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Central Notes: Perez, Tellez, Jimenez, Kelly, O’Neill, Knizner

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Salvador Perez suffered a left hamstring strain while scoring a run in today’s 8-4 Royals victory over the Rays.  Perez scored from first base on a MJ Melendez double, but the extra effort was costly for the veteran catcher, and a trip to the injured list now seems likely.  The time lost will depend on the grade of Perez’s strain, and manager Matt Quartraro told MLB.com’s Anne Rogers and other reporters that the club will have more information on Monday.

An injury to Perez just adds to a nightmare of a season for the Royals, as they are a measly 27-67 after today’s win.  Perez is hitting .258/.299/.444 with 15 home runs over 345 plate apperances, translating to below-average (97 wRC+) overall offense for the 33-year-old backstop.  It represents a dropoff from Perez’s usual production, yet he remains one of the best bats on a Royals team that has almost entirely underachieved.  Melendez and Freddy Fermin seem likely to take over catching duties in the event of Perez hitting the IL, and if you’re wondering if the injury might impact Perez’s trade value, Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo already stated last month that Perez isn’t going anywhere.

More from the two Central divisions…

  • The Brewers were expecting Rowdy Tellez back from the 10-day IL this coming Tuesday, but the first baseman suffered another injury while shagging fly balls prior to today’s game.  As manager Craig Counsell told the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel’s Todd Rosiak and other reporters, Tellez was trying to make a catch when he caught his left ring finger between the seams of the outfield wall padding.  The result was a broken fingertip, a torn nail, and an estimated 3-4 more weeks on the injured list.  Tellez had been sidelined with forearm inflammation, and he was looking to rebound from a nasty slump that had dropped his numbers to .213/.285/.388 over 288 PA.  First base/DH was already expected to be a target area for the Brewers heading into the trade deadline, and Tellez’s extended absence now only increases the club’s need for some extra corner power.
  • Eloy Jimenez will be out of the White Sox lineup for at least “the next few days” due to a groin injury, manager Pedro Grifol told MLB.com and other media.  Jimenez had to make an early exit from today’s game due to the injury, and testing will determine the severity or if Jimenez might be headed for the 10-day IL.  The slugger already missed around three weeks earlier this season while recovering from an appendectomy, and a variety of injuries have limited Jimenez’s playing time over his five Major League seasons.  Over 259 PA for Chicago this season, Jimenez has 12 home runs and a .269/.313/.463 slash line.
  • In better injury news for the White Sox, Joe Kelly threw a bullpen session today and plans to return from the 15-day IL during the Sox/Mets series that begins on Tuesday, Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times tweets.  Kelly was placed on the IL due to elbow inflammation on July 5, so he’ll return after a minimal stint.  Secondary metrics indicate that Kelly is drastically outperforming his uninspiring 4.82 ERA, so some better bottom-line numbers over the next couple of weeks might turn Kelly into a trade chip for the White Sox at the deadline.
  • The Cardinals activated catcher Andrew Knizner off the 10-day IL today, and manager Oli Marmol told reporters (including Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch) that the club will continue to carry three catchers on the roster since it wants to see more of youngster Ivan Herrera.  It remains to be seen how the Cardinals will split the playing time between Willson Contreras, Knizner, and Herrera, but Knizner was the only member of the trio to see action in the Cards’ 8-4 win over the Nationals today.  In other St. Louis injury news, Tyler O’Neill might return from the IL on Tuesday if he emerges in good form after a Triple-A rehab game today.

Royals Place Amir Garrett On Release Waivers

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The Royals announced today that they have requested unconditional release waivers on left-hander Amir Garrett. The lefty had been designated for assignment last week, and will now officially become a free agent upon clearing.

Garrett struggled badly during his tenure with Kansas City, which began when he was traded to the Royals by the Reds in exchange for fellow lefty Mike Minor. Since then, Garrett has been a roughly league average reliever by the numbers, with a 4.39 ERA (96 ERA+) and a 4.16 FIP 87 appearances with the Royals. Garrett has been held back from being a stronger set-up option in these past two seasons thanks to serious control problems, with a 16.9% walk rate during his Royals tenure. Those issues have been magnified across 24 1/3 innings of work this season, as Garrett has allowed free passes at an even higher 17.9% rate. If not for an unsustainable 85.2% strand rate this season, Garrett’s strong 3.33 ERA this season would surely be significantly higher, as illustrated by his concerning peripherals (5.58 FIP, 5.05 SIERA).

Garrett had just over five years of major league service time entering the 2023 campaign, and any player with at least five years of service time has the right to reject an outright assignment without forgoing the remainder of his salary. Additionally, no club would have had interest in taking on the remainder of Garrett’s $2.65MM salary for the 2023 campaign when he could be had for no more than the prorated major league minimum if signed after he hits the open market. As such, the Royals’ decision to forgo outright waivers and simply release Garrett was little more than a formality.

Once Garrett officially clears waivers, he’ll be free to sign with any of the other 29 organizations in the league, which would only have to pay him a prorated portion of the major league minimum for the rest of the season, leaving the Royals on the hook for the remainder of his 2023 salary. While Garrett’s control problems are certainly glaring, as a lefty bullpen arm who had success back in 2019 and 2020 with the Reds, when he posted a 3.03 ERA in 90 appearances, he certainly could draw interest from rival clubs on a no-risk minor league deal with a club that thinks it can help Garrett reclaim his previous form.

Royals’ Josh Staumont To Undergo Thoracic Outlet Syndrome Surgery

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TODAY: Staumont will undergo thoracic outlet syndrome surgery, according to Anne Rogers (Twitter link).  It’s a big setback for Staumont, who will miss the rest of the season and face something of an uncertain recovery timeline, given the still-new nature of TOS procedures.  Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post recently wrote about the two different kinds (vascular and neurogenic) of TOS, and how vascular cases are by far the less-serious of the two, while neurogenic TOS surgery could be career-threatening.

JULY 14: The Royals announced today that left-hander Ángel Zerpa was reinstated from the 60-day injured list and optioned to Triple-A Omaha. To open a spot on the 40-man roster, right-hander Josh Staumont was sent the other way, transferred to the 60-day IL.

Staumont, 29, has been on the injured list since June 6 due to a neck strain. A couple of weeks ago, Anne Rogers of MLB.com reported that he suffered a setback and would require further testing. His current timeline isn’t known, but he’ll now be officially ineligible to return until 60 days from his initial IL placement, which rules him out until early August. He’s yet to begin a rehab assignment, so it doesn’t seem like he’s especially close to returning anyhow. The righty has an ERA of 4.01 in his career, striking out 26.2% of batters faced but walking 13%.

Zerpa, 23, suffered a shoulder injury during Spring Training and has been on the injured list for the entire season until this point. He was able to collect major league pay and service time for the past few months, crossing over the one-year mark in the process, but that will stop for the time being. He has 16 innings of major league experience from the previous two seasons with a 1.13 ERA in that small sample.

He was stretched out as a starter during his recent rehab assignment and will provide the club with some rotation depth. He has just one option year remaining and will burn that last option as soon as he spends 20 days on optional assignment here in 2023. If he’s not quickly recalled in the next few weeks, he’ll be out of options in 2024.

Royals Sign First-Round Pick Blake Mitchell

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The Royals have agreed to a deal with eighth overall pick Blake Mitchell, according to MLB Pipeline’s Jim Callis (via Twitter).  Mitchell will receive a $4.9MM bonus, below the $5,980,100 slot price attached to the eighth overall selection.

The 18-year-old Mitchell is a high schooler from Texas who had committed to LSU, but he’ll now forego college ball and start his pro career.  Mitchell and Kyle Teel (from the University of Virginia) were considered the two best catching prospects of this year’s draft class, and Mitchell was taken ahead of Teel on draft night, as Teel lasted until the Red Sox selected him with the 14th overall pick.  Mitchell was rated as the 14th-best prospect of the overall draft class by Pipeline, with Baseball America (15th), Keith Law (20th), Fangraphs (20th), and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel (29th) all giving somewhat varied first-round evaluations.

The pundits feel Mitchell needs to cut down on his strikeouts and improve his contact hitting in general, but his left-handed swing and approach hints at some quality power potential.  Defensively, Mitchell’s natural athleticism lends itself to pitch-blocking, and he has an outstanding throwing arm that will give pause to would-be basestealers.  The arm strength is no surprise since Mitchell was also an intriguing pitching prospect, and Pipeline’s scouting report felt he could have been selected as a pitcher alone before the end of the second round.  However, Mitchell will stick to catching, and he now projects as Kansas City’s long-term successor to Salvador Perez behind the plate.

The Most Alarming Aspect Of Royals’ Disappointing Season

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The Royals are much closer to the worst team in baseball than a playoff spot. While Kansas City wasn’t expected to make the postseason, there’s no question the organization envisioned better results than they had in the first half.

There are a number of reasons for the club’s underperformance. The most concerning theme for the organization has been the down years and/or injury issues for most of their top young talent. Kansas City expected to be further along in the rebuild by now. Instead, a lot of the players they’ve envisioned as a developing core have plateaued or gone backwards.

That’s not unanimously true. Bobby Witt Jr. has stolen 27 bases, connected on 14 home runs and taken a huge step defensively. Even with a modest .300 on-base percentage, he looks like the franchise shortstop the Royals wanted when selecting him with the 2nd overall pick in 2019. Rookie Maikel Garcia has taken over third base with plus exit velocities and strong defense.

Aside from the left side of the infield, the Royals’ young players have mostly underwhelmed, however.

Melendez, a 2nd-round selection in 2017, emerged as one of the sport’s top prospects with a 41-homer showing in the upper minors two years ago. The left-handed hitter connected on 18 longballs with a roughly average .217/.313/.393 line as a rookie in 2022. His power production has fallen off this year; he carries a meager .206/.289/.333 mark with six homers in 346 trips to the plate.

While Melendez walks a fair amount, he offsets that with big strikeout totals. He has gone down on strikes nearly 30% of the time this season. That puts a lot of pressure on him to hit for power, no small feat in one of the sport’s most pitcher-friendly home parks. Melendez has a huge 93 MPH average exit velocity and is making hard contact (95+ MPH) on over half his batted balls. There’s clearly power upside in there. He’s not in a great environment to maximize it and is striking out too frequently though.

Were Melendez catching every day, that offensive profile would be more acceptable. With Salvador Perez behind the dish, the Royals have deployed the youngster mostly in the corner outfield. Well below-average offense at a bat-first position means he’s playing at a worse than replacement level rate.

The Royals invested heavily in college pitching in the 2018 draft. Singer was the only member of the group who put together mid-rotation results, seemingly breaking out with a 3.23 ERA over 27 appearances last season. He’s gone in the opposite direction this year.

Over 18 starts, the Florida product is allowing 5.80 earned runs per nine across 94 2/3 innings. His strikeouts and grounders are both at career-worst levels. Singer’s strikeout rate has dropped over six percentage points to a modest 18.1% clip. His swinging strikes are down to a below-average 8.5% of his offerings.

Singer’s arsenal has backed up. His sinker is averaging 92.3 MPH, down a tick and a half from last year’s level. His career-long struggle to find a changeup is still showing up in his results against left-handed hitters. Southpaws have a .292/.373/.489 line in 250 trips to the plate this year.

Lynch, the 34th overall selection in the aforementioned college-heavy ’18 draft, has started 50 games in his MLB career. The 6’6″ southpaw has yet to find much success, posting a 5.10 ERA over parts of three seasons. His 4.18 mark through eight starts is a personal low, though he’s paired it with a few alarming underlying indicators.

Most notably, Lynch’s velocity has taken a step back. He’s averaging 92.7 MPH on his heater, down from the 94 MPH range in which he sat in 2021-22. A Spring Training rotator cuff strain could explain that dip, although Lynch’s velocity has fallen even as he’s gotten further removed from the season-opening injured list stint. He averaged a season-low 91.6 MPH on his four-seam during his final start headed into the All-Star Break.

With the drop in speed has come a corresponding hit to his strikeouts. The Virginia product has fanned under 16% of opposing hitters. It’s the lowest rate of his career, down nearly five points from last season. Lynch’s 11.7% swinging strike percentage is still solid, so he’s not losing whiffs on a per-pitch basis, but he’s had a tougher time finishing off at-bats.

Pasquantino’s disappointing year has been more about health than performance. His .247/.324/.437 line was down markedly from a huge .295/.383/.450 rookie showing, but even the diminished version of Pasquantino was one of Kansas City’s top hitters. Unfortunately, the 25-year-old tore the labrum in his right shoulder and underwent surgery last month. His season is finished after just 61 games.

Pasquantino’s injury has opened regular playing time for the 24-year-old Pratto. Like Melendez, the lefty-hitting first baseman emerged as a top prospect based on huge power production in the upper minors. His profile also comes with significant swing-and-miss concerns, which have resurfaced at the MLB level.

Pratto is hitting .246/.331/.388 with six homers in a career-high 257 plate appearances. That’s better than the bulk of the Kansas City lineup, league average offense by measure of wRC+. Yet he’s needed a .395 average on balls in play to keep that production respectable. He’s striking out at a 37.7% clip, the highest rate among players with 250+ trips to the plate. If he’s to be a long-term regular, especially at a bat-first position, he’ll need to put the ball in play more frequently.

By the time the Royals acquired Waters from the Braves almost exactly one year ago, the outfielder’s stock was well down from its peak level. The switch-hitter had been a borderline Top 50 prospect at one point in the Atlanta farm system, but mounting strikeout issues in the upper minors raised questions about his offense. The Royals were buying low to some extent, though they still relinquished the 35th overall pick in last year’s draft (which Atlanta subsequently used on high school righty JR Ritchie) for Waters.

Kansas City wouldn’t have given up a pick that high if they didn’t believe Waters still had a chance to be an everyday player. An offseason trade of Michael A. Taylor cleared a path to center field reps. Waters’ hopes of starting on Opening Day were dashed by a left oblique strain that cost him the first two months of the season.

Since returning, the 24-year-old has put up a .239/.293/.354 line over 37 games. He’s striking out an untenable 37.4% rate. Perhaps there’s some rust to be shaken off after the extended absence, but Waters’ early results aren’t offering much hope he’s on the verge of a breakthrough. Whether he’ll make enough contact to be a regular is still in question.

With Waters opening the season on the shelf, the 26-year-old Isbel got the Opening Day nod in center field. He has just a .210/.258/.355 line in 37 contests. Isbel is making the most contact of his career but not hitting many line drives, and his overall production closely matches last year’s .211/.264/.340 slash. The former 3rd-round selection has been viewed by most evaluators as a fringe regular, although he still ranked among K.C.’s top ten prospects at Baseball America each season from 2019-22. He looks better suited for fourth/fifth outfield duty than a starting role.

Massey, 25, showed some promise with a .243/.307/.376 line as a rookie late last season. He got the Opening Day nod at second base this year but hasn’t seized the job. The left-handed hitter has a .220/.277/.320 mark with four homers over 220 plate appearances. Opposing pitchers have punched him out 28.2% of the time. Massey is hitting the ball reasonably hard but chasing too many pitches outside the strike zone to post a decent on-base mark.

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Without much progress from most of their young players, the Royals haven’t had many silver linings. A 26-65 record would be an obvious disappointment regardless of how it was happening, but it’s made more so by the scarcity of controllable players asserting themselves as key pieces for the future. Aside from Witt and arguably Garcia, none of Kansas City’s early-mid 20s talent is staking a firm claim to an important role for next season.

The  primary focus for the next few weeks will be which veteran players get moved at the deadline, with closer Scott Barlow standing out as their top trade chip. Once August 1 passes, the final couple months will be about evaluation. Can any of their currently scuffling controllable players turn things around to head into the offseason with positive momentum to build upon?

White Sox Acquire Mike Mayers From Royals

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The White Sox have acquired right-hander Mike Mayers from the Royals, per Daryl Van Schouwen of the Chicago Sun-Times, with cash considerations heading in the other direction.

Mayers, 31, signed a minor league deal with the Royals in the winter and was deployed as a starter in Triple-A. He took the ball eight times for the Storm Chasers through the middle of May and posted a 6.88 ERA in 34 innings. He was selected to the Royals’ roster at that time and made six appearances, including two starts, for the big league club. He registered a 6.15 ERA through 26 1/3 innings before getting designated for assignment in the middle of June. He cleared waivers and accepted an outright assignment and has been back with Omaha in a relief role in recent weeks.

The Sox are 38-54 and seem destined to do some selling prior to the August 1 trade deadline. They’re only eight games back in the weak American League Central but they would have to leapfrog three different clubs to get to the top and are even further back in the Wild Card race. It’s been speculated by many observers that impending free agents will be shopped and Lucas Giolito was recently ranked the #1 trade candidate by MLBTR for that very reason. Other pitchers like Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly, Keynan Middleton, Mike Clevinger and Reynaldo López make some sense as trade candidates to varying degrees, with the club reportedly willing to deal just about any pitcher except for Dylan Cease.

If that indeed comes to fruition and the Sox ship out a few arms from their big league staff, they may need to turn to a few of their depth pitchers in the final months of the season. Mayers has mostly served as a reliever in his career but has also made a handful of starts, including this year, allowing him to potentially fill either role in the months to come. He has a career ERA of 5.21 in 262 2/3 innings dating back to 2016. If he gets selected back to the roster at any point, he is out of options but could be retained for 2024 via arbitration if the club so chooses.

Royals Designate Amir Garrett For Assignment

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The Royals announced a series of roster moves this morning. The club has reinstated left-hander Ryan Yarbrough from the 60-day injured list and recalled infielder Samad Taylor from Triple-A Omaha. Yarbrough is slated to start this afternoon’s game against the Guardians. In corresponding moves, left-hander Amir Garrett has been designated for assignment while outfielder Edward Olivares was placed on the 10-day IL (retroactive to July 8) with a mild left oblique strain.

It will be Yarbrough’s first start since he was struck in the face by a line drive off the bat of A’s first baseman Ryan Noda back in May. In all, Yarbrough missed just over two months with the resulting injuries. It had been a difficult start to the season for Yarbrough even before he suffered the injury. The 31-year-old lefty owns a 6.15 ERA, 28% worse than league average, with a 5.19 FIP in 26 1/3 innings of work for the Royals this season across ten appearances (three starts). For now, Yarbrough is ticketed for a return to the rotation, but the lefty has swung between the rotation and the bullpen all throughout his career, with 75 of his 137 career appearances in the big league coming in relief.

Taylor, meanwhile, made his big league debut with the Royals earlier this season. Across 38 plate appearances in the majors, Taylor owns a .133/.270/.133 slash line. His performance has been much better across 308 plate appearances with Omaha as he’s slashed .306/.412/.460. Taylor figures to join a bench mix in Kansas City that currently includes infielder Matt Duffy and outfielder Dairon Blanco. He’ll replace Olivares on the roster, who has slashed .242/.296/.410 in the club while mostly playing left field for the club.

Garrett’s Royals tenure comes to an end a season and a half after the club acquired him from the Reds in a deal that sent left-hander Mike Minor to Cincinnati. Garrett’s time in Kansas City was fraught with struggles. In 2022, the lefty posted a 4.96 ERA that was 18% worse than league average. While his 3.40 FIP was solid, Garrett saw his strikeout rate dip from 28.4% the previous year down to 25% while his walk rate crept up from 13.5% to a more untenable 16.3% during the 2022 campaign. The results have been better in 2023, with a 3.33 ERA in 24 1/3 innings, but Garrett’s issues with the free pass have gotten even worse as his walk rate has reached a whopping 17.9% this season.

Going forward, the Royals will have a week to trade, waive, or release Garrett. While it’s doubtful Garrett would bring back much in trade, it’s possible some clubs would have sufficient interest in acquiring the 31-year-old lefty and seeing if they can iron out his control problems that they would be willing to take on the remaining half of Garrett’s $2.65MM salary this season.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Free Agent Power Rankings and Aroldis Chapman to the Rangers

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss:

Check out our past episodes!

  • The Angels Trade for Infielders, Indecisive NL Central Teams and Aaron Judge’s Toe – listen here
  • Exciting Youth Movements in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, Bad Central Divisions and the Dodgers Want Pitching – listen here
  • Marcus Stroman Lobbies for Extension, Mets’ Woes and Astros Seeking Bats – listen here

Royals Place Zack Greinke On Injured List

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The Royals placed Zack Greinke on the 15-day injured list this afternoon, recalling reliever Dylan Coleman to take the vacated roster spot. Greinke is dealing with shoulder tendinitis.

It doesn’t seem to be a particularly serious issue. Anne Rogers of MLB.com relays (0n Twitter) that the Royals are hopeful Greinke may only have to skip one turn through the rotation thanks to the upcoming All-Star Break. That suggests a minimal IL stint is a possibility, though he’ll meet with a doctor tomorrow to determine the next steps in his recovery.

Greinke’s absence is unlikely to change the Royals’ fortunes much. At 25-61, Kansas City looks ticketed for a last-place finish in the AL Central and a bottom three showing in MLB. It could have some implications for the trade market if he’s not able to return around the time he’s first eligible. Greinke is respected enough to draw some attention from other clubs this summer, even as he carries a 5.44 ERA thanks to a pair of clunkers in his last three starts.

Players on the injured list can still be traded, so Greinke would be able to move even if he’s not back on the mound by August 1. That seems unlikely, though, especially since K.C. would probably only move him if the six-time All-Star seeks a trade. Greinke has signed with the Royals on successive one-year contracts the past two seasons, preferring to return to the place where he began his career over two decades ago. He is playing this season on an $8.5MM salary and could almost double that mark via an innings-based incentive package.

Royals Transfer Josh Taylor To 60-Day Injured List

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The Royals today announced that outfielder Diego Hernandez was reinstated from the 60-day injured list and optioned to High-A Quad Cities. Left-hander Josh Taylor goes the other way, transferred to the 60-day IL in a corresponding move.

It’s not a shock to see Taylor wind up on the 60-day IL. He was placed on the 15-day IL in late May due to a shoulder impingement and it was reported last week that he would require lower back surgery to address a herniated disk. He’ll now be officially ineligible to return until late July, which didn’t seem especially likely anyhow. He’ll need to recover from that surgery and then will likely need a rehab assignment to get back into a game shape.

He came over to the Royals from in the January trade that saw the Red Sox acquire Adalberto Mondesí and a player to be named later, who was later named as Angel Pierre. Taylor made 17 appearances this year with an 8.15 ERA, though that number was inflated by a .409 batting average on balls in play and 55.1% strand rate. He struck out 31.3% of batters faced while walking 10.8% and advanced metrics liked him more than his ERA, such as a 4.81 FIP and 3.32 SIERA. Those figures align more closely with his 2022 performance, where he posted a 3.40 ERA in 61 appearances.

As for Hernandez, 22, he has yet to play in the majors or even at the Triple-A level. He was added to the club’s roster in November to protect him from being selected in the Rule 5 draft. He dislocated his shoulder in February and was placed on the 60-day IL on Opening Day as the club selected the contracts of veterans Matt Duffy, Franmil Reyes and Jackie Bradley Jr. Hernandez was able to earn big league pay and service time for the past three months while on the major league IL, though that will now come to an end. He’ll head to High-A and try to work his way up to his major league debut. He hit .284/.347/.407 between High-A and Double-A last year, stealing 40 bases in 115 games.

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