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John Means

Examining The Orioles Rotation

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For the first time in a few years, the Baltimore Orioles plan to begin the 2021 season with a rotation that fans can dream on. They’re not quite ready to challenge the Yankees or the Rays for the division, but neither will their roster be flooded with journeymen and July trade candidates – at least not entirely.

Make no mistake, the Orioles will count as a surprise if they don’t finish in fifth place in the East, but songs of progress are sung in many different keys. The Orioles are entering Year Three under GM Mike Elias, which under most circumstances should call for the beginnings of the organization’s on-field transformation. Last year’s 25-35 record was a step in the right direction after back-to-back 100-loss seasons, but that still put them on a roughly 95-loss pace over a full campaign.

Progress for the Orioles this season begins in the rotation where youngsters Dean Kremer and Keegan Akin plan to slot behind John Means and Alex Cobb, per MASNsports.com’s Roch Kubatko. Means and Cobb hardly make for a bone-chilling front of the rotation, but there ought not to be much question about their ability to stick in the rotation for a full season.

Means has been worth roughly 2.2 bWAR per 150 innings over his first two seasons, though there’s a stark contrast between his first half of 2019 and the time since. The 33-year-old Cobb, meanwhile, returned to form in 2020 with a 4.30 ERA/4.87 FIP in 52 1/3 innings over 10 starts. He’s a back-end starter at this point and could serve as eventual trade bait, but at least for the first half of the season, he ought to help protect the bullpen from overuse.

Where Means and Cobb secure the floor, Akin and Kremer raise the ceiling. The right-handed Kremer made four starts in 2020 with a 4.82 ERA/2.76 FIP. He struggled a bit with command (5.8 BB/9), but a high-spin fastball deployed up and a cutter with 4.4 inches of horizontal movement helped him secure 10.6 K/9 in his first taste of big league action. Kremer came to the Orioles as part of the Manny Machado package, but his slider looked like a difference-making pitch at the time, and his arsenal has shifted in the years since.

What that means isn’t yet clear. There’s been some question about whether Kremer has stuff enough to stick in the rotation long-term, but the Orioles are going to give the soon-to-be 25-year-old a chance. Internally, he might be their best chance for a first-division rotation type before prospects like Grayson Rodriguez and DL Hall start arriving in a couple years.

The southpaw Akin boasts a similar profile, but from the other side. Both pitchers surrendered hard contact in 2020, but they still showed enough to manage a spot in the rotation. If either one can build on their 2020 performance to take firm hold of rotation innings, the Orioles could continue to grow their win totals in 2021. On the other hand, none of the front four seem particularly likely to develop into a frontline arm. They still seek high-impact talent in that department. The Orioles rotations ranked 19th in fWAR, 23rd in ERA and 24th in FIP, so they’ll need to improve to make much hay in the American League.

On the offensive end, Adley Rutschman has the chance to be the kind of impact player an organization can rally around. The former first overall draft choice will begin 2021 in Double-A, noted Kubatko. As Rutchschman nears, Elias should feel some pressure to field a competitive team around him. Even if Akin and Kremer aren’t exactly Johnson and Schilling, they can begin to lay the groundwork for a professional roster.

Orioles Select Pat Valaika, Place John Means On Injured List

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The Orioles have selected the contract of infielder Pat Valaika, per a club announcement. He’ll join the 40-man and active rosters to open the season. Baltimore also placed lefty John Means on the injured list alongside righties Hunter Harvey and Dillon Tate.

A career .214/.256/.400 hitter who has shown plenty of pop from the right side of the dish, Valaika has experience at each of second base, shortstop and third base. However, he’s also punched out in nearly 29 percent of his trips to the plate in the big leagues, which has contributed significantly to his inability to reach base at a passable rate. Valaika does have a minor league option remaining and a career .275/.315/.498 slash 695 Triple-A plate appearances, making him a reasonable depth option for the rebuilding Orioles to carry on the roster even if he doesn’t break camp with the club this spring.

Means, last year’s AL Rookie of the Year runner-up, would’ve been Baltimore’s Opening Day starter but has been slowed recently by some arm fatigue. The organization has downplayed its severity and noted that Means had a similar issue last year that caused him to miss only one start. For the time being, there’s no indication that they expect the absence to be lengthy, but it’s nonetheless a tough blow to the young lefty, who enjoyed an out-of-the-blue breakout last season and was surely honored by the Opening Day nod. That start will go to journeyman left-hander Tommy Milone instead.

Harvey, once one of MLB’s top prospects, has seen his career decimated by injury but has worked his way back into Baltimore’s bullpen mix after several lost seasons. He could very well be in the team’s closer mix at some point this year or next, assuming he’s healthy. Tate, too, is another former high-end prospect and was a top-five overall draft pick that simply hasn’t developed as hoped. The Orioles are his third club — he went from the Rangers to the Yankees in the Carlos Beltran swap and then the Yankees to the O’s in the Zack Britton trade. At this point, the hope is that Tate, like Harvey, can emerge as a late-inning bullpen piece.

Injury Notes: Rendon, Altuve, Hamels, Cubs, Orioles

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The Angels aren’t sure whether third baseman and top winter acquisition Anthony Rendon will be ready when they open their season Friday, Rhett Bollinger of MLB.com relays. Rendon, a former Nationals star whom the Angels signed to a seven-year, $245MM contract in free agency, has been dealing with oblique soreness since last week. If he’s not able to take the field in a few days, the Angels are expected to use David Fletcher and Matt Thaiss at the hot corner, per Bollinger. The Angels’ infield could also be missing Luis Rengifo, who Bollinger writes stands a “strong chance” of sitting out the opener on account of hamstring soreness.

  • Astros second baseman Jose Altuve left the team’s preseason game against the Royals on Tuesday with a left leg contusion, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com reports. There’s now some question as to whether the former MVP will be healthy enough to go when the Astros’ season starts. “We’re hopeful he’ll be ready on Friday,” manager Dusty Baker said. “We’ll analyze him tomorrow and see where he is in the morning. Usually the day after that, you’re pretty sore.”
  • “It’s going to be a while” before left-hander Cole Hamels debuts in 2020, Braves manager Brian Snitker said Tuesday (via Mark Bowman of MLB.com). Hamels dealt with shoulder inflammation during spring training and has recently battled triceps tendinitis, thereby preventing him from facing live hitters over the past several months. Considering how short this season will be, the Braves may have trouble getting much bang for their buck out of Hamels. They inked the longtime workhorse to a one-year, $18MM contract over the winter. That guarantee turned into approximately a prorated $7MM when the season went from 162 games to 60.
  • Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who has been fighting rib and back issues, seems to be progressing. Manager David Ross said Tuesday (via Jordan Bastian of MLB.com) that it “looks like all thumbs up from today” in regards to Rizzo. He’s slated to start the team’s exhibition game against Minnesota on Wednesday. Meanwhile, southpaw  Jose Quintana – who underwent surgery on his left thumb three weeks ago – issued an encouraging update on his status (per Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune), saying he’s not feeling any pain. It remains unclear when he’ll be able to take the mound this season, though.
  • Orioles left-hander John Means will miss Opening Day because of arm fatigue, Joe Trezza of MLB.com tweets. As a result, offseason minor league signing and fellow southpaw Tommy Milone will start the Orioles’ opener against Boston on Friday. It’s not known when Means will be able to debut in 2020, but the Orioles are surely hoping it will be sooner than later. The 27-year-old Means was one of the few bright spots on Baltimore’s talent-deprived roster last season, after all, as he logged a 3.60 ERA/4.41 FIP with 7.03 K/9 and 2.21 BB/9 across 155 innings.

Did The Orioles Find A Rotation Building Block Out Of Nowhere?

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A team in a total rebuild is open to giving any player a chance, particularly when that team is drastically short on starting pitching.  With the Orioles in such a state in April 2019, it paved the way for John Means to enter the Orioles’ rotation, on the heels of three relief outings earlier that season and one (disastrous) 3 1/3-inning appearance in his Major League debut on September 26, 2018.  That outing saw Means surrender five earned runs, giving him an ugly 13.50 ERA heading into the 2019 campaign.

Means didn’t exactly force his way into the rotation during Spring Training, with only a 5.40 ERA over 13 1/3 frames of 2019 Grapefruit League action.  Still, the southpaw did manage 15 strikeouts against just four walks, and given the lack of other pitching options available in Baltimore, the O’s figured it was worth giving Means a shot.

The result was one of the only bright spots of a 108-loss season for the Orioles.  Over 27 outings and 147 1/3 innings as a starting pitcher, Means posted a 3.73 ERA, 3.09 K/BB rate, and 6.6 K/9.  The majority of that production came in the first half of the season, as Means carried a 2.50 ERA through his first 82 2/3 innings and ended up as Baltimore’s All-Star representative.

Means struggled to a 8.34 ERA in his first five post-break starts, though he did manage to get on track with a 3.26 ERA over his final 49 2/3 frames of his rookie season.  As a nod to his breakout performance, Means finished second in AL Rookie Of The Year voting, albeit a distant runner-up behind unanimous winner Yordan Alvarez.

Whenever (or if) the 2020 season gets underway, Means will stand as the de facto ace of the Orioles’ staff — an unlikely development given where he was slightly more than a year ago.  An 11th-round pick in the 2014 draft, Means moved through the farm system with unspectacular but solid numbers over his 622 2/3 minor league innings, posting a 3.83 ERA, 7.1 K/9, and 3.50 K/BB rate.  There isn’t much variance in Means’ year-to-year cumulative stats in the minors, or even in his MLB numbers in 2019.

That type of consistency gives the O’s some hope that Means can at least somewhat replicate his 2019 performance going forward, despite some of the red flags raised by advanced metrics.  Means’ ERA predictors weren’t impressive, with a FIP (4.41), xFIP (5.48), and SIERA (5.02) that were all markedly higher than his actual 3.60 ERA.  The lack of a high strikeout total hurts Means in this respect, and he also isn’t a hard thrower (average fastball velocity of 91.8 mph) or a ground-ball machine.

What he does offer is the ability to limit the damage when opposing batters do hit his offerings.  As per Statcast, Means finished in the 90th percentile of all pitchers in fewest hard-hit balls allowed, while also sitting comfortably above average (72nd percentile) in exit velocity.  Means also had only a 9.9% homer/fly ball rate last season, the fourth-lowest mark of any pitcher in baseball with at least 150 IP and a particularly useful skill for a hurler in the tough AL East.

Means’ heater isn’t particularly fast, though he does generate some good spin, as indicated by his spot in the 75th percentile of fastball spin rate.  His top pitch, however, is a changeup that Fangraphs ranked as one of the best in the league last season.  Only six pitchers with 150+ innings thrown had a better pitch value score on a changeup than Means’ +12.3 number.

Means just turned 27 yesterday and is under team control through the 2024 season (and not arbitration-eligible until the 2021-22 offseason), giving the O’s plenty of flexibility with his future.  Given the long rebuild ahead for the Orioles, it may be a reach to count on Means to still be a productive member of the rotation by the time Baltimore is next ready to contend, so the O’s could eventually consider him as a trade chip.

There wasn’t much buzz about Means on the rumor mill this past winter, as while Baltimore is still at the point of its rebuild that any trade option must be considered, the club might prefer to see what they have with the left-hander in his sophomore year.  A case could be made that the O’s should have sold high on Means given his lack of a track record, and yet even with some regression baked into his future numbers, the potential of Means being a solid innings-eater going forward carries a lot of value.  For a team with so little pitching depth on hand, an unheralded prospect blossoming into at least a decent MLB-level arm counts as a big success.

Orioles Notes: Means, Holt, Bundy

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Orioles lefty John Means ascended from 40-man filler to building block in less than a year’s time, and the All-Star rookie sat down with MLB.com’s Joe Trezza to discuss his remarkable season. Candidly, Means revealed that he was expecting to be designated for assignment to clear 40-man space last winter. He’d made an emergency September start, allowing five runs in 3 1/3 innings, and was never considered much of a prospect within the system. Means attributes much of his breakout to a rigorous offseason program with P3 Premier Performance & Pitching, where he was able to boost his velocity, and Spring Training work with minor league pitching coordinator Chris Holt that led to an improved changeup. He’ll return to P3 this winter and spoke with determination when discussing ways in which he can further improve.

“I was never supposed to be here,” said the southpaw. “I wasn’t a first rounder. I wasn’t a prospect. I wasn’t someone who was supposed to do well. So when you have your success, you want to keep it going. That might take you to a certain level, but it won’t take you over the top or over the hump.” In 155 innings this season, the 26-year-old Means logged a 3.60 ERA with 7.0 K/9, 2.2 BB/9 and a 30.9 percent grounder rate. He’s controlled through 2024.

More out of Baltimore as the gears of a rebuild continue to turn…

  • Speaking of Holt, he’s being promoted from minor league pitching coordinator to the organization’s director of pitching, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. In the new role, he’ll have a much larger impact on the big league club and work more closely with returning pitching coach Doug Brocail. Holt came to the Orioles from the Astros alongside GM Mike Elias last offseason. He previously served as Houston’s assistant pitching coordinator but looks increasingly like a rising influence in his new organization, as Kubatko details. He’ll continue to oversee individualized development plans for the team’s minor league pitchers but will now have input on the MLB arms in a season that figures to see several younger arms emerge at the big league level.
  • Dylan Bundy’s once-blistering fastball has faded early in his career as he’s worked through myriad injuries, but the right-hander spoke with Jon Meoli of the Baltimore Sun about his plans to continue working through the lost velocity and alter his pitch mix. Bundy cited Zack Greinke as a model he’d like to follow and explained how he began to favor his offspeed pitches more frequently as the season wore on (and, as Meoli notes, as his production improved). Bundy acknowledged plenty of room for improvement in his bottom-line numbers but spoke confidently about his ability to eventually make things work with a lesser fastball. “Now it’s staying healthy and keep learning what I learned this year about the way I pitched now, just continuing to improve,” he said. “…I think if I pitch at 92-93, 91 even, and locate it, use my other pitches, then I’ve been told that the heater plays up because of that other stuff.” Bundy, controlled by the Orioles through 2021, pitched to a 4.79 ERA with 9.0 K/9, 3.2 BB/9, 1.61 HR/9 and a career-high 41.5 percent grounder rate in 161 2/3 innings this year. He’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $5.7MM in 2020.

John Means Hires Wasserman Agency

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Breakout Orioles left-hander John Means has hired the Wasserman Agency to represent him, as MLBTR’s own Tim Dierkes reports on Twitter. Agent Sam Samardzija will take the lead in handling Means’s business.

[RELATED: MLBTR Agency Database]

The 26-year-old Means came into the pro ranks as an 11th-round pick. He took a steady path to the majors, never really standing out as a particularly notable organizational prospect. But he cracked the bigs in 2018 and earned a longer look with the rebuilding O’s this spring.

Giving Means a full audition proved wise for the new Baltimore front office. He has rewarded the organization with 98 frames of 3.12 ERA pitching, with 7.2 K/9 against 2.5 BB/9, while picking up a rare rookie All-Star nod. Means still has quite a bit to prove — ERA estimators are far less bullish than his results — but he has been able to induce a good bit of mediocre contact to this point. Statcast credits him with a .299 xwOBA-against that’s nearly identical to the .298 wOBA produced by opposing hitters.

Having cracked the Orioles roster to open the present season, Means will end the year with a full season of service (plus a few days from last year). That puts him on course to potentially reach arbitration in advance of the 2022 season.

Of more immediate concern, it seems Means has bounced back well from a minor recent arm issue. As Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports on Twitter, the Baltimore southpaw is expected to throw a full bullpen session in the coming days. He hopes to come off of the IL to take a start next Tuesday or Wednesday.

AL East Notes: Red Sox, Mancini, Means, Rays

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Despite a depleted farm system and a payroll that is dangerously close to crossing the $246MM maximum luxury tax penalty line for the second straight year, the Red Sox have “confidence” that “they can make an impactful deal before the deadline,” ESPN.com’s Buster Olney tweets.  The Sox picked up Andrew Cashner earlier this month, though they still have needs in the bullpen and rotation, plus possibly the bench.  Relief pitching seems to be Boston’s top priority, given that the club has been linked to such names as Kirby Yates, Ken Giles, and Daniel Hudson on the rumor mill.

To this end, Olney opines that the Mets’ Edwin Diaz could doubly fit Boston as a prominent upgrade at relatively low cost, as Diaz isn’t arbitration-eligible until this offseason.  Then again, several other teams are interested in Diaz, and since the Mets have put a big price tag on the closer despite his struggles in 2019, the Red Sox might not have the minor league depth to win a bidding war.

More from around the AL East…

  • The Orioles are discussing Trey Mancini with “multiple suitors,” MLB Network’s Jon Morosi (Twitter link).  I looked at Mancini as a trade candidate back in May, and he has kept raking ever since, with 24 homers and a .279/.338/.531 slash line over 429 plate appearances this season.  Mancini isn’t eligible for free agency until after the 2022 season, though since the O’s may not be out of rebuilding mode even in three years’ time, it makes sense that they would see if they could strike a big deal while Mancini’s value may be at its highest.
  • Orioles left-hander John Means is hopeful that his current stint on the injured list will only result in a single missed start, as he told MLB.com’s Joe Trezza and other reporters that an MRI on his left biceps didn’t reveal any structural damage, and only minor rotator cuff inflammation.  Means has been one of the few bright spots on the pitching front for Baltimore this season, posting a 3.12 ERA over 98 innings and representing the O’s in the All-Star team.
  • Sunday’s three-player trade between the Rays and Indians was likely inspired by both a 40-man roster crunch, and July 31 being the new absolute trade deadline this season, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal writes (Twitter links).  Both Hunter Wood and Christian Arroyo were out of options next season, plus the Rays needed to create at least one 40-man roster opening for the newly-acquired Eric Sogard plus any other players they could add in trades before the deadline.  Plus, Tyler Glasnow and Anthony Banda need 40-man spots when they’re activated off the 60-day injured list.  In past years, the Rays could have dealt with Glasnow and Banda’s situations in August when they were ready to be activated, but this year, they felt the need to act early to create roster space rather than designate the likes of Wood or Arroyo in August and lose them for nothing on a waiver claim.  It will be interesting to see if we get more deals of this ilk over the next few days, as teams look to do some roster clearance now since their options are so limited after July 31.

Orioles Designate Nate Karns, Promote Dillon Tate, Place John Means On IL

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The Orioles announced multiple pitching moves this evening. One player is now likely headed out of the organization, as righty Nate Karns was reinstated from the 60-day injured list and designated for assignment.

Young hurler Dillon Tate, the former fourth overall pick, was promoted for his first attempt at the majors. Righty Evan Phillips will accompany Tate onto the active roster.

Unfortunately, the O’s also announced that southpaw starter and rookie All-Star John Means was placed on the 10-day injured list with a biceps strain. Lefty Tanner Scott was optioned down to create the other necessary roster opening.

Karns landed with the Baltimore organization over the winter. He threw 5 1/3 scoreless frames to open his tenure but hit the shelf early with a forearm strain. The 31-year-old struggled mightily on his rehab assignment, dishing out ten walks and recording only five strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings.

It’s also unwelcome news as concerns Means. It had already been a bit of a rough month, as his ERA has moved north from 2.50 to 3.12, but it’s never preferable to hear of any issues in the arm of a young pitcher. There’s no indication as of yet regarding the severity, but the club will surely hope it’s only a minor blip for the 26-year-old.

As he prepares to debut at 25 years of age, Tate won’t face the massive expectations he once did. Arm issues and inconsistencies have changed the trajectory of the twice-traded righty. He has been solid at Double-A, working to a 3.48 ERA with 8.0 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9 over 33 2/3 innings in 15 relief appearances and a pair of starts.

Orioles Designate Dan Straily, Place John Means On IL

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The Orioles have designated right-hander Dan Straily for assignment, as per a team announcement.  The move is one of a series of transactions for the O’s, as the club also placed southpaw John Means on the 10-day injured list (retroactive to June 17) with a left shoulder strain, reinstated Dwight Smith Jr. from the 10-day IL and recalled righty Evan Phillips from Triple-A.

Today’s news ends Straily’s brief time in Baltimore after 47 2/3 innings and a disappointing 9.82 ERA.  After the Marlins surprisingly released Straily near the end of Spring Training, the O’s inked the righty to a $575K one-year deal to fill a hole in their shaky rotation.  Unfortunately, Straily simply never got on track either as a starter or as a reliever, as his career-long flyball tendencies bit him especially hard at Camden Yards.  Straily has already allowed a whopping 22 homers during his brief time on the mound this season — for perspective’s sake, Dylan Bundy allowed a league-high 41 homers in 2018, though that was over 171 2/3 innings.

There was enough interest in Straily after his release from Miami that you would figure he’d get some looks now that he is on the market again, as the veteran posted decent numbers for the Reds and Marlins from 2016-18.  Another Major League contract doesn’t seem as likely, however, as Straily seems like a candidate for a minor league deal with a team that will try to iron out his flyball problems down on the farm.

In terms of pure results, Means has been the lone bright spot on the Orioles’ struggling rotation this year, with a 2.67 ERA, 2.81 K/BB rate, and 7.5 K/9 over 70 2/3 innings.  ERA indicators (4.08 FIP, 5.07 xFIP, 4.67 SIERA) hint at some serious regression, though Means hasn’t allowed much in the way of hard contract, with only a .309 xwOBA and .299 wOBA.

Orioles Select John Means

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The Orioles announced Monday that they’ve selected the contract of left-hander John Means from Triple-A Norfolk. In order to open a spot on the 40-man roster, Baltimore recalled outfielder Austin Hays and placed him on the Major League 60-day disabled list. Hays underwent ankle surgery earlier this month.

Means, 25, split the 2018 season between Double-A (46 innings) and Triple-A (111 1/3 innings), working to a combined 3.72 ERA with with 7.4 K/9 against just 1.8 BB/9. He’s not considered to be among the organization’s top prospects, but he’d have been Rule 5 eligible this offseason after a solid season in the upper minors. Given the thin state of the team’s pitching depth, the Orioles likely would’ve added him to the 40-man roster this winter anyhow.

[Related: Baltimore Orioles depth chart]

Means has worked almost exclusively as a starter throughout his career since being selected in the 11th round of the 2014 draft, and he’ll quite likely be in the mix for a spot on the big league roster next spring. At present, Dylan Bundy, Alex Cobb and Andrew Cashner are the three locks for rotation spots in 2018, health permitting, with Means, Josh Rogers, Luis Ortiz, David Hess, Jimmy Yacabonis and Yefry Ramirez among the names who’ll vie for additional opportunities. It’s also possible that Means could eventually be looked at as a potential bullpen piece; he held left-handed opponents to an awful .209/.246/.312 line in 2018 but yielded a .295/.331/.423 slash to opposing righties.

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