- In another of Thursday’s major news items, the White Sox locked up center field prospect Luis Robert to a six-year, $50MM guarantee. The two sides began negotiations back in September, and those talks gained steam at last month’s Winter Meetings, according to general manager Rick Hahn (via Scott Merkin of MLB.com). Now that Robert’s long-term future is settled, there’s no reason for the White Sox to worry about his service time, so it appears likely he’ll crack their roster out of camp. Robert’s fully confident that will happen. “I’m 100 percent convinced I’m going to be on the Opening Day roster,” the 22-year-old said.
White Sox Rumors
White Sox Designate Tayron Guerrero
The White Sox have designated right-hander Tayron Guerrero for assignment, the team announced. The move makes room for outfielder Luis Robert, whom the White Sox signed to a long-term contract Thursday.
This ends a very short run with the White Sox for the 28-year-old Guerrero, whom the White Sox claimed off waivers from the Marlins on Dec. 6. Although Guerrero’s average fastball approaches 100 mph, he hasn’t been effective in the majors since he debuted in 2016 with the Padres. Through 106 innings, including 46 in 2019, Guerrero has only managed a 5.77 ERA/5.08 FIP with 9.42 K/9 and 5.69 BB/9.
White Sox Sign Luis Robert To Long-Term Deal
1:33pm: The White Sox have announced the contract. Robert will earn $1.5MM in 2020, $3.5MM in 2021, $6MM in 2022, $9.5MM in 2023, $12.5MM in 2024 and $15MM in 2025.
12:07pm: The White Sox have reached a long-term agreement with center field prospect Luis Robert, Bob Nightengale of USA Today reports. The deal includes $50MM in guaranteed money over six years, and it features two club options, per Jeff Passan of ESPN. The max value is $88MM over eight years, including $20MM club options for 2026-27 with $2MM buyouts in each of the two seasons, Passan adds. It’s a record-setting accord for a player who hasn’t yet debuted in the majors.
This will already be the second lucrative contract for the 22-year-old Robert, whom the White Sox signed out of Cuba for a $26MM bonus a couple months into the 2017 season. Robert has justified his payday since then, as he’s now regarded as one of the majors’ premier prospects. He ran roughshod over the high minors last season, batting .297/.341/.634 with 16 home runs in 223 plate appearances during his first (and maybe only) taste of Triple-A action.
As MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk recently noted when exploring a potential extension for Robert, he’s the latest White Sox outfielder to land a new deal before ever playing in the majors. The club signed outfielder Eloy Jimenez to a six-year, $43MM pact – then a record for an early career extension – shortly before last season started. Jimenez has more than lived up to the decision so far, having finished 2019 among the majors’ most successful rookies.
The Robert pact gives the White Sox an extra year of control over him, as they’re now slated to keep him through 2027 instead of ’26. Plus, if all goes well, it could tamp down massive arbitration earnings for Robert. Regardless, the White Sox now have at least two-thirds of an extremely enviable young outfield between him and Jimenez. And if recent trade acquisition Nomar Mazara, 24, begins living up to his vast potential, Chicago could possess one of the sport’s premier outfields for the foreseeable future.
Now that there’s no need to manipulate his service time, it seems likely Robert will open 2020 as the White Sox’s everyday center fielder. So, for the most part, the team’s Opening-Day lineup for the upcoming season appears set. The White Sox also have Jimenez (left), Mazara (right), Yoan Moncada (third base) and Tim Anderson (shortstop) as key members of their young offensive core. Sluggers Jose Abreu and Edwin Encarnacion (DH/1B) and catcher Yasmani Grandal will supplement that group, with a potential-packed rotation set to consist of some combination of Lucas Giolito, Dallas Keuchel, Reynaldo Lopez, Dylan Cease, Gio Gonzalez, Michael Kopech and Carlos Rodon.
Last decade was one to forget for the White Sox, who haven’t made the playoffs since 2008 or finished above .500 since 2012. But judging by general manager Rick Hahn’s actions this winter, including Robert’s contract, they’re all-in on changing their fortunes as early as this year.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Hahn: White Sox Have Payroll Space For Additional Moves
The White Sox have signed Dallas Keuchel, Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion and Gio Gonzalez this winter, extended Jose Abreu and acquired Nomar Mazara in a trade with the Rangers. Even with those additions, GM Rick Hahn said on a conference call to introduce Keuchel today that he has space to add further players and is also planning to keep some resources set aside for midseason acquisitions (Twitter link via Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times).
Between Keuchel, Grandal, Encarnacion, Gonzalez and Abreu, the White Sox added $65MM in payroll to the 2020 books — to say nothing of a $5.7MM projected arbitration salary for Mazara. In all, they’ve doled out a guaranteed $195.5MM plus Mazara’s impending salary, wherever it may land.
It’s the most aggressive offseason from the Sox since a 2014-15 offseason that saw them spend a combined $134MM on David Robertson, Melky Cabrera, Adam LaRoche, Zach Duke, Emilio Bonifacio and Gordon Beckham in addition to their acquisition of Jeff Samardzija. But even with this winter’s slate of additions, the Sox have just $122MM committed to next year’s payroll. That’s thanks largely to a young core of pre-arbitration or already-locked up talents, including Tim Anderson, Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, Eloy Jimenez and Aaron Bummer.
That affordable crop of rising stars and the expected contributions from a slate of pre-arb players and top prospects — Michael Kopech, Dylan Cease, Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal — gives the Sox some long-term flexibility, too, although perhaps not quite as much as one would think. Chicago has $67MM on the books for 2021, per Jason Martinez of Roster Resource, not including arbitration salaries for Mazara, Moncada, Giolito, Bummer, Carlos Rodon and Reynaldo Lopez. And in 2022 they actually have more money on the books than in 2021 ($72.75MM), thanks to the backloaded nature of Abreu’s contract and some built-in raises in the Anderson and Jimenez extensions. Add in second-time arbitration raises for Moncada, Giolito and Bummer, and the Sox’ 2022 payroll could already be expected to come in north of $90MM.
None of that is to say that the Sox are facing some sort of logjam down the road, but speculatively speaking, those mounting long-term commitments could make a shorter-term pickup preferable when looking to augment the 2020 club. Hahn confirmed today what was reported last week (Twitter link via Van Schouwen): the Sox are looking to improve the team’s bullpen for the upcoming season. With most of the top relievers off the board, a short-term deal with a free agent along the lines of Will Harris or Steve Cishek (among many other still-available arms) seems to be a sensible pursuit. Surely the Sox will also explore the trade route as well when looking for relief reinforcements.
The exact route the ChiSox will take probably isn’t even clear to Hahn and his staff just yet, but today’s comments only reaffirm that the club isn’t done just yet.
White Sox Sign Dallas Keuchel
The White Sox have taken their next step toward emerging from a lengthy rebuilding process, announcing Monday that they’ve signed free-agent lefty Dallas Keuchel to a three-year deal worth a guaranteed $55.5MM. The Scott Boras client also has a fourth-year club/vesting option. Keuchel, the White Sox revealed, will earn $18MM annually, and the Sox hold a $1.5MM buyout on his 2023 option. His option will reportedly vest at $20MM if he pitches 160 innings in years two and three of the contract. Otherwise, it functions as a traditional club option.
Keuchel’s signing means there’s one less coveted gift to claim beneath the free agency tree for leaguewide GMs, but it should bring a good amount of cheer to South Side fans. The Sox have made a substantial investment in the soon-to-be-32-year-old, but he figures to slot in nicely as a steady, veteran presence in a rotation full of youthful upside.
Keuchel may never again regain the form that saw him capture a Cy Young Award back in 2015 with the Astros. That year saw him ride career-best strikeout and walk rates en route to a 2.48 ERA, but ensuing seasons have seen underlying indicators take a more bearish stance on his value. He hasn’t registered better than a 3.69 FIP since 2016, while his strikeout abilities have generally hovered around the 7.0 K/9 range during that same time frame. Never a hard thrower, Keuchel, a sinkerballer by trade, has seen his two-seamer lose almost two full ticks since registering an average speed of 90 mph back in ’15.
Of all the players to be impacted by last season’s free agency freeze, Keuchel may have been hit the hardest. Regardless of whether teams were scared off by early-offseason demands that may have been too optimistic, or simply wary of his age and declining metrics, it’s still fair to say that few foresaw a pitcher of Keuchel’s pedigree having to settle for a one-year, pro-rated June deal with the Braves that guaranteed him just $13MM. But, after a half-season in Atlanta that saw Keuchel perform to career averages with a 3.75 ERA, 3.1 BB/9, 7.3 K/9 output in 112 2/3 innings, Chicago has finally given the lefty the long-term stability he’s been seeking.
Plus, it’s about time the White Sox proved able to land a higher-end free-agent starter to form a battery with Yasmani Grandal. They were said to be engaged seriously with Zack Wheeler and Jordan Lyles before those pitchers signed deals elsewhere that exceeded most outside expectations. Now, Keuchel provides their righty-heavy young rotation with, at worst, an innings-eating lefty with ample experience playing under the game’s brightest lights. With a beard, big frame, and heavy sinker, fans of the next winning Southside team may be forgiven for confusing Keuchel with ghosts of Mark Buehrle past.
Keuchel and the newly signed Gio Gonzalez promise to provide valuable mentorship to young arms like Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Dylan Cease, Michael Kopech, and the mending Carlos Rodon. Giolito had something of a coming-out party in particular last season, but the truth is that every pitcher in that group may have only scratched the surface of their potential. Rodon’s impending return, in particular, should give the Chicago rotation an absolutely stolid look–it may not be the highest-priced rotation in the bigs, but it certainly is long on ace upside and bulldog mentality.
Speaking of prices: Keuchel’s deal makes him the second-highest-paid player (by average annual value) on the Chicago roster, after Grandal. MLBTR correctly predicted the lefty would land with the White Sox this offseason in our free agent predictions from November, but it seems the Boras Corporation was able to leverage interest in Keuchel well in excess of our expectations, as this deal lands safely above the three-year, $39MM contract we projected him to receive.
In addition to their previous deals with Grandal, Gonzalez, and Jose Abreu, this deal brings Chicago’s guarantees this offseason to $183.5MM in new money–before accounting for option years. Add in the projected $5.7MM award due to newly acquired Nomar Mazara and the Sox have come awfully close to supplementing their young core with $200MM in commitments.
It may not be the blockbuster-level deal Keuchel envisioned entering the 2018-19 offseason, nor is it in the same arena as the deals signed this offseason by Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg or Zack Wheeler. What it seems to be rather, is a good click above deals guaranteed to other “mid-rotation” arms like Kyle Gibson (3/$30MM), Tanner Roark (2/$24MM), or Julio Teheran (1/$9MM) this winter—perhaps fair value considering both Keuchel’s Cy Young past and steady, if unspectacular, recent track record.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the agreement (Twitter link). Jon Heyman of MLB Network reported the terms (Twitter link). Bob Nightengale of USA Today added details on the vestting option (Twitter link).
Remaining Needs: AL Central
We’re nearly halfway through what has been a vastly more active offseason than we saw in either of the past two winters. We’ve already checked in on what’s left to do for the five clubs in the NL East and the five in the AL West. Let’s turn the focus to the AL Central as we continue moving through the game’s six divisions…
Minnesota Twins [Offseason Outlook]
Baseball’s most-improved team from 2018 to 2019 entered the offseason in need of a rotation upgrade, and nothing has changed on that front. Several months after broadcasting an intent to pursue “impact” pitching, Minnesota’s rotation is led by a familiar trio: Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda. Kyle Gibson has departed for the Rangers. Martin Perez signed with the Red Sox. The Twins’ rotation, at present, is thinner than it was for much of the 2019 season, and the top free agents are all off the board to other teams. The Twins will have to get creative in order to make good on that promise of adding an impact arm — particularly since few look to be clearly available on the trade market.
The other question facing the Twins is whether they’ll succeed in their ongoing pursuit of former AL MVP Josh Donaldson. Third base isn’t a “need” for the Twins, but penciling in Donaldson at the hot corner and shifting Miguel Sano to first base deepens the lineup while simultaneously improving the infield defense. And the Twins still have ample funds to spend, even after signing Odorizzi, Pineda, Sergio Romo, Tyler Clippard and Alex Avila. If they miss out on Donaldson, too, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine could be all the more motivated to line up an impact trade.
Cleveland Indians [Offseason Outlook]
The Indians might already have succeeded in their primary goal, as ownership looks intent on further paring back payroll after spending at club-record level in the wake of 2016’s World Series run. Gone is Corey Kluber, and the fact that Cleveland moved him for what is widely regarded as a light return (rather than hanging onto him and exploring the midseason market) suggests that clearing his salary was a key piece of the deal.
The Indians reallocated a bit of the money earmarked for Kluber when they agreed to terms with Cesar Hernandez to serve as the new second baseman. But it’s been radio silence from the Cleveland front office otherwise, despite the team’s reported desire for an outfield upgrade. (Delino DeShields, acquired in the Kluber deal, does not fit that description.) It’s tough to see the Indians ponying up for one of Nicholas Castellanos or Marcell Ozuna, but they could still try to play for someone like Corey Dickerson or perhaps explore a Yasiel Puig reunion. The trade market may be the likelier path.
One would expect that the main narrative around the Indians would be “how can they return to the top of the division,” but it’s instead on whether they’ll trade anyone else after clearing Kluber’s salary. Francisco Lindor’s name is dominating the rumor mill in recent weeks, and even Mike Clevinger has seen his name pop up. A deal of either player might not be likely but could bring back some MLB-ready talent (while creating another enormous hole to fill). At this point, Cleveland could stand to add an outfielder, a bullpen arm or another starting pitcher, but it’s not clear how much they’re willing to spend to do so.
Chicago White Sox [Offseason Outlook]
Far and away the most active club in the division — if not in all of baseball — the White Sox have overhauled a roster that now includes Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez and Nomar Mazara (all after agreeing to an extension with Jose Abreu). You can debate the extent to which those moves have improved the roster, but there’s no denying that the South Siders will enter 2020 with a markedly better club (especially when considering the looming promotions of center fielder Luis Robert and second baseman Nick Madrigal).
Frankly, the heavy lifting is mostly complete for GM Rick Hahn and his staff — but don’t expect them to just sit back and wait for Opening Day. The Sox could still look to add a low-cost veteran in center or at second to bridge the gap to those aforementioned top prospects (and to serve as insurance, should they sustain an injury or struggle to adapt to the Majors). The team’s bench looks quite thin at the moment as well. In the bullpen, there’s little certainty beyond the top two names (Alex Colome and Aaron Bummer), so it’s only sensible to add a reliever or two to the fray as they look to build a deeper club capable of postseason contention. It’ll be worth keeping an eye out for some Spring Training extensions for younger players as well.
Kansas City Royals [Offseason Outlook]
The Royals have hired a new manager (Mike Matheny) and bought low on some former top prospects (Maikel Franco, Chance Adams). The signing of Franco and acquisition of Adams are both perfectly sensible moves for a rebuilding club to make, and a few more pickups along those lines wouldn’t be a surprise. But the Royals never figured to be aggressive in free agency this winter, as they’re clearly more focused on winning in 2021-22 than they are in 2020. There’s clearly room to add to the rotation or bullpen later in the offseason, should a good value present itself, but the Royals are also hopeful that several of their best pitching prospects will surface in the Majors in 2020.
Given the team’s current long-term approach, it’s surprising that the soon-to-turn-31 Whit Merrifield isn’t more available on the trade market. However, general manager Dayton Moore has steadfastly maintained that he expects Merrifield to be a part of the Royals’ next competitive club and has resisted all offers dating back to last offseason. The Royals locked Merrifield up to a very affordable extension last winter, and the club could conceivably explore long-term arrangements with the likes of Adalberto Mondesi or Jorge Soler this spring.
Detroit Tigers [Offseason Outlook]
Rebuilding or not, the Tigers opted to add some thump to their lineup earlier this month when they signed both C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop to matching one-year deals. Scooping up the Twins’ right-side infield tandem gives the Tigers some lineup depth and a pair of potential trade chips to flip this summer; a few other short-term moves along those lines could very well play out.
The pitching staff, in particular, looks ripe for short-term upgrades (both in the ’pen and in the rotation). A one-year flier on an Alex Wood or Jimmy Nelson type could pay dividends. Last year’s attempts at turning Tyson Ross and Matt Moore into coveted trade pieces didn’t pan out, but those results shouldn’t push the club away from trying what was a sound strategy once again.
The biggest question surrounding the Tigers is whether Matthew Boyd will be with the club to open the season. Boyd is widely known to be available and has drawn interest from plenty of clubs dating back to the July trade deadline. He’s controlled for another three seasons and emerged as one of the game’s premier strikeout pitchers in 2019, though home runs inflated his ERA. Some teams are surely hopeful, though, that if there’s a correction to last season’s juiced ball, Boyd can take another step forward and cement himself as a high-end rotation cog. There’s no urgency to trade him, but the Tigers will continue to explore the market to see if someone will overwhelm them.
White Sox Turning Focus To Bullpen Upgrades
The White Sox have been perhaps the most active team in baseball this winter, and after adding Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel, Edwin Encarnacion, Gio Gonzalez and Nomar Mazara to the roster, they’re now shifting their focus to bullpen upgrades, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets. Chicago had previously been rumored to have interest in Nicholas Castellanos and, to a lesser extent, Yasiel Puig, but they’re not involved with either player at this time after filling up their corner outfield/DH mix.
The bullpen is another matter entirely, however. Holdovers Alex Colome and Aaron Bummer give the ChiSox a quality right-handed and left-handed option, respectively, but there’s limited certainty beyond that pairing. Righty Evan Marshall posted a terrific 2.49 ERA in 50 2/3 innings but had questionable secondary stats and a possesses a shaky track record. Flamethrowing sinker specialist Jimmy Cordero averaged 97.5 mph on his heater and posted a 2.75 ERA and 60.4 percent grounder rate in 36 innings, but he doesn’t miss many bats and has a limited track record himself. The first season of veteran Kelvin Herrera’s two-year, $18MM contract yielded disastrous results.
Collectively, White Sox relievers ranked 14th in the Majors in ERA (4.33), but that’s largely a function of the quality results posted by Colome, Bummer, Marshall and Cordero. And there’s also reason to take that number with a grain of salt; the Chicago bullpen’s matching 4.69 FIP and xFIP ranked 18th and 21st among MLB teams while posting the fifth-highest walk rate (10.8 percent) and fifth-worst strikeout rate (21.7 percent) in all of baseball. White Sox relievers were tied with Royals relievers for the worst K-BB% in the Majors.
Unfortunately for the Sox, a fair bit of the relief market has been picked over. Will Smith, Drew Pomeranz, Chris Martin, Dellin Betances, Joe Smith, Blake Treinen and Sergio Romo, among others, are all off the board on new contracts (MLBTR Free Agent Tracker link). The top unsigned names include Will Harris, Steve Cishek, Pedro Strop, Craig Stammen and old friend Daniel Hudson. There are still some quality names, and the trade market presents myriad opportunities to explore (Ken Giles? Josh Hader?), but many of the most appealing options found homes while the South Siders zeroed in on lineup and rotation enhancements.
The good news for Sox fans is that the team still hasn’t even topped its previous record payroll, however. There isn’t a name among the best remaining relievers that the ChiSox can’t fit into their budget — and that’s all the more true if owner Jerry Reinsdorf is willing to push spending levels to new heights as he strives to emerge from the long-running rebuild, as one would expect. The White Sox’ offseason moves to date have already made the AL Central race much more interesting, and it seems a few more additions could be on the horizon.
MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The White Sox?
With the holiday season in full swing, this has been a fairly quiet week around Major League Baseball. If you’re a White Sox fan who happens to read MLBTR, though, we’ve had plenty of items relating to your favorite team over the past couple days. There has been Chicago’s one-year, $12MM agreement with first baseman/designated hitter Edwin Encarnacion, its reported interest (or lack thereof) in free-agent outfielder Yasiel Puig and Mark Polishuk’s piece on the extension candidacy of stud center field prospect Luis Robert.
Even before the White Sox committed to Encarnacion, the majority of voters MLBTR polled Tuesday declared they were having the best offseason of all AL teams that finished below .500 in 2019. The White Sox defeated the Angels, Blue Jays and Rangers – teams that are also enjoying impressive offseasons – for that honor. Before Encarnacion jumped aboard, the White Sox added catcher Yasmani Grandal and left-handers Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez in free agency, re-signed 1B/DH/franchise favorite Jose Abreu and acquired outfielder Nomar Mazara in a trade with the Rangers.
Now, with the bulk of the White Sox’s winter work likely done, it’s worth asking how good this team looks on paper. Undoubtedly, Chicago had a high hill to climb coming into the offseason. The club was then fresh off a 72-victory campaign, its 11th in a row without a playoff berth and the seventh straight season in which it lost more games than it won. Maybe the White Sox aren’t quite playoff-caliber now, but considering the moves general manager Rick Hahn & Co. have made in the past month and a half, they should at least push the .500 mark next year.
With Encarnacion, Grandal, Abreu, Mazara, third baseman Yoan Moncada, shortstop/reigning AL batting champion Tim Anderson and left fielder Eloy Jimenez comprising the majority of their offense, the White Sox should be a bear to deal with for opposing pitchers. That’s without considering the forthcoming promotions of Robert and second base prospect Nick Madrigal, who could emerge as regulars in the early going next season.
Likewise, there’s no shortage of promise in Chicago’s rotation. If all goes according to plan, Keuchel and Gonzalez will act as sturdy veterans, Lucas Giolito will continue blossoming into one of the game’s premier starters, Reynaldo Lopez, Michael Kopech and Dylan Cease will quickly realize their vast promise, and Carlos Rodon will return to form after Tommy John surgery. Odds are that everything won’t go right, but that’s still a lot of talent crammed into one starting staff.
If there’s one area Chicago hasn’t really addressed this winter, it’s the team’s bullpen. The White Sox did claim flamethrowing righty Tayron Guerrero off waivers from the Marlins, but they’re otherwise in line to return a familiar cast of characters at the end of games. That isn’t quite cause for panic, though, as their Aaron Bummer-led relief corps largely earned middle-of-the-pack marks last season.
Although we still have several weeks before pitchers and catchers report, this already looks like a much-improved White Sox roster. In an AL Central division with multiple teams in full rebuilds (the Royals and Tigers) and two quality clubs that could take steps back (the Twins and Indians), perhaps Chicago can break through as one of the majors’ surprise playoff contenders in 2020. What do you think?
(Poll link for app users)
Latest On Yasiel Puig, White Sox
The White Sox have reportedly been in talks with free-agent outfielder Yasiel Puig, but the team’s not pushing to sign him, according to Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. The two sides don’t have any negotiations taking place at present, Levine reports.
[RELATED: Extension Candidate – Luis Robert]
Puig (or any other high-profile free-agent corner outfielder) looked like a logical match for the White Sox when the offseason began several weeks ago. But the White Sox have since made a few other additions to their lineup that could erase any possibility of landing another starting outfielder. Not only did they acquire corner OFer Nomar Mazara from the Rangers, but they also re-signed first baseman/designated hitter Jose Abreu to a three-year, $50MM contract and just agreed to add another 1B/DH, Edwin Encarnacion, on a one-year, $12MM pact.
With Mazara and Eloy Jimenez around as starting corner outfielders and the Abreu-Encarnacion-Yasmani Grandal trio likely to log plenty of time at DH, there may not be a place for Puig at those spots. That is, unless they can convince the right-handed Puig to work on the short side of a platoon with the lefty-swinging Mazara. It may be far-fetched to expect Puig to settle for that type of role, though.
Puig, who turned 29 this month, has been a regular since he debuted with the Dodgers in 2013. Although Puig went through a disappointing 2019 between Cincinnati and Cleveland, he’s still one of the most established hitters left in a constantly shrinking free-agent market. Puig, Nicholas Castellanos (another rumored White Sox target who may have to look elsewhere), Marcell Ozuna and Corey Dickerson appear to be the top remaining corner outfielders available. Considering the offseason moves the White Sox have already made to better their offense, it seems doubtful anyone from that group will end up in their uniform.
Extension Candidate: Luis Robert
Is there any prospect quite as exciting as a blue chip center fielder? White Sox fans have been eagerly awaiting the arrival of Luis Robert ever since he signed for a $26MM bonus with the team back in May 2017. It was a contract that put the Sox in the proverbial “penalty box” under the old international signing rules, yet the splurge seemed more than worthwhile given the Cuban outfielder’s potential.
Robert’s early progress was hampered by ankle and knee injuries, as well as a thumb sprain. But, with a clean bill of health in 2019, Robert set upon tearing up the minor leagues, hitting a cumulative .328/.376/.624 with 32 homers and 36 stolen bases (out of 47 steal attempts) over 551 plate appearances for three different White Sox affiliates. Robert moved from high-A Winston-Salem to Triple-A Charlotte by season’s end, and though he only has 47 games and 223 PA at the Triple-A level, his .974 OPS in Charlotte left little doubt that the 22-year-old Robert is ready for the majors.
White Sox GM Rick Hahn feels the same way, telling reporters in his end-of-year press conference that the Chicago front office didn’t see center field as an area of need this winter since Robert was slated to handle the position for much of the 2020 season. As to when Robert could make his debut, however, is still up in the air, leaving open the possibility that the Sox could erase all service-time concerns and lock him into the Opening Day outfield by simply inking Robert to an extension.
If this scenario sounds familiar, the White Sox did the exact same thing with another star prospect in Eloy Jimenez last spring. Before even appearing in a Major League game, Jimenez signed a six-year extension worth $43MM in guaranteed money, and could end up earning $75MM over an eight-year span if the contract’s two club options are exercised. The deal far exceeded the previous record extension for a player without any MLB experience, which was a six-year/$24MM guarantee for Scott Kingery from the Phillies prior to the 2018 season. (The Mariners and first base prospect Evan White also agreed to a six-year pact for $24MM in guaranteed salary this past November.)
Robert’s representatives are obviously likely to aim for an extension that will surpass Jimenez’s deal, with the argument that their client offers more future value. Like Jimenez, Robert is a top-five prospect in the eyes of MLB.com and Baseball America — which rank him third on their top-100 prospect rankings — while Baseball Prospectus’ midseason top 50 ranking placed him fourth. While Jimenez’s batting ability is renowned, however, evaluators aren’t certain if he’ll be able to offer much defensively as a corner outfielder, and a move to first base could be necessary even within a few seasons.
In Robert’s case, while there is some question as to whether he’ll stick as a center fielder over the long term, he certainly projects to play up the middle for at least the opening portion of his career, which only adds to his five-tool potential. His 30-30 season across the minors in 2019 indicated his power and speed, and BA and MLB.com rank his throwing arm in the 55-60 range on the 20-80 scouting scale. Robert’s plate discipline is perhaps still a work in progress since he only posted 28 walks against 129 strikeouts last season, though it isn’t unusual for any young player to deal with a lot of swing-and-miss early in his career. MLB.com’s scouting report cites Yoan Moncada as a possible comp, and Moncada significantly reduced his own strikeout problems (a league-high 217 in 2018 to 154 in 2019) with the help of Chicago’s hitting coaches.
Beyond the argument that Robert has the higher ceiling than Jimenez, Robert can also seek the higher deal since he has less incentive to sign an extension. Robert already has that $26MM, remember, so he has already banked one life-changing fortune from his baseball career. (Jimenez, by contrast, had “only” his initial $2.8MM signing bonus from the Cubs.) Unless the White Sox were to offer Robert something far above and beyond Jimenez’s contract, Robert might prefer to just bet on himself and see how his initial season or seasons progress before considering long-term deals.
Without an extension in place, the White Sox could keep Robert in the minors for at least the first few weeks of the season, or at least long enough to ensure that they’ll get a seventh year of control over his services. This would be the latest instance of a team manipulating a top prospect’s service time, and this entire practice has been put under the microscope this offseason now that Kris Bryant’s service time grievance is currently being examined by an arbitrator. While the arbitrator is widely expected to rule in the Cubs’ favor, a decision reducing Bryant’s remaining team control from two years to one would send many shockwaves around the baseball world, and impact how every club handles promoting its best minor leaguers in the future. As such, the White Sox might wait until the arbitrator’s ruling before fully diving into extension negotiations with Robert.
Beyond Jimenez, Hahn has extended several other promising White Sox players (i.e. Tim Anderson, Adam Eaton, Jose Quintana, Chris Sale) early in their careers over his seven-plus years as general manager. A potential Robert contract could be the most unique and, in fact, most expensive of the bunch, though it would mark the latest aggressive move in a winter that has already seen Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion, Dallas Keuchel, and Gio Gonzalez come to the South Side in free agency. Since the club’s rebuild is clearly over, making Chicago’s center fielder of the future into part of the present could be the next step in the lead-up to the most anticipated White Sox Opening Day in years.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
