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Managers & Top Front Office Executives On Expiring Contracts

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Several teams don’t publicize contract details for their top front office executives or even for their managers, so this list of skipper and execs (any head of a baseball operations department, whether titled as a president of baseball ops, general manager, chief baseball officer, etc.) entering the final year of their deals may not be entirely complete or accurate.  Still, since MLBTR so often focuses on players entering their “contract year,” this post provides a rough outline of which notable team personnel may be feeling some extra pressure as their own deals may be close to expiring.

It is quite possible some of these names may have already quietly signed extensions weeks or months ago, or will sign new deals during Spring Training once clubs turn their attention away from offseason roster-building.  A shorter-term extension may not necessarily indicate much extra job security, as some teams tack an extra year (or at least a club option) onto an executive or managerial contract just to avoid the appearance of that person entering a lame-duck year.  Of course, even a longer contract is no guarantee of job security, as a rough season can instantly put a manager or a front office on the hot seat.

As always, thanks to Cot’s Baseball Contracts for reference information on some of these contract terms.

Angels: Ron Washington is already heading into the final season under contract, as he signed only a two-year deal to manage the Halos in November 2023.  While the Angels were only 63-99 last season, it could hardly be considered Washington’s fault given the subpar state of the roster.  Expectations will be higher in 2025 since the team has been aggressing in adding talent this winter, and since GM Perry Minasian got a contract extension last August, Los Angeles might also look to add a year onto Washington’s deal to at least keep him on line with the guaranteed portion of Minasian’s new contract.  It should be noted that Washington turns 73 this coming April, so he might also prefer to just take things year-to-year if he has any thoughts about retirement.

Astros: Dana Brown is entering his third season as Houston’s GM, and the terms of his contract weren’t made public when he was hired in January 2023.  It is possible Brown might only be working on a three-year deal since his predecessor James Click also received just a three-year commitment, though Click was hired in the singular aftermath of the Astros’ sign-stealing scandal.  This probably isn’t a situation to monitor too closely since the Astros have kept winning during Brown’s tenure, with the caveat that owner Jim Crane and his advisors are known to weigh heavily on baseball operations decisions.  Click was let go within days of winning a World Series due to reported acrimony with Crane, but there hasn’t been any indication of any heat between Crane and Brown.

Athletics: Mark Kotsay’s initial contract covered the 2022-24 seasons, and the A’s picked up Kotsay’s 2025 club option over a year ago.  GM David Forst said in October that “there’s no one I would rather have managing this team,” and that Kotsay “wants to be here,” though there hasn’t been any public word about any extension talks.  As comfortable as Kotsay seems with the organization, it is possible he might be willing to let the season play out and then explore his options, if he has any uncertainty over continuing to manage the A’s through their stint in West Sacramento before their planned move to Las Vegas for the 2028 season.  While no public details were revealed about Forst’s latest contract, the GM has obviously signed some kind of extension since his last deal expired after the 2023 season, and said in November that “I’ve been here for 25 years.  There’s not a thought that I wouldn’t be in this for the long run.”

Blue Jays: Manager John Schneider is entering the last guaranteed season of his three-year contract, as the Blue Jays hold a club option on Schneider for 2026.  It is fair to guess that the Jays might not exercise that option too far in advance, as there is widespread speculation that another disappointing season (or even a slow start) will cost Schneider his job.  The same could be true of general manager Ross Atkins, even though Atkins is under contract through 2026.  Team president Mark Shapiro is also entering the final season of his five-year contract, and while Shapiro’s focus has been more towards bigger-picture projects like Rogers Centre’s renovations, his possible departure might also trigger a larger overhaul unless the Jays turn things around on the field in 2025.

Braves: Manager Brian Snitker is entering the last year of his contract, so the Braves might well look to tack at least one more season onto Snitker’s deal this spring.  Snitker has led Atlanta to the postseason in each of the last seven seasons, highlighted by the team’s World Series victory in 2021.  He has stuck to just shorter-term deals and extensions during his tenure, which is probably due more to his age (Snitker turned 69 in October) than any dissatisfaction on the organization’s part, so no change seems imminent in the Braves dugout.

Cardinals: John Mozeliak’s exit plan is already in place.  The longtime head of the St. Louis front office is stepping down after the 2025 season, with Chaim Bloom already inked to a long-term contract to become the Cardinals’ next president of baseball operations.

Cubs: The Cubs have posted 83-79 records in each of the last two seasons, but they still haven’t reached the postseason during Jed Hoyer’s four-year tenure as president of baseball operations.  2025 is the last year of Hoyer’s original five-year contract, and acquiring Kyle Tucker (who is a free agent next winter) in a big-ticket trade might indicate that Hoyer is feeling some heat to win as soon as possible.  It can be argued that Hoyer has been somewhat hamstrung by ownership’s reluctance to spend at the top of the market, but that might also indicate that ownership could be considering hiring a PBO with more experience in building contenders on limited budgets.

Dodgers: Reports surfaced earlier today that the Dodgers are planning to work out an extension with Dave Roberts, as the skipper is entering the last season of his last three-year extension with the club.  It comes as no surprise that L.A. wants to retain Roberts in the wake of the team’s second World Series title during his tenure, and it stands to reason that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is also a candidate for a new deal, perhaps regardless of the terms of his last agreement.  Friedman came to the Dodgers on a five-year deal in October 2014, then signed an extension of an unknown length in November 2019.  If that next contract was another five-year pact, Friedman is a technically free agent right now, but there has no zero indication that Friedman (who has been as busy as ever in bolstering the Dodgers roster this winter) is going anywhere.

Guardians: This is a speculative entry since it has been well over a decade since Chris Antonetti’s contract terms were publicly reported.  Even if he is approaching the end of his current deal, there hasn’t been any sense that the Guardians are planning a front office change, especially not in the wake of another AL Central crown and a trip to the ALCS.  Antonetti has been a member of Cleveland’s front office since 1999, and in his current role as president of baseball operations since October 2015.

Mariners: Jerry Dipoto has been extended twice since the M’s first hired him in September 2015, and his last extension in September 2021 was a multi-year deal of unspecified length.  It is therefore possible this could be Dipoto’s final season under contract as Seattle’s president of baseball operations, unless another extension has been signed in the last three-plus years.  Despite four straight seasons of 85 or more wins, the Mariners reached the playoffs just once in that span, as a lack of hitting has hampered the team over the last two years in particular.  It remains to be seen if ownership is okay with just being competitive (or, as Dipoto infamously put it, winning “54 percent of the time“) or if any impatience is growing over the Mariners’ difficulty in truly breaking through as a contender.  The Mariners were sparked to a 21-13 record down the stretch after manager Dan Wilson was hired last August, so it could be that the managerial change (and a change of hitting coaches) is what was needed to get the M’s back on track, but Dipoto and Wilson could both face pressure if Seattle again falls short of postseason baseball.

Orioles: Mike Elias has been Baltimore’s GM for six seasons, though his contract terms haven’t been made public at any point during his tenure.  Manager Brandon Hyde signed a three-year deal when first hired prior to the 2019 season, and he has signed at least one or perhaps two extensions since, leaving his contract status a bit of a mystery.  This is another situation where job security probably isn’t an issue, as the Orioles have come out of their rebuild to reach the playoffs in back-to-back years, even if the club has yet to record even a single postseason win in that span.  New owner David Rubenstein is eager to win but hasn’t shown any inclination to changing the leadership structure since he bought the Orioles earlier this year.

Pirates: Ben Cherington has now completed five full seasons as the Buccos’ general manager, so he either signed a somewhat unusually long contract when first hired, or he has already inked one extension that has escaped public attention.  Pittsburgh fans are impatiently waiting for the first winning season of Cherington’s tenure, as the team has flirted with contention in each of the last two years before finishing with identical 76-86 records.  Paul Skenes has at least emerged as the crown jewel of the Pirates’ lengthy rebuild process, so regardless of Cherington’s contract terms, it doesn’t appear as though he is in any danger of being fired.

Rangers: Bruce Bochy’s return to managing saw him sign a three-year contract with Texas, so 2025 represents the final year of that deal.  Bochy turns 70 in April but didn’t give any hints about retiring when speaking to reporters at the end of the season.  A second straight losing season might change the equation either on Bochy’s end or on the front office’s end, but the Rangers’ 2023 World Series title (to say nothing of Bochy’s three previous rings as the Giants’ manager) has naturally brought him a lot of leeway within the organization.  Both sides might prefer to go year-to-year just to maintain flexibility, but it wouldn’t be surprising if Bochy soon gets another year added to his contract.

Rockies: Bud Black has signed three straight one-year extensions to remain as Colorado’s manager, and past reports have indicated that Black is on something of an unofficial year-to-year rolling contract with the organization.  It is perhaps notable that Black’s most recent deal wasn’t finalized until this past October, whereas his previous two extensions were completed prior to the start of the seasons.  This might indicate that ownership and/or Black himself are starting to think harder about continuing the relationship in the wake of six straight losing seasons, even despite the Rockies’ well-known penchant for staying loyal to long-term employees.  The same logic could extend to GM Bill Schmidt, though Schmidt’s contract terms haven’t been known since he was elevated to the full-time general manager position in October 2021.

Royals: Matt Quatraro is entering the final guaranteed year of his initial three-year contract as manager, though the Royals have a club option on his services for the 2026 season.  J.J. Picollo has also completed two full seasons as the team’s general manager since being elevated to top of Kansas City’s baseball ops ladder in September 2022, though his contract status in the wake of that promotion wasn’t known.  Regardless, it doesn’t seem like either is going anywhere, and extensions could be in order since the Royals enjoyed an 86-win season and a return to the playoffs last year, including a wild card series win over the Orioles.

Tigers: Likewise, Detroit is also coming off a playoff appearance and a wild card series victory, as a magical late-season surge left the Tigers just one game short of the ALCS.  It is therefore safe to assume that president of baseball operations Scott Harris has plenty of job security, and while his contract terms aren’t known, it is probably safe to assume Harris received more than a three-year guarantee when he was hired in September 2022.

Twins: Some larger-scale changes could be afoot in Minnesota since the Pohlad family is exploring selling the Twins, and some shuffling in the front office has already taken place, with president of baseball ops Derek Falvey also becoming the president of business operations and Jeremy Zoll replacing Thad Levine as general manager.  Falvey’s previous deal was up after the 2024 season so obviously he signed an extension, but while manager Rocco Baldelli’s previous extension is known to have run through at least the end of the 2025 campaign, it is unclear if the coming season is the final year of that deal.  If Baldelli is indeed heading into a lame-duck year, the ownership situation might prevent the skipper from getting at least another season added to his deal, just so a new owner could potentially have a clean slate in evaluating things once they take over the team.

White Sox: This is more of a speculative entry, just because Chris Getz’s contract terms weren’t released when he was named Chicago’s general manager in August 2023.  A GM wouldn’t normally be considered to be on the hot seat so soon after being hired, nor are immediate results expected since the White Sox are quite obviously going through a hefty rebuild.  While nobody expected the Sox to contend in 2024, however, there’s a difference between just being a losing team and having a league-record 121 losses.  Another embarrassment of a season might give owner Jerry Reinsdorf second thoughts about Getz’s stewardship of the rebuild effort, or the possibility exists that Reinsdorf could sell the team, which should shake the organization up entirely.

Yankees: Aaron Boone quieted some of his critics when the Yankees both returned to the postseason, and captured the first AL pennant of Boone’s seven-year stint as the Bronx manager.  This result led the Yankees to exercise their club option on Boone’s services for 2025, and while no negotiations had taken place about a longer-term deal as of early November, it stands to reason that some talks will take place before Opening Day.  Then again, Boone’s current deal wasn’t signed until after he’d already completed the final season his previous contract, so it could be that the Yankees will again play wait-and-see.  There isn’t much sense that Boone is in jeopardy, and while expectations are always high in New York, ownership’s loyalty to Boone through some relative lean years would make it unusual if he was let go so soon after a World Series appearance.

Latest On Nolan Arenado

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It has been about two weeks since Nolan Arenado used his no-trade clause to veto a proposed deal that would’ve seen the veteran third baseman go from the Cardinals to the Astros.  The next step in the Cards’ efforts to trade Arenado remain unclear, as The Athletic’s Will Sammon and Katie Woo report that “there has been minimal traction on Arenado’s front since the Astros deal fell through.”

The lack of activity isn’t exactly surprising given how many factors complicate any potential deal.  The Rockies are covering $10MM of the remaining $74MM owed to Arenado over the last three years of his contract, and some deferred money involved in the contract reportedly makes Arenado’s remaining salary worth $60MM in present-day money.  That’s still a big chunk of change that the Cardinals are looking to mostly shed from their payroll, leaving a fairly limited number of possible suitors who have both payroll space and a need at third base.

To the latter point, Arenado has indicated a willingness to change positions, as his agent Joel Wolfe told reporters during the Winter Meetings.  Arenado is ultimately in the driver’s seat in these negotiations due to his no-trade protection, and past reports have indicated that he would okay a deal to the Phillies, Mets, Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers, or Padres, though it appears this list of preferred destinations is somewhat fluid.

In fact, Houston was on an initial version of that list, as Woo and Chandler Rome wrote earlier this month.  The Astros’ trade of Kyle Tucker just a few days before the proposed Arenado trade reportedly gave him pause about going to Houston, which is why he invoked his no-trade clause at the time.  However, the door wasn’t entirely closed on a potential deal, as Sammon and Woo write that Arenado “was willing to revisit the Astros after further clarity developed in his market (namely, Alex Bregman signing).”

The Astros ended up moving on from both Arenado and Bregman, as they instead signed Christian Walker as their new everyday first baseman, thus pushing Isaac Paredes (acquired in the Tucker deal with the Cubs) across the diamond as the new regular third baseman.  Even with his former team now out of the running, Bregman is still garnering plenty of interest, as such clubs as the Tigers, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Phillies, and Mets have all been linked to him this winter.  Reports have been somewhat mixed about the Yankees’ interest in either Arenado or Bregman, as the primary hold-up in Arenado’s case being New York’s unwillingness to take on the bulk of his remaining salary.

The overlap between Bregman’s market and Arenado’s reported trade preference list is likely why Arenado’s situation hasn’t much changed in the last couple of weeks, as it might take Bregman signing to spark renewed interest in teams returning to trade talks with the Cardinals.  If Arenado can’t be traded at all, St. Louis could simply bring him back for the coming season and perhaps explore deals later — even as early as the trade deadline, as a hot start from Arenado could help erase any worries a suitor might have about his average offensive numbers from the last two seasons.

Keeping Arenado even for the short term doesn’t solve the Cardinals’ desire to cut payroll, however, so Sammon and Woo write the Cards would then likely put a better emphasis on trading a starting pitcher to save some money.  Sonny Gray has indicated he isn’t going to waive his own no-trade protection and Andre Pallante is still in his arbitration-eligible years, leaving Miles Mikolas (owed $16MM in 2025), Steven Matz ($12.5MM) or Erick Fedde ($7.5MM) as the top trade chips.  It seems likely that St. Louis would be open to moving Mikolas or Matz with or without an Arenado trade, though Sammon and Woo note that the Cardinals would prefer to keep Fedde until closer to the deadline, if they move him at all.

Astros, Miguel Castro Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Astros are in agreement with reliever Miguel Castro, as first reported by Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Ari Alexander of KPRC 2 specifies that it’s a minor league contract with a non-roster Spring Training invite. Castro, a client of Premier Talent Sports and Entertainment, would lock in a $1.5MM base salary if he makes the MLB roster, according to Alexander.

Castro, who turned 30 last week, is aiming to pitch his way onto an MLB roster for an 11th straight year. The well-traveled righty has suited up for six different teams. Castro carries a 4.20 earned run average in nearly 500 MLB innings. He’d generally posted an ERA in the low-4.00s, including a 4.31 mark through an NL-high 75 appearances for the Diamondbacks in 2023. That triggered a $5MM vesting option for the ’24 season.

That didn’t work out well for Arizona. Shoulder inflammation sent Castro to the injured list midway through April. He was shelved until the All-Star Break. Castro made 11 appearances and surrendered nine runs over 13 2/3 innings. Arizona designated him for assignment just before the trade deadline. They released him at the start of August. Castro spent the rest of the season in free agency.

Houston has a thin relief group that should give Castro a real chance to earn a roster spot out of camp. Josh Hader, Bryan Abreu and (barring a late-offseason trade) Ryan Pressly will be at the back end. Tayler Scott is out of options and pitched well enough to lock down a middle relief job. That leaves as many as four spots up for grabs. Even if the Astros bring in a veteran on a low-cost MLB deal, Castro could vie with Shawn Dubin, Forrest Whitley and Kaleb Ort for low-leverage work.

Third Base Rumors: Bregman, Arenado, Yankees, Tigers, Astros

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With the Yankees in need of infield help, both Alex Bregman and Nolan Arenado have been linked to the club this offseason, with the idea being that one would become New York’s new third baseman and Jazz Chisholm Jr. would become the full-time second baseman.  However, during an edition of the YES Network’s “Yankees Hot Stove” show earlier this week, Jack Curry said that the Bronx Bombers weren’t in on either Bregman or Arenado, and pushed back on the idea that the Yankees ever had interest in trading for Arenado.

This runs counter to last week’s report (from MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand, John Denton, and Bryan Hoch) that the Yankees offered Marcus Stroman to the Cardinals as part of a trade package for Arenado, though St. Louis rejected the deal.  As always with seemingly contradictory offseason reports, the truth could lie somewhere in the middle.  Hypothetically, it could be that New York’s interest in Arenado was limited to this scenario that would’ve seen Stroman’s salary moved off the team’s books.

Whatever the depth of the Yankees’ interest in Arenado might be, it could be a moot point if Arenado himself isn’t interested in joining the team.  The Yankees aren’t one of the six clubs (the Angels, Dodgers, Padres, Phillies, Mets, Red Sox) Arenado is reportedly willing to waive his no-trade protection to join, and Arenado has already vetoed a proposed deal to the Astros.  There was speculation that New York’s deal with Paul Goldschmidt was made in part to entice Arenado to accept a trade to the Bronx to join his old teammate, yet Curry’s report seems to close the door on that possibility.

In addition to signing Goldschmidt and Max Fried, the Yankees have also traded for Cody Bellinger, Devin Williams, and Fernando Cruz, as GM Brian Cashman has aggressively reloaded the roster after Juan Soto left to sign with the Mets.  Even with some holes left to be addressed, New York is projected (by RosterResource) for a luxury tax number of $303.2MM, and thus the team is already over the maximum penalty threshold of $301MM.

The Yankees could reduce their tax bill by trying to move Stroman or another unfavorable contract, yet the payroll situation might hint at why Arenado or Bregman aren’t (or no longer are) on the radar.  Signing Bregman would require a far higher investment than taking most or all of Arenado’s contract in a trade, plus since Bregman rejected Houston’s qualifying offer, the Yankees would need to give up two draft picks and $1MM in international bonus pool money.  Since the Bombers already paid that extra penalty to sign another qualified free agent in Fried, the club would very likely prefer to avoid further depleting its draft pool and bonus pool by adding Bregman.

If the Yankees are indeed out on Bregman, that leaves the Phillies, Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mets, and Tigers as teams known to have some level of interest in Bregman’s services this winter.  Evan Petzold of the Detroit Free Press shed a little more light on the Tigers’ link in the latest edition of the Days of Roar podcast, noting that “there has been an increase in the Tigers’ prioritization of Bregman” as the offseason has developed, with “more dialogue, more conversation” between the club and Bregman’s camp.

Heading into the offseason, Detroit was viewed as a logical landing spot for Bregman for multiple reasons — his past history with manager A.J. Hinch, the lack of long-term money on the Tigers’ books, and the perception that the Tigers were going to be aggressive in the wake of their Cinderella run to the ALDS last season.  The latter point hasn’t played out to date, as Alex Cobb’s one-year, $15MM deal represents the Motown team’s only major investment of the winter.

Bregman’s reported asking price of at least $200MM appears to be the hold-up, as the Tigers aren’t willing to spend to that level.  What remains unclear is if Detroit is willing to at least approach Bregman’s demands, or if the team is aiming lower overall.  Most of the free agents or trade targets publicly linked to the Tigers in rumors this winter (i.e. Goldschmidt, Carlos Santana, Walker Buehler, Kirby Yates, Erick Fedde, Steven Matz, Andrew Heaney, Kyle Gibson) are either already under contract on short-term deals, or would likely require only one- or two-year investments.  Apart from Bregman, Jack Flaherty and Ha-Seong Kim are the other free agents on the Tigers’ list of targets that would require bigger contracts, and even Kim’s situation is fluid due to the lingering uncertainty surrounding his shoulder surgery.

Bregman already turned down a reported six-year, $156MM offer from the Astros earlier this winter, which was the first step towards what now looks like the end of a reunion possibility between the third baseman and his longtime team.  Acquiring corner infielder Isaac Paredes in the Kyle Tucker trade left open the possibility that Bregman could still be re-signed and Paredes could play first base in Houston, but the Astros’ three-year, $60MM deal with first baseman Christian Walker has now addressed the team’s needs in the corner infield.

While not officially stating that the Astros were now out on Bregman, GM Dana Brown left things pretty clear by stating “Paredes is going to play third and Walker is going to play first” when speaking with reporters (including the Houston Chronicle’s Matt Kawahara) earlier this week.  Brown felt “the negotiations stalled” with Bregman’s camp, leaving the Astros in search of an alternative.

“I thought we made a really competitive offer and showed that we wanted [Bregman] back,” Brown said.  “But we had to pursue other options, we couldn’t just sit there.  We locked in Paredes early in that trade knowing that he could play third or first. And then when the opportunity to add another bat [Walker] came up, we just jumped on it.”

Astros Could Pursue Lefty-Batting Outfielder, Reliever

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The Astros have added a pair of talented right-handed bats to their lineup this offseason: third baseman Isaac Paredes and first baseman Christian Walker. However, they also parted ways with one of the premier left-handed hitters in the sport when they traded Kyle Tucker to the Cubs in exchange for Paredes, Hayden Wesneski, and Cam Smith. That means the ’Stros have a very righty-heavy offense; Yordan Alvarez is their only dangerous lefty bat. It also means Houston has a glaring hole in the outfield. Manager Joe Espada would prefer to scale back Alvarez’s playing time in the field next year (per Chandler Rome of The Athletic). That would leave Jake Meyers, Chas McCormick, Mauricio Dubón, and Taylor Trammell to play the outfield. It’s not hyperbole to say that could be one of the worst offensive outfields among contending teams.

With all that in mind, general manager Dana Brown told reporters (including Matt Kawahara of the Houston Chronicle) that he’s not finished adding to the roster. For one thing, he could still go after a left-handed hitting outfielder. Presumably, it won’t be one of the top remaining free agent bats, like the switch-hitting Anthony Santander or Jurickson Profar. Brown has downplayed the suggestion that he’s working under any strict payroll constraints. However, Chandler Rome recently said on the Foul Territory podcast, “From what I’m hearing, I don’t expect any more significant big-dollar additions.” That’s a speculative comment, but it’s informed speculation. To that point, Rome suggests the Astros would prefer to get back under the luxury tax in 2025. Currently, RosterResource puts them about $3MM above the first tax threshold. They are known to be looking to offload Ryan Pressly’s $14MM salary in a trade, but even a move like that wouldn’t give them enough flexibility to sign Santander or Profar without having to pay the luxury tax.

Less expensive outfield options for the Astros could include free agents Jesse Winker, Alex Verdugo, or David Peralta. They could also consider a reunion with Jason Heyward. Meanwhile, if they don’t bring in an outside reinforcement, Rome names Zach Dezenzo and Jacob Melton as two prospects to keep an eye on. Yet, neither is necessarily a strong solution. Dezenzo is right-handed and has very limited experience playing the outfield. Melton is a highly-regarded outfield prospect, but he struggled offensively at Triple-A in 2024. While he bats left-handed and has had success against right-handed pitching, his platoon splits against southpaws are so poor that he’ll have to take a big step forward before he becomes an everyday option for the Astros.

Turning to the pitching staff, Brown suggested he’s happy with his club’s rotation depth (per Kawahara). Framber Valdez, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, Luis Garcia, and Spencer Arrighetti will most likely make up the Opening Day rotation, while recent acquisition Wesneski offers insurance at Triple-A. However, the bullpen is an area where Brown could look to make an addition. The Astros arm barn was solid but unspectacular in 2024, and they have yet to make any moves to address the losses of Caleb Ferguson, Héctor Neris, and Seth Martinez. On top of that, all of those losses would pale in comparison to the potential loss of Pressly. The veteran right-hander has been a key cog in Houston’s bullpen for the past seven years. It’s understandable why the Astros are looking to trade him – he’s still making top closer money when he’s really more of a set-up man – but he’ll be hard to replace.

The Astros could pursue a similarly talented arm who will come with a slightly cheaper price tag, such as Chris Martin or A.J. Minter. Yet, that might not leave them with enough payroll left over to add an outfielder. Thus, they could prefer to bet on a cheaper option instead. Perhaps that’s a bounce-back candidate like Will Smith or Dylan Floro or an undervalued, high-upside arm like Danny Coulombe or Jalen Beeks.

Astros DFA Grae Kessinger

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After officially announcing the Christian Walker signing earlier today, the Astros have designated infielder Grae Kessinger for assignment to open a spot for Walker on the 40-man roster (per Chandler Rome of The Athletic).

Kessinger, 27, was Houston’s second-round pick in the 2019 draft. The grandson of six-time All-Star Don Kessinger, he showed off excellent bat-to-ball skills in college, hitting .330 with a .904 OPS in his junior year at Ole Miss. However, evaluators had concerns about his ability to keep up against major league pitching. There were also rumblings he wouldn’t be able to stick at shortstop. Indeed, Kessinger struggled at the plate over his first few years in the Astros farm system, and he played all around the infield as the organization looked to maximize his versatility.

After his promotion to Triple-A in 2023, Kessinger seemed to take a step forward at the plate. He improved his walk-to-strikeout ratio and put up an .832 OPS and a 107 wRC+. It was enough to earn him a call-up to the big league club that summer. However, he failed to make an offensive impact at the major league level, going 8-for-40 with 12 strikeouts, good for a .614 OPS and 73 wRC+ in 26 games.

Despite his big league struggles in 2023, Kessinger made the Astros’ Opening Day roster in 2024. Unfortunately, he continued to come up short against MLB pitching. In 25 plate appearances, he didn’t manage a single hit. He walked thrice, reached once on a hit-by-pitch, and struck out seven times. To make matters worse, he regressed at Triple-A as well. His OPS dropped by more than 100 points from the year before, while his wRC+ fell to a well-below-average 83. 

Considering all his struggles at the plate, it’s hardly surprising to see Kessinger DFA’d. However, he can still provide value with his versatility – he’s played all four infield positions at the MLB level – and there could certainly be a team that sees enough potential in the former second-round pick to claim him off of waivers. If not, the Astros will have the option to send him outright to the minors and keep him in the organization.

Astros Sign Christian Walker

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December 23: The Astros have officially announced Walker’s signing. According to Chandler Rome of The Athletic, the deal includes a limited no-trade clause and will pay Walker an even $20MM annually per season.

December 20: A new-look Astros club will have a new first baseman in 2025, as the team has reportedly agreed to terms on a three-year, $60MM contract with free agent Christian Walker. The CAA client’s deal is still pending a physical.

Walker’s deal with Houston seems to shut the door on the possibility of a reunion with Alex Bregman. Houston recently acquired Isaac Paredes from the Cubs as part of the trade sending Kyle Tucker to Chicago, and while Paredes could’ve played first base with Bregman in the fold, he’ll be slotted in at third base with Walker now on board. Similarly, this effectively eliminates any chances of Nolan Arenado landing in Houston — an outcome that was all but at the finish line before Arenado invoked his no-trade clause to nix the deal.

Walker, 34 in March, has been a target of the Astros for some time now, dating back to the trade deadline when was reportedly at the top of their wishlist. A deal didn’t get done then, obviously, but Houston still has a need at first base after their three-year deal with Jose Abreu almost immediately imploded on them. Houston first basemen — led by Abreu and Jon Singleton — turned in an awful .226/.291/.360 batting line on the season in 2024. Walker, meanwhile, hit .251/.335/.468 — almost an exact match for the .253/.333/.464 line he carries through 3171 plate appearances dating back to the 2019 season.

On top of his quality results at the plate, Walker has emerged as arguably the premier defensive first baseman in MLB. He’s won three straight Gold Glove Awards in the National League and leads all first basemen in Defensive Runs Saved (33) and Outs Above Average (39) over the past three seasons. Matt Olson (27) and Carlos Santana (20) are second in those respective metrics. Walker’s defensive excellence at his position has essentially been unmatched.

Both Walker and the recently acquired Paredes are strong fits for the Astros, given the short left field porch at the newly renamed Daikin Park. That’s more true of Paredes, who’s one of the game’s most dead-pull and prominent fly-ball hitters. Walker has more of an all-fields approach, but when isolating his splits on pulled batted balls, he ranks 15th among qualified hitters in fly-ball rate (32.2%). Put more simply, Walker may spray the ball around a bit more than Paredes, but when he does pull the ball, he lifts it far more often than the vast majority of big league hitters. For a right-handed hitter with plenty of pop in his bat, that should play quite nicely with a 314-foot left field porch.

It’s been a bull market for free agents this offseason, and Walker had accordingly been hoping to land a four-year deal. He’ll “settle” for a year less than that on a deal that aligns with early expectations. His three-year, $60MM deal is an exact match for our predicted contract back on MLBTR’s annual ranking of the offseason’s top 50 free agents.

The $20MM annual salary on the contract puts the Astros north of the luxury tax threshold for what would be a second straight season. RosterResource now projects them at $244MM of luxury obligations — $3MM north of the $241MM tier-one threshold for the coming season. Their bottom-line payroll will depend on how that $60MM is divided over the three years of the deal, but if it’s evenly distributed, Houston would be just over $225MM in terms of actual player salary. (The luxury tax is calculated separately and based on the average annual value of all the team’s contracts.)

It’s still possible the Astros could duck back under the tax threshold. They’re reportedly telling teams they don’t intend to trade top starter Framber Valdez, but they’ve been exploring the trade market for reliever Ryan Pressly, who’s set to earn $14MM in 2025. More speculatively, they could also gauge interest in backup catcher Victor Caratini and his $6MM salary, then turn that role over to Cesar Salazar, who hit well in Triple-A and the majors this past season.

Dropping back under the tax line, however, doesn’t appear to be any kind of mandate. Owner Jim Crane said earlier in the winter that he “had the wherewithal” to cross that line and match his 2024 levels of spending if the right scenario presented itself. At the time, few envisioned that would entail trading Tucker and letting Bregman walk, but the Astros have been averse to the types of long-term megadeals both players — Tucker in particular — are expected to command. Houston hasn’t given out a contract longer than Yordan Alvarez’s six-year, $115MM contract or Jose Altuve’s six-year, $157.5MM extension under Crane’s ownership, the latter also being the largest guarantee in franchise history.

As a result, the Astros will give out their second three-year deal to a mid-30s first baseman in the past three years. Houston signed the aforementioned Abreu to a $58.5MM deal in the 2022-23 offseason and will still be paying Abreu $19.5MM this coming season after releasing him at the contract’s halfway point. That deal was negotiated by Crane himself and senior advisor Jeff Bagwell, as it came in the lull between the team’s dismissal of former GM James Click and the hiring of current GM Dana Brown. Astros fans may feel some trepidation about another multi-year deal for a first baseman well past his 30th birthday, though it bears mentioning that Abreu was 36 in year one of his contract; Walker will be 36 in the final season of this deal.

Walker declined a $21.05MM qualifying offer from the D-backs at the end of the season. As such, he’ll cost the Astros their second- and fifth-highest picks in the 2025 draft, as well as $1MM of space from their league-allotted bonus pool for international amateur free agency. That’s the steepest penalty possible for signing a qualified free agent, but the Astros find themselves in that tier as a result of exceeding the luxury tax threshold in 2024. The fact that they exceeded the tax threshold also means they’d only receive a compensatory pick after the fourth round in the now-likely event that Bregman signs elsewhere.

As for the D-backs, they’ll receive a comp pick after the first round, because Walker’s agreement is for more than $50MM guaranteed. It’ll be a nice parting gift, but Walker’s production will be tough to replicate with in-house options. Former top-10 draft pick Pavin Smith hit well in 158 plate appearances last season, but that was his first big league success in parts of five seasons and came in a small sample. The Snakes can hope for a similar late-bloomer trajectory to the one taken by Walker, but odds are against that. They could look to affordable alternatives in free agency (e.g. Carlos Santana, Justin Turner, a Josh Bell reunion) or sift through a deep trade market of first base options that includes Yandy Diaz, Josh Naylor, Nathaniel Lowe and perhaps Triston Casas (though the asking price on Casas would be extreme and surely cost the D-backs some coveted young pitching).

Robert Murray of FanSided first reported that the two sides were in advanced talks and closing in on a deal. Jim Bowden of The Athletic and MLB Network Radio reported that an agreement was in place, pending physical. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the terms.

Nine Teams Exceeded Luxury Tax Threshold In 2024

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Major League Baseball finalized its luxury tax calculations for 2024. ESPN’s Jesse Rogers was first to report the list of payors, while Ronald Blum of the Associated Press reports the details. A record nine teams surpassed the $237MM competitive balance tax threshold. In a separate post, The Associated Press lists the finalized CBT numbers for all 30 teams.

The payments are as follows:

  • Dodgers: $103MM
  • Mets: $97.1MM
  • Yankees: $62.5MM
  • Phillies: $14.4MM
  • Braves: $14MM
  • Rangers: $10.8MM
  • Astros: $6.5MM
  • Giants: $2.4MM
  • Cubs: $570K

Teams pay escalating penalties for exceeding the threshold in consecutive seasons. The Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Phillies have all paid the tax in at least three straight years — subjecting them to the highest escalator fees. Texas and Atlanta are second-time payors. Houston, San Francisco, and the Cubs did not exceed the threshold in 2023 and are marked as first-time payors.

The Dodgers ($353MM), Mets ($348MM), and Yankees ($316MM) all had CBT numbers above $277MM, which marked the third tax bracket. All three teams will see their first-round pick in the 2025 draft dropped by 10 spots. Considering they each advanced at least as far as the LCS and the Dodgers won the World Series, those clubs won’t have any regrets about that penalty. Atlanta narrowly stayed below the $277MM threshold to avoid any impact on their draft.

Teams that paid the CBT are entitled to the lowest level of compensation for losing free agents who declined a qualifying offer. They receive a draft choice after the fourth round for each qualified free agent who walks. They’re charged the heaviest penalty — their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2025 and $1MM from their ’26 international bonus pool — for signing a qualified free agent from another team.

The Mets (Juan Soto), Yankees (Max Fried), Giants (Willy Adames), and Astros (Christian Walker) have already signed or agreed to terms with qualified free agents. The Mets (Luis Severino), Yankees (Soto), and Braves (Fried) have lost qualified free agents. Houston is likely to see Alex Bregman walk. The Mets (Pete Alonso, Sean Manaea) and Dodgers (Teoscar Hernández) still have unsigned qualified free agents of their own.

The top eight luxury payors were all clearly above the base threshold, while the three biggest spenders blew beyond every surcharge marker. The only source of CBT intrigue late in the season concerned the Cubs and Blue Jays, both of whom were hovering right around the tax line.

When it became clear that neither team would make the playoffs, they each attempted to dip below $237MM by shedding money via waivers. The Cubs were unsuccessful and landed around $239.9MM; Toronto dropped just below $234MM. The tax impact for the Cubs is negligible — a $570K bill is less than the cost of one player on a league minimum salary — but it places a higher penalty for signing qualified free agents and could incentivize them to stay under the threshold in 2025 to reset their status. Six of the nine payors made the postseason. Texas, San Francisco, and Chicago were the exceptions.

Last year, a then-record eight teams surpassed the CBT threshold. The Padres are the only team that was above the line in 2023 and got below it this year. San Diego finished with an approximate $228MM mark that ranked 11th in the majors — behind the nine payors and the Blue Jays. The Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Cardinals, and Angels were the other teams above the median in payroll. On the other side of the equation, the five bottom spenders were as follows: Athletics ($84MM), Rays ($107MM), Tigers ($110MM), Marlins ($122MM), and Pirates ($123MM).

The teams that exceeded the threshold have until January 21 to pay MLB. The first $3.5MM will be used to fund player benefits. Half the remaining money goes to players’ retirement accounts, while the other half is used for revenue sharing distribution from MLB to teams. Next year’s base threshold climbs to $241MM.

Christian Walker Reportedly Seeking Four-Year Deal

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Christian Walker has been a popular target in free agency thus far in the offseason, drawing interest not only from the incumbent Diamondbacks but also the Yankees, Mariners, Astros and Nationals, among other clubs. ESPN’s Jeff Passan writes that interested teams have been unwilling to extend their offers beyond three years but that Walker’s camp “would love to get a fourth year.”

Widespread interest in Walker is only logical. He’s been among the most underrated players in the sport for several seasons. The 33-year-old slugger’s .251/.335/.468 slash from 2024 is a near mirror image of the broader .253/.332/.464 line he carries in nearly 3200 plate appearances dating back to 2019. At the time, it would’ve seemed utterly nonsensical to think that the Diamondbacks would be able to successfully replace perennial All-Star Paul Goldschmidt with a journeyman waiver claim, but Arizona did just that and has been rewarded handsomely.

Not only has Walker been consistently productive at the plate — 13% better than average overall, including 20% better over the past three seasons — he’s emerged as one of the game’s best defenders at his position. Walker has won three straight Gold Gloves for his work at first base. Walker’s 33 Defensive Runs Saved over the past three seasons lead all big league first baseman by a wide margin. Matt Olson is second, at 27. Statcast is even more bullish, crediting Walker with 39 Outs Above Average — nearly double that of second-ranked Carlos Santana (20). He’s made only eight errors since 2022.

Quietly excellent as Walker has been, however, a four-year deal is a lofty ask when considering his age. He’ll turn 34 in March. As shown in MLBTR’s Contract Tracker, only four position players in the past decade have secured a four-year deal beginning in their age-34 season or later: Josh Donaldson (four years, $92MM with the Twins), Ben Zobrist (four years, $56MM with the Cubs), Nelson Cruz (four years, $57MM with the Mariners) and Victor Martinez (four years, $68MM with the Tigers. Donaldson’s deal, now almost five years old, is the most recent of the bunch. Of the four, only Cruz’s contract played out well.

Suffice it to say, four years would break any recent precedent for a position player of this age. Speculatively speaking, he could go the route some other veterans have in the past to secure the additional years they seek on longer-term deals: throw in (in this instance) the fourth year at a discounted rate. General expectations for Walker have been that he’ll command something in the vicinity of $20MM per year. If he were to tack on a fourth year at, say, $8-10MM, that’d get him his fourth season and also lower the luxury-tax hit for the signing club. For many of Walker’s reported suitors, that won’t be a factor, as they’re not CBT payors anyhow. For a team like the Yankees or Astros, it could prove significant.

Walker’s asking price is likely one of the reasons that the Yankees “appear increasingly likely to go with a more inexpensive option at first base,” as reported by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. The others include the qualifying offer that’d cost them an additional two draft picks (after already punting two for Max Fried) and the plethora of options available on the free agent market  (Santana, Justin Turner, Goldschmidt) and trade market (Josh Naylor, Yandy Diaz, Nathaniel Lowe).

Astros Telling Teams They Don’t Intend To Trade Framber Valdez

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The Astros are telling opposing teams they do not intend to trade left-hander Framber Valdez, writes Jeff Passan of ESPN. Houston’s ace had come up in trade rumors at the Winter Meetings.

In response to a question regarding the availability of Valdez and Kyle Tucker, general manager Dana Brown said he was willing to “listen on all the players.” That proved a precursor for the Tucker blockbuster, which dropped a few days later and subsequently lessened the financial pressure for the Astros to move Valdez. After the Tucker deal, Brown said that he didn’t anticipate trading Valdez but would continue listening to offers.

There could be semantics at play. Few players around the league are truly untouchable. There’s presumably some point at which an offer would compel them to consider moving Valdez. For now, however, it seems they’re unwilling to do so. The two-time All-Star is set to return to the top of a rotation that’ll also include Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco and likely Spencer Arrighetti. Righties Luis Garcia and Lance McCullers Jr. could be back by Opening Day, while J.P. France could return midseason. Hayden Wesneski, acquired in the Tucker trade, can compete for a rotation or multi-inning relief role.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Valdez for a $17.8MM salary during his final arbitration season. Brown said last week that there’d been no recent extension talks. The southpaw is trending towards walking in free agency on a nine-figure deal. While Houston didn’t want that to happen with Tucker, they were content to allow George Springer and Carlos Correa to depart as free agents. Alex Bregman could follow suit. They’d recoup a draft choice if Valdez walks after declining a qualifying offer, which he’d surely do if he enjoys a 2025 season that’s in line with his lofty standards. That’s less valuable than what they’d receive in trade, but they’re weighing that against the desire to win the AL West again in 2025.

Brown expressed optimism that the Astros would be able to take the division even if they traded one of Tucker or Valdez. The return package reflected that balance. Cam Smith immediately became the top prospect in a weak farm system, while Isaac Paredes and Wesneski jump right onto the MLB roster.

Valdez is coming off a 2.91 ERA showing across 176 1/3 innings. That marked his fourth consecutive year with an ERA south of 3.50. Valdez has finished in the top 10 in Cy Young voting for three seasons running. He has topped 175 frames in each of those years.

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