Trade Candidate: Matthew Boyd
Left-hander Matthew Boyd has been one of the most talked-about trade candidates in baseball dating back to last season, yet the Tigers haven’t been willing to part with him thus far. Boyd seemed to come up on MLBTR’s pages every day last July leading up to the trade deadline, though rumors centering on him have been few and far between this offseason. As of a few weeks ago, Tigers general manager Al Avila wasn’t “actively” looking to move Boyd, one of the most valuable players on a Detroit team that has little chance to push for contention in the near term.
Since that report on Boyd broke, the upper end of the free-agent class for starting pitchers has emptied out. Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Zack Wheeler, Madison Bumgarner, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel and Cole Hamels, among others, have come off the board in recent weeks. That leaves … Alex Wood (?) as the best starter left in free agency. Needless to say, if you didn’t sign any of the top starters on the open market but still need help in your rotation, a trade’s likely your best bet at this point. So, there should be plenty of teams clamoring for Boyd.
As MLBTR’s Jeff Todd explained earlier this week, when combining trade value and trade probability, Boyd may be the likeliest starter in the game to wind up on the move before the season. As was mentioned before, the Tigers figure to stay close to the bottom of the league for at least a little while longer, which is one reason it makes sense to give up Boyd now. Likewise, the lack of better starters on the open market ought to help Detroit’s cause if it tries to deal him. The soon-to-be 29-year-old Boyd does have three seasons’ arbitration eligibility left, so the Tigers could be content to keep him. However, Boyd’s getting more expensive (he’s due a projected $6.4MM in 2020) and might be difficult to extend with Scott Boras as his agent.
All things considered, the next several weeks look like an opportune time for the Tigers to cash in Boyd. Keep in mind this is the same club that held once-coveted righty Michael Fulmer when several teams were interested in him, and after undergoing Tommy John surgery last March, his trade value’s almost nil right now. If the Tigers go the other way with Boyd, there should be plenty of teams willing to offer enticing packages. To name several examples, the Angels, Astros, Phillies, Padres, Dodgers and Braves were all reported to have expressed interest in Boyd over the summer. All of those clubs could still stand to add someone of his ilk to their starting staffs right now.
So, if you’re going to trade for Boyd, what would you be getting? Well, there’s nothing particularly impressive about his career 4.92 ERA/4.66 FIP across 645 1/3 innings. Similarly, neither Boyd’s lifetime 91.4 mph average fastball velocity nor his 92 mph mean from 2019 will scare anyone. But Boyd did find another gear last season in terms of generating swinging strikes, racking up strikeouts and limiting walks. Hitters whiffed on 14 percent of his pitches, up from the 9 to 10 percent range during prior seasons. Moreover, Boyd took down 11.56 batters per nine via the K and handed out free passes at a personal-best 2.43 per nine. In all, his 4.76 K/BB ratio ranked 10th in the majors, barely trailing NL Cy Young winner Jacob deGrom and placing him just above the likes of Bumgarner and Clayton Kershaw.
Despite his K/BB brilliance, Boyd still concluded last season with an unspectacular 4.56 ERA/4.32 FIP over 185 1/3 innings. One problem? A lack of ground balls. Boyd induced grounders at a subpar 35.6 percent clip, which rivaled his lifetime mark (34.5) but also helped lead to an unpalatable home run tally. He surrendered long balls on 18.2 percent of flies, up from the 10 to 11 range over the previous two seasons. Of course, teams that are especially sanguine about Boyd could attribute those struggles to a leaguewide increase in HRs. As such, it may not have a negative effect on their interest in swinging a deal for him.
All told, 2019 was a tale of two halves for Boyd. He recorded a terrific 3.57 ERA/3.38 FIP in advance of the All-Star break, which helped fuel one trade rumor after another, before plummeting to a 5.35 ERA/4.57 FIP thereafter. In retrospect, maybe the Tigers should’ve sold high on Boyd in July, but it still seems likely he’d bring back a quality return for the rebuilding club in the coming weeks.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Remaining Needs: AL Central
We’re nearly halfway through what has been a vastly more active offseason than we saw in either of the past two winters. We’ve already checked in on what’s left to do for the five clubs in the NL East and the five in the AL West. Let’s turn the focus to the AL Central as we continue moving through the game’s six divisions…
Minnesota Twins [Offseason Outlook]
Baseball’s most-improved team from 2018 to 2019 entered the offseason in need of a rotation upgrade, and nothing has changed on that front. Several months after broadcasting an intent to pursue “impact” pitching, Minnesota’s rotation is led by a familiar trio: Jose Berrios, Jake Odorizzi and Michael Pineda. Kyle Gibson has departed for the Rangers. Martin Perez signed with the Red Sox. The Twins’ rotation, at present, is thinner than it was for much of the 2019 season, and the top free agents are all off the board to other teams. The Twins will have to get creative in order to make good on that promise of adding an impact arm — particularly since few look to be clearly available on the trade market.
The other question facing the Twins is whether they’ll succeed in their ongoing pursuit of former AL MVP Josh Donaldson. Third base isn’t a “need” for the Twins, but penciling in Donaldson at the hot corner and shifting Miguel Sano to first base deepens the lineup while simultaneously improving the infield defense. And the Twins still have ample funds to spend, even after signing Odorizzi, Pineda, Sergio Romo, Tyler Clippard and Alex Avila. If they miss out on Donaldson, too, president of baseball operations Derek Falvey and GM Thad Levine could be all the more motivated to line up an impact trade.
Cleveland Indians [Offseason Outlook]
The Indians might already have succeeded in their primary goal, as ownership looks intent on further paring back payroll after spending at club-record level in the wake of 2016’s World Series run. Gone is Corey Kluber, and the fact that Cleveland moved him for what is widely regarded as a light return (rather than hanging onto him and exploring the midseason market) suggests that clearing his salary was a key piece of the deal.
The Indians reallocated a bit of the money earmarked for Kluber when they agreed to terms with Cesar Hernandez to serve as the new second baseman. But it’s been radio silence from the Cleveland front office otherwise, despite the team’s reported desire for an outfield upgrade. (Delino DeShields, acquired in the Kluber deal, does not fit that description.) It’s tough to see the Indians ponying up for one of Nicholas Castellanos or Marcell Ozuna, but they could still try to play for someone like Corey Dickerson or perhaps explore a Yasiel Puig reunion. The trade market may be the likelier path.
One would expect that the main narrative around the Indians would be “how can they return to the top of the division,” but it’s instead on whether they’ll trade anyone else after clearing Kluber’s salary. Francisco Lindor‘s name is dominating the rumor mill in recent weeks, and even Mike Clevinger has seen his name pop up. A deal of either player might not be likely but could bring back some MLB-ready talent (while creating another enormous hole to fill). At this point, Cleveland could stand to add an outfielder, a bullpen arm or another starting pitcher, but it’s not clear how much they’re willing to spend to do so.
Chicago White Sox [Offseason Outlook]
Far and away the most active club in the division — if not in all of baseball — the White Sox have overhauled a roster that now includes Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez and Nomar Mazara (all after agreeing to an extension with Jose Abreu). You can debate the extent to which those moves have improved the roster, but there’s no denying that the South Siders will enter 2020 with a markedly better club (especially when considering the looming promotions of center fielder Luis Robert and second baseman Nick Madrigal).
Frankly, the heavy lifting is mostly complete for GM Rick Hahn and his staff — but don’t expect them to just sit back and wait for Opening Day. The Sox could still look to add a low-cost veteran in center or at second to bridge the gap to those aforementioned top prospects (and to serve as insurance, should they sustain an injury or struggle to adapt to the Majors). The team’s bench looks quite thin at the moment as well. In the bullpen, there’s little certainty beyond the top two names (Alex Colome and Aaron Bummer), so it’s only sensible to add a reliever or two to the fray as they look to build a deeper club capable of postseason contention. It’ll be worth keeping an eye out for some Spring Training extensions for younger players as well.
Kansas City Royals [Offseason Outlook]
The Royals have hired a new manager (Mike Matheny) and bought low on some former top prospects (Maikel Franco, Chance Adams). The signing of Franco and acquisition of Adams are both perfectly sensible moves for a rebuilding club to make, and a few more pickups along those lines wouldn’t be a surprise. But the Royals never figured to be aggressive in free agency this winter, as they’re clearly more focused on winning in 2021-22 than they are in 2020. There’s clearly room to add to the rotation or bullpen later in the offseason, should a good value present itself, but the Royals are also hopeful that several of their best pitching prospects will surface in the Majors in 2020.
Given the team’s current long-term approach, it’s surprising that the soon-to-turn-31 Whit Merrifield isn’t more available on the trade market. However, general manager Dayton Moore has steadfastly maintained that he expects Merrifield to be a part of the Royals’ next competitive club and has resisted all offers dating back to last offseason. The Royals locked Merrifield up to a very affordable extension last winter, and the club could conceivably explore long-term arrangements with the likes of Adalberto Mondesi or Jorge Soler this spring.
Detroit Tigers [Offseason Outlook]
Rebuilding or not, the Tigers opted to add some thump to their lineup earlier this month when they signed both C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop to matching one-year deals. Scooping up the Twins’ right-side infield tandem gives the Tigers some lineup depth and a pair of potential trade chips to flip this summer; a few other short-term moves along those lines could very well play out.
The pitching staff, in particular, looks ripe for short-term upgrades (both in the ‘pen and in the rotation). A one-year flier on an Alex Wood or Jimmy Nelson type could pay dividends. Last year’s attempts at turning Tyson Ross and Matt Moore into coveted trade pieces didn’t pan out, but those results shouldn’t push the club away from trying what was a sound strategy once again.
The biggest question surrounding the Tigers is whether Matthew Boyd will be with the club to open the season. Boyd is widely known to be available and has drawn interest from plenty of clubs dating back to the July trade deadline. He’s controlled for another three seasons and emerged as one of the game’s premier strikeout pitchers in 2019, though home runs inflated his ERA. Some teams are surely hopeful, though, that if there’s a correction to last season’s juiced ball, Boyd can take another step forward and cement himself as a high-end rotation cog. There’s no urgency to trade him, but the Tigers will continue to explore the market to see if someone will overwhelm them.
AL Notes: Biggio, Red Sox, Boyd, Angels
We’ll round up a few stories and notes from around the American League on this Christmas afternoon.
- Cavan Biggio could be in line to bounce around the diamond next season for the Blue Jays. The 24-year-old has no problem donning different gloves, he tells Kaitlyn McGrath of the Athletic. Biggio came up as a second baseman, although questions about his defense there dogged him consistently as a prospect. Last year, Biggio logged MLB starts at first base, second base, left field, and right field, although most of his work indeed came at the keystone. Now, he’d be amenable to logging time at third base and/or in center field next season, too. General Manager Ross Atkins has previously floated Biggio as a possibility to help solidify the Jays’ questionable center field mix, McGrath notes. Manager Charlie Montoyo will surely be looking for ways to get Biggio’s potent bat into the lineup. Thanks to elite plate discipline, Biggio compiled a strong .234/.364/.429 line (114 wRC+) as a rookie.
- First-year Red Sox pitching coach Dave Bush sat down for a Q&A with Jen McCaffrey of the Athletic. He explains that the organization reached out to him to replace Dana LeVangie, rather than his ardently pursuing the position. That should ensure some continuity on the pitching side, as Bush has spent the past three seasons in Boston’s player development department. The longtime Brewer reiterated that Chris Sale is back on a normal offseason program and praised new signee Martín Pérez’s reliability. He also hinted that the organization could further tinker with Pérez’s pitch mix in hopes of unlocking some upside. A new cutter helped Pérez jump off to a fast start in 2019 with the Twins, but a brutal second half led Minnesota to decline his team option.
- The Tigers aren’t actively looking to move staff ace Matthew Boyd, who still has three years of team control remaining. With the free agent market for starting pitching drying up, however, it’s natural to wonder if the teams who lost out on the top hurlers could reengage the Tigers on one of baseball’s prime trade candidates. One such team is the Angels, who have added Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran to their rotation, but still have room to upgrade. The club is monitoring the trade market, Jon Paul Morosi of MLB.com tweeted Monday, but the Angels and Tigers haven’t had any recent discussions on Boyd. Of course, there’s ample time for the sides to recommence talks regarding the 28-year-old, who ranked 11th among starters (minimum 100 innings) in strikeout minus walk rate in 2019.
AL Notes: McCullers, Cron, Schoop, Orioles
Lance McCullers Jr. has “been dying” to return to the mound, and “is ready for the season to start tomorrow if it could,” the Astros righty tells MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart. Recovery from Tommy John surgery in November 2018 kept McCullers sidelined for all of last season, though he said he is on track for Spring Training and Opening Day after completing his rehab last month. McCullers’ return will be a boost to an Astros rotation that has already lost Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley in free agency, and the 26-year-old is still looking to fully break out in what would be his fifth MLB season. Injuries have limited the former 41st-overall pick to just 453 2/3 innings in his career, though McCullers has pitched well (3.67 ERA, 10.1 K/9, 2.86 K/BB rate) when healthy and has both an impressive postseason resume and an All-Star appearance to his name.
More Christmas Day notes from the American League…
- Jonathan Schoop and C.J. Cron are both looking forward to new opportunities in the Motor City, as the two newest Tigers told reporters (including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News). In Cron’s case, he said the Tigers “were on me from the beginning” after the first baseman was non-tendered by the Twins. “The thing that stood out the most was just how much Detroit wanted me….They told my agent early on they wanted me to be a part of this thing and their persistence never stopped,” Cron said. “Anytime somebody wants you that bad, it feels good and it made my interest higher and higher.”
- Several Orioles questions are addressed by The Athletic’s Dan Connolly (subscription required) during a reader mailbag piece, including the issue of just how much financial support GM Mike Elias has at his disposal as he rebuilds the roster. For example, Baltimore’s decision to trade Jonathan Villar to the Marlins for a fairly minimal prospect return created the impression that the O’s were more concerned with getting Villar’s $10.4MM projected arbitration salary off the books than they were in getting full value back for the talented infielder. In Connolly’s view, “Elias’ hands are tied more than he would have preferred,” perhaps due to such factors as low attendance at Camden Yards and the likelihood that the Orioles will have to start more evenly sharing their MASN broadcast revenue with the Nationals. It doesn’t seem that the O’s will be able to explore such tactics as offering to take a bad contract off another team’s hands if that team also includes some prospects in the trade. That said, it isn’t as if the Orioles are running a total bare-bones operation — Connolly notes that ownership has invested in the Orioles’ infrastructure, giving Elias more modernized analytics and international scouting departments.
Tigers To Sign C.J. Cron
The Detroit Tigers have completed their coup of the Twins’ right side, agreeing to a one-year deal with first baseman C.J. Cron, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. This deal matches the one made with Schoop, coming in at $6.1MM, per Fenech and MLB Insider Jeff Passan. The Tigers have announced the deal with Cron, represented by Moye Sports Associates.
Cron joins his third club in as many seasons after being non-tendered in back-to-back winters by the Rays and Twins, respectively. The Twins claimed Cron from Tampa and paid him $4.8MM last season, but balked at the $7.7MM salary he was projected to earn through arbitration. Cron ends up getting a raise from the Tigers, though still coming in under his projected arbitration mark.
The trepidation over paying Cron stems from the fairly limited skillset offered by the slugging first baseman. The power is legit, as Cron has put together back-to-back seasons with an ISO north of .200 – but as with his once-and-future teammate Jonathan Schoop, the power comes with below-average walk rates and a batting average consistently in the neighborhood of .250 (he’s a .258 BA career hitter).
Cron did post an above-average barrel rate rate in 2019, but he also suffered some bad luck with a .277 BABIP that fell well below his average rate of .293. In his one year in Minnesota, Cron hit .253/.311/.469 with 25 home runs and 78 RBIs while helping the Twins to the AL Central crown.
Along with Schoop, Cron brings much-needed pop to the right side of the Tigers infield and gives them some potential trade chips come July. To make room for the Cron and Schoop signings, Brandon Dixon has been designated for assignment, the team announced. Coincidentally, Dixon led the Tigers with 15 home runs last season, a mark that both Schoop and Cron topped with the Twins. The Tigers 40-man roster is currently full.
Tigers To Sign Jonathan Schoop
The Detroit Tigers are “in agreement” with free agent second baseman Jonathan Schoop, per The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal. It’s a one-year deal worth $6.1MM plus performance bonuses for Schoop, a client of VC Sports Group. Rosenthal notes that the Tigers plan on utilizing Schoop in the middle of the order as their everyday second baseman. The Tigers have announced the deal.
Schoop stays in the American League where he has spent his entire career save the couple months in Milwaukee following the 2018 trade deadline. He enjoyed a bit of a return to form with the Twins last season, though come playoff time, the Twins turned to rookie Luis Arraez to man the keystone.
On the one hand, the Twins are probably satisfied with the return they got from Schoop on a one year, $7.5MM base deal. He put forth a .256/.304/.473 line with 23 home runs in 464 plate appearances, amassing 1.8 bWAR/1.3 fWAR. The 28-year-old graded out as an average or slightly below-average defender at second base by UZR and DRS.
On the other hand, a slight pay cut likely signals that teams aren’t seeing the upside that once accompanied Schoop, whose 5.2 bWAR season in 2017 with the Orioles suggested superstar potential. That season seems more and more anomalous the further it moves in the rearview.
Still, a 100 wRC+ pegs him right around league-average as an offensive contributor. Schoop will likely join with Niko Goodrum to form the everyday double play duo in Detroit next season, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck. The pair certainly offers a higher-upside play than the veteran duo of Jordy Mercer and Josh Harrison that started up the middle on Opening Day of 2018.
The move also buys development time for Willi Castro and Sergio Alcantara. Castro struggled mightily in his first taste of the big leagues, hitting just .230/.284/.340 in a 30-game sample. He’ll be in the infield mix this season, but Schoop gives the Tigers the flexibility to be patient with a young group of position players prospects.
Tigers Sign Zack Godley
The Tigers announced that they have signed righty Zack Godley. He’ll receive a minor-league deal with an invitation to participate in MLB camp.
There’s a $1.5MM salary if Godley can crack the roster, with another $1.5MM in available incentives, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets. Godley also receives a March 23rd opt-out date to force the Tigers’ hand. If all goes well Godley can elect free agency at season’s end rather than being subject to the arbitration process.
Godley looks to be an intriguing buy-low candidate for the Detroit organization. He has at times demonstrated an intriguing blend of skills that could make him quite a valuable starter. But more recent struggles forced the 29-year-old into a make-good, minor-league arrangement.
Last year, Godley limped through 92 innings of 5.97 ERA pitching, generating only 6.9 K/9 to go with 4.1 BB/9 and a 43.0% groundball rate. That was a far cry from his excellent 2017 season, when he ran up 155 frames of 3.37 ERA ball while striking out 9.6 and walking only 3.1 per nine and generating grounders at a hefty 55.3% rate. Godley wasn’t quite as effective in 2018 but still carried sub-4.00 FIP and xFIP numbers.
Godley has been hampered of late by a loss of fastball velocity, though it did trend up over the course of the season. He also increasingly experimented late in the ’19 campaign with abandoning his frequently used curve in favor of his cutter. Whether he’s already on track or still needs to find the right tweak, Godley will have to find a way to reverse the trends. If he can return to generating a combination of a 13+% swinging-strike rate and 50+% groundball rate, as he did in 2017, he could become a nice trade chip. If not, the Tigers will at least hope Godley can fill some innings in a respectable manner.
Tigers Sign Shao-Ching Chiang
The Tigers announced that they’ve inked a minor-league deal with righty Shao-Ching Chiang. It comes with an invitation to MLB camp.
Chiang, a 26-year-old hurler, originally signed with the Indians out of his native Taiwan. He steadily moved up the ladder in the Cleveland system but ran into headwinds as he reached the upper tiers in recent campaigns.
Last season, Chiang repeated the Triple-A level without earning a call-up to the bigs. He has recorded 195 2/3 innings of 5.11 ERA ball with 7.7 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 at the highest level of the minors. Chiang became a minor-league free agent at the conclusion of the 2019 season.
Tigers Sign Austin Romine
The Tigers signed their first free agent of the winter Friday, announcing a one-year pact with catcher Austin Romine. The Moye Sports Associate client will reportedly be guaranteed $4.1MM and looks to be in line to see an increased workload with the Tigers — the same club that employed his brother, Andrew Romine, from 2014-17.
“Signing an experienced catcher was high on our list of offseason priorities, and we believe Austin will have an impact both on the field and in the clubhouse,” GM Al Avila said in a press release. “He’s a proven leader and game caller who has earned respect around the league for the tenacious and passionate manner in which he plays the game.”
Romine, 31, has been a steady contributor to the Yankees for some time now. While he was the clear number two in New York, he got a good bit of action in recent years when Gary Sanchez was sidelined. Though he carried a dismal track record with the bat until recently, Romine has trended up in the past two seasons, slashing .262/.302/.428 with 18 long balls in 505 plate appearances since the start of the 2018 season.
Romine has graded as a below-average framer but obviously impressed the Yanks with his overall abilities on the defensive side of the equation. He’s thwarted 28 percent of stolen-base attempts against him over the past two seasons while posting above-average numbers in terms of blocking pitches in the dirt, per Baseball Prospectus. Romine will surely be called upon to handle a big chunk of the time behind the dish in Detroit while helping younger backstops Grayson Greiner and Jake Rogers learn the ropes.
George A. King III of the New York Post first reported the deal (via Twitter). MLB.com’s Jason Beck and MLive.com’s Evan Woodberry added financial details (Twitter links).
AL Central Notes: Donaldson, Edwin, Shaw, Fulmer, Tigers
Some rumblings from the AL Central…
- Reports surfaced a few weeks ago that the Twins “kicked the tires” on Josh Donaldson and other third basemen, and La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune writes that the Twins have continued to show interest in Donaldson’s services. With Anthony Rendon now wearing Angels red, Minnesota will face some stiff competition for the best third baseman remaining on the market, as the Rangers and Nationals are among the clubs who are reportedly set to redirect their efforts towards signing Donaldson are coming up short on Rendon.
- The White Sox have met with Edwin Encarnacion‘s agents, 670 The Score’s Bruce Levine reports (Twitter link). After already adding Yasmani Grandal and Nomar Mazara, signing Encarnacion would add even more pop to Chicago’s lineup, as he would pair with Jose Abreu (and Grandal, on days when Grandal isn’t catching) in the first base/DH mix. The Blue Jays are the only other team known to have some interest in Encarnacion this offseason, though Levine reports that Encarnacion’s camp has also met with two other teams, and MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that Encarnacion has received interest from six clubs overall — five in the American League and one in the National League. The mystery NL team made Encarnacion an offer, according to Heyman, though the veteran slugger has said he would prefer to remain in the AL.
- The Tigers are one of the teams interested in Travis Shaw, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports (via Twitter). Shaw was non-tendered by the Brewers last week, as Shaw’s disastrous 2019 season left Milwaukee wary of paying the infielder a projected $4.7MM arbitration salary. In 2017-18, however, Shaw hit .258/.347/.497 with 63 homers over 1193 PA for the Brew Crew, so he could be an intriguing buy-low candidate for several clubs. In particular, a rebuilding team like Detroit could certainly see the rebound potential in Shaw, who can play either corner infield position and also has experience at second base.
- Tigers GM Al Avila provided reporters (including MLB.com’s Jason Beck) with an update on right-hander Michael Fulmer, who is “on track” in his recovery from Tommy John surgery and “should be able to pitch in games sometime in July.” Fulmer underwent his procedure last March, so a July return would be slightly beyond the normal 12-15 month timeframe for TJ patients, though not by any unusual amount.