New York Notes: Warthen, Severino, Prado, Gardner
Mets pitching coach Dan Warthen was overworked early in his career, writes Tim Rohan of the New York Times. Warthen figured he had torn his UCL back in 1975, but Tommy John had only received his eponymous surgery in 1974. Major league players were paid very little at the time so Warthen couldn’t afford the surgery or a year away from baseball. Instead he worked through the injury and his career ended a few years later at the age of 25. Of course, now it’s his job to make sure his young pitching staff remains healthy and productive for years to come.
Here’s more from that other New York club:
- The Yankees were right to keep top prospect Luis Severino, writes John Harper of the New York Daily News. Severino was one name discussed with the Tigers for David Price. Notably, Price is now 0-6 in six postseason starts with a 5.23 ERA. Scouts believe Severino will soon be the Yankees ace, and he’s under club control for another six seasons. Per one scout, “If you’re talking six or seven years for Price…I’d take Severino anyway.“
- GM Brian Cashman was loathe to part with Martin Prado in the offseason trade for Nathan Eovaldi, per Harper. His versatility and ability to match up against hard throwing left-handed pitching would have been useful for the club. The Marlins have him under club control for the 2016 season, but the Yankees are already paying $3MM of his $11MM contract. Personally, I see a swap for Prado as a worthy alternative to free agent Ben Zobrist.
- After a miserable second half, the Yankees may consider trading Brett Gardner, suggests Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News. Gardner has a similar skill set to leadoff hitter Jacoby Ellsbury, but both players disappeared in the second half of the season. If Gardner were to be traded, it could open the door for a power bat like Justin Upton or Yoenis Cespedes. One scout opined that an early season wrist injury and late season shoulder soreness could have affected Gardner’s play. He’s owed $36MM through 2018 with a $12.5MM club option for 2019 ($2MM buyout). He’ll also be paid a $1MM assignment bonus if traded.
Central Notes: Pirates, Boyer, Tigers, Chapman, Reds
The Pirates face a significant amount of questions now that their offseason has arrived, writes Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Decisions surrounding Neil Walker and Pedro Alvarez top the list, as the team must decide if it can afford to pay Walker his arbitration raise (projected at $10.7MM by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz) and if Alvarez is worth tendering a contract (projected salary: $8.1MM). As Brink notes, Josh Harrison could slide over to second base, with Jung Ho Kang handling third base full-time if healthy enough for Opening Day. Beyond that, the rotation presents a puzzle of sorts as well. Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano are a strong 1-2 combination, but Charlie Morton has dealt with injuries, and the Bucs have received little consistency from Jeff Locke and Vance Worley. Brink feels the team is likely to pursue a starting pitcher, though I’ll opine that adding two — one for stability and one as an increasingly typical Pittsburgh reclamation project — is a sensible route to take. (Doug Fister and Mat Latos stand out as talented arms in need of reestablishing their stock.)
Here are a few more notes from the game’s Central divisions as we all gear up for today’s glut of postseason baseball…
- Right-hander Blaine Boyer has expressed interest in re-signing with the Twins, writes MLB.com’s Rhett Bollinger in his look at the Twins’ upcoming offseason. Signed to a minor league pact last winter, Boyer made the club after a solid Spring Training and held a setup role all season despite possessing one of the lowest strikeout rates (4.6 K/9) of any reliever that pitched a full season. Boyer survived in part due to strong control (2.6 BB/9) and an above-average ground-ball rate (47.6 percent), but ERA estimators like FIP (4.00), xFIP (4.36) and SIERA (4.41) all feel that the stellar 2.49 mark he posted in 65 innings this season is due for a good bit of regression. Whether or not Boyer returns, Bollinger adds that the Twins are expected to look for bullpen upgrades via both trades and free agency.
- Tigers GM Al Avila was emphatic yesterday in telling the media that he did not speak to a single outside managerial candidate before deciding to retain Brad Ausmus, writes MLive.com’s James Schmehl. Reports had indicated that former division rival Ron Gardenhire was a candidate to step in for Ausmus following the season, but Avila, whom Schmehl says was given sole authority to make the decision on Ausmus steadfastly denied that there was any truth to said rumors.
- The likelihood of trading Aroldis Chapman this offseason only further muddies a Reds bullpen that desperately needs fixing, writes John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Fay, however, cautions the pursuit of free agents — with the exception of a relatively inexpensive arm to replace Chapman, similar to the Braves’ signing of Jason Grilli last winter — instead opining that the team is best suited to use its young arms to fill in the gaps. J.J. Hoover will return, he notes, and Pedro Villarreal and Jumbo Diaz are likely to be in the mix as well. Fay feels it’d be best to move on from Burke Badenhop, suggesting that Michael Lorenzen, Brandon Finnegan and Keyvius Sampson all work in relief initially next year, despite the fact that some feel Lorenzen and Finnegan still have starter upside.
AL Notes: Tigers, Rotation, Rondon, Gwynn, Bundy, Yanks
Tigers GM Al Avila addressed the press today, and Chris Iott of MLive.com has the story (or, if you prefer, the video). We already touched upon his comments regarding the possibility of a J.D. Martinez extension. He also noted the importance of bolstering the pitching staff, saying that the “hope is to find two starting pitchers” — one toward the top of the staff and another back-end arm. The club will also consider newly-acquired youngsters Daniel Norris, Matt Boyd, and Michael Fulmer for starting jobs, along with the struggling Shane Greene — who could instead move to relief duty. Speaking of the pen, Avila noted that adding a lockdown closer would be “a tough task” given the paucity of 9th-inning arms on the market. He also noted that pitching was a greater priority than adding in the outfield, where the team feels good about youngster Tyler Collins. Though Avila didn’t reveal details, he said the cash would be there to make the additions that the team needs: “We’ll have a highly competitive payroll, as we have in the past.”
Here’s more from Detroit and the rest of the American League:
- Tigers reliever Bruce Rondon took the closer job briefly but was ultimately sent home early for an apparent lack of effort. Avila says that the fireballer will need to prove that he is committed and capable, with the GM saying he’s “keeping my fingers crossed that the lesson was learned and he comes back ready to go.” One player who won’t be coming back is veteran infielder Josh Wilson, who has been told he’ll not be re-signed. And Avila said that long-time backstop Alex Avila — who is, of course, his son — is also expected to end up with a new organization.
- Changes in the Mariners‘ front office continued on Thursday, as Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune reported that director of player development Chris Gwynn has stepped down from his post (Twitter link). The Mariners have since confirmed Gwynn’s resignation, and Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times tweets that his expectation for the role to be filled by Angels assistant GM Scott Servais — a lieutenant of new Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto when the two worked together in Anaheim.
- Orioles right-hander Dylan Bundy threw off a mound on Wednesday for the first time since shoulder troubles caused him to be shut down for the season in May, writes the Baltimore Sun’s Eduardo A. Encina. Bundy, formerly rated as the No. 2 overall prospect in the game by both Baseball America and MLB.com, threw 20 pitches in the side session. Director of player development Brian Graham said that Bundy has no physical issues and showed good velocity. The team will decide if he’s to throw in winter ball or possibly the Arizona Fall League, but as Encina notes, getting him some work will be important. Bundy is out of minor league options and will have to stick on the Opening Day roster to avoid waivers next season, so getting him back into game shape carries extra importance for Baltimore.
- The Yankees have quite a bit of work to do heading into the offseason, writes MLB.com’s Barry M. Bloom. Unfortunately, the team doesn’t have much in the way of financial “wiggle room” to pursue the likes of David Price, Zack Greinke or Justin Upton, despite the fact that each player would fill a need for the club, Bloom opines. Perhaps chief among the Yankees’ needs will be to determine if age, injuries or simply general wear and tear contributed to the decline of Jacoby Ellsbury, Alex Rodriguez, Brett Gardner, Brian McCann, Chase Headley and Carlos Beltran down the stretch, he adds.
Tigers, J.D. Martinez Have Mutual Interest In Extension
Tigers GM Al Avila said today that the organization has interest in pursuing an extension with outfielder J.D. Martinez, as Chris Iott of MLive.com reports. He declined to discuss whether and to what extent the sides had already discussed that possibility.
“I don’t really want to get into our conversations with the players or their agents at this point,” said the newly-minted Detroit GM. “Usually we don’t make those comments. I can tell you we would have interest in something like that.”
Martinez, 28, is entering his second season of arbitration eligibility after earning $3MM last year. He’ll be looking for a big increase on that payout after a stellar campaign. MLBTR’s arbitration projections, via Matt Swartz, expect Martinez to receive nearly a $5MM raise this winter.
From his perspective, Martinez tells Iott, he has interest in a longer-term arrangement. But he said he’d let his representatives at RMG Baseball handle any contractual matters. “I would love to play in Detroit the rest of my career,” said Martinez. “But I leave the business part to my agent.”
That increasing earning power certainly has Martinez set up for a significant new contract. There aren’t many recent comps from power-hitting corner outfielders, but Adam Jones (six years, $85.5MM) and Alex Gordon (four years, $50MM) previously signed fairly large extensions when they were in the 4+ service class.
With 61 total home runs and a composite .304/.350/.543 batting line over the last two seasons, Martinez has out-produced all of this winter’s top free agents since he began his breakout. If he keeps that up, he’ll be in line for a massive free agent payday, and any extension would need to reflect that. All said, it seems that the initial interest is there to make a deal plausible, but both sides have plenty of ground to cover if something is to get done.
Tigers Notes: Closers, Rondon, Simon
Manager Brad Ausmus says he thinks GM Al Avila will try to acquire a closer this winter, MLive.com’s Chris Iott writes. “I would think we would,” says Ausmus. “That would definitely be high on the priority list. It’s a lot easier to say it’s high on the priority list. It’s a lot harder to do.” The Tigers traded Joakim Soria to the Pirates earlier this season and have tried a variety of other pitchers at closer, without much success. Their bullpen has been a significant problem all season, posting a 4.41 ERA that ranks fourth-worst in the big leagues. Here’s more out of Detroit.
- Included on that list of unsuccessful Tigers closers is Bruce Rondon, who produced a 5.81 ERA, 10.5 K/9 and 5.5 BB/9 before being sent home two weeks ago due to his “effort level.” Rondon won’t be guaranteed a spot in the Tigers’ 2016 bullpen. Iott notes (via Twitter) that the Tigers didn’t use an option on Rondon this season, so he has two remaining. Reserve catcher Bryan Holaday is, however, out of options.
- Tigers starter Alfredo Simon says he has struggled with a knee injury for most of the year, MLB.com’s Jason Beck tweets. He will have a platelet rich plasma injection today. Via Iott (on Twitter), Simon is interested in staying with the Tigers for 2016. Simon is headed toward free agency after a season in which he’s produced a 5.05 ERA, 5.6 K/9 and 3.3 BB/9 in 187 innings in Detroit. He might have gotten a significant free agent deal had he been eligible last winter, when he was coming off a strong season with the Reds, but at 34 and after a mediocre season, that now seems unlikely.
Heyman’s Latest: Nats, Managers/GMs, Kennedy, Martinez, Beltre, Desmond
While Matt Williams is all but certain to be let go following the season, writes Jon Heyman of CBS Sports in his latest Inside Baseball column, a source close to the situation tells him that Nationals GM/president of baseball ops Mike Rizzo “isn’t going anywhere.” The ill-fated acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon and Rizzo’s backing of Williams has led to some speculation about his job, but Heyman indicates that Washington’s top decision-maker is safe. Heyman focuses on the Nats in a lengthy intro to his column, also notably reporting that the “ship has sailed” on the Cubs‘ interest in Papelbon, making them an unlikely destination in a trade this winter. The Nats will try to unload Papelbon, though finding a trade partner in the wake of recent drama surrounding him will prove exceptionally difficult. Heyman also notes that Tyler Clippard and Gerardo Parra were Rizzo’s top two deadline priorities, but he didn’t have authorization to increase payroll, and thus turned to Papelbon, as the Phillies were willing to include money in the deal.
Some highlights from the rest of the lengthy but informative column…
- In running down current GM vacancies as well as potential managerial openings, Heyman notes a number of likelihoods. Billy Eppler is expected to be offered the Angels‘ GM position, he hears, but the Halos may go with the increasingly popular two-executive format, meaning Josh Byrnes could be hired as president to work above Eppler. Torey Lovullo’s name could surface as a candidate for the Padres, especially given CEO Mike Dee’s ties to Boston. Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto could have a tough time with Lloyd McClendon, whom one Mariners person described as even more old-school than Mike Scioscia, and Heyman hears that former Rangers bench coach/Angels front office assistant Tim Bogar could get a look.
- The Indians will be looking for third basemen this winter and could seek upgrades in center field and right field as well.
- Rockies GM Jeff Bridich is said to be a believer in young right-hander Eddie Butler, a former Top 100 prospect that has struggled mightily in the Majors. Others in the organization aren’t as sold on him.
- The Tigers will be looking for a closer and at least one setup man this winter, and they could show interest in the Reds‘ Aroldis Chapman on the trade market (though he strikes me as a questionable fit with just one year until free agency). Detroit will also be seeking rotation upgrades on the free agent market, and a few players of early interest are Scott Kazmir, Ian Kennedy and Jeff Samardzija. Trades for rotation help are also possible, though Detroit wants to hold onto Daniel Norris and Michael Fulmer.
- Cuban outfield prospect Eddy Julio Martinez recently worked out for the Royals and had an impressive showing. The Dodgers and Giants remain interested as well, he adds. It’s worth also pointing out that each of those three clubs has already spent heavily enough on international free agents to incur maximum penalties, so the only further repercussion they’d face is further luxury taxation.
- The Brewers will target rotation help this offseason, and Heyman calls Kennedy a “possibility.” To me, that’d seem like more of the same from recent winters, when Milwaukee added Matt Garza and Kyle Lohse — a pair of mid-range upgrades. Unlike those winters, however, they’re not close enough to contention this time around for me to see the logic in offering Kennedy a four-year deal, especially since he’ll probably end up with a qualifying offer attached to his name. On another Brewers’ note, Heyman writes that the team should listen on Jean Segura, given Orlando Arcia‘s emergence in the minors, though I’m not sure Segura is teeming with trade value following another poor season.
- Samardzija could be a target for the Yankees, who employ former Cubs GM Jim Hendry in their front office. Hendry was Chicago’s general manager when the team initially signed Samardzija and remains a believer in the right-hander.
- The D-Backs, Nationals, Tigers, Cubs, Rangers, Yankees and maybe the Braves will all show interest if the Padres decide to move Craig Kimbrel this winter.
- Adrian Beltre will need to undergo surgery to repair a severe thumb sprain through which he’s been playing for quite some time following the Rangers‘ season.
- There’s “no chance” that Ian Desmond would accept a one-year qualifying offer, writes Heyman, who presumes that the Nationals will make the offer. Though Desmond’s struggled this year, it shouldn’t be expected that any prime-aged player who isn’t coming off a major injury would accept the offer, in my view. Detractors will state that said player can’t find a similar average annual value on a multi-year deal, and while that may be true, locking in a more sizable payday once free agency is an option tends to be a greater priority. Heyman lists the Mariners, White Sox and Mets as speculative possibilities to enter the shortstop market. Desmond won’t top $100MM, like many once expected, but even with a QO in tow, he’ll be able to handily top $16MM, even at a lower AAV. And, if the offers don’t materialize, he can always sign a one-year deal at or near that rate later in the offseason.
Central Notes: Stearns, Counsell, Indians, Machado
Freshly appointed Brewers general manager David Stearns held court with the media at Petco Park today, and Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel runs down a number of the topics addressed by Stearns. Perhaps most notably, Stearns characterized his first impressions of manager Craig Counsell as positive. Building a relationship with Counsell is one of the first things on Stearns’ to-do list as GM. “It’s an enormous relationship, and it needs to be a relationship that has mutual respect and mutual trust,” said Stearns of the manager-GM dynamic. “So far, we’ve gotten along very well. … Throughout the entire industry, Craig has a very positive reputation. It was also clear that he was held in high regard within the organization and up through ownership.”
A bit more from Stearns and the game’s Central divisions…
- Also high on Stearns’ agenda is deciding on an assistant GM and an organizational structure, as MLB.com’s Adam McCalvy tweets. Via Haudricourt, Stearns spoke about the characteristics he’d seek in an AGM. “Ultimately, you’re going to want one who complements your skill set and helps you run the front office from a variety of different aspects,” he explained. Stearns said he’s spoken to a number of baseball ops executives that pre-date him, presumably including Ash, but has yet to come to any firm personnel decisions. “I’ve had conversations with a number of them and I think a number of them will stay,” he added.
- The Indians will have a number of roster decisions to make following the season, writes Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer. Gavin Floyd, Ryan Raburn, Mike Aviles and Ryan Webb can all become free agents, and each has expressed an interest in remaining with Cleveland. Raburn could be retained via his $3.5MM club option, as the team will decide between that sum and a $1MM buyout. Hoynes also notes that Cleveland has as many as six, if not seven arbitration eligible players (depending on Jeff Manship‘s Super Two eligibility). Closer Cody Allen, in particular, could be in line for a multi-year deal, per Hoynes, though that comment seemed to be speculative.
- Though adding some additional positions to his repertoire would help Dixon Machado‘s chances of making the Tigers‘ roster in 2015, the team has no plans to play him anywhere but shortstop, manager Brad Ausmus told MLive.com’s James Schmehl. The Tigers view Machado as a pure shortstop, though that complicates his path to playing time in the Majors due to the presence of Jose Iglesias. Nonetheless, Ausmus was firm in his belief: “Just a shortstop, at this point. I don’t know that I’d put Machado in the (Andrew) Romine category. Although he played third base a couple of games in Toledo, I wouldn’t throw him into a utility role.” Machado, the Tigers’ No. 14 prospect, per MLB.com, hit .286/.375/.404 across two levels in 2014 but has struggled in both Triple-A and the Majors this year. Scouting reports on the 23-year-old rave about his glove but wonder if he’ll hit enough to be a regular in the Majors.
Quick Hits: Redesign, Wainwright, Ausmus, Janish
As MLB Trade Rumors nears its ten-year anniversary, I’ve decided to update the design for desktop and tablet users. The changes are mostly aesthetic, but if you’re willing to take five minutes and send us feedback on the new look, I’d love to hear it. Just drop me a line at mlbtrdata@gmail.com and I’ll send you a link where you can preview our new design. I hope to roll it out within the next few weeks. – Tim Dierkes
With that said, here’s some news from around the league…
- Adam Wainwright‘s return to the Cardinals is now pending only a doctor’s approval, writes MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch. Wainwright threw 27 pitches in a simulated game and faced six hitters, allowing a single but then retiring four hitters on strikeouts and a fifth via fly-out. Wainwright said that he felt like himself on the mound and called the session “incredibly uplifting.” Langosch notes that he also fielded grounders and tested his quickness on covering first base without issue. If all goes well, he could be activated not only for the postseason, but for the Cardinals’ upcoming regular-season series against the Pirates.
- Via MLive.com’s Chris Iott, Tigers manager Brad Ausmus briefly spoke about the team’s decision to bring him back and his expectations for the 2016 season (video link). Ausmus said that after a conversation with GM Al Avila, he knew that reports suggesting he’d be fired didn’t come from him or owner Mike Ilitch. Darren Wolfson of 1500 ESPN tweets that he spoke to someone close to Ron Gardenhire — a rumored candidate to replace Ausmus — and was told, “Just when you think you got it figured out, it always surprises you.”
- The latest Q&A conducted by Fangraphs’ David Laurila is an excellent conversation with Orioles infielder Paul Janish — a longtime defensive wizard who has struggled to maintain consistent big league playing time due to his offensive deficiencies. Janish discusses with Laurila the rigors of playing in the minor leagues, the difficulty that being labeled presents (both mentally and in terms of getting future opportunities) and acceptance of his limitations. Janish believes that he can contribute to a big league club for at least another three to four years but admits that finding the right spot is more crucial for a player like him than it is others. I enjoyed Janish’s self-assessment and the insight into the experiences of less established stars that are perennially fighting for roster spots and would encourage all to check out the piece.
Tigers Notes: Davis, Avila, Ausmus
It was on this day in 1999 that the Tigers played their final game at Tiger Stadium, closing out the old ballpark with an 8-2 win over the Royals. In addition to 88 years of Tigers baseball, the stadium also notably hosted Detroit Lions football, a Joe Louis heavyweight title fight, concerts and numerous other events over the years. On a personal note, my dad once attended a game at Tiger Stadium and mostly enjoyed the experience…though his seat was directly behind a support pole that blocked his view of home plate. Here’s the latest from the Motor City:
- Rajai Davis tells Mlive.com’s Chris Iott that he “absolutely” wants to return to the Tigers in 2016. Iott feels the veteran outfielder is a good fit as a right-handed hitting outfield option, especially since Anthony Gose, Tyler Collins and Steven Moya are all lefty bats; Detroit could indeed go with a Davis/Gose platoon in center field again.
- Alex Avila also wants to remain with the Tigers, though he told reporters (including ESPN’s Katie Strang) that “if there was a team out there that would give me the opportunity to play more, I’d have to look at that for sure.” Avila himself acknowledged that James McCann will be Detroit’s starting catcher in 2016. It’s hard to see Avila landing anything more than a backup job elsewhere given his injury history, so if he does accept that role, it makes sense that he would first look to remain in a familiar situation with his long-time team.
- Brad Ausmus will be returning as the Tigers manager, though Drew Sharp of the Detroit Free Press feels the team should extend Ausmus’ contract if it’s really set on making a commitment to him. 2016 is Ausmus’ last guaranteed year and the Tigers have a club option on his services for 2017. Sharp feels that “bringing Ausmus back without an extension only further reaffirms the larger indecisiveness regarding the direction of this franchise” and making Ausmus a veritable lame duck won’t help anyone. I’m not sure I agree with Sharp here; a one-year/one-option situation isn’t too unusual for a manager, and if the Tigers indeed rebound next year, surely Ausmus will then get an extension.
- In his latest Insider-only column, ESPN’s Buster Olney raises the interesting point that given some of the Tigers’ roster issues, “being fired might’ve been the best thing for Brad Ausmus’ career as a manager” since he is highly thought-of around baseball and would’ve easily found another job (perhaps in a better situation). Another season managing a struggling team, however, could lower Ausmus’ stock.
Avila On Retaining Manager Brad Ausmus
We learned earlier today that the Tigers would retain manager Brad Ausmus. GM Al Avila elaborated on his reasons for sticking with the embattled manager. Chris Iott of MLive.com and Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press have the details.
- Fenech explores the timeline of the decision to keep Ausmus. It was reported on September 10 that Ausmus would be fired at the end of the season. Owner Mike Ilitch reportedly wanted to let him go earlier in the year, but former GM Dave Dombrowski “fought off ownership.” When Avila took over for Dombrowski, he began evaluating Ausmus and other personnel. Per Avila, “Whenever you make a decision to change a manager, do it right then and there and don’t wait.”
- Avila praised Ausmus’ work with young personnel, particularly Nick Castellanos, James McCann, and Anthony Gose. Avila noted that Ausmus “had to personally get involved in the teaching of these young players. And he has.” He also has a good rapport with the veterans. Miguel Cabrera, Ian Kinsler, and others have publicly lobbied in favor of Ausmus.
- Despite falling out of contention, the Tigers continue to battle for wins. Avila considers this another point in Ausmus’ favor. The club is 12-11 in September. In particular, Avila is pleased with his manager’s game preparation – even when the outcome is no longer relevant.