Poll: Who Will Be The NL’s Second Wild Card Team?
The Giants and Dodgers have both booked their tickets to the 2021 playoffs, though it remains to be seen which club will be NL West champions and which will have to walk the one-game tightrope that is the wild card game. While the identity of the first NL wild card entry is an either/or situation, the battle for that second wild card slot is still completely wide-open with less than three weeks remaining in the regular season.
The Cardinals held a one-game lead in the standings heading into today’s action, and since the Cards aren’t playing today, they’ll still retain at least a half-game edge when they resume play tomorrow in a crucial three-game series against the Padres. St. Louis wasn’t even a .500 team (53-55) on August 5, but the team has since gone 23-14 to re-establish itself as a contender. Both Paul Goldschmidt and Tyler O’Neill have been on fire at the plate since that August 5 date, while Adam Wainwright has continued to turn back the clock with an excellent season. The Cardinals were criticized for a lack of big moves at the trade deadline, though new additions Jon Lester and J.A. Happ have been solid enough to help stabilize the rotation. Following the three games with San Diego, the Cardinals’ remaining schedule is entirely against the Brewers and Cubs.
The Padres enter that pivotal St. Louis series going in the opposite direction. For much of the season, it looked like both NL wild card slots would come from the West division, as San Diego battled alongside the Giants and Dodgers for supremacy. However, San Diego’s 22-30 record since the All-Star break has left the Padres battling just to get into the postseason. It has been more or less a team-wide funk over those 52 games, as the Padres rank 24th in baseball in both wRC+ (92) and pitching fWAR (2.5) in the second half, though the rotation at least has the excuse of multiple injuries. It doesn’t help that the Padres also have a very tough remaining schedule — all of their remaining games are against the Cardinals, Giants, Dodgers, and Braves.
Even after today’s 1-0 victory over the Pirates, the Reds still have just five wins in their last 17 games, stumbling back in the standings after a nice surge in late July and early August. Speaking of scheduling, Cincinnati hasn’t done well to take advantage of some weaker opponents, as that 17-game window has included losing series to such weaker opponents as the Marlins, Cubs, Tigers, and Pirates (and a 2-4 record against the Cardinals). With 10 remaining games against the Pirates and Nationals, the Reds’ schedule still offers plenty of opportunity to bank wins, and the impending return of Jesse Winker should be a major boost to the Cincinnati lineup.
The Phillies still have a shot at the NL East even if they can’t capture the wild card, but after going 2-6 in their last eight games, the bottom line is that Philadelphia needs to get hot in a hurry. The Phils begin a three-game set against the Mets tomorrow and face the Braves in a three-game series at the end of September, but the schedule is otherwise not difficult on paper — 10 games against the Orioles, Pirates, and Marlins. While the bullpen and the back of the rotation continue to be an issue for the Phillies, MVP candidate Bryce Harper is doing his best to try and carry this inconsistent team into the playoffs.
The old “Miracle Mets” nickname might need to be dusted off if 72-75 New York can somehow squeak into the playoffs as either a wild card or as the NL East champions. The Mets are five games out of the division lead and 5.5 games out of the wild card entering today, leaving them with essentially no margin for error the rest of the way. Losing this series with the Phillies might all but officially end the Mets’ chances, but nine games against the Braves, Brewers, and Red Sox still loom on the upcoming schedule.
Just to cover our bases, the NL East-leading Braves will also be included in the poll just in case the Phillies or Mets do steal the division. (Though one would imagine that in that scenario, the Braves would have to slump badly enough to take them out of wild card contention as well.) Following a scorching hot 16-2 stretch in August, Atlanta is only 8-12 over its last 20 games, which is just enough to make things interesting in September. The Braves end their season with six games against the Phillies and Mets, and also have a ten-game road trip featuring six games against the Padres and Giants sandwiched around a four-game set with the cellar-dwelling Diamondbacks.
Who do you think will capture that second wild card slot? (Link to poll for app users)
Who will be the second NL wild card team?
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Cardinals 55% (7,461)
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Padres 17% (2,363)
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Reds 16% (2,209)
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Phillies 5% (671)
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Braves 4% (494)
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Mets 3% (434)
Total votes: 13,632
Injury Notes: Winker, Brantley, Archer, Brogdon
Reds All-Star outfielder Jesse Winker began a rehab assignment with Triple-A Louisville on Tuesday. He’s played there each of the past two nights and will start for the Bats again this evening but could return to the big league club as soon as tomorrow, manager David Bell told reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of the Athletic). Cincinnati begins a difficult three-game set with the Dodgers this weekend.
Winker has been one of the game’s best hitters this season, following up on a fantastic shortened 2020 campaign with the best numbers of his career. Across 481 plate appearances, Winker owns a .307/.395/.560 line with 24 home runs. Even after accounting for Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly home ballpark, that offensive output checks in 52 percentage points above the league average by measure of wRC+, a mark that trails only Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bryce Harper, Fernando Tatís Jr. and Juan Soto among players with more than 400 trips to the plate. Reinstalling that kind of impact bat into the order would be huge for a Reds’ team that enters play today one and a half games back of the division-rival Cardinals for the National League’s final playoff spot (with the Padres also half a game up on them in the standings).
Some other injury situations for contending clubs around the league:
- The Astros placed Michael Brantley on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 12, last night because of right knee soreness. The club didn’t provide any sort of timetable for his return, but there’s no indication it’s anything more than a precautionary absence. Houston holds a commanding seven game lead in the AL West thanks to recent scuffles by the A’s and Mariners, so there’s no reason to push one of their top performers before the start of the postseason. The ever-consistent Brantley is having another very good year, hitting .315/.367/.441 in 493 plate appearances.
- Rays right-hander Chris Archer may not make it back to the field in 2021, writes Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The 32-year-old, who returned to Tampa Bay on a one-year deal worth $6.5MM this offseason, has been slowed by hip troubles in recent weeks and is seeking outside opinions on the matter before determining a course of treatment. Once the Rays’ top starter, Archer came back to Tropicana Field in hopes of revitalizing his career following a 2020 thoracic outlet surgery. He’s been limited to just 19 2/3 innings, however, due to a forearm injury early in the season and the recent hip troubles that have surfaced.
- The Phillies placed reliever Connor Brogdon on the 10-day injured list due to a right groin strain yesterday. He “probably” won’t return this season, writes Matt Gelb of the Athletic. Brogdon has been one of the more reliable arms in a shaky Philly bullpen, tossing 55 frames of 3.60 ERA ball. The right-hander hasn’t missed bats at the huge level he flashed in a small sample last season, but he’s thrown strikes and induced grounders at a slightly above-average rate. Brogdon has worked mostly in medium-leverage situations this season, but his loss further thins a relief corps that leads baseball with 32 blown saves. Those bullpen woes are perhaps the biggest reason the Phils enter play today three and a half games behind the Braves in the NL East and three games back in the Wild Card hunt.
Reds Designate Brad Brach For Assignment
The Reds announced Monday that they’ve designated veteran right-handed reliever Brad Brach for assignment in order to open a spot on the roster for infielder Kyle Farmer, who has been reinstated from the paternity list.
Brach, 35, joined the Reds earlier this year on a minor league pact and got out to a brilliant start with his new club. Through his first 20 innings in Cincinnati, Brach pitched to a 2.25 ERA with a strong 28.6 percent strikeout rate and a hefty 54.9 percent ground-ball rate. His 10.7 percent walk rate was a bit worse than league average but far from egregious.
It’s been a swift decline for Brach since that time, however. Over his past 15 appearances he’s managed only 10 innings and yielded 16 earned runs on 17 hits and nine walks with nine strikeouts (16.4 percent strikeout and walk rate alike). Brach missed nearly a month with a shoulder impingement along the way, which surely played no small part in his downfall after that hot start.
Brach was one of the game’s steadier setup men during his 2012-18 peak with the Padres and the Orioles. In 449 innings during that time, he logged a 3.05 ERA, fanned more than a quarter of the batters he faced (at a time when the league-wide strikeout rate was lower than it presently is) and averaged fewer than a homer allowed per nine innings pitched (0.92 HR/9) — no small feat given that five of those seasons were spent calling Oriole Park at Camden Yards his home stadium.
Brach has since spent time with the Cubs, Mets and Reds — in addition to a minor league deal with the Royals this past spring. He pitched quite well down the stretch for the ’19 Mets and parlayed that into a 2020 return to Queens, but he was hit hard in 12 1/3 innings last year. The consistency he once enjoyed has begun to elude him, but Brach’s work prior to the shoulder injury this season suggests he’s still a capable reliever when he’s right.
The Reds will place Brach on outright waivers or release waivers in the coming days, and any club will be able to claim him for the final few weeks of the regular season. He’s a free agent at the end of the year.
NL Notes: Brewers, Tellez, Naquin, Smith
Corbin Burnes and Josh Hader combined on Major League Baseball’s record-setting ninth official no-hitter of the season, as the Brewers recorded a 3-0 victory over the Indians. Burnes struck out 14 Cleveland batters over eight dominant innings, though since Burnes amassed 115 pitches, Hader was brought in to finish things off with a perfect ninth inning. It was the second no-hitter in Brewers franchise history, since Juan Nieves’ gem on April 15, 1987.
Baseball’s “Year Of The No-Hitter” hasn’t been kind to the Indians, who have now set a record by being no-hit three times in a single season. Zach Plesac has been the Tribe’s starting pitcher for all three of those games, and Plesac matches Jim Perry as the only hurler in baseball history to be on the mound opposite three no-hitters in his career (let alone in a single season).
The latest from around the senior circuit…
- It wasn’t a perfect night for the Brewers, as first baseman Rowdy Tellez left the game prior to the bottom of the second inning due to a knee injury. Manager Craig Counsell told reporters (including Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel) that Tellez has been bothered by the nagging injury for some time, and he will undergo an MRI tomorrow to determine the extent of the problem. Acquired in a trade with the Blue Jays in early July, Tellez hit .265/.325/.464 with seven home runs over his first 166 plate appearances in a Milwaukee uniform. Tellez has become the Brew Crew’s top first base option, though if he has to miss time on the injured list, the team can turn to a combination of Daniel Vogelbach, Eduardo Escobar, and Jace Peterson at first base.
- A sixth-inning collision between Reds teammates Tyler Naquin and Jose Barrero resulted in Naquin leaving the game with bruised ribs. Naquin and Barrero were both in pursuit of a short fly ball from the Cardinals’ Dylan Carlson, but the ball eluded the duo in painful fashion, resulting in an RBI double for Carlson. In positive news, Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic) that there weren’t any concerns that either Naquin or Barrero suffered a concussion. The Reds don’t play on Monday, so it seems likely that Naquin will get two full days off to recuperate, and it remains to be seen if the injured list will ultimately be required.
- Caleb Smith lost the appeal of his 10-game suspension, and began serving that suspension today. The Diamondbacks southpaw was hit with the 10-game ban after umpires discovered a foreign substance on his glove during an August 18 game. Smith strongly protested his ejection from the game and subsequent suspension, though his appeal didn’t result in a change of the league’s initial decision. Smith has a 5.04 ERA/4.68 SIERA over 105 innings this season, moving between Arizona’s rotation and bullpen amidst a lot of control problems.
Reds Sign Tommy Milone, Release Ender Inciarte
Catching up on a pair of minor league moves from late August, the Reds signed left-hander Tommy Milone to a minor league deal and released outfielder Ender Inciarte. According to MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon (Twitter link), Inciarte opted out of the minors contract he signed with the Reds in early August.
Milone has already pitched twice for Triple-A Louisville as the veteran looks to work his way back to the majors. Milone made it an 11th MLB campaign when he suited up for the Blue Jays earlier this season, tossing 14 innings and posting a 6.43 ERA. Shoulder inflammation then resulted in a trip to the 60-day injured list, and Toronto released Milone last month after he began a rehab assignment.
Should Milone appear in a big league game with the Reds, it will mark the 10th different team of a journeyman career for the 34-year-old. Working mostly as a starter over his career, Milone offers Cincinnati some depth as a potential fill-in starter or perhaps as a long reliever out of the bullpen. It has been some time since Milone has been a truly effective hurler, as he has been plagued by the home run ball. Since the start of the 2016 season, Milone has a 5.83 ERA over 308 2/3 innings, with an 18.4% home run rate over that stretch.
The Braves released Inciarte in late July, ending a six-year run in Atlanta that included the highs of a 2016 All-Star nod and three Gold Gloves, plus the lows of an offensive swoon. Inciarte’s defense declined and his already below-average bat completely cratered, resulting in only a .200/.267/.277 slash line in 220 plate appearances since the start of the 2020 season. Inciarte is in the final guaranteed season of the five-year, $30.525MM extension he signed with Atlanta back in December 2016, so any team that signs Inciarte and adds him to their active roster for the remainder of the season will only owe him the prorated portion of a minimum salary (with the Braves footing the rest of the money owed).
Reds Activate Brad Brach, Option Alejo Lopez
The Reds have activated right-handed pitcher Brad Brach from the injured list, per a team announcement. In a corresponding move, infielder Alejo Lopez has been optioned Triple-A.
Signed to a minor league deal May 6th, the Reds selected Brach’s contract May 21st. The righty went on to log 29 innings out of the Cincy bullpen, with an ERA of 5.59. Barring a strong finish, this would be Brach’s third consecutive season with an ERA north of 5.00, after seven solid seasons split between the Padres, Orioles and Braves.
Brach’s 24.1% strikeout rate on the year is close to league average, but command has been the issue for him of late. His 12.8% walk rate is well above the league-wide rate of 8.7%, though it’s at least an improvement over the ghastly 24.1% rate he put up in 2020.
Despite dealing with bullpen issues all year, the Reds find themselves holding down the second National League wild card spot, going into today’s games with a half game lead over the Padres. Brach figures to be used in low-leverage situations for the time being, with Mychal Givens, Michael Lorenzen, Lucas Sims and Amir Garrett covering the high-leverage spots.
Reds Notes: Castellanos, Winker, Brach, Senzel
Nick Castellanos figures to be one of the offseason’s most sought-after free agency commodities, as there doesn’t appear to be much doubt that the outfielder will opt out of the final two years and $34MM of his current Reds contract. Such talks, however, are to be saved for the offseason, as Castellanos told The Detroit News’ Chris McCosky and other reporters that he is only thinking about the Reds’ playoff race.
“Any speculation about free agency is nothing that’s come from my mouth,” Castellanos said. “Right now, the only thing that’s next for me is focusing on winning here. We have a chance to win here. I’m not going to squander that opportunity by thinking about something that’s after the season.”
Castellanos entered today’s action with 26 homers and a .321/.377/.578 slash line over 478 plate appearances, a performance that earned the first All-Star nod of his career. As he approaches his age-30 season, Castellanos looks well-positioned to land a much heftier deal than two years/$34MM, though playing for a winning team is his chief priority. The Reds will have to come up with a big offer to keep Castellanos in the fold, but their case of providing Castellanos with a winning environment will be bolstered if they can reach the postseason for the second consecutive year.
A healthy Jesse Winker would greatly help Cincinnati’s chances of landing the second NL wild card berth, as the slugger has been on the 10-day injured list since August 16 due to an intercostal strain. Reds manager David Bell told reporters (including MLB.com’s Mike Petraglia) that Winker could start a minor league rehab assignment next weekend, “on the very positive, optimistic end of things.” While there is clearly a lot of caution baked into Bell’s statement, he noted that Winker is “definitely progressing,” with an increased amount of baseball activity expected for this week.
Brad Brach, meanwhile, has already started a rehab assignment at Triple-A Louisville and is on pace to be back in Cincinnati’s bullpen sometime this week. Brach went on the 10-day IL on August 8 due to a right shoulder impingement, after posting a 5.59 ERA over his first 29 innings in a Reds uniform.
The outlook is much less clear for Nick Senzel, however. Bell told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon and other reporters that Senzel recently had a second opinion about his surgically-repaired left knee, and “It seems that it’s going to take a while for him to get back and healthy. I don’t know what that means for the rest of the season, but it didn’t sound like it was going to be any time real soon.”
Senzel underwent the arthroscopic procedure in late May and was supposed to miss only 4-6 weeks, though he was eventually moved to the 60-day IL. The Reds activated him in mid-August, only to send Senzel back to the IL after fluid was discovered in his knee. Senzel is currently rehabbing at the Reds’ Spring Training facility in Arizona, hoping to make a return and salvage something from what is unfortunately looking like a lost season. The second overall pick of the 2016 draft has been hampered by multiple injuries during his brief career, limiting him to 163 games (and a .246/.308/.396 slash line) and 616 PA since the start of the 2019 season.
Reds Select Delino DeShields Jr.
The Reds have selected the contract of outfielder Delino DeShields Jr., per a club announcement. They’ve also recalled infielder Alejo Lopez to fill the second of their two new roster spots under September expansion. Right-hander R.J. Alaniz is up from Triple-A Louisville as well, and he’ll serve as the 29th man for today’s doubleheader.
Cincinnati just acquired DeShields Jr. from the Red Sox yesterday in exchange for cash. He’s now in line to make his first big league appearance of the 2021 season — and to do so on a team where his father is the current first base coach.
The younger DeShields turned 29 last month and has split the 2021 campaign between the Triple-A affiliates for the Rangers and the Red Sox, where he’s batted a combined .252/.385/.366 in 381 plate appearances. DeShields has just 21 extra-base hits in that time — six homers, 13 doubles, two triples — but his speed has once again been on display; he’s swiped 21 bags in 24 attempts.
DeShields’ wheels have long been his calling card. The former No. 8 overall draft pick was the Rangers’ primary center fielder from 2015-19 and never hit more than six home runs in a big league season during that time, but he did swipe a combined 106 bases and leg out 17 triples in 539 games. DeShields’ average sprint speed, as measured by Statcast, ranked in the 97th percentile or better among MLB players each season from 2015-19. He “dropped” to the 90th percentile during his stint in Cleveland last year.
That blistering speed has also served DeShields well on the defensive side of the game. He’s tallied 13 Defensive Runs Saved over the past three seasons and, dating back to 2016, ranks 39th in all of baseball at 27 Outs Above Average, per Statcast (despite not logging a single inning of defense in the Majors this year). DeShields will give Cincinnati a late-game option to pinch-run or upgrade the defense in close games as they look to hang onto the second Wild Card spot in the National League. The Padres and Reds are currently in a tie for the second spot, with matching 71-62 records. The Cardinals and Phillies are both two and a half games back, while the Mets are five and a half games out.
Reds Acquire Delino DeShields Jr.
The Reds have acquired outfielder Delino DeShields Jr. in a trade with the Red Sox, as announced by both teams. Boston will receive cash considerations in return, and the Reds have assigned DeShields to their Triple-A affiliate.
Since DeShields wasn’t on Boston’s 40-man roster and was playing on a minor league contract, he was eligible to be dealt after the July 30 trade deadline. The Sox and Reds have each made similar deals this August — Cincinnati previously swapped Mallex Smith to the Blue Jays for cash, while Boston picked up right-hander Brad Peacock from the Indians just yesterday and added DeShields himself from the Rangers four weeks ago.
DeShields is still looking to appear in his first big league game of the 2021 season. The veteran was non-tendered by Cleveland last winter and signed back on with Texas on a minor league contract, though he didn’t receive a call-up from either the Rangers or the Red Sox. The expanded September rosters create some extra opportunity for DeShields to get a look from the Reds, especially since Jesse Winker and Nick Senzel are still on the injured list. There is also a family connection involved, as Delino DeShields Sr. is Cincinnati’s first base coach.
With Winker expected back in a couple of weeks, the Reds will have Winker and Nick Castellanos in the corner outfield, with DeShields perhaps serving as a right-handed hitting complement to Tyler Naquin and Shogo Akiyama in center field. Aristides Aquino and Max Schrock are also on Cincinnati’s roster, though they lack DeShields’ experience and speed. The latter skill could be potentially very useful for DeShields to earn pinch-running opportunities for the Reds down the stretch and potentially into the postseason.
DeShields is 21-for-24 in stolen base attempts at the Triple-A level this season, and he has hit .252/.385/.366 over a combined 381 plate appearances with the Rangers and Red Sox affiliates. While DeShields is best known for his fielding and baserunning, his offense has been much of a mixed bag, as he has hit only .246/.326/.340 over 2056 career PA in the majors.
Yankees Acquire Pitching Prospect Jason Parker From Reds To Complete Cessa/Wilson Trade
The Yankees announced they have acquired right-handed pitching prospect Jason Parker from the Reds. He is the player to be named later in last month’s trade that sent relievers Luis Cessa and Justin Wilson to Cincinnati.
Parker was Cincinnati’s 16th-round pick in 2019 out of North Carolina State University. He’s made his affiliated ball debut this season, working to a 4.05 ERA across 80 innings as a starter in Low-A. The 23-year-old has struck out a strong 27% of opposing hitters against an average 9.8% walk rate, albeit against generally younger competition. Parker was not ranked among the Reds’ top prospects at FanGraphs or Baseball America.
While the Yankees will add Parker as a flier to the lower levels of the organization, the bigger driver of the deal for New York at the time was creating immediate roster and payroll space to accommodate future deadline acquisitions. The Yankees would go on to add Joey Gallo, Joely Rodríguez, Anthony Rizzo and Andrew Heaney over the next few days. By including Cessa, the Yankees were able to incentivize the Reds to take on a little less than half of Wilson’s remaining salary, as well as his $2.3MM player option for next season. That was of particular import given the Yankees’ apparent insistence on narrowly ducking below the first luxury tax threshold.
For the Reds, picking up Cessa and Wilson (as well as Mychal Givens in a later deal with the Rockies) was part of a broader effort to remake a struggling bullpen. As a whole, the relief corps has continued to struggle in recent weeks, but Cessa and Wilson have both been stabilizing forces at the back end. Cessa has allowed four runs over 10 1/3 frames since the trade, while Wilson has worked 9 2/3 innings of two-run ball.