Coaching Notes: Bosio, Honeycutt, Espada, Padres
The latest on some coaching vacancies (or potential vacancies) around baseball…
- The Tigers are “close” to hiring Chris Bosio as their next pitching coach, Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets. The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal previously reported that Bosio was Detroit’s top choice for the job. Bosio worked as the Cubs’ pitching coach for the previous six seasons before being fired after Chicago’s elimination in the NLCS.
- It isn’t yet certain if longtime Dodgers pitching coach Rick Honeycutt will remain in his current job in 2018, Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times reports. Honeycutt’s two-year contract is up after the World Series and, at the time of the contract’s signing, it was believed that Honeycutt would into a front office job at deal’s end. GM Farhan Zaidi, however, said that “If there’s mutual interest in him continuing in this role, I wouldn’t rule it out,” noting that “We just want to leverage his expertise and experience however we can, with whatever [job] makes the most sense.” Both Zaidi and Honeycutt said that no decisions would be made until after the season is over, with Honeycutt adding “I’m enjoying it as much this year as I ever have. I still enjoy what I do.”
- Yankees third base coach Joe Espada could be a candidate to be the next bench coach for either the Astros or Red Sox, George A. King III of the New York Post writes. Espada has worked in his current role for three seasons, and has previously worked as a Yankees scout, a manager in the Puerto Rican Winter League and as a minor league coach in the Marlins organization. Espada has also been mentioned as a potential contender for the Yankees’ managerial vacancy.
- The Padres will move first base coach Johnny Washington to the assistant hitting coach role and outfield coach Jon Matthews has been reassigned to a new role, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports (Twitter links). 2017 was Washington’s only season as a first base coach; he spent the rest of his nine-year coaching career as a hitting coach at various levels of the Dodgers’ and Padres’ farm systems. Lin notes that the Padres will fill their first base coaching vacancy from within the organization.
Avila On Tigers’ Approach In Free Agency
More typically known for their aggressive spending on the free-agent market, the Tigers appear likely to take a very reserved approach to free agency for a second consecutive offseason, reports MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery. General manager Al Avila tells Woodbery that he’ll be “looking for Major League free agents that are maybe bargains” and suggests that Detroit might not make any additions until January or later.
[Related: Detroit Tigers Offseason Outlook | Detroit Tigers Payroll]
A quiet offseason for the Tigers on the free-agent front has long looked likely with the team embarking on an aggressive rebuild and working to pare back its payroll. Detroit has already parted ways with Cameron Maybin, Justin Wilson, Justin Upton and Justin Verlander in the past calendar year, and it seems extremely likely that longtime second baseman Ian Kinsler and the final year of his contract will be on the move this offseason as well. In making those moves, the Tigers have seen their total of guaranteed contracts owed in 2018 fall from $138MM to $97MM — a number that will fall to $86MM if Kinsler is indeed traded.
As Woodbery points out, the fact that the Tigers are looking to be opportunistic doesn’t mean they won’t spend at all. Detroit will have needs in the outfield, the bullpen and at the back of the rotation, after all, and the asking prices of remaining free agents often begin to come down after the New Year. While many Tigers fans will bristle at the notion of a bargain-bin approach after years of contending atop the AL Central, it’d be virtually impossible to patch the holes that permeate the team’s roster in a single trip through free agency.
While the Tigers’ record doesn’t reflect this, they actually had a fair amount of success with a similar approach last winter. Alex Avila was the team’s lone MLB signing, and he was flipped alongside Wilson to the Cubs in the trade that netted a potential cornerstone piece in Jeimer Candelario. The Detroit front office also eschewed free agency entirely when pursuing a center field addition, ultimately acquiring Mikie Mahtook from the Rays for right-hander Drew Smith (now with the Mets following another trade). Mahtook hit .276/.330/.457 with a dozen homers in 379 PAs and can be controlled for another four seasons. The Tigers also received a solid year at the plate from minor league signee Alex Presley in 2017.
There will likely be a dozen or so starting pitchers that sign one-year commitments this offseason, giving the Tigers a number of options to pursue. Some speculative one-year candidates on the 2017-18 free agent market include Chris Tillman, Brett Anderson, Jeremy Hellickson, Hector Santiago, Francisco Liriano and old friend Doug Fister. The bullpen market contains even more options for Detroit to pursue, and that market, in particular, seems to net several late-offseason bargains on an annual basis.
Quick Hits: Ichiro, Yankees, D’Backs, Gardenhire
Happy birthday to Ichiro Suzuki, as the future Hall-of-Famer turns 44 years old today. Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald takes a look at Ichiro’s offseason training regimen, though “offseason” may not be the correct term since the outfielder has continued to work out at Marlins Park almost every day since the season ended. Near-daily training has been a staple of almost every offseason for Suzuki — he took a month off in 2005 but tells Spencer via an interpreter that “my body just didn’t feel like my own body. My body was, like, sick.” Ichiro has long been known for his incredible fitness regime, and he doesn’t appear to be stopping anytime soon, as he has said that he hopes to keep playing into his 50s.
Here’s the latest from around baseball…
- With the Yankees making a deep postseason run this year, Joel Sherman of the New York Post has a few suggestions on what the club must now do to cement itself as a World Series contender. The list includes signing Shohei Otani, cutting down on strikeouts, re-signing CC Sabathia, reinforcing the bullpen by signing Mike Minor, and trading a high-paid veteran to ensure that the team gets under the $197MM luxury tax threshold. Sherman also floats the idea of shifting Gary Sanchez into a part-time DH role with Otani, which then necessitates signing a backup catcher capable of handling a workload of around 60 games.
- The Diamondbacks‘ roster is broken down by Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic, who looks at both 2018 salary (hat tip to Piecoro for citing MLBTR’s arbitration projections) and each player’s role on next year’s club. With payroll size still an issue for the D’Backs, players such as Patrick Corbin or even A.J. Pollock could come up in trade talks since both will be free agents in the 2018-19 offseason. Brandon Drury or Nick Ahmed are cheaper but could also potentially be shopped due to a logjam of other infield options. Piecoro predicts Arizona will exercise its $2MM club option on Daniel Descalso since the veteran “was a big part of the clubhouse culture.”
- The Tigers‘ choice of Ron Gardenhire as the team’s next manager “was a solid hire. It was a safe one, too,” The Athletic’s Katie Strang writes (subscription required and recommended). Both Gardenhire and Tigers GM Al Avila are under contract through 2020, so there is no small sense that Avila’s own job security will be scrutinized as the Tigers undergo a lengthy rebuild. Strang also shares some details on the Tigers’ managerial search, which included a wide variety of candidates but seemed to wrap up quickly (before even a second round of interviews) once Gardenhire emerged as the top contender.
Tigers Inform Anibal Sanchez His Option Will Be Declined
In a widely expected move, the Tigers will decline their $16MM option on right-hander Anibal Sanchez in favor of a $5MM buyout, general manager Al Avila told reporters today (Twitter link via Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press). Sanchez will become a free agent once the option is formally bought out following the World Series.
The 33-year-old Sanchez signed a five-year, $80MM contract with the Tigers that spanned the 2013-17 seasons and turned in a sensational campaign in the first year of that deal. In 182 innings that year, Sanchez captured the American League ERA title with a mark of 2.57, averaging 10.0 K/9 against 2.7 BB/9 along the way. He finished fourth in the AL Cy Young voting and was worth roughly six wins above replacement per both fWAR and rWAR. Though he was limited to 126 innings in 2014, Sanchez was again quite good, logging a 3.43 ERA with improved control but diminished strikeouts.
Since contributing about nine wins’ worth of value in those first two seasons, though, the Sanchez contract has been regrettable for the Tigers. He’s logged a total of 415 2/3 innings in that time and surrendered 262 earned runs (5.67 ERA) on the strength of 462 hits (85 homers) and 131 walks. Sanchez still shows a penchant for missing bats (8.2 K/9 over the final three years of the deal, 8.9 K/9 in 2017), but his ground-ball rate has eroded and he’s become stunningly homer prone.
[Detroit Tigers Depth Chart | Detroit Tigers Payroll Outlook]
The rebuilding Tigers, who introduced Ron Gardenhire as their new manager earlier today, will happily shed that $16MM annual commitment from their books and turn to younger rotation options. In 2018, they’ll likely lean on Michael Fulmer, Daniel Norris, Matthew Boyd and veteran Jordan Zimmermann (who is on an undesirable contract himself) in the first four spots of their rotation. While the Tigers have several in-house options for that fifth spot, they’re also in a nice position to take a flyer on a veteran reclamation project in hopes of flipping him for some value at next year’s trade deadline, as I examined in their installment of MLBTR’s Offseason Outlook series.
With Sanchez off the books, the Tigers still have $97MM owed to four current players (Miguel Cabrera, Zimmermann, Victor Martinez and Ian Kinsler) and two former players (Prince Fielder, Justin Verlander). The Tigers also have another $25MM worth of projected arbitration salaries, per MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. An offseason trade of Kinsler and/or the non-tendering or trades of an arbitration-eligible player or two would obviously alter that payroll projection.
As for Sanchez, he’ll hit the open market in search of a spot to restore his value — very likely on a one-year deal with a low base salary or on a minor league pact. While he struggled as both a starter and reliever this season, Sanchez did post very solid K/BB numbers throughout the year — particularly upon returning from a month-long stint in Triple-A. He enjoyed solid eight-start run upon his return from the minors (4.37 ERA, 3.89 FIP, 37-to-10 K/BB ratio in 45 1/3 innings) and finished out the year with 23 innings of 2.70 ERA ball and a 31-to-7 K/BB ratio.
Suffice it to say, Sanchez was the picture of inconsistency in 2017 — often showing glimpses of his former excellence but also too frequently giving the Tigers little chance to compete. He yielded four or more earned runs in eight of his 17 starts and five or more earned runs on five occasions. Sanchez also posted the worst HR/9 mark of any pitcher with 100 or more innings in 2017 (2.22), and no starter with at least 400 innings has been as homer-prone as Sanchez (1.84 HR/9) dating back to the 2015 season.
Tigers Sign Ron Gardenhire To Three-Year Contract
11:30am: The Tigers have formally announced the hiring of Gardenhire, noting that he has indeed signed a three-year contract with the club.
OCT. 20, 7:40am: The Tigers have scheduled a press conference for 1pm ET today to announce the hiring.
OCT. 19: Ron Gardenhire has agreed to a three-year deal to become the Tigers’ next manager, per Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). The deal could be announced tomorrow; Detroit’s decision to tab the veteran skipper was first reported earlier today by Ken Rosenthal and Katie Strang of The Athletic (subscription required and recommended).
Detroit will install the widely respected 59-year-old in the dugout in place of Brad Ausmus, whom the club decided not to retain past the present season. Gardenhire previously managed the division-rival Twins and most recently served as the Diamondbacks’ bench coach. He also fought through a diagnosis of prostate cancer earlier this year, returning to help guide the Diamondbacks to a successful season.
At last check, Tigers GM Al Avila had cast a wide net in lining up options. While there was no prior indication that a decision was looming, Detroit obviously decided to go ahead with Gardenhire, perhaps due in some part to ongoing competition with other organizations. Gardenhire was also under consideration for the Red Sox job, though that is expected to go to Alex Cora.
After moving on from Ausmus, who was a rookie skipper when he signed on, the Tigers have indicated a clear preference for a candidate with prior time as a MLB manager. Gardenhire certainly checks that box. He spent thirteen years running things for the Twins, beginning in 2012. That tenure spanned quite a few good years, including a run of six postseason appearances in nine years, though the team’s performance fell off sharply in his final four campaigns.
Gardy ultimately delivered a 1,068-and-1,039 win/loss record during his time in Minnesota, which wrapped up after the 2014 campaign. He failed to guide the team into the World Series and only made it out of the divisional round once despite the run of regular season success.
In any event, postseason considerations likely won’t be much of a factor early in Gardenhire’s tenure with Detroit. The team is only just embarking upon a rebuilding effort that is likely to take several seasons to come to fruition, after all, placing it more in the situation that the Twins found themselves in back in 2011 — the first year of the four-season run of misery. Gardenhire, then, has his share of experience in bringing along younger players through a rebuilding stage. While he ultimately was cut loose in Minnesota, perhaps some of his efforts are beginning to bear fruit there.
It’ll be interesting to see how this relationship works out. Avila had suggested a need for a new approach from a new skipper, but evidently was not referring to a strong sabermetric predilection. Gardenhire brings a reputation as an old-school manager, after all. As Joe Posnanski wrote at the end of his tenure in Minnesota: “Gardy comes from the Tom Kelly school — he was the valedictorian of the Tom Kelly school — where managers grump and demand and instill and bunt too much and occasionally fall in love with limited but gritty players.” That said, Gardenhire is also said to carry a new “openness” to modern analytics after his year with the D-Backs, Morosi tweets. Avila and the Tigers are betting that approach will help foster the growth of a new core and ultimately guide the team back into contention.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
The Tigers’ Managerial Search
The Tigers were the first team to cut ties with their manager at season’s end, announcing with less than a week of the regular season to play that Brad Ausmus would not return as the team’s skipper. Ausmus was allowed to finish out the season at the helm — though Ian Kinsler was allowed to manage the team on the final day — but since the announcement, there have been plenty of names flying around in connection with the new job opening.
In an effort to consolidate the myriad reports on Detroit’s managerial vacancy into one place, we’ll track preliminary candidates, those that have interviewed and those that are no longer in the running all in this post and update accordingly as the search progresses.
Will Interview/Have Interviewed
- Cubs bench coach Dave Martinez has also interviewed for the Tigers’ opening, reports FanRag’s Jon Heyman, who also notes that Detroit’s search is down from an initial list of 50 to 10 candidates. Heyman initially identified Rockies bench coach Mike Redmond as a candidate (as noted below), and he now confirms that Redmond has indeed interviewed for the post.
- Ron Gardenhire is on the list of the Tigers’ upcoming interviews and is a “strong candidate,” according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press. Fenech notes that the Tigers will face some competition, namely from the Red Sox, however. There are those who feel that Avila will ultimately hire a younger manager to handle a younger team, per Fenech, though Fenech also adds that he polled a number of industry contacts that feel Gardenhire is capable of connecting with a young group regardless of age.
- ESPN’s Marly Rivera reports that the Tigers will interview Astros bench coach Alex Cora as part of their first wave of external interviews (Twitter link). Cora is an in-demand managerial candidate, as he’s already been linked to the Mets and Red Sox. An interview doesn’t seem likely to take place while Cora’s Astros are still playing in the postseason, one wouldn’t think.
- MLB.com’s Jason Beck has previously reported that the Tigers will interview Marlins bench coach Fredi Gonzalez and White Sox third base coach Joe McEwing. Gonzalez, of course, has recently served as the Marlins’ manager as well as the manager of the Braves. McEwing doesn’t have big league managerial experience, but he’s come up as a candidate in years past and has been connected to the Mets already as well.
- Fenech reported early this month that the Tigers have already conducted interviews with a trio of in-house candidates: hitting coach Lloyd McClendon, first base coach Omar Vizquel and third base coach Dave Clark. McClendon has had multiple big league stints as a manager, with the Pirates (2001-05) and the Mariners (2014-15).
Preliminary Candidates (Interview Status Still Unknown)
- The Tigers are interested in Red Sox first base coach Ruben Amaro Jr., according to FanRag’s Jon Heyman. Amaro is obviously best known as the former GM of the Phillies, but he’s interested in managing and now has two years of experience on a big league staff to go along with an understanding of the day-to-day operations of a front office. As Heyman notes, he’s an outside-the-box candidate, but the Tigers are known to be casting a wide net.
- Heyman has also previously reported that the Tigers have interest in Rockies bench coach Mike Redmond. The longtime backup catcher for the Marlins and Twins, Redmond is also a former Marlins manager but has yet to get a second opportunity to manage at the big league level.
- Jon Morosi of MLB.com has previously listed Angels bench coach Dino Ebel and Royals catching instructor Pedro Grifol as managerial possibilities in Detroit. Heyman, meanwhile has previously linked them to Rays third base coach Charlie Montoyo.
Cafardo’s Latest: V-Mart, Bradley, Hickey, Farrell, Phillies
The chances of Victor Martinez continuing his career may be “touch and go” in the aftermath of heart-related health issues in 2017, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe writes. The Tigers slugger twice suffered irregular heartbeats, the second of which led to chronic ablation surgery in early September that prematurely ended his season. Martinez has one year and $18MM remaining on his original four-year contract with the Tigers, and he turns 39 years old in December, so retirement could potentially not be far away for the veteran. That said, the top priority is Martinez’s health, and everyone around baseball is pulling for Martinez to both make a full recovery and be able to end his career on his own terms, whether after the 2018 season or beyond.
Here’s more from Cafardo’s weekly notes column…
- Jackie Bradley Jr. could be a big commodity on the trade market, as Cafardo opines that the Red Sox could deal Bradley, move Andrew Benintendi to center field and then sign J.D. Martinez to play left field. Boston’s “need for power is so critical,” Cafardo writes, that the Sox may have to take the hit on defense, not to mention the payroll hit of dealing Bradley (controlled via arbitration through the 2020 season) and spending big on Martinez. Cafardo also noted Martinez as a potential Boston target in his column last week, citing the past relationship between Martinez and Dave Dombrowski from their time together in Detroit. The Giants, Phillies, Royals and Braves are all listed as potential suitors if the Red Sox did shop Bradley, and several more teams would certainly check in on the 27-year-old. Bradley took a step backwards at the plate this season, though he posted above-average hitting numbers in 2015-16 and is one of the game’s better defensive players.
- Jim Hickey has drawn a lot of attention for pitching coach vacancies around the sport, though Cafardo writes that some around the game consider Hickey to be a potential managerial candidate. He speculates that “the Mets could take a long look” at Hickey, or potentially the Red Sox as they look to replace another former pitching coach-turned-manager in John Farrell.
- Speaking of Farrell, he could emerge as a contender for one of the open managerial vacancies around the game, or even with the Nationals if they choose to move on from Dusty Baker. One AL executive feels the Nats “would be looking at strongly” if they did make a change in the dugout, though the exec also feels Farrell may take a season away from the game to both increase his job options and perhaps just to take a break from the grind.
- While discussing teams looking for managers, Cafardo makes the interesting comment that “the Phillies still have their sights on” Orioles skipper Buck Showalter. Once Pete Mackanin was reassigned from the manager’s job in Philadelphia, there was some initial speculation about the Phils targeting Showalter given his ties to Andy MacPhail and Matt Klentak. Since then, however, the Phillies have seemingly moved onto other candidates, plus there’s the obvious obstacle of Showalter still being under contract to the Orioles for one more season.
- Speaking of the Phillies job, Cafardo also notes that Red Sox bench coach Gary DiSarcina’s name has come up as a possible candidate. DiSarcina worked for the Angels as a coach and front office assistant during Klentak’s stint with the club as an assistant GM. The longtime former Angels infielder has several years of experience in a variety of front office, coaching and minor league managerial roles with the Halos and Red Sox.
Astros Acquire Juan Ramirez From Tigers To Complete Verlander Trade
The Tigers have announced that they have sent young outfielder Juan Ramirez to the Astros. He becomes the player named to complete the late August blockbuster that sent righty Justin Verlander to Houston.
In exchange for that pair of players, as well as $16MM to cover some of Verlander’s remaining salary, the Tigers picked up a trio of prospects. Righty Franklin Perez, outfielder Daz Cameron, and catcher Jake Rogers were all added to the Detroit farm system.
Coincidentally, the announcement comes on the eve of Verlander’s scheduled ALCS start. The swap has paid dividends for Houston thus far, as the veteran starter has been outstanding. Of course, the Tigers are far better served by interesting young talent than by Verlander at this stage.
Ramirez, now 18, landed with the Detroit organization as an international free agent back in 2015. He landed a $185K bonus to sign out of his native Dominican Republic. Ramirez saw 46 games of action this year in the rookie-level Gulf Coast League, turning in a .301/.385/.362 batting line with twenty walks against just 14 strikeouts. Despite the clear lack of power, that sort of approach holds obvious appeal.
Offseason Outlook: Detroit Tigers
MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams. Click here for the other entries in this series.
With the No. 1 pick in next year’s draft locked up following an aggressive summer fire sale, the Tigers are set for an offseason unlike any Detroit has seen in the past decade — one of a rebuilding team looking toward the future rather than looking toward next season’s playoff race.
Guaranteed Contracts
- Miguel Cabrera: $192MM through 2023
- Jordan Zimmermann: $74MM through 2020
- Victor Martinez: $18MM through 2018
- Ian Kinsler: $11MM through 2018 (salary rises to $12MM if Kinsler wins a Gold Glove Award)
Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)
- Andrew Romine (5.049) – $1.9MM projected salary
- Jose Iglesias (5.036) – $5.6MM
- Alex Presley (4.056) – $1.1MM
- Alex Wilson (4.038) – $2.1MM
- Nicholas Castellanos (4.029) – $7.6MM
- Bruce Rondon (3.097) – $1.2MM
- Shane Greene (3.075) – $1.7MM
- James McCann (3.028) – $2.3MM
- Bryan Holaday (3.025) – $700K
- Blaine Hardy (2.132) – $800K
- Non-tender candidates: Romine, Rondon, Presley, Holaday, Hardy
Option Decisions
- Anibal Sanchez: $16MM club option with a $5MM buyout
Other Financial Obligations
- $8MM to the Astros in 2018 and in 2019 for Justin Verlander
- $6MM to the Rangers in 2018-20 for Prince Fielder
Free Agents
- None
[Detroit Tigers Depth Chart | Detroit Tigers Payroll Outlook]
One calendar year ago, the question facing the Tigers was whether they’d embark on a rebuild or whether they’d take aim at contending with an aging core one more time. The trade of Cameron Maybin on the first day of the 2016-17 offseason pointed toward the former of those two options, but it wasn’t until this past July that the Tigers emphatically made their organizational overhaul a reality. From July 18 through Aug. 31, Detroit traded the likes of J.D. Martinez, Justin Wilson, Alex Avila, Justin Upton and franchise icon Justin Verlander for young players and salary relief.
Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez are the remaining core pieces of the Tigers’ most recent AL Central title in 2014, but that’s not likely to be the case for long. While Cabrera’s albatross contract, significant dip in productivity and pair of herniated disks in his back make him an immovable trade asset, Kinsler will enter the offseason as perhaps the likeliest player in all of baseball to be traded. While he had a down year at the plate, the 35-year-old is affordable in 2018, plays premium defense at second base and brings a wealth of postseason experience to hopeful contenders.
The Angels and Brewers both reportedly had interest in him prior to the non-waiver deadline, and neither is especially settled at second base at present. Other speculative fits include the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Mets. Regardless of the destination, Kinsler seems likely to move for some younger pieces. While the Tigers would love to trade Jordan Zimmermann and Victor Martinez to clear payroll and make room for younger options, both of those contracts seem entirely immovable. Martinez may even simply be a release candidate, per Evan Woodbery of MLive.com.
Aside from Kinsler, the Tigers still possess a few intriguing trade options. Nicholas Castellanos showed interesting power and some upside in his batted-ball profile, but his defense was a disaster both at third base and especially in right field. With a fairly sizable bump in his salary projected, some clubs may not see that much surplus value; certainly a contending team would have reservations about plugging him into third base or right field, though perhaps a team like the Braves that is more on the fringes and still hunting for upside would roll the dice.
Other candidates to be moved include Jose Iglesias and breakout reliever Shane Greene. Iglesias only has a year to go on his deal and hasn’t hit much in the past two seasons, but he’s an affordable superlative defender at a premium position. Contenders in need of infield defense should at least kick the tires. There’s no rush to move Greene, who finished the year as the closer in Detroit, but controllable relief arms are always of interest on the trade market. Greene posted a 2.66 ERA with 9.7 K/9 and a 47.4 percent ground-ball rate in 67 2/3 innings this season, but teams may be wary of his 4.52 BB/9 rate and an 8.6 percent swinging-strike rate that doesn’t gel with his more impressive K/9 mark. He’s a lock to be tendered and could be shopped next summer if he’s not moved in the offseason.
One name that fans of other teams will dream on is 2016 Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer, whose name was frequently speculated upon prior to the non-waiver trade deadline. However, a trade of Fulmer strikes me as decidedly unlikely for a number of reasons, with last month’s elbow surgery chief among them. Impressive as Fulmer’s first two seasons were, teams are going to be reluctant to give maximum value for a player that hasn’t taken the mound since undergoing surgery to reposition his ulnar nerve.
Beyond that, Fulmer is controllable for five more seasons and won’t even reach arbitration eligibility until next winter. The Tigers shouldn’t feel any urgent rush to take the best offer currently presented, and three months of a healthy Fulmer would significantly up his trade stock for next summer’s trading season. Make no mistake about it, Fulmer’s name will pop up on the rumor circuit this winter, but it seems difficult to envision the Tigers and another club reaching the nexus of “fair value” in Detroit’s eyes and a slightly discounted return from a team that will feel it is taking on at least some degree of injury risk.
Turning to what the Tigers could look to actually acquire this offseason, the team is set at a variety of positions. Jeimer Candelario, who came to the Tigers in the return for Wilson and Avila, will get every opportunity to cement himself as a slugging third baseman and one of the future faces of the franchise in 2018. Cabrera will return at first base or designated hitter (depending on what’s done with Martinez), and the club seems likely to go with James McCann and John Hicks again behind the plate rather than invest dollars or prospects in acquiring a new catcher.
Mikie Mahtook performed well enough in center field to earn another look next year, and the team could play Castellanos in the outfield if he’s retained. Still, the Tigers ran out a rather uninspiring group of corner options this winter, so they could look at their unsettled corner situation as a means of catching lightning in a bottle as they did with they signed J.D. Martinez in the first place. Certainly, that’s easier said than done, but looking to the trade market for blocked outfielders (the Cardinals, for instance, have a surplus there) or adding a once-well-regarded player with some youth seem like a better avenue than a veteran stopgap in the Seth Smith or Melky Cabrera mold. Alternatively, the corner outfield opening represents a reasonable spot for the Tigers to take aim with the top pick in this December’s Rule 5 Draft.
Overall, the group of position players leaves some clear and obvious holes: at least one corner outfielder will need to be brought into the mix, and the Tigers look like a team that will eventually acquire some affordable up-the-middle stopgaps in the infield. Dixon Machado could be called upon to man shortstop in the event of an Iglesias trade, but given his lack of track record, at least one infielder (possibly two) that can play shortstop and second base with a bit more offensive upside than Andrew Romine would prove to be useful pursuits. The free-agent market is admittedly somewhat barren, though myriad trade opportunities will present themselves, with Jurickson Profar and Aledmys Diaz among the controllable infield candidates to change hands this winter.
Turning to the pitching staff, Detroit will have Fulmer, Zimmermann, Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd all returning in 2018 (barring trades), but finding a veteran to step into the fifth slot in hopes of eating some innings and eventually turning into a summer trade piece seems prudent. The Tigers could play it safe and look for a fairly reliable source of innings with limited upside (e.g. Ricky Nolasco, Miguel Gonzalez), but they’d be better served to pursue a more boom-or-bust option that could bring back more in a trade (e.g. Chris Tillman). They’re also one of several non-contending teams that could promise righty Miles Mikolas a rotation spot as he looks to return from a strong run in Japan — a move that won’t come with excessive financial risk but could produce a useful trade chip. We haven’t seen this team in this position before, though, so it’s tough to predict exactly which avenue(s) the front office will pursue in rounding out the rotation.
The Tigers’ bullpen is an even larger question mark. Greene is currently the closer, and it’s safe to expect Alex Wilson and probably Daniel Stumpf to return. But Bruce Rondon and Blaine Hardy are likely non-tenders. Drew VerHagen is out of options and could be an offseason 40-man casualty. Top prospect Joe Jimenez looked wildly overmatched in his first season of MLB experience, but he’ll get another crack at some point in 2018. That said, the Tigers have room to add multiple free-agent relievers, and while they’ll probably cast a wide net in adding several rebound candidates on minor league deals, it’d be a surprise if they didn’t bring in at least one arm on a big league deal.
Detroit won’t, and shouldn’t, pay top dollar for any bullpen upgrades, but their complete lack of certainty among the relief corps should give Avila and his staff the ability to be opportunistic late in the winter. With the Tigers unlikely to spend too heavily elsewhere, they could snatch up a few of the relievers who see their markets fall out from underneath them and take lower-than-expected deals in January and February. As with whoever the Tigers settle on for a fifth starter, those free-agent relief acquisitions could very well become trade commodities down the line. If not, they’re unlikely to be expensive and can be cut loose to give opportunities to younger arms.
A year ago at this time, my outlook on the Tigers’ offseason focused on how they could trim payroll while still keeping enough pieces around to contend in 2017. That approach won’t be necessary this winter, and it shouldn’t be a surprise to hear virtually anyone on the Tigers’ active roster surface in trade talks over the next five-plus months. Moves that we haven’t typically associated with the Tigers in the past, such as selecting one or more players in the Rule 5 Draft, buying low on rebound candidates in free agency and trading for change-of-scenery candidates (as they successfully did with Mahtook last offseason) could all be on the table this time around.
It’s a new era in Detroit as the team gears toward a youth movement with the top picks in both the Rule 5 Draft and next June’s amateur draft. The Tigers have already cut the sum of their guaranteed contracts owed in 2018 from $138.1MM this time last year to $97MM at present (not including projected arbitration salaries). That number figures to dip further if and when Kinsler is traded, but that should be just one of many moves in an active offseason for Avila and his staff.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Front Office/Managerial Notes: Marlins, Brewers, Tigers
The latest front office and managerial updates from around the majors:
- Yankees vice president of player development Gary Denbo is leaving the Bombers to become the Marlins’ director of player development and amateur scouting, George A. King III of the New York Post reports (on Twitter). Denbo will work under Michael Hill, who will stay on as the Marlins’ president of baseball operations, Barry Jackson of the Miami Herald tweets. Since a group including former Yankees shortstop Derek Jeter agreed to purchase the Marlins in August, there had been plenty of speculation about Denbo heading to Miami. Denbo served in various capacities during multiple stretches with the Yankees dating back to the 1990s and even managed Jeter in the Gulf Coast League in 1992. The two still have a close relationship, paving the way for Denbo to reunite with Jeter in Miami. The Marlins haven’t requested permission to speak with anyone else from the Yankees’ front office, per Mark Feinsand of MLB.com (Twitter links).
- The Brewers’ David Stearns-led front office has promoted Karl Mueller to vice president of player personnel, Matt Kleine to director of baseball operations and Scott Campbell to special assignment scout, according to a team announcement. Mueller, a 14-year veteran of Milwaukee’s baseball department, spent the past two seasons in Kleine’s new position. Kleine, who’s entering his 12th year with the Brewers, most recently served as their manager of baseball operations. Campbell, yet another longtime member of the organization (he’s entering his 13th year), was the Brewers’ assistant director of video scouting from 2015-17.
- Royals catching instructor Pedro Grifol is an early candidate to become the Tigers’ next manager, Jon Morosi of MLB Network tweets. Grifol has served in that position since 2014. He also has experience as a major league hitting coach (Royals, 2013-14) and a minor league manager (with low-level Mariners affiliates from 2003-05 and in 2012)