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Brown: Astros Not In Market For Additional Starting Pitching

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March 5: Even following today’s announcement that Verlander will open the season on the injured list, Brown doubled down on his comments downplaying a potential rotation addition (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). Brown again stated that his club isn’t in the market for starting pitching at this time, pointing France as the likely fifth starter behind Valdez, Javier, Brown and Urquidy. Blanco and prospect Spencer Arrighetti were also listed by Brown as depth options.

March 3: The Astros made a major splash at the back of their bullpen by signing relief ace Josh Hader to a five-year deal back in January, fortifying a late-inning mix that already included veteran closer Ryan Pressly and flamethrowing youngster Bryan Abreu. In the run-up to Spring Training, however, Houston GM Dana Brown indicated that the club hoped to make further additions to the pitching side of its roster before Opening Day, either by adding a reliever to the club’s bullpen mix or perhaps by adding another starter to allow other potential rotation arms to work in relief. That no longer appears to be the plan, as the GM downplayed the likelihood of such an addition coming to fruition in comments made to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) yesterday.

“We might add something later (around the trade deadline), but right now I think our team’s built to win and we’re ready to go,” Brown said, as relayed by Rome. Brown then went on to specifically note that he doesn’t expect the club to sign left-hander Blake Snell, the top free agent remaining on the open market, even as he admitted that he “would love to have him” on board.

It’s not necessarily a surprise that the Astros aren’t likely to aggressively pursue a deal with Snell. After all, the club has already entered unprecedented territory this winter when it comes to payroll. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, the Astros have never entered a season with a projected payroll above their $187MM figure from the 2021 season, but RosterResource projects the club to blow that figure out of the water this year with a whopping $240MM payroll entering the 2024 campaign. Those same projections put Houston at a $254MM payroll for luxury tax purposes, just a hair below the second threshold of $257MM. An addition of Snell’s caliber would surely blow past that number, as would even smaller deals for remaining mid-level free agent arms such as Michael Lorenzen or Mike Clevinger.

While Brown’s comments suggest that the club is comfortable with its internal options in the rotation, Houston’s depth is already being tested with a month left to go before Opening Day. Both veteran ace Justin Verlander and sophomore right-hander J.P. France have been sidelined to this point in the spring by shoulder issues, leaving the status of bother hurlers in question ahead of Opening Day. Should both righties begin the season on the shelf, the club would likely be left to turn to either Ronel Blanco or Brandon Bielak as their fifth starter behind the established quartet of Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, and Jose Urquidy. Blanco made seven starts for the Astros last year, pitching to a 4.74 ERA in 38 innings of work, while Bielak posted a 3.69 ERA in 70 2/3 frames over 13 starts.

The recent comments seem to shut the door on the club making any major additions, though it’s at least plausible that the Astros could look to shore up their bullpen depth with a smaller investment. The best remaining relief arm on the free agent market, veteran right-hander Ryne Stanek, spent the last three seasons in Houston and pitched to a strong 2.90 ERA with a 3.91 FIP during his time with the club, though he’s coming off a shaky platform season that saw him post a 4.09 ERA with a career-worst 23.9% strikeout rate. Other veteran options still available include Brad Boxberger and Mark Melancon, each of whom offer late inning experience and could likely be had on non-roster deals after injury-marred 2023 campaigns.

Justin Verlander To Begin Season On Injured List

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Astros ace Justin Verlander will begin the season on the injured list, manager Joe Espada announced Tuesday morning (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle). There’s been no setback for Verlander after he initially reported some soreness in his right shoulder, Espada emphasized, but the 41-year-old will simply need more time to get ramped up for the season. Espada added that Verlander is “doing really well” in his progression, but the team wants to be “smart” rather than try to rush the three-time Cy Young winner back for the Opening Day nod.

Verlander has tossed multiple bullpen sessions since initially revealing he was behind schedule due to his right shoulder — including one as recent as Sunday. Espada didn’t place a firm timeline on Verlander’s return, but there’s been no indication from the team or the player himself that any of his throwing sessions have gone poorly thus far. That’s all reason for some cautious optimism and to hope for a short-term IL stint that sees Verlander miss only a couple of starts.

Fans might be tempted to draw some parallels between the Verlander news and the Kendall Graveman injury that prompted the team’s signing of Josh Hader — but a short-term absence for Verlander doesn’t seem likely to push the ’Stros to one of the high-profile arms remaining on the market. Signing Hader cost the Astros a draft pick but only a 20% tax (about $3.8MM overall), and that move was made largely in response to a season-ending injury. Verlander’s case is quite different both in terms of his recovery timetable and the associated tax ramifications.

The Astros are already well into luxury-tax territory thanks to that Hader deal and are about $1.3MM from crossing the into the second tier of penalization, per RosterResource. Signing either Blake Snell or Jordan Montgomery would require incurring relatively substantial taxes and, quite likely, crossing into the third tier of penalty and having their top pick in the draft pushed back 10 places. Houston will be taxed at that same 20% clip on the next $1.3MM added to the payroll, followed by a 32% tax on the next $20MM and a 62.5% tax on the next $20MM spent. A $25MM AAV deal, for instance, would come with $8.9725MM of taxes. A $30MM AAV deal would trigger about $12.1MM of taxes. Adding anything more than $21-22MM in terms of AAV would also be enough to trigger that hit to their top pick in the draft, and Snell in particular would cost Houston their third-round pick. Like Hader, he rejected a qualifying offer.

Verlander’s timetable to recover will be worth keeping a close eye on not just for the potential roster ramifications and any contingency plans, however. He also has a vesting $35MM player option for the 2025 season that’ll kick in if he pitches 140 innings and if a third-party doctor confirms that Verlander does not have an arm injury (at season’s end) that’d keep him from being ready for the 2025 campaign. Notably, as a condition of the trade sending Verlander from Queens to Houston, the Mets are on the hook for $17.5MM of that option’s value if it vests and if Verlander picks it up.

It’s not yet clear just how long Verlander will be sidelined, but his season-opening IL stint paves the way for lefty Framber Valdez to make his second straight Opening Day start. He’d presumably be followed by a combination of right-handers Cristian Javier, Jose Urquidy, Hunter Brown and, if he’s healthy, J.P. France.

Like Verlander, France has been slowed by some shoulder troubles this spring, although all reports out of Astros camp on his progress have been encouraging. The team has not yet indicated that Opening Day is in jeopardy for France. If he’s also sidelined, he’d join Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis Garcia as Houston starters on the injured list. In that scenario, right-handers Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak would likely be ticketed for the fifth spot on the staff.

AL West Notes: Astros, Sano, A’s

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Since being hired to helm the club’s baseball operations last winter, Astros GM Dana Brown has not been shy about the club’s interest in extending its core players. So far, that has yielded extensions for both right-hander Cristian Javier and second baseman Jose Altuve, with third baseman Alex Bregman and outfielder Kyle Tucker seemingly the club’s next priorities to negotiate with. With that being said, Brown recently indicated to reporters (including The Athletic’s Chandler Rome) that the club would have interest in looking into extensions for players with less service time, as has become commonplace in Atlanta, where Brown served as scouting director prior to joining the Astros.

Per Rome, that interest has not yet materialized in extension negotiations, at least when it comes to shortstop Jeremy Pena and right-hander Bryan Abreu. Pena finished fifth in AL Rookie of the Year voting during the 2022 season and earned a Gold Glove for his work at shortstop, but took a step back last season as he slashed .263/.324/.381 with just 10 home runs in 634 trips to the plate. Abreu, meanwhile, just turned in his second consecutive campaign with a sub-2.00 ERA out of the Astros bullpen, pitching to a 1.75 ERA in 72 innings of work while striking out a whopping 34.8% of batters faced. Pena remains under control through the end of the 2027 season, while Abreu can be controlled through at least 2026.

That the Astros have yet to engage either player in extension talks hardly precludes them from doing so in the future. While Rome relays that Pena recently declined to comment about his contract status, Abreu indicated that he’s open to offers from the team. Rome highlights sophomore catcher Yainer Diaz as another early-career extension candidate in Houston, with right-hander Hunter Brown and outfielder Chas McCormick among other speculative candidate who could make sense as potential extension targets for the club at some point.

More from around the AL West…

  • Prior to signing a minor league deal with the Angels this past winter, veteran slugger Miguel Sano spent the 2023 season hard at work at improving his health after being unable to secure even a non-roster deal with a club last winter on the heels of a 2022 season that saw him slash a ghastly .083/.211/.133 while being limited to just 20 games by knee injuries. During his season away from affiliated ball, The Athletic’s Sam Blum writes that Sano not only focused on keeping his knee healthy after undergoing surgery on it the year prior but also completely overhauled his diet and exercise regime. The results speak for themselves, as Sano entered the Halos’ camp this spring having shed 58 pounds since he last took the field in the big leagues. If Sano can work his way back onto the big league roster, he could be a source of right-handed power in Anaheim after hitting 162 homers in just 694 games during his eight years with the Twins.
  • In recent mailbag, Scott Ostler and John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle relayed that earlier in the Athletics’ search for an interim home between the end of their lease at the Coliseum this fall and the construction of their new stadium in Las Vegas, which is expected to be complete in time for Opening Day 2028, the club considered a multi-city plan that would have seen the club play either 41 or 60 games at the Giants’ home stadium of Oracle Park while splitting the rest of the club’s games between Sacramento and Anaheim. This plan would have kept the A’s in compliance with their TV contract, which stipulates that the club must play at least 41 games in the Bay Area. Ostler and Shea go on to add that San Francisco wasn’t willing to offer the A’s more than 20 games at Oracle, however, and that a split schedule between multiple host cities is no longer under consideration as the club has since turned its attention towards negotiating a lease extension at the Coliseum.

AL Notes: Royals, Astros, McKay

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The Royals are entering the 2024 season with elevated expectations after the club spent more than $100MM in free agency this winter on top of a massive 11-year extension for franchise shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. With that influx of free agent talent comes increased competition for spots on the club’s Opening Day roster. That excess of talent is particularly clear in the outfield, where manager Matt Quatraro recently indicated to reporters (including MLB.com’s Anne Rogers) that the club’s logjam is likely to result in the club carrying five outfielders on its roster to open the 2024 campaign.

Kansas City signed veteran outfield Hunter Renfroe to be the club’s regular right fielder, and Rogers suggests that glove-first center fielder and former top catching prospect MJ Melendez are the favorites to receive regular playing time on the grass alongside him. That leaves two spots on the bench available for a group that includes Drew Waters, Nelson Velazquez, and Dairon Blanco. A former top prospect in the Braves farm system, Waters was shipped to the Royals midseason back in 2022 and has since slashed a decent .231/.306/.402 in 130 games with the club. Velazquez, meanwhile, joined the club at last year’s trade deadline in a deal with the Cubs and displayed prodigious power down the stretch with 14 home runs in just 40 games. Blanco, 31 next month, is by far the oldest of the trio but performed well in a part-time role last season, going 24-for-29 on the basepaths while slashing .258/.324/.452 in 69 games that saw him spend time in all three outfield spots.

With the club expecting to carry five outfielders on the roster to open the season, that significantly limits the paths to an Opening Day roster spot for other bench options. Veterans Adam Frazier and Garrett Hampson both signed major league deals this past winter and appear locked into utility roles on the bench, and with Melendez now a full-time outfielder the Royals will have to enter the season with Freddy Fermin on the roster as the backup to veteran backstop Salvador Perez. That would seemingly leave little room on the club’s roster for Nick Pratto, the club’s first-round pick in the 2017 draft and a former top prospect. The first baseman has 144 big league games under his belt but has yet to establish himself in the majors, slashing just .216/.295/.364 in a combined 527 trips to the plate during that time.

More from around the American League…

  • Astros manager Joe Espada announced to reporters (including MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart) that right-handers Justin Verlander and J.P. France will throw bullpen sessions tomorrow. Espada indicated last week that Verlander’s next bullpen would determine not only whether or not he would then progress to live hitting but also his readiness for Opening Day. If Verlander begins the season on the shelf, it’s possible his spot in the rotation could go to France, assuming that the 28-year-old avoids an injured list stint of his own. The righty impressed with a 3.83 ERA in 136 1/3 innings of work with the big league club last year, almost entirely out of the starting rotation. Should Verlander be healthy enough to make his Opening Day start, France would likely be left to compete for the fifth spot in the club’s rotation with the likes of Ronel Blanco and Brandon Bielak.
  • Rays southpaw Brendan McKay made his first professional appearance since undergoing Tommy John surgery late in the 2022 season today, and Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times spoke to the lefty following the appearance. Per Topkin, McKay expressed satisfaction with his progress, indicating that his curveball is “getting better” while his fastball, which Topkin adds sat at 90 while touching 91, is “in a good spot” to gain more velocity going forward. McKay typically sat at 94 with his heater when he last pitched in the majors in 2019, though the former top prospect and fourth-overall pick of the 2017 draft has dealt with both Tommy John surgery and Thoracic Outlet Syndrome since then. Once a consensus top-30 prospect in the sport, it’s easy to imagine McKay impacting the club’s pitching staff at some point this season if he can remain healthy.

Astros Notes: Verlander, Whitley, McCormick

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Astros ace Justin Verlander discussed his ongoing shoulder issues with reporters (including Chandler Rome of The Athletic) today, and his comments shed little light on whether the veteran righty will be able to take the mound on Opening Day next month.

“We still got some time, obviously it’s tight, but things are progressing,” Verlander told reporters, as relayed by Rome. “…We’re not even looking a week out or two weeks out, so it’s kind of hard to forecast anything past that.”

Verlander went on to make clear that he’s feeling no discomfort in his shoulder, adding that “Every day I touch the mound has been progression.” While the veteran ace has yet to face live hitting this spring, Rome adds that manager Joe Espada indicated Verlander could start to face live hitting “at some point” after his next bullpen session, adding that said bullpen would likely “determine” Verlander’s readiness for Opening Day.

Verlander, who celebrated his 41st birthday last week, followed up his AL Cy Young award winning campaign in 2022 with a solid 2023 split between the Mets and Astros. In 27 starts between the two clubs, the right-hander pitched to a strong 3.22 ERA in 162 1/3 innings of work. That being said, his 21.5% strikeout rate last year was the lowest he had posted since 2015, leaving him with a 3.85 FIP that puts him closer to “solid mid-rotation arm” than “surefire ace.” Even if Verlander isn’t the dominant pitcher he was in his late 30s now that he’s entered his 40s, however, the right-hander figures to be a key piece of the Astros rotation alongside Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier. Should Verlander miss time to start the season, that would likely leave Houston to lean more heavily on their back-of-the-rotation arms such as Jose Urquidy and Hunter Brown.

More from out of Houston…

  • Espada also provided an update regarding the status of right-hander Forrest Whitley, who Rome relays has been dealing with inflammation in his middle finger. Espada indicated that while that inflammation has now subsided, Whitley will be sat down for the next week on a no-throw program. Once a consensus top-10 prospect in the sport, the Astros’ first-round pick in the 2016 draft has not yet made his big league debut despite being on the 40-man roster since 2020 due to a lengthy injury history and a 50-game suspension for violating the league’s drug policy. Whitley has struggled badly as a started at the Triple-A level, with an 8.04 ERA in 87 1/3 career innings at the level, but figures to work exclusively out of the bullpen going forward and entered camp with a chance to compete for a spot in the club’s bullpen this spring.
  • Outfielder Chas McCormick is expected to step into a larger role with Houston in 2024, as MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart notes that both Espada and GM Dana Brown have indicated that McCormick will be an everyday player this season. The 28-year-old slashed an impressive .273/.353/.489 (133 wRC+) last year but appeared in only 115 games while making 457 trips to the plate. The retirement of veteran left fielder Michael Brantley has opened up additional playing time in the club’s outfield mix, however, and it appears that McCormick could be a major beneficiary of that playing time. With Jake Meyers as the club’s likely starting center fielder, that figures to push McCormick to left for the most part, though McTaggart indicates that McCormick could see time in center on days where Yainer Diaz moves from behind the plate to DH, pushing superstar slugger Yordan Alvarez into left field.

Astros Notes: Verlander, France, Framber, Bullpen

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Astros camp kicked off last week with the revelation that right-handers Justin Verlander and J.P. France were both slightly behind schedule due to shoulder troubles. Both, however, have been progressing nicely over the past week-plus. Verlander tossed a bullpen session today, after which manager Joe Espada told reporters he’s “encouraged” with his ace’s progression from that shoulder issue (X link via Brian McTaggart of MLB.com). France, meanwhile, pitched off a mound Wednesday — his first time doing so after being limited to flat ground work at the beginning of camp (X link via Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle).

It’s a positive step for both pitchers, though the team still hasn’t declared with any certainty that both players will be ready for Opening Day. If he’s healthy, Verlander would be the presumptive favorite to start Opening Day. France, meanwhile, figures to compete for a spot at the back of the rotation after impressing as a 28-year-old rookie in 2023. Houston manager Joe Espada has raised the possibility of a six-man rotation this year, which would allow France to continue starting alongside Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown and Jose Urquidy. That’s not set in stone at this point and will of course be dependent on how both righties continue to progress.

On the topic of Valdez, Chandler Rome of the Athletic wrote earlier this week that the left-hander says he has not yet received any sort of extension offer from the team this winter. Houston general manager Dana Brown listed Valdez as an extension target last offseason not long after being hired, and while the team and Valdez discussed parameters last spring, there was a sufficient enough gap that no deal was reached.

Valdez, 30, is controllable through the 2025 season. He and the Astros agreed to a $12.1MM salary for the upcoming season, avoiding an arbitration hearing in doing so. He’s finished ninth or better on each of the past two Cy Young ballots and touts a 3.13 ERA, a 23.5% strikeout rate, an 8.3% walk rate and a massive 63% ground-ball rate in 534 regular season innings, dating back to 2021. Valdez’s name briefly surfaced in trade rumors earlier in the winter, but a deal never seemed especially likely and now feels even less plausible with Verlander and France behind schedule. If anything, Brown has spoken frequently about his desire to constantly be adding to his pitching depth.

Elsewhere on the pitching staff, the Astros are set for an unusual amount of competition in the bullpen this spring, Kawahara writes in a full column. Josh Hader, Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu are locked into late-inning roles, and Rafael Montero’s three-year, $34.5MM contract (covering the 2023-25 seasons) assures him a spot as well. But the Astros lost Phil Maton and Hector Neris to free agency already, and they don’t seem especially likely to re-sign Ryne Stanek, either. They’ll also be without Kendall Graveman, who’ll miss the season due to shoulder surgery.

Among the options to step into prominent bullpen roles are righties Brandon Bielak, Ronel Blanco, Dylan Coleman, Shawn Dubin, Seth Martinez, Forrest Whitley and Oliver Ortega. All are on the 40-man roster, as are southpaws Parker Mushinski and Bennett Sousa. Righty Wander Suero is the most experienced non-roster invitee in camp.

Brown, the team’s general manager, tells Kawahara that the team will “take a close look” at Coleman in particular. Both Espada and pitching coach Josh Miller praised Coleman’s raw stuff and cited a belief that the Astros can get him back to his 2022 form, when he posted a 2.78 ERA, fanned nearly a quarter of his opponents and sat just shy of 98 mph with his heater. The 2023 season was a disaster for Coleman, however, as he posted an 8.84 ERA and walked 19 batters in 18 1/3 innings with Kansas City.

Sousa, too, will get strong consideration. Brown noted to Kawahara that if he’d been acquired prior to the Sept. 1 postseason eligibility deadline last year, he’d likely have been on Houston’s playoff rosters. Espada indicated that he doesn’t feel compelled to have a second lefty in the ’pen beyond Hader and is focused primarily on just carrying the best group the team has, regardless of handedness. Still, Sousa posted interesting strikeout, walk and swinging-strike rates in a small sample last season (29.4%, 5.9% and 12.9%, respectively) and has fanned nearly a third of his career opponents in parts of three Triple-A seasons.

Kyle Tucker On Extension: Some Talks But No Offer

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Astros outfielder Kyle Tucker addressed the state of his extension talks with the club this week, discussing the matter with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. He said the two sides have had some talks but “not a hard offer or anything like that.” The Excel Sports Management client added that he’s open to those discussions, “whether it happens now or a little later.”

Tucker, 27, has established himself as one of the better all-around contributors in the game. Over the past three seasons, he’s hit 89 home runs and swiped 69 bases. Only 19 players in the league had more homers in that stretch and none of those had more steals than Tucker. His .278/.353/.517 batting line in that time has led to a wRC+ of 138, 16th among qualified hitters in that span. He’s also received solid grades for his glovework in right field.

Astros general manager Dana Brown has been candid about his desire to sign extensions with the club’s players ever since getting the job last year. Around the time of those statements, they locked up Cristian Javier with a five-year, $64MM deal. More recently, they got a new deal done with José Altuve, a five-year, $125MM pact.

There’s still time to get something done with Tucker, as he’s under club control through the end of the 2025 season. However, his earning power will only increase as he moves closer to that date. MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows just two position players with between four and five years of service time have received nine-figure extensions since the start of 2015. Bryan Reynolds got exactly $100MM from the Pirates while Matt Olson got $168MM from Atlanta.

When looking at players between five and six years of service time, it clearly takes a lot more money to keep them from getting to the open market. Byron Buxton got $100MM guaranteed but with loads of extensions. Xander Bogaerts got $120MM from the Red Sox in 2019, which was generally seen a team-friendly deal. Nolan Arenado got $234MM from the Rockies while each of Rafael Devers and Francisco Lindor got over $300MM, landing at $313.5MM and $341MM, respectively.

If the Astros are motivated to get a deal done, it would be in their interest to do it sooner rather than later. Barring an unexpected swoon in performance or an injury-marred campaign in 2024, Tucker’s price will only rise over the next year or two. Based on Tucker’s framing of the current state of affairs, it doesn’t seem like anything is close to being completed.

They also wanted to get something done around this time last year but reportedly faced notable gaps in those talks and didn’t seal the deal. Tucker went on to have another great year and bumped his 2024 salary to $12MM, avoiding arbitration last month. Brown recently indicated that the club will make Tucker an offer at some point, but time will tell if it will be enough to get his signature on the dotted line.

The Astros are in uncharted waters when it comes to their finances. Cot’s Baseball Contracts lists their highest Opening Day payroll as $188MM in 2021. This year, Roster Resource has them way up at $240MM. Their competitive balance tax figure is also high for them, currently at $255MM, well beyond the base threshold of $237MM. They have never paid the tax before, having only gone over in 2020 when the taxes were waived during the shortened season.

Going forward, there’s a bit more room but the slate isn’t exactly clean. They already have over $100MM committed to 2025, 2026 and 2027, thanks to big contracts for Altuve, Javier, Yordan Álvarez and Josh Hader. Next year’s budget is at $117MM but arbitration raises for Tucker and Framber Valdez could add around $40MM to that, plus raises for players like Chas McCormick, Jeremy Peña and others. Ryan Pressly also has a $14MM option that vests if he makes 50 appearances this year.

The next two years will see players like Tucker, Valdez, Pressly, Alex Bregman and Justin Verlander reach the end of their contracts. Those expiring deals may open up some spending room for the club but will also require them to produce replacements for those key players, which may involve signing free agents. How they look to navigate that double-edged sword should have a notable impact on the future of the club.

Justin Verlander, J.P. France Behind Schedule Due To Shoulder Issues

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Astros right-hander Justin Verlander is a few weeks behind his normal Spring Training schedule due to a shoulder issue. He spoke to members of the media about it today, with Brian McTaggart of MLB.com relaying video on X of the veteran discussing the situation. General manager Dana Brown also relayed that righty J.P. France is dealing with shoulder inflammation, though Brown isn’t especially worried since both pitchers are playing catch. “If they were shut down, it would be more concerning,” Brown said, per Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle.

“I’m a little bit behind schedule right now, had a little hiccup early on that’s resolved itself but I have to be really cautious with how I’m building up,” Verlander said. “I guess my body doesn’t respond the same at 40 as it does at 25. So, you know, I’m a couple weeks behind.” When asked to elaborate on the hiccup, he continued: “When I first started playing catch, I usually shut it down for a while. This time, when I shut it down and picked the ball back up, my shoulder didn’t feel so great, so kind of had to take a step back and kind of just really be diligent about my buildup.” When asked about Opening Day, he said it would depend on how things go in the next few weeks.

It seems like the concern is fairly minor at this point, though it’s less than ideal for the club that a couple members of its rotation mix are already dealing with issues just as camp is opening. The Astros are already set to open the season with Lance McCullers Jr. and Luis García on the injured list, with both of those pitchers having undergone significant surgeries last year. Brown told MLB Network Radio earlier this week that those two guys are on track for returns in the second half, per Jon Morosi of MLB.com.

Without McCullers or García, Houston’s rotation mix would project to be Verlander, Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Hunter Brown, with one spot available for someone like France, José Urquidy or Brandon Bielak. If Verlander and/or France end up requiring a stint on the injured list to start the year, everyone would be moved up a peg or two on the chart.

Verlander, who turns 41 next week, also dealt with a shoulder issue last spring while with the Mets. At the end of March, he was placed on the IL with a teres major strain and didn’t make his season debut until May. He was ultimately able to make 27 starts on the year between the Mets and Astros after a midseason trade, but with diminished stuff from his 2022 Cy Young-winning year. His ERA went from 1.75 to 3.22 and his strikeout rate dropped from 27.8% to 21.5% with the velo on all his pitches slightly lower as well. He did seem to get better as the season went along, however, with a 3.60 ERA and 19.7% strikeout rate in the first half compared to a 2.92 ERA and 23% strikeout rate in the second.

France, 29 in April, tossed 136 1/3 innings last year with a 3.83 ERA, 17.4% strikeout rate, 8.1% walk rate and 42.8% ground ball rate. He’s obviously less essential to the club’s rotation than Verlander, not even guaranteed a roster spot since he has options. But every club has to deal with injuries and reach into their depth at some point during the year. He would have been a candidate to step up if Verlander needed to miss time but that could be in jeopardy if France is himself delayed.

Brown has frequently stated that he’s always looking to add pitching and made similar comments today, with video relayed by McTaggart. “I’m always in the business of trying to add starter depth. I think the season, like I said before, it’s 162 games. If you get a situation where you can trade for a starter or if you can sign a starter, I think you should do it if it makes sense budget wise and all that. But at the end of the day, I’m always in the market for pitching. I’ve said that since day one. I don’t think you can have enough pitching in 162 games.”

The Astros are in unprecedented territory in terms of their payroll. Per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, their highest Opening Day payroll was $188MM in 2021. Roster Resource pegs them at $240MM for this year and also has their competitive balance tax figure at $255MM. They have never paid the tax before, as they only time they went over was in 2020, when the payments were waived in the shortened season. This year’s line is $237MM, so they’re already well over.

If the club decides they need reinforcements, there are plenty of names still available in free agency. That includes marquee guys like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery but also more affordable names like Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and many more. Given the club’s payroll and the minor nature of the injuries, it doesn’t seem likely that the club will suddenly go out and splurge, but it will be a situation worth monitoring if another pitcher suffers an injury or a setback is suffered by Verlander or France. Despite Brown’s assertion that he’s always looking for starting depth, they haven’t signed any veterans to minor league deals so could perhaps look to add some non-roster guys in the coming days.

Brown: Astros Plan To Make Kyle Tucker Extension Offer

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Astros GM Dana Brown has been candid about the club’s efforts to extend a member of their core ever since he arrived in Houston last winter. Yesterday marked the one-year anniversary of the first extension the club signed under Brown’s leadership (a five-year deal for right-hander Cristian Javier), and longtime franchise face Jose Altuve agreed to a five-year extension of his own just last week. While attention has generally turned toward third baseman Alex Bregman as he heads into his final year before free agency and Houston brass indicates they intend to offer him a long-term extension offer before he reaches the open market, Brown recently made clear that Bregman isn’t the only star hitter the club plans to broach an extension with.

In an appearance on MLB Network Radio today, Brown told hosts Jim Bowden and Jim Duquette that the club plans to discuss a long-term extension with outfielder Kyle Tucker in addition to Bregman. Brown emphasized that there’s no specifically timeline for when those conversations will be held, though he noted that the club has “a little bit more time for Tucker,” who won’t be a free agent until after the 2025 campaign.

That the club would have interest in extending Tucker is hardly a surprise. Brown identified Tucker alongside Bregman, Altuve, and Framber Valdez as members of the club’s core they were hoping to extend last spring, though the club faced gaps in talks with both Tucker and Valdez before eventually deciding to wait on engaging with Altuve and Bregman until this winter. At the time, Tucker was coming off a stretch of three seasons where he slashed .274/.341/.516 en route to MVP votes in the 2021 and ’22 seasons as well as a Gold Glove award and All Star nod in the latter campaign.

The price on Tucker’s services figures to have only gone up since last winter. The slugger’s age-26 campaign saw him slash a fantastic .284/.369/.517 in 157 games, falling just one home run short of a 30/30 season. He led the AL with 112 RBI and earned his second consecutive All Star nod, the first Silver Slugger award of his career, and a top-5 finish in AL MVP voting behind Shohei Ohtani, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Julio Rodriguez. Tucker and the Astros managed to avoid arbitration last month by agreeing on a $12MM salary for the 2024 campaign, though the sides did not use those negotiations as a vehicle to explore a longer-term arrangement.

With Tucker just one year away from free agency and coming off the best season of his young career, it could be a challenge for the club to extend the Excel Sports client. Under the ownership of Jim Crane, the Astros have never given out a contract longer than six years, nor one that guarantees more than $150MM. Just one outfielder with a similar pedigree to Tucker have inked long-term deals with between four and five years of service time: slugger Giancarlo Stanton signed a 13-year, $325MM megadeal with the Marlins nearly a decade ago, in November of 2014.

This isn’t to suggest Tucker should exceed or even meet the figure Stanton received, of course. Age plays an important role in a player’s earning power as they approach free agency, a reality that heavily favored Stanton in comparison to Tucker. Stanton was on track to reach free agency ahead of his age-27 season, while Tucker will hit free agency ahead of his age-29 campaign. What’s more, his overall offensive numbers pale in comparison to Stanton’s. Impressive Tucker’s career-best 146 wRC+ in 2021 was, Stanton’s wRC+ for his entire career at the time was a comparable 145, with an incredible platform season that saw him slash .288/.395/.555 with a 161 wRC+ the season prior to the deal coming together.

Even as Tucker can’t be expected to sign a deal in the same realm as that of Stanton, it’s nonetheless difficult to see Houston locking up Tucker long term without exiting their apparent comfort zone given the success outfielders have found in free agency in recent years. Former Astros outfielder George Springer landed a six-year, $150MM deal with the Blue Jays after entering free agency ahead of his age-31 season with a career wRC+ of 134, and more recently Brandon Nimmo re-signed with the Mets on an eight-year, $162MM deal last winter after hitting free agency a year older than Tucker is slated to with a career wRC+ of 133. Given Tucker’s youth and similar offensive numbers, it seems likely he’d have a good chance to beat the deals landed by Springer and Nimmo in previous offseasons, even as both players augmented their value with the ability to play center field at the time of the deal.

While the Astros, who have just over $134MM in luxury tax payroll committed for the 2025 season as things stand, could certainly afford to give Tucker a lengthy contract, it seems likely that such a deal would require Houston to enter territory not yet charted by the club with their offer, a similar predicament to the one they face with Bregman. It also seems unlikely that Tucker would offer the club a significant hometowm discount, given comments from Brown last winter indicating that the Astros were facing a larger gap in extension discussions with Tucker than Valdez, neither of whom the club ultimately came together on a deal with.

Between the club’s hesitance to offer star-level contracts throughout Crane’s tenure as owner, Brown’s indication that Bregman is the club’s priority for the time being, and the difficulties the sides faced in bridging what was likely a smaller gap last spring, there’s plenty of obstacles facing Tucker and the Astros should they look to extend their relationship long-term. While it’s impossible to rule anything out given the difficult gaps clubs and players have bridged previously around the league, an extension for Tucker would surely require the club moving well outside of its comfort zone in terms of player payroll. That’s particularly true if a Tucker extension were to be paired with a deal locking up Bregman long-term.

Astros Still Hoping To Add To Pitching Staff

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The Astros made a huge addition to their pitching staff recently by signing Josh Hader but it doesn’t appear they are done. “I think our bullpen is pretty solid,” manager Dana Brown said yesterday, with video relayed by Brian McTaggart of MLB.com. “We may be able to use one more there. But the pitching, if we get a starter, we could put one of the starters in the ’pen. That would solve that problem. But I’m always in the market of saying ’Hey, where can we find pitching? You know, where can we make it better?’ I think our rotation’s good enough to get back to the World Series right now but I’m always looking to improve pitching because I know how guys get hurt during the course of the year.”

The Astros are set to open the 2024 season with the same rotation mix as they had in the second half of the 2023 campaign. Justin Verlander, Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier will be in the first three slots. Luis García, who had Tommy John surgery in May of last year, could return at some point in the second half. Until then, the spots at the back half will likely be taken by some combination of Hunter Brown, José Urquidy, J.P. France or Brandon Bielak.

The bullpen, however, has seen more turnover since last year. Each of Héctor Neris, Phil Maton and Ryne Stanek reached free agency. Neris signed with the Cubs and Maton with the Rays, while Stanek is still a free agent. The Astros made one big push to cover for those three losses by signing Hader.

The signing of Hader gives the Astros a deadly trio to finish games, with Ryan Pressly and Bryan Abreu also excellent relievers. But the group gets a bit less scary after that. Rafael Montero is coming off a rough year, posting a 5.08 ERA in 2023 after signing a three-year, $34.5MM deal. The 40-man roster also has guys like Ronel Blanco, Bennett Sousa, Shawn Dubin, Forrest Whitley, Seth Martinez, Parker Mushinski, Dylan Coleman and Oliver Ortega but they are all pretty light on experience.

Adding to that group would be sensible but it’s interesting that Brown said that could come via adding a starter and bumping someone from that mix to the bullpen. Brown looked pretty good for much of the year but seemed to fade down the stretch, with a 3.62 ERA through June but a 6.95 ERA after. He’s still only 25 and that was his first full season in the big leagues, so it’s possible he’ll avoid that slowdown as he acclimates to the big league grind.

Urquidy came into 2023 with a career ERA of 3.74 but his .253 batting average on balls in play and 78.5% strand rate were both on the lucky side. His 4.35 FIP and 4.29 SIERA pointed to some regression, which came last year. He posted a 5.29 ERA in 2023 and also missed about three months due to shoulder discomfort.

France was fairly solid in his 24 outings, with a 3.83 ERA, though he might be due for some regression himself. He only struck out 17.4% of batters faced with a .289 BABIP and 76.7% strand rate, leading to a 4.66 FIP and 4.96 SIERA. Bielak also had a 3.83 ERA last year in his 15 outings, though also with concerning peripherals. Though his 50.2% ground ball rate was strong, both his 17.6% strikeout rate and 10.2% walk rate were subpar. His 76.2% strand rate may have helped him out, which is why his 5.19 FIP and 5.02 SIERA weren’t as pretty.

Those are generally adequate options for a club to have at the back of a rotation, particularly when the front is so strong. But as Brown alluded to, injuries will happen and there’s always room for more pitching. Bielak is out of options, so perhaps he could get bumped into a relief role if the club were to find another starter somewhere.

How much ability they have to pursue external additions will be an interesting variable. The club has generally been reluctant to pay the competitive balance tax but came into this offseason right near the line and then blew past it when they signed Hader. Per Roster Resource, their CBT number is currently at $255MM, well beyond the base threshold of $237MM and nearing the second tier of $257MM. Getting another pitcher of significance, unless via some sort of cash neutral trade, would surely involve pushing over that line and incurring a higher rate of taxation. The free agent market features big names like Blake Snell and Jordan Montgomery as well as guys like Michael Lorenzen, Hyun Jin Ryu and many others.

Elsewhere on the Astros’ roster, McTaggart also relayed some video of new manager Joe Espada, answering a question about Yordan Álvarez playing the outfield. “I think that Yordan could play more left,” Espada said. “I’m going to try to put him more in left field because I think it’s important for us to open up the DH spot a little bit more for some other guys to get some more rest. I think when Yordan is healthy and he’s moving around really well, I think he plays a good enough left field for us. But also, I really want to keep that DH spot open to give some guys, you know, get them off their feet and keep their bats in the lineup.” When asked specifically about catcher Yainer Diaz, he affirmed that Diaz would be a guy he’d like to keep in the lineup even when he’s getting a day off from catching.

Álvarez is one of the best hitters in baseball, having hit .295/.390/.588 in his career for a wRC+ of 166, and will be in the lineup as much as possible. But injuries have been an issue from time to time. He missed almost all of the 2020 season due to right knee discomfort. Hand inflammation sent him to the injured list in 2022 and he dealt with an oblique issue last year. As he has battled those issues, his time in the field has never been huge. Thus far, he has topped out at 467 2/3 innings over 56 games in 2022.

Moving him out of the designated hitter slot more often would open more time there for other guys, as Espada mentioned, but it would come with the risk of stretching Álvarez. More time in the field increases the chances of suffering an injury. Meanwhile, the defensive metrics are split on how capable he is with the glove. He’s logged three Defensive Runs Saved thus far in his career but Outs Above Average has him at a -10.

But if he were to head out to the grass a bit more often, it could benefit someone like Diaz. The young backstop is in line to get a lot of playing time anyway after hitting 23 home runs last year, but no catcher starts every game. J.T. Realmuto led the league with 130 starts behind the dish last year with no one else topping 116. That means there will certainly be days where Victor Caratini is donning the tools of ignorance and Diaz would need the DH slot to get into the lineup.

If Álvarez were to play left field more often, that could cut into the playing time of Chas McCormick or Jake Meyers. The Astros will have Kyle Tucker in right field the vast majority of the time, leaving only position for that duo if Álvarez is in left. Both are capable of playing center but Brown said in December that the club was planning to give Meyers a shot at the regular center field job with McCormick the regular in left.

Meyers has strong defensive grades but has hit just .235/.296/.379 in his career thus far for a wRC+ of 88. McCormick’s defense isn’t graded quite as strong but he’s still above average, and with much better offensive output. He’s hit .259/.336/.449 overall for a wRC+ of 120. Pushing Álvarez to the outfield more often would have to squeeze one of them out. Brown also said last month that the club is open to add a left-handed hitting outfielder, with both Meyers and McCormick hitting from the right side.

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