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White Sox GM Hahn On Devers, Kopech

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We’re coming up on the three-year anniversary of the White Sox–Red Sox Chris Sale blockbuster. It’s tough to say either team regrets that deal at this point. Sale was instrumental in Boston’s 2018 World Series run and remains one’s of baseball’s best pitchers. Chicago, meanwhile, has reaped the benefits of a Yoán Moncada breakout season that saw him garner a down-ballot MVP vote. Michael Kopech, meanwhile, remains one of the sport’s most exciting young pitchers.

That pair (along with Luis Alexander Basabe and Victor Diaz) weren’t the only Boston farmhands the White Sox were targeting. At one point, Chicago asked for Rafael Devers, then a 20 year-old in High-A, Chicago general manager Rick Hahn tells David Laurila of Fangraphs. Suffice it to say, Boston has to feel good about rebuffing Devers’ potential inclusion, as he garnered even more MVP support than did Moncada after a breakout 2019 of his own. There’s no indication Devers talks ever got close, it should be noted, but it’s still an interesting counterfactual given the star player he has since become. Some more from the American League:

Yolmer Sanchez A Potential Non-Tender For The White Sox

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  • White Sox GM Rick Hahn attempted to temper expectations before projecting bloated win totals for his club in 2020, per the Chicago Tribune’s Paul Sullivan. It’s an exciting time nonetheless for those on the south side of Chicago, with high-end youngsters Nick Madrigal, Luis Robert, and Michael Kopech expected to establish themselves as big leaguers. They have money to spend on pitching or an outfielder, and a tough decision to make on newly-minted gold glover Yolmer Sanchez. Madrigal is likely to unseat Sanchez from his regular role at second, and with Sanchez due to make roughly $6.2MM through arbitration, he’s definitely a possible non-tender. The Sox love him from a character perspective and aren’t eager to kick him curbside, but even with his new hardware in tow, $6.2MM after a .252/.318/.321 season is probably a touch too rich for the ChiSox.

7 Players Reject Qualifying Offers

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The 4pm CT deadline has passed for free agents to accept or reject qualifying offers, and seven of the 10 players issued offers have officially turned them down.  An eighth free agent, Will Smith, rejected the Giants’ qualifying offer and left the free agent market even before the deadline passed, signing a three-year, $40MM deal with the Braves.  Jake Odorizzi of the Twins and Jose Abreu of the White Sox each accepted their team’s qualifying offers, and will now earn $17.8MM for the 2020 season.

Here are the seven players who rejected their former team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer….

There aren’t any surprises in that list, as there wasn’t doubt that Bumgarner, Cole, Donaldson, Rendon, Strasburg, and Wheeler would forego the one-year offer in search of a much richer, multi-year commitment.  There was perhaps a bit more uncertainty surrounding Ozuna and Smith, given that Ozuna was coming off a pair of good but unspectacular years in St. Louis and Smith could perhaps have been wary of how the QO would impact his market, given what happened to another closer in Craig Kimbrel last winter.

If anything, the only real surprise occurred on the acceptance side, as Odorizzi was seen as a candidate to receive a multi-year offer before he opted to remain in Minnesota in 2020.  Abreu, on the other hand, was widely expected to remain with the White Sox in some fashion, either via the QO or perhaps a multi-year extension.  It should be noted that Odorizzi and Abreu are still free to negotiate longer-term deals with their respective teams even after accepting the qualifying offer.

Teams that sign a QO-rejecting free agent will have to give up at least one draft pick and some amount of international bonus pool money as compensation.  (Click here for the list of what each individual team would have to forfeit to sign a QO free agent).  The Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, and Braves are each in the same tier of compensation pool, so if any of their QO free agents signs elsewhere, the six teams will receive a compensatory draft pick between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round of the 2020 draft, or roughly in the range of the 75th to 85th overall pick.  Atlanta, for instance, probably didn’t mind giving up their third-highest selection in the 2020 draft to sign Smith since the Braves have another pick coming back to their if Donaldson leaves for another club.

A total of 90 players have been issued qualifying offers since the QO system was introduced during the 2012-13 offseason, and Odorizzi and Abreu become the seventh and eighth players to accept the one-year pact.  Odorizzi and Abreu are now ineligible to receive a qualifying offer in any future trips into free agency, so both players won’t be tied to draft/international pool penalties if they hit the open market following the 2020 season.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand was the first to report that Donaldson turned down his QO, while ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan was the first to report on the other six names.

Jose Abreu Accepts Qualifying Offer From White Sox

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Jose Abreu will stay with the White Sox rather than test the free agent market, as ESPN.com’s Jeff Passan reports (Twitter link) that the first baseman has accepted the team’s one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer. The team has since announced that Abreu is indeed returning after accepting the QO.

Jose Abreu | Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports

Abreu stood out as the likeliest player to accept a qualifying offer given his age (33 in January), lack of defensive value and longstanding vocal desire to remain with the White Sox. The market for strict first base/DH type sluggers has deteriorated in recent years, and while some elite hitters (e.g. J.D. Martinez) have managed to take home lucrative multi-year deals in spite of that reality, Abreu is on the old side for a free agent and isn’t quite in that Martinez echelon of offensive output. There’s also a fairly limited number of contending clubs that could be reasonably expected to make competitive bids on a first baseman or designated hitter, which wouldn’t have done the veteran slugger any favors in seeking out a new organization.

That’s not to say that Abreu isn’t a decidedly above-average hitter. He’s fresh off a strong .284/.330/.503 batting line and 33 home runs in 2019. The ChiSox likely feel they can pencil him in for another strong average and 25-plus home runs, as he’s only failed to reach that mark in an injury-shortened 2018 campaign (when he still launched 22 long balls in just 128 games). Abreu has spent six seasons in the big leagues and been an above-average hitter in each of them.

Of course, it should be noted that those 2019 numbers from Abreu came at a time when offensive numbers were at a record high throughout the league. His batting line is clearly stout — but perhaps not to the extent many would think of upon hearing “33 home runs.” By measures like OPS+ and wRC+ which are adjusted based on a hitter’s home park and leaguewide context, Abreu’s 2019 checked in at 17 to 19 percent better output than that of a league-average hitter (117 wRC+, 119 OPS+). That’s a stark contract to Abreu’s utterly dominant rookie season, when he hit .317/.383/.581 and tied Mike Trout for the second-highest wRC+ in all of Major League Baseball.

But for the South Siders, Abreu’s value transcends his pure statistical output on the field. White Sox brass, like Abreu himself, has been vocal about its desire to keep the slugger for the long run due to the fact that he’s emerged as a clear leader in the team’s clubhouse and a integral part of the community on the south side of Chicago. The ChiSox surely valued him more than an outside organization would, and the club surely hopes that Abreu will remain woven into the fabric of the organization for years to come.

The question now, for both Abreu and the organization, is whether they’ll simply head into the 2020 season with the current one-year, $17.8MM arrangement or whether they’ll work out a multi-year deal that’ll keep Abreu around for a longer period while likely lowering his 2020 salary. Abreu was reported to be mulling a three-year offer just hours before the final decision on his qualifying offer was due, but it seems that he and his representatives at ISE Baseball didn’t feel the annual salary on that proposed contract was to their liking. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweets that the two sides are expected to continue discussing two- and three-year scenarios, so it’s certainly possible that today’s one-year agreement is torn up in favor of a lengthier pact at some point between now and Opening Day.

Jose Abreu Reportedly Weighing Multi-Year Offer From White Sox

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Jose Abreu and the White Sox have been in talks about a long-term deal, and there’s still a chance such a pact could be reached before today’s 4pm CT qualifying offer deadline.  As per 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine (Twitter link), Abreu is deciding between accepting the one-year, $17.8MM qualifying offer or inking a new three-year contract with Chicago.

Abreu has made no secret of his desire to remain with the White Sox, and there has also been quite a bit of mutual interest on the team’s side as well, with GM Rick Hahn often praising Abreu’s importance as a clubhouse leader, not to mention his strong performance on the field.  That performance, however, has taken a step backwards in 2018-19 — Abreu hit .301/.359/.524 over his first four seasons in the big leagues, though only .275/.328/.490 in 1246 plate appearances over the last two seasons.

Between this semi-decline and the fact that Abreu turns 33 in January, a three-year pact would be quite a healthy amount of security, especially given the diminished state of the first base/DH market in recent years.  Daniel Murphy’s two-year deal with the Rockies last winter was the only multi-year contract given to a player projected to spend a lot of time at first base (it should be noted that DJ LeMahieu ended up playing a lot of first base for the Yankees, though LeMahieu also only signed a two-year deal).  In fact, even a three-year commitment is a rarity no matter the position, as only 14 players total signed a free agent deal of three or more years last winter.

The Marlins are known to have interest in Abreu already, and other teams like the Brewers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Nationals, or Twins could also be in need of first base help.  But those clubs would all be required to surrender a draft pick (or two in Boston’s case, for surpassing the luxury tax threshold) and some international bonus pool money to sign Abreu if he turned down the qualifying offer and signed elsewhere.  The QO could therefore potentially be a draft on his market, as it has been for such sluggers as Kendrys Morales and Nelson Cruz in recent years.

Of course, it’s safe to assume that Chicago’s three-year offer has an average annual value of much less than $17.8MM per year.  Abreu could lock in a bigger single-season payday by accepting the qualifying offer now, and then he could potentially test free agency again next winter unencumbered since player are only eligible to receive one QO.  Accepting the qualifying offer now also wouldn’t prevent Abreu and his representatives from continuing to negotiate with the White Sox on a longer-term deal throughout the offseason.

Latest On Nicholas Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna

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There is little doubt that Nicholas Castellanos and Marcell Ozuna have the most earning power among free-agent outfielders. In MLBTR’s estimation, they’re the only outfielders who look like strong bets to even land $20MM guarantees this winter. We have Castellanos signing for $58MM over four years and Ozuna receiving a three-year, $45MM contract.

Compared to Ozuna, Castellanos has two obvious factors working in his favor: He’s younger (Castellanos will turn 28 in March, while Ozuna’s 29th birthday was on Tuesday) and there’s no qualifying offer weighing him down. The Cardinals, Ozuna’s most recent team, hit him with a $17.8MM QO aftter the season. Assuming he rejects it by Thursday’s deadline, which looks likely, Ozuna’s next club would have to surrender draft compensation to sign him. As for Castellanos, he was part of a trade during the 2019 campaign, going from the Tigers to the Cubs, so he was ineligible to receive a QO this offseason.

Regardless of whom you prefer, both Castellanos and Ozuna figure to draw plenty of interest now that the offseason is underway. The Reds are one team that seems to like both: Already known to have Ozuna on their radar, they’re also eyeing Castellanos, Jon Morosi of MLB.com reports. Either would give the playoff-desperate Reds a much-needed established option in the corner outfield, where the talented but largely unproven Jesse Winker and Aristides Aquino look like their best choices at the moment.

The Reds and Cardinals are two of at least a half-dozen teams open to a deal with Ozuna, according to the St. Louis Post-Dispatch’s Derrick Goold, who also names the White Sox and Rangers among the intrigued clubs. The White Sox’s interest isn’t remotely surprising. After all, they’re trying to transition from rebuilding to contending, but doing so will be difficult without significantly improving an outfield that finished dead last in the majors in fWAR (0.9) in 2019, when rookie Eloy Jimenez was their lone bright spot in the grass.

Likewise, the Rangers have one immensely valuable outfield building block (Joey Gallo), but it’s otherwise up in the air who will comprise the unit with him in 2020. Hunter Pence is a free agent (and more of.a designated hitter nowadays); Shin-Soo Choo’s more cut out for a DH role; Nomar Mazara has disappointed and may not even be a Ranger in 2020; Willie Calhoun and Danny Santana don’t have set positions; and Delino DeShields is coming off yet another rough offensive season. All that said, there’s room for Texas to make at least one notable addition in the outfield, and with the team set to christen a new stadium in 2020, perhaps Ozuna will end up as one of its buzzworthy pickups.

White Sox Notes: Rotation, Free Agency, Trade Market

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The White Sox went hard after Manny Machado last year and came up empty. But they’re back after the market with an even stronger mandate to improve this time around. Club president Kenny Williams said as much in brief comments to reporters, including Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). What started as a cliche resulted in a promise of something greater from Williams. “We’re here to do business as usual,” he said before catching himself. “Well, not usual. More than usual.”

So what’s on tap for the South Siders? Pitching, among other things. GM Rick Hahn says he’s looking for two new rotation pieces this winter, as Van Schouwen tweets. Carlos Rodon underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year, while uber-prospect Michael Kopech will be returning from his own Tommy John procedure (performed late in the 2018 season). The White Sox have Lucas Giolito, Dylan Cease and Reynaldo Lopez as rotation options in addition to the returning Kopech, Carson Fulmer and Dylan Covey. Hahn was unsurprisingly not worried about the potential to eventually have more arms than rotation spots.

Here’s more on the South Siders…

  • Despite Williams’ vow to be more active, Hahn made clear that the Sox aren’t aiming for the dubious honor of “winning the offseason” (subscription link via James Fegan of The Athletic). “You know, we’ve taken home the offseason champion belt a few times,” said Hahn. “…In reality, none of that matters come September if we’re not in the thick of things.” Hahn addressed last winter’s failed pursuit of Manny Machado as well, noting that while the organization would rather have “converted” in its courtship of Machado, the public nature of the pursuit was also in some ways a “response to the general narrative that we weren’t legitimate players for such talent.”
  • Hahn isn’t the only one who views the White Sox as a viable landing spot for premium free agents. Scott Boras told reporters at the GM Meetings today that he agreed with Hahn’s assessment of the team’s situation (link via Van Schouwen). “They have a lot of great young talent,” said Boras. “It’s a great city. Certainly players look at the White Sox in a very different way than they did two years ago, no question.”
  • The ChiSox have a lengthy offseason wish list, of course, and they’re not likely to do all of their shopping on the free-agent market alone. Trades will surely be a part of the winter calculus, though Hahn downplayed the possibility of adding any pieces who would be a one-year rental before reaching free agency next winter (Twitter link via Fegan). Hahn was “resistant” to parting with notable young assets for such pieces. While the likes of Mookie Betts, Robbie Ray, Ken Giles and perhaps old friend Jose Quintana could all conceivably see their names kicked around the rumor mill this winter, it doesn’t sound as though the White Sox are a particularly likely landing spot for that type of veteran.

White Sox Name Scott Coolbaugh Assistant Hitting Coach

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  • Scott Coolbaugh is the White Sox’s new assistant hitting coach, the club announced. Coolbaugh was the Orioles’ hitting coach from 2015-18 and the Dodgers’ Triple-A hitting coach this season. He’ll team with White Sox new HC Frank Menechino in his new role.

Draft Compensation For 8 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

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Eight teams issued qualifying offers this year to ten players, with the Nationals and Giants handing out two apiece. Teams issuing the $17.8MM offer must be comfortable with the receiving player accepting, as it isn’t possible to trade such a player (absent consent) until the middle of the season. But in most cases, the offer is given with the expectation it will be declined, thus allowing the issuing team to receive a compensatory draft selection if the player signs with a new club.

As with draft forfeitures, draft compensation is largely tied to the financial status of the team losing the player. And in 2019, seven of the eight teams that issued qualifying offers fall into the same bucket: teams that neither exceeded the luxury threshold nor received revenue-sharing benefits. This applies to the Astros, Nationals, Giants, Mets, Cardinals, White Sox and Braves. In such cases, the default compensation for losing a qualified free agent is applied.

In other words, if any of Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Anthony Rendon, Madison Bumgarner, Will Smith, Zack Wheeler, Marcell Ozuna, Jose Abreu or Josh Donaldson signs with a new club, their former team will receive a compensatory pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the 2020 draft. Those selections would likely fall in the upper 70s and low 80s. Slot values in that range of the 2019 draft checked in between $730K and $700K. The Nationals and Giants, then, could add a pair of Top 100 picks and roughly $1.5MM worth of additional pool money each if they lose both of their qualified free agents.

The lone team that stands to gain a potential pick at the end of the first round would be the Twins, who issued a qualifying offer to Jake Odorizzi. Minnesota is a revenue-sharing recipient that did not exceed the luxury threshold, thus entitling the Twins to the highest level of free-agent compensation possible … if Odorizzi signs for a guaranteed $50MM or more. If Odorizzi’s total guarantees are $49.9MM or lower, the Twins would receive the same level of pick as the other seven teams who issued qualifying offers: between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3.

Of course, if any of the players who received qualifying offers either accept the offer or re-sign with their 2019 clubs on a new multi-year deal, no draft compensation will be awarded to that team at all.

Multiple Teams Pursuing Zack Wheeler At Outset Of Free Agency

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7:33pm: The Mets also remain interested in exploring a multi-year arrangement with Wheeler, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). It’s not evident how serious that possibility is — let alone whether there’s any potential for a pact to come together before Wheeler formally reaches the open market.

We’ve seen plenty of on-again/off-again chatter of a deal with Wheeler over recent months. When the Mets acquired Marcus Stroman, it was generally supposed that the club was going to move on from Wheeler, though the door stayed open when he wasn’t dealt over the summer. With obvious budgetary restrains and other needs, it still feels like a longshot.

Meanwhile, those prior trade talks also came up in reporting today. Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets that the Mets spoke with teams right up until the deadline passed, with the Astros pushing hardest and the Yankees, Rays, and Athletics also involved.

That’s mostly of historical interest, though it could offer some clues for free agency. Indeed, the Houston organization is already engaged with Wheeler’s reps, per Heyman (via Twitter). The ’Stros talked shop with Jet Sports today. We can only presume that the outfit’s major free agent starter came up in conversation, among other things.

2:29pm: Zack Wheeler technically has another three days to accept or reject his $17.8MM qualifying offer from the Mets, but there’s never been a realistic scenario in which he takes the one-year deal. The right-hander is widely considered to be among the four best pitchers in free agency this winter — No. 3 behind Gerrit Cole and Stephen Strasburg, by many accounts — and should have little trouble cashing in on a lucrative multi-year pact. To that end, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports that the Angels, Padres and White Sox are among the teams that have shown early interest in Wheeler. Other clubs have surely checked in already and will continue to do so, of course.

Wheeler, 29, has come all the way back from a lengthy absence stemming from 2015 Tommy John surgery. He’s made 60 starts over the past two seasons and saw his fastball velocity tick up to a career-high 96.7 mph average in 2019 — the second-hardest mark of any free-agent starter on the market (behind Cole).

Wheeler had a rough handful of starts at the beginning of each of the past two seasons, but over his past 55 starts combined, he’s worked to a 3.47 ERA (3.27 FIP) with 9.0 K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 0.82 HR/9 and a 43.1 percent ground-ball rate in 349 2/3 innings. Beyond the high-end velocity, Wheeler possesses above-average spin on his heater and curveball, and he’s excelled in terms of minimizing hard contact against him (90th percentile average exit-velocity among MLB starters, per Statcast).

Each of the three listed teams is a natural fit for Wheeler, though that’s true of the majority of rotation-hungry teams in the league. While the likes of Cole and Strasburg will be wholly ruled out by many clubs due to their expected $30MM+ annual salaries and over the next half decade-plus, Wheeler is quite likely someone most teams will view as affordable — even if he’s at the top end of their budget. The New York Post’s Joel Sherman quotes one team executive expressing a similar sentiment, calling Wheeler the best arm of the market’s second tier (beyond Cole and Strasburg) and adding “and everyone pretty much will believe they could afford him.”

Beyond the listed teams in Morosi’s report, it’d be a surprise if the Phillies, Twins, Braves, Yankees, Rangers, Nationals (if Strasburg departs), Dodgers, Blue Jays and others aren’t in play for the righty. Wheeler could draw the most widespread interest of any free agent on the market this winter and will probably be connected to a dozen or more additional teams between now and the time he finally puts pen to paper.

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