Mariners Rumors: Encarnacion, Hernandez
After the Mariners acquired designated hitter/first baseman Edwin Encarnacion from the Indians in a three-team trade in December, the retooling M’s informed the slugger they were planning on flipping him elsewhere for prospects, Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times reports. While Enarnacion did generate interest from a few other teams after Seattle acquired him, he’s still a member of the Mariners nearly two months after the fact. The reason? Potential suitors for Encarnacion have faded, Divish relays, making it possible the 36-year-old will at least open the season with the Mariners.
The Rays, Astros and White Sox were reportedly “involved” in talks for Encarnacion in late December. Tampa Bay showed no interest in trading for Encarnacion, however, even if the Mariners ate half of the remaining $25MM guarantee left on his contract, according to Divish. Meanwhile, although the Mariners did shop Encarnacion to division-rival Houston, the Astros appear content with Tyler White and Yuli Gurriel as their top DH/first base options, Divish suggests. As for the White Sox, they don’t look like a clean fit for Encarnacion given the presences of lumbering sluggers Jose Abreu and Yonder Alonso.
With Encarnacion primarily being a DH at this juncture of his career, his market’s limited to the American League, where nobody is champing at the bit to acquire him, per Divish. The Mariners’ best hope of moving Encarnacion before the season may be if a contending team’s DH/first baseman suffers an injury during the spring, then, as Divish observes. Otherwise, it appears the M’s will be left to hope Encarnacion – a once-dominant offensive force who posted a 146 wRC+ and a major league-best 231 home runs from 2012-17 – can rebuild his stock in their uniform leading up to the July and August trade deadlines. Encarnacion did belt 32 homers in 579 PAs last year – his seventh straight campaign with at least 30 HRs – though his .246/.336/.474 line and 115 wRC+ fell flat in comparison to his tremendous output over prior seasons.
Like Encarnacion, right-hander Felix Hernandez is potentially a year from free agency and may be in his last several months as a Mariner. And the M’s have even less hope of finding a taker for the formerly marvelous Hernandez, owing to both his team-high salary ($27.5MM) and the hideous 5.13 ERA/5.12 FIP he registered over 242 1/3 innings from 2017-18. Despite King Felix’s recent struggles, however, “all indications” are that he plans to his career beyond the upcoming season, Divish writes. Regardless, Hernandez will try to return to at least serving as a viable starter this year after an awful showing in 2018, when the M’s briefly relegated the 2010 AL Cy Young winner to their bullpen. Going forward, though, general manager Jerry Dipoto emphasized that the Mariners are planning on using Hernandez solely as a starter.
Orioles, Rangers, Astros Have Recently Scouted Yolbert Sanchez
As of today, 21-year-old Cuban shortstop Yolbert Sanchez is formally cleared to sign with Major League clubs. Sanchez, who recently left Cuba and has since been living and working out in the Dominican Republic, emerged as the most touted talent on the international free-agent market in late January when it was first reported that he’d be cleared to sign on this day.
At present, the Orioles and their near-$6MM signing pool are the runaway leaders in terms of pool money available. The Dodgers’ $1.4MM remaining pool is the next largest, though teams are still allowed to trade international funds between now and the close of the current signing period on June 15.
According to MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez, the Orioles recently sent new general manager Mike Elias and a contingent of evaluators to the Dominican Republic to scout the newly available shortstop. The O’s aren’t the only ones who’ve seen him, however, as the report also indicates that Rangers president of baseball ops Jon Daniels and Astros president of baseball ops Jeff Luhnow were both in the Dominican Republic recently to scout Sanchez in person. Houston can’t offer Sanchez more than $300K until the next signing period begins on July 2, though Texas can trade for additional funds on top of the $850K the organization currently has in its pool.
The point regarding the next signing period is a key distinction, particularly given that Fangraphs’ Eric Longenhagen tweeted today that Sanchez’s camp has told interested teams that one club has already put forth an offer of $2MM if he’s willing to wait until the 2019-20 signing period begins. That could be a negotiation tactic, though it’s common for teams to have verbal agreements with international free agents in place well in advance of the signing period’s commencement, and Sanchez is surely a know commodity to other clubs throughout the league.
Sanchez isn’t necessarily considered an elite prospect, but he’ll turn 22 in March and, as such, could be closer to the Majors than most amateurs available in international free agency. Longenhagen and colleague Kiley McDaniel wrote at the time they reported Sanchez’s impending availability to MLB clubs that his glove, speed and throwing arm all draw above-average to plus ratings from scouts. His offensive upside, however, is not as universally agreed upon.
Sanchez appeared in 128 appeared across parts of three seasons in the Cuban National Series before leaving the island in 2018 and batted a combined .297/.338/.345 through 435 plate appearances. Sanchez homered just once in that span, although the majority of his plate appearances came as a teenager and he struck out at just an 8.7 percent clip.
Carlos Correa Wins Arbitration Case Against Astros
Shortstop Carlos Correa won his arbitration case against the Astros, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman (Twitter link). The GSE client will earn $5MM rather than the $4.25MM figure that the team had submitted.
One of the game’s brightest young stars, Correa picked a poor time for his first misstep in the majors. After turning in monster offensive numbers in an injury-limited 2017 season, the former Rookie of the Year again missed time in 2018 and wasn’t quite himself at the plate. He ended up posting a .239/.323/.405 slash over 468 plate appearances.
So long as Correa can put his back issues behind him, his outlook remains quite bright. He’ll still open his arb earning period with a strong $5MM base rate, though that’s about half of what he might have taken home with a platform season that better matched his prior offensive output. (Fellow youthful star shortstop Francisco Lindor earned $10.55MM after posting his best offensive season in his final pre-arb year.)
This decision is now reflected in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker.
Astros Avoid Arbitration With Chris Devenski
The Astros and reliever Chris Devenski have settled on a $1.525MM salary for the 2019 season, reports Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Per Rosenthal, the deal also includes a club option for $2.625MM in 2020, which can increase to $2.725MM if the righty appears in 50 or more games in 2019. The salary will increase to $2.825MM if he appears in 60 games, and $2.925MM if Devenski, represented by MVP Sports Group, makes 68 appearances.
Devenski had originally asked for $1.65MM in his first arbitration-eligible season, with the club filing at $1.4MM.
The 28-year-old Devenski broke out in 2016, posting an absurdly high (for a reliever) 2.8 fWAR in just 48 appearances. His once-dominant changeup, though, has become far more hittable of late – AL hitters teed off on the righty last season, smashing nine homers in just 47.1 IP and making hard contact nearly 34% of the time. Devenski did continue to strike batters out, whiffing 9.7 men per nine after a career high of 11.6 K/9 in 2017.
He’ll likely fill a long role in a deep Astro bullpen that includes stalwarts Roberto Osuna, Ryan Pressly, Hector Rondon, and Will Harris, with the Houston analytic team surely on the prowl for ways in which the unorthodox righty can keep more balls on the ground.
West Notes & Rumors: Rockies, Arenado, CarGo, Astros, Gattis
Rockies third baseman Nolan Arenado may be the best soon-to-be free agent in baseball, but team owner Dick Monfort has expressed optimism that the four-time All-Star won’t even reach the open market next winter, per Thomas Harding of MLB.com. “I think we’ve gotten it to the point where we’re to the finals,” Monfort said of a potential multiyear contract for Arenado. “We’re to the crescendo.” Arenado and the Rockies have already reached one agreement this offseason, having come to terms on a lucrative, arbitration-avoiding contract for 2019 on Thursday, and that may be a sign the two sides are progressing toward a long-term arrangement. Notably, regarding a potential multiyear pact for Arenado, Monfort declared: “I’m comfortable that we can get a number that we can get to. There are a lot of things that have to go through Nolan’s mind, too. But I’m confident that after we met, Nolan wants this to happen as much as we do.”
- More from Harding, who contradicts a recent report suggesting the Rockies are interested in re-signing free-agent outfielder Carlos Gonzalez. CarGo, 33, was a Rockie from 2009-18, a span in which he was plenty successful, but there’s no indication the club wants him back, Harding hears. Rather, it seems they’re primed to roll with younger options (David Dahl and Raimel Tapia) complementing the veteran tandem of Charlie Blackmon and Ian Desmond in the grass. Colorado also doesn’t seem to have an opening at first base for Gonzalez, Harding notes, as the team has signed Daniel Murphy and Mark Reynolds (the latter only landed a minor league deal, though).
- Slugger Evan Gattis is one of many familiar names remaining in free agency as spring training nears, though it’s possible he’ll return to Houston. Gattis said Saturday, via Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle, that “various people from the Astros organization” have stayed in touch with him this offseason. An Astro from 2015-18, Gattis – an experienced catcher – was almost exclusively a designated hitter last year, but the Astros haven’t addressed the DH position since the campaign concluded. They instead may end up starting Tyler White, who was quietly excellent across 244 plate appearances in 2018. The 32-year-old Gattis, meanwhile, only offered league-average offense and replacement-level value over 451 PAs. As a result, whether from the Astros or another team, he doesn’t figure to rake in a particularly expensive payday in the coming weeks.
Astros Sign Wade Miley
Feb. 1: The Astros have formally announced the signing. Houston’s 40-man roster is now at 39 players.
Jan. 31: The Astros have agreed to a one-year deal with lefty Wade Miley, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). The O’Connell Sports Management client receives a $4.5MM guarantee and can tack on $500K in incentives, Bob Nightengale of USA Today adds (Twitter links).
Miley becomes the latest mid-range starter to settle for a one-year pact after entering the offseason with a case for a multi-season arrangement. He’ll presumably step into the Houston rotation, though his incentives package includes provisions allowing him to earn either for starts or relief appearances, per Ken Davidoff of the New York Post (Twitter link).
This trip through free agency may not have been quite as financially rewarding as Miley might have hoped, but he landed with a clear contender and certainly fared better than he did the last time around. Miley settled for a minors pact last year with the Brewers after a rough two-season run, but turned things around after overcoming some health issues early in the season.
All told, Miley worked to a 2.57 ERA in 80 2/3 frames over 16 starts last year in Milwaukee. He averaged only 5.6 K/9 with 3.0 BB/9, but generated a robust 52.8% groundball rate and allowed only three home runs on the year.
In some regards, Miley was not a substantially different pitcher last year than he had been over the prior seven seasons. His swinging-strike rate sat just a half percentage point above his lifetime 8.6% mark; his average fastball velocity sat right at his career mean of ~92 mph. But that only tells part of the story, as Miley drastically revamped his arsenal in a manner that obviously paid dividends.
In particular, Miley ramped up usage of his cutter, which became his most-used and most-effective pitch, while burying his sinker and slider in favor of enhanced usage of a curve and change. He surrendered much more pull-side contact than before, but with a career-high 2.24 GB/FB rate, the shift-savvy Brewers were able to gobble up quite a few of those well-struck balls. Miley also induced weak contact on 19.5% of the balls put in play against him and ended the season with a career-low .269 BABIP-against.
That last figure — batting average on balls in play — is an interesting one to consider. Any change in Miley’s fortunes in that area, or in the number of balls that leave the yard, could reverse his turnaround. First, though, opposing hitters will have to find a way to solve Miley’s two favorite new offerings; they managed sub-.200 batting averages and sub-.300 slugging percentages against both his cutter and curve last year. Statcast was duly impressed, as it credited Miley with a .300 xwOBA that largely supports the weak .283 wOBA mark he held batters to.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
J.T. Realmuto Talks In “Advanced Stages”
The Marlins’ trade talks centering around J.T. Realmuto have reached “advanced stages,” reports Joe Frisaro of MLB.com, who lists four possible suitors still in the mix: the Padres, Reds, Dodgers and Braves.
While the report seems to advance things from previous levels, it should be pointed out that this isn’t the first time talks have reportedly gained momentum. In fact, that exact terminology (“gaining momentum”) was used last Friday with no deal yet coming to fruition. Earlier this week, the Reds were said to have “made progress” on a Realmuto swap before those reports were walked back, and it’s now been three weeks to the day since the Marlins were first reported to be in “substantive” trade talks regarding Realmuto.
Whatever is going on behind the scenes, it seems clear that there has at times been a concerted effort to convey the idea that talks have been more productive than is the case in actuality. Perhaps that’s the Miami organization trying to pressure other clubs to inch their offers toward the reported sky-high asking price, but with all due respect to those involved, it’s become difficult to determine just how close a deal is to reality. For instance, MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Dodgers aren’t even active in their pursuit at the moment but adds the Rays to the list of current pursuers; Frisaro’s report, in contradictory fashion, says the Rays and Astros look to have largely bowed out of the race while listing the Dodgers as a factor. MLB.com’s Jon Morosi tweeted last night that the Padres are more involved than the Dodgers.
The greatest cause for optimism regarding a terminus in this exhausting saga could be the latest column from The Athletic’s Dennis Lin (subscription required), wherein he writes that there are “signs that [the asking price] has come down in recent days.” The Padres have reportedly sought an extension with Realmuto as a contingency in any trade, though Lin now writes that the organization remains confident it could sell the catcher on its promising future even though the Marlins have denied interested teams a window to negotiate a long-term deal.
Over the past week, the Padres and Reds have been the two teams most strongly linked to Realmuto, with Atlanta, Los Angeles and Tampa Bay oft rumored to be involved to varying extents. The continually conflicting depiction of the extent to which each is (or isn’t) interested makes individual updates perhaps worth taking with a grain of salt. However, the pronounced increase of rumors surrounding Realmuto does seem to lend credence to the notion that the Marlins have upped their efforts to find a palatable deal.
AL West Notes: Astros, Rangers, Athletics
Astros owner Jim Crane said Friday that the team’s still interested in re-signing free agents Dallas Keuchel and Marwin Gonzalez, and president of baseball operations Jeff Luhnow addressed that Saturday. The Astros “would, of course, love” to have those two back, Luhnow admitted, though he declined further comment on their futures. Luhnow did, however, reveal “there is a decent likelihood” the Astros will make another move, perhaps to pick up starting pitching, relief or position player help, and that he wouldn’t hesitate to trade top prospects to improve the Astros’ rotation. “I did it twice already. And I’m prepared to do it again,” said Luhnow, who swung blockbuster trades for right-handers Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole from 2017-18 and whose club has lost fellow starters Keuchel, Charlie Morton and Lance McCullers Jr. since last season ended. The Astros haven’t made any significant trades yet this offseason, though it hasn’t been for lack of effort. They’ve finished second or third in multiple deals, according to Luhnow, who noted, “We’ve tried and we’ll continue to try” (Twitter links via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com and Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle).
The latest on a couple of Houston’s division rivals…
- The Rangers have spent big in the past, and 26-year-old superstars Bryce Harper and Manny Machado remain free agents as February approaches, potentially making either a fit for the club. However, Texas is not in position to make a splash on the open market this winter, general manager Jon Daniels told TR Sullivan of MLB.com and other reporters Saturday. “We are probably a year away from adding cornerstone-type pieces,” Daniels said. “Our plan all along has been to get the staff in place, get this young group in place, develop them, put in our new systems and as we move into the new ballpark, kind of change the focus.” The “young group” Daniels referenced includes Nomar Mazara, Joey Gallo, Rougned Odor and Jose Leclerc, among others, Sullivan reports. While any of those players could be trade chips, it seems the current plan is to keep them around as the Rangers gear up for their move to Globe Life Field in 2020.
- Even after signing Mike Fiers and Marco Estrada in free agency, the Athletics may land another starter before spring training, according to general manager David Forst (via Melissa Lockard of The Athletic; subscription required). The A’s were quite reliant on utilizing the opener strategy in 2018, though Forst suggested both Fiers and Estrada will continue as traditional starters. As of now, those two are projected to join any of Daniel Mengden, Paul Blackburn, Chris Bassitt, Aaron Brooks, Frankie Montas or even high-end prospect Jesus Luzardo in the A’s season-opening rotation, per Forst. Oakland also has several rehabbing hurlers – including the trio of Sean Manaea, Jharel Cotton and A.J. Puk – and they’re all making progress, as Lockard details. When healthy, some of those pitchers might factor into the A’s bullpen, a group that could pick up another left-hander, Forst revealed. The only southpaw reliever on their 40-man roster is Ryan Buchter, who excelled in 2018. Securing further catching depth is on the team’s radar, too, executive vice president Billy Beane stated (via Chris Haft of MLB.com). While the A’s do have a quality catcher prospect in Sean Murphy, who could debut in 2019, their behind-the-plate situation at the major league level is uninspiring. Their only 40-man catchers are Josh Phegley and free-agent signing Chris Herrmann, and those two haven’t done much in the majors.
- Meanwhile, although Athletics outfield prospect and ex-Oklahoma quarterback Kyler Murray declared for the 2019 NFL Draft earlier this month, the A’s expect him to report to camp. “There’s been nothing from their side that suggests otherwise,” Beane said Saturday (via Haft). Murray, the reigning Heisman Trophy winner, may end up as a first-round pick in the NFL, which would seem to make it a long shot that he’d ever suit up for the A’s.
AL Notes: Verlander, Correa, Hahn, ChiSox, Elias, Font
Buzz from around the American League…
- There haven’t been any extension talks between Justin Verlander and the Astros front office, the right-hander told reporters, including MLBcom’s Brian McTaggart (Twitter and video link). “I don’t know what their organizational plans are. It’s something I wouldn’t be opposed to….we’ll see what happens,” Verlander said. It isn’t necessarily surprising to see a lack of negotiations between the two sides at this point, since most teams wait until their offseason business is complete and Spring Training begins before turning focus to extending in-house talent. Still, there is some urgency in Verlander’s case, given that 2019 is his last guaranteed year under contract (he agreed to waive a possible vesting option for 2020 as part of his trade to Houston in August 2017). Verlander is coming off one of his finest seasons, a campaign that saw him finish second in AL Cy Young Award voting after leading the league in both K/BB rate (a career-best 7.84) and strikeouts (290, another career high) while posting a 2.52 ERA over 214 innings. There certainly doesn’t appear to be much evidence that Verlander is slowing down, even though he turns 36 in February.
- There also haven’t been any long-term contract talks between Carlos Correa and the Astros, the shortstop tells the Houston Chronicle’s Chandler Rome. Persistent back problems limited Correa to just 468 plate appearances in 2018 and a .239/.323/.405 slash line, easily the worst of his four MLB seasons. “For me, right now is not the time to talk about [an extension],” Correa said. “Obviously coming off the injury last year and the down year. I’m looking forward to bouncing back this year, be the player I am and we go from there.” The first step is an arbitration hearing between Correa and the Astros on January 31, with Correa submitting a $5MM salary figure for 2019 and the team counting with a $4.25MM offer. This is Correa’s first of three years of arbitration eligibility, so there is still plenty of time for the two sides to eventually work out a longer-term deal once Correa feels he’s coming off a better platform year.
- White Sox GM Rick Hahn said he would “be personally disappointed” if the team didn’t sign Manny Machado or Bryce Harper, though he told MLB.com’s Scott Merkin and other reporters that the mere pursuit of such top-tier stars represents a new stage of the team’s rebuild. “The fact that we are now sitting here in a potential position — or at least in a position where, if we don’t convert, people are going to be disappointed — I think is an important step forward for this organization,” Hahn said.
- The Orioles aren’t likely to sign any free agents to multi-year contracts this winter, GM Mike Elias told Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com and other media, and the team could avoid any Major League contracts whatsoever for free agents. With the O’s in the early stages of a rebuild, the team wasn’t much of a candidate to be making any long-term commitments, as the focus will instead be on giving time to young players. That said, Elias didn’t close the door on any possibilities for his club, noting “we’re looking for ways to be opportunistic and true with the players that are left unsigned right now.”
- Rays right-hander Wilmer Font has recently started to throw fastball-only bullpen sessions and expects to be ready for Spring Training, he tells MLB.com’s Juan Toribio. Font suffered a lat strain in late June that wound up being a season-ending injury, rather than an eight-week DL stint as originally projected. The injury brought an abrupt end to a very promising start for Font as a Ray, since the righty had a 1.67 ERA over his first 27 innings for Tampa after the club acquired him from Oakland in May. A healthy Font would give the Rays yet another intriguing pitching weapon, able of a traditional bullpen role or perhaps again working as an “opener.”
Astros Owner Jim Crane On Keuchel, Marwin, Free Agency
Astros owner Jim Crane gave some interesting comments today regarding his organization’s remaining plans for the winter and the state of the market at large, as MLB.com’s Alyson Footer of MLB.com reports on Twitter. It’s tough to tell the degree of interest, but Crane certainly seemed to indicate that the organization has some realistic inclination to bring back one or more of its recent players who remain available on the open market.
“We’ve got a couple guys that were here last year that are a possibility to be back here [this] year,” said Crane. “We hope that happens.” He went on to specifically cite southpaw Dallas Keuchel and utilityman Marwin Gonzalez, both of whom are among the most-accomplished players who have yet to find new teams. Calling both Keuchel and Gonzalez “great players and great for the franchise,” Crane suggested there was at least a chance still of a reunion. “Maybe something will work out there,” he said, “who knows?”
It’s certainly arguable that both of those outgoing free agents still make sense on the roster. Between Keuchel and Charlie Morton, the Astros saw a lot of innings walk out the door. While there are options on hand to fill them, pursuit of another starter has long seemed sensible. It’s a bit of a tougher match with Gonzalez, particularly now that the Houston front office has acquired a potential replacement piece in Aledmys Diaz, but perhaps he’d still be of interest at the right price.
The club also bid adieu to several other veterans this winter, a few of whom have already signed elsewhere (including Morton). Backstop Martin Maldonado, southpaw reliever Tony Sipp, and DH Evan Gattis, however, all remain available after wrapping up their contracts with the ‘Stros. Among them, Sipp seems to represent the most sensible roster fit, though there’s no reason to think at this point that he’s a particular target.
However things shake out on Keuchel and Gonzalez, Crane’s comments didn’t admit of much of an opening for the team to pursue free agent market’s two biggest stars — or much of an appetite for any true blockbuster contracts in the future. Stating that the market is “a little bottled up” due to the ongoing presence of Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, Crane went on to offer some revealing thoughts on the state of the hot stove economy and his own organization’s theoretical leanings.
“I think that teams are very focused on value,” said Crane of the business-wide approach to free agency. “I don’t know that you’ll see many more ten-year deals in this business anymore because the analytics are so good and a lot of those deals never work.”
The notion of value as an overriding concern — increasingly treated as something of an actuarial assessment of risk — is hardly a novel concept. But it’s interesting to see an owner not only come forward with that viewpoint, but to characterize it as an industry-wide phenomenon and acknowledge a particular practical ramification of such an approach.
Beyond those somewhat eyebrow-raising aspects of Crane’s comment, it’s also an interesting point to consider. It’s certainly possible to imagine decade-long deals that make sense, particularly for especially youthful players, even if it’s to be expected that the bulk of the on-field performance contributions will be reaped in such a contract’s earlier seasons. Beyond that, nobody really needed analytics to tell them of the concerns with guaranteeing so much money for so many years to one necessarily aging, potentially injured player. After all, the teams that have done so in the past did not tack on years and dollars because they preferred to; they simply did what it took to get the player in an open bidding situation.
Such elite players remain highly prized, of course, but the still-deepening analytical revolution — which has both recognized and helped usher in an influx of cheaply-acquired, increasingly well-prepared, league-minimum-earning players along with a youthened aging curve — has pointed to cheaper ways to maximize roster output while highlighting the financial risks of clogging future payrolls. The resulting reductions in demand have made it increasingly difficult for free agents to squeeze extra guaranteed seasons from clubs.
It’ll be interesting to see how things transpire this winter, with a pair of obvious candidates for extremely lengthy deals still waiting to sign them. While the Astros evidently will not be dabbling in such corners of the market, they’ll still be working to improve the roster in other ways — perhaps even by looking at the second tier of remaining free agents, which includes Keuchel, Gonzales, and others. “Every day we’re looking at opportunities,” says Crane.