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Latest On Mariners’ Deadline Plans

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The Mariners have been one of the most surprising contenders of the 2021 season to date. Manager Scott Servais entered the season with a six-man rotation and a host of exciting young outfielders getting ready to traverse the grass at T-Mobile Park, but expectations were low for a franchise with zero World Series appearances and no playoff appearances since 2001.

Both droughts are likely to continue into 2022, but there’s at least a chance that the Mariners could continue their upward trajectory and push for a playoff spot this season. With the trade deadline two weeks away, the Mariners are 49-43, on pace for 86 wins and just 3.5 games out of a wild card spot. In fact, they have the best record in the American League for a team not currently in a playoff spot, putting them in prime position to be surprise buyers at the deadline.

GM Jerry Dipoto has his ear to the ground, as ever, though it sounds like he’s still vacillating between the buyers and sellers line. Per The Athletic’s Corey Brock, Dipoto offered this recent assessment: “Our bullpen has been awesome, and it was roughly a number of guys who no one has ever heard of that just needed another chance. That’s put us in a really good position right now to be able to make a more aggressive play in the next two, three weeks if the opportunity presents itself. But we’re not going to push the opportunity because we believe this is a window that is open and we want to make sure it stays open. We don’t want to shortchange our long term.”

Their greatest need, should they want to wrench that window open right now, would be to add another starter to an injury-depleted rotation. Logan Gilbert has emerged as an exciting young arm, and Marco Gonzales is healthy again alongside Yusei Kikuchi and Chris Flexen, but they also have nearly a full rotation on the injured list.

As Dipoto noted above, the bullpen has helped shoulder the load thanks to surprisingly competent seasons from Kendall Graveman, JT Chargois, Paul Sewald, and Drew Steckenrider, a foursome that’s accrued 3.3 fWAR of their league-leading 4.5 bullpen fWAR. The Mariners have made a practice of trading away relievers over the years, but this time around they might choose to hold onto a few of them, especially if they can’t find the rotation help they need.

That said, it’s just as likely that Trader Jerry stays true to his history and deals an arm or two to a contender. Brock suggests that Graveman is the most likely Mariner to find himself in a new uniform by August, which certainly makes some sense given his breakout season. Graveman is a free agent at the end of the year, and right now he’s presenting as a difference-maker, a transition from starter to high-leverage arm that began last season. He has locked down eight saves as the Mariners’ closer, pitching to a sterling 0.93 ERA/3.03 FIP across 29 innings.

Even if the Mariners do decide to sell a piece or two, don’t expect Mitch Haniger to be an easy get. Brock notes that Haniger “isn’t likely to be moved unless the Mariners are floored by a deal.”

On the one hand, that might be surprising given the plethora of promising young outfielders in the organization, well-known prospects like Jarred Kelenic, Jake Fraley, Kyle Lewis, Julio Rodriguez and Taylor Trammell. For now, however, Lewis is hurt, Rodriguez has just 14 games of experience in Double-A, and Kelenic and Trammell have stumbled at the big league level with marks of 12 wRC+ and 74 wRC+, respectively.

In the plus column, Fraley has absolutely raked to a 143 wRC+ by way of a .237/.409/.439 triple slash — buoyed by an above-average .202 ISO and eye-opening 22.1 percent walk rate that would be first overall in the game among qualified hitters if he had more plate appearances. Fraley doesn’t have the prospect pedigree of those other names, however, and it’ll take more than 149 plate appearances to anoint him as an above-average regular.

Which is the point, really, both behind Haniger’s value on the trade market and the Mariners’ desire to keep him. Injuries have slowed his ascension to stardom, but since his arrival in Seattle, he’s been a 127 wRC+ hitter with 78 home runs and a .269/.343/.489 triple slash line across 1,751 plate appearances. He’s 30 years old, and with one more season of team control remaining, it’s easy to understand why contenders might ask about his availability.

Despite Haniger’s importance to this lineup, however, and despite the Mariners having a chance to make a run at the playoffs, Trader Jerry likes to deal. Speculatively speaking, Dipoto likely would prefer to get the godfather offer for Haniger that forces his hand, and maybe that makes him more inclined to see that offer where it doesn’t exist. But by all accounts, Dipoto is content to hold him through the deadline.

He could, after all, explore a trade in the offseason. Besides, with Lewis hurt and Rodriguez not yet ready, there’s no real rush to vacate Haniger’s plate appearances. There’s enough run to go around if Servais wants to see Haniger, Fraley, Trammell, and Kelenic all in the lineup at the same time, though that hasn’t been the case thus far.

Still, expect Dipoto to do something. At the very least, he sounds likely to acquire some kind of starting pitcher, with the real question being the quality of arm he’s able/willing to procure.

Mariners Notes: Trade Deadline, Sheffield, Dipoto

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2:50pm: Dipoto revealed in an appearance on 710 ESPN Radio today that Sheffield has been diagnosed with a mild flexor strain in his left forearm but also a Grade 2 oblique strain (Twitter link via 710’s Shannon Drayer). The oblique injury is the more significant of the two, and based on the fact that it’s a Grade 2 strain, it seems fair to expect Sheffield to be absent from the Seattle rotation for a rather notable chunk of time. Even less-severe Grade 1 oblique strains can sideline players for around a month at a time.

10:20am: After slipping a few games below .500 in mid-June, the Mariners have rallied back with a 14-7 showing that has them three games over .500, at 45-42. That still places them nine games back in a  tough AL West, but they’re only three and a half games down in the Wild Card standings. Seattle has looked like one of the many teams whose deadline trajectory could very well be determined by how the team fares in its next 10 games or so, but manager Scott Servais suggested in an appearance on MLB Network Radio on SiriusXM that he expects the front office to operate as buyers (Twitter link, with audio).

“We’ve got a ton of prospect capital, and we’ve got young players in our system — our minor league system has improved so much,” Servais told hosts Mike Ferrin and Jim Duquette. “…Our Major League team is moving in the right direction, so the possibility to add players to help this year and to help going forward is really important for us. I’m sure [GM Jerry Dipoto] and [assistant GM] Justin Hollander are talking to everybody out there and seeing what they can do to better us now and then also take a look into 2022 and beyond.”

Asked about specific areas of need, Servais said with a chuckle that “every manager out there says he needs more pitching.” While that was something of a tongue-in-cheek comment, the rotation is a fairly obvious area of focus if Dipoto and the front office do indeed look to add to the roster. The Mariners have received solid results from Yusei Kikuchi, Justin Dunn, offseason signing Chris Flexen and top prospect Logan Gilbert, but on the whole, their starters are 23rd in the Majors with a 4.76 ERA.

Opening Day starter Marco Gonzales missed more than a month with a forearm injury and hasn’t looked like himself when healthy enough to take the mound. The typically steady left-hander has posted a career-worst nine percent walk rate, which has been exacerbated by the fact that he’s been one of MLB’s most homer-prone pitchers in 2021 (2.29 HR/9).

Fellow left-hander Justus Sheffield, meanwhile, has recently struggled through a brutal stretch — a slump that looks all the more alarming after the Mariners announced last night that he was headed to the injured list with a forearm strain of his own. No timetable for the southpaw’s return was provided.

The 25-year-old Sheffield pitched to a 4.17 ERA and 3.97 FIP from Opening Day 2020 through June 3 of this season and looked to be settling in as a reliable member of the Seattle rotation. But over his past five starts, Sheffield has managed only 19 1/3 innings and been hammered for 24 runs on 33 hits (seven homers) and 12 walks. His velocity hasn’t dipped in that time, but it’s still the worst stretch of his young career — one that’s ballooned his 2021 ERA to 6.48 in short order.

Looking long-term, the Mariners have some high-end arms still on the way. Recent first-rounders George Kirby and Emerson Hancock were both drafted as polished college arms, but they’re currently pitching at Class-A Advanced and aren’t immediate options to help round out the MLB group. The Mariners have some depth options in Triple-A — Robert Dugger is already on the 40-man roster — but they’ve also lost a lot of their depth to injuries. Dunn is currently on the IL with a shoulder strain. James Paxton’s return to Seattle lasted just 1 1/3 innings before he required Tommy John surgery. Righty Ljay Newsome also went down with a UCL tear, and lefty Nick Margevicius underwent thoracic outlet surgery earlier in the year.

Given that slate of injuries and new concerns surrounding Sheffield, it’d only be natural for the Mariners to look for some help on the trade market. And while that’ll be especially likely if they remain within arm’s reach of a postseason berth, the Mariners are the type of team that could look to add longer-term pieces to their MLB group even if they begin to fall back in the standings. Servais foreshadowed as much when mentioning “[taking] a look into 2022 and beyond” — a nod to the possibility of acquiring a pitcher with multiple years of club control remaining.

Regardless of how the Mariners finish in the standings this year, the offseason expectation will be that they’re going to start adding to the roster via free agency and trades. Much of the team’s young core has either emerged in the big leagues already or will do so over the next calendar year. Acquiring a pitcher with multiple years of club control would only serve to jumpstart that process for Dipoto & Co.

Then again, as Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times points out, there’s at least some degree of uncertainty surrounding the organization’s top decision-maker himself. Dipoto is in the final season of a three-year contract right now and has yet to sign a new deal. Divish reports that the Mariners have “floated” the idea of a one-year extension for the 2022 season, which would give Dipoto a chance to finish off his rebuild and ownership the chance to take a look at a more finished product, so to speak.

For the time being, however, Dipoto is approaching a pivotal trade deadline with no guarantee he’ll still be at the helm this coming offseason. It’s still possible that ownership will get something done this month — Dipoto’s last three-year extension was signed in early July, 2018 — but it’s not clear whether there’s been any formal offer made.

Mariners Likely Done Adding Major League Pieces

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The Mariners sought multiyear accords with a couple of free agents this winter, including Kolten Wong and Tommy La Stella, per Daniel Kramer of MLB.com. The Mariners were clear in their attempt to find a left-handed bat to split time with Dylan Moore at second base. Ideally, that player could stick his cleat in the grass at times as well, specifically as an option in left field.

Though the Mariners came up empty, there were more than a few free agents who fit that mold. Ha-Seong Kim, Marwin Gonzalez, Jonathan Villar, Jurickson Profar, Brad Miller, Jace Peterson, Ehire Adrianza, Brock Holt, and Dee Strange-Gordon signed elsewhere at a variety of different price points. It’s a little hard to fathom that the Mariners couldn’t find a way to add someone from that group. Presumably, those names either didn’t fit GM Jerry Dipoto’s vision or priced themselves beyond the Mariners’ comfort zone. Mike Freeman and Eric Sogard are two options whom the Mariners could turn to, should they want to bolster their depth. They are prepared to enter camp with the roster as-is, however.

Per Kramer, Dipoto more-or-less put a bow on their winter work, saying, “We had a series of targets, each of which we thought were ideal fits. We put them in an order that we thought best represented the way we saw that player, and then we tried to go out and get them. In all of those cases, we offered multiyear contracts that seemed to fit what we were trying to do not just for 2021, but for 2022 and potentially beyond that. We were aggressive in that market. We just failed to bring in the offensive piece we were looking to add.”

Without that additional piece, the Mariners will roll with Moore at second and Shed Long filling that versatile bench role. Sam Haggerty and Donovan Walton will push him for playing time in spring training, while Taylor Trammell and Jake Fraley will get take some spring at-bats in left. Designated hitter Ty France could also see time at second.

In further Mariners news, Logan Gilbert will likely start the season in Triple-A. While he was previously going to have an opportunity to contend for a spot in their six-man rotation, the James Paxton signing will allow the Mariners to protect his innings and bring him along slowly.

This follows a trend for the Mariners’ roster-building this winter, as they’ve tried to build out their depth to allow for maximum flexibility in how they promote and push their young players. Mission accomplished: if anything, the Mariners are light on veteran depth at the moment on the position player side. As is, they can allot most of the playing time this spring to youngsters, including top prospects Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez – both of whom are likely to start the season in the minors.

The Mariners CBT payroll sits at $102MM, per Roster Resource, with their actual payroll even slimmer at $85MM. That leaves them roughly $5MM shy from 2020 payroll level. This winter, they handed out four Major League deals to free agent pitchers: Paxton, Ken Giles, Keynan Middleton, and Chris Flexen. Giles and Flexen received two-year pacts, though Giles will miss this upcoming season. The Mariners have not signed a position player to a Major League contract.

AL Notes: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Mariners

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The Blue Jays brought back Robbie Ray on a one-year, $8MM deal today, but recent history suggests they could still add more to the rotation writes Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca. Davidi notes that the Jays struck early last year in signing Chase Anderson, but that certainly didn’t slow their free agent activity. The Jays do seem to be fairly well stocked in the rotation, with Hyun Jin Ryu, Nate Pearson, and Tanner Roark more-or-less guaranteed to hold down rotation spots. Ross Stripling can also hang in the rotation, while Anthony Kay could get a look at some point, as could a whole host of arms from their Triple-A corps. The bullpen is stocked with former starters who can handle multiple innings at a time, which could allow someone like Pearson to see some time out there if he struggles to stay healthy while taking on more innings. That sort of strategy would make room for another arm or two if the Blue Jays like the price.

  • The Red Sox aren’t far enough along in their post-Mookie retooling to make a play for top shelf free agents, but that doesn’t mean they won’t be major players in free agency. With many holes to fill and few roster spots guaranteed, there is a universe in which the Red Sox bid on a number of free agents in the non-premium range. Peter Abraham of the Boston Globe runs through the free agent market by position to see where the Red Sox might be shopping. Low-cost veterans for the rotation like Tyler Chatwood, Chris Archer, or Garrett Richards could be on the docket for Boston, per Abraham.
  • Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto said he doesn’t expect next year to provide many starters at all who reach the 170-inning mark, per Ryan Divish of the Seattle Times. That’s certainly an interesting marker, given that it wasn’t that long ago that 200-inning campaigns were considered the standard bearer. It’s true that the Mariners might be more conservative than most in this regard: they’re planning to field a six-man rotation in 2021. In 2019, 51 pitchers crossed the 170-inning threshold. Still, Dipoto’s projection isn’t exactly laughable – nobody registered even 100 innings in the shortened season, and it’s might be unreasonable to expect starters to jump back to pre-COVID standards.

 

Three Teams Played Musical Chairs With First Basemen…And Five Teams Came Away Winners

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Last week, I looked at Cole Sulser’s prospects of making an impact in the Baltimore Orioles bullpen. Sulser found his way to Baltimore via Tampa Bay after being included in a three-way swap of more prominent players. Today, let’s take a look at those players. 

To review: in December of 2018, the Indians, Mariners, and Rays engaged in a three-way deal that shuffled around their first basemen. In this rare three-way challenge trade, each team came away with (at least one) major-league first baseman. The Rays got Yandy Diaz, the Mariners Edwin Encarnacion, while the Indians snagged a pair of first basemen in the deal: Jake Bauers and Carlos Santana. 

There were auxiliary pieces that fit less cleanly into our first basemen carousel. The Rays picked up Sulser from Cleveland, while Tampa also sent $5MM to the Mariners. Seattle paid that money forward, sending a total of $6MM to the Indians. Coming back to Seattle was the Indians’ Round B selection in the draft. The Mariners ended up selecting right-handed pitcher Isaiah Campbell out of Arkansas with the #76 pick in the draft. Those pieces aside, let’s check in on how each team is feeling about their end of this whirlwind deal one season after the fact.

Indians

This move – and much of their offseason last winter – was largely about shuffling money around – but not wholly so. The Indians took back Santana, who had only recently been sent to Seattle after playing one season in Philadelphia. Santana made $20.3MM in 2019, but his contract was offset by sending out Encarnacion, who was owed $21.7MM in 2019 with a $5MM buyout for 2020. The difference in their salaries, plus the money acquired from Seattle netted the Indians close to $7.5MM in 2019, though they took on more long-term money in Santana.

On the field, this deal basically amounts to two exchanges for the Indians: Santana over Encarnacion in terms of big-money players, and Bauers over Diaz for cost-controlled assets. As for the first exchange, the Indians have to count this as a win. After one so-so year with the Phillies, Santana returned to form in a big way with the Indians. All aspects of Santana’s game came together in 2019. He hit .281/.397/.515 on the year with 34 home runs and 110 RBIs. He turned in his typically strong BB-K numbers, posting identical walk and strikeout rates of 15.7% (slight improvements on his career norms in both departments). His isolated power (.234 ISO) was the second-highest mark of his career, while the .397 OBP was a new career-high for a full season. Santana’s season totaled 4.6rWAR/4.4 fWAR, good for 135 wRC+, and he’ll be back in their lineup for 2020.

Bauers, on the other hand, is a work in progress. He brings an added level of versatility, appearing in 31 games at first and 53 games in left, but he’ll need to improve at the plate to put that value to work. Bauers hit just .226/.312/.371 across 423 plate appearances in his first season with the Indians. His walk rate dropped to 10.6% and with a power mark of just .145 ISO. That’s not enough pop from a first baseman/left fielder. He finished with below-average marks of 78 wRC+ and -0.4 fWAR. Still, all hope is not lost for Bauers. A career-low .290 BABIP might point to some positive regression in the future, and he doesn’t even turn 25-years-old until October.

Mariners

The Mariners’ biggest get here was the draft pick. GM Jerry Dipoto continued his rebuild, and ultimately, the swap of sluggers was an avenue to add another draft pick. After taking on Santana a week prior, the Mariners shed long-term money by swapping in Encarnacion, whom they eventually flipped to the Yankees.

While with the Mariners, Encarnacion was about as good as expected, slashing .241/.356/.531 with 21 home runs in 65 games. With the rebuild in full swing, EE was never expected to spend a full season in Seattle. Given his start to the year, the Mariners’ return for the DH was a little underwhelming, but the market for teams in need of a designated hitter was limited. Still, Trader Jerry added right-hander Juan Then from the Yankees. Fangraphs ranks Then as the Mariners’ #13-ranked prospect after finishing the season in A-ball. Campbell, selected with the acquired draft choice, comes in at #16.

The Yankees and Mariners essentially split the remaining money owed Encarnacion at the time, so the M’s did see some financial benefit as well. It’s often difficult to track the wheeling and dealing done by Dipoto, but we can give it a go here. To do so, we have to go back to the deal that sent Santana from the Phillies to Seattle. Dipoto sent Jean Segura, Juan Nicasio, and James Pazos to Philly for Santana and J.P. Crawford. In sum, he started with Segura, Nicasio, and Pazos, and the Mariners ended up with Crawford, Then, and Campbell, along with some financial saving both in the short-and-long-term.

Rays

It was surprising to see the Rays move Jake Bauers at the time of this deal, but they’re no stranger to dealing from a young core. The Rays picked up Sulser and Diaz for Bauers in this trade, while also sending $5MM to the Mariners. Considering Sulser was eventually lost on waivers to the Orioles (though he did give them 7 scoreless innings in 2019), the move essentially amounts to the Rays paying $5MM to swap in Diaz for Bauers. At the time of the deal, Bauers was seen as an up-and-comer, while Diaz was a little-known 27-year-old utility player with little-to-no boom in his boomstick. As has often been the case of late with Rays’ trades, at a cursory glance, the Rays were trading away controllable youth for a role player.

But where the Rays are concerned, it’s often worth delving a little further. Diaz quickly became known for his above-average exit velocities. And while Diaz was a little older and without the prospect pedigree of Bauers, he came with similar team control, more versatility given his ability to line up at the hot corner, and his biceps have a cult following all their own.

Injuries unfortunately limited Diaz’s production in 2019, but when he was on the field, he was dynamite. While posting a line of .267/.340/.476 across 79 games, Diaz was coming into his own as a hitter with a 116 wRC+. Diaz’s minor league career to this point was a testament to his ability to get on base, limit strikeouts, and make hard contact, but a groundball-heavy approach limited his power.

But it was a different story in Tampa. Diaz produced a career-best .208 ISO to go with a 91.7 mph exit velocity that put him in the top 8% of the league, per Statcast. His hard-hit percentage continues to be well above average, and a small improvement in launch angle and a large jump in barrels led to Diaz smashing 14 home runs in 79 games after hitting just 1 in 88 big league games with the Indians.

Not only that, but Diaz returned from the injured list in time for the playoffs, leading off the wild card game with a solo shot off Sean Manaea. Diaz went deep his second time up as well, at which point the Rays had more than enough to get past the A’s. It was a monster performance from Diaz in the biggest game of the year up to that point. (Things didn’t go quite so well for Diaz in Houston, as he went 0 for 9 with four strikeouts in the ALDS.) The Rays have to feel pretty good about where they stand with Diaz moving forward, as he should continue to be a cheap source of offense for the next couple of seasons.

For that matter, all three teams have to feel pretty good about this deal, as they each accomplished their goal. If Bauers has a better showing in 2020 and the Mariners’ prospects come to fruition, there will ultimately be very little not to like about this three-way deal. Include the Orioles for nabbing Sulser and the Yankees for getting a half a season of Encarnacion, and it could be argued that five teams actually came away winners from this three-way swap of first baseman.

GM Trade History: Mariners’ Jerry Dipoto

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It seems we’ve reached the point in our GM Trade History series where someone at MLBTR has taken on the foolhardy, daunting task of re-chronicling the unyielding exploits of Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto — far and away the most active executive on MLB’s trade market. (What have I done?!) Commonly referred to as “Trader Jerry,” the seemingly tireless Dipoto has fueled hundreds of posts here at MLBTR (thanks, Jerry!) through a series of win-now moves, fringe roster tinkerings and, more recently, a “reimagining” of his organization.

Dipoto took the reins as the Mariners’ general manager at the conclusion of the 2015 campaign. Predecessor Jack Zduriencik had been unable to break the club’s mounting postseason drought, and ownership turned to a former division rival to try to turn things around. Dipoto held the GM post with the Angels from 2011-15 but saw a relatively publicized rift grow between himself and skipper Mike Scioscia over the manager’s unwillingness to utilize data from the club’s analytics department. The frustration boiled to the point where Dipoto resigned in early July despite reported attempts from owner Arte Moreno to persuade him to stay on board. Dipoto quickly landed an interim post in the Red Sox’ front office, and less than three months after walking away from the Angels, he was named the new GM in Seattle.

There’s a narrative that Dipoto’s constant activity rendered the Mariners’ farm bare early in his tenure, and while there’s probably some truth within that generalization, it’s equally important to note that he inherited a losing club with a relatively high payroll and an already-poor minor league system. That was four and a half years ago, though. How have things worked out for Dipoto since? Let’s take a (very long) look! Trades are in chronological order and exclude particularly minor swaps. (More details on each trade is available in the “acquired” link on each bullet.)

2015-16 Offseason

2016 Season

2016-17 Offseason

2017 Season

2017-18 Offseason

2018 Season

2018-19 Offseason

2019 Season

2019-20 Offseason

—

How do MLBTR readers feel about Dipoto’s landslide of trade activity? (Link to poll for Trade Rumors mobile app users.)

Interested in how other GMs hold up under this exercise? We’ve covered Diamondbacks GM Mike Hazen, recently fired Astros president Jeff Luhnow, Brewers president of baseball ops David Stearns, Angels GM Billy Eppler, Rockies GM Jeff Bridich, Tigers GM Al Avila, Braves GM Alex Anthopoulos and Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins as well.

West Notes: Diamondbacks, Marte, Marte, Mariners, Lewis, Kikuchi

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The Arizona Diamondbacks have put together one of the more intriguing rosters as we approach spring camp, and they’ve done so while maintaining flexibility. The Starling Marte acquisition, for instance, secures center field as GM Mike Hazen had hoped – secondarily allowing star Ketel Marte to stay at second base –  but that doesn’t mean Ketel’s days in center are done. The Martes could very well play side-by-side in the outfield against tough lefties while David Peralta or Kole Calhoun gets a breather, writes MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert. Most of Arizona’s bench hits from the left side, though Ildemaro Vargas, Domingo Leyba, and Andy Young can all hit righty, making them candidates to spell Marte at second when he vacates. Let’s jump the the Junior Circuit to check in on the Mariners…

  • Opportunity abounds in the Mariners outfield now that Mitch Haniger is set to miss opening day. With plenty of internal candidates to choose from, there’s no need for a reactionary signing in Seattle, though Executive VP and GM Jerry Dipoto never rules anything out. For now, Kyle Lewis has the inside track on left field, writes MLB.com’s Greg Johns. Lewis put together a mighty 75 plate appearances at the end of 2019 to stake his claim to the grass in 2020. The Haniger injury may mean more consistent at-bats for Mallex Smith in the early going, but the real growth opportunity exists for youngsters like Braden Bishop and Jake Fraley. It’s unclear how much time they’ll have to put their stamp on 2020, but the Mariners are likely to temper their expectations for Haniger’s return and enjoy the opportunity to preview Bishop and/or Fraley in the outfield. The Mariners also recently brought Eric Filia into their spring mix, who could earn a spot, while infielders Shed Long, Dee Gordon, Tim Lopes and Aaron Nola can capably shag fly balls as well.
  • Yusei Kikuchi put together a less-than-stellar inaugural season in Seattle, but he’s not a lost cause, writes Johns. The 28-year-old southpaw went 6-11 with a 5.46 ERA/5.71 FIP across 32 starts (161 2/3 innings) in 2020. Despite Kikuchi’s struggles and a lack of established rotation arms, the Mariners have less interest in extending their use of the Opener in 2020. A focus on relievers who can throw multiple innings will allow the Mariners to protect Kikuchi somewhat. Mostly, the Mariners envision progress through regression. Writes Johns, “…there is a feeling that he tinkered far too much with his arm angles and throwing motion — both over the course of the year and even during games — and needs to get back to just being himself and letting it rip as he did when he first arrived.”

AL Notes: Red Sox, Peraza, Mariners, Dipoto, Royals, Marklund

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Jose Peraza was almost a full win worse than replacement in 2019 (-0.9 bWAR, -0.6 fWAR), but the Red Sox signed him to a one-year, $3MM deal anyhow. The reason being the Red Sox see a speedy player who can play five positions who proved his competence against left-handed pitching even in a down year, per Alex Speier of the Boston Globe. His .269 xBA in 2019 also points to some bad luck (he finished with an actual batting average of just .239). Overlaying his spray chart over the Fenway Park map also suggests Peraza might benefit from the dimensions in Boston. All in all, the Red Sox don’t have the financial freedom this offseason to add a sure-thing superstar, and in Peraza they see a player coming off a down year capable of reaching another gear with a fresh start in Boston. Now, with a couple days left to lock in our new year’s resolutions, let’s check in elsewhere in the American League…

  • Seattle Mariners GM Jerry Dipoto did not let a blood clot scare keep him from swinging trades at last year’s winter meetings, but a year after the fact, those close to him do see changes in the man known as “Trader Jerry,” as told in this story from The Athletic’s Corey Brock. Since his stint in a Las Vegas hospital, Dipoto is taking better care of himself, sleeping more and better regulating a once-vigorous workout routine. He’s also been more collaborative with his assistant GMs, trusting them with more of the day-to-day trade discussions with other clubs. As when Jim Hendry signed Ted Lilly from his hospital bed, Dipoto’s bedside dealing has entered Mariners’ lore – but the reality is that Dipoto’s life was in danger, and without his co-workers there to help him to the hospital, there could have been a much more harrowing tale coming out of last year’s winter meetings.
  • Brandon Marklund has significantly improved his stock since signing up to play baseball in New Zealand for the Aukland Tautara, per The Athletic’s Alec Lewis.  Marklund caught the eye of a number of different organizations while pumping a 96mph heater for the Tautara, but it was the Royals’ Neil Burke who made the biggest push. Burke sums up his surprise in finding Marklund by saying, “What the heck is this Canadian kid who went to school somewhere in the States, who made his way out to New Zealand, who I’m watching pitch in Sydney, doing all the way out here in Australia?” The 23-year-old right-hander put up a sparkling 0.46 ERA in his first pro season stateside for the Royals’ Single-A affiliate.

Quick Hits: Astros, Mariners, Haniger, Hardy

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The investigation into misconduct on the part of the Houston Astros continues, with details of commissioner Rob Manfred’s process coming out yesterday. In the newest report from ESPN, Jeff Passan covers similar territory, while also providing further anecdotal evidence of the paranoia that exists in the league around the Astros’ alleged sign-stealing program. One particularly striking example described a starting pitcher who wanted to use a whole new system of pitch calling that would include “jersey pulls, hat tugs, head shakes and glove placements.” The Nationals, for their part, managed to overcome any potential sign-stealing by the Astros during this year’s World Series, though Washington came into those games armed with five separate sets of unique signs to help forestall any extra efforts made by the Astros. They did, of course, manage to win all four games played at Minute Maid Park. While this investigation continues, let’s check in on some player news…

  • The Mariners have an overcrowded, if not star-studded outfield picture coming into 2020, with veterans like Mallex Smith, Mitch Haniger, and Domingo Santana competing for playing time with youngsters hoping to establish their MLB credentials (Jake Fraley, Braden Bishop and Kyle Lewis). With Daniel Vogelbach locked into the designated hitter role, they are without that resource for at-bats, not to mention the further overpopulation that comes from rostering the versatile skillsets of Dee Gordon, Shed Long, Austin Nola, Dylan Moore, and Tim Lopes  – all of whom are capable of spending time on the grass. Regardless, GM Jerry Dipoto is not tempted to sell-low and trade Haniger, per MLB.com’s Greg Johns. Despite Haniger’s injury-riddled 2019, Dipoto has not softened on his fervor for Haniger as a cornerstone player. Johns quotes Dipoto as saying, “He embodies almost everything about what we stand for and what we’re trying to set up in our systems and our programs.” Dipoto foresees Haniger returning to right field this season and occupying one of the 2 through 4 spots in the batting order.
  • Lefty reliever Blaine Hardy has begun to attract interest on the free agent market, per MLB.com’s Jason Beck (via Twitter). Beck names the Twins as one team that has shown interest, though multiple organizations appear to be in on the ex-Tiger. Hardy, 33 in mid-March, was drafted by the Royals, but spent the entirety of his MLB career with the Tigers. After Detroit signed him to a minor league deal following the 2012 season, Hardy would make his major-league debut during the 2014 season, pitching to a 2.54 ERA across 38 appearances. Outside the 70 appearances he made in 2015, Hardy has been up-and-down most seasons, making between 21 and 39 appearances in the majors every year from 2016 to 2019. In all, he amassed 233 appearances across 6 seasons with the Tigers (13 starts in 2018) with a 3.73 ERA/4.11 FIP and pretty even splits between lefties and righties.

Jerry Dipoto Discusses Mariners’ Offseason

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It was four years ago today that Jerry Dipoto has hired as the Mariners’ general manager, and Dipoto has since become known for his trade-heavy style in his attempts to first build, and (in the last year) rebuild Seattle’s roster.  If 2019 was marked by Dipoto’s desire to “re-imagine” his team, 2020 promises more stability, as Dipoto told MLB.com’s Greg Johns and other reporters that he expects a more “moderate” offseason in terms of trades and signings.

“This will be a little different offseason than you’ve seen from us, particularly last year’s,” Dipoto said.  “But even years prior, 2016-18, we were so much about making peripheral moves to augment what we thought was a contending core. This is a different scenario. We’re growing a young core and we have to give them an opportunity to play.”

To that end, Dipoto felt it would be “very unlikely” that the team acquires any significant veterans this winter, as the Mariners intend to give plenty of playing time to their younger talents.  J.P. Crawford, Shed Long, Kyle Lewis, and Dan Vogelbach are some of the new faces who began to emerge in 2019, and all project to be more or less everyday players next season.  While Dipoto did say the M’s were “likely not to be very engaged in the trade market in more than a peripheral way,” that was in regards to the addition of new players, and he didn’t address the possibility of further trades of veterans (i.e. Domingo Santana or Dee Gordon) to create even more roster room.

In terms of what veterans could be added, both the pitching rotation and bullpen could get some lower-level veteran depth.  More player additions in general could come via minor league signings and the Rule 5 Draft.

The Mariners’ roster already looks vastly different than it did just a year ago.  Robinson Cano, Edwin Diaz, Jean Segura, James Paxton, Alex Colome, Mike Leake, and Juan Nicasio are just some of the bigger names who have departed the team in a variety of trades, resulting in a lot of additional minor league depth and a much lesser payroll (the M’s have just under $80MM on the books for 2020).  Dipoto has hinted at 2021 as a soft deadline for the Mariners to begin turning back towards contention, though much will hinge on how their younger players develop next season.

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