Twins Rumors

Twins, Niko Goodrum Agree To Minor League Deal

By Steve Adams | December 22, 2023 at 10:12am CDT

The Twins have agreed to a minor league deal with veteran utilityman Niko Goodrum, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. It’s a homecoming for the Roc Nation client, who was originally selected by Minnesota in the second round (71st overall) of the 2010 draft. Presumably, the switch-hitter will be in big league camp with the Twins this spring and compete for a bench role.

Now 31 years old (32 in February), Goodrum made his big league debut as a Twin back in 2017, but he appeared in only 11 games late in the season, going 1-for-17 in that brief MLB audition. Minnesota removed him from the 40-man roster that winter, and he quickly signed a minor league deal with the division-rival Tigers. It proved to be a shrewd move for Detroit, as Goodrum spent the next four seasons there and enjoyed two particularly productive years as a highly versatile utilityman.

In four seasons as a Tiger, Goodrum hit .232/.306/.401 in 1468 plate appearances. It was below-average production (10% worse than average, by measure of wRC+), though that’s weighed down by shaky performances in his final two seasons there. From 2018-19, Goodrum turned in a roughly average .247/.318/.427 slash with 28 homers and 24 steals in 968 plate appearances. He moved all over the diamond during his time with the Tigers, logging action at every position other than catcher and pitcher. During that two-year stretch in ’18-’19, however, Goodrum’s glovework graded out especially well. Statcast credited him with a whopping 10 Outs Above Average at shortstop in just 326 innings during the 2019 campaign.

Since that four-year stint with the Tigers, Goodrum has been with the Astros (for whom he made a brief MLB appearance in ’22), Red Sox and the KBO’s Lotte Giants. He concluded the 2023 season with that KBO run, posting a nice .295/.373/.387 slash (114 wRC+). Goodrum didn’t homer during his KBO time — a surprise considering he’s typically shown double-digit home run pop in North American ball — but walked at a hefty 11.4% clip.

The Twins’ bench currently projects to include catcher Christian Vazquez, infielder Kyle Farmer and utilitymen Willi Castro and Nick Gordon. Vazquez and particularly Farmer are trade candidates this winter, however, as Minnesota looks to scale back payroll amid uncertainty regarding their television rights situation. Gordon, meanwhile, struggled immensely in 93 plate appearances last year before fouling a ball into his leg and suffering a broken tibia that ended his season. He’s out of minor league options, so he’ll need a nice spring showing to solidify his place on the club. Depending on how things play out with Farmer’s trade candidacy and Gordon’s spring performance, it’s possible Goodrum could force his way into the mix. If not, he’ll likely head to Triple-A St. Paul and give Minnesota a veteran depth option who could provide insurance at the majority of spots on the diamond.

Central Notes: Cubs, Royals, India, Twins

By Nick Deeds | December 16, 2023 at 5:25pm CDT

The Cubs have received interest on young right-handers Ben Brown and Hayden Wesneski, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Rosenthal notes that the club is “not necessarily inclined” to move either youngster, but could become more open to it if they’re successful in adding a veteran starter this offseason. Chicago has been connected to NPB lefty Shota Imanaga on the free agent market and Guardians righty Shane Bieber on the trade market, among others.

Wesneski, 26, was a sixth-round pick by the Yankees in the 2019 draft and was shipped to the Cubs at the 2022 trade deadline in exchange for sidearming right-hander Scott Effross. Wesneski made his MLB debut with the Cubs that September and impressed down the stretch, with a 2.18 ERA and a 25% strikeout rate in 33 innings of work across six appearances. Wesneski went on to win the club’s fifth starter job out of camp in 2023. That decision proved to be an ill-fated one, as he struggled to a 5.09 ERA and 5.90 FIP across eight starts before being demoted to Triple-A. After spending a month in an up-and-down role shuttling between Triple-A and the majors, Wesneski settled into a multi-inning relief role in late June and posted a 3.79 ERA with a 27% strikeout rate across his final 22 appearances (35 2/3 innings).

Brown, 24, has yet to make his major league debut after being acquired from the Phillies in exchange for David Robertson at the same deadline the Cubs landed Wesneski. Upon acquiring Brown, the Cubs immediately promoted him to Double-A where he held his own, with a 4.06 ERA and 32.1% strikeout rate in seven starts down the stretch. Brown returned to the Double-A level for his first four starts of the 2023 season and dominated to a microscopic 0.45 ERA while posting an incredible 39% strikeout rate across 20 innings of work. That success saw Brown earn a promotion to the Triple-A level, where he struggled for the first time in his time with Chicago. While he struck out 31.1% of batters faced, the right-hander’s ERA ballooned to 5.33 in 72 2/3 innings of work as he walked a whopping 15.8% of batters faced. If Brown is able to keep those control issues in check, he figures to be a big league rotation option as soon as next season.

While Wesneski and Brown both come with flaws, it’s hardly a surprise that pitching-needy clubs would be interested in either youngster’s services. After all, controllable starting pitching is among the most sought-after commodities in the league, and a deal with the Cubs involving a lower-level arm like Wesneski or Brown could be more affordable than trading for one of the established regulars who have found their names in the rumor mill this offseason like Marlins lefty Jesus Luzardo or any number of young Mariners right-handers.

More from around MLB’s Central divisions…

The Royals have gone on something of a spending spree this offseason, adding Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo to their rotation, Chris Stratton and Will Smith in the bullpen, and Hunter Renfroe to their outfield mix. That’s a combined outlay of more than $100MM in guaranteed money, and the additions have left them with a projected payroll of $112MM for the 2024 campaign according to RosterResource. That being said, GM J.J. Picollo indicated to reporters (including Anne Rogers of MLB.com) that the club has likely done most of its heavy lifting for the offseason. Picollo noted that the club “would be content” with the additions they’ve made this offseason if they were to enter Spring Training with their current group of players, though Picollo did note that the club is going to continue to explore ways to strengthen its depth throughout the remainder of the offseason.
MLB Network’s Jon Morosi indicates that trade talks surrounding Reds second baseman Jonathan India “remain active,” and that multiple teams are engaged with Cincinnati on the infielder. Recent reporting indicated that the club feels no additional urgency to part with India or another member of its crowded infield mix even after adding another bat to the logjam in the form of Jeimer Candelario, who signed with the Reds on a three-year deal earlier this month. The 27-year-old started his career off with a bang by winning the NL Rookie of the Year award back in 2021 but has been an essentially league average bat in the two years since, slashing .246/.333/.394 across 960 trips to the plate since the start of the 2022 campaign.
The Twins look to be parting ways with a longtime fixture in their front office, as Darren Wolfson of Skor North and Brandon Warne of Access Twins report that vice president Rob Antony will not have his contract renewed by the club when it expires at the end of the current calendar year. Antony first joined the Twins organization back in 1988 and has worked in baseball operations for the club since 1996, including a stint as assistant GM from 2007 to 2021. Antony is perhaps most notable for his brief stint as acting GM of the Twins in 2016, when he bridged the gap between Terry Ryan and Derek Falvey as the club’s head of baseball operations.

Twins Getting Trade Interest In Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler

By Mark Polishuk | December 9, 2023 at 10:29am CDT

Infielder Jorge Polanco and right fielder Max Kepler “are the two Twins players drawing the most interest on the trade market,” sources tell Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. With Polanco in particular, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi adds that the former All-Star’s market has “increased” within the last week.

It doesn’t appear as though a deal might be particularly close for either player, as the Twins are one of several teams whose winter business has been somewhat stalled by the logjam at the top of the free agent market. As Minnesota PBO Derek Falvey told Nightengale and other reporters at the Winter Meetings, “what we continue to hear on the trade front…is ’Hey, we have interest in some of your players. We’d like to talk about these guys, but we have to wait on a few other things to happen,’ or free agent discussions to come to pass. When that happens, you’re constantly waiting to some degree.”

Trade winds have swirled around Polanco and Kepler even before the offseason began, and that speculation even before Favley said last month that the Twins were going to reduce their payroll for 2024. It is worth noting that the Twins might’ve been able to make those cuts simply by not retaining Polanco or Kepler for the next season, though the team opted to exercise club options on both players (Polanco for $10.5MM, Kepler for $10MM) rather than just lose them for nothing.

With some level of trade interest brewing, it would appear as through Minnesota’s front office made the right decision. Obviously it remains to be seen if either player will be dealt at all, or what a return might be for either solid-but-unspectacular veteran. Kepler also has only one year of control remaining, while Polanco can be controlled through the 2025 season via another club option ($12MM with a $750K buyout).

A case can be made that the Twins could or retain both Polanco and Kepler given how the team has battled injuries (including some missed time for these two themselves) over the last two seasons, yet Minnesota does appear to have something of a surplus around the diamond. With Royce Lewis and Edouard Julien emerging last season, third base and second base might now be covered, leaving Polanco without an obvious starting position since Carlos Correa naturally has Polanco’s old shortstop spot covered. Matt Wallner, Nick Gordon, and Trevor Larnach are all left-handed hitting outfield options, so Kepler might be a bit of an expendable piece.

Perhaps ideally, Minnesota would prefer to trade utilityman Kyle Farmer (and his $6.6MM projected arbitration salary) rather than Polanco or Kepler. That said, rival teams would likewise be more willing to give up a notable return to land an everyday type of commodity rather than Farmer, who is maybe best suited for a part-time role. Since center field, first base, and the rotation are all target areas for the Twins this winter, they might have no choice but to move at least one of Polanco and Kepler to thread of needle of upgrading the roster while also reducing payroll at the same time.

Twins Notes: Buxton, Center Field, Rotation

By Nick Deeds | December 2, 2023 at 7:32pm CDT

Twins fans received some positive news on the status of Byron Buxton today, as La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reports that Buxton is fully recovered from the arthroscopic knee surgery he underwent back in October. Neal adds that team officials are pleased with Buxton’s progress and that the goal for the 29-year-old is for him to return to baseball activities by the end of 2023. It’s a promising update, particularly in tandem with recent comments from president of baseball operations Derek Falvey that indicated the club hopes to return Buxton to center field for the 2024 season.

Buxton, 30 later this month, struggled to stay healthy in 2023 even as the Twins moved him to the DH role on an everyday basis. Despite his typically elite center field defense, Buxton did not take the field at all this past season, appearing as a pinch hitter in five games and as the club’s DH in his other 80 appearances. The limited time on his feet unfortunately did not help Buxton stay productive at the plate, as he slashed just .207/.294/.438 with a 98 wRC+ that clocked in just below league average.

Considerable as Buxton’s struggles were in 2023, however, it’s difficult to overstate how transformative his the slugger’s presence can be when healthy. In addition to being one of the league’s most elite defensive outfielders, Buxton has shown the ability to provide game-changing offensive contributions as well. From 2020-22, he slashed a whopping .257/.317/.576 (144 wRC+) with 60 homers and 9.3 fWAR in 771 trips to the plate. The rub there, of course, is that Buxton was only to take the field for just over a full season’s worth of plate appearances across the shortened 2020 season and two full, 162-game campaigns.

Buxton’s substantial injury history led the Twins to acquire center fielder Michael A. Taylor from the Royals last offseason as a backup plan to Buxton. That decision proved to be a prudent one, as Taylor stepped in as the club’s regular center fielder in Buxton’s stead and performed admirably, pairing a strong glove with 21 home runs in 388 trips to the plate. With Taylor having departed for free agency last month, the Star Tribune’s Bobby Nightengale suggests that center field is the “biggest question mark” on the club’s roster as things stand, even as Buxton appears set to attempt to reclaim the regular job this spring.

If Buxton were to fall victim to the injury bug again, the Twins would have no other dedicated center fielder on their 40-man roster. That doesn’t mean the club completely lacks internal solutions. Nightengale notes that former fifth-overall pick Austin Martin, who has 65 games of experience in center at the minor league level, figures to focus on the position this spring, though he made just 12 appearances at the position last year and has yet to make his big league debut. In terms of players with major league experience, the club’s options in center field should Buxton be unable to handle full-time duties are limited to utility players Willi Castro and Nick Gordon, neither of whom has appeared at the position in more than 45 games in a season before.

That could make center field a position of need for the Twins even as they hope Buxton is able to return to everyday duties. The club’s plan to cut payroll this offseason makes a pursuit of top center field free agent Cody Bellinger impossible to imagine, though it’s at least plausible to imagine the club either re-signing Taylor or adding a similar piece like Kevin Kiermaier or Harrison Bader, who could easily play the position on a regular basis but wouldn’t necessarily demand everyday playing time. Of course, it’s possible even that sort of signing would cost-prohibitive without a trade of an veteran bat like Christian Vazquez, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler or Kyle Farmer. In that case, the club could be relegated to lower-tier free agents such as Kevin Pillar or a trade candidate like Trent Grisham or Dylan Carlson.

Nightengale also references the club’s expected pursuits of help in the starting rotation and at first base this offseason, though the rotation comments come with an interesting change of pace. While past reports have indicated the Twins are expected to focus on adding depth to the club’s rotation, Nightengale suggests that adding a “front-line starter” is a goal for the Twins this offseason, suggesting they could look to do so through the trade market. Given the club’s deep positional group and financial incentive to deal from that group, it’s easy to see how a deal for a front-of-the-rotation arm could come together.

That being said, Nightengale cautions that the Twins are far from alone in their goal of trading for a front-end rotation piece this offseason. While each of Corbin Burnes, Dylan Cease, Shane Bieber, and Tyler Glasnow have seen their names floated on the rumor mill so far this offseason even more teams have been floated as potential suitors. The Dodgers, Braves, Cubs, Reds, Padres, Mets, Red Sox, and Cardinals are among the clubs who have been connected to at least one of the aforementioned quarter of available arms, and it’s unclear if the Twins will be willing to outbid that crowded field to replace Sonny Gray at the top of their rotation alongside Pablo Lopez.

Twins Re-Sign Jovani Moran, Ronny Henriquez To Minor League Deals

By Steve Adams | December 1, 2023 at 10:27am CDT

The Twins have re-signed relievers Jovani Moran and Ronny Henriquez to minor league contracts, per the team’s transaction log at MLB.com. Both were non-tendered a few weeks ago. The left-handed Moran is expected to miss the 2024 season after undergoing Tommy John surgery following the ’23 campaign. Henriquez, acquired from the Rangers as part of 2022’s Mitch Garver trade, battled elbow trouble and struggled in 37 Triple-A appearances this past season.

Both pitchers were non-tendered despite being several years from arbitration eligibility. However, the non-tender deadline gives teams the unique opportunity to immediately remove a player from the 40-man roster without needing to pass him through waivers, so the Twins used that chance to clear up some space while retaining hope for this type of minor league re-signing.

Moran, 26, has been a heavily used option for manager Rocco Baldelli over the past two seasons, at times looking like a potential setup man — he logged a 2.21 ERA, 32.9% strikeout rate and 11% walk rate in 40 1/3 innings in 2022 — but also battling inconsistencies stemming from his below-average command. He picked up nine holds for the Twins this past season but struggled to a 5.31 ERA with a diminished 26.1% strikeout rate and an alarming 14.7% walk rate.

Moran looked to have righted the ship, to an extent, after a shaky start to the year before a brutal stretch in July that saw him yield nine runs on seven hits and seven walks in what proved to be his final seven innings of the season. He was placed on the injured list with an always-ominous forearm strain, ultimately going under the knife a couple months later. He’ll miss the 2024 season and look to get back into the mix for a roster spot in 2025.

The 23-year-old Henriquez made his big league debut with the Twins in 2022 and impressed with 11 2/3 innings of 2.31 ERA ball. He fanned 18% of his opponents against a 6% walk rate and kept the ball on the ground at a healthy 52.8% clip while averaging 93.2 mph on his heater. He ranked 19th among Twins prospects at FanGraphs and 23rd at Baseball America before this past season’s elbow troubles derailed his year. Henriquez had multiple IL stints due to elbow inflammation and ultimately pitched to an unsightly 5.64 ERA in 57 Triple-A frames. He’ll likely open the season back in Triple-A St. Paul as a depth option.

Twins Expect To Add At Least One Starting Pitcher

By Steve Adams | November 30, 2023 at 11:54am CDT

Much of the focus of the Twins’ offseason thus far has been on their intent to scale back payroll amid the collapse of their RSN deal with Diamond Sports Group/Bally Sports, and potential trades of veterans like Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Kyle Farmer and Christian Vazquez. However, while all of those storylines remain valid, the Twins’ desire to reduce payroll doesn’t preclude them from spending at all. Minnesota has a projected payroll of about $125MM right now and figures to end up in the $125-135MM range. Trades of Kepler ($10MM salary in 2024), Polanco ($10.5MM), Farmer ($6.6MM projected salary) and/or Vazquez ($10MM) could leave them with room for some spending.

To that end, it’s worth highlighting that both Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune and Dan Hayes of The Athletic have written this week that the Twins expect to add at least one starting pitcher this winter. That’s not likely to be a top-of-the-market name but rather someone to compete with Louie Varland for the final spot in the rotation, Nightengale suggests. Minnesota also hopes to bring in a second veteran arm (if not more) on a minor league deal, Hayes adds.

As it stands, even with the departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda, Minnesota has a respectable front five. Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and the aforementioned Varland are currently at the top of the depth chart, with minor league arms like Simeon Woods Richardson, Brent Headrick and yet-to-debut prospects David Festa and Matt Canterino (who missed the 2023 season due rehabbing from 2022 Tommy John surgery) next in line.

It’s a nice group of arms, but Paddack figures to be on an innings count in his first full season back from his second career Tommy John surgery. He looked excellent in 8 2/3 innings of bullpen work late in the regular season and during the playoffs, but overall he pitched just 18 1/3 frames between his minor league rehab stint, brief regular-season return, and that playoff showing. He pitched 22 1/3 innings the year prior.

The Twins don’t yet know how many innings they can count on from Paddack, but it’ll surely be fewer than his career-high 140 2/3 frames. Even reaching 100 frames would have to be considered a success, given his recent lack of innings. All four of their other starters topped 140 innings in 2023 (Triple-A time for Varland and Ober included), but the Twins can’t presume each of Lopez, Ryan, Ober and Varland will be healthy enough for 30-plus appearances for a second straight season in 2024 (again, including Triple-A time for the latter two). They’re also losing a combined 288 1/3 innings from the departures of Gray and Maeda.

Even if the Twins can safely be crossed off the list of expected suitors for Blake Snell, Jordan Montgomery and the like, there are plenty of experienced arms who could slot into the mix in the final two rotation spots. A veteran like Wade Miley would provide steady innings on a short-term deal. The Twins could also pursue an upside/rebound play like Jack Flaherty or Frankie Montas, the latter of whom they targeted in trades a couple years back. On the lower end of the salary spectrum, the Twins’ existing depth makes them a reasonable candidate to roll the dice on former top prospect and reigning KBO MVP Erick Fedde, who’s eyeing a possible MLB return. In general, it’s a deep class of free-agent pitchers. It’s also plausible that they could acquire a younger back-of-the-rotation candidate in a deal involving one of those previously mentioned trade candidates, simultaneously bolstering depth and scaling back payroll in the process.

The Twins probably aren’t going to be major free-agent players this offseason, as they’ve been in the past couple winters, but between their pursuit of some additional innings/rotation depth and president of baseball operations Derek Falvey’s recent acknowledgment that he’ll likely explore the first base market, Minnesota could still be active in the middle and lower tiers of free agency — in addition to their expected activity on the trade market.

Central Notes: Pirates, Twins, Cardinals

By Nick Deeds | November 26, 2023 at 10:34am CDT

On the heels of a 76-86 season and a fourth place finish in the NL Central, the Pirates are looking for upgrades in several areas. Starting pitching appears to be a focus for Pittsburgh this offseason, particularly on the heels of yesterday’s news that right-hander Johan Oviedo is set to undergo Tommy John surgery. Beyond their club’s need for multiple starting pitching additions, GM Ben Cherington has indicated that his front office hopes to make a veteran addition at first base this offseason, as the club did by inking Carlos Santana last offseason.

While Santana is a free agent again this offseason, FanSided’s Robert Murray suggests a pair of recently non-tendered sluggers who could be of interest to the Pirates this offseason: Rowdy Tellez and Dominic Smith. Tellez, 29 in March, is coming off an injury-plagued 2023 campaign where he managed just 351 plate appearances but was among Milwaukee’s best hitters in 2022 with a .219/.306/.461 slash line and 35 home runs in 599 trips to the plate. Smith, meanwhile, is a former first-round pick who saw significant success with the Mets in 2019-20, slashing .299/.366/.571 in 139 games across the two seasons. He’s struggled since then with a .243/.311/.355 slash line over the past three seasons, though he did bounce back somewhat with the Nationals in 2023 to post a roughly league average line of .254/.326/.366 in 153 games as the club’s regular first baseman.

More from around MLB’s Central divisions…

As the Twins look to reduce payroll this offseason, La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune relays that Minnesota’s efforts to cut costs have not been limited to the major league roster. The club’s scouting department has seen a number of departures thanks to both desire to trim payroll and “streamline” the club’s scouting apparatus with an emphasis on analytics. Among the scouts who have parted ways with the Twins this offseason, per Neal, are Bill Milos, Rafael Yanez, and Mike Larson, all of whom Neal indicates will be replaced internally. Neal adds that the club also parted ways with director of Latin American scouting Fred Guerrero, who has since joined the Royals, but Guerrero’s position will be filled by external hire Ramon Barinas going forward. In addition to these scouting changes, the Twins figure to consider a variety of avenues to trimming salary off the major league roster this offseason, perhaps including a trade of glove-first catcher Christian Vazquez.
Cardinals right-hander Andre Pallante was among the club’s most valuable rookies in 2022, when he posted a 3.17 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 108 innings split between the rotation and bullpen. Though Pallante posted a below-average 16% strikeout rate that season, he made up for it with a fantastic 63.9% groundball rate. Things didn’t go so smoothly for Pallante in 2023, however, as the righty’s ERA soared to 4.76, 8% worse than league average by measure of ERA+ despite an even stronger 77.8% groundball rate in 68 innings of work as a full-time reliever. Daniel Guerrero of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes today that Pallante, 25, has already begun working on pitch shapes and mechanics this offseason after spending time at a sports performance facility in North Carolina. If the adjustments help Pallante recover his 2022 form, it would be an excellent turn of events for a St. Louis club hoping to turn things around after a 91-loss season and a last-place finish in the NL Central as the young righty looks to contribute to the club’s late-inning mix alongside Ryan Helsley, Giovanny Gallegos, and JoJo Romero.

AL Central Notes: Lugo, Royals, Twins, Vazquez, Kelly

By Mark Polishuk | November 25, 2023 at 9:54am CDT

Before Seth Lugo signed with the Padres last winter, the Royals were “reportedly” one of the other teams interested, the Kansas City Star’s Jaylon Thompson writes. That doesn’t necessarily mean that K.C. has continued that interest now that Lugo is a free agent again, yet given the Royals’ need for starting pitching and the apparent fact that the majority of the league has at least checked in on Lugo’s services, it stands to reason that the Royals still have the right-hander on their radar.

The price tag will be significantly higher for Lugo this time around. After inking a two-year, $15MM deal with San Diego last winter, Lugo re-established himself as a starting pitcher and posted a solid 3.57 ERA over 146 1/3 innings in 2023. This puts Lugo in line for at least the three years and $42MM that MLB Trade Rumors has projected, and it seems entirely possible that he’ll land an even bigger payday given the broad interest in his services. Kansas City might be hard pressed to land Lugo if it turns into a pure bidding war, yet as Thompson notes, the Royals already know they won’t be vying for the most expensive free agent pitchers. Some teams might see Lugo as a bit more of a backup plan if they can’t land a top-tier starter, whereas the Royals are theoretically more able to focus all their attention on the 34-year-old early.

Twins Interested In Kenta Maeda Reunion

By Darragh McDonald | November 25, 2023 at 7:38am CDT

TODAY: Negotiations between Maeda and the Tigers “have intensified in recent days,” according to MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (X link).

NOVEMBER 24: Free agent right-hander Kenta Maeda reportedly has “serious” interest from the Tigers but a reunion with the Twins is still possible. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reports that both the Tigers and Twins are interested in Maeda, though there’s nothing to indicate his market his limited to just those two clubs.

Maeda, 36 in April, has a long track record of being an effective major leaguer, with an earned run average of 3.92 in 190 games dating back to 2016. The last few years have been fairly inconsistent, with high highs and low lows. In 2020, he posted an ERA of 2.70 in 11 starts during the shortened season, finishing second to Shane Bieber in Cy Young voting. But his ERA jumped to 4.66 the next year and he ultimately required internal brace surgery, a variant of Tommy John, on his throwing elbow.

He was able to get back on the mound in 2023 and finished the year with a 4.23 ERA, though that figure disguises how good he actually was. In his fourth outing of the year, he was pummelled for 10 earned runs in three innings against the Yankees and went on the injured list due to a triceps strain right after. He returned in June and put up an ERA of 3.36 the rest of the way, striking out 29% of opponents while walking just 7%. Any pitcher will look better if you ignore their worst start but it seems fair to conclude that Maeda wasn’t 100% healthy in that nightmare outing against the Yanks. Despite his age and recent inconsistency, MLBTR predicted he could get a two-year, $36MM contract based on his strong second half and previous track record.

That the Twins are interested in a reunion makes sense on a couple of fronts. At the end of the 2023 campaign, they lost not only Maeda but also Sonny Gray to free agency, subtracting two key pieces from the rotation. Chris Paddack returned from his own Tommy John rehab and could perhaps soften the blow of those departures, but the starting rotation is clearly weaker than it was not too long ago. Paddack should slot in somewhere with Pablo López, Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober, giving the club four solid options. Louie Varland had some home run troubles in the majors last year but showed enough potential there and in Triple-A that he could be considered a reasonable fifth starter. But he still has a couple of options and just 94 innings of big league experience to his name, making it sensible to bump him down to the sixth spot.

The club has also generally avoided long-term contracts for free agent pitchers since Derek Falvey took over as the club’s primary baseball decision maker after the 2016 season. They did give a four-year extension to López but the largest contract they’ve given to a pitcher apart from that was the two-year, $20MM deal for Michael Pineda back in 2019. Multiple reports in recent weeks have suggested that the demand for starting pitching is incredibly high, but Maeda’s age will prevent his market from going too crazy, which would suit the M.O. of the Twins.

It might also work with their specific financial concerns, as uncertainty around their broadcast rights is seemingly going to cause a reduction in payroll. They had an Opening Day payroll of $154MM in 2023, per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, but could potentially wind up in the $125-140MM range in 2024. Roster Resource estimates that they are already at $125MM, which perhaps doesn’t leave a ton of room for an estimated $18MM salary for Maeda. But they also have a potential surplus of position players and could perhaps free up some extra cash that way.

Jorge Polanco is making $10.5MM in 2024, with a $750K buyout on a 2025 club option. Max Kepler is making $10MM and is slated for free agency after. Christian Vázquez has two years and $20MM left on his deal. Kyle Farmer is projected for a salary of $6.6MM in his final arbitration season. Those players have all either been in trade rumors or speculated as candidates, with the club having enough position player talent to theoretically move someone and still have a strong core. If the club ends up flipping one or more of these guys, it becomes easier to see them fitting Maeda into the budget.

Ultimately, Maeda is probably just one of many options the Twins are considering. Similarly, while the Tigers and Twins have been specifically connected to Maeda, it seems fair to expect that there are far more clubs at the table. The fierce competition for rotation help has led to roughly half the league reportedly checking in on pitchers from Yoshinobu Yamamoto to Seth Lugo, while even Noah Syndergaard is drawing interest despite a nightmare season in 2023.

Twins Have Discussed Christian Vázquez Trades

By Darragh McDonald | November 23, 2023 at 9:26am CDT

The Twins have been open about their plans to reduce payroll and that has reportedly led them to try to trade some players from their roster. In an appearance on Foul Territory, Robert Murray of FanSided listed catcher Christian Vázquez as one player that the club has been aggressively shopping.

Vázquez, now 33, signed a three-year, $30MM deal with the Twins almost a year ago. He got that deal after many years of solid work in the big leagues, generally pairing strong defense with offense around league average for a backstop. However, the first year in Minnesota didn’t go especially well. Vázquez was still good when donning the tools of ignorance but his work with the bat took a big step backwards. His strikeout rate jumped to a career high of 23.1% and his overall line of .223/.280/.318 translated to a wRC+ of just 65.

While Vázquez was going through that disappointing season, the Twins saw Ryan Jeffers take the opposite path. He had a tremendous breakout campaign in 2023, hitting 14 home runs in 96 games. His .276/.369/.490 batting line led to a wRC+ of 138. His glovework isn’t as heralded as that of Vázquez but he is still just 26 years old and could still make strides behind the plate. He’s only entering arbitration for the first time this winter with a projected salary of $2.3MM and isn’t slated for free agency until after 2026.

Vázquez still has two years and $20MM left on his deal, which isn’t terribly burdensome by baseball payroll standards. But for a club looking to cut costs due to its uncertainty around broadcast revenue, $10MM per year on a catcher who has been leapfrogged on the depth chart might be a luxury they can’t afford. Jair Camargo just had a strong season in Triple-A and got added to the 40-man roster, so perhaps he could step in as a backup to Jeffers, or the club could also look for a lower-cost veteran to replace Vázquez.

Though the Twins are looking to shed salary, they will likely have to eat at least a little bit of the deal in order to move it. Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic reported this week that several other clubs were willing to give Vázquez deals around two years and $20MM last year before the Twins got it done by adding a third year. But with Vázquez now a year older and coming off a rough season, the desire by other clubs to take on that contract is surely diminished.

But once the financials are worked out, there would likely be plenty of interest around the league. Murray mentions that the Padres had interest in Vázquez when he was a free agent, though they have their own payroll concerns and Luis Campusano had a strong finish to the 2023 season for them, perhaps reducing their need for help behind the plate. Murray also mentions the Marlins as a speculative fit, which is sensible since they are known to be looking for upgrades there. Some other clubs that could perhaps look for veteran to help with the workload behind the plate include the Red Sox, White Sox, Cubs, Rays, Diamondbacks and others.

Despite the rough 2023 campaign, Vázquez suitors might be interested in the .271/.318/.416 batting line he posted from 2019 to 2022. That translated to a 94 wRC+, below average overall but roughly par for a catcher, which paired nicely with his excellent glovework. What might help the Twins is that the free agent market doesn’t have many more exciting options. Mitch Garver and Tom Murphy have more offensive upside but both have significant injury histories and can’t match Vázquez in terms of defense. Gary Sánchez, Victor Caratini and Yasmani Grandal are some of the other top names available. What might work against the Twins, however, is that the Yankees are also looking to trade from their catching surplus.

It’s been suggested that the Twins could look to open 2024 with a payroll between $125MM and $140MM, a drop from last year’s $154MM mark. Roster Resource has them pegged at $125MM already, giving them little wiggle room for upgrading the pitching staff. They could give themselves a bit more breathing space with a trade of a player making a somewhat notable salary, such as Max Kepler, Jorge Polanco or Kyle Farmer, but Vázquez is apparently on the list as well.

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