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Jon Lester

NL Notes: Lester, deGrom, Keller, Dietrich

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There’s no denying that Jon Lester has produced top-level results for the Cubs, but his peripherals reveal some cause for concern, as Jay Jaffe of Fangraphs writes in a detailed analysis of the veteran hurler that’s well worth your time. Suffice to say that Jaffe provides ample support for his conclusion that Lester is probably due for some significant regression. Of course, there’s not much for the Cubs to do here but continue riding Lester, who would still be a productive pitcher even if he falls back to last year’s earned-run levels. But it does seem notable that Lester’s 4.33 ERA in 2017 came with better grades from ERA estimators (4.10 FIP/3.85 xFIP/4.07 SIERA) than he has received to this point in 2018 (4.08 FIP/4.46 xFIP/4.51 SIERA).

Here’s more from the National League:

  • Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic argued recently (subscription link) that the Mets ought to try to get a long-term deal done with righty Jacob deGrom rather than shopping him this summer. Of course, such a move would be dependent upon the hurler’s own preferences, too, and may not be practicable in the middle of the season. Pursuing a new deal with deGrom would seem to imply an ongoing effort to contend in upcoming seasons, despite the organization’s recent disappointments. In that regard, Rosenthal’s related suggestion — that the team dangle co-ace Noah Syndergaard this summer instead — seems tough to square with that strategy. Syndergaard is younger, cheaper, and more controllable than deGrom. But his present value is likely lower, since he has dealt with significant injury issues of late. For a team in the Mets’ situation, a strategic choice to keep (and try to extend) deGrom would seem to support the retention of Syndergaard as well. Regardless, it’s an interesting situation. One key element in potential contract talks is deGrom’s relatively advanced age. Rosenthal’s colleague Tim Britton did a nice job breaking down a potential extension price tag in another recent subscription piece, suggesting a five-year arrangement (two arb years plus three would-be free-agent campaigns) structured in the same essential manner as Jake Arrieta’s contract with the Phillies (that is, with an opt-out provision that the team can void by adding more money to the deal). Whether there’s any interest in such a deal, on either side, really isn’t clear at this stage.
  • The Diamondbacks seem to have whiffed on righty Brad Keller, who was lost to the Royals via the Rule 5 draft and has now thrown 48 innings of 2.25 ERA ball on the year. Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic examines the topic from the perspective of the Arizona organization, noting that it seems the roster flexibility was there to protect Keller had the team made him a priority. GM Mike Hazen says that the Snakes liked the 22-year-old, but faced other considerations. “We made the conscious decision not to add him because of where he was in proximity to the major-league team, where we were in the cycle, what we wanted to use our 40-man spots for, we wanted to be aggressive in the offseason in claiming guys … that were closer to the big leagues in our mind,” Hazen explained.
  • Marlins outfielder Derek Dietrich is looking increasingly like a useful trade asset, Clark Spencer of the Miami Herald writes. The left-handed hitter has been on fire at the plate of late, running up his batting line to .303/.354/.491 in 294 plate appearances on the year. To be fair, he’s also walking less, striking out more, and carrying a heftier BABIP than usual, but Dietrich has produced a career-best 38.3% hard-hit rate this season as well. It’s also easy to forget that he has produced quite a bit in prior campaigns; indeed, he’s a 118 OPS+ hitter since the start of 2015. A substantial portion of that output came against right-handed pitching, though he has swung well against southpaws this year, his first as a true regular. Soon to turn 29, Dietrich is earning only $2.9MM in 2018 and can be controlled for two more seasons beyond the present one. He has never been regarded as a particularly good defender, but is capable of lining up in the corner outfield and infield as well as at second base — versatility that will appeal to some contenders but also to a Marlins team facing an uncertain future. All told, there are some clear limitations to Dietrich’s value, but there’s also quite a lot to like about the player.

NL Central Notes: Kang, Pirates, Lester, Arrieta, Diaz

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Pirates infielder Jung Ho Kang discussed his attempt to return to the majors with Jee-ho Yoo of Yonhap (here and here). Kang derailed his career when he drove under the influence of alcohol in his native Korea — the third time he has been arrested for a DUI — with a subsequent conviction leaving him unable to obtain a visa to work in the United States. Now, as he prepares to play in the Dominican Winter League, Kang says he hopes “to become a better person and a better player.” Whether or not he’ll be able to return to action in the majors — in 2018 or beyond — will ultimately depend upon the U.S. government.

  • In a piece that’s not altogether unrelated to Kang’s situation, Bill Brink of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette analyzes the thin margin of error the Pirates front office has to work with in light of the team’s still-limited payroll. GM Neal Huntington notes the need to find “significant value outside of the free-agent market” as well as the imperative to “get more than just a dollar-for-dollar value” in free agency. The piece highlights the challenges facing the just-extended executive as he seeks to position the Bucs for contention once again.
  • Needless to say, the Cubs have seen some ups and downs from their rotation this year. Now, it’s key lefty Jon Lester who is struggling to find answers, as Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com writes. The battle-tested veteran has not been very effective since returning from the DL at the start of September; things came to a head last night, as he allowed seven earned runs on eight hits and three hits without recording a strikeout. Lester declined to blame any physical limitations and says he’s “not worried about” the middling results, noting that he simply needs to make adjustments as he has over the course of his successful career.
  • The Cubs will hope that Jake Arrieta is sharper when he makes his own return from the DL. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times writes that the veteran righty, who went on the shelf right as Lester came back, feels his arm strength may actually have improved after getting some rest due to a hamstring injury. Arrieta is scheduled for two more regular-season outings, though Chicago will wait to make any final calls on the last few games of the year.
  • Shortstop Aledmys Diaz is back with the Cardinals after an extended run at Triple-A, but as Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes, his role with the organization — now and in the future — is quite uncertain. Diaz has moved around the infield a bit at Triple-A, perhaps creating some new versatility, though he continued to struggle at the plate. With Paul DeJong now seemingly ensconced at short, Diaz will need to carve out a new role or wait for an opportunity to open with the Cards or, perhaps, some other organization.

Cubs Place Jon Lester On Disabled List

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The Cubs announced that they’ve placed left-hander Jon Lester and right-hander Justin Grimm on the 10-day disabled list due to left shoulder fatigue and an infected right index finger, respectively. It’s the first trip to the disabled list for Lester since 2011. Left-hander Rob Zastryzny and right-hander Felix Pena have been recalled from Triple-A Iowa to fill the two roster spots.

Lester was rocked for nine runs (seven earned) on seven hits and a walk in 1 2/3 innings yesterday against the Reds, and his afternoon ended with him calling for the trainer to come to the mound. The Cubs expect Lester to return by Sept. 1, writes USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, and manager Joe Maddon didn’t sound overly concerned when discussing the injury with Nightengale and other reporters.

While even a short-term injury for Lester is significant for a Cubs team that has a small 1.5-game lead on the NL Central, the fact that the 33-year-old doesn’t have any structural damage in his shoulder comes as a relief for the club. For the time being, fellow southpaw Mike Montgomery will step into Chicago’s rotation. Zastryzny, then, will fill Montgomery’s spot and give Maddon an additional lefty in the ’pen behind Justin Wilson and Brian Duensing.

The 2017 season has been a struggle for Grimm, 29, who served as a solid setup piece for the Cubs from 2014-16 but has limped to a 5.40 ERA through 43 1/3 innings this year. Grimm has seen his K/9 rate dip from better than 11.0 to 9.6 in 2017. His BB/9 rate has also spiked to 4.8, and he’s been more homer-prone than ever before in his career.

Injury Notes: Lester, Wainwright, Cervelli, Feldman, Tomas

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Jon Lester’s start yesterday lasted just 1 2/3 innings and ended with the Cubs lefty calling for the trainer before exiting with an 8-0 deficit. The Cubs’ initial diagnosis on Lester was tightness in his left lat muscle, though he headed out to see a specialist in Chicago yesterday afternoon. Following that examination, the Cubs are hopeful that Lester will only miss one to two starts, according to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune. Even a quick absence of that nature could mean a 10-day DL stint for Lester, and Sullivan notes that left-hander Mike Montgomery would step into the rotation in the interim.

A few more notable injury updates from around the league…

  • Adam Wainwright is on his way back to St. Louis to have his arm examined by Cardinals team physicians, Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch writes. Wainwright allowed five runs in three innings yesterday and has been plagued by persistent pain in his elbow when pitching. MLB.com’s Jenifer Langosch notes that Wainwright hasn’t reached 90 mph in either of his past two starts and has yielded nine runs on 15 hits and nine walks with just one strikeout in his past 11 innings (Twitter link). Wainwright recently spent a bit more than two weeks on the disabled list due to a back injury.
  • The Pirates announced yesterday that Francisco Cervelli has been placed on the 10-day disabled list (retroactive to Aug. 14) due to inflammation in his left wrist. Infielder Max Moroff is up from Triple-A Indianapolis to take Cervelli’s spot on the roster for now. Catcher Elias Diaz was already with the Pirates due to Cervelli’s lingering wrist pain, and he’ll split time with Chris Stewart behind the plate in Cervelli’s absence. It’s an ill-timed injury for the fading Bucs, who have lost five games in a row and are now 5.5 games out of the division lead.
  • The knee injury that landed Reds righty Scott Feldman on the disabled list last month has resurfaced and could potentially end his season, writes Zach Buchanan of the Cincinnati Enquirer. Feldman was candid in telling the Cincinnati media, “If it doesn’t get any better, I don’t think I can pitch like that anymore.” Feldman served up five homers to the Cubs in fewer than four innings before exiting yesterday’s game. Feldman’s fastball was sitting at 82 mph in that rocky outing, Buchanan notes, and the veteran acknowledged that he’s “not really feeling too confident” about the outlook of the injury. This isn’t Feldman’s first bout of troubles with his right knee; the right-hander underwent microfracture surgery on that same knee back in 2011 and tore a meniscus in that same knee four years later with the Astros.
  • Diamondbacks outfielder Yasmany Tomas has suffered a second setback in his recovery from a groin injury and is traveling to Philadelphia to meet with a specialist on Monday, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. Tomas has been out since June 2 with a groin issue and already had to shut down one rehab assignment when he incurred a new (and more severe) injury in a different area of his groin, Piecoro writes. The 26-year-old Tomas was hitting .241/.291/.464 with eight homers through 180 plate appearances at the time of his injury.

Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello Win Cy Young Awards

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Max Scherzer of the Nationals and Rick Porcello of the Red Sox have won the Cy Young Awards in their respective leagues, the Baseball Writers Association of America announced tonight.

That’s the second time the 32-year-old has taken home the hardware, though his prior award came in the American League (in 2013, with the Tigers). Scherzer led the N.L. with 228 1/3 innings, twenty wins, and a 0.968 WHIP. He ended the year with 2.96 ERA with 11.2 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9.

That showing was good enough to beat out Cubs hurlers Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks — who finished second and third, respectively. Scherzer ended up with 25 of the 30 first-place votes, reflecting a strong consensus, but in truth it was a widespread field full of worthwhile contenders. That includes the absurdly dominant Clayton Kershaw, who probably would have run away with the award had he not missed a dozen starts due to injury, and the dearly departed Jose Fernandez, who garnered down-ballot consideration after a dominant season that ended in tragedy.

Porcello’s win came over fellow finalists Justin Verlander of the Tigers and Corey Kluber of the Indians. All were worthy contenders in a year in which nobody put up a truly dominant year. The best A.L. pitchers on a rate basis was reliever Zach Britton, who managed a fourth-place finish despite the innings limitations inherent to his job.

The vote came with its share of controversy. Verlander received 14 of the 30 available first-place votes, but narrowly missed the award when he was left off of two ballots altogether. The 33-year-old threw 227 2/3 innings of 3.04 ERA ball, with 10.0 K/9 against 2.3 BB/9, whereas Porcello racked up 223 frames of 3.15 ERA pitching on the back of 7.6 K/9 and 1.3 BB/9. The difference, perhaps, was that the ultimate victor managed a sparkling 22-4 win-loss record, whereas Verlander carried a less notable 16-and-9 mark.

Quick Hits: Cubs, Indians, Astros, McCann, Red Sox

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This year’s World Series representatives, the Cubs and Indians, have benefited from the Red Sox’s September collapse in 2011, as Ken Davidoff of the New York Post observes. After the Red Sox blew a nine-game lead in the wild-card race that year, the team parted with two-time World Series-winning manager Terry Francona, who is now one victory away from helping the Indians to their first championship since 1948. The executive who hired Francona in Boston, Theo Epstein, departed after that season to take over the Cubs, with whom he has built what should be a long-term contender. And two of his veteran free agents signings in Chicago, starters Jon Lester and John Lackey, were at the center of a memorable controversy with the Sox in 2011. Along with fellow starter Josh Beckett, Lester and Lackey made a habit of drinking beer, eating fried chicken and playing videogames in the clubhouse during games in which they weren’t pitching. The Red Sox didn’t ax any of those pitchers because of it, though, as each was on the team in 2012. They eventually traded Beckett to the Dodgers in August 2012, while Lester and Lackey were part of the franchise’s latest championship squad in 2013.

More from around the majors:

  • Speaking of Lester, the fact that he’s no longer with the Red Sox is “inexplicable,” opines Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald. The club selected Lester in the second round of the 2002 draft and helped develop him into a star, but it then traded him to the Athletics in the midst of a non-contending season in 2014. The Red Sox got Yoenis Cespedes in return and later flipped him for rotation stalwart Rick Porcello, so it wasn’t a total loss for Boston. The Sox could have ended up with both Lester and Porcello, but they were unwilling to match the Cubs’ winning offer for the then-free agent left-hander in December 2014. Lester will take the ball in Game 5 of the World Series on Sunday and attempt to help Chicago, down 3-1, keep its title hopes alive.
  • The Astros are a fit for catcher Brian McCann if the Yankees shop him during the offseason, opines the New York Post’s Joel Sherman, who cites both Houston’s need for a left-handed bat and backstop Jason Castro’s status as a soon-to-be free agent. With catcher/designated hitter Evan Gattis joining Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, George Springer, Alex Bregman and Yulieski Gurriel, the Astros are slated to have at least six right-handed batters in their lineup next year. McCann would add balance, and serve as an offensive upgrade over Castro, while likely alternating with Gattis behind the plate and at DH. There are potential roadblocks in the way of a McCann deal, however, including the 32-year-old’s full no-trade clause and the $34MM left on his contract through 2018.
  • With Junichi Tazawa, Koji Uehara and Brad Ziegler all set to become free agents, the Red Sox are likely to focus heavily on their bullpen during the offseason, writes Evan Drellich of the Boston Herald. Drellich doesn’t expect the Red Sox to go after the top soon-to-be available relievers – Aroldis Chapman, Kenley Jansen and Mark Melancon – instead listing Sergio Romo, Drew Storen and Boone Logan as a few possibilities they could pursue on the open market. While the popular belief is that the Red Sox will go after Edwin Encarnacion to replace the retired David Ortiz at DH, Carlos Beltran is also a possible target, Drellich suggests. Boston was among the teams interested in Beltran before the Aug. 1 non-waiver trade deadline, but the archrival Yankees ultimately dealt him to the Rangers.

Cafardo On Murphy, Price, Davis, Cueto

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In today’s column, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe spoke with eight major league officials about the players trending up and trending down as free agency approaches.  It probably won’t surprise you to learn that the list of players trending in the right direction starts with Mets second baseman Daniel Murphy.

“Obviously, he’s not going to be as hot as he’s been in the postseason, but he plays positions where his power plays well,” an American League GM told Cafardo. “There are teams like the Dodgers and Yankees who need a second baseman. Others, like the Angels, need a third baseman, where he also plays. He’s going to be sought-after and get a five-year deal at around $75MM. Maybe more.”

Murphy, who can also play at first base, would also have appeal for the attractive to the Orioles, Astros, Padres, and Tigers, Cafardo writes.

Here’s more from today’s column..

  • The feeling is that a seven-year, $210MM deal for David Price would be fair, Cafardo writes, though some are concerned that Price won’t live up to that kind of deal unless he goes somewhere that he’s comfortable. The incumbent Blue Jays could be that place, but the Dodgers, Cardinals, and Cubs are also listed as possibilities.  Price, 30, pitched to a 2.45 ERA with 9.2 K/9 and 1.9 BB/9 in 32 regular season starts for the Tigers and Blue Jays this past season.
  • The group of eight anonymous scouts, managers, and GMs polled by Cafardo would not want to give Orioles bopper Chris Davis more than a five-year deal.  Of course, a team out there very well could. “In the heat of the negotiations and fearing someone else will get him, this will likely get beyond what everybody wants. Scott Boras is the agent, so we may be looking at seven years,” one scout remarked.  Recently, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes profiled the two-time home run king and estimated that he’ll be in line for a six-year, $144MM pact.
  • Johnny Cueto had a rough second half after being traded to the Royals and one National League GM told Cafardo that a “few teams have scratched him off their list.”  Still, that GM estimates that Cueto can net a Jon Lester-type $155MM deal.  Recently, we learned that the Red Sox are mulling a serious push for Cueto.  The Marlins also like Cueto, but financial constraints will probably hold them back in that pursuit.
  • One GM told Cafardo that he wouldn’t give Royals outfielder Alex Gordon anything more than a three-year deal at $36MM-$38MM.  In addition to KC, Cafardo recently listed the Indians, Orioles, Mets, Tigers, and possibly the Red Sox as potential fits.
  • Nationals hurler Jordan Zimmermann didn’t have a great season, but he was listed by Cafardo as a player whose arrow is pointing upwards.  One NL scout praised Zimmermann’s work ethic and toughness.  At the end of the regular season, Zimmermann sounded like a player who knows that he’ll be changing teams.
  • One AL GM envisions Blue Jays pitcher Marco Estrada attracting attention from “six or seven teams” who could offer up a “four- or five-year deal in the $12MM-$15MM [per year] range.”  Last month, MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk checked in on Estrada’s free agent stock.  The right-hander posted a 3.13 ERA with 6.5 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 28 starts and six relief appearances in 2015.
  • Cafardo’s panel indicated that Scott Kazmir could get a three-year deal this offseason, but at a reduced rate because of his struggles with the Astros down the stretch.  The group of eight officials sees Kazmir getting $10-$12MM AAV over a three year period.  The Tigers are among the clubs with interest in the veteran left-hander, though Kazmir has also expressed a desire to return to Houston.
  • At least two teams have their top advisers and scouts looking at Rich Hill’s last four starts with the Red Sox to see if his emergence in 2015 is for real.  One AL scout who has done his homework on the left-hander praised the hurler for his confidence.
  • Cafardo identified the Braves, Dodgers, Rays, Astros, and Mariners as teams that could have interest in Orioles catcher Matt Wieters.  Of course, his market will be impacted by whether or not he receives a qualifying offer.  The Rangers will be among the teams with interest, according to Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com, but only if he does come with a QO attached.  In a recent MLBTR poll, 60% of readers said that the O’s should give Wieters a QO.

NL Notes: Cueto, Lester, Nieuwenhuis

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Reds ace Johnny Cueto will miss his start Sunday with elbow soreness, John Fay of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes. Raisel Iglesias will start in his place. The Reds say Cueto’s soreness is not serious. “He pitched in Kansas City without any trouble,” says Reds manager Bryan Price. “In the days following … his [soreness has] been lingering a little longer. He’s our workhorse. He probably could pitch tomorrow if we had to have him.” An extended absence would, obviously, be a serious blow to the Reds. Cueto came in second in NL Cy Young balloting in 2014 while leading the NL in innings pitched (243 2/3), batters faced (961) and pitches thrown (3,659). Those are very crude measures of a pitcher’s injury risk, but an elbow issue is surely at least worth watching for a pitcher coming off such a high-impact year. Cueto is, of course, a free agent after the season. Here are more notes from the National League.

  • After a poor first month of his $155MM contract with the Cubs, Jon Lester is feeling more comfortable, Patrick Mooney of CSNChicago.com writes. “You definitely don’t want to be one of those guys that at the end of it you look at it as a bust,” Lester says. “You want everything to just fall into place. But sometimes that’s not the case. Sometimes you have take a few beatings to get back to doing the things that you’re used to.” After posting a 6.23 ERA in April, Lester now has a 1.85 ERA in May after pitching seven strong innings against the Diamondbacks yesterday.
  • The Mets are still seeking to trade outfielder Kirk Nieuwenhuis, Adam Rubin of ESPN New York tweets. They designated Nieuwenhuis for assignment earlier this week, and his situation should be resolved by next weekend. Getting anything of value will likely be difficult — Nieuwenhuis had a terrible time in 40 plate appearances this season, hitting .079/.125/.132, and he’s out of options.

NL Notes: Ethier, Taillon, Lester

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The Dodgers are reportedly willing to pay half of Andre Ethier’s salary in a trade, but it’s still hard to figure out where he might be able to find regular playing time, Eno Sarris of Fangraphs writes. Ethier is nearly 33 and profiles as a below-average player, and half of the $56MM remaining on his contract is still more than he would likely get on the open market. The Braves are one team who could conceivably use him. The Phillies might work if Ethier weren’t left-handed, and the Rangers could make sense if they didn’t already have so many corner outfield options. Overall, though, there shouldn’t be much of a market. Here’s more from the National League.

  • Top Pirates prospect Jameson Taillon is scheduled to face live batters next week for the first time since undergoing Tommy John surgery in April, Travis Sawchik of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review writes. Taillon, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2010 draft, only has six career starts at Triple-A, and the Pirates tend to be cautious about promoting their prospects. Health permitting, though, he could make his big-league debut at some point in the second half of the season.
  • The signing of Jon Lester helped change the Cubs’ reputation, Paul Sullivan of the Boston Herald writes. The Cubs will lean heavily on young players this season, but Lester says there’s no reason not to expect those players to win right out of the gate. “Time to grow up sometime,” says Lester. “When I played in Boston we didn’t have time to grow up. You just had to show up and play, and each year you’re expected to win.”

James Shields Rumors: Wednesday

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We learned last night that the market for James Shields was taking shape, with multiple offers on the table and an expectation that the righty would be signed by the end of the week. Today figures to deliver plenty more reporting on the best remaining free agent, and we’ll keep tabs on it here.

  • The Cubs have entered the fray and are “kicking the tires” on Shields, reports David Kaplan of CSNChicago.com. Kaplan, too, hears that Shields is expected to choose a team by the end of the week, and the Cubs are among those he is considering. Kaplan tweets that the Cubs have been waiting to see where the Shields market ended up before getting too involved. He adds that Shields has interest in Chicago, with his relationship with manager Joe Maddon being a factor.

Earlier Updates

  • Shields’s agent, Page Odle, has indicated to some clubs that his client is “getting close to resolution,” according to ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (via Twitter).
  • While it remains unclear exactly where they stand, the Marlins “remain in talks” involving Shields, MLB.com’s Joe Frisaro reports. As he writes, the club is more interested in a three-year deal than in going to four, with its pursuit complicated by payroll projections and the undecided situation of Dan Haren.
  • If Miami is in, several other at-least-hypothetical landing spots appear to be out: The Cardinals prefer to plug Carlos Martinez in the rotation rather than signing Shields, tweets Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch. The Rangers have not modified their intentions to avoid major free agent pitching investments, according to MLB.com’s T.R. Sullivan (via Twitter). And the always-unpredictable Athletics are not involved, per a tweet from Heyman.
  • Two more west coast teams, the Giants and Angels, are also not currently in the running, Heyman reports (Twitter links). San Francisco had been in conversations in the four-year, $80MM range with Shields earlier in the offseason, per an Olney tweet, but ended up pursuing (and signing) Jake Peavy and Ryan Vogelsong when they were rebuffed.

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