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Astros Rumors

Orioles Name Mike Elias General Manager

By Steve Adams | November 16, 2018 at 12:50pm CDT

12:50pm: The Orioles have it official: Elias has been hired and given the title Executive Vice President and General Manager. He’ll be introduced by John and Lou Angelos at a press conference at 11am ET on Monday.

11:45pm: MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that “it is expected that Mejdal would join Elias in Baltimore” if Elias is indeed named general manager.

11:08pm: The Orioles long-running search for a new baseball operations leader could be winding to a close. Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets that “barring a sudden change of heart,” Astros assistant general manager Mike Elias will be named the new general manager in Baltimore. Elias had previously been reported to be among the top candidates in the search.

Elias’ official title with Houston is “Assistant General Manager, Player Acquisition,” wherein he’s headed up the Astros’ scouting operations both domestically and internationally. Prior to holding that role, Elias served as the scouting director, and Houston’s media guide describes him as “a driving force” in the decision to select Carlos Correa with the top pick in the 2012 draft — a decision that surprised many at the time, given that Stanford righty Mark Appel was considered the consensus top player available.

Alex Bregman, Lance McCullers Jr., Kyle Tucker and Forrest Whitley are among the other top names selected during Elias’ run as scouting director, though successive top overall picks of Appel and Brady Aiken in 2013-14 were decidedly less successful. Appel (who re-entered the draft in ’13) is out of baseball, while Aiken went unsigned after some considerable drama surrounding his physical, resulting in Houston receiving the No. 2 overall pick as compensation in 2015 (a fortuitous turn of events in hindsight, as it led to the selection of Bregman).

Elias, 36 in December, broke into business as a scout with the Cardinals back in 2007 and quickly ascended to manage St. Louis’ amateur scouting operations by 2010. The relationship he developed with eventual Astros GM Jeff Luhnow while working with the Cardinals played a role in moving from St. Louis to Houston, where he’s been a part of one of the game’s most data-driven and analytics-focused front offices for the past several seasons. That’ll help him bring a more modern approach to the Baltimore front office, though his history in scouting and certainly allows him to appreciate the need for a diverse approach to player evaluation.

Elias’ background would check numerous boxes for an Orioles organization that former GM Dan Duquette admitted had fallen behind in a number of key areas, including international scouting and analytics. For years, the Orioles almost entirely ignored the Latin American amateur market, and while their international scouting efforts did net them some quality players — Wei-Yin Chen and Koji Uehara come to mind — the apparently ownership-driven directive to forgo the amateur market led to a perennially thin farm system. That’s seemingly changing now that Peter Angelos’ sons, John and Lou, have taken up a greater role in the organization’s leadership, but there’ll still be plenty of work to be done in terms of adding to the international scouting staff and facilities.

As for Baltimore’s R&D / analytics department, the team has already lost director of analytics Sarah Gelles — somewhat coincidentally to the Astros (as first reported by BaltimoreBaseball.com’s Rich Dubroff, on Twitter). That’ll only give Elias more hiring work to do in order to begin to get the department up to par.

As for the Astros, the loss of Elias would be significant. Houston already lost director of research and development Mike Fast, who took a position as a special assistant to Braves general manager Alex Anthopoulos earlier this month. Beyond that, special assistant Sig Mejdal left the organization earlier this month after serving six seasons as one of the Astros’ top analysts. Houston’s coaching staff has also been raided. Bullpen coach Doug White jumped to the Angels as their new pitching coach, while assistant hitting coach Jeff Albert was hired as the Cardinals’ new hitting coach. Meanwhile, hitting coach Dave Hudgens was named the Blue Jays’ new bench coach late last week. Suffice it to say, Houston GM Jeff Luhnow and the remainder of his staff will have ample hiring needs in the coming weeks, while others in the organization could find themselves moving up the ranks with a promotion to fill some of the newly created voids.

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Baltimore Orioles Houston Astros Newsstand Mike Elias

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Latest On Trade Interest In Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto

By Steve Adams | November 16, 2018 at 12:36pm CDT

12:36pm: ESPN’s Buster Olney writes that the Marlins’ asking price on Realmuto is viewed by other clubs as “staggering.” Though Realmuto has less control remaining than he did last offseason, he’s coming off a better year and the asking price on him has actually risen from last winter, per Olney.

9:54am: There are as many as 10 teams showing some degree of trade interest in Marlins catcher J.T. Realmuto, tweets MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro, who also notes that Miami’s lofty asking price isn’t likely to drop anytime soon. The Astros are one of the many teams in the Realmuto market, per MLB.com’s Jon Morosi (Twitter links), but to this point they’ve insisted that either outfielder Kyle Tucker or right-hander Forrest Whitley be at the center of the return. Both players are considered to be among the 10 to 15 best prospects in all of baseball. Morosi adds that the Braves are “actively looking for a catcher,” but the Marlins would prefer not to deal Realmuto within the division.

Miami’s asking price in talks with the Astros somewhat mirrors their previous ask from the division-rival Nationals; Washington has been known to have interest in Realmuto for the past year, but reports have indicated that the starting point in any talks last winter was one of two prized young outfielders: Victor Robles or 2018 Rookie of the Year runner-up Juan Soto. The Nats are reported to be on the lookout for a catcher themselves, but the continued high asking price and Miami’s reported preference to deal him away from the NL East are both working against that outcome. The same can be said of the Mets, who are also in the market for catching help this winter.

The Marlins’ hefty asking price in Realmuto negotiations is perfectly justified, as the 27-year-old has improved with each big league season since debuting in 2014 and is now, arguably, the best all-around catcher in baseball. A lower back injury shelved him for the first month of the 2018 season, but he returned with a flourish, batting .277/.340/.484 with a career-high 21 home runs, 30 doubles and three triples in 531 plate appearances. Realmuto also halted a whopping 38 percent of attempted stolen bases against him.

A trade of Realmuto shouldn’t be considered a foregone conclusion, however. While agent Jeff Berry of CAA Baseball recently made a point to publicly declare that Realmuto won’t sign an extension in Miami and that he expects a trade this winter, it should be noted that Berry and Realmuto requested a trade last winter on multiple occasions — only for Realmuto to remain in Miami. But Realmuto does have only two seasons of club control remaining before he hits free agency, and it’d be perfectly defensible to take the position that his trade value will never be higher than it is this offseason. He’s among the game’s best catchers, if not the premier catcher in MLB, and can be controlled for two seasons at a total rate of less than $20MM. He’s among the most valuable trade chips in all of baseball at present, and any package for him should begin with at least one elite prospect and/or a young big leaguer Miami can control for the next half decade or so.

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Atlanta Braves Houston Astros Miami Marlins New York Mets Washington Nationals Forrest Whitley J.T. Realmuto Kyle Tucker

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Examining Draft Pick Compensation For The 5 Teams That Could Lose Qualified Free Agents

By Tim Dierkes | November 15, 2018 at 1:22pm CDT

Five different teams made qualifying offers to free agents this winter. Six of the seven players turned down the one-year, $17.9MM offer.  Here’s what each of those teams stands to gain in draft pick compensation.

Astros

The Astros made a qualifying offer to Dallas Keuchel.  The Astros were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Therefore, regardless of the size of the contract Keuchel signs, the Astros will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B, which takes place after the second round.

Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks made qualifying offers to Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock.  The D’Backs were a revenue sharing recipient. If Corbin or Pollock signs for a guarantee of $50MM or more, the D’Backs get draft pick compensation after the first round. If one of the players signs for less than $50MM, the Diamondbacks get draft pick compensation after Comp Round B. Corbin is a near-lock to sign for more than $50MM, while Pollock is a borderline case.  Of the six qualified free agents, the $50MM contract size threshold only matters in the cases of Corbin and Pollock.

Dodgers

The Dodgers made a qualifying offer to catcher Yasmani Grandal (Hyun-Jin Ryu already accepted his). Like the Astros, they were neither a revenue sharing recipient nor a competitive balance tax payor. Regardless of the amount Grandal signs for, the Dodgers will receive draft pick compensation after Competitive Balance Round B.

Nationals

The Nationals made a qualifying offer to Bryce Harper, and the Nats were a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, the Nationals will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Harper signs.

Red Sox

The Red Sox made a qualifying offer to Craig Kimbrel, and the Sox were a competitive balance tax payor.  Therefore, the Red Sox will receive draft pick compensation after the fourth round regardless of the size of contract Kimbrel signs.

The Nationals and Red Sox stand to gain fairly unimpressive draft picks, likely somewhere in the 140s.  The Astros and Dodgers should get picks in the 80s.  The D’Backs should get a pick in the 30s for Corbin.  Pollock could land them a pick in the 30s or the 80s depending on whether he gets $50MM.

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Arizona Diamondbacks Boston Red Sox Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers MLBTR Originals Washington Nationals A.J. Pollock Bryce Harper Craig Kimbrel Dallas Keuchel Patrick Corbin Yasmani Grandal

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Six Players Decline Qualifying Offers

By Mark Polishuk | November 12, 2018 at 3:32pm CDT

The seven free agents who were issued qualifying offers by their former teams must decide by 4pm CT today whether or not to accept.  You can get the full rundown of how the qualifying offer system works here, but in brief — if a player takes the offer, they will return to their team on a one-year, $17.9MM contract for the 2019 season and can never again be issued a QO in any future trips to the free agent market.  If a player rejects the offer, their former team will receive a compensatory draft pick should another club sign the player.  (The signing team will also have to give up at least one draft pick and potentially some funds from their international signing bonus pool.)

Most free agents reject the QO in search of a richer, more long-term contract, and this is expected to be the case for most (though not all) of this year’s qualifying offer class.  The MLB Player’s Association has now announced all of these decisions, so they’re all official:

  • A.J. Pollock will enter free agency after turning down the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer, tweets Jon Heyman of Fancred.  He’ll be the top center fielder available and should draw interest from a fair number of teams, though his market demand is not yet clear.
  • Bryce Harper declined the Nationals’ qualifying offer, per Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com (via Twitter). That’s utterly unsurprising, as the superstar is lining up nine-figure offers as we speak.
  • Craig Kimbrel is heading to the market rather than taking the one-year pact to stay with the Red Sox, Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com was among those to tweet. The veteran closer is expected to command a much larger and lengthier contract in free agency.
  • Patrick Corbin won’t be accepting the Diamondbacks’ qualifying offer, as per Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman (Twitter link).  No surprises with this decision, as Corbin is set to receive the biggest contract of any free agent pitcher this winter.
  • Yasmani Grandal won’t accept the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, ESPN’s Alden Gonzalez (via Twitter).  Even in the wake of another mediocre postseason performance, there was little doubt Grandal would turn down the QO, as he projects to earn a strong contract as the best catcher in the free agent market.
  • Dallas Keuchel has rejected the Astros’ qualifying offer, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reports (Twitter link).  The ground-ball specialist and 2015 AL Cy Young Award winner will hit the open market, and it remains to be seen if a return to Houston could be in the cards.  The Astros could also lose Charlie Morton in free agency, and Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of 2019 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • Hyun-Jin Ryu has accepted the Dodgers’ qualifying offer, as we explored in detail earlier today.  Ryu becomes the sixth player to ever accept a QO, out of the 80 free agents who have been offered the deal over the last seven offseasons.
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Arizona Diamondbacks Boston Red Sox Houston Astros Los Angeles Dodgers Newsstand Transactions Washington Nationals A.J. Pollock Bryce Harper Craig Kimbrel Dallas Keuchel Hyun-Jin Ryu Patrick Corbin Yasmani Grandal

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Quick Hits: Castellanos, Astros, deGrom, Riggleman, Free Agents

By Mark Polishuk | November 12, 2018 at 2:18pm CDT

The Astros made an offer to the Tigers for right fielder Nick Castellanos prior to last July’s trade deadline, according to Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter).  Houston was known to be aggressively pursuing a big outfield bat last summer, even to the point of almost completing a trade with the Nationals for Bryce Harper, and also inquiring about Tommy Pham (then with the Cardinals) and White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia.  Fenech suggests that Castellanos could again be a target for the Astros this offseason, and he explores in a longer piece for the Detroit Free Press that it is becoming increasingly likely that the Tigers will trade Castellanos due to a lack of extension talks between the two sides.

Castellanos would help the Astros as either a corner outfielder or, perhaps more likely, as a DH given Castellanos’ defensive limitations and the fact that incumbent Houston designated hitter Evan Gattis is hitting free agency.  Since Castellanos is only controlled through the 2019 season, he would give the Astros a short-term boost in their quest for another World Series while also not serving as a long-term block to youngsters Tyler White, Kyle Tucker, and J.D. Davis.

More from around baseball…

  • Now that Brodie Van Wagenen has gone from being Jacob deGrom’s agent to his employer as the Mets’ new GM, the transition has been “still a little confusing for me, I guess,” deGrom admitted to MLB.com’s Anthony DiComo.  DeGrom (and Van Wagenen’s other clients at CAA) were kept updated throughout Van Wagenen’s negotiations about joining the Mets just so nobody felt caught off-guard by the former agent’s surprising career change, and deGrom said that “I’ve had conversations with him since [the hiring], and they’ve been good.”  There haven’t yet been any talks about a contract extension between deGrom and the Mets, though most teams usually wait until later in the offseason to discuss in-house contracts.  For his part, deGrom reiterated that he enjoys playing for the Mets and would be open to talking about a long-term deal.  “If that was something that they wanted to do, and me and [my wife] Stacey felt like it was the right move for us, then we’d be willing to definitely explore that,” deGrom said.  The ace right-hander is controlled via arbitration through the 2020 season, and it will be particularly interesting to see how extension talks develop, given deGrom and Van Wagenen’s shared history.
  • In other Mets news, Fancred Sports’ Jon Heyman recently tweeted that Jim Riggleman will interview for the team’s open bench coach position sometime this week.  Riggleman served as the Reds’ interim manager for much of the 2018 season, and he would add over three decades of coaching and managerial experience to Mickey Callaway’s staff.  SNY TV’s Andy Martino offers the alternative suggestion that the Mets should consider former Phillies manager Pete Mackanin as bench coach, arguing that Mackanin is more well-versed in how to apply modern analytics to in-game management.
  • Manny Machado is the third-greatest player to ever hit free agency following his age-27 season or sooner, as calculated by The Athletic’s Cliff Corcoran (subscription required) in a 13-player ranking.  Bryce Harper, interestingly, ranks just 11th on the list.  The players were compiled in regards to what they had achieved before hitting the open market, so it’s worth noting that both Machado and Harper (who are both only 26 years old now) had a bit less seasoning than some of the slightly older names on the list.  Alex Rodriguez and Barry Bonds are the only names ahead of Machado on this list dotted with several all-time greats, though as with any free agent, past performance is no guarantee of future performance.  Case in point, the fourth-best player on Corcoran’s ranking is Jason Heyward, who has been a significant disappointment since signing an eight-year, $184MM deal to join the Cubs.
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Detroit Tigers Houston Astros New York Mets Bryce Harper Jacob deGrom Jim Riggleman Manny Machado Nick Castellanos

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AL Notes: Altuve, Merrifield, Brantley, Gray

By Mark Polishuk | November 11, 2018 at 10:26pm CDT

Jose Altuve provided an update on his rehabilitation from knee surgery, telling MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart and other reporters that he’s “not doing a lot” in the early stages of his recovery process, though “the only thing they told me is we’re going to be 120 percent for the first day of Spring Training, and that’s what really matters.”  Altuve underwent the procedure shortly after the Astros were eliminated from the ALCS, after playing through the injury for much of the second half of the season.  More will be known later in Altuve’s rehab process, though for now, it doesn’t seem like the surgery will keep Altuve from being ready to go for next season.

Here’s more from around the American League…

  • Whit Merrifield is arguably the Royals’ biggest trade chip, though the team’s lack of interest in dealing him is indicative of GM Dayton Moore’s unique team-building process, Sam Mellinger of the Kansas City Star writes.  On paper, a player who turns 30 in January doesn’t have much long-term value to a Royals team that has 2021 as its internal start date to once again be competitive.  Moore, however, has spoken openly about how disappointing the 2018 season was for the Royals, and he has been hesitant to enter into a full rebuild.  As Mellinger puts it, “holding onto Merrifield serves several purposes simultaneously: projects hope and confidence to players and fans, helps maintain culture of professionalism in the clubhouse, creates the best possible team for 2019, provides time to see what might be needed in a few years, and retains the ability to trade a presumably still valuable asset next summer or winter.”
  • “There is nearly a zero chance Michael Brantley will return to the” Indians in 2019, Terry Pluto of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes.  A reunion between the two sides seemed pretty unlikely, as Brantley’s strong 2018 season has put him in line for a lucrative free agent contract.  This made him an imperfect fit to return to the Tribe’s outfield, as Cleveland may be exploring ways to cut some veterans from the payroll while still looking to contend again next season.
  • Three evaluators from rival teams shared their thoughts on Sonny Gray with George A. King III of the New York Post, noting that the Yankees right-hander still has some solid trade value despite a rough season in the Bronx.  “I think he [has value] because with the way starting pitching is right now, you look at him as a reclamation project.  There has to be value with what starting pitching has become,” one evaluator for an AL rival said.  Between Gray’s good numbers away from Yankee Stadium, his past track record, youth, and one remaining year of arbitration control (at a $9.1MM salary, as projected by MLBTR’s Matt Swartz), it isn’t surprising that at least five teams have reportedly called the Yankees about Gray’s services.
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Cleveland Guardians Houston Astros Kansas City Royals New York Yankees Jose Altuve Michael Brantley Sonny Gray Whit Merrifield

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AL Notes: Twins, McCullers, Rays, Zunino, Orioles

By Connor Byrne | November 11, 2018 at 1:06pm CDT

Center fielder Byron Buxton and third baseman Miguel Sano were among the Twins’ best performers during their 2017 playoff season, but both players took massive steps backward during the team’s disappointing 2018 campaign. Now, the down seasons the pair endured are affecting the Twins’ offseason plans, Dan Hayes of The Athletic explains (subscription required). Had those two remained strong contributors last season, Minnesota would’ve been more willing to go “full speed ahead” this winter in an attempt to catch the AL Central rival Indians, Hayes writes. Instead, the Twins’ primary focus right now is to help those two bounce back in 2019. If Buxton and Sano do rebound, Twins ownership would give the team’s front office “the green light to take more of an aggressive step forward with this unit of players,” general manager Thad Levine said, adding he and chief baseball officer Derek Falvey “would feel much more emboldened to take that step forward.”

Here’s more from the American League:

  • Even though the Astros’ Lance McCullers Jr. pitched in September and October, the right-hander tells Jake Kaplan of The Athletic (subscription required) that he was aware by then that he needed Tommy John surgery. McCullers revealed that he received the news when he met with surgeon Dr. Neal ElAttrache on Aug. 30, but the 25-year-old – with the blessing of ElAttrache and the Astros – put the procedure on hold until the offseason. While pitching through a partially torn UCL was “painful,” McCullers wasn’t going to make the injury worse by doing it, and he knew he’d miss 2019 no matter what. McCullers ended up going under the knife this past Tuesday, and is aiming for a spring 2020 return. Kaplan’s full piece is worth checking out for more from McCullers.
  • Catcher Mike Zunino, whom the Rays acquired from the Mariners on Thursday, looks like a solid addition from an on-field standpoint. The Rays also place a great deal of value on Zunino as a person, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes, noting he should help fill the veteran leadership void left by free agents Sergio Romo and Carlos Gomez. Indeed, GM Erik Neander said that “[Zunino’s] somebody that we see that could take a leadership role with our group.’’ In terms of what Zunino provides as a defender, Neander offered a rave review, pointing to “how he navigates a staff, how he manages people, what kind of teammate he is, the care factor, the confidence that he is putting down the right fingers.”
  • Unsurprisingly, the Orioles won’t be big players in free agency, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com hears. However, Kubatko relays that they will prioritize adding infielders, likely on short-term deals. Assuming the rebuilding Orioles don’t contend in 2019, they could then try to trade those additions over the summer, Kubatko notes. Of the infield options currently on Baltimore’s 40-man roster (Chris Davis, Tim Beckham, Jonathan Villar, Renato Nunez, Breyvic Valera, Steve Wilkerson and Engelb Vielma), only Villar and Nunez offered passable major league production last season.
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Baltimore Orioles Houston Astros Minnesota Twins Tampa Bay Rays Byron Buxton Lance McCullers Jr. Miguel Sano Mike Zunino

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Astros Interested In James Paxton

By Connor Byrne | November 11, 2018 at 8:53am CDT

The Mariners are set to retool this offseason, leaving few to no untouchables on their roster. Left-hander James Paxton has emerged as arguably their highest-profile trade candidate early this offseason, and he’s drawing interest from an array of teams, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The Astros are part of that group, Rosenthal reports.

As World Series contenders who are seeking starters, the Astros are a logical match for Paxton. Although the club had an elite rotation in 2018, it could lose both Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton to free agency, and it just found out Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Those factors leave aces Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole as the Astros’ only rotation locks at the moment, though it seems they’ll return veteran Collin McHugh to a starting role after he thrived as a reliever last season. But those three are only signed through next season, whereas Paxton’s controllable through 2020.

Even if the Astros do move McHugh back to their rotation next season, they’ll still be short on established starters. Swingman Brad Peacock and a series of youngsters – including Forrest Whitley (perhaps the game’s best pitching prospect) and Josh James – are among their other rotation possibilities.

Notably, Seattle and Houston are in the same division, which in theory could make a trade unlikely. However, if the Mariners don’t see themselves as near-term contenders in the AL West, their mindset should be to take the best possible offer. The Astros may be in position to make the most generous proposal for the 30-year-old Paxton, given that they own one of the majors’ best farm systems. Houston will face plenty of competition, though, including from the AL rival Yankees.

While the flamethrowing Paxton comes with a troubling injury history and has never approached the 200-inning mark in a season, he’s still among the game’s top starters on a per-inning basis. Paxton’s affordable control only adds to his value, as he’s projected to earn a reasonable $9MM in 2019.

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Houston Astros Seattle Mariners James Paxton

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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

By Connor Byrne | November 10, 2018 at 8:43pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here to read the other entries in this series.

The Astros fell just shy of their second straight World Series berth in 2018. Now, with the offseason underway, they’re facing multiple key departures in free agency.

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jose Altuve, 2B: $136.5MM through 2024
  • Justin Verlander, RHP: $28MM through 2019
  • Josh Reddick, OF: $26MM through 2020
  • Yuli Gurriel, INF: $18MM through 2020
  • George Springer, OF: $12MM through 2019
  • Joe Smith, RP: $8MM through 2019
  • Hector Rondon, RP: $4.5MM through 2019

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Gerrit Cole – $13.1MM
  • Roberto Osuna – $6.5MM
  • Collin McHugh – $5.4MM
  • Carlos Correa – $5.1MM
  • Lance McCullers – $4.6MM
  • Will Harris – $3.6MM
  • Ryan Pressly – $3.1MM
  • Brad Peacock – $2.9MM
  • Jake Marisnick – $2.4MM
  • Chris Herrmann – $1.5MM
  • Chris Devenski – $1.4MM
  • Non-tender candidates: Marisnick, Herrmann

Free Agents

  • Dallas Keuchel, Charlie Morton, Marwin Gonzalez, Brian McCann, Evan Gattis, Tony Sipp, Martin Maldonado

[Astros Depth Chart | Astros Payroll Information]

Elite starting pitching was a hallmark of the Astros from 2017-18, but at the outset of the offseason, their rotation has lost quite a bit of luster. The terrific tandem of Dallas Keuchel and Charlie Morton may exit in free agency, while Lance McCullers Jr. will miss all of 2019 after undergoing Tommy John surgery earlier this month. Fortunately for Houston, it still boasts a tremendous one-two punch in ace right-handers Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole. The team’s starting mix is murkier thereafter, though president and general manager Jeff Luhnow suggested when McCullers went under the knife that the Astros would turn back to Collin McHugh as a starter after he worked exclusively out of their bullpen in 2018.

The 31-year-old McHugh was quietly one of the majors’ most effective relievers last season, so deploying him as a starter would obviously weaken Houston’s bullpen. At the same time, it would give the Astros another viable starter, something McHugh served as from 2014-17. He relieved last season because Houston had incredible starting depth, which isn’t quite the case right now. That’s not to say the cupboard is empty after McHugh, though, as the Astros still possess arguably the game’s No. 1 pitching prospect – towering righty Forrest Whitley, 21 – not to mention fellow top-100 prospect Josh James and swingman Brad Peacock. But Whitley seems likely to open 2019 at Triple-A, a level he hasn’t yet reached, and Peacock could stay in a relief role after totaling just one start in 61 appearances last season. James may have the most realistic chance of the three to begin 2019 in the Astros’ rotation, and the 25-year-old flamethrower did stand out late last season in the majors – albeit over just 23 1/3 innings divided between the rotation and bullpen.

Beyond Whitley, James and Peacock, there are a slew of starting options in the minors who either carry limited track records in the majors or no experience at the game’s highest level, as Jake Kaplan of The Athletic recently detailed (subscription required). With that in mind, it seems clear that restocking their rotation will be a priority for the Astros this winter.

There hasn’t been any word on whether the Astros will make an earnest attempt to re-sign Keuchel, a Scott Boras client who’s on a collision course with a substantial payday. On the other hand, Morton has made it known he’d welcome a return to Houston in 2019. Morton’s on the market unfettered after the Astros surprisingly decided against issuing him a one-year, $17.9MM qualifying offer at the beginning of the offseason. It’s fair to surmise Morton’s age (35 next week) and lengthy injury history played a role in that call, and those factors will also tamp down his earning power on the open market. Regardless, Morton was stellar as an Astro over the past two years – including during a 167-inning, 3.13 ERA showing in 2018 – and would be difficult to replace.

With the futures of Keuchel and Morton in question, the Astros figure to be in on some of the top available starting pitchers in the coming weeks – especially considering Verlander, Cole and McHugh are each signed for just one more season. Luhnow swung blockbuster trades in the past to acquire Verlander and Cole, and he may again go that route to bolster his rotation. It helps that the Astros happen to have one of the game’s most impressive farm systems, which could give them a legitimate chance to win a bidding war for the Indians’ Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco or Trevor Bauer (though the latter has had it out with Houston in the past), three front-line starters who each come with two or more years of control. The Indians will at least consider offers on that trio, while another high-caliber arm – James Paxton of the Mariners – may also find himself on the move.

Whether the Mariners would send Paxton to Houston, one of their AL West rivals, is anyone’s guess. The same concerns wouldn’t exist with Zack Greinke, whom the Diamondbacks could part with in a payroll-cutting measure. Even though he’s 35, Greinke remains an outstanding starter. However, he’s owed another $95.5MM through 2021, which not only limits his trade value but could scare off potential suitors (including Houston, though the club could likely afford to take on his contract). More reasonably priced targets may include hard-throwing lefty Robbie Ray, one of Greinke’s Arizona teammates, as well as the Blue Jays’ Marcus Stroman, the Orioles’ Dylan Bundy and the Yankees’ Sonny Gray. Aside from Gray, who’s slated to become a free agent in a year, all of those hurlers come with at least two controllable seasons. And while Stroman, Bundy and Gray struggled in 2018, it’s worth noting each were above average in terms of spin rate, in which the Astros are big believers.

Houston would likely be buying at least somewhat low on Stroman, Bundy or Gray, given the down years they had. Free agent Garrett Richards, another spin rate darling, also stands out as an intriguing buy-low candidate. Having undergone Tommy John surgery last July, Richards probably wouldn’t contribute in 2019. Although, if he inks a two-year deal, he’d be able to help Houston come 2020, when some or all of Verlander, Cole and McHugh could be off the team.

As far as healthy free-agent starters go, perhaps the Astros will explore the top of the market, where Patrick Corbin, Keuchel and Nathan Eovaldi are the headliners. The next tier includes J.A. Happ, Japanese lefty Yusei Kikuchi (if his team posts him), Morton and Hyun-Jin Ryu. It wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Astros come away with any of those starters, barring a trade(s).

A trade may be the Astros’ preferred way to upgrade behind the plate, which seems inevitable. With Brian McCann, Martin Maldonado and DH/onetime catcher Evan Gattis now unsigned, Houston’s down to Max Stassi and recent waiver claim Chris Herrmann as its backstops. Stassi was effective in 2018, especially as a defender, but his offensive production cratered after May. That could help point the Astros back to the Marlins’ J.T. Realmuto, the sport’s premier catcher in 2018. The Astros were in on Realmuto last winter, when they reportedly considered offering coveted young outfielder Kyle Tucker for him, but Miami ultimately retained its franchise player. However, now that Realmuto’s a year closer to free agency and still refuses to sign an extension with the Marlins, a trade’s probably coming sometime soon.

Houston’s certainly a logical fit for Realmuto, though it’ll have some alternatives in free agency if it’s unable to swing a deal with Miami. The leading member of the free-agent group, Yasmani Grandal, has already landed on the Astros’ radar. The 30-year-old Grandal’s the only catcher in the game who was a better pitch framer than Stassi in 2018, and he also brings a track record of quality hitting to the table.

While catcher looks like the Astros’ focus with respect to their position player cast, there are other concerns, including at DH. As excellent as the Astros were from 2017-18, their primary DHs – Carlos Beltran two years ago, Gattis last season – underwhelmed during that span. Sure, Gattis smacked 25 home runs in 2018, but he was a mediocre hitter overall (101 OPS+, 99 wRC+). Meanwhile, even though he was playing his age-38 season, the Mariners’ Nelson Cruz continued to serve as an offensive force. Cruz is now one of the foremost hitters available in free agency, and has drawn the Astros’ interest since the market opened.

Speculatively, the Astros may have other sluggers on their radar, including Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals first baseman/outfielder Jose Martinez, Rays first baseman C.J. Cron and Blue Jays first baseman Justin Smoak. It’s true that Houston already has a starting first baseman in Yuli Gurriel, but he was mediocre in 2018 and may be better served as a utility player. Taking on such a role would enable Gurriel to at least partially replace free-agent Swiss Army knife Marwin Gonzalez, who appears to be on his way to landing a raise outside of Houston.

Gonzalez saw more left field action in 2018 than any other Astro, which could put them in the market for help there if the 21-year-old Tucker’s not ready to assume the reins. If next season began today, Houston would possibly be looking at a Tony Kemp/Jake Marisnick platoon in left. Needless to say, that’s not the most confidence-inspiring duo. If the Astros really want to swing for the fences (no pun intended), they could go after free agent Bryce Harper, whom they nearly acquired from Washington at last summer’s non-waiver trade deadline. On paper, Harper’s projected annual salary ($30MM-plus) would push the Astros’ 2019 payroll to around $165MM – roughly a $5MM boost over last year’s franchise-record Opening Day outlay, and that’s without any improvements at other positions. However, the Astros only have $50MM-plus tied up in their 2020 roster and just $29MM locked in from 2020-24. A Harper pursuit may not be wholly out of the question, then, though the Astros could deem it infeasible with no proven starting pitchers under control past next season and three core players (Bregman, Correa and Springer) possibly due for massive extensions in the coming years.

Should a Harper-Astros union prove to be a flight of fancy, the club could still better its outfield mix in free agency with someone like center fielder A.J. Pollock, who’d enable Springer to move back to a corner on a full-time basis, or a high-profile corner bat such as Michael Brantley or Andrew McCutchen. For the most part, corner outfield trade possibilities don’t look as enticing.

As is the case with every team, the Astros figure to dedicate at least some offseason attention to their bullpen. The unit may lose McHugh to the rotation and lefty Tony Sipp to free agency, after all. Still, with Peacock, Ryan Pressly, Roberto Osuna, Hector Rondon, Will Harris, Chris Devenski and Joe Smith slated to return, the Astros’ relief corps is in enviable shape. If Houston’s bullpen needs anything, it’s a southpaw to complement its septet of accomplished righties. It’s unclear whether the Astros are interested in re-signing Sipp, who bounced back in 2018 after two dreadful seasons. In the event Sipp’s on his way out, Houston may consider fellow free agents Zach Britton, Andrew Miller, Justin Wilson, Oliver Perez and Jerry Blevins to replace him. It’s worth noting the Astros already have connections to four of those players. They unsuccessfully chased Britton and Wilson on the trade market in recent years, traded for Perez in 2015 (it didn’t go well), and made a generous offer to Miller during his previous trip to free agency in 2014.

It’s evident the Astros have an array of plausible paths they could take this winter in order to up their chances of winning a third straight AL West title in 2019 and recapturing World Series glory. Luhnow believes the Astros “have a championship-caliber roster already in place,” but don’t expect him to rest on his laurels in the coming months. With Keuchel, Morton and Gonzalez potentially leaving Houston, inactivity isn’t an option.

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2018-19 Offseason Outlook Houston Astros MLBTR Originals

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Trade Deadline Retrospective: Harper, Astros, Garcia, Nats, Puig

By Ty Bradley | November 10, 2018 at 4:55pm CDT

Baseball fans everywhere were stripped of high-level trade deadline intrigue last season, as Ken Rosenthal details in a stunning report for The Athletic, when a trade that would have sent Bryce Harper to the Astros in exchange for a trio of prospects was nixed by Washington’s ownership group.  The trade, said to have been agreed upon a day before the July 31 deadline, would have sent 2017 first-rounder J.B. Bukauskas to the Nats, as well as two other prospects, one of which was reportedly catcher Garrett Stubbs.  Though Bukauskas faces questions about a third pitch, which could relegate him to eventual relief duty, and Stubbs has cooled after a blistering 2016 performance for Double-A Corpus Christi, the package was surely superior in value to the compensatory pick the Nationals will receive should Harper depart in free agency, which, as Rosenthal notes, will come after the fourth round in next year’s draft, by virtue of the club exceeding the luxury tax total in 2018.  Houston, which received middling corner-outfield production from Josh Reddick and Marwin Gonzalez last season, would certainly have benefitted from Harper’s presence in a lineup diminished by injuries to Carlos Correa and a substandard season from George Springer, though the departing asset cost would’ve assuredly been hefty for only two months of the 25-year-old superstar.

  • Though no official reason was offered for the disapproval, Rosenthal speculates the Nationals owners may have been worried about damaging their relationship with Harper in the offseason to come. The club, after all, did offer Harper a reported $300MM over ten years on the last day of the 2018 season, and figures to further its aggression in efforts to sign the generational talent. During the August waiver period, the club also shot down a Dodger effort to acquire Harper, according to a report from the Los Angeles Times. It appears this offer, which reportedly included outfielder Yasiel Puig at its center, was nixed at the front office level, though it’s certainly plausible that previous ownership mandates were a significant factor in the team’s eventual refusal to depart with the star. Puig, certainly, would have been an intriguing return for just over a month’s use of Harper – the 27-year-old has had his share of on-field dustups, to be sure, but has remained a force at the plate: in an odd reverse split, the polarizing Cuban has put up a 142 wRC+ against right-handed pitching the last two seasons, good for 12th among qualifiers in baseball during that span, and is under team control through the 2019 season.
  • After being stonewalled in their Harper pursuit, sources told Rosenthal that the Astros pivoted their attention (to, obviously, no avail) in the final hours to White Sox outfielder Avisail Garcia, dangling right-handed pitching prospect Francis Martes, whose damaged right elbow was apparently of no concern to the Southsiders.  Garcia, who’s been around replacement-level in five of his six major league seasons thus far, seemed an odd target for an Astro club not much in need of a right-handed boost – the 27-year-old, after all, posted a minuscule 1.4% BB rate in the season’s first half, and again sunk to a level of below-league-average production by the time his season ended in knee surgery in mid-September.
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Houston Astros Washington Nationals Avisail Garcia Bryce Harper Yasiel Puig

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