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Four Owners Voted Against MLB’s Most Recent CBA Offer

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March 4: Angels owner Arte Moreno, D-backs owner Ken Kendrick, Reds owner Bob Castellini and Tigers owner Chris Ilitch were all opposed to proposing a $220MM CBT threshold, per Evan Drellich and Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Drellich and Rosenthal add that some concerned owners have pointed to the spending of the Dodgers and the Mets as reasons for trepidation with pushing the luxury tax threshold further north. Martino tweets, rather unsurprisingly, that the Mets and the Yankees are among the teams open to a “less punitive” CBT setup.

The Athletic report also indicates that the players were particularly irritated when MLB proposed counting the cost of player meals against the luxury tax. Whether that’s among the issues recently raised by Blue Jays righty Ross Stripling isn’t clear, but Stripling contended that the league “tried to sneak some shit past us” in the proposal’s “fine print” during the wee hours of Monday night/Tuesday morning negotiations. Health insurance and other player benefits already count toward the luxury tax under the terms of the prior CBA. League special assistant Glen Caplin called reports of MLB trying to include meal money within the CBT “grossly mischaracterized” as part of a statement included in Drellich’s article.

March 3: Major League Baseball’s most recent offer in collective bargaining proved unpalatable to the Players Association, which rejected it despite knowing the league was likely to follow by canceling some regular season games. Various members of union leadership described that as an easy decision, with the MLBPA particularly dissatisfied with the league’s proposals on the competitive balance tax thresholds and the amount of money that would be allotted for the pre-arbitration bonus pool.

While the union found the offer too slanted in favor of the league, some on the MLB side apparently viewed the proposal as going too far towards the players’ asks. Andy Martino of SNY reports that during a video call between all 30 ownership groups and MLB leadership, four owners voted against the terms of the league’s final offer to the union on Tuesday. MLB needs approval from 23 of the 30 ownership groups to agree to their end of a new CBA, so the league was able to proceed with its offer with the assent of the other 26 owners.

Obviously, the terms of that deal weren’t sufficient to get the union’s approval. Yet some of the owners who were on-board with the league’s proposal Tuesday are evidently hesitant to move any further in the players’ direction. Martino writes that the call “made it clear” that more owners would oppose any offer that pushes the base CBT threshold above the $220MM mark the league put forth. The MLBPA, meanwhile, proposed a $238MM base tax marker in 2022. Martino writes that the union refuses to entertain any offer with a 2022 tax threshold lower than $230MM.

There’s currently an $18MM gap on the luxury tax for 2022, and the parties are even more divided on the marker’s long-term future. The MLBPA has sought more rapid escalation of the threshold over the term of a potential CBA than the league has offered. Under the parties’ latest terms, the $18MM gap would rise to a $33MM divide by 2026 — the players were looking to set that year’s figure at $263MM, while MLB proposed $230MM for that season.

Martino’s report sheds some light on the challenges that remain for finding a mutually agreeable settlement on the CBT, which has proven perhaps the biggest sticking point in negotiations. The union has pursued a rapid expansion of the threshold, pointing to team spending habits suggesting the CBT has served as a de facto salary cap for clubs. Last season, five teams finished with CBT payrolls within $5MM of the $210MM base threshold. Two clubs, the Dodgers and Padres, pushed their CBT number above $210MM. Given the union’s longstanding opposition to any form of salary cap, it’s little surprise they’ve sought to dramatically increase the numbers this time around.

The league, meanwhile, has pursued the opposite initiative. MLB’s early CBA proposals included harsher penalties for tax payors, provisions that would’ve presumably made clubs even more reluctant to do so. It dropped the push for tougher penalties this week, but it hasn’t shown the appetite for the kind of higher thresholds the union seeks.

As MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes explored in December, the past two collective bargaining agreements have seen limited growth in the CBT thresholds. From the time of the tax’s introduction in 1997 through 2011, it wasn’t uncommon to see the CBT jump by more than 4% year over year. Since 2012, however, that growth has slowed considerably. The base CBT marker has moved from $178MM that year to $210MM last season, an average hike of less than 2% per year.

The league’s offer to move from $210MM to $220MM would represent a 4.8% year-over-year jump. MLB would presumably posit that’s a meaningful enough increase to be favorable to the players. However, it was followed by no movement on the tax in each of the following two years and minor increases in each of the two seasons thereafter. The union, meanwhile, seems intent on pulling in a more dramatic spike in the tax threshold to somewhat compensate for its slowed progression between 2012-21.

It’s not clear how many owners are inherently opposed to pushing that number beyond $220MM. Martino’s report hints at the conflicted interests that can arise among the ownership groups themselves. Presumably, some large-market clubs that are planning to exceed the CBT anyhow would be on-board with the union’s efforts to encourage penalty-free spending. Others could be anxious to draw a harder line, particularly with the league reportedly content to miss a month’s worth of regular season games in order to pressure the union to move in their direction.

If more than three of the owners who voted yes on MLB’s latest proposal are stringently opposed to going further, the league may be hard-pressed to find the votes to go past $220MM this year. That’d seemingly be unacceptable to the union. If there’s that kind of fundamental disagreement on the luxury tax, it’ll be essentially impossible for the sides to put a new CBA in place.

Tigers Notes: Turnbull, Torkelson, Greene, Barnhart

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Spencer Turnbull was off to a strong start to the 2021 season, working 50 innings of 2.88 ERA ball with a massive 57.2% ground-ball rate over his first nine starts — one of which was a no-hitter against the Mariners. After those productive first two months, the right-hander landed on the injured list with what was originally termed a forearm strain. Early reports indicated that Turnbull may be able to avoid a long-term absence, but it emerged in mid-July that he’d torn his UCL and required Tommy John surgery. That procedure obviously ended his season and its timing cast his 2022 campaign in similar doubt. TJS procedures often require around 14 months of rehab time, raising a question of whether the University of Alabama product will be available at all this year.

Speaking with Chris McCosky of the Detroit News this afternoon, Turnbull expressed optimism about his chances of making it back to the majors late in the season. He tells McCosky he’s been throwing on flat ground for the past few weeks and generally feels his arm is progressing well. Like other players rehabbing from injury, he’s been unable to communicate with team personnel during the lockout. Turnbull described the situation as “weird” and “not ideal” but maintained he’s confident in the non-Tigers medical staff currently leading his recovery. The 29-year-old is controllable through 2024 via arbitration and projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a modest $1.8MM salary this season.

More out of Detroit:

  • The delay to Opening Day puts the Tigers in an odd position with top prospects Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene, writes Cody Stavenhagen of The Athletic. Both were expected to be in the mix for Opening Day roster spots, but the season’s delay will now likely push Major League Spring Training back to the point where it overlaps with the Triple-A season. The Tigers could be faced with pulling the pair from a more competitive setting in Triple-A to fly them back down to Florida for exhibition play — and then perhaps disrupting their season by sending them back to Toledo (where the team’s Triple-A affiliate plays) if either player is ultimately reassigned. It’s not a situation that’s unique to the Tigers, and one could even argue that Detroit is in an advantageous position, given that their two best prospects — both considered Top 10 throughout all of MLB — are both off the 40-man roster. The fact that neither is on the 40-man yet means that both are at least able to work out with team staff at their spring facility in Lakeland. Still, the organization faced a potentially difficult decision in the first place, and the delay to Opening Day adds another layer. Stavenhagen also has quotes from both players on the matter and some general observations from minicamp.
  • The Tigers kicked off their offseason by acquiring backstop Tucker Barnhart from the Reds. The seven-year veteran has taken on an active role in the MLB Players Association for the bulk of his career, and he’s been involved in the union’s efforts during this stage of collective bargaining talks. Barnhart spoke with Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free-Press in the wake of the league’s announcement Tuesday that it was canceling the first two series of the regular season. The two-time Gold Glove winner, who wasn’t attending this week’s negotiations in-person, admitted he woke up Tuesday morning believing the parties would finalize a new CBA in time to avoid that outcome based on the optimistic reports that had trickled out the night before. However, Barnhart says he learned Tuesday morning that while the previous night’s discussions had made some progress, the gaps hadn’t been closed as much as had seemed — a common refrain echoed by many on the players’ side. He and Petzold discuss the various issues that remain to be sorted out.

Ryan Kreidler Ready For Any Position

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  • Tigers prospect Ryan Kreidler may know a few things about position changes, as the longtime shortstop saw Javier Baez suddenly emerge as a roadblock after Baez landed in the Motor City on a six-year, $140MM deal.  While Baez can opt out of that contract after the 2023 season, Kreidler will likely be focusing on other positions in the interim — he has played a handful of games at third base and second base during his two minor league seasons.  “I will do whatever the Tigers want me to do, whether it’s shortstop, shortstop and third base, or utility,” Kreidler told Chris McCosky of The Detroit News.  “Whatever they deem me capable of doing I will do it to the best of my ability and just keep trucking…I think shortstops have the ability to play all over the field, that’s why continuing to take reps at shortstop is good for me.”  After a strong performance at the plate in 2021, Kreidler drew the attention of prospect evaluators and other teams, and now looks like yet another promising young Detroit player on the cusp of the big leagues.  Jonathan Schoop and Jeimer Candelario have second and third base spoken for, and are both also controlled through 2023, so a utility role might indeed be Kreidler’s best path to the Tigers’ active roster.

Latest On Carlos Correa

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Going into the offseason, there were many parallels between the top two free agents, Carlos Correa and Corey Seager. Both were shortstops reaching free agency at the age of 27 and coming off excellent platform seasons. Seager, along with agent Scott Boras, secured a ten-year, $325MM contract from the Rangers prior to the lockout. Correa, however, did not sign before transactions were frozen and then hired the Boras corporation to represent him in January. Once the lockout is lifted, his continued search for a contract will be one of the top storylines to follow. Joel Sherman of the New York Post takes a look at some of the options, including the Dodgers, Yankees, Blue Jays, Tigers and Cubs, while Ken Rosenthal and Corey Brock of The Athletic, look into the fit with the Red Sox and Mariners, respectively.

The Dodgers, of course, had Seager as their shortstop in recent years and just saw him depart for the Rangers. The expectation has been that they were comfortable enough with that loss because they could rely on Trea Turner to take over at short. If the Dodgers were to then pivot to Correa, however, that would likely involve Turner moving over to second base, much like he did when he and Seager were on the roster together after he was acquired from the Nationals at last year’s trade deadline. Since Turner is just one year away from free agency, signing a long-term deal with Correa could be a way to proactively address the shortstop void one year before it’s absolutely necessary. This scenario seems to have been already considered by the Dodgers’ brass, as Sherman reports that they offered Seager a $275MM deal before he signed with the Rangers. However, he also notes that it might not be as simple as swapping Correa in for Seager, as Correa’s role in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal might not go over so well with fans of the Dodgers, since they were defeated by that now-infamous team in the 2017 World Series.

That same issue is present with another reported suitor, the Yankees, as they were felled by the Astros in the 2017 ALCS. But Yankees’ general manager Brian Cashman has previously stated that the reaction of the fans “is not going to enter my calculus right now.” Since Gleyber Torres was moved to second base last year, it was expected that the Yankees would be major players in this year’s shortstop market. However, they may be willing to eschew a big splash, preferring to target a short-term stopgap option to hold down the position until it’s taken over by one of their prospects, either Oswald Peraza or Anthony Volpe. It’s also possible that this is merely a posture for negotiating purposes and that the club may emerge as a genuine suitor for Correa. Jon Heyman of MLB Network tweets that they did check in with Correa prior to the lockout, but seemed to prefer Seager. Since Correa was reportedly looking for a contract slightly above what Seager eventually got, it may be difficult for a deal to come together.

The Blue Jays have less of an obvious need for Correa, given the presence of Bo Bichette at short. Sherman opines that the club could sign Correa and then bump Bichette to either second or third, but then downplays the possibility of them dishing out a contract nearing Correa’s asking price. Given the fact that they were reportedly in the mix for Seager prior to the lockout, the possibility can’t be ruled out entirely. The sign-stealing situation clearly isn’t an issue for the Jays, as they’ve already signed George Springer, Correa’s teammate in Houston. But even if they do have the payroll to make a big splash after the lockout, they may use it to make a run at Freddie Freeman instead.

The Tigers have long been considered a speculative fit for Correa, given the fact that their manager is A.J. Hinch, who previously managed Correa in Houston. However, they already made a big investment at shortstop when they signed Javier Baez prior to the lockout. Although Baez played some second base with the Mets last year in deference to Francisco Lindor and could theoretically do the same again, it still would be shocking to see them double down in such an aggressive fashion. Sherman also speculates that the Cubs could be a dark horse here. The club was primarily focused on tearing down last year, trading away most of the core pieces from their previous competitive window, including Baez, Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo. Since the offseason began, they have been surprisingly active in making additions, bringing on Marcus Stroman, Yan Gomes and Wade Miley. However, those players were all brought aboard with short-term commitments and pivoting to the type of lengthy deal that would be required to sign Correa seems unlikely at this stage.

As for the Red Sox, Rosenthal lays out a scenario where Correa takes over as their shortstop given that his defense is far superior to that of Xander Bogaerts, who could be shuffled over to second base. However, he also points out that, given the lockout-shortened Spring Training to come, there will be less time for Bogaerts to develop his skills at a new position than there would be in a more normal year, perhaps making the plan too awkward to implement successfully. After this season, Bogaerts can opt-out of the three years and $60MM that will be remaining on his contract, something that he seems likely to do if he has another healthy and productive season. Signing Correa now could be a way for Boston to preemptively replace Bogaerts, but as Rosenthal points out, the club hasn’t signed a free agent contract larger than $14MM since Chaim Bloom became the club’s chief baseball officer. Suddenly dropping $300MM on the table would be a huge departure in strategy. However, it’s exactly because of that avoidance of significant commitments that the club’s future payroll is fairly blank. If Bogaerts does indeed opt out after this season, that would leave Chris Sale as the only serious commitment on the books.

For the Mariners, Brock doesn’t believe it likely that there’s a match here. However, he points out that, if Correa is interested in going to Seattle, they have the money to make it happen. The club’s payroll for the year is currently around $87MM, in the estimation of Jason Martinez of Roster Resource. From 2015 to 2019, the club’s annual budget hovered in the $120-160MM range, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts. That leaves plenty of breathing room, if the club is willing to push up to those spending levels again in an attempt to build on last year’s 90-win campaign. The team’s president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto previously stated that the club wouldn’t supplant J.P. Crawford as the team’s shortstop, but it’s hard to imagine that strategy is so etched in stone that they wouldn’t consider adding a talent like Correa if the stars aligned for them to do so.

Clearly, there are many ways Correa’s market could play out once the lockout ends. With the freezing of transactions and contract negotiations, we can’t really know the intentions of any of these parties until that ice breaks and dominos start falling again. Due to the compressed timeline that will eventually exist between the signing of a new CBA and the start of the season, this will all have to play out in an expedited fashion. And with Boras also representing many other high-profile free agents like Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon and more, that figures to make the situation all the more frenzied.

Tigers Notes: Torkelson, Greene, Hess

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The Tigers announced Spencer Torkelson as a third baseman when they selected him with the first overall pick in the 2020 draft. That was in spite of the fact that Torkelson was primarily a first baseman/corner outfielder at Arizona State University, where fellow prospects Alika Williams, Drew Swift and Gage Workman generally covered the more demanding positions on the dirt. The primary selling point for Torkelson has always been his bat, but there was no harm for the Tigers in giving him some action on a position of higher import in the minors.

Last season, Torkelson started 75 minor league games at first base while logging 43 starts at the hot corner. He played exclusively first base upon reaching Triple-A in mid-August, though, and Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press writes that he’s worked solely at first thus far in minor league minicamp. Petzold suggests the Tigers view Torkelson as a permanent first baseman moving forward. That’s largely been the opinion of most prospect evaluators anyhow, yet the 22-year-old is still regarded among the top handful of minor league talents in the game. After hitting .267/.383/.552 across three levels in his first full professional season, Torkelson was rated by Baseball America as the sport’s No. 5 overall farmhand. He figures to be the Tigers regular first baseman before long, where’d he join Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario and Javier Baez in the primary infield.

More out of the Motor City:

  • Petzold also profiles fellow top prospect Riley Greene, the No. 5 overall selection from the 2019 draft, noting that Greene has a “good chance” to break camp with the Major League club in 2022. Greene, ranked by Baseball America as the game’s No. 4 overall prospect (one spot ahead of Torkelson), will vie with former first-rounder Derek Hill and Victor Reyes for an outfield spot alongside veteran Robbie Grossman and Rule 5 sensation Akil Baddoo. The 21-year-old Greene posted a massive .301/.387/.534 with 24 home runs, 25 doubles, eight triples and 16 stolen bases (in 17 attempts). Greene did fan in 27.4% of his plate appearances, but his power and a hearty 11.3% walk rate helped to combat those punchouts. If Greene does break camp with the big league club, he’d be penciled in as manager AJ Hinch’s everyday center fielder. It’d be a departure from conventional industry wisdom, as top minor leaguers such as Greene and Torkelson are regularly held down for a few weeks early in the season to secure a seventh year of club control. The Tigers are aiming to get back to contention this season, however, and an extra few weeks of their best prospect(s) could prove vital in that regard. It’s also possible, of course, that changes to the service time mechanics are agreed upon under the forthcoming collective bargaining agreement anyhow.
  • Right-handed pitching prospect Zack Hess will miss the entire 2022 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery in January, reports Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). Hess, who’ll turn 25 this week, ranks 25th among Detroit farmhands over at FanGraphs and, based on his 2021 output, might’ve eventually emerged as a big league bullpen option in 2022 had he been healthy. The 2019 seventh-rounder posted a combined 3.42 ERA and punched out 29.6% of his opponents between Class-A Advanced (49 2/3 innings) and Double-A (three innings) this past season. He also allowed just six homers in that time (1.02 HR/9). The big red flag for Hess was command, as he also issued a free pass to 15% of his opponents. Hess will need to improve upon that command, of course, but he won’t have the opportunity to hone that skill until the 2023 season at the earliest, it seems.

AL Notes: Royals, Boone, Yankees, Tigers, Hernandez

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Many of the Royals’ best pitching prospects are returning from injury-shortened seasons, yet as MLB.com’s Anne Rogers writes, most of these young arms are back at the club’s minor league camp in good health.  The most prominent of these names is Asa Lacy, the fourth overall pick of the 2020 draft and a consensus top-40 prospect heading into the 2021 season, though Lacy’s stock has dropped a bit after a rough debut year.

The left-hander posted a 5.19 ERA over 52 innings in high-A ball, with a strong 33.3% strikeout rate but also a garish 17.3% walk rate.  Discomfort in his throwing shoulder sidelined Lacy for a good chunk of the season, though he felt well enough to pitch 7 2/3 more frames during Arizona Fall League action, with mixed results.  Lacy delivered a 2.35 ERA and 15 strikeouts over that smaller sample size, but still issued six walks.  It isn’t uncommon for players (even those without injury concerns) to have some trouble adjusting to their first taste of minor league ball, and both Lacy and the Royals are hopeful this was just a bump in the road of Lacy’s development.

Some other items from around the American League…

  • The Yankees and manager Aaron Boone are still looking at candidates to become the club’s third hitting coach, Joel Sherman of The New York Post writes.  When last we heard of the Yankees’ search, the Bronx Bombers were hoping to land a former MLB player in the role — neither hitting coach Dillon Lawson and assistant hitting coach Casey Dykes played pro ball.  (Eric Chavez was initially hired for the job but then headed crosstown to become the Mets’ new hitting coach.)  How close the Yankees might be to finding that new coach is unknown, as Sherman indicated that a hire could come this week, or the team might just stick with two hitting coaches if they can’t find a good fit for that third position.  The hitting coach search is just of several topics broached within a wide-ranging interview with Boone about the manager’s tenure in the Bronx, the challenges of the lockout, and keeping the staff prepared for what might be a rushed Spring Training.
  • Wilkel Hernandez threw his first bullpen session at the Tigers’ minor league minicamp Sunday, Evan Petzold of The Detroit Fress Press writes.  The right-handed prospect hasn’t pitched since 2019 due to the canceled 2020 minor league season and then Tommy John surgery in October 2020.  Even despite this missed time, Hernandez (who turns 23 in April) still has four years of pro experience, after joining the Angels as an international signing in 2015.  Hernandez came to Detroit’s organization in December 2017, as one of two minors pitchers acquired from the Angels in exchange for Ian Kinsler.

Central Notes: Kuhnel, Reds, Tigers, Moreno, Jobe

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In 2019, right-hander Joel Kuhnel threw 53 2/3 innings between Double-A and Triple-A with an ERA of 2.18, strikeout rate of 23.3% and walk rate of 7.4%. Just 24 years old at the time, he also made his MLB debut that year, logging 9 2/3 innings out of the Reds’ bullpen. Unfortunately, he hasn’t been able to build off that strong campaign, with injuries hampering him over the subsequent two years. In 2020, a shoulder issue limited him to just three big league innings. Due to the pandemic wiping out the minors, those are the only innings on his ledger that year. He underwent surgery to repair a torn capsule in his right shoulder in October of 2020 and was outrighted off the roster, then was rehabbing for much of 2021, throwing eight minor league innings on the year.

Kuhnel is now getting geared up in spring training for 2022, since he is not on Cincy’s 40-man roster and not affected by the lockout. Mark Sheldon of MLB.com checked in with the 27-year-old as he tries to get back on track. “Everything feels normal,” Kuhnel said. “It feels better than ever, really.” The Reds’ bullpen didn’t do them many favors in 2021, as their 4.99 ERA ranked 27th in baseball, only beating out the non-competitive Diamondbacks, Nationals and Orioles. Advanced metrics were a bit kinder, but not by much, with Reds’ relievers putting up a 4.56 FIP and 4.34 xFIP. The club has been rumored to be cutting payroll this offseason, making it unlikely they bolster their staff with a big free agent splash. That means that improvement from internal options like Kuhnel will be important for them as they try to walk a fine line of keeping spending down but staying competitive.

Some other Central notes…

  • Chris McCoskey of The Detroit News is at the Tigers’ spring training facility, even if none of the players on the 40-man roster are. One player in camp that caught his eye is Gerson Moreno, who was selected to the club’s roster after the 2017 season. 22 years old at the time, Moreno lasted just a few months on the roster as he required Tommy John surgery. The Tigers released and re-signed him in the summer of 2018. His rehab period wiped out most of his 2018 and 2019, then the pandemic wiped out the minors in 2020. Last year, Moreno was finally able to get some significant time on the mound, throwing 49 innings between Double-A and Triple-A. His 4.59 ERA doesn’t jump out, but his 33.2% strikeout rate is excellent. It does, however, come with an elevated 13.2% walk rate. The Tigers spent big already this offseason to upgrade their rotation and lineup with Eduardo Rodriguez and Javier Baez but haven’t made a big move in the bullpen. If the 26-year-old Moreno can take a step forward, he could give them a boost from within.
  • Other than Eduardo Rodriguez, the Tigers’ rotation consists of hurlers they drafted and developed: Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, Matt Manning and Tyler Alexander. The next guy behind them on that path is Jackson Jobe, according to Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press. Selected by the Tigers with the third overall pick in last year’s draft, Jobe is just 19 years old and isn’t close to the majors, but is already drawing rave reviews. MLB Pipeline ranks him the 46th-best prospect in baseball and Baseball America places him in the 79th spot. Petzold spoke to one scout, who had nothing but superlatives to offer about the right-hander, giving Jobe’s fastball and changeup 70s and his breaking ball an 80, on the 20-80 scouting scale. Jobe is still quite young, meaning Tigers fans will need to be patient, but the scout offers this as the ceiling: “If everything lines up, he’s the No. 1 starter in the big leagues on a championship team.”

The Tigers Continue To Benefit From 2017 Deadline Trade

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The Tigers and Cubs were going in polar opposite directions in 2017. Detroit was headed towards a last place finish that would kick off the massive rebuild from which they’re only now emerging. Chicago was trying to defend their drought-breaking World Series title, eyeing another division championship as part of what looked to be a dynasty in the making.

Given their respective competitive windows, they made for natural trade partners as that summer’s deadline approached. The Tigers were clearly preparing to sell off some productive big leaguers; the Cubs were willing to part with young talent to bolster their push for another championship. The day before the deadline, they agreed to a deal that sent a pair of veteran role players from Detroit to Chicago in exchange for two young infielders. Catcher Alex Avila and reliever Justin Wilson landed on the North Side, while Jeimer Candelario and Isaac Paredes headed to the Tigers.

Nearly five years later, the Tigers are reaping the benefits of that swap. Candelario, who had logged the briefest of action at the MLB level in each of the previous two seasons, served as a near-ready pickup. A corner infielder, he had no path to playing time on a Cubs team with Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo on the roster. But the Tigers could afford to give him regular run, and he was an everyday player by September.

Candelario has been a regular for much of the time since. He played in 144 games in 2018, performing around the league average on both sides of the ball. His 2019 campaign was a disaster, as his power evaporated and he was optioned on and off the active roster a few times throughout the year. That seemed to call his long-term future into question, but Candelario has turned things around over the past couple seasons.

The switch-hitter returned to appear in 52 of the Tigers’ 60 games during the shortened 2020 campaign. He posted career-best numbers, managing a .297/.369/.503 line over 206 plate appearances. That’s a very impressive showing but it’d have been easy to write that off as something of an outlier. Not only were those numbers compiled in an abbreviated schedule, he benefitted from an unsustainable .372 batting average on balls in play.

To his credit, Candelario largely backed up that strong performance last year. He tallied a personal-high 626 plate appearances over 149 games, hitting .271/.351/.443 with 16 home runs and an MLB-best 42 doubles. As expected, a .039 point dip in BABIP dropped his overall numbers a bit relative to 2020. Still, last season’s production checked in 19 percentage points above the league average (119 wRC+), and he did that over a much larger body of work than he had the year before. He now owns a .278/.356/.458 mark (123 wRC+) in 832 trips to the plate going back two seasons.

Nothing Candelario does stands out as excellent, but he has developed into a well-rounded offensive player. His contact rate, hard contact frequency and average exit velocity are all slightly above-average. So too are his line drive and barrel rates, as Candelario has demonstrated a knack for consistently squaring balls up. He’s been effective from both sides of the plate — .299/.350/.473 as a righty hitter; .270/.358/.453 as a lefty — allowing skipper A.J. Hinch to plug him into the lineup no matter the matchup. And while Candelario’s not a great defender at the hot corner, public metrics have considered him competent there. With top prospect Spencer Torkelson soon to assume first base duties in the Motor City, Candelario should be plugged in at third for at least the next couple seasons.

The Tigers’ rebuild has been ongoing for a few years, so Candelario’s recent production has flown a bit under the radar on non-competitive teams. Yet Detroit played reasonably well down the stretch, and this winter’s signings of Eduardo Rodríguez and Javier Báez — coupled with the looming debuts of Torkelson and Riley Greene — indicate they’re hoping to turn the corner in 2022. Candelario now looks like a key piece of that effort, and he remains under club control through 2023 via arbitration.

Paredes, who was in Low-A at the time of the trade, also remains in the Detroit organization. He’s yet to find much MLB success, but he’s coming off an impressive .265/.397/.451 showing over 315 plate appearances with Triple-A Toledo. He still has a pair of minor league option years remaining and could yet develop into a productive infielder himself.

That the deal worked as the Tigers had hoped — at least the Candelario pick-up — doesn’t mean it didn’t pan out for the Cubs. As mentioned, Candelario was going to have a hard time finding playing time in Chicago anyhow. The Cubs obviously didn’t develop into a dynasty, but their acquisitions of Avila and Wilson proved successful enough. The former hit .239/.369/.380 in 112 plate appearances down the stretch, providing a strong on-base presence behind Willson Contreras before departing in free agency. Wilson spent a year and a half in Chicago, posting a cumulative 3.86 ERA/3.66 FIP across 72 1/3 frames of relief. Neither player was a franchise-altering star, but they were never intended to be. Avila and Wilson were brought aboard to fill specific areas on the roster (backup catcher and left-handed relief, respectively), and they both fared reasonably in doing so.

All in all, it seems this trade served both teams well. Going in differing competitive directions, the Cubs’ and Tigers’ needs aligned. Avila and Wilson were short-term but effective players for Chicago, while Candelario has since developed into the solid regular Detroit envisioned. After a significant rebuild, the Tigers are hoping to contend this year. Candelario continuing to perform as he did from 2020-21 would be a quiet but important asset alongside their big-ticket additions and graduating top prospects.

Tigers, Jack Lopez Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Tigers have agreed to a minor league contract with free-agent infielder Jack Lopez, as first reported by former big league infielder Carlos Baerga (on Instagram). Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press tweets that Lopez has signed a deal and will head to the Tigers’ spring facility in Lakeland, Fla. for minicamp.

The 29-year-old Lopez won a Silver Medal as part of Team USA during last summer’s Olympics. He made his Major League debut with the Red Sox not long after returning, going 2-for-13 with a pair of doubles in a tiny sample of seven games. He split the rest of his season between Double-A (five games) and Triple-A (68 games), batting a combined .285/.355/.413 with four homers, 17 doubles, a triple and 15 steals (in 17 tries) over the life of 273 plate appearances.

Lopez, a 16th-round pick by the Royals back in 2011, has appeared in parts of nine minor league seasons and logged a collective .241/.295/.331 batting line in that time. The vast majority of his professional experience has come at the two middle infield slots, with more time at shortstop than at second base. Lopez also has more than 1200 professional innings at the hot corner, in addition to some more sparse work in the outfield.

Baseball America at one point ranked Lopez among the middle tiers of the Royals’ farm system, noting that his range, soft hands and solid arm gave him a chance to handle shortstop at the big league level. That was seven years ago, and the the bat obviously hasn’t panned out as hoped, but Lopez will give the Tigers some defensive value and versatility to stash in the upper minors.

Tigers Sign Carlos Sanabria, Chris Rabago To Minors Contracts

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The Tigers have signed right-hander Carlos Sanabria and catcher Chris Rabago to minor league deals, The Detroit Free Press’ Evan Petzold reports.  Presumably, both players will be invited to the Tigers’ big league Spring Training camp whenever the lockout ends and camp opens for Major League players.

Sanabria pitched in the Royals’ farm system in 2021, after spending his first seven pro seasons in the Astros organization.  It’s fair to speculate that Tigers manager A.J. Hinch had a hand in recruiting Sanabria to Detroit, as Hinch was undoubtedly familiar with the righty when Hinch was managing the Astros from 2015-19.  Sanabria didn’t make his big league debut until Hinch had left Houston, however, as Sanabria’s MLB resume consists of two games and two innings with the Astros in 2020.

Still only 25 years old, Sanabria has a 3.82 ERA and 23% strikeout rate over 412 1/3 career innings in the minor leagues, working only as a reliever over the last four seasons.  Much of Sanabria’s success has come at the lower levels, as he has a 5.27 ERA at Triple-A, albeit over just 27 1/3 innings of work.  A greater concern may be a lack of control that has more or less been an issue for Sanabria over his career, and has particularly manifested itself over the last few years; Sanabria has a 14.75% walk rate over 113 1/3 combined innings at the Double-A and Triple-A levels.

Rabago was a 13th-round pick for the Rockies in the 2014 draft, and he has played almost all of his career in Colorado’s farm system apart from a seven-game stint with the Yankees’ Double-A squad in 2018.  Rabago has hit .248/.327/.348 over 1727 plate appearances in the minors, including a very similar .240/.325/.346 slash in 235 PA at the Triple-A level.

Rabago will provide the Tigers with further depth at a catching position that is headlined by new arrival Tucker Barnhart.  The versatile Eric Haase is the primary backup on the big league roster and can also be used in the outfield, while Dustin Garneau is at Triple-A providing more experience.  Jake Rogers will miss a good chunk of the 2022 season recovering from a Tommy John surgery from last September.

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