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Big Hype Prospects: Grissom, Walker, Holliday, Lee, Painter

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This week on Big Hype Prospects, we check in with a couple recently-promoted Major Leaguers, peek at a couple more on the cusp, and introduce ourselves to some hot-hitting 2022 draftees.

Five Big Hype Prospects

Vaughn Grissom, 21, 2B/SS, ATL (MLB)
35 PA, 2 HR, 2 SB, .406/.457/.656

Grissom was just playing his way into consensus Top 100 status when the Braves tabbed him for a Major League promotion instead. He had just 98 plate appearances in Double-A after spending much of the season in High-A (344 PA, 11 HR, 20 SB, .312/.404/.487). His numbers have actually improved slightly at each stop. As many have noted (unpleasant noise warning), he’s the second player the Braves have skipped straight past Triple-A. Of course, 35 plate appearances is hardly the basis for Major League success – the true challenge is proving the ability to counter-adjust once the league figures him out. We might not get to that point since Ozzie Albies is approaching a rehab assignment. Grissom will probably hold down the fort until then.

His arrival also has long-term implications. He mostly played shortstop in the minors. So too did Albies back in the day. The club could be using this opportunity to further their postseason bid by using a more dynamic player than Ehire Adrianza while at the same time assessing if a shortstop signing is an urgent need this winter. If they like what they see from Grissom, the Braves might opt to target a lesser free agent like Jose Iglesias or even skip the market altogether.

Jordan Walker, 20, 3B, STL (AA)
430 PA, 15 HR, 17 SB, .310/.393/.522

On Thursday, Walker had his third double-dinger game since July 29. He appears to have accomplished all that he can in Double-A by both improving upon his walk and strikeout rates while continuing to punish the baseball. One of the big impending storylines of free agency is Nolan Arenado’s player option decision. Will he stay or hit the open market? Judging by the ascendancy of Walker, St. Louis might be alright with letting Arenado walk. After all, they can always use Nolan Gorman at third base if Walker isn’t ready in early 2023.

There are still some issues with Walker’s game hidden underneath the beautiful surface level stats. For one, he has a 16.1 percent swinging strike rate. That’s roughly on par with Adolis Garcia, Ryan Mountcastle, Jorge Mateo, and Patrick Wisdom – not exactly the most contact-oriented collection of batters. Moreover, Walker has these whiff issues while running a 45 percent ground ball rate. One of the “tricks” for striking out less is to flatten a swing plane. That adds grounders at the expense of fly balls. Walker has nothing left to give on that front. For what it’s worth, some of the next guys up on the swinging strike rate list are Julio Rodriguez, Teoscar Hernandez, Rafael Devers, and Byron Buxton. Stars can sometimes have whiff problems without dreadful strikeout rates.

Jackson Holliday, 18, SS, BAL (CPX)
6-for-15, 1 HR, 1 SB, 5 BB, 1 K

The number one overall pick of the 2022 draft, Holliday arrived with a bang in the complex league this week. He hit his first professional home run on Friday and has a five-to-one walk-to-strikeout ratio. MLB Pipeline already rates him the 14th-best prospect in the league – an aggressive ranking compared with the recent updates from Baseball America (39) and Keith Law (42). Scouting notes on Holliday remain sparse, mostly focusing on his excellent pre-draft conditioning as well as a need to see him against more advanced competition. With the way he’s playing in his first week, a promotion could come soon.

Brooks Lee, 21, SS, MIN (A+)
30 PA, 1 HR, .333/.400/.444

Another recent first-round draftee, Lee made short work of the complex league. The Twins liked his hit tool so much they assigned him straight to High-A. There, he’s more than held his own albeit with more swing-and-miss than expected. Given the aggressive assignment – nearly every player in High-A has years rather than a few scant weeks of professional experience – Lee’s early success is encouraging. Law believes Lee “is the ne plus ultra” of fast-moving college draftees, meaning we could see him broach the Majors as early as next season. Law also considers a move to third base likely while other sources think Lee can stick at shortstop so long as he’s well-positioned.

The ”fast-mover” middle infield profile typically consists of a near-elite hit tool and nonexistent power. Think Nick Madrigal. Lee’s power is more aptly described as nascent. He’s expect to grow into 10 to 20 home runs annually to go with a disciplined, high-average approach.

Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (A+)
(A+) 36.2 IP, 12.03 K/9, 1.72 BB/9, 0.98 ERA

Last week, we covered Ricky Tiedemann in this spot. Many of the same superlatives apply to Painter. He’s the same age as Tiedemann and rapidly ascending towards Top 10 prospect status. He’s one of the best pitchers left in the minors. At present, Painter has a fastball-slider combo that evokes Spencer Strider. Painter lives upstairs with 98-mph heat then drops sharp sliders into the strike zone. Scouting reports indicate his ability to locate the slider outside of the zone is still a work in progress as are the development of a curve and changeup. Given Strider’s success with the same toolkit, Painter might just find his way to the Majors next season as a two-pitch 20-year-old.

Five More

Josh Jung, TEX (24): Last week, we noted Jung’s successful return to Triple-A. Since then, he’s gone 10-for-20 with four home runs, three doubles, two walks, and a strikeout. A promotion should come any day now.

Sal Frelick, MIL (22): Speaking of hot bats, Frelick is hitting .440/.525/.540 through his first 60 Triple-A plate appearances with more walks than strikeouts. The Brewers have fallen three games behind the Cardinals in the NL Central and two games back of the Phillies in the Wild Card race. Milwaukee could consider taking a page from the Braves by promoting Frelick before he’s ticked all the usual developmental boxes. Center field and leadoff hitter are their biggest areas of need. Frelick profiles as Steven Kwan-like.

Brayan Bello, BOS (23): Bello is slated to make a rehab start at Triple-A on Friday. If all goes well, he could return to the Majors in short order. While it’s trendy to count the Red Sox out of the playoff hunt, they’re only five games behind the Rays and Jays. They’re six back of the Mariners. A recovery is certainly possible. Bello, with his domineering stuff and over-60 percent ground ball rate, could be an important piece if Boston is to salvage their season.

Kerry Carpenter, DET (24): A late-bloomer who only started generating hype this season, Carpenter thrashed the upper-minors for 30 home runs in 400 plate appearances. He’s since tacked on two dingers in 25 Major League plate appearances. As expected, he’s shown signs of below average plate discipline and a modest swinging-strike issue in his small sample of big league experience. Overall, his debut has been a rousing success to date so the Tigers have every reason to continue trotting him out on a daily basis.

Marcelo Mayer, BOS, (19): In recent years, we’ve been spoiled with precocious play from young, top prospects. Of all the Top 10 prospect candidates, we’ve had the least to say about Mayer in this column. The long and short of it is he’s having a typical season for a prospect of his age and repute. He hasn’t done anything jaw-dropping while at the same time assuring onlookers of his eventual role as a Major League shortstop of some quality. Personally (remember, I’m not a scout), I see similarities to J.P. Crawford with eventual power outcomes being a tad more accessible/plausible. Since a recent promotion to High-A, he’s hitting .243/.333/.405 in 42 plate appearances.

Tigers Reinstate Eduardo Rodriguez, Designate Wily Peralta

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The Tigers have reinstated left-hander Eduardo Rodriguez from the restricted list, tweets Daniel Álvarez-Montes of El Extra Base. Right-hander Wily Peralta was designated for assignment in a corresponding move.

Rodriguez, 29, was signed in the offseason to a five-year, $77MM contract, with the Tigers hoping he could be a veteran anchor of their young rotation. Detroit had debuted many promising young starters in previous seasons, including Casey Mize, Matt Manning, Tarik Skubal and others. It was hoped that those youngers, combined with the addition of Rodriguez, could give the club a strong rotation and help them emerge from their years-long rebuild.

Unfortunately, Murphy’s law has been applied to the Tigers in the strictest possible terms this season, with their rotation being heavily targeted. Mize made just two starts before landing on the injured list, eventually undergoing Tommy John surgery, keeping him out of action for this year and likely most of next year as well. Manning has since returned but missed almost four months due to shoulder issues, having made just five starts so far this year. Skubal stayed healthy for a while, making 21 starts, but recently underwent a flexor tendon surgery that will finish his 2022 and likely keep him out of action for part of 2023 as well.

As for Rodriguez, he landed on the injured list in May due to a ribcage sprain. He started a rehab assignment in early June but was then transferred to the restricted list due to a personal matter which was later reported to be a marital issue. He returned to begin another rehab assignment in early August, working back up to a starter’s workload before today’s return. In the end, Rodriguez spent just over two months on the restricted list, during which time he didn’t take up a spot on the 40-man roster or earn any salary. Prior to that extended absence, he made eight starts for Detroit, registering a 4.38 ERA in 39 innings.

With the club’s rotation being so snakebit all year, they have had to churn through various backup plans over the course of the season. One of those was Peralta, 33, who was signed to a minor league deal in the offseason. He was selected to the roster in mid-April and appeared in 28 games. In 38 1/3 innings on the year, he has a 2.58 ERA, not missing bats entirely but at least missing the most important part. His 19% strikeout rate is below league average but he’s in the 89th percentile in terms of barrel percentage. Perhaps due to keeping hitters off-balance, his 5.6% HR/FB rate is less than half his career rate, helping to keep his ERA down.

Despite those solid results, Peralta will head to the waiver wire in the coming days, as the trade deadline is now behind us. Manger A.J. Hinch spoke to reporters about today’s moves, including Chris McCosky of the Detroit News, explaining that they want to use the remainder of the season to evaluate younger pitchers. “We’re giving Wily Peralta a chance to pitch somewhere else while we look at some guys who are more likely to be here,” Hinch said.

Hinch also explained that Daniel Norris and Garrett Hill will be moved to the bullpen, as the club has multiple off-days coming up and can survive with a four-man rotation for a few weeks. In Hill’s case, the move is about limiting his innings down the stretch in order to avoid overworking him. The club’s rotation for the time being will consist of Rodriguez, Manning, Tyler Alexander and Drew Hutchison.

Injury Notes: Mahle, Meadows, Walker, Johnson

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The Twins are surely breathing a sigh of relief, announcing to reporters Thursday that an MRI revealed right-hander Tyler Mahle’s shoulder to be structurally sound. Mahle, acquired from the Reds in exchange for three prospects earlier this month, exited yesterday’s start after just 2 1/3 innings due to shoulder fatigue. That was of particular concern, given that he also missed time in July with what was termed by the Reds as a “minor'” shoulder strain. For the time being, there are no plans to place Mahle on the 15-day injured list, though it’s not yet clear whether his next start will be pushed back at all.

Mahle’s Wednesday start saw his fastball clocking in around four miles per hour shy of his typical 93.4 mph average, so there’s still some obvious concern, but the absence of a tear or any structural issues is about the best news for which the Twins could have hoped. In 14 1/3 innings as a Twin, Mahle has pitched to a 2.51 ERA with a 23.1% strikeout rate and a 7.7% walk rate. Mahle, Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Chris Archer and Dylan Bundy are in line to make the majority of the Twins’ starts down the stretch, though they’re expecting right-hander Bailey Ober back in September and just this week promoted prospect Simeon Woods Richardson from Double-A to Triple-A.

Some more injury scenarios of note from around the league…

  • As if things couldn’t get any worse for the Tigers, manager A.J. Hinch announced this week that outfielder Austin Meadows has once again been pulled from a rehab assignment (link via Chris McCosky of the Detroit News). Meadows first hit the injured list back in mid-May due to vertigo-like symptoms and returned a bit less than a month later. That return lasted only eight games, however, before he was placed on the Covid-related injured list. Just as Meadows was getting ready to head out on a rehab assignment, he was transferred to the 10-day injured list owing to the bizarre diagnosis of an Achilles strain in both legs. This now marks the second time that Meadows has had a rehab assignment for this injury halted. Hinch’s only update was that Meadows was headed to Detroit for reevaluation and that the Tigers still have hope he can return in 2022. It’s been a nightmare of a season for Meadows, who has been limited to just 147 plate appearances and seen his power disappear: .250/.347/.328.
  • Mets righty Taijuan Walker left his most recent start due to back spasms, with an MRI revealing a slight disc bulge in his lower back, reports Anthony DiComo of MLB.com. However, it’s possible he could make his next scheduled start on Sunday. Walker tells DiComo that he is “shocked” to be feeling so good so soon after experiencing “the worst pain I ever felt.” Although he’s feeling better, he still won’t take the mound on Sunday unless he’s feeling 100 percent, per DiComo. If he is indeed recovered, it would be a tremendous gift for the Mets, given the current pressures on their rotation. With Carlos Carrasco recently landing on the IL and the Mets having a doubleheader on Saturday, having to make it through Sunday without Walker would certainly be a challenge. How his back responds over the next few days will determine if the club can avoid that tricky scenario.
  • Padres reliever Pierce Johnson is heading out on a rehab assignment, tweets Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune. Johnson had an excellent season for San Diego a year ago, throwing 58 2/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA and 31.6% strikeout rate. The Friars held a $3MM club option over Johnson’s services for this year, which they exercised based on that strong showing last season. Unfortunately, Johnson landed on the IL in April due to elbow tendinitis. He’s yet to return, meaning he’s only been able to get into six games this year. After a layoff of about four months, it seems he’s healthy enough to get back into game shape. Once he’s ready to return to the big league club, he should give the bullpen a boost for the final few weeks of the season.

Tarik Skubal Undergoes Flexor Tendon Surgery

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Tigers left-hander Tarik Skubal underwent surgery to repair the flexor tendon in his left forearm this week, manager A.J. Hinch announced to reporters (Twitter link via Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press). Skubal was already known to be out for the remainder of the 2022 season after being shifted to the 60-day injured list last week, but a surgery of this nature is significant and calls into question his readiness for the 2023 campaign. The Tigers have not provided a timetable for his recovery.

It’s a rather alarming escalation of events regarding Skubal, who just three weeks ago was at least a long-shot trade candidate in the midst of a breakout season. He exited an Aug. 1 start against the Twins after five excellent innings — three hits, no runs, no walks, four strikeouts — due to what the team termed as arm fatigue. At the time of his removal, Skubal downplayed the injury and voiced confidence that he could make his next start. As such, the subsequent trip to the 15-day injured list was viewed as something of a precautionary measure at the time.

Concern began to mount, however, when the Tigers abruptly shifted him to the 60-day injured list on Aug. 12. Hinch told reporters that day that Skubal was meeting with renowned surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache to get an additional opinion on his elbow and forearm. The Tigers definitively shut him down for the season at that point.

Flexor tendon surgery doesn’t necessarily come with as lengthy of a recovery period as the typical 12 to 14 months for Tommy John surgery, but it’s hardly a short-term outlook in most cases. Every procedure and recovery process is different, but it’s worth noting that a pair of high-profile lefties — Danny Duffy and Skubal’s former teammate, Matthew Boyd — underwent similar procedures last year and have not yet made it back to the mound. Boyd (September surgery) and Duffy (October) were both targeting June returns but have since encountered setbacks that have impeded their progress.

Again, there are plenty of instances of pitchers returning from this injury more promptly, and the Tigers haven’t provided specifics on Skubal’s surgery. There’s no sense in attempting to speculate on a specific return date with incomplete information. That said, we’re about six months out from the start of 2023 Spring Training already, so simply looking to other flexor surgeries in recent years, it’s fair to wonder whether Skubal’s availability early in 2023 might be impacted.

It’s another blow to what’s been an astonishingly snakebitten Tigers pitching staff in 2022. For the past several years, the tantalizing trio of Skubal, Casey Mize and Matt Manning — all of them former top-100 prospects — was heralded as the foundation of Detroit’s pitching staff for years to come. Instead, that trio has been beset by injuries, two of which have now resulted in major surgeries. Skubal will face a months-long recovery from his flexor procedure. Mize underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this year. Manning hasn’t gone under the knife but has dealt with a notable shoulder injury this year and a forearm strain of his own back in 2020. At the very least, Manning is healthy at the moment; he came off the injured list earlier this month and has made three solid appearances — though those are just his third, fourth and fifth starts of the season.

Detroit’s struggles extend well beyond injuries to that promising group of arms, however. Top outfield prospect Riley Greene missed the first two-plus months of the season with a broken foot and has been overmatched by MLB pitching since returning (.228/.287/.330 in 244 plate appearances). Both Greene and first baseman Spencer Torkelson were ranked among the game’s top five overall prospects heading into the season, but Torkelson endured similar struggles (.197/.282/.295) before being optioned to Triple-A earlier in the summer.

The Tigers have also had notable injuries to expected contributors (Austin Meadows, Michael Pineda), seen established 2021 contributors regress (Jeimer Candelario, Akil Baddoo) and received nowhere near the help they expected from their top two free-agent signings. Javier Baez is hitting just .227/.269/.378 on the year, while lefty Eduardo Rodriguez has pitched just 39 innings due to injury and to time spent away from the team while dealing with a reported marital issue. Rodriguez is expected to return this weekend (Twitter link via Evan Woodbery of MLive.com), but the team’s season has clearly already gone off the rails.

Any of these woes, in isolation, would perhaps be manageable for a team to overcome. Taken in totality, however, there’s no reasonable way to expect a team to withstand that type of strain on the roster. The dam finally burst last week when the Tigers fired general manager Al Avila.

The Tigers will have a new general manager within the coming months, but it’s not yet clear just how said executive and how owner Chris Ilitch envision fixing the mess that has been the 2022 season. That much was true even before the Tigers learned that their top young starter required surgery to repair a flexor tendon. Skubal made 21 starts this season and pitched to a solid 3.52 ERA with an above-average 24.5% strikeout rate, a strong 6.7% walk rate and a quality 45.7% grounder rate.

Prior to his injury, Skubal’s development was one of the very few bright spots in an otherwise calamitous Tigers season, but he’ll now add to the daunting sense of uncertainty that permeates the roster. The Tigers control Skubal and Mize through the 2026 season. Manning is controllable through 2027. Torkelson and Greene can be controlled through at least 2028.

Tigers Acquire Ricardo Sanchez From Phillies

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The Tigers and Phillies announced a minor league trade, with left-hander Ricardo Sanchez heading to Detroit in exchange for cash considerations.  Because Sanchez has played the entire season on a minor league contract without spending any time on Philadelphia’s big league roster or big league injured list, he was eligible to be dealt after the August 2 trade deadline.

[Related: How to Acquire Players after the Trade Deadline]

Sanchez has been assigned to Triple-A, but given how injuries have ravaged the Tigers’ pitching staff to an almost absurd extent, it might not be long before Sanchez gets his second crack in the big leagues.  Sanchez made his MLB debut in 2020, throwing 5 1/3 innings over three games with the Cardinals.  The southpaw remained in the St. Louis organization until this past March, when he was released and then quickly pivoted to a new minors deal with Philadelphia.

Injuries kept Sanchez off the mound entirely in 2021, but he returned to post a 4.79 ERA over 92 innings with the Phillies’ Triple-A affiliate.  Never a big strikeout pitcher during his eight seasons in the pros, Sanchez is inducing grounders roughly half the time, but a .337 BABIP hasn’t helped Sanchez keep runs off the board.

Originally signed as an international free agent by the Angels in 2013, Sanchez will now head to his sixth different Major League organization.  Sanchez is only 25, so it’s perhaps inaccurate to say that the Tigers only view him as a shorter-term option, but Detroit is likely just looking for all of the depth it can find given the team’s lack of healthy arms.

AL Central Notes: Robert, Guardians, Contreras, Tigers, Hinch

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X-rays were negative on Luis Robert’s left wrist, as the White Sox outfielder has been deemed day-to-day with a sprain.  Robert suffered the injury on a stolen-base attempt in the bottom of the sixth inning in Friday’s game, and was replaced in center field for the top of the seventh.

Chicago’s next off-day doesn’t come until August 29, so there isn’t any room for Robert to get a break without leaving the White Sox undermanned on the roster.  As such, a 10-day injured list visit could be necessary if there’s any lingering soreness, and the Sox might prefer to lose Robert for a few games now in order to get him fully healthy for the rest of the postseason race.  Though he has already missed a couple of weeks (on the COVID-IL and on the regular IL due to blurred vision), Robert has still been a big contributor to the White Sox, hitting .301/.336/.454 with 12 homers in 354 plate appearances.

Other notes from around the AL Central…

  • The Guardians were among the teams who had interest in Willson Contreras at the trade deadline, according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers.  The Cubs didn’t end up moving Contreras anywhere, while the Guards had a quiet deadline overall — they ended up moving a catcher themselves, dealing Sandy Leon to the Twins in a minor trade.  Despite interest in both Contreras and the Athletics’ Sean Murphy, Cleveland stood pat at catching, leaving Austin Hedges and Luke Maile as the primary tandem behind the plate unless the Guardians look to call up top prospect Bo Naylor.
  • A.J. Hinch ended any speculation that he might seek a move to the Tigers’ front office, telling reporters (including The Athletic’s Cody Stavenhagen) earlier this week “I’m the manager.  I plan on being the manager.”  However, owner Chris Ilitch did state that Hinch would have some input on who might replace Al Avila as the club’s next general manager.  To this end, Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggests that former Diamondbacks and Padres GM Josh Byrnes could be a candidate for the Detroit job — Byrnes and Hinch worked together in Arizona’s front office, with Byrnes giving Hinch his first managerial job in the Diamondbacks’ dugout.  Byrnes has been working as the senior VP of baseball operations for the Dodgers since 2014.

Tarik Skubal Visiting Specialist With Elbow Issue; Expected To Miss Remainder Of Season

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4:32pm: Skubal is set to visit orthopedic surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache next week, reports Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). The 25-year-old is alarmingly dealing with some form of elbow injury, although Hinch declined to speculate as to whether surgery was a possibility until the results of next week’s testing became apparent. McCosky adds that Skubal will not return to the mound in 2022 in any event.

3:03pm: The Tigers announced Friday that they’ve transferred lefty Tarik Skubal from the 15-day injured list to the 60-day injured list. The move opens a spot on the roster for lefty Daniel Norris, whose contract has been formally selected from Triple-A Toledo (as previously reported). It also casts doubt on whether Skubal will return at all in the 2022 season. Since he was placed on the 15-day IL on Aug. 2, there’s still technically time for him to get back for the final week of games in early October — but today’s move makes that look fairly unlikely.

It’s a fairly surprising shift for Skubal, who was placed on the injured list due to general arm fatigue. Skubal was lifted from his final start of the season after five efficient innings and downplayed any severity, telling the Tigers beat that he anticipated making his next start. Instead, it’s now possible that he won’t pitch in a game until next season. The Tigers didn’t provide any further updates on Skubal’s health beyond the move to the 60-day IL, though manager AJ Hinch will presumably divulge some additional context prior to tonight’s game.

If Skubal’s season is indeed over, it was a strong breakout year for the former top prospect. The 25-year-old will fall shy of last year’s 149 2/3 innings, but in the 117 2/3 frames he managed during the 2022 campaign, Skubal worked to a 3.52 ERA with a 24.5% strikeout rate, a strong 6.7% walk rate and a solid 45.7% grounder rate. Most importantly, he maintained the generally sharp strikeout and walk rates he’d displayed in 2021 while dramatically scaling back his home-run rate (2.11 HR/9 in 2021; 0.69 HR/9 in 2022). If Skubal can continue to miss bats, limit walks, keep the ball on the ground and limit home runs in this capacity, there’s room for even greater improvement (as evidenced by his hearty 2.97 FIP).

Whether there’s another gear for Skubal or this is roughly his peak output, he’s solidified himself as at least a quality mid-rotation option for Hinch in the coming years. Though there was talk of the Tigers being willing to at least listen to offers on the lefty before the Aug. 2 trade deadline, the Tigers would’ve required an exorbitant haul to part with him given that he’s still under team control for another four seasons beyond the current campaign. Given the current uncertainty regarding his arm, it’s difficult to imagine those talks being revisited this winter, as the Tigers — who’ll be operating under a new general manager after firing Al Avila yesterday — would be selling low on the heels of a lengthy IL stay.

As for what the Tigers’ rotation will look like moving forward, it’s practically anyone’s guess. Skubal joins Casey Mize and Spencer Turnbull (Tommy John surgery in both cases) as key rotation pieces on the 60-day injured list. The Tigers are currently also without Michael Pineda, Beau Brieske and Rony Garcia (injured list) and lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (rehabbing following a lengthy stay on the restricted list while dealing with a reported marital issue). That’s left the Tigers with Norris, Matt Manning, Tyler Alexander, journeyman Drew Hutchison and rookie Garrett Hill as options for the time being. With little certainty among that quintet, there figures to be additional rotation tumult in the final weeks of the year.

Tigers To Select Daniel Norris

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Left-hander Daniel Norris is returning for a second big league stint with the Tigers, the team announced to reporters Thursday. Norris, who signed a minor league deal after being cut loose by the Cubs, will start tomorrow’s game for the Tigers. He’ll make at least two starts, tweets Evan Woodbery of MLive.com. The Tigers will need to make a corresponding 40-man roster move before tomorrow’s game.

Further opportunities beyond these two scheduled outings for Norris will be dependent on the lefty’s performance and the health of the other options on the roster. Chris McCosky of the Detroit News tweets that veteran Michael Pineda is headed out on a rehab assignment and could only need two starts himself, for instance, so there’s likely some correlation there.

Norris, 29, was one of three lefties the Tigers acquired in the 2015 trade that sent David Price to the Blue Jays. (Matthew Boyd and Jairo Labourt also went to Detroit in that swap.) He spent the 2015-21 seasons with the Tigers organization, working as both a starter and reliever while batting a lengthy run of health issues — most notably a frightening bout with thyroid cancer which he thankfully overcame.

The Tigers flipped a then-struggling Norris to the Brewers for minor league righty Reese Olson last summer on July 30, and his results didn’t improve following the swap. He became a free agent after the season and inked a one-year, $1.75MM deal with the Cubs that didn’t pan out as hoped; in 30 innings with Chicago, Norris logged an unsightly 6.90 ERA with a career-best 32.1% strikeout rate but also career-worst marks in walk rate (15.7%) and home run rate (2.10 HR/9).

Since returning to the Tigers organization, Norris has made three starts in Triple-A and allowed a total of two runs on five hits and two walks with five strikeouts. He spent the season in the Cubs’ bullpen and thus wasn’t stretched out much at the time he re-upped with the Tigers, but he did toss four shutout innings with one hit, no walks and three strikeouts in his most recent outing (against the Cubs’ Triple-A affiliate, coincidentally enough).

This could prove to be a short stint on the roster for Norris. However, with each of Pineda, Tarik Skubal, Casey Mize, Beau Brieske, Rony Garcia and Spencer Turnbull all on the injured list — plus Eduardo Rodriguez still working his way back from the restricted list — there’s enough uncertainty on the staff that Norris could earn himself a longer leash if he shows well in his first couple outings.

Tigers Fire General Manager Al Avila

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The Tigers announced that they have parted ways with executive vice president and general manager Al Avila, effective immediately, per a press release from the team. Sam Menzin, vice president and assistant general manager, will continue as the day-to-day contact for the team, per the release. The club’s chairman and CEO Christopher Ilitch says that he will oversee the search for Avila’s replacement.

“Once I decided to make a change, I sat down with Al and thanked him for his nearly 22 years of service to our organization,” Ilitch says in the press release. “Al’s loyalty and dedication has served as an example to all during his time as a leader in our baseball operations department. I will oversee the search process for our next baseball operations leader, in collaboration with several members of our baseball and business operations executive teams.”

Avila is also quoted in the release: “For nearly 22 years, I have given my heart and soul to this franchise, and I want to thank Mr. and Mrs. Ilitch, along with Chris, for the opportunity and treating me and my family as their own,” he says. “We’ve celebrated successes and enjoyed great moments, and I’m proud to have worked with so many talented people in baseball operations and throughout the organization. I’ll cherish our friendships and the successes we all celebrated together. To Tigers fans, you’re the best and you deserve a winner. I wish the results would have been better this season but know there is a lot to look forward to in the coming years.”

Avila, 64, has been the club’s general manager for a few years now, taking over in late 2015 when Dave Dombrowski departed. The club has effectively been in a deep rebuild for the entirety of his tenure, registering a winning percentage below .400 for four straight seasons from 2017 to 2020. They showed some signs of promise last year and then acted aggressively this winter, hoping to return to contention this season. However, they’ve instead suffered a dismal campaign, compounded by various injuries, resulting in a club sporting a record of 43-68, ahead of only the A’s among American League teams. With the rebuild struggling to bear fruit, it seems the club has decided to change course and will begin looking for a new front office arrangement for the upcoming offseason.

Though Avila’s been the key front office person in Detroit for seven years now, his time with the club actually goes back much farther. He was first hired in 2002, having already accrued a decade of experience in baseball, first with the Marlins and then the Pirates. His first role with the Tigers was assistant general manager and vice president, until his promotion, which made him the first Cuban-born general manager in baseball history.

When he took over as general manager in August of 2015, the rebuild had essentially already begun, as the club traded David Price, Yoenis Cespedes and Joakim Soria prior to the trade deadline, while Dombrowski was still at the helm. The club managed to put up a winning record in 2016 but was dismal in the seasons after that. They bottomed out in 2019, going 47-114 for a winning percentage of just .292.

Of course, one benefit of poor seasons is the ability to restock the farm system, with the Tigers having a number of high profile first round draft picks in recent years. Matt Manning, Alex Faedo, Casey Mize, Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Jackson Jobe and Jace Jung have been the club’s first round picks since Avila took over, with both Mize and Torkelson having been selected first overall.

With some of that group reaching the majors in recent years, the club had a decent showing in 2021. Their 77-85 record was much more palatable than previous seasons, leading the team to believe it was time to act aggressively and be done with the tanking process. The Tigers followed through by spending big, giving a $140MM contract to Javier Baez, $77MM to Eduardo Rodriguez, $13MM to Andrew Chafin and $5.5MM to Michael Pineda. The club also turned to the trade market, acquiring Tucker Barnhart from the Reds and Austin Meadows from the Rays.

Unfortunately, all of those moves have failed to work out for various reasons, which only compounded other issues on the roster. The mercurial Baez is hitting .220/.262/.372 on the season for a wRC+ of 77. Rodriguez has only made eight starts for the team due to injuries and personal issues. Chafin has pitched well but he can opt-out of the second year of his deal, which he seems likely to do. Pineda has only made ten starts due to injuries and has a 5.27 ERA on the year. Barnhart has hit .198/.258/.228 for a wRC+ of 41, while Meadows has only played 36 games due to various injuries.

In addition to the struggles of the new additions, the club’s core pieces also failed to deliver in different ways. Former first overall pick Spencer Torkelson made the Opening Day roster but struggled enough to get optioned down to the minors last month. Riley Greene missed the start of the season due to injury and has hit at a below-average level since joining the team. Matt Manning has been limited to just four starts on the year due to injuries, while Mize made just two appearances before Tommy John surgery ended his season.

Not all of that can be placed at Avila’s feet, of course, certainly not the injuries. Still, after years and years of agonizing rebuilding, the club and its fans were surely hoping for more signs of good things to come over the horizon and have found little to none of it this year.

Ilitch and the Tigers will now try to find a new leader to guide the team into its next stage. Given the club’s struggles this year, the organization will be looking ahead to another strong draft position next summer, in order to add to the talent youngsters who, despite their struggles in 2022, could still be key players in seasons to come. There’s also another important pivot point coming up over the horizon, as the last guaranteed season of Miguel Cabrera’s massive contract is 2023, which will free up both a roster spot and plenty of payroll space. The person who decides how to handle those situations in the future will be determined in the months to come.

Tigers To Select Kerry Carpenter

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Aug. 10: The Tigers have announced Carpenter’s selection to reporters, including Woodbery, with righty Beau Brieske being transferred to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move. He will be ineligible to return until 60 days from his initial IL placement, which was due to forearm soreness on July 21. He could technically return in late September, though with the Tigers well out of contention, it seems possible that his season may be finished.

Aug. 9: The Tigers are bringing up corner outfield prospect Kerry Carpenter to make his major league debut, the team informed reporters (including Evan Woodbery of MLive.com). Daz Cameron is being optioned to Triple-A Toledo in a corresponding move. The club will need to clear a spot on the 40-man roster before tomorrow’s game to formally select Carpenter’s contract.

Carpenter, 25 next month, entered pro ball as a 19th-round draft choice back in 2019. The Virginia Tech product wasn’t regarded as a draft prospect of much note and lost his first full professional season to the pandemic cancelation of the minor leagues. He spent last year with Double-A Erie, hitting at a roughly league average level. Few would’ve anticipated he was on the verge of a breakout, but Carpenter has torn the cover off the ball in 2022.

The left-handed hitter started this season back in Erie. He played there through late June, blasting 22 home runs in 63 games. Carpenter’s strikeout and walk rates weren’t great, but his power output was so overwhelming the Tigers bumped him up to Toledo. He’s played 33 games with the Mud Hens and hit even better there than he had in Erie. Carpenter is hitting .342/.433/.667 through 134 Triple-A plate appearances, connecting on eight homers and 11 doubles with matching strikeout and walk rates (12.7% apiece).

Carpenter doesn’t offer much defensive value, so he’ll have to hit at an above-average level to be productive. Baseball America credited him with plus power in ranking him the #12 prospect in the Detroit system midseason, writing that he made some swing changes last offseason that appear to have paid off. He’d have been eligible for the Rule 5 draft if not added to the 40-man roster at the start of the offseason. As they turn their attention to 2023, the Tigers will get their first look at a player they hope can carve out a regular corner outfield role in the coming years.

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