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AL Notes: Cora, Tigers, Astros

By Kyle Downing | November 5, 2017 at 10:56pm CDT

There are many reasons that Alex Cora is the right man to manage the Red Sox. As Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald points out, the fact that he’s Latino only adds to that list. Cora is the 47th manager in the history of the Red Sox franchise, and, up until now, every single one of them had been white. The former middle infielder will be involved with a front office that is mostly white while managing a team on the field that has often been predominantly black and hispanic. Red Sox CEO Sam Kennedy has stressed that Cora’s minority status is “a bonus rather than impetus”, but regardless, it looks great for a franchise that took 12 years longer to integrate their roster than the first MLB team to do so. Interestingly, Silverman notes that in 2017, 43 percent of major league baseball players were players of color, while only three of 30 managers were non-white.

More from around the AL…

  • While Tigers are unlikely to make any significant additions to their major league roster this winter, Evan Woodbery of mlive.com says that the organization will be very active on the minor league free agent market. Detroit will focus on making moves to bolster their depth at Triple-A Toledo and will hope to “find a diamond in the rough or lightning in the bottle”, according to GM Al Avila. Woodbery lists 23 players in the Tigers’ system who are eligible to become minor league free agents, and while many of those will probably re-sign with the organization, it seems likely there will be some shuffling of their Double- and Triple-A rosters this winter.
  • Three and a half years ago, an article appeared in Sports Illustrated with a prediction that the Astros would win the 2017 World Series. This past Thursday, Ben Reiter of Sports Illustrated explains why he’s predicting a repeat for the Astros in 2018. Although only two teams have been able to win back-to-back championships since the 70’s, Reiter cites a powerhouse offense that will only lose Cameron Maybin and Carlos Beltran as a big reason the Astros can accomplish the feat next year. He also points out that more young reinforcements are on the way in five-tool left-handed outfielder Kyle Tucker and towering right-handed pitcher Forrest Whitley. While Reiter cites the bullpen as an area of need, he concludes that the Astros are “unusually well-positioned to hang onto the crown”.
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Boston Red Sox Detroit Tigers Houston Astros Alex Cora

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Revisiting Astros' Charlie Morton Signing

By Connor Byrne | November 5, 2017 at 4:16pm CDT

  • The Astros made one of the savviest signings of last offseason when they inked right-hander Charlie Morton to a two-year, $14MM contract, but they may have been able to land him for less, per ESPN’s Buster Olney. When discussing the Astros’ offer with his agent, Morton inferred that their proposal was worth a total of $7MM – an amount he was “thrilled with,” Olney writes. Morton was “astounded” to find that the Astros were willing to give him twice that figure, and he jumped at the chance to sign with the club. A year later, the Astros are World Series champions, thanks in no small part to Morton’s contributions.
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Houston Astros Miami Marlins St. Louis Cardinals Tampa Bay Rays Charlie Morton Wei-Yin Chen

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Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

By Connor Byrne | November 4, 2017 at 9:17pm CDT

MLBTR is publishing Offseason Outlooks for all 30 teams.  Click here for the other entries in this series.

MLB: World Series-Houston Astros at Los Angeles Dodgers

On the heels of their seven-game World Series triumph over the Dodgers, the Astros have finally entered an offseason with the rest of Major League Baseball aspiring to surpass them. It took until the 55th year of the franchise’s existence to win a championship, but the team and its fans might not have to wait much longer to celebrate another title.

Thanks largely to general manager Jeff Luhnow, whom Houston hired in December 2011 and who executed an arduous rebuilding effort to perfection, the Astros have the makings of a club that will contend for more World Series in the near future. And while professional sports teams that win titles often see key players defect in free agency in the ensuing offseason, the Astros are in the luxurious position of having all of their top contributors under control for at least another year. Luhnow won’t face much pressure to make improvements this winter, then, but he’ll nonetheless look to upgrade a roster that finished the regular season with the American’s League’s second-best record (101-61) and third-ranked run differential (plus-196).

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Justin Verlander, SP: $40MM through 2019
  • Josh Reddick, OF: $39MM through 2020
  • Yuli Gurriel, 1B: $30MM through 2020
  • Brian McCann, C: $11.5MM through 2018 (club option for 2019)
  • Charlie Morton, SP: $7MM through 2018
  • Tony Sipp, RP: $6MM through 2018
  • Will Harris, RP: $2.8MM through 2018 (club option for 2019)
  • Jon Singleton, 1B: $2MM through 2018 (club option for 2019)

Contract Options

  • Jose Altuve, 2B: Exercised $6MM club option
  • Marwin Gonzalez, UTIL: Exercised $5.125MM club option

Arbitration-Eligible Players (service time in parentheses; projections via MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

  • Dallas Keuchel (5.089) – $12.6MM
  • Evan Gattis (5.000) – $6.6MM
  • Mike Fiers (4.085) – $5.7MM
  • Collin McHugh (4.085) – $4.8MM
  • George Springer (3.166) – $8.9MM
  • Brad Peacock (3.165) – $2.9MM
  • Jake Marisnick (3.145) – $2.0MM
  • Ken Giles (3.113) – $5.0MM
  • Lance McCullers (2.140) – $2.6MM
  • Non-tender candidate: Fiers

Free Agents

  • Carlos Beltran, Tyler Clippard, Luke Gregerson, Francisco Liriano, Cameron Maybin

[Astros Depth Chart; Astros Payroll Information]

As you’d expect, not much went haywire for the Astros during a successful postseason run that saw them upend the Red Sox, Yankees and Dodgers. One glaring exception was their bullpen, whose struggles forced manager A.J. Hinch into some unconventional maneuverings this fall. Ken Giles, Chris Devenski and Joe Musgrove offered elite-caliber production across a combined 172 1/3 innings during the regular campaign, but they were anything but reliable in the postseason. As a result, Hinch turned to three members of his regular-season rotation – Lance McCullers, Brad Peacock (who functioned solely as a reliever in the playoffs) and Charlie Morton – for multi-inning, win-preserving appearances during the Astros’ series against the Yankees and Dodgers.

Although Giles was one of baseball’s premier closers in 2017, he was dreadful on the sport’s biggest stage, and his Game 4 blowup against LA went down as the last time he took the mound this year. While Giles’ track record indicates he should remain the club’s closer in 2018, it’s worth noting that the Astros zeroed in on a couple other established late-game options – the Orioles’ Zach Britton and then-Tiger Justin Wilson – in advance of this past summer’s trade deadline. The fact that Houston tried to significantly fortify its bullpen even before Giles’ issues cropped up suggests its relief corps may be an area of focus this offseason. MLBTR colleagues Tim Dierkes, Steve Adams, Jeff Todd and Jason Martinez expect that to be the case, evidenced by their prediction that the Astros will sign free agent closer Wade Davis to a four-year, $60MM contract.

Davis is one of many proven relievers the Astros might go after in free agency (Greg Holland and Addison Reed are other high-end possibilities), or they could subtract from their rich farm system to make a splash on the trade market by landing someone like Britton (he’s likely to stay put, however), Brad Hand (Padres) or Raisel Iglesias (Reds). Britton, Hand or a free agent such as Jake McGee or Mike Minor would give the Astros a southpaw reliever who’s capable of handling both lefty- and righty-swingers, which is something they currently lack. The Astros’ lone left-handed reliever is Tony Sipp, who has been a bust during his two-year tenure with the club and wasn’t even on its playoff roster. The only lefty in the Astros’ bullpen during the postseason was longtime starter Francisco Liriano, a July trade pickup who made five playoff appearances and is now headed for free agency.

Luke Gregerson and late-season addition Tyler Clippard are the other two 2017 Astros relievers without contracts. Gregerson was third among Astros bullpen options in innings in 2017 (61), but his regular-season output was uncharacteristically mediocre and he was barely a factor in the playoffs (3 2/3 frames). Clippard, meanwhile, failed to pitch his way into Houston’s postseason plans after coming over in an August deal with the White Sox.

Liriano, Gregerson and Clippard may be on the way out, but the Astros still have Giles, Devenski, Musgrove, Will Harris, James Hoyt and Sipp (barring a release or trade) as locks or strong bets for their bullpen next year. Like most of those hurlers, Michael Feliz and Francis Martes had substantial relief roles in 2017. Feliz was somewhat of a disappointment, though, and Martes figures to open 2018 in Triple-A Fresno’s rotation.

Given his experience as a reliever, Peacock may return to the bullpen if the Astros don’t trade Collin McHugh, who has worked exclusively as a starter during his four-year tenure with the club and may slot in behind Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, McCullers and Morton at the outset of next season. Alternatively, the Astros could shift Peacock to the bullpen, trade McHugh, jettison Mike Fiers and use a large portion of their available payroll space on one of the two front-end starters on the open market. Yu Darvish, whom the Astros tormented in the World Series, and Jake Arrieta will easily collect the largest deals among starters this year. The Astros don’t need either of those two, though the idea of adding one of them to an already strong rotation is enticing. Plus, as good as Houston’s starters look on paper, Keuchel, McCullers and Morton have each had their share of injury issues during their careers, and Morton is only under contract for another season.

No matter which pitchers comprise the Astros’ staff in 2018, their hurlers will again have the benefit of working with a group of all-world position players. The foundational trio of AL MVP front-runner Jose Altuve, World Series MVP George Springer and Carlos Correa will be back, as will a supporting cast that consists of budding star Alex Bregman, Yuli Gurriel, Josh Reddick, Marwin Gonzalez, Brian McCann and Evan Gattis. That group of nine did nearly all of the damage for an Astros offense that laid waste to the opposition in 2017, topping the majors in position player fWAR (33.0), runs (896), wRC+ (121) and strikeout rate (17.3 percent).

The sole regular who was a weak link for the Astros was potential Hall of Famer Carlos Beltran, who was among the worst designated hitters in the league during a season in which he raked in a pricey $16MM. While Beltran didn’t live up to his deal from a statistical standpoint, Astros management, coaches and players would likely argue that the revered 40-year-old justified the pact behind the scenes. Either way, the impending free agent’s second tenure with the Astros is probably over. As such, finding a new DH figures to be on the agenda for the Astros, whose free agent targets could include two-way Japanese sensation Shohei Otani (who would also beef up Houston’s rotation), Carlos Santana, Jay Bruce, Logan Morrison, Carlos Gonzalez and Lucas Duda, to name several. Any of those six would add a lefty-capable bat to a lineup whose only left-handed regulars are Reddick, McCann and the switch-hitting Gonzalez. Santana, in particular, would give the Astros yet another hard-to-strike out offensive weapon.

As for Marwin Gonzalez, it’s unclear whether he’ll be the Astros’ regular left fielder, which he was in the playoffs, or revert to a super-utility role next year. It’s also up in the air just what Houston will get from Gonzalez, whose .303/.377/.530 line in 515 regular-season PAs may not be a harbinger of what’s to come. According to Statcast (via Baseball Savant), Gonzalez’s actual weighted on-base average (.387) far outdid his expected wOBA (.320), which suggests that his career season was largely the product of good batted-ball fortune. If the Astros agree with that, and if they allow August acquisition Cameron Maybin to leave in free agency, it could put them in the market for outfield help (though free agency won’t offer many clear solutions).

If Luhnow is in an especially bold mood, he could try to swing a trade for on-the-block Marlins right fielder Giancarlo Stanton, who would make the Astros’ offense all the more video game-like. Granted, the $295MM remaining on Stanton’s contract through 2028 – not to mention his right to opt out of the deal after 2020 – may render that idea wholly unrealistic. Teammates Marcell Ozuna and Christian Yelich would be more pragmatic possibilities for the Astros, but the Marlins reportedly aren’t looking to part with either. The Pirates’ Andrew McCutchen, with a year and $14.5MM left on his contract, seems like a more practical target. The 31-year-old would be a solid stopgap for a Houston club with two touted young outfielders, Kyle Tucker and Derek Fisher, waiting in the wings.

After constructing a championship-winning roster in 2017, Luhnow could make any number of headline-grabbing transactions this offseason to better the Astros’ chances of repeating next year. However, considering the overwhelming amount of talent in the fold and the paucity of integral free agents set to leave Houston, no one would blame Luhnow for taking a modest approach this winter. In the end, his most important moves may come in the form of extensions for core players such as Altuve, Springer and Keuchel, who each have three or fewer years of team control remaining.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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2017-18 Offseason Outlook Houston Astros MLBTR Originals

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Astros Notes: Keuchel, Springer, Correa, Altuve

By Mark Polishuk | November 4, 2017 at 12:19pm CDT

The Astros’ enviable core of talent has already delivered one World Series title and set them up as contenders through at least next season.  The big-picture question facing Houston, however, will be which members of the roster are kept over the long term.  Here are some notes from FanRag Sports’ Jon Heyman on the state of any Astros contract extensions…

  • Dallas Keuchel is currently in the process of switching his representation.  The ace southpaw has one final year of arbitration eligibility (MLBTR projects him to earn $12.6MM) before hitting the open market as part of the star-studded 2018-19 free agent class.  The agency change “and timing could suggest he’s thinking about change,” Heyman writes, though Keuchel has been willing to discuss an extension with the Astros in the past.  Previous talks didn’t result in a long-term deal, however — Heyman notes that one of the team’s initial offers was similar to the early-career extensions signed by Madison Bumgarner and Chris Sale.
  • There haven’t been any extension talks with George Springer in “at least a year and a half.”  Houston also made an early-career extension offer to Springer, and then a significantly larger offer around two years ago.  Springer is in line for extra money as a Super Two player, as he earned $3.9MM in 2017 and is projected for a big raise up to $8.9MM in 2018.  Since the Astros have Springer under team control through the 2020 season, there isn’t any immediate need for an extension, unless the Astros want cost-certainty over his arb years or want to establish Springer as a long-term cornerstone player into the next decade.
  • Some interesting details are provided on Jose Altuve’s representation history, as the second baseman initially parted ways with Scott Boras in 2013 when Boras advised Altuve against signing an extension with the Astros.  Altuve went on to indeed sign that extension in July 2013, and Altuve’s subsequent rise to superstar status made that four-year, $12.5MM deal with two club option years into a major bargain.  (Houston exercised the first of those club options for 2018, netting Altuve another $6MM in guaranteed money.)  Altuve re-hired Boras as his agent in July 2016, which Heyman writes “could be taken as an indication he has a different mindset now that he has the security” of that initial contract.  Boras clients generally end up reaching free agency, though there have been enough high-profile exceptions to that trend (i.e. Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Gonzalez) that there is still hope at a longer-term deal to keep Altuve in Houston.
  • Carlos Correa seems perfectly willing to go year-to-year until he hits free agency.  The shortstop said last spring that he was at least willing to listen about a long-term deal but only until he hit his arbitration years; Greg Genske, Correa’s agent, made the bolder statement that Correa had no interest at all in an early-career extension.  Last April, MLBTR’s Charlie Wilmoth explored the many forms a Correa extension could take, if the two sides did happen to come to an agreement.  Correa will become eligible for arbitration next offseason, so the team has one more year to work out a multi-year deal, assuming Correa’s previously-stated deadline still holds.
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Houston Astros Carlos Correa Dallas Keuchel George Springer Jose Altuve

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Astros Exercise Club Options On Jose Altuve, Marwin Gonzalez

By Steve Adams | November 3, 2017 at 11:31am CDT

In perhaps the least-surprising decision of the offseason, Astros general manager Jeff Luhnow tells reporters that the team will indeed exercise its 2018 club options over Jose Altuve and Marwin Gonzalez (Twitter link via the Houston Chronicle’s Jake Kaplan). Altuve will earn $6MM next year, and Gonzalez will take home a $5.125MM salary.

Jose Altuve and Marwin Gonzalez | Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Altuve, of course, is one of the front-runners for American League MVP honors on the heels of a season in which he batted a ridiculous .346/.410/.547 with 24 homers and 32 stolen bases.

The 27-year-old superstar won his second consecutive American League batting championship and his third in the past four seasons. All told, he was a roughly eight-win player by both Fangraphs’ and Baseball-Reference’s version of Wins Above Replacement. In all likelihood, the American League Most Valuable Player Award will come down to a two-horse race between Altuve and Aaron Judge.

He’s led the American League in hits for the past four seasons, topping 200 total knocks in each of those years. Houston holds one more option over Altuve’s services for the 2019 season — yet another bargain at $6.5MM — before the five-time All-Star will be eligible for free agency in the 2019-20 offseason.

Gonzalez, 29 next March, had one of the most impressive and unexpected breakouts of any player in Major League Baseball. After hitting .268/.309/.413 in nearly 1200 plate appearances from 2014-16, the switch-hitting utility man erupted with a .303/.377/.530 batting line in 515 plate appearances. Gonzalez’s 23 homers and 34 doubles shattered his previous career-highs of 13 and 26, respectively. The former Rule 5 pick more than doubled his walk rate and also cut his strikeout rate by nearly four percent when compared to the preceding season.

Beyond his excellence at the plate, Gonzalez saw at least 130 innings at all four infield positions, including 281 at shortstop. He also played 331 innings in left field during the regular season before serving as the team’s primary left fielder in the playoffs. Gonzalez will be a free agent following the 2018 season.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Houston Astros Transactions Jose Altuve Marwin Gonzalez

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Astros To Name Joe Espada Bench Coach

By Steve Adams | November 3, 2017 at 8:22am CDT

  • The Astros will hire Yankees third base coach Joe Espada as their new bench coach, reports ESPN’s Marly Rivera. Espada will step into the role that was vacated when Alex Cora left the Astros to become the new manager of the Red Sox. Like Cora, the 42-year-old Espada will bring a relatively youthful presence to the Houston coaching staff. He’s spent seven seasons as a third base coach at the big league level (2010-13 in Miami, 2015-17 in New York) and has also served as a professional scout in the Yankees organization for a year. He’s also served as a minor league hitting coach and infield coordinator in the Marlins organization.
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Boston Red Sox Detroit Tigers Houston Astros New York Mets New York Yankees Pittsburgh Pirates Dave Clark Joe Espada Lloyd McClendon Ramon Santiago Ron Roenicke Ruben Amaro Jr. Steve Liddle

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Giants To Name Alonzo Powell Hitting Coach

By Steve Adams | November 2, 2017 at 8:51am CDT

The Giants are set to hire Astr0s assistant hitting coach Alonzo Powell as their new hitting coach, reports Evan Drellich of CSN New England (via Twitter). Powell will step into the role that was vacated amid last week’s shuffle of the coaching staff in San Francisco. He’ll take over for Hensley Meulens, who shifted to the team’s bench coach role. Longtime bench coach Ron Wotus was moved to the role of third base coach.

Powell will join the Giants organization after helping guide the Astros offense that was far and away the most potent in Major League Baseball. Houston led all of baseball with 896 runs scored, was tied for an MLB-best .282 batting average, and also paced the Majors with a .346 on-base percentage and a .478 slugging percentage. Their 238 home runs trailed only the Yankees for the MLB lead.

The 52-year-old Powell has been Houston’s assistant hitting coach since the 2015 season and previously held that same role with the Padres from 2012-15. He served as the Mariners’ hitting coach on an interim basis for part of the 2010 season as well and has been coaching and managing at the minor league level dating back to 2002.

The job with the Giants will serve as a homecoming for Powell — a San Francisco native whose professional playing career began in the Giants organization back in 1983. He reached the Majors in both the 1987 and 1991 seasons, but Powell’s greatest success as a player came in 1992-97, when he starred for the Chunichi Dragons of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball. In parts of seven NPB seasons, Powell raked at a .313/.371/.510 clip.

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Houston Astros San Francisco Giants Alonzo Powell

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Joe Espada Candidate For Astros' Bench Coach

By Connor Byrne | October 29, 2017 at 4:50pm CDT

  • Yankees third base coach Joe Espada interviewed for the same position with the Red Sox and the bench coach job with the Astros, according to George A. King III of the New York Post. King first reported the interviews Saturday, but it was unclear then which roles Espada discussed with those teams. Espada’s contract with the Yankees is set to expire Tuesday.
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Boston Red Sox Houston Astros New York Yankees Washington Nationals Joe Espada Joe Girardi

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World Series Notes: Morton, Morrow, Gurriel

By Kyle Downing | October 28, 2017 at 10:53pm CDT

It was only a few years ago that Astros right-hander Charlie Morton was a ground ball specialist in Pittsburgh, benefitting largely from an increase in shifts that was revolutionary at the time. Fast-forward to the present, and Morton is suddenly one of the hardest-throwing starters in the American League and mixes in his hammer curve to rack up the K’s. Travis Sawchik of Fangraphs leads us through the fascinating process in which Morton used PITCHf/x data to better understand his actual performance, figure out what he’s in control of, and use it to improve his results. After picking up close to 3MPH on his average fastball, Morton learned to trust his mechanics and began to throw his four-seamer up in the zone more often. Sawchik uses a great combination of quotes and charts to tell the story of how Morton managed a breakout age 33 season and was trusted with the ball in Game 4 of the World Series tonight. We highly recommend giving the piece a thorough read.

A few other items from the 2017 World Series…

  • Anthony Slater of The Athletic (subscription required and recommended) tells the story of Brandon Morrow, a reliever-turned-starter-turned-reliever-again from Rohnert Park, California. The fifth-overall pick in the 2006 draft was the second player in his draft class to debut in the majors (after 2016 ALCS MVP Andrew Miller), but seemed to be a relative letdown compared to some of the superstars drafted around him. His career nearly came to an end due to surgeries, but the Dodgers took a chance on him last offseason, signing him to a minor-league contract that included a spring training invite. 45 stellar regular-season appearances later, Morrow had earned a spot at the back of the Dodgers’ bullpen, thanks in part to a career-high 97.8 average fastball velocity that propelled him to a 10.31 K/9 mark and a 1.55 FIP. The 33-year-old will reach free agency after the World Series is over, and should be in line for a respectable payday.
  • Dylan Hernandez of the LA Times adds his own perspective to the Yuli Gurriel incident in which the Astros first baseman used a racial slur in reference to Darvish in Game 3. Interestingly, Hernandez (who was born to a Japanese mother) seems to suggest that perhaps the incident shouldn’t be viewed through an American lens, through which it potentially carries more weight than it would in Latin culture due to the events in US history over the past century. This doesn’t make it okay, Hernandez makes sure to mention, and the majority of people will agree that Gurriel’s behavior was offensive and insensitive. Hopefully the Cuban infielder has learned from the experience and will not repeat this mistake in the future.
  • Mike Oz of Yahoo Sports got a chance to speak with 7-year-old Hailey Dawson, the girl with a 3-D printed hand who threw out the first pitch in Game 4. While many readers may already know her story, the conversation between Dawson and Oz is well worth a read; the quotes and Oz’s descriptions really capture the emotion and excitement of a little girl who just two months ago got her prosthetic hand and dreams of throwing out a first pitch in all 30 ballparks.
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Astros Interview Joe Espada

By Connor Byrne | October 28, 2017 at 4:57pm CDT

  • The manager-less Yankees sent an email to the majors’ other 29 teams Friday granting them permission to contact any of their coaches who served under Joe Girardi, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports (Twitter link). So far, third base coach Joe Espada has interviewed with the Astros and Red Sox for openings on their staffs, per George A. King III of the New York Post (on Twitter). While King didn’t specify which position(s) Espada spoke those clubs about, the scribe reported earlier this week that he’s a candidate to be the next bench coach for either team.
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