9 AL Central Hitters Looking For Bounce-Back Years
We’ve already looked at potential bounce-back candidates from the American League West and the AL East. Let’s now move to the AL Central and begin with established hitters who may be able to rebound in 2020.
Eddie Rosario, OF, Twins:
The free-swinging Rosario was a 32-home run hitter last season, but despite that, his fWAR plummeted from 3.5 in 2018 to 1.2. His overall line in 590 plate appearances (.276/.300/.500 – good for a 103 wRC+) was close to average, owing in part to the sport’s fifth-lowest walk rate (3.7 percent). And whereas Rosario received positive marks as a fielder in 2018, he notched minus-8 Defensive Runs Saved, a minus-5.6 Ultimate Zone Rating and the game’s worst Outs Above Average mark (minus-17) a year ago.
Jose Ramirez, 3B, Indians:
Ramirez was one of the most valuable players in baseball from 2017-18, though a slow start and a 5 percent-plus drop in walk rate last year doomed the switch hitter to a mediocre .255/.327/.479 line in 542 plate appearances. That said, Ramirez still finished with 23 homers, 24 steals and 3.3 fWAR, so he wasn’t exactly a drain on Cleveland’s lineup. And Ramirez was infinitely better after the All-Star break (176 wRC+ in the second half, 68 in the first), giving the Indians hope he’ll be at his best from the get-go this year.
Franmil Reyes, DH/OF, Indians:
While Ramirez came alive in the second half of the season, Reyes was somewhat disappointing after the Indians acquired him from the Padres in July. The 24-year-old still concluded with 37 HRs, but he saw his wRC+ (109) drop by 20 points from the prior season and his on-base percentage go down by 30 points. In all, he was a .249/.310/.512 hitter. Nevertheless, the powerful 24-year-old did rank in baseball’s 98th percentile in hard-hit rate and its 99th percentile in average exit velocity.
Miguel Cabrera, 1B/DH, Tigers:
Cabrera is undoubtedly one of the greatest hitters of all-time, but it’s fair to say he’s nowhere near the offensive force he was during his halcyon days. Thanks in part to knee problems, the 36-year-old was pedestrian at the plate in 2019, when he batted .282/.346/.398 with 12 home runs and a career-low ISO (.116) across 549 appearances. Cabrera also posted one of the lowest walk percentages of his career (8.7) and, according to Statcast, saw his average exit velocity fall by 4 mph and his hard-hit rate drop by 10 percent compared to the numbers he logged during an injury-shortened 2018. Regardless of whether Cabrera rebounds, the Tigers aren’t going to contend in 2020. However, it would be reassuring for the team to see a glimpse of vintage Cabrera, who’s still owed $132MM through 2023.
C.J. Cron, 1B, Tigers:
One of Cabrera’s newest teammates in Detroit, Cron’s coming off a so-so season with the division-rival Twins. Although Cron did hit 25 home runs, the type of production he recorded as a Ray the previous season wasn’t really there. He wound up with a .253/.311/.469 line (101 wRC+, down from 123 in 2018) over 499 trips to the plate. There were some positive signs, though: Cron’s strikeout rate went down by 4.5 percent, his swinging-strike percentage declined by roughly 2 percent and he was a Statcast darling, ranking near the top of the league in several categories – including hard-hit percentage (82nd percentile), average exit velocity (84th) and expected weighted on-base average (86th).
Jeimer Candelario, 3B, Tigers:
Candelario was a 2.5-fWAR player in 2018, his first full season in the majors, but devolved into a replacement-level performer last season. The switch-hitting 26-year-old batted a weak .203/.306/.337 with eight homers in 386 PA, and the Tigers banished him to the minors for a good portion of the season because of his uninspiring output at the sport’s highest level. Statcast didn’t offer any reasons for hope, either, ranking Candelario in the game’s 17th percentile in xwOBA, its 24th percentile in hard-hit rate and its 31st percentile in average exit velocity.
Salvador Perez, C, Royals:
The typically durable Perez, 29, didn’t play at all last season after undergoing Tommy John surgery, though it seems he’s coming along well in his recovery. Assuming he does stay on track, the Royals will have to hope for better numbers than what the highly respected six-time All-Star offered when he last took the field in 2018. Back then, Perez registered an unspectacular .235/.274/.439 line in 544 PA and earned bottom-of-the-barrel grades as a pitch framer; however, he did throw out an incredible 48 percent of would-be base stealers.
Maikel Franco, 3B, Royals:
Once a quality prospect, Franco seldom lived up to the hype in Philadelphia from 2014-19. Last season was especially rough for Franco, who hit a disastrous .234/.297/.409 in 428 attempts en route to minus-0.5 fWAR. The rebuilding Royals then bought low on Franco in free agency, signing him for a $2.95MM guarantee. Franco’s still just 27, and he’ll be eligible for arbitration in 2021, so he’s worth a shot for Kansas City.
Ryan O’Hearn, 1B, Royals:
O’Hearn was fantastic during his 170-PA major league debut in 2018, but things fell apart over a much larger sample size last season. The 26-year-old amassed 370 PA and stumbled to a .195/.281/.369 showing. A 63-point drop in batting average on balls in play (.230) didn’t help, though, and O’Hearn did put up above-average exit velocity and hard-hit marks. However, he only ranked in the league’s 24th percentile in xwOBA (.308, compared to a .279 real wOBA).
Injury Notes: Mercado, Robles, Brigham, Ginn
Some updates on injuries from around baseball, including an unfortunate blow for one of the nation’s top draft prospects:
- Indians’ outfielder Oscar Mercado left this afternoon’s spring training game with a sprained left wrist, per reporters (including Mandy Bell of MLB.com). He’ll be evaluated tomorrow, Bell adds. The 25-year-old is perhaps the best player in an uncertain Cleveland outfield mix. If the injury were to affect Mercado’s availability in the season’s early going, it’s likely Terry Francona would turn center field over to Delino DeShields, Jr. Acquired from the Rangers in this offseason’s Corey Kluber swap, DeShields is a high-quality defender and baserunner, but his bat has never come around at the MLB level. He hit just .249/.325/.347 (72 wRC+) with Texas last year, significantly worse than Mercado’s .269/.318/.443 (95 wRC+) line.
- Another speedster, Nationals’ center fielder Víctor Robles, has been working back from an injury of his own. Fortunately, the outlook seems promising. The 22-year-old is swinging without pain, manager Dave Martinez tells reporters (including Jessica Camerato of MLB.com). Robles is still feeling some soreness in his oblique while throwing and running, though, so the club is understandably playing things cautiously. One of the game’s best defensive outfielders, Robles hit a passable .255/.326/.419 (91 wRC+) in his first full MLB season in 2019.
- Marlins’ reliever Jeff Brigham is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, reports Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald. He’s dealing with a right biceps issue that has thus far kept him from ramping up his throwing program. The 28-year-old logged only a 4.46 ERA with average strikeout (24.2%) and walk (8.7%) rates in 32 appearances last season. However, the former Dodger farmhand averaged 96.6 MPH on his heater with significant fastball and slider spin. That quality stuff helps to explain the Marlins’ decision to keep Brigham on the 40-man roster this winter despite an offseason full of churn in the bullpen.
- Former Dodgers’ first-rounder J.T. Ginn underwent Tommy John surgery yesterday, Mississippi State head coach Chris Lemonis announced. The 30th overall pick in the 2018 draft, Ginn turned down pro ball to head to MSU. The 20-year-old righty shined as a freshman in 2019 and looked to be a potential high draft pick again this June as a draft-eligible sophomore. He’ll still be eligible for the draft, of course, but it’ll be interesting to see if any team would be willing to offer him enough to persuade him against returning to Starkville for his junior season.
Quick Hits: Lindor, Galvis, C. Taylor, Olympics
As recently as mid-February, Indians shortstop Francisco Lindor called Cleveland “home” and expressed a willingness to stay with the club. No extension has come together yet, but Indians president Chris Antonetti said Tuesday that “neither side has given up trying,” per Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com. However, Lindor noted he has an “early March” deadline on contract talks, so it appears the Indians are running out of time to lock him up in the near future (if they haven’t already). Odds have long been against the Indians finding a way to keep Lindor from hitting free agency when his team control runs out after 2021, as the 26-year-old is on pace to wind up with one of the largest contracts in the history of the game if and when he reaches the open market.
- Reds shortstop Freddy Galvis suffered “a quad strain during a baserunning drill,” according to manager David Bell (via Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer). Galvis underwent an MRI, but the severity of the injury isn’t known at this time. The Reds looked ripe for an upgrade at short during the offseason, but they instead stuck with Galvis, whom they claimed from Toronto last August and then retained by way of a $5.5MM club option during the winter. Now, if Galvis’ injury is severe enough to cost him regular-season time, it’s unclear who will fill in at short for the Reds. Alex Blandino and Kyle Farmer might be the most logical in-house choices, but neither brings much experience to the table.
- Dodgers utility player Chris Taylor‘s out of action for the moment after taking a pitch off the back of the left shoulder, Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register tweets. There’s no indication that it’s anything but a minor injury for Taylor, whom a fractured left forearm limited to 124 games in 2019. The versatile Taylor was a highly valuable player for the Dodgers from 2017-18, but his numbers dipped last season during a campaign in which he batted .262/.333/.462 with 1.7 fWAR in 414 plate appearances.
- Major League Baseball and the MLBPA reached a deal with the world baseball governing body that will allow minor leaguers to participate in this summer’s Olympic Games, the Yonhap News Agency relays. The agreement will give national teams the right to select minor leaguers from MLB teams’ 40-man rosters to participate in the Olympics, but anyone on a 26-man roster will be protected. That means there could be some familiar names to baseball fans in the Olympics, which will include the sport for the first time in 12 years.
Indians’ Emmanuel Clase Out 8-12 Weeks With Teres Major Strain
The Indians received another injury blow Thursday, as an MRI revealed a moderate strain of the teres major muscle in hard-throwing young reliever Emmanuel Clase‘s back (Twitter link via Ryan Lewis of the Akron Beacon-Journal). Clase, the main player Cleveland received in the trade that sent Corey Kluber to the Rangers, is expected to miss eight to 12 weeks of game activity.
If the injury sounds familiar to Indians fans, that’s because it’s the same muscle strain that sidelined right-hander Mike Clevinger for more than two months early in the 2019 season. Clevinger landed on the IL on April 9 and was able to make it back on the shorter end of that timetable — returning to action in just under 10 weeks’ time, on June 17.
The loss of Clase is tough for the Indians not only because it leaves them with only Delino DeShields Jr. as an immediate return for Kluber but also because Clase had been expected to be a key late-inning weapon for manager Terry Francona. Clase made his big league debut at just 21 years old last year, showing off a triple-digit sinker that helped him pitch to a 2.31 ERA with a 21-to-6 K/BB ratio and a whopping 60.6 percent ground-ball rate in 23 1/3 innings of work.
Clase has been heralded as a potential closer of the future in the Indians organization, although for the time being (once healthy), he’s likely to serve as a setup piece for All-Star closer Brad Hand. With Clase sidelined, the Indians will likely look to right-hander Nick Wittgren as the primary setup option for Hand. Other options in the ‘pen include veteran lefty Oliver Perez, as well as right-handers Adam Cimber and Hunter Wood. There’s a fair bit of competition for the final few bullpen spots to begin the season — particularly now that Clase will begin the season on the 15-day injured list. (Remember: Major League Baseball upped the minimum IL stay for pitchers from 10 to 15 days, effective in 2020.)
While it’s a disheartening start to the beginning of Clase’s Indians tenure, he’ll have plenty of time to make an impact with his new club. Clase has yet to accrue a full year of MLB service time, though he’ll likely cross that threshold at some point in 2020. He’s under team control through at least the 2025 season and won’t even be eligible for arbitration until the completion of the 2022 season.
Health Notes: Clase, Nimmo, May, Stock
The Indians are awaiting the results of an MRI on flamethrowing relief prospect Emmanuel Clase, the team told reporters Wednesday (link via Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer). The 21-year-old righty has been feeling discomfort in his latissimus dorsi recently, including during yesterday’s throwing session, per GM Mike Chernoff. Clase, armed with a triple-digit sinker, was the centerpiece of the trade that sent Corey Kluber to Texas over the winter. Cleveland received the young righty and backup outfielder Delino DeShields Jr. in that swap, so any notable injury for Clase would leave the team with a part-time outfielder (and, of course, salary relief) as the immediate return for Kluber. If healthy, Clase should factor prominently into the Cleveland ‘pen in 2020. He made his MLB debut in 2019, pitching to a 2.31 ERA with a 21-to-6 K/BB ratio in 23 1/3 innings of relief for the Rangers.
Some more injury situations worth monitoring…
- Brandon Nimmo gave Mets fans something of a scare today, though details surrounding his status are still somewhat sparse. Nimmo was scratched from today’s game after the team’s cardiologist recommended that he undergo additional cardiac testing, the club told reporters (Twitter link via Anthony DiComo of MLB.com). Manager Luis Rojas eventually labeled the extra tests as “precautionary” and downplayed the severity of the issue, but it’s certainly out of the ordinary to see players go through multiple waves of cardiac examinations. The 26-year-old Nimmo missed a good chunk of the 2019 season due to neck issues and hit .221/.375/.407 through 254 plate appearances when healthy. Nimmo has been an on-base machine in his career, as evidenced by a lifetime .254/.387/.440 slash, but the 2018 season remains the only year in which he’s even played 70 games at the MLB level.
- Prized Dodgers pitching prospect Dustin May is still being slowed by muscle pain in his side and hasn’t thrown off a mound since the first day of camp, tweets MLB.com’s Ken Gurnick. May impressed in his MLB debut in 2019, pitching to a 3.63 ERA with 32 strikeouts and just five walks in 34 2/3 innings of work despite the fact that he just turned 22 this past September. He ranks within the game’s top 25 overall prospects at Baseball America, FanGraphs, MLB.com, Baseball Prospectus and The Athletic. However, between the acquisition of David Price, the return of Alex Wood and May’s early discomfort, it’s not clear whether the touted young righty will factor into the Opening Day mix for the Dodgers. He should play a significant role on their pitching staff in 2020 regardless, but he’s a ways behind the rest of the club’s pitchers in camp at this point.
- Perhaps no team has seen more bullpen injuries than the Phillies over the past year, and it seems that trend is continuing. Manager Joe Girardi tells Matt Gelb of The Athletic that right-hander Robert Stock is dealing with forearm tightness — possibly a flexor tendon issue. That’s an ominous outlook for any pitcher, though at this point there’s no timetable or definitive diagnosis, as he’s still undergoing testing. Stock, 30, is far from a household name but is on the Phillies’ 40-man roster, so a notable absence would likely lead to some additional moves. He spent the past two seasons with the Padres, struggling through 10 2/3 innings in 2019 but posting a sharp 2.50 ERA with just under a strikeout per inning in 39 2/3 frames back in 2018.
Health Notes: Suarez, Piscotty, Archer, Clase/Civale
Fortunately, there hasn’t been much in the way of negative health news to this point of Spring Training. Let’s check in on a few issues that have arisen …
- Reds third baseman Eugenio Suarez is feeling both excitement and some trepidation as he nears readiness to test his recently tweaked shoulder, as Bobby Nightengale of the Cincinnati Enquirer reports. Indication remains that Suarez could conceivably be ready to roll on Opening Day. He says he’s getting his timing down even as he avoids throwing or swinging full-bore. But there are also some nerves as he prepares to ramp up. “Just a little bit because I know I have something there,” Suarez said when asked whether he’s nervous. “I don’t want to get hurt again. I have to be careful. We’ll see what happens.”
- After a disappointing 2019 season, the last thing Athletics outfielder Stephen Piscotty wants to deal with is another injury issue. Right now, the hope is that his oblique/rib cage problem isn’t going to represent a major limitation, as Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reports. But Piscotty might be down for another week and it’s beginning to look like Opening Day readiness could be in doubt. That’d be a disappointment, of course, but it’s surely better than rushing back and ending up with a bigger problem.
- Neck tightness kept Pirates righty Chris Archer from making a scheduled outing today, as Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic was among those to report on Twitter. There hasn’t been a substantial update just yet, but there’s no reason to believe that this is more than a minor blip.
- It’s a similar situation in Indians‘ camp, where righties Emmanuel Clase and Aaron Civale have been limited. As MLB.com’s Mandy Bell tweets, the former is dealing with lat discomfort and the latter a sore groin. While Clase is going to slow his build-up to let things calm down, Civale is preparing to throw a sim game.
Lonnie Chisenhall Retires
Lonnie Chisenhall is retiring after eight MLB seasons. As reported by J.J. Smith of the Carteret County News-Times, the former Indians third baseman/outfielder discussed his decision while attending a jersey dedication ceremony in his honor at his former middle school in Newport, North Carolina.
“I’ve only played 29 games in the past two years. So between that, and I have three kids at home, they are all in school, traveling around the country wasn’t practical anymore. It was a pretty easy decision,” Chisenhall said during a question-and-answer portion of the assembly with Newport Middle School students.
The 31-year-old hangs up his cleats after 688 Major League games, all with Cleveland from 2011-18. Chisenhall was a highly-touted young player, drafted 29th overall by the Indians in 2008 and given high placements (31st in 2010, 25th in 2011) on Baseball America’s top-100 prospect lists. Unfortunately, injuries were a constant presence in Chisenhall’s career and perhaps prevented him from fully living up to that top-prospect status, though he still managed to be a productive player over his eight seasons.
Chisenhall hit .268/.320/.427 with 64 home runs over 2360 career plate appearances, good for a 102 OPS+ and wRC+. Most of that success came against right-handed pitching for the lefty-swinging Chisenhall, though he produced good numbers against both lefties and righties over his final two seasons, which saw him post an .872 OPS over 365 PA while battling numerous injuries.
The most notable of those injuries was a series of nagging calf problems that, ultimately, brought an end to Chisenhall’s career. As he noted while talking to Newport’s students, he was limited to only 29 MLB games in 2018 and then didn’t appear at all in the big leagues last season, playing just seven games with the Pirates’ Triple-A affiliate after signing a one-year, $2.75MM deal with Pittsburgh last offseason.
MLB Trade Rumors wishes Chisenhall congratulations on a fine career, and wishes him well in his post-playing endeavors.
Minor MLB Transactions: 2/23/20
Let’s keep up to date with the latest minor moves from around baseball…
- The Indians announced that they’ve inked left-hander Ty Boyles to a minor league contract. The 23-year-old southpaw, a 2013 draftee of the Reds, has spent his entire 7-year professional career in the Cincinnati organization, reaching as high as the Double-A level last year. After beginning his career as a starter, Boyles transitioned to a full-time relief role last year, getting into 47 games and working 66 total innings. He struck out 64 batters against 34 walks, notching a 4.36 ERA in his first full season in the bullpen. He was a 2018 participant in the Arizona Fall League. He’ll report to minor league camp with his new organization.
Quick Hits: Puig, Arbitration Process, Royals, Montgomery
The status of top remaining free agent Yasiel Puig remains up in the air as Spring Training baseball kicks off today. The mercurial and ever-entertaining pugilist got everyday at-bats in 2019 after a couple years of more judicious playing time with the Dodgers – but the results don’t have teams lined up with contract offers. Puig hit .267/.327/.458 across 611 plate appearances with the Reds and Indians with 24 home runs and 84 RBIs. Puig’s singular personality makes his on-field contributions just a part of the overall package, but even after a year of modest production (101 wRC+), Puig ought to be able to find a job somewhere. Latest reports have the White Sox and Rockies as potential landing spots for Puig, per Hector Gomez of Deportivo Z 101. The Athletic’s Nick Groke downplays the Rockies interest (via Twitter), however.
- CAA agent Jeff Berry lost two arbitration cases this week. Arbitration panels chose the team award amount in cases for J.T. Realmuto and Josh Hader, two transformative performers trying to make their cases to earn beyond the scope of their positional historical comps, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. Said Berry of the proceedings, “This was about two guys (Hader and Realmuto) willing to go to the mat to fight for what’s right, and hopefully other players take notice.” It’s possible to look at the results and presume that Berry overestimated his cases for both superstars (within the confines of the current system). It’s surely a fine line between fighting for the best result in an uneven system and politicking for change. Either way, the arbitration panel could use some work. Rosenthal brought a particularly interesting point to the foreground, noting that either the players’ union or MLB “can unilaterally fire any arbitrator at any time.” That’s certainly an inflection point for turning a supposedly unbiased system into one rife for manipulation.
- After trading for Cubs’ swingman Mike Montgomery in July, the Royals believe he can reach another gear when settled into a starting role, per Lynn Worthy of the Kansas City Star. The Cubs thought the same thing when they acquired Montgomery in the middle of 2016. Though the Cubs never found consistent work for Montgomery in the rotation, he played an important role as a swingman for Chicago. And of course, never forget, he earned the save in game seven of the 2016 World Series. Not for nothing, but Montgomery has desired a rotation slot for some time now, and it could be that the consistency and trust the Royals plan on giving him in his role will have the desired effect – but only time will tell. In 13 starts after the trade last season, Montgomery went 2-7 with a 4.64 ERA/5.23 FIP while striking out 7.2 batters per nine innings.
Carlos Carrasco Day-To-Day With Hip Flexor Strain
February 21: Indians fans can breathe a sigh of relief, it seems. Bell tweets that the MRI revealed a mild strain of Carrasco’s hip flexor but nothing more serious. The club has listed him as day-to-day.
February 20: In more ominous news surrounding an already banged-up Indians rotation, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer tweets that righty Carlos Carrasco is slated to undergo an MRI on his right leg. MLB.com’s Mandy Bell tweets that Carrasco entered the clubhouse this morning using a crutch after experiencing discomfort in his most recent workouts. The club offered no further specifics, Hoynes adds.
Carrasco, 33 next month, won American League Comeback Player of the Year honors in 2019 after stepping away from baseball in May following a leukemia diagnosis but returning to great (and well-deserved) fanfare just three months later. He struggled in a bullpen role down the stretch, but the results were secondary to the rapid, remarkable recovery for one of the game’s best and most respected pitchers.
Cleveland is already down a starter following Mike Clevinger‘s meniscus surgery. There’s hope that he won’t be sidelined for much of the regular season, but he’s still very early in the recovery process. Regardless, the pair of injuries to two of the Indians’ three most notable starters is a worrisome development — particularly in light of the offseason trade that sent Corey Kluber to Texas.
Right-hander Shane Bieber is the top healthy name in the rotation mix at present. The Indians have a characteristically deep mix of alternatives from which to draw. Right-handers Zach Plesac, Aaron Civale, Jefry Rodriguez and Adam Plutko all threw in the big leagues last season. Lefties Logan Allen and Scott Moss could be options, too, and well-regarded prospect also Triston McKenzie looms in the upper minors. If the Indians want to add some depth from outside the organization, there are still a few notable names who’ve yet to sign (e.g. Jason Vargas, Andrew Cashner, Clay Buchholz, Clayton Richard, Matt Harvey).