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Cody Bellinger Begins Minor League Rehab, Plays First Base

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Cody Bellinger made three plate appearances for Triple-A Iowa last night, marking the first game of his minor league rehab assignment.  The former NL MVP has been out of action since May 16 due to a left knee contusion, but appears to be making good progress towards returning after close to a month on the 10-day injured list.

Bellinger played first base for Iowa, which Cubs manager David Ross said (to the Chicago Sun-Times’ Maddie Lee and other reporters) was partially due to Bellinger still having some difficulty fully extending his knee during all-out sprinting.  Even when Bellinger returns to the Cubs lineup, Ross left the door open for the outfielder to see more time at first base, noting that “[Mike] Tauchman’s swinging the bat really well and held down center field pretty well.  So [we’re] just trying to find the best lineup whenever Belli gets back.”

First base isn’t at all an unfamiliar position for Bellinger, as he has 262 career appearances as a first baseman during his seven MLB seasons.  However, he made only four appearances at first base in 2021 and none at all in 2022.  Bellinger’s injuries and struggles late in his stint with the Dodgers obviously factored into this decreased usage, not to mention the fact that Freddie Freeman took over full-time first base duty in 2022.

But, using Bellinger at first base was also something of a waste of a strong outfield glove, as Bellinger won a Gold Glove and Fielding Bible Award for his right field work in 2019, and has been an above-average defender in center field.  This glovework and strong baserunning helped Bellinger continue to earn playing time in Los Angeles even amidst his two-year funk at the plate in 2021-22.

The Dodgers opted to non-tender Bellinger this past offseason, and the Cubs inked him to a one-year deal worth $17.5MM in guaranteed money.  That includes a $5MM buyout of a $25MM mutual option, but it would seem quite unlikely that both sides would choose to exercise their option, as Bellinger was prioritizing one-year contract offers in order to return to the open market next winter with a better platform season on his resume.

Chicago’s bet on a Bellinger rebound has to some extent paid off, as prior to the month-long IL stint, Bellinger hit .271/.337/.493 with seven homers in his first 163 PA in a Cubs uniform.  The sample size is still too small to draw an overall conclusion about a bounce-back, however, and Bellinger did have only a .512 OPS in the 49 PA prior to his IL placement, so some regression might have already been at play.

There hasn’t been any indication that Bellinger’s knee problem could prevent him from returning to the outfield altogether, so the first base usage might indeed be just the Cubs’ way of getting him onto the field a bit earlier and start ramping up for his eventual return to the Major League roster.  Tauchman has also been solid (.274/.403/.323 in 78 PA) for the Cubs since his minor league contract was selected on the same day as Bellinger’s IL placement.

In the bigger picture, the 29-37 Cubs aren’t too far out of the picture in the weak NL Central, but the team might again be looking at being sellers at the trade deadline.  A 32-year-old journeyman like Tauchman probably isn’t in the Cubs’ long-term plans, so Tauchman in center field might be a preview of what Chicago’s post-deadline outfield could look like if Bellinger is dealt elsewhere.

Assuming Bellinger returns healthy and keeps hitting, he’ll be a very interesting trade chip for the Cubs to offer at the deadline, and there’s bound to be plenty of interest given how many teams explored signing Bellinger last winter.  Bellinger as a center fielder naturally has a lot more value than Bellinger as a first baseman, yet if sprinting continues to be any kind of an issue, first base is at least a fall-back position that allows him to contribute in some capacity.

Cubs Select Anthony Kay

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The Cubs have announced to reporters, including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, that they have selected the contract of left-hander Anthony Kay. Right-hander Nick Burdi was transferred to the 60-day injured list to open a spot on the 40-man roster while righty Jeremiah Estrada was optioned to open a spot on the active roster. Earlier today, the club also placed lefty Brandon Hughes on the 15-day injured list due to left knee inflammation while recalling infielder Miles Mastrobuoni in a corresponding move, with Jordan Bastian of MLB.com among those to relay those moves.

Kay, 28, came to the Cubs in December when they claimed him off waivers from the Blue Jays. They put him back on waivers about a month later but were able to get him through, keeping him in the organization. He’s spent the year in Triple-A so far, tossing 28 innings over 23 appearances. He has a 4.50 ERA, 27.4% strikeout rate, 12.8% walk rate and 54.4% ground ball rate.

Prior to joining the Cubs, Kay got some big league experience with the Jays. From 2019 to 2022, he got into 28 games and logged 70 2/3 innings with a 5.48 ERA. He struck out a solid 23.5% of opponents and got grounders at a 44.4% rate but walked 11.6% of batters faced.

The Cubs had been operating for a while with Hughes as their only left-handed reliever. Now that this knee inflammation will put him out of action for a while, Kay will get another shot in the big leagues as the team’s lone southpaw in the bullpen. He has one option year remaining and could be sent back to Iowa at some point while still holding onto his spot on the 40-man. He has between one and two years of service time and could be cheaply retained for future seasons if he does indeed hang onto that spot.

As for Burdi, he had his contract selected in the middle of May but then went on the injured list May 24 due to appendicitis. He’ll now be ineligible to return until 60 days from that initial IL placement, or late July.

MLBTR Poll: Will Lack Of Extension Interest From Cubs Lead To Marcus Stroman Trade?

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A little over six weeks from the trade deadline, contending clubs are beginning to identify target areas for midseason upgrades. Pitching is always in demand in the middle of the summer. D-Backs’ GM Mike Hazen has already gone on record about his desire to upgrade the staff; virtually every playoff contender surely feels they could use another arm or two.

On the rotation front, few candidates stand out more than Cubs’ righty Marcus Stroman. The sinkerballer has a $21MM player option for next season. Given his current trajectory, re-testing free agency seems the likeliest course of action. Stroman is pitching well enough he’s on pace to handily top a one-year, $21MM contract as a free agent. He’s angled publicly for an extension that’d take the opt-out off the table, though recent comments from the player cast doubt on that possibility.

Over the weekend, Stroman tweeted the Cubs currently “(weren’t) interested in exploring” an extension despite multiple attempts from his camp at Roc Nation Sports to initiate talks. He followed up in a chat with Patrick Mooney of the Athletic, saying “there’s been nothing from (the Cubs’) side. No offers, no talks, really, at all.” While there were reports that preliminary conversations had taken place during Spring Training, those evidently haven’t progressed. Stroman made clear the lack of negotiations haven’t resulted in any animosity towards the organization and stated he’s still hopeful talks will get off the ground.

“Yeah, I have no problem with them. There’s no problem. It’s just, like I said, there’s been no offer. There’s been no extension talks,” he told Mooney. “My agent and I have been very open, pretty much multiple times a month, saying, ‘Hey, let’s sit down. Let’s talk. Let’s get something done.’ There’s been nothing from their point (of view). … Yeah, I would truly love to stay a Cub. You never know how it’s going to play out. I’m also very aware of that, too. That tweet wasn’t like a shot.”

The situation has some parallels with last summer’s Willson Contreras saga. Contreras had angled publicly for an extension for months but the Cubs never seemed keen on getting a long-term deal done. Chicago wound up holding onto the catcher beyond the trade deadline but allowed him to depart in free agency, recouping a compensatory draft choice once Contreras declined a qualifying offer.

Of course, the team isn’t obligated to pursue an extension simply because the player is seeking one. Chicago wasn’t alone in having questions about Contreras’ defense. There’d similarly be risk in a long-term investment for a pitcher who recently turned 32. One can make a reasonable case for the Cubs preferring to go in different directions in both instances.

Yet the lack of extension talks raises real questions about whether Stroman will be donning a Cub uniform in August. Few viable rotation trade candidates are having as productive a season. Over 14 starts, Stroman has pitched to a 2.42 ERA across 85 2/3 innings. His 21.7% strikeout rate is narrowly a career high and almost exactly league average for a starting pitcher. Average swing-and-miss is more than enough for Stroman, who’s one of the sport’s premier ground-ball specialists at his best.

This season, the 5’7″ hurler has kept the ball on the ground 61% of the time opponents have put it in play. That’s back in line with the peak numbers he posted as an upper mid-rotation arm for the Blue Jays. Stroman’s grounder rate had dipped to a “merely” very good 50-54% range between 2019-22. It has been elite again this year, tops among the 102 starting pitchers who’ve tallied at least 50 innings.

Stroman’s arsenal isn’t much different than it was in prior seasons. He’s averaging a career-low 91.3 MPH on his sinker, while the velocity on his breaking ball and cutter aren’t much changed. He’s more consistently locating at the bottom of or below the strike zone than he had over the past few seasons, however. Hitters are having a tough time elevating the ball, diminishing the amount of damage they can do. No starter has allowed a lower slugging percentage than Stroman’s .277 mark.

Even in the absence of eye-popping whiff rates, Stroman would be an upgrade for any contender seeking starting pitching help. He’s at least better than any team’s back-of-the-rotation options and would be a strong candidate for a postseason start elsewhere.

A playoff appearance looks unlikely to come with the Cubs this year. Chicago enters play Monday carrying a 28-37 record. The dismal NL Central picture leaves them within shouting distance — they’re six and a half games behind the first-place Pirates — but they’ve dropped 24 of 38 since the start of May. They haven’t looked much better than last year’s 74-88 club. Projections from FanGraphs, Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus place their playoff chances between 8% and 14%. The season isn’t over, but the Cubs are longshot contenders as things stand.

The Chicago front office isn’t going to pull the plug yet. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer said last week the team was still uncertain about its deadline direction, no surprise with a month and a half of intervening games to potentially crystalize their position (link via Maddie Lee of the Chicago Sun-Times). Selling looks likelier than buying barring a surge from the team in the next few months.

If the Cubs are reluctant to engage in extension discussions with Stroman, there’s little reason not to put him on the trade market if they fall out of contention. Whether the Cubs made the right call in holding onto Contreras last summer is debatable, but they at least weren’t left empty-handed when he departed. The QO ensured they’d receive a compensatory pick, which landed 68th overall in the upcoming amateur draft.

That fallback isn’t available in Stroman’s case. The collective bargaining agreement prohibits players from receiving multiple qualifying offers in their careers. Stroman received and accepted the QO from the Mets over the 2020-21 offseason. That prevents the Cubs from making one. If Stroman tests free agency and signs elsewhere, Chicago wouldn’t get any compensation.

The player option complicates his trade status somewhat. Teams considering a Stroman deal would have to anticipate him declining and going to the open market. He’s not a true rental, though, as the option looms as a potential downside for clubs in the event his production collapses or he gets injured down the stretch. That’ll diminish the return the Cubs could’ve expected were Stroman simply in the final year of his contract. Still, there should be plenty of interest from contenders given his current form and a potentially lackluster trade market.

There aren’t many slam-dunk rotation trade candidates. The likes of Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty could wind up being available. Perhaps things eventually become dire enough for the Phillies or Padres to entertain moving Aaron Nola or Blake Snell, respectively. Eduardo Rodriguez has a tougher version of the Stroman option issue; the Detroit southpaw is guaranteed three years and $49MM beyond this season but can opt out at the end of the year. Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease and Shane Bieber are all controllable beyond 2023.

Stroman may wind up being one of the summer’s biggest names to watch. Unless the Cubs change course — either by playing well enough to get back into the postseason mix or showing a genuine interest in an extension — he figures to find his name in plenty of rumors during deadline season.

What does the MLBTR readership anticipate happening? Will Stroman still be a Cub two months from now?

(poll link for app users)

Will The Cubs Trade Marcus Stroman This Summer?
Yes. 72.44% (2,324 votes)
No; they'll play out the season and reevaluate next winter. 15.24% (489 votes)
No; eventually they'll talk extension. 12.31% (395 votes)
Total Votes: 3,208

 

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

NL Central Notes: Stroman, Taylor, Reds

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Starting pitcher Marcus Stroman has repeatedly stressed his desire to sign a long-term extension with the Cubs, even as he could reach free agency after this season on the heels of a career year. Stroman, who can opt-out of the final one year and $21MM left on his contract at season’s end, has posted a sensational 2.42 ERA (184 ERA+) through 14 starts with a 21.7% strikeout rate that would be the best of his career over a full season while also managing a fantastic 61% groundball rate. Those fantastic numbers figure to make Stroman a worthy addition to any rotation, but Chicago seems uninterested in getting a deal done at the moment. As Stroman himself relayed on Twitter that both he and his agent have made “multiple attempts” to engage the club’s front office in extension negotiations, but the Cubs were uninterested in exploring a deal for the time being.

In a conversation with The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney, Stroman elaborated further on the situation, telling Mooney that “We’ve been going to the front office from spring training, very open that I want to be here. We’ve continued those thoughts. Up until now, there’s been nothing from their side. No offers, no talks, really, at all.” Stroman goes on to make clear that there isn’t tension between him and the front office, despite the fact that his camp’s desire for negotiations having been largely rebuffed to this point.

It’s possible that the club’s hesitance has to do with their position in the standings. The club is 28-36, good for fourth place in the NL Central and 5.5 games out of a playoff spot. While their weak division does provide them some semblance of hope for contention, it’s nonetheless easy to imagine the Cubs selling for the third straight deadline. If they opted to go down that path, Stroman would likely be their most attractive trade piece. In fact, Andrew Baggarly of The Athletic recently identified Stroman as an ideal fit for the Giants as trade season approaches, while noting that San Francisco actually finished second in free agent bidding for Stroman’s services when he signed his current three-year, $71MM deal with Chicago prior to the 2022 campaign.

More from around the NL Central…

  • Brewers outfielder Tyrone Taylor is set to receive a cortisone shot in his right elbow, manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel.) Counsell noted that the injection comes after Taylor received multiple opinions on the elbow sprain that’s kept him on the shelf for the past two weeks. After posting a 106 wRC+ in 250 career games headed into the 2023 campaign, it’s been a brutal season for Taylor, who has slashed just .160/.179/.240 (8 wRC+) while being limited to just 27 games due to the ongoing elbow issues. With Taylor on the shelf, the club has Blake Perkins backing up an outfield trio of Christian Yelich, Joey Wiemer, and Brian Anderson.
  • The Reds are still without their usual starting outfield, even after activating center fielder TJ Friedl from the 10-day injured list yesterrday, as left fielder Jake Fraley was placed on the shelf with a right wrist contusion in a corresponding move. While Friedl is enjoying a career season, with a .315/.365/.479 slash line in 43 games this year, the club is sure to miss the contributions of Fraley nonetheless, who has posted a wRC+ of 114 in 123 games since joining the club prior to the 2022 season. With Fraley on the shelf, the Reds figure to use the likes of Stuart Fairchild and Will Benson in the outfield corners.

Missteps In Minor Trades Hurting The Cubs In 2023

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After ending their century-long championship drought in 2016, the Cubs struggled to maintain that level of competitiveness despite their talented roster, resulting in a massive sell-off at the 2021 trade deadline that is currently yielding promising results as the club works its way back towards contention. Though the club added quality players like Marcus Stroman, Seiya Suzuki, and Yan Gomes ahead of the 2022 season, it was nonetheless a clear rebuilding year for the Cubs as they looked to turn the page on the previous core and begin to build around younger players like Nico Hoerner and Justin Steele.

After a surprisingly strong finish to the 2022 campaign where the club posted a 40-31 record over the season’s final ten weeks, the Cubs looked to jump-start their return to contention with a significant financial outlay over the offseason. While the club downgraded at catcher by swapping out three-time All Star Willson Contreras for Tucker Barnhart, the club shored up the rotation with multiyear deals for Jameson Taillon and Drew Smyly and plugged a hole in center field by landing Cody Bellinger on a one-year deal.

Most importantly, the Cubs acquired a new face of the franchise by offering Dansby Swanson a seven-year deal worth $177MM. Early in the season, the club also extended both Nico Hoerner and Ian Happ through the end of the 2026 season, a further sign the team is committed to its current core of Swanson, Hoerner, Happ, Suzuki, and Steele. Unfortunately for Cubs fans, those deals have done little to pull the Cubs back into contention, as the team sports a 27-36 record as they sit 6.5 games out of a playoff spot while looking up at the Pirates, Brewers, and Reds in a weak NL Central division.

Still, the club has struggled to stay in the race, thanks in part to the struggles of many of those signings. Taillon has struggled through injuries and ineffectiveness in ten starts this season, Barnhart sports an OPS of just .433 and appears to have been supplanted by Miguel Amaya as Gomes’s primary backup, and the club’s offseason bullpen signings of Brad Boxberger and Michael Fulmer have combined for a whopping 27 earned runs in 41 innings of work.

That isn’t to say the moves president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer and his front office made this past offseason were all mistakes; in fact, many of them have proven savvy in the early going. Swanson leads the quarter of star shortstops who hit free agency over the offseason in terms of both wRC+ and fWAR this season despite signing the smallest contract of the group, Bellinger has bounced back from two difficult seasons in LA to post above-average offensive numbers for the Cubs while Smyly has proven to be a stabilizing force in the club’s rotation with a 3.27 ERA (136 ERA+) in 13 starts for the Cubs this season.

The club has faced particularly significant issues on offense, with 267 runs scored in 2023, a figure that places them tied with the Padres for fourth-worst in the NL. With Bellinger, Happ, Suzuki, and Mike Tauchman posting strong numbers in the outfield while Swanson and Hoerner have been largely successful up the middle, the biggest culprits in the club’s lack of offense are the infield corners and the DH slot. The Cubs rank 22nd in the majors in terms of wRC+ at DH, 27th at third base, and 29th at first base.

With three key spots most lineups rely on to generate offense doing so at a well below-average rate, it’s no wonder the Cubs have frustrated with offensive struggles despite significant individual successes in 2023. To make matters worse, the club shipped out a pair of players in recent years who have proven to be major assets for their current clubs and would have surely shored up Chicago’s offense had they stuck on the roster.

Prior to the 2022 campaign, the Cubs traded right-handed slugger Harold Ramirez to the Rays for minor league infielder Esteban Quiroz just months after acquiring Ramirez from Cleveland. This move paved the way for the club to roster the likes of Michael Hermosillo and Clint Frazier as the 2022 season began, though both players struggled mightily, posting wRC+ figures of 16 and 87 during their time with the Cubs, respectively. Since joining the Rays, meanwhile, Ramirez has blossomed into a phenomenal slugger, with a .298/.342/.436 slash line (125 wRC+) in 170 games while playing first base, DH, and the outfield corners.

Had the Cubs held onto Ramirez, it seems likely they wouldn’t have felt the need to sign Mancini to fill a similar role this past offseason, opening up resources that could have been used to address a bullpen that ranks bottom four in the NL with a 4.53 ERA while improving significantly on Mancini’s own 83 wRC+ in 51 games this season.

As for third base, the Cubs entered spring training this season with a trio of infielders in consideration for two Opening Day roster spots: Nick Madrigal, Miles Mastrobuoni, and Zach McKinstry. Ultimately, McKinstry was shipped to Detroit in exchange for minor league reliever Carlos Guzman. That decision has proved to be another significant mistake, as Madrigal and Mastrobuoni have combined for -0.4 fWAR for the Cubs this season, with Madrigal’s 60 wRC+ in 35 games leading the duo offensively.

McKinstry, meanwhile, has gone on to post a breakout season for the Tigers. While playing second base, third base, shortstop, and both outfield corners, the 28-year-old utility player has posted a solid .256/.360/.388 slash line in 54 games that’s good for a wRC+ of 115. Had McKinstry remained with the Cubs, he could have shored up third base alongside Patrick Wisdom, who has struggled to a .149/.253/.310 slash line since the beginning of May, while also filling in elsewhere around the diamond during stints on the injured list for regulars like Suzuki and Hoerner.

In addition to the assistance both Ramirez and McKinstry could have provided the Cubs this season, each is controllable beyond the current campaign. The duo is expected to hit free agency after the 2025 and 2027 seasons, respectively, meaning both could have be key pieces in the lineup or on the bench with Chicago for years to come.

Many of the bigger moves the Cubs have made in recent years, such as the signings of Swanson, Stroman, and Suzuki, have worked out well to this point. Despite those successes, however, missteps regarding Ramirez and McKinstry have highlighted the importance of making the right moves at the margins when attempting to return to contention. Unless Wisdom, Christopher Morel, Trey Mancini, and Matt Mervis can collectively provide the internal improvements necessary at the infield corners to spark the offense going forward, the Cubs figure to enter the 2023-24 offseason with improving at the infield corners at the top of their to-do list.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #6: The Cubs’ Fire Sale

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades of rental players to provide a loose guideline of what sort of returns fans can expect with their teams’ current rental players. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017-21, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’ve already published some honorable mentions as well as entries No. 10, No. 9, No. 8 and No. 7. If you disagree with our rankings, let us know! It’s all part of the subjective fun! Onto No. 6…

The 2021 season marked a turning point in Cubs franchise history. Half a decade had elapsed since the team’s curse-breaking 2016 World Series run. The “dynasty” chatter that followed that seven-game victory over Cleveland never really manifested into reality. Chicago was a perennial contender, but that vaunted Cubs core never reached the World Series again and only won one game beyond the National League Division Series before the group was suddenly nearing the end of its time together.

Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras, Kyle Schwarber, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Kyle Hendricks was a sensational group of talent around which to build, but Hendricks was the only one of the bunch to put pen to paper on an extension. The group continued inching closer to free agency, and as Lester and Arrieta declined in their latter years in Chicago, some of the shine wore off. The Cubs were a good team, but year after year, the season ended with now-former president of baseball operations Theo Epstein making similar comments about how the “offense broke” or something else went wrong.

Following a 2020 season that saw the Cubs swept out of a three-game Wild Card series against the Marlins in the expanded playoff format, Epstein stepped down from his role as president and turned baseball autonomy over to Jed Hoyer. It was baptism by fire in every sense of the cliche, as Hoyer faced a series of unenviable decisions, beginning with Schwarber. Fresh off a .188/.308/.393 showing in 244 plate appearances in 2020, Schwarber was non-tendered rather than offered a raise heading into his final year of arbitration. Not four weeks later, Yu Darvish was traded to the Padres in a salary-motivated deal that has to date produced just one prospect of any note (Owen Caissie).

Decision time was only just beginning for Hoyer and his staff. The Cubs would need to determine how to proceed with the trio of Bryant, Rizzo and Baez, each of whom were slated to become free agents following the 2021 season. Prior extension talks had never resulted in a deal — though Baez was reportedly quite close to signing before baseball grinded to a halt with the Covid pandemic in 2020. Chicago made one final effort to extend Rizzo that spring, but he spurned their five-year, $70MM offer (and has since banked three years and $56MM in guaranteed money with the Yankees).

The Cubs could’ve traded any of the bunch that offseason, and Bryant’s name in particular echoed throughout the rumor mill as much as it ever had. Ultimately, all three stayed put, and thus the ensuing narratives that would dominate the 2021 Cubs season were set into motion. Would any of Bryant, Baez or Rizzo stay? Was the core finally breaking up? Was this the team’s last chance?

The lackluster offseason headlined by trading the prior season’s Cy Young runner-up should’ve answered that final question on its own, but the Cubs surprised plenty of onlookers by not only fielding a competitive team but vying for first place in the division for much of the first few months. As late into the season as June 24, the Cubs were eight games over .500 and in a first-place tie for the NL Central lead with the Brewers.

A subsequent 11-game losing streak — the first of two 11-game losing streaks for that year’s Cubs — removed all doubt, however. By July 8, the Cubs were below .500, and the surging Brewers had remained hot. They held a 9.5-game lead over the second-place Reds, with Chicago and St. Louis tied for third in the division. The fire sale was coming, and virtually everyone knew it.

Rizzo was the first to go. A July 29 deal sent him to the Yankees in exchange for 19-year-old outfielder Kevin Alcantara and 24-year-old righty Alexander Vizcaino. A day later, Baez was following Rizzo out of Wrigley. Traded alongside right-hander Trevor Williams, Baez went to the Mets in exchange for 19-year-old outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong. For the next 24 hours, there were serious questions about whether a trade for Bryant would ultimately come together, but in a buzzer-beating deal, Bryant was shipped to the Giants in exchange for 21-year-old outfielder Alexander Canario and 24-year-old righty Caleb Kilian.

You can perhaps call the inclusion of Baez cheating a little bit for the purposes of this series, because Williams’ inclusion meant it wasn’t *technically* a rental. The Mets acquired two months of control over Baez and a year-plus of Williams in this swap. That extra year of control over Williams surely factored into the decision to part with Crow-Armstrong to an extent, but this was a trade about acquiring Baez first and foremost. Baez caught fire down the stretch for the Mets, too, posting a huge .299/.371/.515 slash in 186 plate appearances. The Mets still missed postseason, however, and the trade surely stings when looking at what’s become of the player they surrendered.

Fast forward less than two years, and “PCA” is regarded as one of the sport’s top outfield prospects. He’s ranked within the top-30 overall prospects in the sport on the most recent lists Baseball America, MLB.com, FanGraphs and Keith Law of The Athletic. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel has the “low” ranking on Crow-Armstrong… at No. 39 in the game. Regarded as plus-plus defender in center field with plus speed, Crow-Armstrong has opened the season with a .278/.345/.513 showing in Double-A (131 wRC+). He’s knocked eight homers, seven doubles and three of triples while going 13-for-17 in steals.

Obviously, the Cubs haven’t yet gotten any big league value out of Crow-Armstrong, but it’s rare for a team to acquire a prospect in exchange for a rental and see him almost immediately ascend to the point that he’s regarded as one of the top 15 to 30 prospects in all of baseball. If the Cubs wanted to do so — they surely don’t, to be clear — they could use Crow-Armstrong as a headline piece to acquire just about any controllable veteran who hits the market this summer or next offseason. The likelier path for PCA is that he’ll be given every opportunity to become a franchise center fielder for a still-retooling Cubs club.

There’s no nitpicking with the other two swaps in this three-for-one entry. Rizzo and Bryant were shipped out as two-month mercenaries in exchange for a quartet of prospects, although Rizzo took to the Bronx quite nicely and is now locked in as a Yankee through the 2024 season. There was plenty for the Yankees to like, as Rizzo hit .249/.340/.428 (113 wRC+) down the stretch, swatting eight homers and seven postseason doubles before tacking on another dinger in that year’s Wild Card loss to the Red Sox. In parts of three seasons as a Yankee, Rizzo is a .245/.344/.468 hitter with 51 home runs.

I doubt the Yankees regret making this swap, but it’s worked out nicely for the Cubs as well. Alcantara, now 20 years old, isn’t as highly regarded as Crow-Armstrong, but he entered the season ranked No. 91 on Baseball America’s Top 100 prospect rankings. He’s dropped off that list after a slow start in High-A (.250/.281/.389), but he still sits at No. 75 at FanGraphs and is generally a very well regarded prospect.

It’s worth bearing in mind that those pedestrian High-A numbers have been posted against competition that is, on average, nearly two and a half years older than Alcantara. The towering 6’6″ toolbox is also just a season removed from a much heartier .273/.360/.451 showing in Class-A, where he was nearly two years younger than the league’s average player. He’s a ways off, but like Crow-Armstrong, Alcantara has significantly elevated his stock since that 2021 trade. If the Cubs were so inclined, he too could be a significant piece in any potential deadline trade for controllable big league help. That’s not likely to happen — granted, it’s a bit more plausible with Alcantara than with Crow-Armstrong — but Alcantara has become a reasonably high-profile prospect.

That’s not the case with the now-26-year-old Vizcaino, though the circumstances surrounding his departure from baseball remain unclear. The Cubs placed Vizcaino on the restricted list in 2022  after he failed to report to spring training. He spent the entire year on the restricted list. The Cubs non-tendered him last offseason, and he didn’t sign with another team. Details surrounding Vizcaino’s abrupt departure from the game are basically nonexistent. The obvious hope is that he’s happy and healthy wherever he’s at, but it’s a disappointing outcome for the Cubs.

As for the third and final chapter of this deadline trio, Bryant proved an important pickup for the Giants. True, San Francisco would’ve made the postseason regardless, evidenced by their MLB-best 107 wins that season, but they edged out the division-rival Dodgers for that NL West crown by a margin of just one game. Bryant’s solid .262/.344/.444 slash may not have been in line with his peak form, but he contributed a meaningful presence in the Giants’ lineup down the stretch. They’d go on to fall to those same Dodgers in the National League Division Series, but not through any fault of Bryant’s. He delivered an 8-for-17 performance in the NLDS, adding a homer and a walk with only three strikeouts in 18 total trips to the plate.

Unlike with the other two trades, Cubs fans have at least gotten a look at one element of this return, although the now-26-year-old Kilian’s big league work to date hasn’t been pretty. The 6’4″ righty is still widely regarded as one of the organization’s best pitching prospects, but he’s been tagged for 20 earned runs in 14 2/3 innings through a pair of very limited auditions. He’s pitched 148 Triple-A innings as a starter over the past two seasons, logging a 4.32 ERA with a 24.2% strikeout rate against an 11.1% walk rate.

Command wasn’t an issue for him prior to reaching Triple-A, but he struggled with walks last year. It’s encouraging that he’s walked just 6.8% of his opponents over his past seven Triple-A starts, pitching to a 3.09 ERA along the way, but Kilian has also plunked six hitters in that time so he’s not out of the woods with his shaky location just yet. He’s in the mix to come up and make some starts this year still, and depending on how he fares, Kilian could be a candidate for a rotation spot either later this season or in 2024.

As for Canario, he finished second among all minor leaguers with 37 home runs in 2022 and hit .252/.343/.556 across High-A, Double-A and Triple-A. He added 23 steals (in 26 tries) and walked at an 11% clip, though his 27.5% strikeout rate was more concerning. Baseball America calls him a potential low-average slugger with plenty of walks, above-average speed and above-average defense in right field. He hasn’t yet gotten a chance to build on last year’s breakout, as he dislocated his shoulder while playing in the Dominican Winter League.

We’re just shy of two years removed from the Cubs’ deadline fire sale, and while it’s still early to grade the overall strength of their return, things are looking promising. To trade three rental players and come away with a pair of top-100 prospects — including one who’s widely ranked in the top 25 — as well as a near-MLB starting pitcher and a strikeout-prone but prodigious slugging outfielder with power, speed and defensive upside is objectively impressive.

On the one hand, it’s a testament to the caliber of the players the Cubs were trading, but not all trades of star players result in this type of return. The Orioles have still barely gotten anything from the Manny Machado trade nearly five years after its completion. The Rangers’ trade of Darvish to the Dodgers netted them one immediate top prospect, but two years after the deal that prospect (Willie Calhoun) was already looking like a questionable big leaguer.

The tail-end of the development phase for the prospects acquired here — particularly Crow-Armstrong — will define this series of trades. But four of the five prospects acquired in this slate of trades have enhanced their stock since joining the Cubs, who now have a handful of near-MLB-ready talent and/or trade chips to show for parting with a trio of popular veterans. The 2021 trade deadline was a dark few days for Cubs fans, but there’s a good chance it’ll wind up leading to some brighter times ahead.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History, #7: Tigers Land A Closer For Castellanos

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With the trade deadline now less than two months away, we at MLBTR are setting our sights backwards for a bit to highlight past trades. With an arbitrary cutoff point of 2017, we’re counting down the top 10 returns that a team got when selling a rental player. We’re on to #7 in our series, looking back four years to a last-minute 2019 swap.

The Cubs entered deadline season nearing the end of their contention window. Chicago had snapped their World Series drought three years prior. While the Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Báez, Willson Contreras and Kyle Hendricks core never returned to the Fall Classic and fell short of dynastic expectations some observers had heaped on them, Chicago remained a good club. They went to the NL Championship Series in 2017 and made the playoffs again the following season, losing to the Rockies in the Wild Card game.

Nicholas Castellanos

Chicago’s then-Theo Epstein led front office set out to bolster the roster further in hopes of securing a fifth straight playoff berth. They sat at 56-50 heading into play on July 31, a game back of the Cardinals in the NL Central. The Cubs looked to inject some life into an offense that had ranked 14th in run scoring to that point. The addition: corner outfielder Nick Castellanos in a swap sending prospects Alex Lange and Paul Richan to the Tigers.

Castellanos was amidst a relative down season at the time of the trade. While he’d hit .298/.354/.500 the prior year, the right-handed hitter was carrying a .273/.328/.462 line midway through a ’19 campaign that had seen a home run explosion around the league. The Cubs looked past that comparatively slow start.

In return, they dealt a pair of fairly recent high draft choices to a Detroit club that was midway through a full-scale rebuild and en route to one of the worst seasons in history (47-114). Lange had been the 30th overall pick in 2017 after helping LSU to the College World Series finals. Richan was a second round draftee the next season out of the University of San Diego. Lange had posted middling minor league numbers up through Double-A; Richan had a solid but not overwhelming High-A performance.

It was a bit of a buy-low situation for the Detroit front office. Both pitchers had seen their prospect stock hit a down ebb. The Tigers immediately moved Lange from the rotation to the bullpen, hoping that a simplified repertoire and shorter stints would mitigate longstanding questions about his delivery and command. Detroit surely believed he’d be a viable MLB reliever but probably didn’t anticipate this level of dominance.

Lange debuted in 2021 and posted a 4.04 ERA in 35 2/3 middle relief innings. He took his game to a new level last season, significantly upping his swing-and-miss to force his way into higher-leverage spots. Lange tossed 63 1/3 frames of 3.41 ERA ball while punching out more than 30% of opposing hitters. An absurd 19% swinging strike rate — bettered only by Edwin Díaz and Andrés Muñoz among qualified relievers — suggested the potential to push the strikeouts even further. Paired with an absurd 55.6% ground-ball rate, Lange demonstrated an ultra-rare combination of whiffs and unthreatening contact. He was one of just five relievers (min. 30 innings) to record both a strikeout rate above 30% and a grounder percentage north of 55%.

In his second full MLB campaign, Lange has indeed upped the strikeouts. Entering play Thursday, he’s punched out 35% of batters faced. Lange carries a 2.55 ERA in 24 2/3 innings and been entrusted with the ninth inning by manager A.J. Hinch. The 27-year-old has saved 10 of 11 opportunities. He was blown up for four runs in a third of an inning by the White Sox in his most recent appearance, but Lange has made 17 scoreless outings and recorded multiple strikeouts on 14 occasions.

Lange’s control still comes and goes. He’s walked at least 9.9% of opponents in all three of his big league campaigns. That includes a lofty 13% walk percentage thus far in 2023. Yet he’s been so dominant at his best that he’s able to navigate the free passes. Since the start of the 2022 campaign, opponents are hitting .190/.298/.292 in 371 trips to the plate.

The Tigers didn’t get anything out of Richan. He topped out at Double-A and was released last September. Hitting to the extent they have on Lange has more than made up for Richan stalling out from Detroit’s perspective. They landed a high-leverage reliever who has shown impact talent. If Lange dials in his control, he could be one of the three to five best late-game arms in the sport. Even if he’s “only” an All-Star caliber hurler, that’s a great pull for a player who was two months from free agency. The Tigers forfeited the chance to recoup a draft pick via the qualifying offer for Castellanos’ departure but Lange has been far better than the expected value of a choice landing at the end of the first round.

Lange is under club control through the 2027 campaign. He entered this season with one year and 112 days of service time, so he’ll head into next offseason at 2.112 service years. That could leave him just shy of the cutoff for early arbitration as a Super Two player, which has landed between 2.115 and 2.134 years over the past five winters. Even if Lange does get to arbitration next season, four years of arb control for a pitcher of his caliber is a massive asset.

The Tigers’ rebuild has stagnated, leading to a front office shakeup last summer. While Detroit is only 3 1/2 games out in the AL Central right now, they’re seven games under .500 and have been outscored by 70 runs. This isn’t a likely playoff contender even in the sport’s worst division. As a result, other clubs have called on Detroit’s relievers (Lange included) about a potential deadline deal.

With their extended control window, there’s no pressure on president of baseball operations Scott Harris and his staff to pull the trigger. They dealt shorter-term relievers like Joe Jiménez and Gregory Soto over the winter but moving Lange would be at another level of boldness. The more probable outcome is that Lange will stick around into next season, hopefully anchoring a bullpen for the next competitive Detroit club.

From the Cubs’ perspective, the trade had mixed results. Had they anticipated Lange being this good, they wouldn’t have made him available for a rental. Castellanos validated their optimism, though, rebounding from his middle-of-the-road start with a torrid stretch. He slashed .321/.356/.646 with an absurd 16 home runs in 51 games. Castellanos earned a $64MM guarantee from the Reds the ensuing offseason. His Cincinnati deal afforded a post-2021 opt-out clause which he leveraged into a $100MM contract from Philadelphia on the heels of another excellent season.

Even with Castellanos hitting at a top 20 level down the stretch, the Cubs never kicked into another gear. They’d go 27-28 from August onward. Chicago ended third in the division and five games behind the Brewers for the last postseason spot. They returned to the playoffs during the abbreviated 2020 campaign but were swept in the first round by the Marlins. Chicago hasn’t gotten back to the postseason since and is going on six years dating back to their last playoff win.

Previous installments: honorable mentions, Drew Smith/Lucas Duda (#10), Steve Pearce/Santiago Espinal (#9), Lane Thomas/Jon Lester (#8)

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

MLBTR Trade Rumors Podcast: Elly De La Cruz, Manoah’s Demotion and Surgery for DeGrom

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Episode 10 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • If Kevin Kiermaier can stay healthy and remain productive, what kind of contract is he looking at in free agency? (22:20)
  • Could Corbin Burnes realistically be traded by the deadline? If so, what teams would likely make a push for him? (26:50)
  • What could the Cubs do with Marcus Stroman? (30:45)

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Wide-Open NL Wild Card Race, Returning Pitchers and Cast-Off Veterans – listen here
  • The Mets are turning things around, and how serious are the Mariners, Marlins and Diamondbacks? – listen here
  • The Cardinals’ U-Turn on Willson Contreras, Mitch Keller’s breakout, and the state of the Padres – listen here

Best Deadline Rental Returns In Recent History: Honorable Mentions

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The calendar has flipped to June, and more than one-third of the season is in the rearview mirror. While there’s still plenty of time for the standings to change in dramatic fashion — just ask the 2022 Phillies or 2019 Nationals — the “early” portion of the season is a bit behind us. As the weather heats up and playoff pictures begin to take a more definitive shape, the baseball world inherently turns its focus to a few things: the looming All-Star Game, the upcoming amateur draft and, of course, the annual trade deadline.

June trades of note are admittedly rare — particularly over the past ten years or so — but we’re fast approaching the portion of the season where trade needs, potential trade candidates and many other deadline-adjacent minutiae begin to crystallize. It’s common for fans of rebuilding and/or underperforming clubs to begin to wonder just what sort of returns their favorite team might be able to eke out for veteran players with dwindling club control.

Some of the most common questions we’re asked in chats at MLBTR these days center around what a team might be able to get for a certain player — rentals in particular. Names like Lucas Giolito, Cody Bellinger, Jordan Montgomery and Jeimer Candelario were just a few readers asked me about this past week. To be clear, it’s not a given that all or even any of those specific names will change hands in two months’ time (or sooner), but it’s obviously a hot topic that’s on people’s minds.

As such, it only seemed natural to take a look back through recent history and look at some high-profile trades of rental players and see which panned out the best for the team selling off the veteran player in question. Over the next couple weeks, we’ll roll out a look at the ten “best” returns for rental players in recent trade deadline history.

A few caveats of note! At times, it can take three, four, five years or even longer for a team to begin reaping the benefits from such a deal. An immediate return isn’t always apparent, particularly when you’re only selling two months of a player or players. As such, we’re not considering trades completed at last year’s deadline for our top ten, even though they could well prove excellent as soon as 2024 or 2025. It’s simply too soon to evaluate those swaps. Also, these rankings are subjective; they’re not based on a hard-and-fast WAR criteria or anything of the sort. If you think we should’ve ranked No. 7 higher and No. 4 lower, let us know. It’s all part of the fun.

While I said we’re omitting last year’s deadline from our top ten, that doesn’t mean we’ll completely ignore the results of the 2022 deadline. To kick off the series, here’s a quick look at three honorable mentions from 2017-21 as well as a handful of 2022 trades that will be worth keeping an eye on in the years to come. Present-day impact of these 2022 trades has either been minimal or nonexistent, but each brought the “selling” team some nearly MLB-ready help that could be impactful as soon as this season. These honorable mentions and 2022 swaps aren’t ranked — they’re just sorted alphabetically by the last name of the player who was traded.

Let’s begin!

Honorable Mentions

Orioles acquire RHPs Dillon Tate, Cody Carroll and LHP Josh Rogers from the Yankees in exchange for LHP Zack Britton (7/24/18)

Two-thirds of this return for Baltimore wound up making little to no impact, but the acquisition of Tate, a former No. 4 overall draft pick, wound up paying dividends. Though Tate isn’t the rotation piece the Rangers hoped for when drafting him or the Yankees envisioned when acquiring him for Carlos Beltran, he’s emerged as a quality setup man at Camden Yards. The O’s gave Tate just ten starts after the trade before moving him to the bullpen, and while his rookie effort in 2019 left plenty to be desired, he’s since pitched quite well.

Dating back to 2020, Tate has a 3.65 ERA in 158 innings of relief, adding 25 holds and eight saves along the way. Tate’s 19.1% strikeout rate is below-average, but his 6.8% walk rate is better than average and his 57.9% grounder rate is outstanding. In 2022, he pitched to a pristine 3.05 ERA through 73 2/3 frames, tallying five of those saves and 16 of those holds. A forearm strain has kept Tate out of action this year, however.

Tate isn’t peak Britton and likely never will be, but trading two months of an elite reliever and winding up with six years of club control over an above-average reliever isn’t a bad outcome for Baltimore. As for the Yankees, they got the tail end of Britton’s prime. He notched a 2.88 ERA in 25 innings down the stretch and re-signed on a three-year deal with a fourth year option (that had to be exercised after the contract’s second season to prevent a Britton opt-out). Britton posted a sub-2.00 ERA in both 2019 and 2020, but he pitched just 19 innings over his final two years in New York due to injuries.

Rays acquire LHP Jalen Beeks from the Red Sox in exchange for RHP Nathan Eovaldi (7/25/18)

Few could’ve predicted what an impactful trade this would end up being at the time it was made. At the time of the swap, Eovaldi was in his first season back from Tommy John surgery and had pitched 57 innings of 4.26 ERA ball for Tampa Bay. He’d long intrigued teams with his power arsenal but was inconsistent and carried a career ERA that more or less matched that season total.

Eovaldi took off in Boston, however, tossing 54 frames of 3.33 ERA ball as the Sox marched to the postseason, where he cemented his status in Red Sox lore. Eovaldi was a star that October, tossing 22 1/3 innings of 1.61 ERA ball with a 16-to-3 K/BB ratio. Those are impressive numbers on their own, but they only tell part of the tale. Eovaldi won his first two starts of the playoffs before moving to the bullpen and picking up a pair of holds. But it was Game 3 of the World Series, where Eovaldi gutted out six innings of relief in an 18-inning marathon and finished out the game, that many will remember. The Dodgers wound up winning when Eovaldi’s 97th (!) pitch out of the bullpen was deposited in the seats by Max Muncy, but he saved the Boston bullpen with six innings of one-run ball that night. The Sox went on to win the World Series in five games.

As for the Rays, they came away with a lefty who’d come up through Boston’s system as a starter but would be used in a jack-of-all-trades role in St. Petersburg. Beeks has served as a long reliever, a setup man and an opener in parts of five seasons with Tampa Bay, totaling 258 innings of 4.12 ERA ball along the way. He’s been the type of versatile arm whose value can’t be neatly encapsulated in what looks like an otherwise modest WAR total. Beeks has handled just about any role the Rays could ask, and he’s generally been effective in doing so. He’s not a star, but he’s been an important member of their pitching staff for a half decade now and is still under team control through the 2024 season.

Tigers acquire RHP Reese Olson from the Brewers in exchange for LHP Daniel Norris (7/30/21)

The 23-year-old Olson made his big league debut on Friday when he stepped into the Detroit rotation to take the spot of the injured Eduardo Rodriguez. As far as debuts go, it was nearly as good as a young pitcher could ask for. Olson carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning before being tagged for a pair of runs and departing five frames of two-run ball in the books.

Olson isn’t regarded among the sport’s top 100 prospects and isn’t even universally considered to be among the Tigers’ top 10 prospects, but he’s missed bats consistently in the upper minors and is regarded as a potential long-term rotation piece if he can improve upon the command of his fastball. Scouting reports at Baseball America, FanGraphs, The Athletic and MLB.com praise Olson’s secondary pitches, particularly his changeup, which he’s begun using effectively even in right-on-right situations.

Detroit has seen a lot of turnover in the baseball operations department since this trade, but former GM Al Avila, AGM David Chadd and others will be in line for some praise if the Tigers get a viable big leaguer in exchange for two months of the veteran Norris, who was sitting on a 5.38 ERA in 36 2/3 innings at the time of the deal. Norris had been tough on lefties, and the Brewers surely felt they could coax a higher level of performance out of him with some tweaks. That didn’t happen, however, as Norris was rocked for a 6.64 ERA in Milwaukee, walking 15 of the 63 batters he faced (23.8%) and serving up five homers in 20 1/3 frames (2.2 HR/9).

2022 Deadline Swaps to Watch

Pirates acquire RHP Johan Oviedo, INF Malcom Nunez from the Cardinals in exchange for LHP Jose Quintana, RHP Chris Stratton (8/2/22)

Yes, technically this isn’t a pure rental. Stratton had an additional year of club control, and that surely factored into the return. But he was also sitting on a 5.09 ERA at the time of the deal, and this was largely a trade centered around getting Quintana to land some much-needed rotation help in St. Louis.

The Cardinals got just what they wanted out of this deal — and then some. Quintana stepped into the rotation and not only solidified the staff but pitched to a brilliant 2.01 ERA in 62 2/3 frames down the stretch. The lefty was so excellent that St. Louis wound up tabbing him as the Game 1 starter in last year’s National League Division Series. Quintana had signed a one-year, $2MM deal in the offseason and was acquired as a back-end starter but pitched like an ace. The script doesn’t get much better for the acquiring team.

That said, this trade also has the makings of a winner for Pittsburgh. The 25-year-old Oviedo has been inconsistent but shown flashes of brilliance with the Bucs. He’s throwing fewer fastballs and more breaking pitches — particularly more curveballs, which has been an extremely effective offering for him through 11 starts. Oviedo’s 4.50 ERA in 58 innings looks pretty pedestrian, but he’s upped his ground-ball rate and improved his velocity even in a rotation role. He’s allowed one or zero runs in six of his 11 starts this year. The Pirates can control Oviedo for four more years beyond the current season, and if he’s a legitimate starter or even a multi-inning relief piece, that’ll be a fine return for their modest Quintana flier. Nunez, meanwhile, hit .286/.381/.476 in Double-A following the trade and is at .255/.338/.369 in 160 Triple-A plate appearances this year.

Cubs acquire RHP Ben Brown from the Phillies in exchange for RHP David Robertson (8/2/22)

Robertson was one of the most in-demand relievers — or trade candidates in general — at last year’s deadline, and the rebuilding/retooling Cubs needed to get their return right. So far, it looks like they’ve done just that. Brown is out to a sensational start in the upper minors this year, pitching to a combined 2.63 ERA with a 35.5% strikeout rate against a less-appealing 11.7% walk rate. Baseball America ranked him sixth among Cubs prospects heading into the season, and The Athletic’s Keith Law called him a “heck of a get for two months of a 37-year-old reliever.” FanGraphs currently has him ranked 87th on their top-100 prospect list, and MLB.com moved him into its top-100 just this morning.

Despite Brown’s wide-reaching acclaim, the Phillies might not even regret making the swap. Robertson struggled with his command following the trade but still posted 22 1/3 innings of 2.70 ERA ball and saved six games for Philadelphia down the stretch in a tight Wild Card race that saw them edge out the Brewers by exactly one win. The Phillies needed every single victory, and if they’d held onto Brown and targeted a different reliever(s), who knows whether they’d have reached the playoffs? Were it not for Robertson — who pitched 7 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs — the Phils may never have experienced J.T. Realmuto’s NLDS inside-the-parker, Rhys Hoskins’ four-homer NLCS, or Bryce Harper’s iconic NLCS-clinching bomb.

Angels acquire OFs Mickey Moniak, Jadiel Sanchez from the Phillies in exchange for RHP Noah Syndergaard (8/2/22)

This trade might not have gone as well as the Phillies hoped. Syndergaard was decent down the stretch, pitching to a 4.12 ERA in 10 appearances, nine of them starts. He started just twice in the postseason and made one relief appearance. Syndergaard pitched like a fourth or fifth starter but saw his already diminished velocity and strikeout rate step even further back following the trade. Again, the Phils needed every last win to get to the playoffs, though, so it’s hard to say they’d definitively have done anything different. They won six of Syndergaard’s nine starts and also picked up the victory in the lone game they used him out of the bullpen, when he tossed two scoreless frames.

At least thus far, Angels fans can’t complain about the return. Moniak isn’t going to sustain a .429 batting average on balls in play, but he’s hitting .327/.340/.694 in 50 plate appearances. The BABIP and a 34% strikeout rate scream for regression, but the former 1-1 pick has already hit as many homers through 50 trips to the plate with the Halos (four) as he did in 167 with the Phillies. He’s played good defense, run well and given some hope that he can carve out a role moving forward.

Red Sox acquire INF Enmanuel Valdez, OF Wilyer Abreu from the Astros in exchange for C Christian Vazquez (8/1/22)

Trading Vazquez was part of a disjointed Red Sox trade deadline that saw Boston trade away their longtime catcher and lefty reliever Jake Diekman while also acquiring Eric Hosmer and Tommy Pham. It wasn’t clear that their 2023 roster was improved, and the decision to hold onto other trade targets while adding Pham’s salary left them just over the luxury tax line (thereby reducing their compensation for qualifying offers extended to Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi).

Digression aside, the swap might prove beneficial to the Sox in the long run. Valdez has already made his big league debut, and although his bat faded after a hot start, he’s still sporting a passable .244/.292/.422 batting line (91 wRC+) in his first 97 big league plate appearances. He’s picked up four homers, four doubles and three steals (in four tries) while subbing in at second base in the wake of a slew of middle-infield injuries. Valdez posted absolutely massive numbers in 205 Double-A plate appearances last year (.357/.463/.649) before moving up to Triple-A and hitting .265/.327/.488.

Abreu, meanwhile, was added to the 40-man roster over the winter and is hitting .264/.379/.479 in 40 Triple-A games so far. He’s regarded as a potential plus outfield defender, and his success in Triple-A and status on the 40-man roster mean the Red Sox could possibly have two MLB contributors within a year or so of trading Vazquez.

It’s hard to say anything moves the 2022 Astros made “didn’t work out,” as the team won the World Series in the end. But Vazquez took a backseat to Martin Maldonado both in the regular season and the playoffs, hitting just .250/.278/.308 in 108 regular-season plate appearances following the swap (plus .235/.316/.235 in just 19 playoff plate appearances).

Cubs Place Justin Steele On 15-Day Injured List

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The Cubs placed left-hander Justin Steele on the 15-day injured list due to a left forearm strain.  The placement is retroactive to June 1.  Taking Steele’s spot on the active roster is catcher Miguel Amaya, who was called up from Triple-A Iowa.

As detailed in reports earlier today, the MRI on Steele’s forearm revealed no structural damage, leaving even some possibility that Steele might miss a start but avoid doing on the injured list altogether.  However, it appears as though the Cubs have decided to err on the side of caution, which is understandable given the larger-scale injuries that can be associated with forearm problems.  For now, it would seem possible that Steele might be able to return after the minimum 15 days, making this IL stint perhaps just a blip in what has been an otherwise excellent season for the 27-year-old southpaw.

Steele has a 2.65 ERA over 12 starts and 68 innings, along with a strong 5.9% walk rate and an elite 28% hard-hit ball rate.  Steele’s 21.4% strikeout rate is well below average, but his ability to both keep the ball on the ground (48.4% grounder rate) and induce soft contact has been a winning recipe for success, and even a step up from his quality numbers in 2021-22.

The forearm problem arose during Steele’s start on Wednesday, as he was perfect over three innings against the Pirates before being removed from the game.  Hayden Wesneski is slated to take Steele’s spot in the rotation, and Wesneski is scheduled to start on Tuesday against the Angels.

Amaya made his MLB debut by playing in six games for Chicago earlier this season, and the former top-100 prospect will now get another look at the big league level.  With Yan Gomes and Tucker Barnhart taking up the catching duties, it remains to be seen how much playing time Amaya might get during this latest stint in the Show, and it might end up being a relatively brief stay until the Cubs feel the need to call up a fresh arm.

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