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Health Notes: Zimmermann, Nimmo, Marlins, Smith, Wood, Dozier

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Tigers right-hander Jordan Zimmermann, currently on the mend after suffering a UCL sprain, looks to be nearing his return, writes Chris McCosky of the Detroit News. On Thursday, Zimmermann threw 4 2/3 innings in a rehab start for Triple-A Toledo, coming away pleased with the 69 pitches he threw and declaring his readiness to rejoin the Major League rotation for his next start. Whether that will actually come to fruition is up to the Tigers’ brass, though manager Ron Gardenhire seemed hesitant to welcome back a pitcher whose limited workload could lead to more bullpen days, which the team is trying to avoid. Regardless, the 33-year-old’s return looks to be just around the corner, certainly a promising development for a team that has had to patch together a starting staff after withstanding injuries to four-fifths of its Opening Day rotation.

Here are the latest updates on other injuries from around baseball…

  • Mets outfielder Brandon Nimmo is going to consult more specialists about the bulging disc in his neck, tweets Tim Healey of Newsday. Nimmo has been sidelined with that same injury since May 20, and the latest is a troubling development for an organization that has been maligned for its handling of players’ injuries. At this time, there is still no timeline for when Nimmo might be cleared to return.
  • Marlins left-hander Caleb Smith has been cleared to begin a throwing program, tweets Joe Frisaro of MLB.com. Smith landed on the 10-day IL on June 7 thanks to inflammation in his left hip, but it doesn’t appear that the injury will keep him out much longer, as Smith is on track to return in late June. The 27-year-old southpaw has quietly emerged as a promising starter for the Marlins, having struck out 82 batters in 62 innings of work. Over the last two seasons in Miami, Smith has posted an impressive 3.83 ERA in 143 1/3 innings.
  • Hunter Dozier will spend the next three days rehabbing with the Royals’ Double-A affiliate, according to Jeffrey Flanagan of MLB.com, who adds that Dozier will later join Triple-A Omaha after the birth of his child. The next step following that is to work his way back to the MLB club, which is good news for the Royals, who originally tabbed Dozier to return in late June. It looks like that timeline is still a realistic target for the third baseman, who has emerged as one of Kansas City’s few untouchable pieces and an All-Star candidate in the American League.
  • Another promising update for the Reds, with left-hander Alex Wood nearing a rehab assignment, per C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic, who tweets that the southpaw has a live BP session on Tuesday, which could lead to a minor-league rehab stint if all goes well. Wood, 28, has been dealing with lower back soreness that has put his Reds debut on hold. However, it looks as if that time could come around the All-Star break for the former Dodger.

Scooter Gennett To Begin Rehab Assignment Monday

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Reds second baseman Scooter Gennett will begin a rehab assignment at the High-A level Monday, Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. Barring setbacks, Gennett will have as many as 20 days to rehab.

This has been a long-awaited development for Gennett, who hasn’t played this season as a result of a right groin strain he suffered March 22. The injury has deprived the Reds of one of the game’s most valuable second basemen in recent years. Across 1,135 plate appearances from 2017-18, Gennett hit .303/.351/.508 with 50 home runs. He ranked third at his position in wRC+ (124) and sixth in fWAR (6.7) during that period.

Even with Gennett on the shelf for two-plus months, the Reds have gotten impressive production at the keystone. Offseason minor league signing Derek Dietrich has given the team a .236/.339/.559 line (136 wRC+) with 17 homers and 1.7 fWAR through 183 PA. The lefty-swinging Dietrich has been mired in a slump over the past couple weeks, however, and is only an option against right-handed pitchers even when he’s producing.

Although Gennett’s a fellow lefty hitter, the Reds should be able to deploy him and Dietrich in the same lineup fairly often. After all, one of Dietrich’s selling points is his defensive versatility. Aside from manning second, Dierich has totaled nine appearances each at first base and in left field this year.

Dick Williams On The Reds’ Deadline Approach

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The 30-37 Reds sit tied for last in the talent-rich NL Central, but the team’s white flag still hangs far from full mast, as Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer explores. President of Baseball Ops Dick Williams, who embarked on a full-scale rental shopping spree last offseason, acquiring Yasiel Puig, Alex Wood, the now-departed Matt Kemp, and Tanner Roark in win-now moves intended to revitalize a listless fanbase, explained his reasoning in a series of quotes for the piece.

“Our only focus right now is to get the most out of these guys, win and improve the roster where we can,” Williams said. “Right now, we’ve got Wood and Gennett as planned additions to the team. That’s two pretty good boosts. We still feel like this is very much an upwards trajectory. The potential is there for this team, this group of guys.”

Though it’s certainly conceivable that Scooter Gennett and Alex Wood, each still at least two weeks away from returning, with the latter perhaps closer to a month or more, could be the catalysts to jumpstart a sputtering Cincinnati club into gear and overcome the team’s long playoff odds (3.5%, per FanGraphs’ latest estimate), the rational outlook has the team entering preparations to sell, a fact of which Williams is surely aware. “There will be decisions to be made,” Williams noted, with the hard-to-ignore subtext hovering.

Puig, Wood, and Gennett entered the season as the team’s three most obvious trade chips, should the team’s course head south, though none of the trio now figures to net the return Cincy was surely banking on. Puig has endured easily the worst season of his career to this point, slashing just .222/.264/.393 (66 wRC+) while flashing little of his trademark ball-hawking in right field. Though Wood’s injury isn’t of the elbow, forearm, or shoulder variety, his history in that area is checkered, and contenders are unlikely to offer much for a rental mid-rotation starter just a week or so back from a three-month stint on the IL. Gennett’s value suffers from the same malaise as does Wood’s, though second-base offense around the league has slumped a bit this year, and his left-side thump may be just the plug a team with a gaping hole at the keystone needs.

Roark has thus far been excellent for the club, striking out batters at a career-best rate en route to a sterling 1.6 fWAR in 13 early-season starts. Deeper peripheral marks are unconvinced, though, as Roark’s 7.0% HR/FB is easily the lowest of his career, and his typically-high grounder rate has plummeted to far below league-average depths at 33.5%. His mid-to-back-end track record, too, likely won’t have teams champing at the bit to get a piece, especially with just two-plus months remaining on his deal at the time of a prospective deal.

The best course of action, then, may be for the Reds to consider perhaps-discounted extensions with at least a few of their free-agents-to-be. “We’re getting to that point where at least you want to put it on the table and start to see if there is mutual interest,” Williams said, while taking care to note that there’s “no urgency” on that front. Cincinnati did gift another offseason acquisition, Sonny Gray, with a longer-team deal of his own after he’d just finished the worst season of his career, so it’s possible this back-hatch pivot was a part of the Reds’ blueprint all along.

Who Will Win The NL Central?

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The National League Central looked like a three-team race at the beginning of the season, and not much has changed two months into the campaign. The Brewers, Cubs and Cardinals – the most hyped clubs in the division coming into the year – are at the top. After winning the division a year ago, the Brewers are 39-29, a half-game better than the Cubs. The Cardinals are a less impressive 33-33, five games back, though they’re certainly not out of the race. Meanwhile, the Reds and Pirates are eight and nine games behind, respectively. Neither looked likely to challenge for the NL Central at the outset of the season. They haven’t done anything to change anyone’s mind yet.

Led by reigning MVP right fielder Christian Yelich, brilliant free-agent acquisition Yasmani Grandal and offseason re-signing Mike Moustakas, the Brewers boast one of the majors’ most valuable groups of position players.  Their pitching hasn’t been as useful, on the other hand, as a rotation that was devoid of an ace entering the season has dealt with ineffectiveness and injuries throughout the year. However, the team still features elite reliever Josh Hader, with Jeremy Jeffress and Adrian Houser among those supporting him.

The Cubs’ position player mix has been even better than the Brewers’ this year, largely because Javier Baez, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras and David Bote have each offered strong production. Chicago’s rotation is probably better equipped, too, as Kyle Hendricks, Cole Hamels, Jose Quintana and Jon Lester are all proven commodities. Although, Yu Darvish hasn’t rebounded as hoped in his second year as a Cub. Darvish & Co. have handed off to a bullpen that hasn’t been lights-out this year, but it’s about to welcome all-time great closer Craig Kimbrel, whom the Cubs signed to a three-year, $43MM contract last week. Kimbrel would have been a match for the Brewers, making it all the more beneficial for the Cubs that they landed him (on paper, at least).

As for the Cardinals, they’ve fallen short of expectations after trading for ex-Diamondback Paul Goldschmidt, one of the premier position players in recent memory, and signing reliever Andrew Miller in the offseason. Both players have logged somewhat disappointing production to date, though Goldschmidt’s still an imposing presence and Miller has improved after a rocky start. Regardless, neither the Cardinals’ cast of hitters nor their relief corps is their most pressing issue. It’s their rotation, which hasn’t gotten high-end numbers from anyone. Jack Flaherty and Miles Mikolas have gone backward after impressive showings in 2018, while Dakota Hudson’s peripherals portend trouble. Adam Wainwright’s much closer to average than ace-like these days (and he’s now on the injured list with a hamstring issue), and nobody has nailed down the fifth spot in the Redbirds’ starting staff.

Considering the talent peppered throughout the Cardinals’ roster, it would be foolhardy to rule them out as potential division winners this season. Furthermore, with the trade deadline still yet to occur, St. Louis or anyone else in the division could put itself over the top with a shrewd acquisition(s) leading up to July 31. For now, though, the edge clearly belongs to the Cubs and the Brewers. FanGraphs currently projects the NL Central to finish in this order: Cubs (91-71), Brewers (87-75), Cardinals (83-79), Reds (78-84), Pirates (75-87). How do you expect it to shake out?

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MLB Draft Signings: 6/13/19

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Let’s catch up on the latest noteworthy draft signings, with the latest moves at the top of the post.  Click here for the full list of slot values and draft pool bonuses, and you can find prospect rankings and scouting reports from Baseball America’s Top 500, Fangraphs’ Top 200, MLB.com’s Top 200, and the Top 50 of ESPN.com’s Keith Law….

Latest Signings

  • The Twins reached a deal with second-rounder Matt Canterino, Darren Wolfson of 5 Eyewitness News tweets.  Canterino’s $1.1MM bonus is less than the $1,338,500 slot price associated with the 54th overall draft position.  Canterino was ranked 34th on Baseball America’s list of draft prospects, described as “one of the funkier pitchers in this year’s draft class” due to an unusual delivery that has proven to be consistently repeatable.  A right-hander out of Rice University, Canterino has a plus slider and a fastball that can hit 95mph though is most often thrown in the 90-91mph range.
  • The Mariners have signed second-round pick Brandon Williamson, MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports (via Twitter).  The TCU left-hander will get a $925K bonus, so Seattle will save some money given the 59th pick’s recommended $1,185,500 bonus price.  Both MLB.com (which ranked Williamson 83rd on their prospect list) and Baseball America (which had him 86th) see a bit of hidden-gem potential in Williamson, given his 6’5″ frame and a promising four-pitch array, though BA’s scouting report doesn’t feel he currently has a true plus pitch.
  • The Rays have agreed to a deal with second-rounder John Doxaxis, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reports (Twitter link).  Doxaxis signed for the full slot price of $1,129,700 recommended for the 61st overall pick, as per Callis.  A left-hander out of Texas A&M, Doxaxis received his highest prospect ranking from MLB.com, which rated him 44th and praised his ability to throw strikes with all three of his pitches.  With Doxasis now signed, the Rays have reached agreement with all four of their top draft picks.

Earlier Today

  • The Reds have agreed to an above-slot deal with second-round pick Rece Hinds, as per MLB.com’s Jim Callis.  Hinds will receive a $1,797,500 bonus, a nice bump up from the $1,507,600 slot price attached to the 49th overall pick.  Baseball America gave Hinds the highest ranking (39th) of any of the draft pundits, noting that the 18-year-old has a very strong throwing arm and “easily has 70-grade raw power currently, and you don’t have to look far to find scouts who will put 80-grade power on Hinds’ bat.”  There isn’t yet much overall hitting polish behind this power, however, and though Hinds was drafted as a shortstop, he’ll very likely be moved to third base or potentially the corner outfield in his future.
  • The Giants have agreed with fifth-rounder Garrett Frechette, MLB.com’s Jim Callis reports (Twitter link).   The deal will pay Frechette an $800K bonus, well over double the $371.6K slot value attached to the 146th overall pick.  It’s a sizable commitment to the high school outfield/first baseman, who had committed to attend San Diego State.  Frechette’s selection spot also outpaced his status in the eyes of pre-draft pundits, as MLB.com had him as the 196th-best prospect in the draft while Baseball America ranked him 214th.  This could be due to an injury-filled senior season for Frechette, who displayed some intriguing left-handed power potential when he did take the field.
  • The Cardinals have inked second-rounder Trejyn Fletcher to an above-slot deal, Callis reports. Fletcher’s pick (No. 58) had a $1.22MM slot value, but the Redbirds gave the high school outfielder $1.5MM. Callis and Mayo ranked Fletcher as the 87th-best player available entering the draft, owing to the 18-year-old’s “tantalizing combination of plus raw power, speed and arm strength.” If all goes well, Fletcher could evolve into a 20-20 center fielder in the majors, Callis and Mayo write, though they note his development will require a large amount of patience.

Health Notes: Angels, Gordon, Brewers, M. Kemp, Reds

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The Angels appear likely to activate left fielder Justin Upton sometime during their upcoming road trip from June 13-23, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register suggests. Upton, out all season because of a toe injury, began a rehab assignment last Friday. Meanwhile, injured shortstop Andrelton Simmons is “progressing quickly” and may start taking live at-bats soon, per Fletcher. Simmons hasn’t played since May 20 because of a Grade 3 left ankle sprain.

  • The Mariners activated second baseman Dee Gordon from the 10-day injured list Tuesday, the team announced. They optioned righty Matt Festa to Triple-A Tacoma in a corresponding move. Gordon’s back after missing 19 games with a right wrist contusion. The 31-year-old trade candidate is off to a .280/.309/.366 start (85 wRC+) with three home runs and 12 steals on 14 attempts across 177 plate appearances.
  • Brewers right-hander Jhoulys Chacin is on track to return during their series in San Diego, which runs from June 17-19, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel tweets. Chacin has been on the IL since June 2 with a lower back strain. Before that, he struggled to build on last season’s quality performance, logging 58 innings of 5.74 ERA/5.75 FIP ball with 6.83 K/9 and 4.5 BB/9.
  • Mets minor league outfielder Matt Kemp is dealing with lingering effects of a broken rib he suffered in April, according to Mike Puma of the New York Post. The Mets placed Kemp on the minor league IL as a result. The 34-year-old Kemp settled for a minors pact with the Mets on May 24, three weeks after Cincinnati released him. Kemp slashed a brutal .200/.210/.283 (23 wRC+) in 62 plate appearances with Cincy and hasn’t been much better as a member of the Mets’ Triple-A affiliate in Syracuse. So far, Kemp has hit .235/.278/.324 (52 wRC+) in 36 tries at the minors’ top level.
  • Reds righty reliever Robert Stephenson began a Triple-A rehab stint Tuesday, according to the team. Stephenson went to the IL on May 31 with a cervical strain. Once a well-regarded starting pitching prospect, Stephenson looked as if he was emerging as a credible reliever before his injury. In his first full-time look out of the bullpen, the 26-year-old has notched a 3.96 ERA/2.58 FIP with 12.6 K/9 and 3.6 BB/9 across 25 innings.

Free Agent Stock Watch: Yasiel Puig

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Looking to return to relevance and break their five-year playoff drought in 2019, the Reds operated aggressively on the trade market during the offseason. The club swung multiple noteworthy deals, including a swap with the Dodgers in which they netted outfielders Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp and left-hander Alex Wood. So far, though, that trade hasn’t delivered the on-field value the Reds wanted. They released Kemp in early May after he got off to a miserable start, while Wood hasn’t taken the field at all because of a back injury. That leaves Puig, who was perhaps the Reds’ biggest acquisition of the offseason. To this point, however, the 28-year-old has been a bust in Cincinnati.

Having signed a seven-year, $42MM contract with the Dodgers back in 2012, when he left Cuba for the majors, Puig already cashed in once earlier in his career. Although Puig was inconsistent in LA, he lived up to his pact as a member of the Dodgers, with whom he slashed .279/.353/.478 (129 wRC+) and totaled 108 home runs, 60 steals and 16.7 fWAR over 2,765 plate appearances from 2013-18.

The Reds were surely expecting Dodgers-esque production from Puig, but instead, he has managed a terrible .212/.256/.385 line with 11 HRs in 242 trips to the plate. His 63 wRC+ is eighth worst among 170 hitters who have amassed at least 200 PA.

Unfortunately for Puig and the Reds, his massive downturn in offensive production isn’t simply a byproduct of bad luck. Sure, Puig’s measly .230 batting average on balls in play is likely to climb, and his weighted on-base average (.270) sits far below his expected wOBA (.312). Nevertheless, Puig ranks around the middle or lower half of the league in xwOBA, expected batting average, expected slugging percentage and hard-hit rate, according to Statcast. The right-hander’s also walking at a career-worst rate, striking out more than ever, chasing way more pitches outside the zone, not making nearly enough contact and, for the first time, getting stymied by same-handed pitchers. Relative to last season (heatmaps via FanGraphs: 2018, 2019), righties have been operating less in the middle of the plate against Puig, who hasn’t been able to come up with an answer.

When Puig has put the bat on the ball this season, the majority of his connections have ended up in the air. However, while many players have benefited from elevating the ball more, the opposite has been true for Puig. He’s racking up far more flies and far fewer grounders than he ever has, but that isn’t a great approach if you’re not hitting the ball with authority. Puig’s exit velocity on flies and line drives has fallen from 93.7 mph to 91.7 since last year, while his mean FB distance has dropped from 328 feet to 316.

It’s clear Puig’s offensive game is suddenly rife with red flags, though he has remained a capable defender and base runner in Cincinnati. Since his MLB career began, Puig has logged 44 Defensive Runs Saved with a 12.5 Ultimate Zone Rating, including four and 1.3 in those categories as a right fielder this season. Meanwhile, even though his sprint speed has decreased, Puig has swiped nine bases on 11 attempts.

Although it’s nice that Puig can flash the leather and run the bases, his ability to produce at the plate has been his calling card thus far. And if Puig doesn’t rebound in that aspect soon, it’s going to further drive his trade value into the ground as the July 31 deadline approaches. Worsening matters for Puig, it could make it difficult for him to secure anything more than a one-year, prove-it deal upon reaching the open market in the winter. With Marcell Ozuna, Nicholas Castellanos, Avisail Garcia, Corey Dickerson and perhaps Kole Calhoun also among corner outfielders set to hit free agency, Puig will have serious competition off what could go down as a nightmarish platform season for him.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Reds, Nick Lodolo Agree To Terms

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The Reds have agreed to terms with first-rounder Nick Lodolo, per Jim Callis of MLB.com (Twitter link). He’ll receive the full $5,432,200 that accompanies his No. 7 overall slot.

Lodolo is a 6’6″, 202-pound lefty out of Texas Christian University who was a consensus Top 10 prospect headed into the 2019 draft. He posted dominant numbers this year, logging a 2.48 ERA with 11.5 K/9 against 1.5 BB/9 in a total of 15 starts and 98 innings. Fangraphs ranked him as the draft’s No. 7 prospect, while he ranked eighth at both Baseball America and MLB.com as well as 10th at ESPN.com.

Lodolo adds a polished, high-end pitching prospect to a Reds system at a time in which the organization has been looking to emerge from an ongoing rebuilding process. Baseball America called him a “high-probability Major Leaguer” that has above-average control and the potential for three plus pitches (fastball, slider, changeup), although each is considered to be more of an average offering at the moment. ESPN’s Keith Law gives him credit for “at least midrotation upside,” and Callis calls him the best pitching prospect in this year’s draft class.

If he’s a familiar name to baseball fans, it’s likely because Lodolo was drafted by the Pirates with the No. 41 overall pick back in 2016. Lodolo opted not to sign and instead pursued his college career. That type of risk doesn’t always pay off from a financial standpoint but certainly did in this case; the No. 41 overall pick back in 2016 came with a $1.576MM slot value.

Reds Acquire Tyler Jay From Twins

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The Reds have acquired left-hander Tyler Jay from the Twins, according to Roster Roundup. There’s no word on what the Twins received, but they presumably got a meager return for Jay.

The Twins used the sixth overall pick in the 2015 draft on Jay, who starred as a reliever at the University of Illinois. At the time Minnesota selected him, there was plenty of optimism Jay would continue to thrive in the majors as either a reliever or starter. But injuries – including to Jay’s shoulder and neck – have helped derail his career since he entered the professional ranks.

The 25-year-old Jay hasn’t yet ascended past the Double-A level, where he has pitched since 2017 and owns a 4.60 ERA with 7.6 K/9 and 4.1 BB/9 in 103 2/3 innings. While assessing the Twins’ prospects this past April, Eric Longenhagen and Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs wrote Jay remains “a multi-pitch lefty with average stuff, and that seems rosterable.” The Twins disagreed, even after all they invested in Jay, leaving the Reds to hope he’ll one day realize some of his vast potential in their uniform.

Health Notes: Reds, Wood, Cedeno, Diaz, Fletcher

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On Saturday, Reds southpaw Alex Wood threw a bullpen session for the first time since April, writes Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Wood has been dealing with lower back spasms since he was acquired in the same trade that sent Yasiel Puig and Matt Kemp to Cincinnati, and setbacks suffered in March and April led to the lefty being shut down for about a month. While there is no timetable for his return to an MLB field and his Reds debut, it’s promising that Wood is once again throwing and feeling well enough to move forward with his recovery. As Sheldon notes, Wood will still need to build up a foundation before he can return to the field, a process that likely includes several more bullpen sessions followed by facing live hitters, and finally a minor-league rehab assignment. Barring any further setbacks, completing those steps will allow Wood to join a Reds team that has actually fielded one of the National League’s best pitching staffs. To be sure, Wood, who has some experiencing working out of a bullpen role with the Dodgers, would represent a luxury for the last-place Reds even if there is not a spot for him in the starting rotation.

  • Cubs left-hander Xavier Cedeno, out since May 21 with left wrist inflammation, will begin a rehab assignment today with the Triple-A Iowa Cubs, according to Jordan Bastian of MLB.com. Cedeno, who also began the season on the injured list, has managed just two innings for the Cubs, largely functioning as a lefty specialist. While he’s yet to allow a run, the 32-year-old has walked three batters and has struck out just one. Cedeno was signed by the Cubs last winter to a one-year deal worth up to $900k.
  • Astros shortstop Aledmys Diaz, who is currently rehabbing from a left hamstring strain, has suffered a setback, according to Jake Kaplan of The Athletic. It’s unknown how long the setback will keep Diaz, who hasn’t played since May 26, on the shelf, but with Carlos Correa out of the lineup, the Astros would like to get Diaz healthy sooner than later. By and large, it’s been Myles Straw and Jack Mayfield seeing the most action at short with both Diaz and Correa sidelined, and while they have filled in capably, neither can match Diaz’s above-average .831 OPS.
  • The Angels’ David Fletcher was out of the lineup for the second consecutive game today due to left shoulder soreness, tweets Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com. However, he adds that manager Brad Ausmus said that a stint on the injured list looks unlikely at this time. It’s good to hear for an Angels team that has had to endure injuries to other infielders Zack Cozart and Andrelton Simmons, especially considering that Fletcher has arguably been the team’s second-best player this season.
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