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Rule 5 Report: McGuiness, Kobernus, Rosenbaum, Inciarte, Fields

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To get the weekend started with some fascinating insight into the use of analytics by agents, look for the audio link at the 2013 SABR Analytics Conference Player Agent Panel page.  Let's take a look at a few updates on some Rule 5 draftees who are hoping to stick with their new clubs:

  • Chris McGuiness has impressed the Indians at first and in the outfield, writes Paul Hoynes of The Plain Dealer, and the team is loath to return him to the Rangers.  According to manager Terry Francona, "in a perfect world, I wish he wasn't a Rule 5 pick and he was in our minor league system."  If the Indians are unable to keep McGuiness on the big league roster, Francona "hope[s]" that a trade can be worked out to keep him in the system, adds Jordan Bastian of MLB.com.
  • Jeff Kobernus, primarily an infielder in the Nationals system, continues to battle with Quintin Berry for a spot in the Tigers outfield, writes Jim Hawkins of MLB.com.  While it is "possible" that both players could make the roster, according to manager Jim Leyland, that scenario is a "longshot."
  • Another player plucked from the Nationals, left-handed pitcher Danny Rosenbaum, "has put up a nice argument for himself in the competition for a middle-relief spot" with the Rockies, writes Thomas Harding of MLB.com.  Rosenbaum, who never saw a big league camp while in the Washington organization, spoke with Nats' reliever Craig Stammen to learn how to transition from the rotation to the bullpen.
  • Outfielder Ender Inciarte is in the midst of a solid spring and is making a play for the Phillies' fifth outfielder role, according to Todd Zolecki of MLB.com.  Just 22 years old, Inciarte never played above High-A ball in the Diamondbacks organization.
  • Josh Fields came to the Astros from the Red Sox with the first pick in the Rule 5 draft, and acknowledges being "really, really excited when Houston picked me up."  As Adam Berry of MLB.com writes, the rebuilding Houston franchise hopes that the 27-year-old, righthanded reliever is ready for the big leagues after he posted a solid 2012 season in Triple-A Pawtucket.

Central Notes: Gomez, Chapman, Choate, Indians

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It was on this day in 1932 that the Reds and Dodgers swung a very notable trade.  Clyde Sukeforth, Tony Cuccinello and Joe Stripp went to Brooklyn while Cincinnati acquired Babe Herman, Wally Gilbert and a then-23-year-old catcher named Ernie Lombardi.  Needless to say, this deal ended up being a big win for the Reds — Lombardi spent the bulk (10 years) of his Hall of Fame career in Cincinnati and hit .311/.359/.469 and 120 homers with the club.  Lombardi won two batting titles during his career, and was the last catcher to lead the NL in average until Buster Posey last season.

Here are some items from around both the NL and AL Central…

AL Central Notes: Twins, Francona, Royals

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The latest notes from the AL Central…

  • After training in Phoenix Jim Thome has returned home, Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN reports (Twitter link). While Thome still wants a Major League contract, the Twins would likely take him on a minor league deal in Wolfson’s view.
  • Indians manager Terry Francona told Bob Nightengale of USA Today that he has renewed energy in Cleveland. Though Francona's tenure in Boston ended badly, he says he has new perspective on the game after his year as an ESPN analyst. Those around him agree. "He's really the dream manager everyone wants to play for," Jason Giambi said. Even Red Sox president Larry Lucchino acknowledged that Francona "was an important part of the success" of the Red Sox.
  • The Royals offered Ivan Rodriguez a Major League contract before the 2012 season, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports (Twitter links). Rodriguez decided to retire instead of playing for Kansas City.

AL Central Notes: White Sox, Hahn, Tigers, Porcello

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Here's a look at tonight's links out of the American League Central..

  • The White Sox expect to come out strong in 2013 and General Manager Rick Hahn plans on being a buyer this summer, writes MLB.com's Scott Merkin.  "Certainly we still do the coverage of the mid- or lower-level prospects, the type you traditionally acquire should you have to unload or sell at the [Trade] Deadline," Hahn said. "Our focus is going to be on adding not selling, hopefully, and we are going to be prepared should we have to shift gears and head down that path."
  • There has been a great deal of trade talk surrounding Tigers starter Rick Porcello, but moving the right-hander would leave the club with little depth, writes Chris Iott of MLive.com.  If the season started today, either Porcello or Drew Smyly would be left out of the rotation, but moving one would leave the club without a solid insurance policy against an injured starter.
  • Michael Bourn signed a four-year, $48MM deal with the Indians in February, shortly after celebrating his 30th birthday.  Players whose games are based on speed tend to fade in their 30s, but Bourn says that he has no reason to believe that he will slow down in the years to come, writes Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer.

Offseason In Review: Cleveland Indians

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The Indians spent aggressively on free agents, hired a big-name manager and completed a major trade. Chris Antonetti’s third offseason in Cleveland was his most eventful winter yet, and in its aftermath, the Indians seem capable of surprising other American League clubs.

Major League Signings

  • Nick Swisher, OF: four years, $56MM. $14MM Vesting option for 2017.
  • Michael Bourn, OF: four years, $48MM. $12MM Vesting option for 2017.
  • Brett Myers, P: one year, $7MM. $8MM Club option for 2014.
  • Mark Reynolds, IF: one year, $6MM.
  • Ubaldo Jimenez, SP: one year, $5.75MM. Club option exercised.
  • Total Spend: $122.75MM.

International Signings

  • OF Takuya Tsuchida.

Notable Minor League Signings

Trades and Claims

Notable Losses

Needs Addressed

The Indians' deal with manager Terry Francona hinted at what would become apparent later in the 2012-13 offseason: ownership was ready to spend. After dismissing Manny Acta, the Indians hired Francona, who had worked in the Cleveland front office before managing the Red Sox to two World Series championships. 

Nick Swisher - Indians (PW)

With Francona's assistance, the Indians started pursuing some of the offseason's top free agents. Nick Swisher required a four-year, $56MM commitment and the forfeiture of a second round draft pick. Yet he’s a skilled, durable player who fits the Indians’ needs. This deal makes the Indians a better team. 

For most of the offseason the Indians didn’t seem particularly engaged in the market for Michael Bourn. Then, once the market for the center fielder cooled, the Indians struck, offering a four-year deal with a vesting option for a fifth season. This deal make sense from a value standpoint, as Bourn had been expected to sign for more than $12MM per season. Plus the Indians are just committed to Bourn for four years and didn’t have to surrender a first round draft pick to complete the deal.

Mark Reynolds should provide the team with his distinctive brand of power and strikeouts after signing a one-year deal. Jason Giambi, another free agent addition, will provide left-handed power off of the bench. The Indians also added to their bullpen and bench, bringing in newcomers Matt Albers, Matt Capps, Mike Aviles and Ryan Raburn.

The Indians entered the offseason in serious need of rotation help, and they did add starting pitching. Antonetti traded for Trevor Bauer and signed Brett Myers, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Scott Kazmir. The club's willingness to spend on the top players available extended to pitchers as well. Edwin Jackson, who obtained a four-year, $52MM contract from the Cubs, has said the Indians were also finalists for his services. Myers projects as the team’s third starter and the others are all in the mix for starting spots, giving Francona a new-look rotation.

Questions Remaining

Even after adding Bauer, Myers and Matsuzaka, the Indians’ rotation looks weaker than those of other American League teams. Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson were hittable last year, leading a rotation that posted a 5.25 ERA and averaged fewer than six innings per start. 

The current group should pitch better than the ’12 team, which is something. Yet this rotation seems thin compared to the Tigers or other projected playoff teams in the American League. If the Indians are in contention midseason they could be searching for rotation help. In the meantime, agent Scott Boras can try to sell them on free agent right-hander Kyle Lohse.

Deal of Note

It was time for the Indians to trade Shin-Soo Choo. While Choo has significant on-field value, he’s one year away from free agency and not particularly receptive to extension talks. Credit Antonetti for obtaining Trevor Bauer, the third overall pick in the 2011 draft, in the deal for Choo.

It’s hard to imagine that the Indians could have done much better in the trade. They exchange one year of Choo for six years of Bauer, a 22-year-old who posted a 2.42 ERA with 10.8 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9 in the upper minors last year. 

There’s no question that the Indians are taking on risk here, too. Bauer has a distinctive long-toss program and unconventional training methods. He appeared to have strained relationships with catcher Miguel Montero and manager Kirk Gibson in Arizona. And he has struggled to limit walks as a professional. All of that said, Antonetti obtained a consensus top 20 prospect in baseball for a player whose time in Cleveland was almost up. Long-term this deal looks like a coup for the Indians, and Bauer could even help the team in 2013.

Overview

The Indians are a stronger team now than they were at the end of the 2012 season, and if they get some breaks and stay healthy they could contend. However, their starting pitching seems thin and could get exposed. They’ve earned their status as a sleeper team, but until their rotation proves otherwise I have trouble viewing them as a likely contender.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Central Notes: Kazmir, Jackson, Twins

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Earlier today, the Indians granted Ben Francisco his unconditional release and added Rich Hill to the 40-man roster, meaning Hill is likely to break camp as a member of the Tribe's bullpen in the mind of MLB.com's Jordan Bastian. Here's some more on the Indians and other Central division teams…

  • Indians non-roster invitee Scott Kazmir feels that he's pitched well enough to earn the team's fifth starter role, according to Cleveland.com's Glenn Moore (link includes video interview with Kazmir). The 29-year-old Kazmir has pitched in just one game since 2010 but told reporters that each time he was released allowed him to step back and examine what he needed to improve on to get back to his previous levels. Bastian tweets that between the Cactus League and "B" games, Kazmir has fired 11 scoreless innings with a 13-to-2 K/BB ratio.
  • J.J. Stankevitz of CSNChicago.com writes that the trade to the White Sox was a turning point in the career of Edwin Jackson, who benefited from pitching coach Don Cooper's tutelage. Jackson tells Stankevitz that he isn't fazed by the fact that the Cubs will be his seventh team since 2008. He's likely to keep that uniform for awhile, having signed a four-year, $52MM contract this offseason.
  • The money to be saved by delaying Aaron Hicks' service time is the "only justifiable reason" to keep him from opening the season as the Twins' center fielder in the eyes of 1500 ESPN's Phil Mackey. In a separate piece, Mackey notes that Darin Mastroianni is still pushing for the job, and manager Ron Gardenhire says no decision has been reached. Our own Ben Nicholson-Smith examined the service time considerations for Hicks and other members of Baseball America's Top 100 Prospects list late last month.

Indians Release Ben Francisco

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The Indians announced that they released outfielder Ben Francisco. The team selected the contract of Rich Hill and placed right-hander Blake Wood on the 60-day disabled list in related moves.

The Indians signed Francisco to a minor league deal with an invitation to MLB Spring Training in January. Francisco played for the Blue Jays, Astros and Rays in 2012. The 31-year-old began the year in Toronto and joined the Astros in a July trade before being dealt to Tampa Bay in August. He posted a .240/.285/.385 batting line with four home runs in 207 total plate appearances, playing both corner outfield positions. The John Boggs & Associates client has a career line of .252/.329/.414 against left-handed pitching.

AL Notes: Ryan, Porcello, Happ, Indians

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Rangers CEO Nolan Ryan had dinner with principal owners Ray Davis and Bob Simpson Friday night to discuss his future role with the franchise. Simpson called the meeting "productive" while Ryan remained silent until today when he released a statement through the team. "Over the last week, Ray Davis, Bob Simpson, and I have been in discussion and met in-person. The conversations have been productive, and we have discussed my role as CEO of the organization. We agreed these discussions will continue as we go forward. I am very proud of what the Rangers have accomplished over the last several years, and I believe our preparations for upcoming season are what is important." Sources have told the Fort Worth Star-Telegram Ryan could leave after he fulfills his two remaining team obligations: in San Antonio for the Rangers' two exhibition games there March 29-30 and in Houston during the Rangers' season-opening series against the Astros. In other news and notes from the American League:

Indians Notes: CEO Explains Bourn, Swisher Signings

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Indians CEO Paul Dolan explains his team's thought process following a 68-94 season in 2012 and says that a total rebuild was not an option, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. "None of us wanted to think about tearing it down. Our goal is to put together a team to win a World Series. Another goal is to avoid 20 years of losing, which some smaller-market teams have endured." The Indians did trade outfielder Shin-Soo Choo, but rather than also dealing veterans like Asdrubal Cabrera, Chris Perez and Justin Masterson, the team spent heavily on free agents like Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher. Here are more notes from Pluto's interview with Dolan.

  • Dolan expresses "a high degree of confidence" in team president Mark Shapiro and GM Chris Antonetti, even though the Indians haven't had a winning season since 2007.
  • Dolan also confirms that the Indians offered a four-year, $43MM deal to outfielder Shane Victorino, who ended up going to the Red Sox for three years and $39MM.
  • Dolan says he didn't want to worry much about the possibility of Bourn's four-year, $48MM deal turning out badly, but the Indians' history with long-term contracts gives him pause. "We've not had good luck with some of our longer deals," he says. That includes pacts with Travis Hafner, Jake Westbrook and Kerry Wood.
  • Pluto notes that season-ticket sales are up since the signings of Bourn and Swisher, but Dolan says that the Indians "will lose money" in 2013. Dolan views the team's offseason spending splurge as an investment in its future.

AL Central Notes: Tigers, Twins, Hicks, Indians

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Here's a look at tonight's news out of the AL Central..

  • Tigers right-hander Bruce Rondon struck out two and did not issue a walk this afternoon in what was his best outing of the Grapefruit League season so far.  In fact, if the rookie had thrown this well in his previous outings, the Tigers would probably feel more confident about their closer situation, writes Chris Iott of MLive.com.  The Tigers are said to be scouring the trade market in search of a proven ninth-inning option.
  • When asked if whether starting the service time clock will play a role in whether prospect Aaron Hicks makes team, Twins General Manager Terry Ryan responded, "Not here," according to Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com (on Twitter).  Recently, our own Ben Nicholson-Smith looked at service time considerations for Hicks and other top prospects across baseball.
  • The pain of a 68-94 season was the Indians' motivating factor in going out and getting Michael Bourn, Nick Swisher, Mark Reynolds, and Brett Myers, CEO Paul Dolan told Terry Pluto of The Plain Dealer.  "We didn't want to go through something like that again," he said. "In some ways, it was a shock we needed."
Twins GM Terry Ryan on whether service time/arbitration will play role in whether Hicks makes team: "Not here."
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