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Cubs Notes: Price, Bullpen, Heyward

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The Cubs made a run at David Price this winter, but they weren’t necessarily close to landing him.  Chicago fell roughly $50MM short of the Red Sox’s offer, Cubs president of baseball operations Theo Epstein told WEEI this week.  “We ended up a distant third,” Epstein said.

“He’s a great pitcher and we were involved and very interested,” said Epstein, who was apparently also behind the Cardinals in the Price sweepstakes. “We thought, he’s an elite, elite pitcher, the kind that very rarely makes it to the free agent market, he’s got terrific makeup, where he influences a team not just through his performance on the field, but he’s a real culture-changer or a culture-enhancer, at the very least, in the clubhouse.”

Here’s more on the Cubs:

  • The Cubs’ current focus is on trading for relievers, major league sources tell Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  Chicago isn’t looking for high-end types like Andrew Miller of the Yankees, but they are fishing for middle-inning and setup options who would provide additional depth.  In the outfield, he adds, the Cubs’ plan is to play Jason Heyward in center field rather than add a center fielder and slide Heyward into right field.  The Cubs could also consider a trade for a starting pitcher.
  • After sitting on lower payroll numbers for six years, Cubs ownership has opened up the purse strings, Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago writes.  Epstein & Co. now have a projected $155MM payroll on the 25-man roster for 2016, eclipsing the previous watermark of $145MM in 2010.  The payroll should keep rising from here, thanks to a projected attendance hike this season and a TV contract that will give the Cubs billions of dollars worth of revenue.
  • In his introductory press conference this week, Heyward explained that he was drawn to the Cubs in part because of the roster stability he expects them to have going forward.   “Knowing the core is young and those guys are going to be around for a while is very exciting,” Heyward said, according to Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com. “I don’t want to take the highest dollar amount when my gut is telling me to go somewhere else. Being 26 years old and knowing that my contract would put me in any clubhouse for longer than most people there, you have to look at age, how fast the team is changing and how soon those changes will come about.”

AL Central Notes: Frazier, Indians, Cespedes, Rondon, Ramos

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Todd Frazier is reportedly being shopped “heavily” by the Reds, and USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the most extensive interest in Cincinnati’s third baseman is coming from the American League Central. The Indians, White Sox and Royals are all in the mix for Frazier, Nightengale hears, which aligns with previous reports connecting the three clubs to the All-Star third baseman. Both Cleveland and Chicago could use upgrades at the hot corner, while Frazier would most likely be deployed in left field were the Royals to line up with the Reds on a trade.

Elsewhere in the AL Central…

  • Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes that while the Indians may have lost a pair of trade partners when the D-backs (Zack Greinke, Shelby Miller) and Giants (Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija) each added a pair of high-profile starting pitchers, there are still plenty of clubs with interest in Cleveland’s stockpile of young, controllable pitching. Hoynes feels that the Cubs (John Lackey signing notwithstanding), Rockies, Astros, Cardinals, Marlins and rebuilding Reds are all teams that could line up as trade partners. Cleveland is looking to bolster its offense and is interested in names like Jorge Soler, Javier Baez, Marcell Ozuna and Frazier. A one-for-one trade of Frazier for either Carlos Carrasco or Danny Salazar won’t be happening, he notes, as each has five years of club control compared to Frazier’s two. But, further pieces could make the deal more appealing. Failing a trade, the Indians could turn to relatively inexpensive names on the free agent market, where they’ve been linked to Rajai Davis, Shane Victorino and Steve Pearce.
  • Although Tigers GM Al Avila ruled out a run at top-of-the-market outfielders like Yoenis Cespedes at last week’s Winter Meetings, Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press notes that owner Mike Ilitch made no such claim. Fenech writes that while the Tigers aren’t seen as a major player for Cespedes now, that could change if he lingers on the open market and his price tag drops. Ilitch bluntly stated that “[doesn’t] care about money” after signing Jordan Zimmermann, and there’s certainly the case that Cespedes’ agents at Roc Nation Sports could pitch directly to Ilitch, as Scott Boras reportedly did with Prince Fielder four years ago.
  • Also from Fenech, Tigers righty Bruce Rondon instigated a benches-clearing brawl at a game in the Venezuelan Winter League over the weekend. Fenech notes that manager Brad Ausmus had said just days prior that Rondon could work his way back into the bullpen picture by showing up to Spring Training with improved focus. The Tigers abruptly sent Rondon home with just under two weeks left in the season, citing his “effort level” as the driving factor behind the decision.
  • The Twins met with Cesar Ramos’ agents and listened to a pitch on the lefty reliever in Nashville, reports 1500 ESPN’s Darren Wolfson (via Twitter). However, Wolfson doesn’t get the sense that there’s any real movement on that front. Increasingly, it seems like the Twins will trade for the lefty reliever(s) they’re seeking.

Cubs Sign Jason Heyward

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3:43pm: Heyward receives full no-trade protection from 2016-18 and limited no-trade protection in 2019-20, tweets Jon Heyman of CBS Sports. (Heyward will have 10-and-5 rights after that point, assuming he remains with the Cubs.) Heyman also reports that Heyward receives a $20MM signing bonus that is fully deferred, adding that the he’ll earn $15MM in 2016, $21.5MM in 2017-18, $20MM in 2019, $21MM in 2020-21 and $22MM in 2022-23 (links to Twitter).

Heyward can opt out after the 2018 season, and, if he chooses not to do so, will trigger a second opt-out clause following the 2019 season by reaching 550 plate appearances in 2019, Heyman adds.

DECEMBER 15, 2:34pm: The Cubs have announced the signing and are introducing Heyward today.

DECEMBER 11, 2:29pm: FOX’s Ken Rosenthal tweets that Heyward can opt out after the third year or fourth year if he meets certain plate appearance thresholds.

1:47pm: Heyward’s contract does indeed contain the option to opt out early, reports MLB Network’s Peter Gammons (Twitter link). However, he can opt out not only once, but twice, per Gammons. ESPN Chicago’s Jesse Rogers reports (also on Twitter) that the first opt-out clause comes three years into the contract, meaning Heyward can hit the open market entering his age-29 season if he chooses.

1:35pm: Bob Nightengale of USA Today hears it’s an eight-year, $184MM deal for Heyward (Twitter link) — an annual value of $23MM.

1:04pm: Heyward’s contract guarantees him less than $185MM and is believed to be for eight years, reports Wittenmyer (Twitter link).

12:12pm: Jason Heyward has chosen to sign with the Cubs, multiple sources tell Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). Exact financial terms aren’t known, but Jon Heyman of CBS Sports tweets that the Cubs landed Heyward for less than $200MM despite the fact that the Nationals are said to have offered around, or exactly $200MM. An opt-out clause in the contract would certainly make some sense, though reports haven’t indicated that to be the case just yet. Still, Heyward’s agent, Casey Close of Excel Sports Management, has previously negotiated such clauses for clients Clayton Kershaw, Zack Greinke and Masahiro Tanaka.

Jason Heyward

Heyward, 26, adds to an exciting class of free-agent additions for the Cubs this offseason (really, in the past week or so), as the team has already agreed to a four-year, $56MM pact with Ben Zobrist and a two-year, $32MM contract with John Lackey (to say nothing of a one-year deal to bring back Trevor Cahill, who had a relatively quiet resurgence in the Chicago bullpen).

Like Lackey, Heyward rejected a qualifying offer at the beginning of the offseason, meaning he’ll cost Chicago a draft pick. The Cubs, then, will be forfeiting the No. 28 pick in the draft as well as their second-round pick, which would’ve fallen in the early 70s when factoring in the first Competitive Balance Round and compensation picks for teams losing free agents that rejected the qualifying offer.

The question following this addition, of course, will be how Heyward slots into the outfield. The three-time Gold Glove winner is known as one of the game’s premier defensive players but has been almost exclusively a right fielder. Consensus seems to be that he can handle center field if need be, but with a pair of highly controllable assets flanking him in the form of Kyle Schwarber and Jorge Soler, it’s conceivable that the team will make a move to flip a young outfielder (Soler has been mentioned in rumors far more than his young counterpart, Schwarber) in order to further strengthen the rotation. Of course, that would again leave the Cubs with a hole in center field that needs to be addressed.

Defensive metrics are, of course, imperfect, but it’s still notable that since debuting in 2010, Heyward leads all Major Leaguers, at any position, with 119 Defensive Runs Saved. He’s also the runaway leader in cumulative Ultimate Zone Rating in that time (+94.4), and his prorated UZR/150 of +18.4 trails only Juan Lagares and Andrelton Simmons among qualified fielders. Those rankings hold weight even when shortening the sample size to the past three years, as each metric agrees that Heyward is the best defensive player in the game aside from his former Atlanta teammate, Simmons.

Wherever he fits onto the diamond or into the lineup, Heyward will strengthen the Cubs not only defensively but on offense as well. Though many point to his lack of home run power in recent years — he’s averaged 13 per season since 2013 — Heyward has continually whittled away at his strikeout rate and posted consistently strong on-base percentage marks (especially relative to the declining league average in that regard). In his lone season with the division-rival Cardinals, Heyward batted .293/.359/.439 with 13 homers and 23 steals (in 26 attempts). His offensive output was 16 percent better than that of a league-average hitter when adjusting for park, by measure of OPS+, while a similar metric, wRC+, rated his park-adjusted offense to be 21 percent better than the league average.

That the Cubs will effectively be signing Heyward away from the Cardinals only sweetens the deal for the club. Much in the way that the D-backs felt extra value by keeping Zack Greinke away from the Dodgers and Giants in signing him, Heyward will not only strengthen the Cubs — his departure will weaken one of their two biggest rivals. The same can be said of Lackey, who will also jump from St. Louis to the other side of the storied rivalry between the two franchises.

The Heyward market was quiet for a good portion of the offseason, but in recent days, the finalists were said to be the Cubs, Cardinals, Nationals and possibly the Angels, while the Giants also reportedly had interest but didn’t progress to the point of making an offer.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Cubs, Jean Machi Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Cubs are in agreement with right-hander Jean Machi on a minor league contract, according to a tweet from his agent, Felix Olivo. The former Red Sox/Giants right-hander will receive an invitation to Major League Spring Training (Spanish link).

Machi, who turns 34 in February, split the 2015 season between the Red Sox and Giants, working to a combined 5.12 ERA with 6.5 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 48.6 percent ground-ball rate. Though he struggled with both clubs, posting an ERA above five with each, he still served as Boston’s closer for a spell late in the season, recording four saves following a season-ending injury to Koji Uehara.

While the 2015 season was one that Machi may want to forget, he was a very strong bullpen piece for the Giants in 2013-14. During that time, the Venezuelan righty recorded a pristine 2.49 ERA with 7.7 K/9, 2.3 BB/9 and a ground-ball rate of about 53 percent across 119 1/3 innings. Machi didn’t make his big league debut until age 30, so he’s older than the standard arbitration eligible player, but the Cubs will be able to control him via that process for four seasons, should he rediscover the form he displayed during his pair of strong seasons with the Giants.

There’s some reason to hope that Machi can indeed achieve those heights. His struggles in 2015 were largely driven by a fluky low strand rate and an elevated homer-to-flyball rate. If either or both of those figures returns to his career levels, Machi could deliver a markedly better performance in a middle relief role. His velocity, after all, held steady at 92.7 mph this past season, and ERA estimators like FIP, xFIP and SIERA felt that while he did indeed take a step back from his peak, he was better than his bottom-line results indicated.

NL Central Notes: Davis, Holliday, Walker, Lee

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The Cardinals didn’t have a strong interest in Chris Davis at the start of December and not much seems to have changed in two weeks, as USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the Cards still aren’t keen on the free agent slugger.  Of course, quite a bit has happened in the last two weeks, as St. Louis has come up short in its pursuit of such top-tier free agents as Jason Heyward and David Price.  Rather than sign Davis, the Cards seem prepared to use a Brandon Moss/Matt Adams platoon at first base this season (not to mention Stephen Piscotty also on hand as an option at first).  Here’s more from around the NL Central…

  • The Cardinals’ interest in Alex Gordon is complicated by Matt Holliday’s presence in left, FOX Sports’ Jon Morosi writes.  Aside from a handful of games at DH, Holliday has never played anywhere other than left field during his 12-year career, so someone like Gordon would have to be okay with playing in center or right for 2016 — Holliday is only under contract through this season.  Holliday has a no-trade clause, and he’s probably unlikely to waive it to go elsewhere this late in his career.  Morosi also floats an interesting little conspiracy theory, noting that Holliday and Davis are both represented by Scott Boras; so if Holliday refuses a trade and blocks a Gordon signing, that could theoretically make St. Louis a suitor for Davis if the club is intent on adding another big bat.
  • The history of Neil Walker’s long-term extension talks with the Pirates is compiled in a very interesting piece from Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.  Walker turned down a multi-year offer from the Bucs in his 2010 rookie year and talks didn’t pick up again until last winter.  The Pirates offered a three-year, $27MM extension that would’ve covered Walker’s last two arb years and his first free agent year; that was countered by a two-year, $19MM offer from Walker’s camp but the Pirates wanted a team option on that 2017 free agent year.  “The offer wasn’t very realistic.  And there was no negotiating in between. It was, ‘Here it is.’ When we countered, there was no response, so we went to the [arbitration] hearing,” Walker said.  That hearing ended up being “probably the point when I lost all faith in the organization,” as Walker was put off by the Pirates’ assessment of his play and figured his days were numbered in Pittsburgh.  Walker’s tenure with the Bucs ended last week when he was traded to the Mets for Jon Niese.  On the Walker negotiations, GM Neal Huntington said that “every agreement has to find a common middle ground. We’ve been successful on other fronts. This one was not successful. We’re as much at fault as anybody.”
  • The Pirates have some level of interest in Korean first baseman/DH Dae-ho Lee, according to Biertempfel (on Twitter).  Lee met with GMs from four clubs in Nashville, per Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News (on Twitter), though it’s not clear whether the Pirates were one of those teams.  Lee feels that he might not have a deal by the end of 2015, though he could sign sometime in January (link to Yoo’s Twitter).
  • The Cubs “had a lot of lines in the water” on the trade market, an NL executive tells Joel Sherman of the New York Post.  “The expectation is,” as Sherman writes, that the aggressive Cubs will make another big move to add a front-of-the-rotation young starter, and are dangling Jorge Soler and/or Javier Baez to make such a deal happen.

MLBTR’s Zach Links also contributed to this post

Reactions To Jason Heyward Signing With Cubs

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Not only did the Cardinals lose out on Jason Heyward – they lost out while offering the most overall money, according to Derrick Goold of the Post-Dispatch.  Two sources tell Goold that the Cardinals’ offer was greater in guaranteed value while the Cubs had the higher annual average value, at $23MM/year.  As Goold notes, this marks the second time this winter that the Cardinals made a serious run at one of the winter’s top free agents and came up short.  The other instance, of course, being their failed pursuit of David Price.

Here’s a roundup of reactions to Heyward’s massive new deal with the Cubs:

  • The Cubs’ signing of Jason Heyward has left the Cardinals feeling jilted, Benjamin Hochman of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes.  Now, the Cardinals must move on and add at least one significant piece, Hochman opines.  The writer suggests that the Cards should sign Alex Gordon toplay right field or first base, with Stephen Piscotty playing the other.
  • Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports discussed Cubs president Theo Epstein, who now finds himself at the helm of baseball’s newest juggernaut.  Within the article, Rosenthal writes that rival execs say Epstein has long been fixated on Heyward, going back to his early days with the Braves.  Rosenthal also feels that the Cubs were motivated to sign Heyward and Lackey, in part, because they were effectively taking pieces away from the rival Cardinals.
  • Things have changed in Chicago, as evidenced by the free agent additions of Heyward, Lackey, and Ben Zobrist, Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com writes.  Back in November, Epstein says that he didn’t envision the Cubs being able to do two deals in the range of $100MM this offseason.  Things quickly changed, however.
  • The Cubs now have a monster lineup headlined by Heyward, Phil Rogers of MLB.com writes.

Cafardo On Bradley, Miley, Red Sox

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A few teams, including the Royals and Cubs, inquired about Red Sox outfielder Jackie Bradley Jr. at the Winter Meetings only to be told that he was not available, according to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe.  The 25-year-old Bradley (26 next April) posted a nice .249/.335/.489 bating line in 2015 and justified the considerable defensive hype that comes with his name, saving eight to 10 runs (based on his respective Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating marks) while logging a combined 608 innings across all three outfield spots.  It’s no surprise that he drew interest and also not a surprise to hear that the Red Sox are choosing to hang on to him.

Here’s more from today’s column:

  • The Red Sox and Royals also discussed Wade Miley before he was shipped to the Mariners.  A big league source tells Cafardo that Boston asked KC for Kelvin Herrera while the Royals preferred to move Luke Hochevar.  The Red Sox ultimately opted for the Mariners deal.  Miley’s first season with Boston got off to a slow start, but the lefty rebounded from a ghastly 8.62 April ERA to 4.10 ERA with a 137-to-58 K/BB ratio across his final 178 innings of the 2015 season.
  • It “appears that” Cody Ross’ career is over. The free agent outfielder suffered a bad hip injury with the D’Backs two years ago and he hasn’t been the same player since.  The 34-year-old Ross was released by Arizona last season and later went 2-for-25 in nine games with the Athletics.  Ross has played parts of 12 MLB seasons, suiting up for the Tigers, Dodgers, Reds, Marlins, Giants and Red Sox in addition to the Diamondbacks and Athletics, and hitting .262/.322/.445.
  • Agent Joe Sambito tells Cafardo that free agent third baseman Will Middlebrooks has gotten inquiries from 11 teams.  Cafardo speculates that the Brewers could bring Middlebrooks into their third base mix.
  • Most execs and scouts that Cafardo spoke with at the Winter Meetings said that they wouldn’t give Jason Heyward a $200MM deal.  Of course, the Cubs felt differently.

Rosenthal On Leake, Orioles, Cubs, Inciarte

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Pitcher Mike Leake is willing to take significantly less to play at home in Arizona, according to sources who spoke with Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  However, D’Backs COO Tony La Russa says it’s “probably unlikely” that the team will sign him.

“It’s gone back and forth,” La Russa said. “Getting Shelby (Miller) gives us a (full) rotation. I think it’s difficult because when somebody wants to pitch for you and you really like the person, you want to try and work it out. But it’s complicated and probably unlikely.”

Here’s more from Rosenthal’s column:

  • If Chris Davis goes elsewhere, the Orioles will look to bring in a left-handed bat.  Rosenthal hears that Pedro Alvarez, Gerardo Parra and Will Venable are a few of the hitters that interest Baltimore brass.  The Orioles are also likely to explore the free agent market for a starting pitcher.
  • Many have been critical of the Orioles’ farm system depth, but GM Dan Duquette has rejected the notion that they are thin.  Duquette could put his money where his mouth is by trading for one of the Rockies’ outfielders, Rosenthal writes, but they would likely ask for Colorado native Kevin Gausman in return.
  • The Cubs are “one of a number teams” that inquired on Ender Inciarte after he went from the D’Backs to the Braves.  Still, they’re more likely to go after a starting pitcher by offering up Jorge Soler or Javier Baez.  Inciarte has five years of club control and can be a strong defensive center fielder, although he also has extensive experience at both corner positions. The 25-year-old was largely unheralded as a prospect but has batted a combined .292/.329/.386 in his first two Major League seasons, including a stellar .303/.338/.408 line in 2015.
  • The Padres, Indians, and Rays could all still move a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher, Rosenthal writes, and the Rays might be the most likely of the three.  Tampa Bay has three starters who could be solid No. 2 guys in a rotation: righty Jake Odorizzi and lefties Drew Smyly and Matt Moore.  Alex Cobb could also be conceivably moved, but he is affordable and under club control for the next two years.

Minor MLB Transactions 12-12-15

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Here are the day’s minor transactions:

  • The Tigers signed 17 minor leaguers, reports Anthony Fenech and James Jahnke of the Detroit Free Press. Among the most notable names are left-handed pitcher Drake Britton and right-handed pitchers Rafael Dolis, Lendy Castillo, and Preston Guilmet. The club also inked infielder Tommy Field. Britton, a former top Red Sox prospect, has pitched well in limited major league action. However, he scuffled with the Cubs Triple-A affiliate last season, posting a 5.08 ERA in 83 innings. Guilmet has strong minor league peripherals, but he’s struggled through 23 major league innings with a 8.22 ERA (4.28 xFIP).
  • The Tigers also inked right-handed pitcher Jake Brigham. However, his situation is unique in that he’s also pursuing a contract with NPB’s Rakuten Eagles. Brigham, soon-to-turn-28, has posted decent numbers as a minor league swingman. The Braves gave him a brief major league audition last season in which he threw 16 innings with a 8.64 ERA.
  • The Braves have signed former Reds starter David Holmberg, reports Baseball America’s Matt Eddy. Holmberg, 24, has thrown 62 major league innings over 12 starts and two relief appearances. He has a 6.24 ERA with 4.79 K/9 and 5.08 BB/9. Atlanta also acquired reliever Ethan Martin. The former Phillies swingman flashed decent stuff with command problems in the majors, leading to a 5.93 ERA, 10.43 K/9, and 5.93 BB/9 in 44 innings.
  • The Orioles have signed lefty Jeff Beliveau. The southpaw missed most of 2015 with a labrum injury. He’s experienced success as a situational reliever, including a 2.63 ERA with 10.50 K/9 and 2.63 BB/9 in 2014 (24 innings, 30 appearances).
  • The Marlins have added righty Dustin McGowan. The once successful 33-year-old pitched poorly for the Phillies while struggling with control in 2015. He was only marginally better at Triple-A. If McGowan recovers his form, he could be a valuable reliever. He has a career 4.68 ERA with 7.35 K/9 and 3.90 BB/9 in 505 innings.
  • The Mets have inked former Brewers closer Jim Henderson. Injuries caused the 33-year-old to lose his ninth inning role in 2014, and he’s failed to reestablish himself since then. Last season in 29 innings for Milwaukee’s Triple-A affiliate, Henderson posted a 4.55 ERA with 7.58 K/9 and 5.16 BB/9.
  • The Padres have signed Philip Humber to a minor league deal. Humber pitched the 2015 for the KBO’s KIA Tigers in 2015. He posted a 6.75 ERA in the offensively charged league. Humber is perhaps best remembered for his unlikely perfect game for the White Sox in April of 2012. He was also part of the haul that brought Johan Santana to the Mets.

Reported Runner-Up Offers For Heyward And Greinke

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The most important numbers involved in any free agent scenario are, obviously, the final deal terms. But the offers made by other clubs are not only interesting but also potentially tell us something about the market — both at the time of the signing and even moving forward.

We heard plenty of discussion today about how much cash was dangled in front of two of this year’s three biggest free agent pieces: Jason Heyward and Zack Greinke. Heyward reportedly agreed with the Cubs for eight years and $184MM, with a contract provision allowing him two separate opportunities to opt out of the deal and re-enter the market. Meanwhile, after exercising just such a clause to jump back into the free agent waters, Greinke inked a mind-blowing six-year, $206.5MM deal with the Diamondbacks (which included some very significant deferrals).

Before entering those arrangements, both players considered multiple other arrangements. For Heyward, the elusive $200MM barrier was reportedly met or exceeded by both the Nationals and the Cardinals. (Per Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch — here and here — and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports, on Twitter.) And at least one other team, possibly the Angels, also beat Chicago’s total guarantee with its bid. (That’s per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports, Twitter links; see here for the Halos’ late interest.)

Notably, though, we’ve not been told how many years Washington and St. Louis covered in their offers, and Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that it seems neither met the $23MM AAV that Heyward will reportedly receive. And as Keith Law of ESPN.com stresses on Twitter, it’s even more important to bear in mind that the opt-out opportunities carry significant value and that Heyward will owe less in state taxes in Illinois than he would have in the other locales.

While acknowledging the opt-out value, Passan notes that it’s nevertheless “uncommon” for a player to turn down a greater overall guarantee, and that’s largely true in the abstract. But it’s important to remember, too, that Heyward’s unique market placement — he hasn’t even reached the halfway point between 26 and 27 years of age — makes his situation quite a bit different from that of most free agents.

For one thing, Heyward’s age arguably increases the worth of those bail-out clauses even further, since he’ll gain the right to re-enter the market in advance of his age-29 season. That’s still early for a free agent, and might give Heyward a chance not only to step up his AAV (if his performance increases and/or salary inflation continues) but also to tack on more years down the line. Greinke pulled exactly that trick despite turning 32 before signing his new deal, and the upside for Heyward is even greater.

Also, gaining two opt-out points will allow Heyward to assess his market timing while keeping the future guarantee in his back pocket. That not only adds to the value going to him in this deal but also increases the uncertainty and risk for the Cubs.

It’s worth noting, too, that even if Heyward does play out the full eight years in Chicago, he’ll stand to hit the market again before he turns 35. That’s exactly the point in his career that Ben Zobrist finds himself as he joins the Cubs on a four-year, $56MM contract. There’s good reason to believe that Heyward will be plenty capable of continuing to earn money on the open market at the end of his deal, which makes it much easier (and arguably wise) to forego another year (or two) of commitment for a relatively marginal bump in the overall guarantee — all at the cost of annual earning power.

Simply put, without knowing whether the other bidders were willing to include similar opt-out terms, and without knowing the length of their proposals, it’s impossible to compare the offers. From my perspective, though, the deal that Heyward ultimately agreed to is a better contract for him than the straight ten-year, $200MM deal that we at MLBTR thought Heyward could command (see here and here).

As for Greinke, the veteran righty said today in his introductory press conference that he was literally minutes away from signing with some unknown other club before Arizona swept in. ESPN’s Molly Knight tweeted that the Giants were actually the runners up, making Greinke a six-year, $195MM offer.

But San Francisco’s president of baseball operations Brian Sabean has said publicly that the club was not comfortable promising Greinke a sixth year. And both Alex Pavlovic of CSN Bay Area (Twitter link) and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle (also on Twitter) strongly disputed the notion that the Giants had come anywhere near the D-Backs’ offer.

The Dodgers, too, are said to have balked at going to six years on Greinke, as MLB.com’s Mark Saxon was among those to note recently (Twitter link). It remains unclear how high the Los Angeles offer was, and whether it or another team was the one that nearly struck a deal with Greinke.

Looking at all of those reported offers, it seems clear that there are several clubs that have the capacity and willingness to spend much more money this winter than they have so far. That’s not to say that all will actually put that cash right back into free agency. But the potential is there, and it’s also notable that an unexpected team (the Diamondbacks) put so much cash onto the market.

All said, there’s plenty left to be spent. And that makes sense: more than half of MLBTR’s top fifty free agents — including six of the top ten — remain unsigned at present.

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