, and cutoffs, relays — being in the right position. I’ll get the hang of it.”
  • Because the Reds have yet to add a true center field option to the roster, Scott Schebler is among the top options to break camp in that role, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. The 28-year-old does have a nominal amount of experience at the position, having logged a combined 358 innings there across the past three seasons. “I’m interested to see him in center,” rookie manager David Bell said to Sheldon. “Everyone I’ve talked to that has seen him, people are confident that he can do it. I am, too, but it’ll be a good opportunity to see him out there. I’m convinced he can be really good in left and right.” Schebler will have some competition for the center field gig in the form of Yasiel Puig and top prospect Nick Senzel, though Senzel played in only 44 games last season due to a fractured finger and vertigo symptoms; he was also forced to sit out the Arizona Fall League after undergoing elbow surgery.
  • Cole Hamels’ return to the Cubs all but eliminated Mike Montgomery’s chances of opening the season in the team’s rotation, but Montgomery nonetheless tells MLB.com’s Jordan Bastian that he was “rooting” for the team to retain Hamels. Montgomery will return to a role with which he’s quite familiar — one that requires him to be ready to start, pitch in high-leverage spots late in games and also to enter in multi-inning stints as needed. “Be a guy that can start 20 games or close 20 games, because it has to be [that way],” said Montgomery. As Bastian notes, Montgomery not only started 19 games in Chicago last season, he also entered the game in eight different innings as a reliever and pitched multiple innings of relief on seven occasions. The versatile lefty is controlled through the 2021 season and will earn $2.44MM in 2019 as a first-time arbitration-eligible player.

NL Notes: Robertson, Holland, Cardinals, Moose, Cubs

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David Robertson decided to act as his own agent while jumping into free agency this winter, eventually landing a two-year, $23MM deal from the Phillies (plus a $12MM club option for 2021).  While the final result was successful, Robertson told Philly.com’s Scott Lauber that he had a few nagging doubts once other relievers came off the board and he was still unsigned as the calendar turned to 2019.  “That was probably one of the times during the process when I kind of thought, ’Am I doing the right thing?’ ” Robertson said. “But I tried to stay calm and level-headed and see the bigger picture and know that I have a good set of skills, that the right teams I had spoken to were interested, and it was just a matter of figuring it out and getting an actual deal done.”  The self-representation stance also created an interesting dynamic on the other side of the negotiating table, as Phillies GM Matt Klentak admitted “when you’re talking directly to a player about contracts, sometimes I found myself being a little more guarded with what I would say than I might be with an agent.”

Some more from around the National League…

  • Greg Holland had a much rougher trip through free agency in the 2017-18 offseason.  The veteran reliever described his quest to sign a contract and subsequent rough 2018 season to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale as a situation that “snowballed for me and spiraled out of control for me.”  Holland’s services were weighed down by a qualifying offer, and he said that talks with the Rockies abruptly ended after Colorado pivoted to sign Wade Davis rather than wait for Holland to further test the market.  As a result, Holland didn’t find a new team until he signed a one-year deal with the Cardinals on Opening Day, and the lack of a proper Spring Training led to disastrous on-field results.  “Physically, I felt great, I felt healthy.  But you’re throwing to college guys, and a week later you’re pitching in the major leagues in a tie game,” Holland said.  “You can only emulate so much of a big-league game….The quicker you can get into a scenario where you’re facing Major League talent on a consistent basis, you’re going to be more successful.”  This winter, Holland signed a one-year, $3.25MM deal with the Diamondbacks, as the right-hander looks to get his career back on track.
  • Holland’s slow start could factor into the Cardinals’ decision about pursuing any current free agents this spring, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  President of baseball operations John Mozeliak implied that if the team did add any new faces on minor league deals, a stint in extended Spring Training could be required or even “demanded” of any new signing.  “So, lesson learned from last year perhaps?  I think for sure,” Mozeliak said.  “You have to take something away from that. The outcome [with Holland] was not what we wanted. I think we did learn our lesson.”  Goold also observes that the Cards could face something of a roster crunch as they juggle multiple out-of-options players, so some trades could potentially come later in the spring.
  • Mike Moustakas was hoping to return to the Brewers, and the third baseman reportedly turned down a multi-year offer from another team, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets.  Moustakas and the Brew Crew agreed to a one-year, $10MM deal today that includes a mutual option for 2020, providing at least a chance at a longer-term stay in Milwaukee for the third baseman, though mutual options are rarely exercised.  The Angels, Phillies, and Padres were all known to have at least checked in about Moustakas at various points this offseason, though The Athletic’s Dennis Lin notes that San Diego’s interest was “tempered.”
  • Potential new additions have “not been a heavy part of the discussion” between Cubs skipper Joe Maddon and the front office, Maddon told Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times and other reporters.  “That doesn’t mean it’s not going to happen; I’m not saying that,” Maddon said.  “But…I anticipate what you see showing up tomorrow [at camp], the [Opening Day] group’s going to be derived from that group.”  It has been a quiet offseason for a Cubs team that is seemingly dealing with strict budget restraints, as the Northsiders try to stay under the $246MM payroll mark (to avoid a larger luxury tax penalty).

NL Central Notes: Tazawa, Brach, Pirates, Goldschmidt

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Junichi Tazawa is set to arrive in Cubs camp on Monday after working out visa issues that delayed his arrival, per the Chicago Tribune’s Mark Gonzales. Tazawa remains a long shot to make the Cubs Opening Day roster, as he hasn’t been an asset to a major league bullpen since 2016 with the Red Sox. After posting a 7.07 ERA for the Marlins and Angels last season, Tazawa looks to re-establish himself in Cubs camp for former employer Theo Epstein, though again, the window of opportunity in Chicago is slim. Pedro Strop, Carl Edwards Jr., Steve Cishek, Mike Montgomery, Brandon Kintzler, and newcomer Brad Brach all figure to hold down spots in the Chicago pen, leaving Tazawa to compete for the final remaining innings with Xavier Cedeno, Tyler Chatwood, Alec Mills, Brian Duensing, Dillon Maples, Randy Rosario, and a few others. Brandon Morrow’s injury provides a limited-time opportunity for someone, but he’ll obviously take over one of those open spots when he returns for the injured list. Here are a few more notes from the Cubs bullpen and the rest of the NL Central…

  • A couple weeks before being traded from the Orioles to the Braves last season, reliever Brad Brach noticed his arm slot had shifted higher than usual, writes the Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma. When his release point shifts over-the-top, Brach loses some of the deception in his delivery and changes the plane of his pitch movement. He is cognizant, however, that he’s more effective as he stays closer to a three-quarters delivery. The mechanical adjustment certainly seemed to help as he turned in 23 2/3 innings of 1.52 ERA ball after joining the Braves. His peripherals don’t wholly buy the shift in performance, but his fastball command certainly improved and that’s the foundation of his arsenal. Of course, the revelation is only one part of the process, as refining and automating the lower arm slot will continue to be a process as he starts throwing again this season. If Brach can repeat his delivery consistently, he may prove to be a significant addition to a Cubs pen who needs the help.
  • Brach should have no trouble keeping his competitive edge with the Cubs, who are facing a dogfight in a tight National League Central. There’s no tanking here, where the Reds have raised the floor with marked improvements to their rotation this offseason. The Cardinals and Brewers have made obvious win-now additions this winter as well, and while the Cubs have largely stood pat (excepting additions like Brach above), there’s little doubt they will be in the competitive mix once again. The sleeper in the division and maybe the league is the Pirates, per Ben Frederickson of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The PECOTA projection system has the Pirates ahead of the Cubs, and though they’ve been quiet this winter, their biggest additions were made at least year’s deadline when they traded for Chris Archer and Keone Kela. It would certainly be a surprise for the Pirates to steal the NL Central from such a crowded field, but they’re only three years removed from the most successful stretch in recent franchise history and they finished above .500 last season. A Pirates division title would be surprising, for sure, but it’s not inconceivable.
  • In a video for CBS Sports, Jim Bowden expresses optimism that Paul Goldschmidt will outperform both Bryce Harper and Manny Machado en route to an MVP-type season. Goldschmidt should certainly bolster the Cardinals offense in 2019, though his long-term future with the club remains uncertain. The Cardinals are pursuing an extension with Goldschmidt, and given the current free agent market, Goldy would be wise to at least consider locking up his long-term future now if the offer is fair.
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