Free Agent Rumblings: Walker, Cobb, Chatwood, Minor, Lucroy, Bautista
As major league organizations compete to bring home the shiniest new cars in Playoffville (Copyright Scott Boras), let’s check in on the latest rumored connections:
- The Pirates have at least “some interest” in old friend Neil Walker, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets. Morosi cites uncertainty surrounding Jung Ho Kang as driving the possibility of a reunion, though as MLB.com’s Adam Berry writes, there’s another perspective on that subject, too. GM Neal Huntington says there’s still some hope that Kang will be able to return and finish his contract. If not, though, he feels the team is in good shape in the infield without him, due in part to the acquisition of Sean Rodriguez over the summer.
- It seems there’s some mutual interest between the Cubs and righty Alex Cobb, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes. That’s not a surprising connection, given the common roots with the Rays of Cobb and several key Cubs figures. The sides have engaged in preliminary discussions, though Wittenmyer’s sources tell him that contract particulars haven’t yet been broached.
- Another starter getting a bite is Tyler Chatwood, in whom the Orioles have shown interest, per Morosi (via Twitter). That’s a connection that comes as little surprise. Baltimore is going to have to take some chances to fill out its staff, and Chatwood looks to be one of the market’s more interesting possibilities to provide value. He won’t turn 28 until December and has posted solid results outside of Coors Field, prompting MLBTR to predict a three-year deal (albeit at a relatively modest annual value). While Camden Yards and the AL East are an intimidating prospect for many pitchers, Chatwood at least has plenty of experience dealing with similar challenges.
- The Mets are among the teams with interest in free agent southpaw Mike Minor, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. We’ve heard recently about New York’s desire to pursue impact relief pitching, and Minor certainly fits that mold. Given his past history as a starter and dominance against southpaws last year, the 29-year-old would provide quite a bit of functionality.
- The Astros are showing some interest in free agent catcher Jonathan Lucroy, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag (via Twitter). Lucroy could make for an interesting fit in Houston, though adding a backstop of that quality no doubt would represent a luxury for the team that already has most everything. Presumably, the ‘Stros could plan to split time between Lucroy and fellow veteran Brian McCann, with the other spending quite a lot of time at DH (if not also some first base). Signing Lucroy could mean non-tendering Evan Gattis, though he might also be retained and also utilized in the same rotation. There are certainly some intriguing possibilities here, though Lucroy should also be pursued by others that might offer him significant time as a primary catcher.
- It seems the Rays could again be a suitor for veteran slugger Jose Bautista, per Morosi (Twitter links). Talks haven’t really progressed to this point, but that’s hardly surprising — particularly since Tampa Bay’s entire offseason approach remains largely unclear. For his part, Bautista is said to be willing to spend time at DH or the corner infield, per agent Jay Alou.
NL Central Rumors: Brewers, Iglesias, Reds, Cubs, Davis, Lackey
The Brewers are not ruling out significant additions on the pitching market, it seems. When asked yesterday about the possibility of landing a premium-cost starter, GM David Stearns said that “it makes sense to cast a wide net,” as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy reports. That guarded phrasing hardly promises a major move, but it keeps things open, and that’s what Stearns says the focus is right now. He explained: “Generally, at this stage of the offseason, you try to determine what might be realistic, what might make sense, and then you plot your offseason strategy from there.” MLBTR’s Steve Adams previously highlighted Milwaukee as a potential pursuer of top pitchers this winter.
Here’s the latest from the NL Central:
- At this stage, at least, reports of interest in Reds closer Raisel Iglesias probably ought to be taken with a grain of salt — not because there isn’t much interest, but because it’s so widespread. Per president of baseball operations Dick Williams, “the fair assumption would be that two-thirds of the teams would have interest without having them have to call,” as Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. While the club surely won’t be rash in dealing Iglesias, Williams does note that the team isn’t “holding on to him out of fear of what the rest of the bullpen would do.” At the same time, other clubs are being given the sense that Cincinnati intends to keep Iglesias, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, so it seems likely that it’ll take a significant offer to gain traction in talks.
- The Reds do recognize they are well-stocked in the outfield, though Williams suggests it’s more depth than a true “surplus” from which to trade. That appears to be a fair take; while Cincinnati could end up with a bit of a playing-time logjam if things break right, that’s also far from a given. Generally, the team’s top baseball decision-maker says to expect “an opportunistic approach” to the offseason — which may also require some patience from fans.
- Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago provides an interesting overview of the dynamics that will shape the Cubs‘ efforts this offseason. GM Jed Hoyer tells Mooney that the team is approaching trade talks both with an open mind and with a loyalty to the players they’ve developed into the core of a winning club. That said, Hoyer stressed that the front office’s “No. 1 loyalty” is to Cubs fans and positioning the team to win another World Series. That, Hoyer says, could put the team into an unenviable position of having to consider trades of young players they value highly. “Certainly, I’d love to have an offseason where we didn’t have to do anything like that,” says Hoyer. “But in order to get better and make improvements in certain areas, we might.
- Meanwhile, Mooney looks at the team’s chances of re-signing closer Wade Davis as a free agent. Chicago viewed Aroldis Chapman purely as a rental when they acquired him in 2016 and let him walk as a free agent accordingly, Mooney writes, but they view Davis in a different light. President of baseball ops Theo Epstein says the Cubs “think the world” of Davis and will make an effort to bring back a player they feel is important both on and off the field. As Mooney points out, a number of big-market clubs already have high-priced closers, which could take some of them out of the running for Davis.
- Hoyer confirmed to reporters that right-hander John Lackey has indeed signaled that he aims to pitch once again in 2018 (Twitter link via ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers). Re-signing Lackey is “certainly” something the Cubs are going to talk about, per Hoyer. It remains to be seen how aggressively Chicago will pursue Lackey coming off a generally disappointing season in which he yielded an NL-high 36 homers. But, the Cubs stand to potentially lose both Lackey and Jake Arrieta this winter, so they’ll assuredly be in the market for multiple arms.
Orioles Willing To Entertain Offers On Zach Britton
The Orioles are willing to listen to trade scenarios involving closer Zach Britton, according to Jon Heyman of Fan Rag. While prior signals were that the organization would hold on to the southpaw this winter, it seems there’s now at least some possibility of a swap coming together.
Baltimore engaged in chatter involving Britton last summer and nearly dealt him to the Astros. But talks sputtered at the last minute and he ended up remaining on hand. MLBTR projects that Britton will earn a hefty $12.2MM in arbitration.
As Heyman notes, the O’s could find it advantageous to reallocate that payroll space to a rotation that’s badly in need of attention. Plus, with Britton slated for free agency after the season, this would be an opportune time to cash him in for young talent.
Houston is not presently among the organizations engaged on Britton, per the report. But the Dodgers and Cubs have already engaged in some chatter surrounding the 29-year-old hurler.
It remains unclear just how strong the market will be for Britton. Prior to the 2017 season, he had established himself as one of the game’s most dominant relievers. But the campaign didn’t quite go as hoped, as he fell short of his own lofty standards while dealing with elbow issues.
Britton ended the year with 37 1/3 innings of 2.89 ERA ball, posting 7.0 K/9 and 4.3 BB/9 while inducing grounders on more than 70% of the balls put in play against him for the fourth-straight season. While his swinging-strike rate dropped off to 11.5% after topping out at 17.2% in 2016, Britton kept his monster sinker at over 96 mph and was obviously still able to use it to draw quite a few worm-burners.
Minor MLB Transactions: 11/12/17
Here are the latest minor moves from around the game, all from Baseball America’s Matt Eddy unless otherwise credited…
- Leonys Martin is now a free agent, as he elected to hit the open market after being outrighted off the Cubs‘ roster last week. The veteran outfielder is looking to rebound from a rough 2017 that saw him post just a .513 OPS over 138 PA with the Cubs and Mariners, though Martin was still an above-average defender in the outfield.
- The Royals re-signed right-hander Seth Maness to a new minor league deal. Maness elected to become a free agent last month after K.C. outrighted him off its 40-man roster. A workhorse out of the Cardinals’ bullpen in his first three seasons, Maness has been limited to just 41 1/3 IP over the last two seasons thanks to a torn UCL, though he opted for an innovative “primary repair” procedure that allowed him a much quicker return to action than the usual 12-15 month timeline for Tommy John surgery.
- Catcher Tim Federowicz chose to become a free agent after being outrighted off the Giants‘ 40-man roster. Federowicz hasn’t hit much (a .558 OPS) over 318 career MLB plate appearances, though he has a very impressive .304/.374/.503 slash line over 1654 PA at the Triple-A level.
- The Braves released right-hander Armando Rivero. Atlanta chose Rivero in last year’s Rule 5 Draft but Rivero missed the entire season due to shoulder problems. The Braves outrighted Rivero off their 40-man roster last month, so the Cubs officially declined the opportunity to take the righty back. Rivero has a 2.70 ERA, 12.4 K/9 and 2.83 K/BB rate over 220 career innings in the minors, all as a reliever in Chicago’s system.
- Catcher Erik Kratz elected to become a free agent rather than accept an outright assignment to Triple-A, the Yankees announced earlier this week (via Twitter). Kratz spent much of 2017 at Cleveland’s Triple-A affiliate before being acquired by New York on August 31 to add some catching depth to the expanded September rosters. Kratz only appeared in four games as a Yankee, but it officially made him a veteran of six different teams over parts of eight MLB seasons. The 37-year-old has a .203/.250/.366 slash line over 649 career plate appearances in the bigs.
Quick Hits: Archer, Red Sox, Tigers, Cubs
Rays right-hander Chris Archer may come up frequently in trade rumors this offseason, but general manager Erik Neander suggested Sunday that he plans to keep the 29-year-old. Neander told MLB Network Radio that Archer “is one of our core guys” and “exactly the type of player” the Rays need to retain if they’re going to compete in the future (Twitter link). Archer, who’s signed to one of the majors’ most team-friendly contracts, will make a combined $13.75MM over the next two seasons. After that, Archer’s employer will have a chance to control him through 2021 via ultra-affordable club options ($9MM and $11MM).
- The Red Sox are hiring Craig Bjornson as their bullpen coach, according to Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston. He’ll take over for Dana Levangie, whom the team promoted to pitching coach this week. Bjornson was with the Astros from 2012-17 and spent some of that time as their bullpen coach. He was on the same staff last season as new Red Sox manager Alex Cora, who was the Astros’ bench coach during their World Series-winning campaign.
- The Cubs and Tigers still haven’t finalized the trade they made in July that saw reliever Justin Wilson and catcher Alex Avila head to Chicago for third baseman Jeimer Candelario, infielder Isaac Paredes and a player to be named later or cash, Mark Anderson of Baseball Prospectus tweets. It turns out the Tigers will receive the PTBNL in lieu of cash, but the teams haven’t decided on which player yet.
- Mike Petriello of MLB.com breaks down the most appealing free agents available based on Statcast metrics xwOBA, Sprint Speed and Outs Above Average. Going by xwOBA, right fielder J.D. Martinez stands out on the offensive side; righties Yu Darvish and Jake Arrieta bring the best track records among starters, while Pat Neshek is the top reliever. The OAA crown goes to Royals center fielder Lorenzo Cain, who falls just shy of fellow outfielder Rajai Davis in the battle for fastest runner on the market. Petriello also suggests that, based on Statcast data, outfielder Hyun Soo Kim and a trio of righties – Tyler Chatwood, Anibal Sanchez and Tyson Ross – could end up as good buy-low signings.
Central Notes: Santana, DeJong, Cubs
Although outgoing Royal Eric Hosmer is a clear bet to take home the largest contract among first basemen this winter, Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs suspects that career Indians first baseman Carlos Santana will outperform Hosmer for at least the next three years. While Hosmer is younger than Santana and had a better 2017 season by fWAR, Sawchik notes that Santana’s primary skill (his batting eye) is a better bet to age well than any other skill that either player brings to the table. Hosmer has also posted negative fWAR totals in two of his major league seasons; something Santana has never done. Worth mentioning: Santana was worth a total of 21.2 fWAR from 2011-2017, while Hosmer was worth a mere 9.9.
Elsewhere across baseball’s central divisions…
- The offseason for Cardinals‘ shortstop Paul DeJong will be an interesting one. As CBS2’s Steve Overmyer reported from New York on Thursday, DeJong has joined renowned scientist Dr. Lawrence Rocks in a lab study about the effects of heat and weather on baseball flight distance. Early returns in the study seem to indicate that while baseballs are likely to travel shorter distances as temperatures get colder, they are also likely to travel shorter distances if temperatures increase past a certain point. “As you decrease temperature, you get less bounce, like an automobile tire on a very cold day – it’s a little more brittle,” Rocks said. “As you increase temperature, the elastomeres get a little mooshy; you get less bounce.”
- While Cubs GM Jed Hoyer has declined to comment on his team’s pursuit of Shohei Ohtani, Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago suggests a plan of attack for the team in trying to acquire the Japanese ace. While bringing an end to “The Curse” is no longer a selling point (as it may have been to Jon Lester and some others, according to Mooney), Chicago still has plenty to offer as a city. Hoyer will be working hard to put together a more attractive pitch to Ohtani and his agents than the other 29 MLB teams that will be vying for the two-way star’s services.
NL Notes: Cobb, Cubs, Marlins, Mets, Reds
In an appearance on MLB Network Radio on Friday, free agent right-hander Alex Cobb spoke highly of Cubs manager Joe Maddon and pitching coach Jim Hickey, as Patrick Mooney of NBC Sports Chicago details. Cobb spent the first seven years of his career in Tampa Bay, where he played under Maddon (2011-14) and Hickey (through 2017), which has led to speculation that the Cubs will pursue him in free agency. On the possibility of joining the Cubs and reuniting with Maddon and Hickey, Cobb said, “Obviously, if we move down the line and we’re able to have some discussions with them, I’d be very honored to be able to talk with them and hopefully come to a deal.”
Before Cobb’s eligible to sign with the Cubs or another team, he’ll have to reject the Rays’ $17.4MM qualifying offer, which he hinted he’ll do when he said, “You’re talking about, hopefully, a decision that’s going to impact the next five years of your life. Based on that comment, it seems Cobb is seeking a five-year deal (MLBTR is projecting he’ll land a four-year arrangement), though he insisted that he’ll prioritize team success over money. “I’ve been through both. I’ve been through losing seasons and I’ve been through winning seasons,” he stated. “And the amount of joy that winning brings to us – it can’t be replaced by a dollar figure.”
More from the National League:
- Joe Frisaro of MLB.com breaks down offseason trade possibilities for the Marlins, who are reportedly shopping right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, second baseman Dee Gordon and third baseman Martin Prado. To get a haul for Stanton, who’s owed $295MM through 2028 (or $77MM if he opts out after 2020), Frisaro suggests the Fish should pick up one-third of the tab over the next three years. Gordon’s contract is far less complicated – he’s due a manageable $37.9MM through 2020 – which should lead to widespread interest in him, Frisaro observes. The same isn’t true of Prado, who’s coming off a below-average, injury-plagued year and will rake in $28.5MM through 2019. The Marlins’ best hope to move Prado would be to package him with a real asset – center fielder Christian Yelich, for example – Frisaro opines. Otherwise, they’re going to be stuck with the 34-year-old heading into next season.
- While the Mets could be on the hunt for a second baseman, odds are they won’t be the team that acquires Gordon, Anthony DiComo of MLB.com writes. The Mets have neither the prospect capital nor payroll flexibility necessary to put together a deal for Gordon, reasons DiComo, who estimates that the club has around $30MM to spend this offseason with needs at second or third base, the corner outfield/first base, the rotation and the bullpen.
- The Reds plan to use star third base prospect Nick Senzel all over the diamond in 2018, general manager Dick Williams tells Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. “This is a guy that played shortstop in college [at Tennessee], played third base in college, played second base as an amateur,” Williams said. “We think he’s clearly athletic enough to go to left field or right field. He’s got the bat to do it.” The 22-year-old Senzel showed off his prowess at the plate in 2017, hitting a robust .321/.391/.514 in 507 plate appearances between Single-A and Double-A, and figures to open next season at the minors’ highest level.
Free Agent Rumors: Holland, Bruce, LoMo, Hosmer, Morrow, Ichiro
Though Greg Holland turned down his $15MM player option and will also reject his $17.4MM qualifying offer, it’s not yet a foregone conclusion that his Denver days are in the past, writes FanRag’s Jon Heyman. The Rockies “believe that Holland is the right leader” for their young pitching staff and will seek to re-sign him to a more lucrative multi-year offer, per Heyman. They will, of course, face a fair bit of competition in that pursuit. Heyman lists the Cubs and Cardinals as teams that will possibly be in the market for Holland this offseason as well.
A few more early notes on the free agent market…
- Jay Bruce‘s camp is reportedly setting its sights high and asking for a five-year deal worth $80-90MM, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reported yesterday. High asking price notwithstanding, Heyman reports today in his weekly notes column that the Blue Jays, Giants, Mariners and Cardinals are four potential landing spots for Bruce in free agency. Heyman notes that Bruce should be able to comfortably land a three-year commitment that could price him out of the comfort zones of the Mets and the Indians.
- Free agent first baseman Logan Morrison told Jon Morosi and Jim Duquette in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM today that playing for his hometown Royals “would be a dream come true.” (Twitter link, with audio) Morrison fondly recalls trips to Kauffman Stadium with his father as a child and says it would be “amazing” to be able to have his grandmother come to the park and watch him play regularly in 2018. “All of that stuff would be fun,” said Morrison, “but we’ll see what happens.” The 30-year-old Morrison, meanwhile, hit .246/.353/.516 with a career-high 38 home runs in a breakout campaign with Tampa Bay this past season. Despite that huge year, he didn’t receive a qualifying offer from the Rays and therefore won’t be tied to draft pick compensation. Kansas City will have a void at first base if Eric Hosmer leaves elsewhere, though Heyman notes in the aforementioned notes column that Hosmer is still the Royals’ top priority (at least among their own impending free agents). If he signs elsewhere, the Royals would recoup a draft pick — likely at the end of the first round.
- Right-hander Brandon Morrow also appeared on MLB Network Radio today, stating that “all things being equal,” he’d prefer to return to the Dodgers (Twitter link, with audio). Morrow specified that at age 33, he’d prefer to sign with a contending team, noting that he doesn’t necessarily care about pitching as a closer versus pitching in a setup capacity. Morrow raved about the young talent and clubhouse on the Dodgers, noting that the team is poised to be a contender for years to come — a highly appealing factor to him (and other free agents). Though perhaps we shouldn’t read too much into his comments, Morrow did note that “to be able to hopefully in that for three to four years … it’s definitely an attractive situation.” Morrow does indeed seem to have a strong case for a multi-year deal after a return to prominence in L.A. this past season. We pegged him for a three-year, $24MM contract on last week’s ranking of the game’s top 50 free agents.
- Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that Ichiro Suzuki‘s agent, John Boggs, has already reached out to the Athletics to try to pitch his client’s services. Slusser the chat between the two sides as “brief,” noting that it was based on Ichiro’s relationship with A’s manager Bob Melvin, who managed Ichiro more than a decade ago. There does not appear to be a fit, she notes, though Boggs tells Slusser that Ichiro “has the ultimate desire to play” in 2018. Heyman noted in the aforementioned notes column that the Marlins did not make an offer to the 44-year-old Ichiro before declining his $2MM option.
Cubs To Hire Brandon Hyde As Bench Coach
The Cubs have decided to hire Brandon Hyde as their new bench coach, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). Chicago found itself in need when Dave Martinez departed to manage the Nationals.
Hyde, 44, is certainly a familiar face for the Cubs. He most recently served on skipper Joe Maddon’s staff as first base coach. Before that, Hyde was the bench coach under prior manager Rick Renteria and also coached for the Marlins earlier in his career.
Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 6 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents
Six different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter. Assuming the nine players turn down the one-year, $17.4MM offer, here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.
[Related: Offseason Primer: The New Qualifying Offer Rules]
Cubs
The Cubs made qualifying offers to right-handers Jake Arrieta and Wade Davis. The Cubs were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, regardless of the size of the contracts Arrieta and Davis sign, the Cubs will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.
Cardinals
The Cardinals made a qualifying offer to starter Lance Lynn. Like the Cubs, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Regardless of the amount Lynn signs for, the Cardinals will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.
Royals
The Royals made qualifying offers to center fielder Lorenzo Cain, first baseman Eric Hosmer, and third baseman Mike Moustakas. The Royals were a revenue sharing recipient. If any of their three free agents sign for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the Royals get draft pick compensation after the first round. For any of the three that signs for less than $50MM, the Royals get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B. MLBTR projects all three players to sign for well over $50MM, so the Royals should have a very favorable draft pool in 2018, potentially adding three picks in the top 35 or so if all three sign elsewhere.
Rays
The Rays made a qualifying offer to right-hander Alex Cobb. They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rockies, and Indians. However, Cobb is a borderline free agent when it comes to a $50MM contract, in our estimation. The team will be rooting for him to reach that threshold, as the Rays would then net a compensatory pick after the first round. If Cobb falls shy of that total guarantee, the Rays will receive an extra pick after Comp Round B.
Rockies
The Rockies made a qualifying offer to closer Greg Holland. They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Indians. Holland, too, is a borderline $50MM free agent, though he certainly figures to aim higher than that in the early stages of free agency. If he reaches $50MM+, the Rox will get a pick after the first round. If not, they’ll receive a pick after Comp Round B.
Indians
The Indians made a qualifying offer to first baseman Carlos Santana. They were a revenue sharing recipient and are subject to the same rules as the Royals, Rays, and Rockies. Santana is another borderline $50MM free agent in our estimation, but it’s certainly possible he clears that threshold and nets Cleveland a pick after the first round.
So, the Cubs and Cardinals already know where their draft-pick compensation will land if their qualified free agents sign elsewhere: after Competitive Balance Round B, which currently starts with pick No. 76. The Royals, Rays, Rockies, and Indians will all be rooting for their free agents to sign for at least $50MM, granting them compensation after the first round, which begins with pick No. 31.