Cubs Activate Jason Heyward, Option Greg Deichmann
The Cubs have activated Jason Heyward from the IL, per a team announcement. In a corresponding move, Greg Deichmann has been optioned to Triple-A. This is the inverse of the roster move from 10 days ago, when Deichmann was called up as Heyward went onto the IL.
This was the first major league action for Deichmann, who just joined the Cubs in the Andrew Chafin trade. He got into seven games and made 23 plate appearances, hitting .174. At Triple-A this year, he has a slash line of .291/.425/.439, for a wRC+ of 124.
Heyward is now one of the few household names remaining after the Cubs’ deadline fire sale. Along with Kyle Hendricks and David Bote, he’s one of just three players on the team with a guaranteed contract for next season. He’ll make $22MM in 2022 and 2023 as he finishes out the eight-year contract he signed prior to the 2016 season. After an excellent 2020 campaign, he’s crashed back to earth this year, with a slash line of .198/.271/.322, a wRC+ of 63.
Cubs Place Adbert Alzolay On 10-Day Injured List
The Cubs have placed right-hander Adbert Alzolay on the 10-day injured list due to a left hamstring strain. Righty Trevor Megill was called up from Triple-A in the corresponding move.
Alzolay left his start last night in the second inning due to the injury, adding to a disastrous inning for the Cubs that saw the Marlins score 11 runs en route to a 14-10 victory. Alzolay was charged with six of those runs over his 1 1/3 innings of work, his worst performance in what has been an inconsistent season for the 26-year-old. Alzolay has a 5.16 ERA over 106 1/3 frames in 2021, as above-average walk and strikeouts rates haven’t been enough to counter a lot of hard contact from opposing batters against Alzolay’s offerings.
After posting a 2.95 ERA over a small sample size of 21 1/3 innings last season, Alzolay was seen as a candidate to step forward and establish himself as a regular member of Chicago’s rotation. Given how the Cubs have dealt much of their veteran pitching beyond Kyle Hendricks, Alzolay is still a candidate for the 2022 staff almost by default. Once he returns from the IL, Alzolay will get the rest of this season to make his case heading into Spring Training and ahead of whatever pitching additions the Cubs could make this winter.
Cubs Release Jake Arrieta, Designate Kyle Ryan For Assignment
The Cubs have requested unconditional release waivers on right-hander Jake Arrieta, per a team announcement. That move comes amid a series of transactions, as Chicago has also placed catcher Willson Contreras on the 10-day injured list with a sprained knee, reinstated catcher Austin Romine from the 60-day injured list, selected the contract of right-hander Ryan Meisinger from Triple-A Iowa, and designated lefty Kyle Ryan for assignment.
It’s been a miserable season for Arrieta in his return to Chicago. The former Cy Young winner got out to a nice start, working to a 2.57 ERA through April 25, but he’s been tattooed for 58 runs in 58 1/3 innings since that time. Opponents have racked up 91 hits, including 19 home runs, during that stretch. Last night’s outing was particularly non-competitive; Arrieta yielded seven runs in the first inning and ultimately departed after four frames with eight Brewers runs on the board.
The Cubs signed Arrieta to a one-year, $6MM deal over the winter with the hope that the injury troubles which plagued him during his three years with the Phillies were behind him. He’s avoided any notable arm troubles, but Arrieta’s fastball is sitting at a career-low 90.8 mph on the year and he’s seen across-the-board declines in swinging-strike rate, chase rate, home-run rate and walk rate. This marks the sixth straight season that he’s seen his ERA increase from the prior season.
Arrieta is still owed the balance of that $6MM salary — about $1.71MM between now and season’s end. He’s a lock to clear release waivers and become a free agent, but any team that signs him thereafter would only owe him the prorated league minimum for the remainder of the year. That sum would then be subtracted from the balance owed to him by the Cubs.
As for Contreras, the knee troubles that are currently hobbling him are believed to be minor. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters this morning that the move was “precautionary” in nature (Twitter link via the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan). He’s seemingly not expected to require a lengthy stay on the injured list.
Romine, who has logged just six games and nine place appearances this season due to a left wrist sprain, will presumably pick up the bulk of the catching work in place of Contreras. The veteran 32-year-old was the Yankees’ backup catcher from 2016-19 before signing with the Tigers as a free agent for the 2020 season. He’ll now get the opportunity to team up with his brother, Andrew, for the first time in the big leagues. The Cubs inked Andrew to a minor league pact at the end of Spring Training and recently selected him to the Major League roster.
Meisinger, 27, has a 5.70 career ERA, albeit in a tiny sample of 23 2/3 innings between the Orioles and the division-rival Cardinals. He’s spent the 2021 season thus far with the Cubs’ top affiliate in Iowa, pitching to a 4.25 ERA with a huge 34.4 percent strikeout rate but also a concerning 12.2 percent walk rate (in addition to three hit batters).
The 29-year-old Ryan, meanwhile, has struggled to a 6.75 ERA in 13 1/3 innings this year. It’s the second straight season of struggles for Ryan, who posted similarly discouraging numbers in 15 2/3 frames with the 2020 Cubs.
That said, Ryan has been excellent in 25 innings of Triple-A ball this season, logging a 2.52 ERA with a 24-to-7 K/BB ratio. He’s also not terribly far removed from a 2019 season that saw him toss 61 frames of 3.54 ERA ball as one of the Cubs’ most heavily used relievers.
With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, Ryan will be placed on either outright or release waivers in the coming days and be made available to all 29 other clubs. He’s playing on an $800K salary, so he’ll cost a bit more than the league minimum, but Ryan has a bit of track record and can be optioned for the remainder of the season, so he’d be a solid enough depth pickup for a team in need of some southpaws in the bullpen.
Cubs Activate Rowan Wick From Injured List
The Cubs are activating reliever Rowan Wick from the 60-day injured list before the second game of today’s doubleheader with the Brewers, the team informed reporters (including Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times). He’ll be making his season debut whenever he gets into a game. The Cubs already had a vacancy on the 40-man roster, so no corresponding move is required.
Wick hasn’t pitched since last September on account of a left oblique strain. The righty was one of the Cubs’ top relievers from 2019-20, combining for 50 2/3 innings of 2.66 ERA ball. Wick punched out a solid 25.7% of batters faced in that time, albeit with a slightly elevated 10.3% walk rate.
At 52-62, the Cubs have fallen into fourth place in the National League Central. The team is playing out the string at this point. Still, Wick’s return gives him a few weeks to log some innings and look to cement himself as a back-end option for the team going into 2022.
Central Notes: Kimbrel, White Sox, Cubs, Donaldson, Boyd, Warren, File
White Sox GM Rick Hahn and Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer began trade discussions on July 9, ESPN.com’s Jesse Rogers reports, and it wasn’t until July 20 that the two sides reconnected for what became more intensive talks that led to a pair of major trades. In separate deals, the Sox acquired Ryan Tepera on July 29 and then a deadline-day blockbuster that saw Craig Kimbrel head to the south side of Chicago.
Nick Madrigal emerged as the top piece in the Kimbrel deal, though it wasn’t until the day of the trade that the White Sox also added right-hander Codi Heuer to make it a two-player package. That was enough to put the Sox ahead of a competitive market, and in Kimbrel, the team landed a player that Hahn and executive VP Ken Williams had both prioritized as a key acquisition to bolster the bullpen.
More on both the AL and NL Central divisions…
- Josh Donaldson continues to be bothered by soreness in his right hamstring, and he didn’t see any action for the second consecutive game. Over the Twins‘ last 10 games, Donaldson has started twice and come off the bench three times, and manager Rocco Baldelli said the club is “still going to wait and see” if Donaldson can avoid the injured list. “JD is still a little sore and we are still working our way through, just figuring out a timeline as far as when he’ll be able to return,” Baldelli told Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press and other reporters.
- Matthew Boyd threw a live batting practice session at the Tigers‘ Spring Training facility in Lakeland, manager A.J. Hinch told MLB.com’s Jason Beck and other reporters. Boyd hasn’t pitched since June 14 due to a triceps issue, so a move to the 60-day injured list could be in the works should Detroit require some 40-man roster space in the near future. Boyd’s BP session does represent some progress, and a proper minor league rehab assignment could follow provided Boyd doesn’t hit any setbacks. The left-hander was off to a solid start to the 2021 season, posting a 3.44 ERA over his first 70 2/3 innings.
- Reds manager David Bell provided an update on Art Warren, telling reporters (including The Cincinnati Enquirer’s Bobby Nightengale) that Warren will require roughly another month to recover from a left oblique strain. The rookie right-hander has already missed about four weeks due to the injury, which interrupted a strong beginning to Warren’s first season in Cincinnati. Warren struck out 36.2% of opposing batters while posting a 1.88 ERA over 14 1/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen.
- The Brewers announced that right-hander Dylan File has been activated off the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A Nashville. File underwent elbow surgery in February and has yet to pitch this season, apart from some minor league rehab outings. Considering that the Brewers are dealing with several bullpen absences due to injuries and a COVID-19 outbreak, it might not be out of the question that the 25-year-old File is called up to make his MLB debut before the 2021 season is through.
Central Notes: White Sox, Cubs, Tigers
The White Sox rolled out a $128MM payroll on opening day this year, already the highest in franchise history, but don’t expect Chicago to curb their spending now. Team options for the newly acquired Cesar Hernandez and Craig Kimbrel would bring their payroll for next season up to $150MM — and that’s before arbitration raises – but owner Jerry Reinsdorf and GM Rick Hahn have prepared for this payroll spike and they’re ready for it, per The Athletic’s James Fegan. If Hernandez and/or Kimbrel aren’t part of the 2022 Sox, it won’t be because of their impact on the payroll. Elsewhere from the flyover states…
- On the other side of the Chicago, the Cubs are looking towards the future, and that means increased opportunities for young arms in the rotation, writes Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times. Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson, and Adbert Alzolay are key names to watch as they make starts between veterans Kyle Hendricks and Alec Mills. For the Cubs to have a quick turnaround, they need some of these young hurlers to develop as rotation arms, despite their overall lack of prospect pedigree.
- Niko Goodrum could be back with the Tigers as early as Tuesday, per Chris McCosky of The Detroit News. Goodrum has been out with both a finger tendon injury and a calf contusion dating back to mid-June. Daz Cameron, meanwhile, suffered a setback in his own rehab. He had to be sat down for a couple of days, so there’s no timetable at present for his return.
Cubs Promote Greg Deichmann, Place Jason Heyward On Injured List
The Cubs have placed outfielder Jason Heyward on the 10-day IL due to a left hand injury and recalled outfield prospect Greg Deichmann for his Major League debut, per a club announcement.
Deichmann, 26, only recently joined the organization when he was traded over from the A’s in the deal that send lefty Andrew Chafin to Oakland. He’s had a slow start in seven Triple-A games with the Cubs, but his overall body of work this season has been quite strong; in 285 plate appearances, Deichmann is batting .291/.425/.439 with four homers, 16 doubles, three triples and eight steals (in ten tries). He’s walked at a gaudy 18.9 percent clip that’s more than double the current MLB average and punched out at a 22.8 percent rate that would sit below today’s MLB average.
That keen eye at the plate is one of Deichmann’s calling cards and one of the reasons he’s been a fairly well regarded prospect in the A’s system despite not yet tapping into his considerable raw power. Deichmann has drawn a free pass in 13.2 percent of his career minor league plate appearances since being selected out of Louisiana State University by the A’s in the second round of the 2017 draft.
While Deichmann has never topped 11 home runs in a minor league season, he did swat nine long balls in just 95 plate appearances in the 2019 Arizona Fall League. He ranks as the Cubs’ 20th prospect at MLB.com and at FanGraphs, where Eric Longenhagen puts a hefty 70 grade (on the 20-80 scale) on his raw power. Deichmann has been used exclusively in right field this year, though he saw very brief spells at first base and in center earlier in his career. He’s not a burner on the bases or in the outfield, but scouting reports peg him for an average or slightly better arm.
Moving forward, Deichmann has the makings of a left-handed-hitting corner outfielder with some pop and strong OBP skills, though given his sub-.600 OPS against lefties over the past three minor league seasons, he may benefit from a platoon partner. The Cubs can certainly afford to give him consistent at-bats for the rest of the season, particularly with Heyward on the injured list. At the moment, Deichmann joins Ian Happ and Rafael Ortega in a largely overhauled Cubs outfield scene.
There’s no indication as to how long Heyward is expected to miss, but there ought to be room for a two-month Deichmann audition even if it’s a minimal absence for the soon-to-be 32-year-old Heyward. In 284 plate appearances this season, he’s batted just .198/.271/.322. The Cubs still owe Heyward a $22MM salary in both 2022 and 2023.
Reds Notes: Bryant, Turner, Castellanos, Sims
The Reds had a fairly quiet deadline, but Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported this week that they pursued at least one outside-the-box upgrade to their lineup: Kris Bryant. Cincinnati viewed Bryant as a possible option in center field, but would only have been able to acquire him in the event that the Cubs paid the remaining $6.8MM on his contract between the deadline and the end of the season. The Reds also at least looked into Nationals shortstop Trea Turner, Rosenthal adds, though those talks never became particularly serious.
It stands to reason that if the Reds would’ve needed the Cubs to cover the remainder of Bryant’s contract, the same would’ve held true with the Nationals in a deal for Turner, who is earning $13MM in 2021 and was owed $4.5MM from July 31 through season’s end. He’ll also be in line for a considerable raise via arbitration this winter, and Turner would have naturally come with a higher cost of acquisition, from a prospect standpoint, due that extra year of control.
In the end, the Reds’ deadline brought them a trio relievers in Mychal Givens, Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson, all of whom were acquired at minimal prospect cost. They’ll deepen a Reds relief corps that ranks 28th in the Majors with a 5.34 ERA and currently has two of its best relievers, Tejay Antone and Lucas Sims, on the injured list.
More out of Cincinnati…
- The Reds could get slugger Nick Castellanos back in the lineup as soon as today, writes Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer. The 29-year-old Castellanos sustained a microfracture in his wrist when he was hit by a pitch three weeks ago. Initial X-rays didn’t catch the fracture, which led to Castellanos making some pinch-hit appearances while playing through considerable discomfort, but a CT scan eventually revealed the damage. Castellanos said back on July 21 that was unable to swing a bat, but Nightengale notes that Castellanos has taken batting practice three times this week. Manager David Bell said the club’s primary concern is getting Castellanos “back to full strength” so he doesn’t develop any poor mechanics as compensation for a lack of strength in the wrist. Castellanos, who can opt out of the final two years of his contract this offseason, has mashed at a .329/.383/.582 pace and clubbed 18 home runs through 368 plate appearances in 2021.
- Injured righty Lucas Sims is progressing through a rehab assignment and made his fourth appearance with Triple-A Louisville last night. Bell told reporters recently that the plan was to build Sims up to pitch in back-to-back games (link via Mark Sheldon of MLB.com), which he’s yet to do. Still, the fact that he’s progressed through four rehab outings, seemingly without issue, suggests a return sooner than later for the righty, who’d been on a lights-out hot streak before getting clobbered for three runs without recording an out on June 22. Sims was placed on the injured list with an elbow sprain the next day. Sims has had three particularly tough outings in 2021, including that final appearance before going on the injured list, but has generally been solid otherwise. His 5.02 ERA is skewed by that handful of rough outings, but Sims carries vastly more encouraging marks in FIP (3.44), SIERA (3.20) and strikeout percentage (34.9). A healthy Sims would be a major boost to the Reds’ bullpen as they push to close a four-game gap in the Wild Card standings.
Where Do The Cubs Go From Here?
Last week’s trades of Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, and Kris Bryant were painful for Cubs fans. Rizzo had been a Cub for 9.5 years. Baez was drafted by the Cubs and his tenure lasted a decade. Bryant was with the team for eight years after being drafted. By 3pm Friday, all three were in different uniforms. We can debate separately why it came to this, but today the question is, where do the Cubs go from here?
Let’s take stock of what the Cubs currently have at each position.
Catcher
Willson Contreras, 29, is under team control through 2022. As Contreras put it recently, “This is the only team I’ve played for, and if they want to rebuild around me, I’m happy to talk.” Given GM Jed Hoyer’s frustration in failing to lock up Rizzo, Baez, and Bryant, the Cubs may not necessarily be able to match up with Contreras, in which case an offseason trade would make sense.
22-year-old Miguel Amaya, the heir apparent, currently sports an odd Double-A batting line of .215/.406/.304. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen recently downgraded Amaya to a 45 grade, on account of a relative lack of power. He hasn’t played since June 3rd due to an injury.
There are no franchise catchers in the 2021-22 free agent class, so the Cubs have all of 2022 to figure out if their future starter behind the dish will be Contreras, Amaya, or neither.
First Base
Rizzo was a mainstay at first base for the Cubs since 2012, but he was traded to the Yankees last Thursday. Last March, Ken Rosenthal and Patrick Mooney of The Athletic reported the Cubs offered him a five-year, $70MM extension. Technically, the Cubs could bring Rizzo back in the offseason, but that will probably only happen if he finds the open market terribly disappointing. And even in that case, he may prefer to play for a team with a better shot at reaching the playoffs.
In Rizzo’s absence, Patrick Wisdom has been playing first base for the Cubs. Wisdom, who turns 30 later this month, owns a 142 wRC+ in 186 plate appearances this year. More time will be needed to determine whether Wisdom is a valuable late bloomer, or if he’s a journeyman having a good couple of months. Wisdom is nowhere near free agency and won’t even be arbitration eligible until after 2023, so the Cubs can afford to give him regular playing time in 2022. He’s played more third than first base, so that could be his ultimate spot. The Cubs could also take a look some point at Alfonso Rivas, who has a 130 wRC+ at Triple-A despite modest power.
This winter the Cubs could hit the market for a veteran placeholder in the mold of Brandon Belt or C.J. Cron, if they decide to play Wisdom mostly at third base in 2022.
Second Base
The Cubs were surprisingly able to land Nick Madrigal from the White Sox for Craig Kimbrel in one of their trade deadline deals. Madrigal, 25 in March, is under team control through 2026. He’s out for the season due to a torn hamstring, but figures to be a mainstay in the Cubs’ lineup for years.
Shortstop
In 2019, Baez settled in as the Cubs’ everyday shortstop, a year after he finished second in the MVP voting. He was a fan favorite, but again, the Cubs couldn’t find common ground on a contract extension. Baez was traded to the Mets, where he’ll play shortstop until Francisco Lindor returns from an injury, and then switch to second base to finish out the season alongside his friend.
Last April, Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported that in spring 2020, the Cubs offered Baez a contract in the range of $160-170MM. ESPN’s Buster Olney suggested the $180MM range. That’s not an amount I expect Baez to approach in free agency this winter, especially with significant competition at shortstop. This is a case where the Cubs keeping the door open to a reunion could potentially matter, but like Rizzo he’d still have to experience a disappointing market first. The lack of a collective bargaining agreement could further complicate matters.
Under the Theo Epstein regime, the Cubs were not opposed to making a free agent strike if they liked the player, even if their perceived competitive window was not yet open. The idea worked poorly with Edwin Jackson, and well with Jon Lester. In that sense, it wouldn’t be crazy to see the Cubs make a run at one of the jewels of the 2021-22 free agent class, Corey Seager or Carlos Correa. Both are young enough that if 2022 and ’23 turn out to be rebuilding years for the Cubs, they’d still have a portion of the player’s prime. The players might require a premium to enter into a rebuilding situation.
On the other hand, the Cubs’ $126MM deal for Yu Darvish will be nearly three years in the past when free agency opens, and the Ricketts family has not been flexing financial muscle in the interim. The Cubs have only about $40MM committed to the 2022 payroll, with Jason Heyward, Kyle Hendricks, and David Bote.
Barring an unlikely major free agent signing, the Cubs’ future at shortstop involves Nico Hoerner and Ed Howard. Hoerner figures to play the position in the immediate future. Howard, who the Cubs drafted 16th overall out of high school last summer, might be the long-term answer. Cristian Hernandez may be in that discussion as well, but both teenagers are several years away.
Third Base
Wisdom and Bote should be in the mix for the Cubs at the hot corner next year, with Matt Duffy headed to free agency. Prospect Christopher Morel hasn’t done much with Double-A pitching so far this year, but if he figures it out he’ll enter the third base picture. Even if Wisdom works out as a big league regular, the Cubs will be lacking at whichever infield corner he doesn’t play. The free agent market doesn’t offer any exciting players, aside from Bryant.
Left Field
Ian Happ has drawn the Cubs’ left field assignment of late, though he’s having an abysmal year. Making $4.1MM through arbitration this year, he won’t get much of a raise this winter, so the Cubs can afford another year to see if he can regain his hitting stroke. A stopgap veteran addition would also make sense, with free agency featuring Andrew McCutchen, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, and even players the Cubs have already tried like Kyle Schwarber and Joc Pederson.
Center Field
The Cubs are well-covered here, as prospect Brennen Davis was recently ranked 30th in the game by Baseball America. Davis is playing well at Double-A this year, with a .267/.383/.515 line. BA has suggested he may eventually move to right field, and at Double-A he’s spent more time in center but a fair bit in right. You can safely pencil Davis in at one of those two spots – probably in late April next year once he’s done “working on his defense” (wink, wink).
Meanwhile in the Majors, with Happ struggling and Jake Marisnick traded, Rafael Ortega is attempting to win the Cubs’ regular center field job. After a recent home run binge, the 30-year-old is up to a 144 wRC+ in 123 plate appearances. Like Wisdom, it’s too early to say whether Ortega will establish himself as an above average big leaguer. But the Cubs are in good position to let Ortega try for the rest of the year, and into 2022 if it goes well.
Right Field
With a 63 wRC+ this year, Jason Heyward’s offense has been reminiscent of his first year with the Cubs, when he surprisingly slumped to a 72 mark. If his struggles persist, the Cubs are going to have better uses of the playing time. Heyward is owed $44MM from 2022-23. He remains the one large contract on the Cubs’ books, but only two years remain.
Greg Deichmann, who joined the Cubs in the Andrew Chafin trade with Oakland, is a name to watch in the team’s right field mix. He posted a .433 OBP for the Triple-A Las Vegas Aviators and should be in the Majors soon. The Cubs have a slew of other outfield prospects in the system, but most of them are further away.
Starting Rotation
Kyle Hendricks continues to be the rock of the Cubs’ rotation. The low-key veteran can be retained through 2024 if the Cubs pick up his club option. While Hendricks could be traded this winter, the 31-year-old soft-tosser could also be part of the next Cubs contender. Hendricks seems like he’ll age gracefully, since he’s not dependent on velocity.
Adbert Alzolay has shown enough to have a rotation spot locked down for next year. He’s got a 4.85 ERA in 19 starts, which isn’t great, but he probably won’t continue to see a quarter of his flyballs leave the yard. Alzolay’s struggles against left-handed hitters have been pronounced, however: 19 home runs in 196 batters faced. Still, the bar is pretty low to be in the Cubs’ 2022 rotation. Alec Mills will still be around next year to fill a swingman role.
Justin Steele and Keegan Thompson are being stretched out for looks in the Cubs’ rotation down the stretch. These are not pitchers the prospect hounds get particularly excited about, but the Cubs have plenty of opportunity for anyone who can capitalize. Prospect gurus do get excited about Brailyn Marquez, who Baseball America ranked as the 99th-best prospect in the game. However, the 22-year-old has yet to pitch this year due to a shoulder strain. Caleb Kilian, acquired in the Bryant deal, has pitched well at Double-A, so we could see him in the Majors relatively soon.
As it stands now, the Cubs simply don’t have the pitching in-house to get through the 2022 season, let alone compete. It’s a rotation ripe for opportunistic free agent signings, a place where guys like Dylan Bundy or James Paxton can look to get their careers back on track before getting flipped for prospects.
Bullpen
The Cubs’ bullpen has been stripped of its three highest-leverage relievers: Kimbrel, Ryan Tepera, and Andrew Chafin. Codi Heuer, acquired in the Kimbrel deal, will take a spot. Beyond him, I assume the Cubs will look to replicate one of their few successes of the previous offseason: the signings of Tepera and Chafin for a total of $3.55MM. The goal will be to sign another batch of veteran relievers, coax good first halves out of them, and trade them for prospects at the deadline.
Conclusion
After all the star players were purged, the Cubs are frankly low on present talent. For 2022, they’ve got massive holes throughout their lineup and pitching staff. Their farm system has Davis plus various interesting players, but it’s not teeming with blue-chip prospects like the Rays, Mariners, Blue Jays, or Tigers. Given their market size, it doesn’t seem like the Cubs should be dropping down to a bottom-10 payroll in the game. But an analysis of the roster and farm system suggests the Cubs cannot spend their way back into contention, at least not in the 2021-22 offseason alone. Last time it was a three-year rebuild, and to contend again with anything less will be a difficult or expensive feat.
Cubs’ Hoyer Discusses Lack Of Extensions For Core Players
It’s been a surreal week for Cubs fans, watching the core of the 2016 World Series club head out the door at the trade deadline in exchange for a series of prospects. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez have been the faces of the Cubs for a half decade now, but they now find themselves with the Giants, Yankees and Mets, respectively. Also out the door are closer Craig Kimbrel, right-hander Ryan Tepera, lefty Andrew Chafin, outfielder Joc Pederson and outfielder Jake Marisnick.
Generally speaking, fans knew this was coming, but even after president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer made clear that the Cubs were shifting to a seller’s mindset, there were many who questioned just how far the sale would go. Bryant had long been viewed as a trade candidate after talks with him had failed to materialize in a deal multiple times in the past. Baez, however, had spoken more optimistically about reaching a deal in the past, as had Rizzo. Now, days after the deadline, Hoyer expressed frustration during a radio interview on ESPN 1000.
“I put my head on the pillow every night knowing that we put our best foot forward,” said Hoyer (Twitter thread via ESPN’s Jesse Rogers). “The extensions we offered these guys will hold up exceptionally well, historically they’ll hold up exceptionally well against the open market. I don’t know why guys didn’t want to sign. I don’t know why guys didn’t even want to counteroffer sometimes.”
Hoyer lamented that while many players publicly expressed interest in staying long-term, “when we sat down to do negotiations, that wasn’t how they acted.” Somewhat curiously, he pointed across town to the White Sox, noting that Lance Lynn “could’ve gotten more on the open market this winter but he said ‘I want to stay here.'” Of course, Lynn is a 34-year-old trade acquisition who isn’t at all in the same position as the core Cubs who were dealt last Friday, and the implication of blame residing with the now-former Cubs players lacks plenty of critical context.
Rizzo, for instance, would’ve been a free agent in the 2018-19 offseason had he not inked a seven-year, $41MM contract back in May 2013. That deal contained a pair of club options and ultimately wound up paying him $75MM over nine years. There’s a difference in taking the “I want to stay here” approach when you’re an inexperienced pre-arbitration player and a soon-to-be free agent, but Rizzo surely felt he’d already given the Cubs one major break and may have been less inclined to do so a second time. Hoyer was clear that his comments were more general and that not all applied to all three of this core trio, so perhaps the Lynn comparison wasn’t intended to strike a parallel with Rizzo — but it’s difficult to overlook that disconnect.
In Hoyer’s defense, we don’t know how many attempts were made to further extend that contract over the years, but Rizzo’s initial extension proved a to be an overwhelming bargain for the club. We do know that back in March, Hoyer proclaimed he was “very confident” that the Cubs would extend Rizzo. That optimism, which came after Rizzo had already turned down a reported five-year, $70MM offer, didn’t manifest in a deal.
Hoyer is probably correct in asserting that said offer will hold up well against open-market bids, barring a huge post-trade surge for Rizzo. That said, it’s also not hard to see why Rizzo would be nonplused with the offer, if the reported terms were indeed accurate. He was entering the final season of the previously mentioned bargain extension, and a year prior he’d seen the Cardinals lock up Paul Goldschmidt for nearly twice as much — a contract that would begin with Goldschmidt’s age-32 season. Next year is Rizzo’s age-32 season. There’s no ignoring that Rizzo was coming off a down season in 2020, but the gap in those offers is still rather sizable, to say the least.
Baez, meanwhile, spoke openly and often about his desire to remain with the Cubs long-term — just as they similarly expressed interest in keeping him. Talks between the two parties seemed to be ongoing for years, with his chances of striking an accord regularly framed as the most favorable of this core trio.
As with the Rizzo/Lynn bit, it’s important to remember that Hoyer was speaking generally rather than addressing all of his former core players. But his assertion that some players didn’t even bother to counter the team’s extension offers certainly seemed to catch the attention of Baez’s agent, Nick Chanock of Wasserman. Chanock tells ESPN’s Jesse Rogers that the Baez camp did indeed present the Cubs with a counterproposal not long before the Covid-19 pandemic shut the league down. Rogers goes on to write that the team didn’t rekindle those talks, nor did they make a final offer to Baez before trading him.
Reports from ESPN’s Buster Olney and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman earlier this summer suggested that the Cubs offered Baez anywhere from $160MM to $180MM, though the length of those deals isn’t clear. It’s also worth noting that at the time, Baez was a 27-year-old shortstop coming off consecutive six-WAR, All-Star seasons — one of which saw him finish runner-up in NL MVP voting. As with Rizzo, that numbers reported by Olney and Heyman will likely “hold up historically” against any open-market earnings for Baez this winter, but that’s only true in light of Baez’s 2020-21 decline at the plate.
Arguably the most notable bit of context in all this is the Cubs’ brazen manipulation of Bryant’s service time, wherein they called him up to the Majors in 2015 the first day he was assured of missing a full year of service that season. In doing so, they effectively pushed his free agency back a year. Bryant went on to win NL Rookie of the Year honors and NL MVP honors over the next two seasons while earning scarcely more than the league minimum.
The Cubs eventually won a service time grievance over Bryant after a league-appointed arbitrator ruled in the team’s favor. Bryant was not granted the extra year of service he sought. No one would expect any team executive to willingly bring such matters up in an interview of this nature, but that’s a clear piece of the puzzle being left untouched in Hoyer’s telling of the situation.
On the one hand, it’s refreshing to see a team’s president of baseball operations speak with candor rather than deliver the same tropes we hear time and again. On the other, it’s almost befuddling to state that it’d be “bad faith” to go into specifics regarding individual negotiations only to then cast blame on the entire group of players while painting with broad strokes. Nearly any GM or agent, when discussing contract negotiations, will break out some variation of the “it takes two to tango” cliche. Hoyer’s assertion that the Cubs “put our best foot forward and tried our hardest, but it was not reciprocated,” however, puts the onus squarely on the players.
Perhaps in some cases, that’s where the “fault” (for lack of a better term) should lie. Perhaps the team will have better luck this winter with catcher Willson Contreras, who said this weekend that even in spite of the sell-off, he hoped to remain with the Cubs and was “happy to talk” if the team “wants to rebuild around me.” But comments questioning the extent to which former teammates were committed to the team don’t seem the best way to set the table for negotiations with Contreras or any other player — and they’re unlikely to assuage a fanbase that has heard more about the luxury tax and revenue losses for the past few years than about any headway in retaining the core players who changed hands last week.