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Braves Acquire Jarred Kelenic, Marco Gonzales, Evan White From Mariners

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The Braves have acquired outfielder Jarred Kelenic from the Mariners, per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Per Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times, left-hander Marco Gonzales and first baseman Evan White are also headed to Atlanta in the deal. In return, the Mariners will receive right-handers Jackson Kowar and Cole Phillips. The Braves have since announced the deal, which includes cash considerations headed from Seattle to Atlanta.

Kelenic, the sixth-overall pick in the 2018 draft and a former consensus top-5 prospect in the sport, struggled to a .168/.251/.338 slash line in 558 trips to the plate across his first two seasons in the majors. Despite the brutal start to Kelenic’s big league career, he managed to put together a solid campaign in 2023 as Seattle’s regular left fielder. In 416 trips to the plate across 105 games, the youngster slashed a solid .253/.327/.419. Now Kelenic, who is not yet eligible for arbitration, heads to Atlanta with five seasons of team control remaining coming off a career-best season in the majors where he posted a wRC+ of 108.

Even that performance came with some red flags, however. While Kelenic walked at an above average 9.9% clip, his 31.7% strikeout rate ranked in just the seventh percentile among qualified hitters and his overall slash line surely benefited from a .359 BABIP. He also struggled considerably after a hot April, slashing just .235/.314/.356 the rest of the way. That said, it’s worth noting that Kelenic, who will play the 2024 season at just age-24, posted a .321 wOBA in 2023 that was actually 12 points lower than his expected number of .333. Additionally, his .359 BABIP in 2023 may not be as outlandish as his career .268 mark in the majors may suggest, as he’s never posted a BABIP lower than .323 at the Triple-A level in a season during his career. In addition, it’s possible his late-season numbers are skewed by the fact that the 24-year-old missed more than two months after he suffered a fractured foot from kicking a water cooler back in July.

Looking ahead to 2024, The Athletic’s David O’Brien relays that the Braves plan to have Kelenic and Vaughn Grissom compete for the everyday role in left field during the spring, with a platoon situation between the two possible as Grissom looks to split time between the left field and the infield dirt. That said, it certainly seems possible that Kelenic could earn an everyday role in Atlanta if he shows his step forward in 2023 wasn’t a fluke. Even if Kelenic simply repeats his 2023 campaign he would represent a notable upgrade over Eddie Rosario, who drew 122 starts in left field for the Braves last year while slashing just .255/.305/.450 (100 wRC+) in 516 trips to the plate.

To acquire Kelenic, the Braves take on the salaries of both Gonzales and White. Gonzales is owed $12.25MM in 2024, while White is owed $7MM in 2024, $8MM in 2025, and a $2MM buyout on a $10MM club option for 2026. While it’s not currently known how much cash Atlanta received in the deal, it’s fair to assume the Braves are taking on the majority of that nearly $30MM in guaranteed money, including $19.25MM in dollars owed this next season. Before accounting for the cash received from Seattle, the deal pushes Atlanta’s 2024 payroll to just over $224MM and just under $261MM for luxury tax purposes, per RosterResource. If that projection holds going forward, it would put the Braves just over the second luxury tax threshold, which sits at $257MM for the 2024 campaign.

Gonzales, 32 in February, struggled to a 5.22 ERA in 50 innings across ten starts this season before undergoing season-ending surgery to repair a nerve issue in his forearm. Gonzales is expected to be ready for Spring Training in 2024 and, if healthy, could provide the Braves with a serviceable back-end rotation option who could give competition to Reynaldo Lopez and Bryce Elder in Spring Training. Prior to his injury-marred 2023 season, Gonzales had been a reliable source of innings for the Mariners in recent years, averaging 174 innings of work across four 162-game seasons between 2018 and 2022. Gonzales’s contract includes a $15MM club option for the 2025 season that does not include a buyout, though Gonzales would likely have to take a significant step forward in 2024 for the Braves to consider exercising that option.

White, 27, does not figure to be a contributor to the Braves over the life of his contract. The former top prospect owns a career .165/.235/.308 slash line in the majors and has not appeared in the big leagues since May 2021. Over the past two seasons, White has appeared in just 30 professional games with a slash line of just .200/.310/.397 at the Triple-A level during that time. White spent almost the entire 2023 campaign on the 60-day IL, first due to a left adductor strain and then thanks to hip surgery, though he too is expected to be ready for Spring Training.

In addition to taking on the salaries of White and Gonzales, the Braves parted with a pair of interesting young arms in Kowar and Phillips. Kowar’s stay in the Braves organization was a short one, as the righty had just been acquired from the Royals last month as the return in the Kyle Wright trade. As a former top-100 prospect and Kansas City’s first-round pick in the 2018 draft, Kowar is an intriguing piece despite his struggles in the majors to this point in his career. As MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted at the time of his trade to Atlanta, Kowar averaged 97 mph on his fastball in 2023 after converting to full-time relief duties and thanks to his eligibility for a fourth option year in 2024 figures to provide the Mariners with a fireballing, optionable relief arm headed into next season. Phillips, meanwhile, was Atlanta’s second-round pick in the 2022 draft. The 20-year-old has not yet made his professional debut after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but ranked as the Braves’ #7 prospect per MLB Pipeline prior to the swap.

As for the Mariners, the club is clearly in the midst of retooling their lineup. The club has traded both Kelenic and third baseman Eugenio Suarez and non-tendered DH Mike Ford since the offseason began while watching Teoscar Hernandez depart via free agency, leaving four major holes in the club’s lineup. That being said, the departures of those four players figure to help Seattle in their quest to improve their lineup’s contact skills next season; each of the aforementioned hitters struck out more than 30% of the time in 2024. Parting ways with four of the league’s most punchout prone bats is an excellent start toward that goal, even as the club faces an uphill battle in replacing the quartet’s production.

While replacing four members of the club’s starting lineup is no easy task, Seattle at least figures to have plenty of payroll space with which to accomplish that goal. RosterResource projects the club for a payroll of just $115MM in 2024 pending the addition of cash considerations sent to Atlanta, while Adam Judge of The Seattle Times notes that president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto indicated today that the club’s payroll will “very likely” rise in 2024 relative to its 2023 total. The Mariners posted a payroll of $140MM in 2023, meaning the club should have more than $25MM worth of room to make additions to their lineup, though it’s unclear how much Seattle is willing to surpass that $140MM figure.

Even with that amount of money available for additions, it’s worth noting that the club would need to significantly increase payroll over its 2023 levels to be able to make even one impact addition on the level of, for example, Cody Bellinger or Juan Soto. Given the number of holes the Mariners will need to fill in their lineup, it seems more likely that the club will be limited to adding mid-level salaries to its payroll. The free agent market is unlikely to offer many solutions, with the best mid-level bats such as Hernandez and Matt Chapman being among the more strikeout-prone players available this winter.

That said, the club has reportedly discussed deals for both outfielder Randy Arozarena and third baseman Isaac Paredes with the Rays recently. Adding even one of those players would surely require significant capital in terms of prospects and young players, though it’s worth noting that the Rays appear to be on the hunt for controllable starting pitching, which the Mariners have an excess of. Speculatively speaking, swinging a deal for Paredes and/or Arozarena would allow Seattle to shore up its lineup without breaking the bank, allowing the club to pursue contact-oriented bats like Lourdes Gurriel Jr. or Whit Merrifield in free agency.

NL Notes: Cease, Braves, Nationals, Hampson, D’Backs

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The Braves are known to have trade interest in Dylan Cease, and given the team’s penchant for signing players to long-term extensions, locking up a Georgia native like Cease would seem like a logical next step if a deal can be worked out to obtain the righty from the White Sox.  However, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal points out a possible obstacle — Cease is represented by Scott Boras, who traditionally advises his clients to test free agency rather than sign long-term extensions.

Enough high-profile Boras clients have signed extensions that this isn’t at all a hard-and-fast rule, since as Rosenthal notes, Boras will ultimately operate according to his client’s demands.  But it is perhaps noteworthy for this particular scenario, since Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos rarely acquires Boras Corporations clients, even though both Anthopoulos and Boras have denied any lack of communication or lack of connection between the two sides.  Trading for and extending Cease would be a way of putting this narrative to bed, though it remains to be seen if Atlanta will instead opt for another frontline pitcher besides Cease as the Braves continue to look for rotation help.

More from the National League…

  • Not much has changed in the Lerner family’s attempts to sell the Nationals, as the search is now approaching two full years since news first broke of the Lerners’ explorations about a sale.  The Washington Post’s Chelsea Janes provides something of an update on the situation, though Ted Leonsis remains the top suitor but still seems unwilling to meet the Lerners’ desired price of around $2.4 billion.  Leonsis’ last offer topped the $2 billion mark, but the Lerners don’t appear in any hurry to make a sale unless Leonsis or another bidder ups the ante.  The seemingly neverending dispute with the Orioles about MASN broadcasting revenues also still remains a sticking point in any ownership discussions.  In terms of how this translates to the on-field product, Janes notes that the Nationals’ low payroll has more to do with the team’s rebuild strategy than it does a concerted effort to cut costs in advance of a potential sale.
  • The Diamondbacks had some interest in Garrett Hampson before the utilityman signed with the Royals earlier this week, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports.  The versatile Hampton would’ve been a backup at several positions off the bench, and in particularly been a right-handed hitting complement to Alek Thomas or Geraldo Perdomo at center field or shortstop, respectively.  Right-handed hitting is a priority for the D’Backs in general, and Piecoro suggests that J.D. Martinez might be a candidate for a return to Arizona, based off GM Mike Hazen’s recent comments about how the Diamondbacks could be open to a DH-centric player who swings from the right side.  Arizona has already landed one notable right-handed bat this offseason in acquiring Eugenio Suarez from the Mariners.
  • Sticking with the National League champs, the Diamondbacks named Shaun Larkin as their new director of player development earlier this week.  Larkin has spent the last three seasons as the Dodgers’ field coordinator as part of an eight-year tenure in L.A., and he previously had a long history as a minor league player, coach, and manager in Cleveland’s farm system.  Larkin’s hiring is the latest move in a D’Backs offseason that has seen quite a bit of turnover in the front office and coaching ranks, though as Hazen told Piecoro, “we 100 percent expected it.  This is what happens when you have a successful season….Bringing some outside perspectives into the organization in terms of what’s going on in scouting and player development around the game, I think is important.”

Braves Sign Luis Liberato To Minor League Deal

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The Braves and outfielder Luis Liberato have agreed to a minor league deal, as noted by Baseball America’s Matt Eddy. It’s unclear if the deal includes an invite to major league spring training.

Liberato, 28 later this month, was signed out of the Dominican Republic by Seattle back in 2012. He spent nine seasons in total in the Mariners organization, eventually reaching the Triple-A level for a full season in 2021 at age 25. In 337 trips to the plate that year, Liberato slashed .279/.338/.436 while primarily playing center field. The solid showing earned Liberato a minor league deal with the Padres when he hit minor league free agency the following winter. The outfielder started the 2022 season at the club’s Triple-A affiliate in El Paso and got fantastic results, with a .261/.354/.541 slash line in 99 games. While that performance came in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, it was still 16% better than league average by measure of wRC+.

The strong numbers at Triple-A earned Liberato his first big league opportunity in September of 2022, when the club used him as a pinch runner and defensive replacement during their push to the playoffs. Though he appeared in seven games down the stretch, Liberato stepped up to the plate just five times, going hitless with three strikeouts in his first big league cup of coffee. After being outrighted off the club’s 40-man roster late in the 2022 season, Liberato returned to the Padres in 2023 on a new minor league deal but didn’t find the same offensive success, as his .261/.365/.461 slash line in 69 games with El Paso this year was good for a roughly league average wRC+ of just 99.

Now headed to Atlanta, Liberato figures to enter the season as outfield depth for a club that recently loss left fielder Eddie Rosario to free agency. He figures to join the club’s outfield mix at Triple-A to start the 2024 season alongside youngsters like Jesse Franklin V, Cody Milligan, and Justin Dean.

Braves, Tommy Doyle Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Braves have added reliever Tommy Doyle on a minor league contract, according to the transaction tracker at MLB.com. It seems likely he’ll get an invitation to MLB Spring Training.

Doyle spent a little over a week on the free agent market. The right-hander was designated for assignment as the corresponding move when the Rockies acquired Cal Quantrill from the Guardians. Colorado non-tendered him directly from DFA limbo, meaning Doyle never landed on waivers (as is otherwise the case for players who are DFA and not traded).

That sent him to free agency for the first time. A third-round pick of Colorado in 2017, Doyle made a very brief MLB debut at the end of the shortened season. The Rox outrighted him from the 40-man roster a year later but reselected his contract this past July.

The Virginia product logged his most extensive major league action out of the Rox’s bullpen in the second half. He appeared in 15 games, working 23 2/3 innings. Doyle struggled to a 6.85 ERA with a subpar 17.5% strikeout percentage and a hefty 12.6% walk rate. Things were much better in Triple-A, where he turned in a 3.41 ERA over 37 innings despite working in a brutal home environment for pitchers in Albuquerque. Doyle punched out a solid 26.6% of batters faced at the top minor league level, albeit with a still concerning 11.7% walk rate.

There aren’t likely to be many season-opening opportunities in the Atlanta bullpen. The Braves have spots committed to Raisel Iglesias, A.J. Minter, Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson, Reynaldo López, Tyler Matzek and Aaron Bummer. Even if López works out of the starting rotation, as the organization has suggested is possible, there’d only be around two vacancies available if everyone is healthy. Dylan Lee or Daysbel Hernández could have first crack at those jobs. Doyle figures to open the year at Triple-A Gwinnett as a depth option.

Latest On Dylan Cease

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Nov. 30: The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggests a very different scenario regarding Cease, writing that Getz & Co. prefer to wait to move him until after the top starters on the market have signed. Clubs with current interest (e.g. Cincinnati, Baltimore), aren’t likely to play for the top names in free agency anyhow and will thus remain in play even if the Sox take their time trading Cease. And, by waiting until the top of the free agent market thins out, the Sox could potentially attract more bidders in the form of those who miss out on the likes of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery, etc.

Nov. 29: The White Sox have discussed Dylan Cease trades with teams since the offseason got underway. It seems they’ve gained some amount of traction, as Jon Morosi of MLB.com tweets that talks have “intensified” this week. Morosi suggests the ChiSox may pull the trigger on a deal prior to the Winter Meetings, which begin Sunday evening.

USA Today’s Bob Nightengale has linked the Dodgers and Braves to the hard-throwing righty in recent weeks. There are surely plenty of other teams that have been in touch with first-year general manager Chris Getz.  Morosi calls the Braves one of the “finalists” for Cease’s services. That implies the Sox have narrowed down the field of suitors, although there’s no clarity as to how many clubs are still in the running.

Cease has been a popular trade target going back to the deadline. The Sox elected not to move him over the summer. A few weeks after the deadline, owner Jerry Reinsdorf dismissed front office leaders Rick Hahn and Ken Williams. He bumped Getz from assistant GM to the top role not long thereafter. Getz has rather bluntly discussed the lack of depth on the MLB roster. He has made clear there aren’t any players who are categorically off the table in trade discussions.

While Luis Robert Jr. probably has the most appeal of anyone on the team, Cease is the more likely of their high-value targets to change uniforms. The Sox have their franchise center fielder signed to a contract with club options running through the 2027 season. Cease is under team control for two years. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him for an $8.8MM salary in his second-to-last season of arbitration eligibility.

Cease, who turns 28 next month, is coming off a relative down season. His ERA jumped from 2.20 during his Cy Young runner-up campaign in 2022 to 4.58 this year. Cease lost a couple points off his strikeout rate but still fanned a quality 27.3% of opposing hitters while taking the ball for a full slate of 33 starts.

Despite the relative down season, he remains the clear best pitcher on the roster. While Getz has expressed a willingness to make significant changes, he hasn’t characterized the situation as a rebuild. It stands to reason they’d look for major league and/or upper minors talent in a Cease trade. They took a volume approach to their first major trade of the offseason, acquiring five players (four of whom are MLB-ready depth types) from the Braves for reliever Aaron Bummer two weeks ago.

MLBTR Podcast: Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Offseason Questions

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Tim Dierkes of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Could someone like Frankie Montas as a one-year rental bounce back and/or Brandon Woodruff coming off an injury be of interest to the Orioles as a starting pitcher? (15:25)
  • The Reds seemingly have a lot of payroll flexibility. However, I’ve been a Reds fan my whole life and I don’t want to set myself up for disappointment. Realistically, how much do you think they’ll spend? Has to be at least 35 to 40 million, right? Right? (19:10)
  • Farhan Zaidi and the Giants are once again claiming to be “all-in” on the free agent market. Do you think that players not wanting to play in San Francisco, for a variety of reasons, is a substantial factor in past and future failures to bring in star caliber talent? (27:25)
  • What would it take for the Mariners to sign Juan Soto to a long term contract if they can acquire him via trade? (33:55)

Check out our past episodes!

Braves Sign Penn Murfee, Jackson Stephens To Major League Deals

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The Braves announced the signings of relievers Penn Murfee and Jackson Stephens to one-year split deals. A split contract means the player would be paid at differing rates for time spent in the majors versus Triple-A. Both pitchers rejoin Atlanta’s 40-man roster. The team still has seven openings on the 40-man on the heels of an active non-tender deadline.

Murfee and Stephens were each dropped from the roster within the past couple weeks. Atlanta had cut Murfee loose at the non-tender deadline. Stephens hit the open market not long before that after going unclaimed on outright waivers.

The Braves had just snagged Murfee off waivers a few days before cutting him loose. The 29-year-old righty has 80 games of major league experience, all of which have come with the Mariners over the past two seasons. Leaning heavily on a sweeping slider, Murfee has posted strong results. He owns a 2.70 ERA in 83 1/3 innings, striking out nearly 28% of batters faced. He has found success against hitters of either handedness.

Murfee’s season was unfortunately cut short in June. The 29-year-old underwent surgery to repair a UCL tear in his elbow. He’ll miss a good portion of next season as a result. There’s no injured list during the offseason, explaining Seattle’s decision to move on despite his strong body of work. The Braves have enough roster space to give Murfee a spot, at least for the time being. If he sticks on the roster for the rest of the offseason, they could place him on the 60-day injured list whenever they need a 40-man spot from the start of Spring Training onward.

Stephens, 29, has spent the past two seasons in the Atlanta organization. The righty logged more big league action in 2022, when he turned in a 3.69 ERA through 53 2/3 frames. He didn’t see as much time this past season, tallying only 12 MLB innings over five appearances in September. Stephens worked to a 3.28 ERA with a strong 26% strikeout rate across 24 2/3 innings with Triple-A Gwinnett.

Since he is out of minor league options, he’d have to open next season on the active roster or again be exposed to waivers. Stephens would have the right to elect free agency if the Braves successfully passed him through waivers unclaimed. Since he has less than five years of service time, he’d have to forfeit his guaranteed salary to become a free agent. By signing him to a split deal that locks in an undisclosed amount of money for whatever time he spends in Triple-A, the Braves increase their chance of retaining Stephens as non-roster depth in the event they try to run him through waivers at some point.

Jeff Passan of ESPN reported that Murfee was returning to the Braves on a major league deal shortly before the club announcement.

Orioles To Hire Drew French As Pitching Coach

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The Orioles are hiring Drew French to be their new pitching coach, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com. French had previously been working as the bullpen coach in Atlanta.

French, 39, began his coaching career in college ball, serving various roles for Concordia University Texas, University of Alabama, Florida International University and Lee University. He was hired by the Astros in 2016 and worked in the minor leagues of that organization until getting hired as Atlanta’s bullpen coach prior to the 2021 season.

For the past three seasons, the Orioles have had Chris Holt working both as director of pitching and as pitching coach. He had the former role one year earlier, developing individualized pitching plans for both major league and minor league pitchers. But he also jumped into the dugout as pitching coach starting with the 2021 campaign. Perhaps the dual role was a bit much, as it was reported about a month ago that Holt would continue serving as director of pitching but not as pitching coach, with French now taking over in Brandon Hyde’s dugout. O’s general manager Mike Elias and Holt were both with the Astros prior to coming to Baltimore, their time in that organization overlapping with that of French.

This move will give Atlanta another vacancy to fill, with three recent departures. Third base/infield coach Ron Washington was named the manager of the Angels and later brought first base/outfield coach Eric Young Sr. with him to join his staff with the Halos.

Braves, White Sox Have Discussed Dylan Cease Trade

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The Braves are among the teams in ongoing trade talks with the White Sox regarding right-hander Dylan Cease, reports USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Atlanta had been connected to a pair of notable free agent starters, Aaron Nola and Sonny Gray, but Nola re-signed in Philadelphia last week and Gray is reportedly wrapping up a deal with the Cardinals today.

With their ostensible top two free-agent targets off the board, it’s not a surprise to see the Braves being more prominently connected to the trade market. Cease’s White Sox are generally open for business on the heels of a catastrophic 2023 season that led to the firing of longtime baseball ops executives Rick Hahn and Kenny Williams. Assistant GM Chris Getz has since been elevated to the GM’s chair, and Getz plainly stated following the season that there are no untouchables on his roster. Cease, with two remaining years of club control, is among the likelier and most appealing trade candidates Getz has at his disposal.

Cease, 28 next month, was the American League Cy Young runner-up in 2022 but had a down season in 2023 — one of the myriad factors which contributed to the disastrous season on Chicago’s south side. His 2022 campaign featured 184 frames of 2.20 ERA ball with a dominant 30.4% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate, but that version of Cease appeared far too infrequently for the Sox’s liking in 2023. This past season saw the righty post a pedestrian 4.58 earned run average in 177 innings, showing diminished fastball velocity (95.8 mph, down from 96.9 mph a year prior) and a lesser strikeout rate (27.3%).

[Related: Looking for a Match in a Dylan Cease Trade]

Cease made a nominal improvement in his walk rate (10.1%), but virtually every other aspect of his profile backed up in ’23. His opponents’ average exit velocity and hard-hit rates exploded, jumping from 86.8 mph and 31.2% in 2022 to 90 mph and 41.5% in 2023. Both his swinging-strike and opponents’ chase rate dropped sharply as well, and Cease allowed an average of 0.97 homers per nine frames after yielding 0.76 HR/9 in 2022. He had some obvious struggles due to the poor defense behind him, with a career-high .330 average on balls in play (up from .260 the previous year), but that alone is not the driving force behind his struggles. Some of the BABIP spike was likely of his own doing anyhow; the uptick in hard contact he yielded certainly contributed to more balls finding their way through an already porous defense.

Although Cease’s 2023 season wasn’t a particularly strong year in terms of run-prevention, he still boasts well above-average velocity and bat-missing capabilities. Fielding-independent metrics (3.72 FIP, 4.10 SIERA) felt he was better than that lackluster ERA, even if he wasn’t as sharp as he was in 2022. He’s also proven himself a durable and reliable arm, as he’s made a full slate of starts in each of the past four seasons. Add in a reasonable $8.8MM projected salary from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, and it’s abundantly clear that Cease still possesses plenty of trade value. Consider that Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, a pair of innings eaters in their late 30s who don’t have the same upside as Cease’s 2022 campaign, signed for $11MM and $12MM, respectively, with the Cardinals. Cease’s projected $8.8MM salary is a clear bargain — particularly with another year of arbitration set to follow.

As things stand, the Atlanta rotation projects to consist of Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Bryce Elder, with a fifth-spot competition headlined by AJ Smith-Shawver, Dylan Dodd and (eventually) a returning Ian Anderson, who underwent Tommy John surgery early in the 2023 season. The Braves have prioritized adding a playoff-caliber arm to that group, both to safeguard against injury for the top of the rotation and also to protect against the potential departure of Fried, who’ll be a free agent following the season. Cease would accomplish both of those goals.

In many ways, a trade is the more sensible route for the Braves to go in terms of their rotation need anyhow. Atlanta’s projected payroll is already just shy of $207MM, per Roster Resource, but their luxury-tax obligations are far more consequential. The Braves project at around $241MM of luxury considerations, which already has them north of the $237MM luxury tax barrier. This is the second straight year they’ll be paying the luxury tax, so they’ll be penalized at a 30% rate for the first $20MM by which they exceed the tax and a 42% rate for the next $20MM. Signing a free agent like Nola or Gray would’ve come with around $7-9MM in luxury penalties this year — on top of the player’s actual salary. And, since the Braves are set up to be third-time payors in 2024, they’d be facing even steeper tax percentages next season.

Cease, of course, will come with those same penalties, but a 30% tax on his projected $8.8MM salary would bring the total outlay for acquiring him (speaking strictly financially) to around $11.5MM — a far more palatable price point than the free-agent market has to offer. Atlanta would also have the offseason to explore a possible extension with Cease — an Atlanta-area native (Milton, Ga.). The Braves have had plenty of success both acquiring and extending players with local ties, be it through the draft or through trades.

The Braves’ farm system has been stripped down by previous trades to acquire names like Matt Olson, Sean Murphy and several relievers (Joe Jimenez, Pierce Johnson, Aaron Bummer, Raisel Iglesias). They still have some appealing young talent, particularly in the upper minors or even some young big leaguers who’ve already gotten their feet wet. Smith-Shawver, Dodd and infielder Vaughn Grissom, for instance, would all hold appeal to the White Sox (and to other potential trade partners with pitching to peddle). The Sox and Braves already lined up on one swap this offseason, with Chicago sending the aforementioned lefty reliever Bummer to Atlanta.

Atlanta figures to face steep competition with regard to Cease, who offers one of the most tantalizing blends of raw talent, affordable salary and remaining club control on this offseason’s trade market. MLBTR ranked Cease sixth on our original list of the offseason’s top 25 trade candidates.

The Dodgers are already known to be interested, and just about any other team in need of starting pitching figures to check in — particularly those that may not want to spend top-of-the-market dollars to augment their starting staffs in free agency. That group could include the Reds, Pirates, D-backs, Padres and Orioles, to list a speculative few.

Braves Sign Andrew Velazquez, Ben Bowden To Minors Contracts

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The Braves have signed infielder Andrew Velazquez, and left-hander Ben Bowden to minor league contracts, as per both players’ MLB.com profile pages.  For Velazquez, it’s a return to the organization, as he elected free agency after being outrighted off the Braves’ 40-man roster at the start of November.

His trip through the market will now take him back to Atlanta, as Velazquez is still seeking his first big league appearance in a Braves uniform.  The Braves claimed Velazquez off waivers from the Angels in early September but he played exclusively at Triple-A Gwinnett, as Atlanta never had an injury situation develop that would’ve gotten Velasquez a look on the Major League roster.

This same type of depth role probably awaits Velazquez in 2024, though since the Braves dealt Nicky Lopez to the White Sox, Velazquez might have a better shot at claiming a bench spot.  Both glove-first players, Lopez is projected for a $3.9MM arbitration salary and Velazquez $740K, though due to the non-tender, Velazquez isn’t on any kind of guaranteed salary as a minor league signing.

The 29-year-old Velazquez has appeared in each of the last six Major League seasons, hitting .189/.244/.293 over 624 plate appearances.  Most of that action (349 PA) came with the Angels in 2022, when Velazquez ended up assuming mostly everyday shortstop duties when David Fletcher fell out of favor with the team.  While he didn’t produce anything at the plate, Velasquez was a big help on defense, with +11 Defensive Runs Saved, +3 Outs Above Average, and a +3.0 UZR/150 in 906 innings at shortstop.

However, his defensive numbers were all deep into the minuses over 233 1/3 innings last year, as Velazquez appeared in only 54 games and spent most of 2023 in Triple-A.  It could be just a small sample size issue, though given Velazquez’s lackluster offense, he needs to be at least an above-average glove to get him any chance of sticking as a big league backup.  In terms of versatility, Velasquez has played mostly shortstop, with some time at second base and center field, and a handful of appearances at third base and left field earlier in his career.

Bowden’s MLB resume consists of 35 2/3 relief innings over 39 appearances with the Rockies in 2021.  A second-round pick for Colorado in the 2016 draft, Bowden has posted a lot of strikeouts during his minor league career, yet also a lot of walks and home runs.  Spending most of his minor league time in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League hasn’t helped in that regard, though Bowden also gave up eight homers in 52 1/3 innings pitching with the Phillies’ Triple-A affiliate in 2023 (with a 4.64 ERA, 32.2% strikeout rate, and 13.6% walk rate).

The Phillies, Giants, and Rays have all gotten looks at Bowden after Tampa first claimed him off waivers from the Rockies in April 2022, so the southpaw’s ability to miss bats is still a point of interest for clubs.  Atlanta now becomes the latest team to see if Bowden can harness his control enough to become a viable option for the Major League bullpen.

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