NL Notes: Seager, Cabrera, Braves, Dickey
After going without him in the NLCS, the Dodgers have officially activated star shortstop Corey Seager for the World Series. Given his balky back, however, the team may look to him as a DH for the games played in Houston, as J.P. Hoornstra writes in the Orange County Register. Those interested in some reading in advance of the Fall Classic may also like to check out the Register’s Bill Plunkett’s piece on the analytics-driven organizations squaring off this year.
Here’s more from the National League:
- The Mets are “almost certain” to exercise their option over infielder Asdrubal Cabrera, according to a tweet from Marc Carig of Newsday. We have heard such indications previously, to be sure, though it’s fair to say there have been countervailing considerations as well. With much of the offseason planning likely already completed, though, the Mets seem largely to have decided upon a course. As I discussed about six weeks back, there’s a solid case to be made that Cabrera’s $8.5MM option will deliver greater value than the team could find by paying a $2MM buyout and pursuing an alternative. Most of MLBTR’s readers favored the Mets hanging onto Cabrera in the poll available at that link.
- A former Braves scout has written a letter to David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, in which he offers something of a different perspective on recently-resigned GM John Coppolella. The scout credited Coppolella for his respectful interactions with similarly situated employees, painting rather a different picture than some other accounts have. Of course, the letter does not seem to speak to any assessment of alleged international signing violations against Coppolella or others in the organization.
- With Atlanta parting ways with R.A. Dickey, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer considers whether the veteran knuckler could make sense for the Reds. Dickey has indicated that Cincinnati is on a very short list of cities he’d consider playing in, given its proximity to his home in Nashville. But Rosecrans also suggests the Reds would likely not be willing to pay Dickey in quite the same range that the Braves did. The contract he signed last winter guaranteed $8MM, though he earned every penny with 190 innings of 4.26 ERA ball. That made it seem likely that the Braves would bring him back, with the move perhaps hinting that Dickey was already determined to hang up his spikes. Still, if there is some possibility of Dickey carrying on, the Reds would likely be wise to explore a deal with him as a means of addressing the team’s dearth of established rotation pieces.
NL Notes: Callaway, Marlins, Peralta, Hickey
While the Mets had intended to conduct a second round, the team jumped at the chance to hire Mickey Callaway as manager after his first interview, Marc Carig of Newsday writes. He stressed a need to engage the team’s players as “human beings and individuals,” while GM Sandy Alderson cited a need to establish “rapport [and] empathy.” In other news relating to the hiring situation, Carig also notes (Twitter link) that the club interviewed Mark DeRosa before reaching its decision. The long-time big leaguer currently works for MLB Network; his candidacy had not previously been reported.
Here’s more from the National League:
- Trimming payroll down to a reported $90MM obviously represents a big challenge for the Marlins. The challenge is made all the more difficult, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald writes, by the state of the team’s rotation. With some paring of veteran assets seemingly all but inevitable, it seems likely that the team will look to bring back some new arms if at all possible. Of course, the organization will surely still be looking to rely on internal options to fill out the staff. A team source had some rather harsh words for two such candidates, telling Jackson that promising youngster Dillon Peters “needs to lose weight” and charging that the struggling Adam Conley fails to accept instruction and “thinks he has all the answers.” Neither of those two southpaws produced appealing results in 2017, though the former drew a ton of groundballs in his first 31 1/3 MLB frames (and was also quite good at Double-A) while the latter had quite a lot of success in the prior two seasons.
- The Reds‘ pitching staff has easily been the worst in baseball over the past two seasons, but there are certainly some useful pieces in place. MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon takes a look at one such pitcher, southpaw reliever Wandy Peralta. The 26-year-old was a pleasant surprise in his rookie campaign, working to a 3.76 ERA in 64 2/3 frames with 7.9 K/9 against 3.3 BB/9 to go with a 54.2% groundball rate. Peralta has a diverse slate of pitch offerings — a pair of big fastballs along with a slider and change — that he utilized nearly equally in 2017. Given the number of questions marks among Cincinnati hurlers, hopes are obviously high that Peralta will continue to cement his status as a solid bullpen asset.
- The pitching coach carousel seems to be a particular area to watch in the coaching ranks this offseason, with Jim Hickey among the notable names on the market. Per MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat, via Twitter, the former Rays pitching coach held a chat with the Cubs today. He has also already engaged with the Giants and Cardinals, she notes.
Elected Free Agency: Siegrist, Edgin, Hutchison, Locke, Bolsinger, Van Slyke, Maness
The indispensable Matt Eddy of Baseball America provides an overview of a vast number of players electing free agency following the 2017 season in his latest Minor Transactions roundup. Eddy largely focuses on players with big league service time (significant service time, in some cases) that were outrighted off the roster that are now hitting the open market for the first time. (Players with three-plus years of service that are not on the 40-man roster at season’s end can elect free agency, as can any player that has been outrighted on multiple occasions in his career.)
While the vast majority of these players seem likely to sign minor league pacts this winter — they did, after all, go unclaimed by 29 other teams on waivers — a number of them are still intriguing with recent success in their past and/or multiple years of arbitration eligibility remaining. Eddy’s rundown also contains a number of re-signed minor leaguers and released minor leaguers without big league experience as well as Arizona Fall League assignments on a per-team basis, so it’s well worth a full look.
We’ve updated our list of 2017-18 MLB free agents accordingly, and here are some of the new names now checking in on the list…
Depth options in the rotation
Josh Collmenter, Asher Wojciechowski, Drew Hutchison, Jeff Locke, Kyle Kendrick, Mike Bolsinger, Christian Bergman, David Holmberg
Collmenter is just two seasons removed from being the D-backs Opening Day starter but hasn’t had much success of late. Hutchison had solid Triple-A numbers and once looked like a long-term rotation piece in Toronto before Tommy John surgery. He can be controlled for another three seasons in arbitration. Locke was injured for most of an ugly first (and likely only) season in Miami, and Kendrick made just two starts for the Red Sox.
Wojciechowski (6.50 ERA in 62 1/3 innings with the Reds), Bolsinger (6.31 ERA in 41 1/3 innings with the Jays), Bergman (5.00 ERA in 54 innings with the Mariners) and Holmberg (4.68 ERA in 57 2/3 innings with the White Sox) all soaked up innings for injury-plagued pitching staffs. Bolsinger has had the most MLB experience of the bunch.
Corner Bats
Scott Van Slyke, Tyler Moore, Cody Asche, Conor Gillaspie, Jaff Decker
Van Slyke has long been a solid bat against left-handed pitching but appeared in just 29 games with the Dodgers and didn’t hit well with their Triple-A affiliate or with the Reds’ Triple-A affiliate. (He was included in the Tony Cingrani trade to balance out the financial side of the deal.) Moore, also a right-handed bat, showed power but struggled to get on base.
Once one of the Phillies’ top prospects, Asche hit well in Triple-A Charlotte but flopped in a brief stint with the ChiSox. Gillaspie was unable to replicate his 2016 rebound with the Giants, while Decker showed some on-base skills in the Majors and minors but didn’t hit much overall. (He can play center but hasn’t graded well there in the Majors.)
Utility Infielders
Ruben Tejada, Phil Gosselin, Dusty Coleman, Chase d’Arnaud
Each of the four can play all over the diamond, but none provided offensive value in 2017. Tejada has the most big league experience but hasn’t received much playing time since 2015 (and hasn’t performed well when he has gotten opportunities). Gosselin has a solid defensive reputation but a light bat through 551 MLB PAs. Coleman hit four homers in 71 PAs in his MLB debut this year but logged a .268 OBP. d’Arnaud saw his fair share of 2016 action with the Braves but has never produced much at the plate.
Bullpen options
Kevin Siegrist (L), Josh Edgin (L), Seth Maness, Kevin Quackenbush
Siegrist and Edgin are intriguing names for clubs in need of left-handed bullpen help. Both have recent success on their track records, though Edgin wasn’t as sharp in 2017 as he was prior to 2015 Tommy John surgery. Siegrist’s control eroded in 2017 as he missed time due to a back/spinal injury and tendinitis in his left forearm, but he was one of the Cardinals’ top setup options in both 2015 and 2016. Both lefties are controllable through 2019.
Maness drew headlines for returning from a torn UCL in roughly seven months thanks to an experimental new “primary repair” procedure, but while he stayed healthy in 2017, the results weren’t great in the Majors and especially not in Triple-A (6.13 ERA in 47 innings). Quackenbush was excellent as a rookie in 2014 and solid in 2015-16 before imploding in 2017 (7.86 ERA in 26 1/3 innings). He was better but not great in Triple-A (3.90 ERA, 7.8 K/9, 2.9 BB/9). Maness could be controlled through 2019, while Quackenbush would have three more years of control.
Offseason Outlook: Cincinnati Reds
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After a somewhat average first half, the Cincinnati Reds collapsed after the All-Star break and ultimately finished last in the NL Central. The result was a second consecutive 68-94 record and a fourth consecutive losing season. The organization will now need to answer some tough questions, including what they’ll do to improve a historically bad pitching staff, and whether or not they ought to try and sell off some established players like Billy Hamilton.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Joey Votto, 1B: $150MM through 2023
- Homer Bailey, SP: $44MM through 2019 ($25MM mutual option for 2020, $5MM buyout)
- Devin Mesoraco, $13.1MM through 2018
- Raisel Iglesias, $16.6MM through 2020 (Can opt into arbitration for next season)
- Tucker Barnhart, $15.5MM through 2021 ($7.5MM option for 2022, $500K buyout)
Arbitration Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLB Trade Rumors)
- Scooter Gennett (4.071) – $6.1MM
- Billy Hamilton (4.028) – $5.0MM
- Anthony DeSclafani (3.062) – $1.1MM
- Eugenio Suarez (3.061) – $4.4MM
- Michael Lorenzen (2.159) – $1.4MM
- Raisel Iglesias (2.154) – $2.8MM if he chooses to opt into arbitration. Otherwise, contract calls for $4.5MM in 2018, $5MM in 2019, and $5MM in 2020.
Free Agents
Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart; Cincinnati Reds Payroll Overview
With about $68.7MM tied up in payroll commitments for the upcoming season, along with $18MM in projected arbitration salaries, the Cincinnati Reds face limited retooling options for their 2018 roster. Unfortunately for Cincinnati fans, it seems as though the small-market Reds have more holes to fill on their roster than space in the budget. Top prospect Nick Senzel is likely to contribute at some point next season (according to comments made by GM Dick Williams), but he’d only fill a hole in the lineup left by Zack Cozart, who will either depart or become expensive to retain. Within a fiercely competitive division that includes four other teams pushing to contend, it’s unlikely that a few cheap patches will vault the Reds into contention within the NL Central.
Williams has stated that the team is interested in discussing a new deal with Cozart, but the Reds won’t be the only team vying for his services. The Rays, Royals, and Padres are all in need of a shortstop for the long-term. The Orioles could take a look as well, considering incumbent Tim Beckham‘s horrid September and relative uncertainty. There are plenty of teams that would be interested in using him at second base as well. His .297/.385/.548 slash line this past season and solid defense made Cozart the fourth-most valuable shortstop in baseball by fWAR. Even if the Reds are willing to shell out the cash needed to keep their All-Star shortstop, there’s still the chance he’d rather play with a more likely contender. If Cozart ends up elsewhere, former top prospect Jose Peraza seems like the best bet to take his place at short.
The first decision the Reds will need to make on Cozart this offseason will be whether or not to issue him a $17.4MM qualifying offer. The rules are different overall this season, but the implications for Cozart and the Reds would likely remain the same. Because the Reds received revenue sharing in 2017, they would gain a compensatory draft pick after the first round of the 2018 draft next June, if Cozart signs a contract with another team worth at least $50MM. The additional pick (and corresponding slot money) would be a great asset to the club’s rebuild. But for the Reds and their limited payroll space, $17.4MM could end up severely handcuffing them in a non-contending season. That salary, along with guaranteed contracts, arbitration projections and league minimum salaries for the rest of the roster, would push their payroll north of $111MM for 2018, which would fall just $4MM short of their 2015 club record payroll. Such a high payroll could hurt the organization’s capacity to fill other holes on the roster through free agency. With Peraza waiting as a shortstop option with some upside, there’s at least a small chance the Reds could decide not to take the risk of giving Cozart a QO.
Anthony DeSclafani and Brandon Finnegan should be healthy enough in time for spring training to join Luis Castillo and Homer Bailey in a rotation that struggled mightily last year; Reds starters allowed the most homers in baseball and finished with the second-highest ERA and walk rate. Robert Stephenson, Rookie Davis, Cody Reed, Tim Adleman, Amir Garrett and top prospect Tyler Mahle are internal options for the fifth spot in the rotation if the Reds don’t sign anyone. It seems highly unlikely that they’ll be involved in the bidding for a top-tier starter due to their limited payroll space. There’s a chance they could give a three- or four-year contract to a number two or three starter type, but even that seems like a stretch given the risks involved and the fact that they aren’t likely to make the playoffs in the near future. Instead, they might end up exploring veteran options like Jaime Garcia and Andrew Cashner who have some upside and could eat innings for Cincinnati on less expensive contracts.
Outside of Raisel Iglesias, the Reds’ bullpen is still a disaster. After being so bad that they literally set records in 2016, their relievers combined to post the fourth-worst ERA in the majors this past year. 16 relievers pitched at least ten innings for Cincinnati this season, and nobody outside of Iglesias contributed more than 0.50 Win Probability Added (WPA). They’re likely to sign a couple of veterans in free agency, but it’ll be like trying to cover a bullet wound with a band-aid. It’s likely that we’ll see the Reds once again churn through a large number of relievers in hopes that someone will develop into a reliable setup option. Michael Lorenzen will be worth watching; he showed some promise as a multi-inning reliever before collapsing to the tune of a 6.32 ERA in the second half.
Even the lineup isn’t a true strength. Cincinnati finished middle of the pack in most offensive categories, even while playing in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in baseball. Most of that lineup will be coming back, but it seems like the Reds will have to hope that high-pedigree hitters Peraza and Jesse Winker can take big steps forward. Even then, it’s not a sure bet that Scooter Gennett and Scott Schebler will be able to replicate their 2017 breakout performances. On-base engine Joey Votto will anchor the lineup, but they’d need a lot to break right around him in order to consistently keep up with the runs their pitching staff is likely to allow.
Should the Reds decide to double down on their rebuild, they do have some assets that could help them further strengthen their farm system. Billy Hamilton and Gennett become free agents after the 2019 season. Neither is likely to play October baseball with the Reds before then; many of Cincinnati’s best prospects are still at least two years away, and the money owed to Bailey won’t make things easy on their payroll during that time. I already wrote about a few potential trade partners for Hamilton. Finding a partner for Gennett wouldn’t be too difficult; he’s capable of playing second, third and left field and is coming off the best offensive season of his career (though his continued struggles against lefties could limit his market).
Iglesias is another piece who could bring back a significant haul… recent deals for high-end relievers like Andrew Miller, Aroldis Chapman and Ken Giles have all brought back top 100 prospects to the selling teams. Though Iglesias hasn’t yet established himself to the level of Miller or Chapman, it’s easy to see him fetching a return similar to that of Giles.
Breakout infielder Eugenio Suarez could fetch a good return as well. However, since Iglesias and Suarez are both under control for another three seasons, they’re less likely to be traded. Joey Votto could be a trade asset, but his contract has a full no-trade clause, and he’s plainly stated that he doesn’t plan on waiving it.
There’s certainly no guarantee that the Reds will end up trading away Hamilton or Gennett. But if they do, they could look to fill holes in the center and the infield. Phil Ervin and Dilson Herrera are next on the depth chart respectively, but there are some free agent fill-in options as well. Jarrod Dyson, Cameron Maybin and Rajai Davis are examples of free agent center fielders that might get a close look should Hamilton change uniforms. There are a few free agent veterans that could be candidates to fill in as a stopgap at second base until Senzel is ready to take a spot on the big league roster if the team decides to move Gennett, but it seems more likely they would look at internal options or waiver claims.
One big question for the Reds this offseason is whether or not they’ll attempt to unload Bailey’s contract. It’s likely they’d need to eat a significant portion of it even if they do manage to trade him, but it’s possible that a big-budget team might be willing to take a chance on the expensive right-hander. The Phillies, for example, have a lot of payroll space and could afford to take a chance on Bailey rebounding and reestablishing some value. However, it would be difficult to convince any team to take on more than $10MM of his contract. With his value at a low point, the Reds might be best served to open the season with him in the rotation, and hope he can bounce back a bit before the trade deadline. At the very least, he’s better than most of the internal options behind him, and they’d likely spend at least some money on a free agent starter if they traded him, anyway.
It’s difficult to imagine the Reds making any major splashes in free agency. They’ll might sign one or two cheap veteran relievers, but that’s not going to simply fix their bullpen. Perhaps they’ll explore the market for starting pitchers, but unless they manage to retain Cozart, they probably won’t dole out significant money to land a big-name player. Instead, we’ll probably see them make some pitching acquisitions via waiver claim and maybe even the Rule 5 Draft, the latter depending on whether or not they choose to sell off some key pieces.
While the odds are stacked against the Reds posting a winning season in 2018, there are some high-end prospects in their minor league system that are worth being excited about. The next few seasons could prove tough for Cincinnati fans if the Reds choose to have a fire sale, but there’s plenty of upside in the organization, both at the major league level and down on the farm. So, will the Reds tear down their roster even further to supplement that talent? If not, to what extent will they attempt to push through their disadvantages in an effort to win? The Reds’ offseason will be a fun one to track.
NL Central Notes: Jay, Peraza, Glasnow
Outfielder Jon Jay is a free agent this winter, but he tells Madeline Kenney of the Chicago Sun-Times that his hope is to remain with the Cubs. “I love it here,” said Jay, who inked a one-year deal worth $8MM last offseason. “I cannot deny that. I absolutely love it here.”As Kenney notes, manager Joe Maddon effused praise for Jay for much of the season, highlighting his leadership and the consistent quality of his at-bats, even with two strikes. Jay was a frequent presence atop the Cubs’ lineup in the season’s final two months and ultimately finished out the year with a .296/.374/.375 batting line through 433 trips to the plate. Jay, Kenney notes, is well-liked and well-respected among his teammates. “Life isn’t about all the money and all these different things,” said Jay. “It’s about respecting people and treating people the right way. And that’s what I try to do.” The Cubs, however, do have a fairly crowded mix of outfielders with Albert Almora, Jason Heyward, Kyle Schwarber, Ian Happ and Ben Zobrist all vying for playing time in 2018.
More from the division…
- Jose Peraza is already playing winter ball in Venezuela as he prepares for the possibility of an everyday role as the Reds‘ shortstop in 2018, writes MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon. While there’s still a chance that Zack Cozart could be back in Cincinnati next season, Peraza is the favorite to take over the position if Cozart receives more lucrative offers elsewhere. Peraza is currently the top internal option at short, Sheldon notes, and the fleet-footed 23-year-old tells Sheldon that he plans to get as many reps at shortstop as he can this winter in order to work on his defense there. Peraza has bounced between short, second base and the outfield with the Reds and didn’t rate favorably there in the estimation of Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating, though focusing on one position could of course help to improve those results.
- Though Tyler Glasnow‘s rookie season produced disastrous numbers at the MLB level, the Pirates were heartened by improvements he made in Triple-A following a June demotion, writes MLB.com’s Adam Berry. Glasnow overhauled his mechanics last winter in an effort to improve his command, but he ultimately felt the changes adversely impacted his velocity and the overall quality of his secondary offerings. Glasnow went back to his old mechanics in Triple-A and utterly dominated minor league hitters (1.93 ERA, 13.5 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 in 93 1/3 innings). While he didn’t generate positive results in his September return to the bigs, Berry points out that his velocity and spin rate were both much improved. Glasnow should be in the mix for a rotation spot in Pittsburgh again next season, though the Bucs have a number of young MLB-ready options, as MLBTR’s Jeff Todd pointed out in yesterday’s Offseason Outlook for the Pirates.
NL Notes: Dickey, Finnegan, Puig, Marlins
The Braves are still waiting to see where the MLB investigation into international signing violations will lead. David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution has the latest on that situation, though it’s mostly a holding pattern. O’Brien also notes that his expectation is that veteran righty R.A. Dickey will choose to walk away from the game even if the club intends to pick up his $8MM option. Per O’Brien, it “seemed since he last week of the season that [Dickey] was leaning heavily toward retiring.”
More from the National League:
- Reds southpaw Brandon Finnegan, who made just four starts this season due to trouble in both shoulders, tells MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon that he has “completely” healed and is anticipating a normal offeason and Spring Training. “I’ve got more rotation in my right shoulder than I had before I got hurt,” said Finnegan. “That’s a good thing. I’ll start working out in November and throwing in December. I’ll keep up with my running, and that’s it.” Finnegan twice suffered a strained teres major muscle in his throwing shoulder and also was diagnosed with a torn labrum in his right (non-throwing) shoulder after an off-the-field fall in July. The Reds will be counting on the 24-year-old former first-rounder to come back healthy, alongside righties Anthony DeSclafani and Homer Bailey, to help stabilize the rotation.
- New Marlins owner Derek Jeter has already trimmed something in the vicinity of fifteen employees, Barry Jackson and Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald report. That includes a few recent scouting and player development cuts, with some other preexisting personnel still unsure whether they’ll be retained. In the post, the Herald duo also make an astute observation about star slugger Giancarlo Stanton: if the team is going to get to a payroll in the $90MM range, it’s all but impossible to hold Stanton (and his $25MM salary) since the team must also already spend $31MM on Edinson Volquez and Wei-Yin Chen. The former will miss the 2018 season while the latter is a major health risk, so those contracts aren’t movable.
- Scott Miller of Bleacher Report profiles the renaissance of Dodgers outfielder Yasiel Puig. Sources tell Miller that the relationship between Puig and former skipper Don Mattingly was broken beyond repair,” but it seems a second chance under new manager Dave Roberts has paid dividends for all involved — even if it took some time for that to come to fruition. Puig himself credits a newfound willingness to listen to Roberts and others within the organization, spurred by encouragement from his mother, for his improved performance in 2017.
Reds’ GM On Cozart, Young Players, Rebuild
Reds president of baseball operations and general manager Dick Williams sat down with C. Trent Rosecrans and Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer for an excellent, lengthy Q&A covering a number of topics pertaining to the Reds’ upcoming offseason and ongoing rebuild.
Of most interest, perhaps, was the fact that Williams was straightforward in stating that he planned to “continue to talk” to Zack Cozart about the possibility of re-signing the shortstop. The 32-year-old Cozart is up for free agency for the first time in his career, and while his age might not necessarily align with the rebuilding Reds’ timeline to contend, he’s one of the team’s longest-tenured players and is fresh off a career year at the plate. In 507 plate appearances, he hit .297/.385/.548 with a career-high 24 homers and a dramatically improved walk rate (to say nothing of his typically excellent glovework at shortstop).
The Reds will face a tough decision on Cozart, who seems to at the very least be a candidate for a $17.4MM qualifying offer. (MLBTR readers were split about 55-45 in favor of the Reds giving him a QO in early September.) If Cozart isn’t retained, though, it doesn’t sound as if the Reds’ top priority would be to delve into the free-agent or trade markets to attempt to replace him.
“[T]he primary candidate would be (Jose) Peraza,” said Williams when discussing a replacement for Cozart, if needed. “We believe that he showed at the end of ’16 with an extended look that this is a young, athletic, talented player. He’s still one of the youngest guys on our roster. … This year, we really asked him to move around a decent amount. I think that made it a little tougher on him than if he settled in at one spot.”
Peraza is, as Williams suggests, still somewhat of a work in progress. Although he’s spent the bulk of the past two seasons in the Major Leagues, Peraza won’t even turn 24 until April 30 of next year. The former top 100 prospect demonstrated a good deal of promise with an impressive .324/.352/.411 batting line and 21 steals in 72 games last year, but he struggled for the majority of the 2017 campaign before turning things around in the season’s last couple of months. In Peraza’s final 48 games (31 starts), he batted .293/.361/.338 with just 18 strikeouts in 149 plate appearances.
[Related: Cincinnati Reds depth chart and payroll outlook]
Williams did go on to state that while he believes Eugenio Suarez to be capable of playing shortstop, he likes Suarez at third base and would like to have two additional players on the roster that can handle shortstop regularly. Conceivably, that could mean a re-signed Cozart and Peraza, or Peraza and a veteran bench option with experience at the shortstop position as well.
More broadly, Williams didn’t reject the notion that top prospect and former No. 2 overall pick Nick Senzel could play in the Majors next season, though it doesn’t sound as if the team will rush him out of Spring Training. Senzel, according to Williams, is capable of playing second, third, shortstop and perhaps even the outfield corners, but the team is reluctant to bounce him around the diamond too much. Second base seems to be a position at which he’ll get a look, as the Reds have Suarez thriving at the hot corner presently.
Senzel raked at a .321/.391/.514 clip in 507 PAs between Class-A Advanced and Double-A last year, mashing his way through the Southern League to the point that many expect him to begin the 2018 season in Triple-A. Scooter Gennett, of course, gives the team another option at second base, though with just two years of club control remaining, I’d imagine that the Reds wouldn’t have many qualms about ultimately moving him if and when Senzel proves ready (though that’s just my own speculation).
Williams also spoke at length about the struggles of several of the Reds’ young pitchers in 2017, noting the lack of innings most of the team’s young starters were able to log in Triple-A. Injuries to Anthony DeSclafani, Brandon Finnegan and Homer Bailey forced Cincinnati to tap into its reservoir of young pitchers more often than the team would’ve liked. Jesse Winker is also discussed quite a bit, with Williams hinting that he’s intrigued by Winker’s high-OBP skill set as a potential top-of-the-order option. Just 24 years old, Winker hit .298/.375/.529 with seven homers, a 10.9 percent walk rate and a 17.5 percent strikeout rate in 137 big league plate appearances.
While no one should expect the Reds to shell out top dollar in free agency this winter, the GM does suggest that he’ll have some money to spend and that the team’s list of targets is a broad one, including some players looking to move from Japan over to the Major League (and more than just the highly publicized Shohei Otani). The entire Q&A is (obviously) stuffed with quotes from Cincinnati’s top baseball ops executive and is well worth a full read for Reds fans and non-Reds fans alike. Williams gives plenty of insight into where he feels the team is at in its rebuild, his own thoughts on his first year as a general manager and the team’s approach in the upcoming offseason.
Looking For A Match In A Billy Hamilton Trade
After a second consecutive 68-94 season, the Cincinnati Reds’ rebuilding process still has no clear end in sight. Complicating things further for the organization are the facts that they already owe $68.7MM in guaranteed contracts to five players for the 2018 season, and $56.6MM to four players in 2019. Although the organization has shown a willingness to spend in the past, they aren’t exactly a large-market payroll juggernaut, so it stands to reason that the Cincinnati front office is unlikely to spend big across the next two seasons in order to compete for a pennant amidst a highly competitive NL Central division.
Enter Billy Hamilton. A free agent at the end of the 2019 season, the speed demon will probably reach the open market before October baseball returns to Cincinnati. It makes perfect sense, then, that the Reds might seek to explore the trade market for their fleet-footed center fielder.
The 27-year old’s value is largely tied up in his legs. Statcast’s sprint speed leaderboard ranks Hamilton as the second-fastest sprinter in the game (behind Minnesota’s Byron Buxton), while Fangraphs rated his defense third-best among qualifying center fielders in 2017. He’s stolen at least 56 bases in each of his four full seasons at the major league level, and has routinely created runs by through aggressive base running.
The well-known achilles heel of Hamilton’s game has always been his terrible offensive output. Despite tremendous speed down the first base line, Hamilton owns a putrid career .248/.298/.338 batting line across 2,180 plate appearances at the major league level, good for a 71 wRC+ since his promotion in September of 2013.
So, when exploring potential suitors for Hamilton, it makes the most sense to start with teams that have a dire need for a defensive upgrade in center field. It’s also worth noting that Hamilton’s base running skills aren’t as useful to teams that rely heavily on the home run ball, such as the Rays, Athletics and Yankees.
With the above factors in mind, the Giants could be a particularly good match. AT&T Park’s outfield is particularly large, making it difficult for their hitters to put runs on the board via the long ball. Hamilton’s base running prowess would surely be a great asset to a team that finished dead last in baseball with 128 homers, but ranked 8th-best in contact rate. What’s more, San Francisco center fielders ranked as the third-worst defensive group in all of baseball via Fangraphs’ defensive metric. Hamilton would provide a considerable upgrade over that of the aging Denard Span.
Similarly, the Dodgers’ pitching staff could benefit from having Hamilton manning center field in the pitcher-friendly Dodgers Stadium, with Chris Taylor sliding to second base. The Royals could be on the lookout for a center field option if they don’t retain Lorenzo Cain. Hamilton could provide an overall upgrade for the Brewers over the strikeout-plagued Keon Broxton, though they’re more likely to see what they have in Lewis Brinson before looking to external options.
Though Hamilton’s lifetime fWAR of 10.6 pegs him as only a slightly above-average player for his major league career, his skill set is unique. He could fill a hole for many major league clubs, and there’s a good chance he could help fortify the Reds’ farm system while they continue to rebuild.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images
Quick Hits: Twins, Sano, DeSclafani, Mikolas
The Twins announced a few baseball operations changes on Tuesday, including the hiring of 27-year-old Jeremy Zoll as the team’s new director of minor league operations. Brad Steil, who had previously been the team’s farm director since 2013, will now instead head up the Twins’ pro scouting department. Zoll has spent the past few seasons in the Dodgers organization, most recently holding the title of assistant director of player development. Zoll has also worked as an advance scouting coordinator with the Angels. “We’re really fortunate and excited to have him,” said chief baseball officer Derek Falvey of the newly hired Zoll (link via MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger). “He came in highly recommended from the people he worked with and around. He’ll bring some new ideas into what we’re doing developmentally.”
A bit more from around the league…
- While it’s been suggested that surgery isn’t expected for Twins slugger Miguel Sano, GM Thad Levine said today that surgery is still an option for the third baseman’s ailing shin (via Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press). Levine painted surgery as a last resort, however, and said the team will explore other avenues. A decision will be made sooner rather than later though, as the procedure Sano would theoretically require would come with an eight-week recovery, so the Twins understandably don’t want to wait too long before making the call. Whether Sano requires surgery or avoids going under the knife, manager Paul Molitor said today that he doesn’t think Sano needs to play in the Dominican Winter League this year, per Berardino.
- In some other notable injury news, C. Trent Rosecrans of the Cincinnati Enquirer tweets that Reds righty Anthony DeSclafani threw seven innings in an instructional league start today. That could be DeSclafani’s final start of instructional league play, though it’s nonetheless a positive step for a key part of the Cincinnati pitching staff after missing the entire 2017 season. DeSclafani was diagnosed with a sprained ulnar collateral ligament early in the year and was never able to make it back to a Major League mound during the regular season.
- The Rangers could have interest in right-hander Miles Mikolas as he eyes a return to the Majors after a strong three-year run in Japan, writes T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com. (We noted at MLBTR last week that Mikolas was aiming for an MLB comeback.) Limiting walks is high on the Rangers’ wishlist in terms of offseason pitching targets, and Mikolas excelled in that area over his three-year career with the Yomiuri Giants, Sullivan points out. He also notes that the Rangers have had success on the Japanese market in the past under GM Jon Daniels, getting value out of signings such as Colby Lewis, Yu Darvish and Tony Barnette. Obviously, a pursuit of Mikolas would more closely resemble the modest contracts given to Lewis and Barnette than the massive financial commitment that the Rangers spent to acquire Darvish, but Sullivan notes that Texas is likely to explore as many avenues to rotation upgrades as possible this winter. Mikolas’ most recent stint in the Majors came with the Rangers back in 2014.
Rookie Davis Undergoes Hip Surgery
Reds right-hander Rookie Davis has undergone surgery on his right hip, per a club announcement (h/t MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon, on Twitter). Specifically, repair work was done to the labrum and a bone spur was removed.
The procedure is a rather significant one, it seems. Davis will have an entire winter to rest and rehab, but the team says he is not expected to be ready to begin spring camp with the rest of the roster in mid-February.
With the news, it seems the Reds will have one less early-season rotation option on hand. Presumably, though, Davis will work back up to strength at some point during the 2018 campaign. Regardless, adding some pitching depth likely remains the Reds’ top priority this winter.
Though the 24-year-old Davis was perhaps not a leading candidate to claim one of the five rotation spots, he surely would have had an opportunity to compete for a job during camp. And given the organization’s views on pitching usage — including a focus on multi-inning relievers — it certainly stands to reason that Davis would have had a chance of earning a significant role of some kind out of the gates.
Instead, the youngster will have a chance to iron out some pitching kinks even as he rebuilds strength in his hip. He struggled to an 8.63 ERA over his first 24 major-league frames in 2017. But Davis did show better at Triple-A, where he worked to a 4.43 ERA with 8.1 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9.
Notably, Davis will accrue MLB service while he’s on the 60-day DL since he ended the season on the big-league roster. Cincinnati will still control him for the foreseeable future, leaving plenty of time for the club to recoup some value from one of the four players received in the 2015 Aroldis Chapman trade. (Among the others, only Eric Jagielo remains with the organization; he has struggled in the upper minors and has yet to reach the bigs.)