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Latest On Astros, LeMahieu, Correa

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12:43PM: In an update to his original story, Rosenthal writes that the Astros are “not engaged in any active conversations on Correa.”  The team has, however, been in touch with LeMahieu.

11:39AM: The Astros are “floating” Carlos Correa’s name in trade talks with other teams, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports (subscription required).  This isn’t the first time that Correa has been mentioned as a possible trade candidate, though last year, then-general manager Jeff Luhnow shot down the possibility.

The root cause of Houston’s openness to a Correa trade remains the same — the team considers it “unlikely” that the shortstop will sign an extension before he hits free agency.  Correa is now only one season away from hitting the open market, as he is slated to be part of an elite group of shortstops headlining the 2021-22 free agent class.

Beyond Correa’s contract, naturally, the Astros face an entirely new set of issues that weren’t present when they thought about moving Correa last winter, ranging from the sign-stealing scandal that ousted Luhnow and then-manager A.J. Hinch, revenue losses caused by the pandemic, to Justin Verlander being lost to Tommy John surgery for the 2021 season.  Plus, the Astros also face the loss of two other notable position players, as George Springer and Michael Brantley are both free agents.

Moving Correa on top of losing both Springer and Brantley could almost make 2021 into something of a mini-rebuild type of season for Houston, though there hasn’t been any indication that the Astros are looking to take much of a step backwards.  For instance, the Astros have had talks with Brantley and (as a replacement for Springer in center field) Jackie Bradley Jr.

However, Rosenthal reports that the Astros aren’t likely to pursue any of Trevor Bauer, J.T. Realmuto, or DJ LeMahieu, as since those players rejected qualifying offers, Houston would have to give up draft picks in order to sign them.  This isn’t an appetizing thought for an organization that already lost multiple picks as part of their punishment for the sign-stealing scandal.  Re-signing their own free agent in Springer (who also turned down a QO) wouldn’t cost the Astros any picks, of course, though Houston might prefer to restock their draft coffers with the compensatory pick received if Springer signed elsewhere.

Trading Correa would also theoretically net a good return for the Astros, though a lot of factors will impact his market.  Teams might not be keen on paying a premium for just one year of Correa’s services, and there are several other options available to shortstop-needy teams in both free agency (Marcus Semien, Didi Gregorius, Andrelton Simmons, Ha-Seong Kim) and in trades (Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez).

Correa is coming off a season that saw him hit only .264/.326/.383 over 221 plate appearances in the regular season, but he caught fire during Houston’s postseason run, with a whopping 1.221 OPS over 55 PA.  Correa is entering his final year of arbitration eligibility and is projected to earn $8.8MM under the “37 percent” calculation method of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz.

Astros Select Five Players To 40-Man Roster

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The Astros are adding five players to their 40-man roster, per a team announcement. Right-handers Forrest Whitley, Tyler Ivey, Jairo Solis and Peter Solomon were all selected, as was infielder Freudis Nova.

The most notable player of the group is Whitley. Once regarded as one of the best (if not the best) pitching prospect in the sport, he’s seen his stock drop a bit over the past couple seasons due to a suspension and some struggles in the high minors. Nevertheless, it was a lock the Astros would add him to the 40-man, as the 23-year-old still has one of the better arsenals in the minors. Like Whitley, Nova and Solis were ranked among Houston’s top ten farmhands at MLB.com and virtual certainties to be added to the roster.

Reds Acquire Brandon Bailey From Astros

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The Reds announced Friday that they’ve acquired righty Brandon Bailey from the Astros in exchange for cash. In a separate move, Cincinnati also acquired minor league right-hander Fredy Medina from Houston. Medina will serve as the player to be named later from the earlier trade that sent southpaw Brooks Raley to the Astros.

In addition to that pair of trades with Houston, the Reds announced that they’ve selected the contracts of right-hander Vladimir Gutierrez, Riley O’Brien and Jared Solomon. All are now on the 40-man roster and protected from selection in next month’s Rule 5 Draft. Cincinnati’s 40-man roster is now up to 36 players.

It’s been three years to the day since the 26-year-old Bailey was last traded, going from the Athletics to the Astros. Unfortunately for the ’Stros, that trade sent a minor league outfielder by the name of Ramon Laureano to Oakland. Houston apparently didn’t care to protect Laureano in advance of the Rule 5 Draft — a clear misstep that proved to be a godsend for one of their chief division rivals.

Bailey has clearly intrigued other clubs, however. The Orioles selected him in last year’s Rule 5 Draft, and the Astros gave him a look in the Majors this past year. Now, the Reds are keen on giving him a 40-man roster spot of their own. He’s allowed a pair of runs in 7 1/3 MLB innings and carries a 3.45 ERA with a 126-to-50 K/BB ratio in 117 1/3 innings at the Double-A level.

Medina, who turned 23 in April, is something of a long shot for the Reds, it would seem. He’s yet to play above the Rookie-level Gulf Coast League and has walked 51 hitters in 74 professional innings. Considering the fact that Raley turned out to be a nice 2020 piece to the Houston ’pen and is controlled through 2021, the ’Stros have to feel good about how that deal turned out.

D-backs Claim Rogelio Armenteros, Outright Domingo Leyba

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The Diamondbacks announced Friday that they’ve claimed righty Rogelio Armenteros off waivers from the Astros and outrighted infielder Domingo Leyba to Triple-A Reno. The D-backs’ roster is at 37 players. The Astros are down to 35.

Armenteros, 26, didn’t pitch in 2020 owing to surgery that removed a bone spur from his right elbow. He made his big league debut with the Astros in 2019, however, and pitched to a 4.00 ERA with an 18-to-5 K/BB ratio in 18 innings (four starts). The righty has a generally sharp track record in parts of three seasons in the hitter-friendly Triple-A Pacific Coast League, having compiled a 3.73 ERA with averages of 10 strikeouts, 3.4 walks and 1.2 homers per nine innings pitched. He also has a minor league option remaining, so he’ll represent a nice depth addition for the D-backs’ staff.

Leyba, 25, came to the D-backs alongside Robbie Ray back in 2014’s three-team swap that sent Didi Gregorius to the Bronx and Shane Greene to Detroit. He made his MLB debut in 2019 and batted .280/.367/.440 in a tiny sample of 30 plate appearances, but he’s been oft-injured throughout his minor league career and has shown a glaring lack of power outside of 2019’s juiced-ball season in Triple-A. He has strong bat-to-ball skills, striking out in just 14 percent of his career plate appearances in the minors, but the fact that he went unclaimed is indicative of concerns surrounding his overall game.

Braves Claim Jack Mayfield, Select Kyle Muller

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The Braves announced Friday that they’ve claimed infielder Jack Mayfield off waivers from the Astros. Lefty Kyle Muller was also selected to the 40-man roster, protecting him from the Rule 5 Draft. The moves bring Atlanta’s 40-man roster to a total of 38 players. Mayfield’s departure drops Astros’ 40-man count to 36.

Mayfield, 30, has seen time with the ’Stros in each of the past two seasons but managed only a .170/.198/.283 batting line through 112 plate appearances at the big league level. It’s obviously a tiny sample of work, however, and Mayfield’s career .268/.325/.472 slash in parts of four Triple-A seasons (1224 plate appearances) creates some more reason for optimism.

With the Astros, Mayfield  served as a right-handed-hitting backup at second base, shortstop and third base, grading well defensively at each position. He also still has minor league options remaining, so he could be a depth piece the Braves shuttle between the Majors and Triple-A Gwinnett in 2021 if he survives the offseason on the 40-man roster.

Muller, 23, was a second-round pick by Atlanta back in 2016. He’s long ranked among the organization’s more promising arms and has impressed with a 3.12 ERA and nearly a strikeout per frame in 140 2/3 Double-A innings. However, he’s also been critiqued for sub-par command, and that flaw was apparent in 2019 when he walked 68 batters, plunked another seven and rattled off 16 wild pitches in 111 2/3 frames.

Sugar Land Skeeters To Become Astros’ Triple-A Affiliate

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The Sugar Land Skeeters will become the Astros’ new Triple-A affiliate, Mark Berman of Fox 26 reports. The two sides reached an agreement in which the Astros will have an ownership stake in the Skeeters, according to Berman. The length of the deal isn’t known yet.

This is a big step for the Skeeters, a Texas-based team that has been an independent club in the Atlantic League since its inception in 2010. They’ve had a number of familiar major league names on their roster since then, including Roger Clemens, Rafael Palmeiro and Scott Kazmir. With no minors campaign in 2020, the Skeeters launched the four-team Constellation Energy League, which they won with help from some ex-major leaguers you may recognize when looking at their roster.

The fact that the Astros have a new Triple-A team will leave the Round Rock Express with some uncertainty. Round Rock spent the previous two years as Houston’s top minor league club, though it only got one season of play (2019) because of the pandemic.

Orioles Receive Miguel Padilla To Complete Hector Velázquez Trade

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12:18 pm: The Orioles will receive right-hander Miguel Padilla from the Astros, the Orioles announced. Per their announcement on Twitter: “Padilla, 18, was originally signed by the Astros on November 26, 2018, as an International free agent out of Carora, Venezuela. He appeared in 19 games for the DSL Astros in 2019, pitching to a 4-1 record with a 2.08 ERA (6 ER/26.0 IP) and 26 strikeouts.“ As noted below, the move isn’t likely to affect the Orioles’ 40-man roster.

7:26 am: The Orioles are close to completing a July 29th trade that sent Hector Velázquez to the Astros for a player to be named later, per Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com.

The funny thing about this trade is that Velázquez never appeared in a game for the Orioles, and he hasn’t appeared in a game for the Astros either. The Orioles claimed Velázquez off waivers from the Red Sox in March. He was part of the O’s original 60-man player pool, though he had been outrighted off their 40-man roster just before Opening Day.

The trade was a depth move for the Astros, but Velázquez never got the call. Still, they’ll be sending something back to Baltimore in the near future. The deal still makes some sense for Houston, as with just 2.017 days of service time, the Astros now control the right-hander’s rights for another four seasons.

In parts of three seasons with the Red Sox, Velazquez showed flashes of promise, including a 3.18 ERA over 85 innings during the Red Sox’ 2018 championship season. The swingman has never produced thick-enough strikeout rates, however, and when his walk rate rose from 2.8 BB/9 in 2018 to 4.5 BB/9 in 2019, his ERA rose with it to a 5.43 ERA. By Fielding Independent Pitching, however, his 2018 season (4.15 FIP) was neither as good as it seemed, nor was his 2019 season (4.74 FIP) quite as bad as it seemed. He’ll be an option for Houston’s bullpen in 2021.

Both teams are trying to finalize their 40-man roster additions before Friday, at which point any players eligible for December’s Rule 5 draft will be left unprotected. It’s likely that Baltimore’ return won’t feature a player in that field, but it’s certainly possible, in which case Baltimore would surely prefer a resolution in the coming days.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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Even though they finished under .500 for the first time since 2014, the Astros still found a way to overcome key injuries and make it to their fourth consecutive ALCS this year. However this offseason pans out, the Astros could still have enough talent on hand to push for another playoff berth in 2021. For now, though, general manager James Click & Co. are at risk of losing two high-end hitters in free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

Outfielder George Springer has been a premier hitter and a face of the Houston franchise going back to his first year in 2014, though his Astros tenure may be on the verge of ending. After rejecting the Astros’ $18.9MM qualifying offer, the 31-year-old is now unquestionably one of the few elite players on the open market, where MLBTR predicts he’ll rake in a five-year, $125MM payday. Of course, that’s assuming teams will be willing to spend that type of money this offseason after the pandemic took its toll on the league’s finances over the past several months.

The Astros, for their part, have doled out some huge contracts in recent years (the club also took on Zack Greinke’s money in a trade). They also threw around a bit of cash this fall when they made the somewhat eyebrow-raising move to re-sign first baseman Yuli Gurriel to a one-year, $7MM contract despite an uninspiring campaign. However, it remains to be seen whether all of the guaranteed deals on the payroll will have a negative effect on their chances of re-signing Springer, as owner Jim Crane may be reluctant to go to $100MM-plus lengths for him. Furthermore, as Cody Poage of The Crawfish Boxes recently explained in a rundown of the Astros’ payroll, they only have about $37.5MM to spend if they want to stay under the $210MM luxury-tax threshold in 2021. That would make it a challenge to combine re-upping Springer with adequately addressing their other needs.

Of course, along with Springer, the Astros may wave goodbye to another major offensive piece in outfielder/designated hitter Michael Brantley. The Astros didn’t issue him a QO, but they have had talks on a new deal with Brantley, whom they signed to a two-year, $32MM pact a couple offseasons ago. Brantley should get another reasonable deal in that range this time, though Houston would probably have to trust the 33-year-old as an everyday outfield option if it’s going to bring him back. Brantley spent the majority of the season at DH because knee problems wiped out Yordan Alvarez’s 2020, but Alvarez figures to regain control of that spot next year.

With Josh Reddick also on the open market, the only sure bet for the Astros’ outfield is big-hitting corner option Kyle Tucker. The cupboard is close to bare otherwise. Myles Straw endured a miserable year at the plate, so it would be hard to pencil him in as Springer’s replacement in center. And while Chas McCormick is a farmhand of some note, the 25-year-old is hardly a can’t-miss prospect, and he has no big league track record at all.  So, as is the case with Straw, it’s difficult to envision the Astros handing McCormick a starting job and hoping he can somehow help fill the Springer/Brantley void.

Considering their outfield issues, the Astros are going to have to use free agency and/or the trade market if they lose Springer, Brantley, Reddick or all three. Those players aside, there probably isn’t a better fit in free agency than longtime Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr. Granted, there’s a significant drop-off from Springer to Bradley, but JBJ is still the second-best center fielder available and someone who should be in the Astros’ price range (MLBTR predicts Houston will ink him to a two-year, $16MM).

Joc Pederson and Jurickson Profar are the next highest-ranked outfielders in free agency, though neither would address the Astros’ hole in center. In Pederson’s case, there may still be bad blood stemming from the Dodgers-Astros World Series in 2017, so whether Houston would even have a chance at signing him is unknown. Even someone like Brett Gardner could be difficult to get in the wake of the Yankees-Astros 2017 ALCS and the animosity directed at the team’s sign-stealing scandal.

Beyond those names, there isn’t much to get excited about on the open market. But if Houston spends little in the outfield and settles for the next tier or two, the team will be looking at the likes of ex-Astros Robbie Grossman and Jake Marisnick, Kevin Pillar, Adam Eaton and Michael A. Taylor. Yasiel Puig could be a wild card to keep an eye on after missing all of 2020. The Astros-Dodgers rivalry could be in play with Puig, but he may be desperate enough to sign with anyone who shows interest in him.

Outfield troubles aside, most of the Astros’ position player group looks to be in place for 2021. Gurriel, Alvarez, second baseman Jose Altuve, shortstop Carlos Correa (if the Astros don’t unexpectedly trade him one year before free agency) and third baseman Alex Bregman are still there. Martin Maldonado is the favorite to return as their catcher, but if the Astros are willing to spend for an upgrade, J.T. Realmuto and to a much lesser extent James McCann may be on the table (it seems more likely the team would splurge on Springer than Realmuto, though). Otherwise, the Astros could at least look for an upgrade over reserve Garrett Stubbs. Yadier Molina, Mike Zunino, Tyler Flowers, Alex Avila, Wilson Ramos and former Astro Jason Castro are among the top backup/timeshare types looking for work.

On the pitching side, the Astros’ rotation somehow held its own in 2020 despite almost no contributions from reigning Cy Young winner Justin Verlander, who underwent Tommy John surgery in October. The timing of that procedure means Verlander also won’t help the team in 2021. However, they do still appear to have their one through five locked up with Greinke, Framber Valdez, Lance McCullers Jr., Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy. The Astros could at least pursue some depth signings in case of injury and/or underperformance, but they don’t look like a team that has to fret over its starting staff or pour substantial resources into it this offseason.

The bullpen, on the other hand, could be a different story with Roberto Osuna, Brad Peacock and Chris Devenski on the market. The good news for the Astros is that they were able to adjust to life without them in 2020. Osuna missed almost the whole season with elbow problems, leading the Astros to cut the potential Tommy John patient. Likewise, Peacock and Devenski barely factored in for the club.

Even with the Osuna-Peacock-Devenski departures, the Astros still do have at least a handful of enviable relief arms in Ryan Pressly, Andre Scrubb, Enoli Paredes and Blake Taylor (though Scrubb and Taylor did struggle with walks in 2020). Joe Smith could reenter the fold after sitting out all of 2020, while Austin Pruitt, Brooks Raley, Cionel Perez and Josh James are also among those who could vie for roles.

Although the above names may well comprise most of Houston’s bullpen next year, it won’t be a surprise if the team searches for a reliever(s) who’s more of a sure thing. Luckily for the Astros, free agency is overflowing with veteran relievers who figure to come at fair prices. Even the heads of the class (Liam Hendriks, Brad Hand, Trevor Rosenthal, Blake Treinen and Trevor May) shouldn’t be overly expensive, and there are other credible hurlers in the lower tiers with Alex Colome, Kirby Yates, Jake McGee, Shane Greene, former Astro Mark Melancon and Greg Holland just some of many seeking MLB employment.

While it would behoove the Astros to bring in any relievers along those lines, it’s clear that the outfield is the biggest question Click will have to answer over the next few months. If Click is able to find two good complements to Tucker, it would go a long way in assuring the Astros remain in contention a year from now.

George Springer, J.T. Realmuto Decline Qualifying Offers

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The final qualifying offer decisions are in, as both George Springer of the Astros and J.T. Realmuto of the Phillies have declined their qualifying offers, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). The Astros and Phillies will receive compensatory draft picks if/when they sign with another club. The final tally has four players declining (Springer, Realmuto, DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Bauer) and two accepting their qualifying offer (Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman).

Realmuto, 30 next season, will be the top catcher on the free agent market by a wide margin. His power and athleticism is unmatched behind the plate, and he’s faster than he looks. Realmuto has everything you look for in a catcher, but at 30-years-old, there are still some questions as far as how well he’ll fare in the current climate. Time will tell, but after slashing .273/.333/.492 with 36 home runs over 192 games in his Phillies’ tenure, Realmuto should have no shortage of suitors. The tastemakers here at MLBTR pegged him as 2nd on our list of Top-50 Free Agents in the market, naming the Mets, Reds, Nationals, Yankees, Blue Jays, Phillies, Cardinals, Astros, and Angels as potential suitors.

Springer, 31, has his own bugaboo that makes this foray into the free market an interesting one. There are few holes in his resume, but the part he played in the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal will continue to be a line item on any story involving Springer. Still, with a 153 wRC+ since 2019, the ability to play center or left, and 5.0 rWAR per 650 plate appearances throughout his career, Springer will get some attention this winter.

Besides, not that we believe in this sort of thing anymore, but he’s nails in the postseason. He boasts a playoff triple slash of .269/.349/.546 over an absurd 63 career games with 19 home runs and 38 RBIs. That extrapolates out to 49 HRs and 98 RBIs over 162 games. He’s tied for 4th all-time in playoff home runs and currently ranks 5th in championship win probability added. We temper our expectations when it comes to sustainability in high-leverage situations, but we can still marvel at the success Springer has managed thus far in his career (with the now-usual caveat for his part in the sign-stealing).

The MLBTR soothsayers have Springer third on our Top-50 Free Agents list, with the White Sox, Blue Jays, Phillies, Nationals, Cardinals, and Mets as possible destinations. Even with the rejection of the qualifying offer, a return to Houston cannot be ruled out either.

Astros Have Discussed New Deal With Michael Brantley

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The Astros could lose outfielders George Springer, Michael Brantley and Josh Reddick to free agency this winter, but The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal reports in his latest notes column that the club is “trying to work out a deal” with the 33-year-old Brantley. Interest in a reunion is mutual, Rosenthal adds.

Houston opted not to issue an $18.9MM qualifying offer to Brantley, who just wrapped up a two-year, $32MM contract with the ’Stros. The longtime Indians left fielder was excellent in his new setting, delivering a combined .309/.370/.497 line through 824 plate appearances as an Astro. That excellence continued into the playoffs, where Brantley tallied 138 trips to the plate and slashed .311/.391/.426 over the past two postseasons.

It’s not yet known what type of payroll capacity the Astros have this winter, although owner Jim Crane already showed a willingness to spend when he re-signed first baseman Yuli Gurriel to a one-year, $7MM contract (plus a club option) just prior to the beginning of the Wild Card round of postseason play. That deal was in spite of a generally poor year at the plate for Gurriel, which made it rather surprising, but it certainly had to be viewed as a good omen for Astros players like Brantley who hoped to broker a new arrangement with the team.

Then again, adding Gurriel back at that rate further elevated a reasonably crowded Houston payroll. Between him, Justin Verlander, Zack Greinke, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Ryan Pressly, Joe Smith and Martin Maldonado, the Astros have more than $103MM on the books (after factoring for Greinke’s partial salary deferrals and the money coming over from the D-backs as part of that deal). Houston also still owes arbitration raises to Carlos Correa, Lance McCullers Jr. and Aledmys Diaz. Raises for that trio could bring the Astros north of $122MM before adding pre-arbitration players to round out the roster.

That’s not a daunting number relative to the $200MM+ at which the club opened the 2020 season (prior to prorating), but Crane surely would prefer not to replicate that level of spending in the wake of this year’s lost revenue. That may have been true even under normal circumstances, given that last year’s payroll shattered the previous franchise record of about $160MM. The only times the Astros have ever gone beyond the $125MM mark in payroll were in 2018-20. With needs in the bullpen and perhaps in the rotation, there are other areas that need to be addressed as well.

As Rosenthal points out and as we alluded to in our annual free agent rankings, Brantley’s market is further clouded, to an extent, by uncertainty regarding the universal designated hitter. Brantley will turn 34 years old next May and would  benefit from a club that is able to mix in some regular DH reps. He may not be keen on jumping on a new deal until there’s a definitive yay or nay on an NL DH next year. Even if he ultimately lands with an American League team, the presence of the DH in the National League would still improve his negotiating power as he seeks the best deal possible.

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