Royals Place Zack Greinke On Injured List
The Royals have placed right-hander Zack Greinke on the 15-day injured list, per Anne Rogers of MLB.com, with right posterior elbow soreness. The move is retroactive to yesterday. Left-hander Taylor Hearn was recalled in a corresponding move.
Greinke, 39, has an extensive track record of major league success but is struggling through one of the worst seasons of his career. He’s allowing 5.53 earned runs per nine innings, striking out just 15.8% of batters faced. He hasn’t had huge strikeout totals for a few years now, relying more on limiting hard contact, but that’s proved to be more challenging this year. His 8.6% barrel rate is the worst of his career, as is the 89.5 mph average exit velocity he’s allowed. 17.2% of fly balls he’s allowed are leaving the yard, one of the worst such rates of his career.
It’s unclear how long Greinke is expected to be out, but the club will have to operate without him for at least the next two weeks. That will leave them with a rotation of Brady Singer, Cole Ragans, Jordan Lyles and Alec Marsh. They are currently in a stretch of 12 straight games, with their next off-day not until Sunday. That means they will need a fifth starter, or a bullpen game, at some point between now and then. Max Castillo and Jonathan Bowlan are each on the 40-man roster though they both have ERAs above 5.00 in Triple-A this year.
Greinke is currently sitting on 2,995 career strikeouts. Just five more will allow him to hit the 3,000 milestone, something that only 19 other pitchers have ever done in history. Royals fans, and baseball fans in general, will hope that he returns to health in time to hit that incredible marker.
Hearn will be making his Royals debut whenever he gets into a game, as he was just acquired from Atlanta prior to the deadline. He has a 3.37 ERA in the minors this year, tossing 42 2/3 innings between the two organizations. He’s struck out 30.1% of opponents in that time but walked 12.8%.
Royals Claim Joe Barlow
The Royals announced Friday they’ve claimed right-hander Joe Barlow off waivers from the Rangers. He’s been optioned to Triple-A Omaha. The Royals’ 40-man roster is now at 39 players.
Barlow, 27, changes organizations for the first time in his career. Texas selected him in the 11th round of the 2016 draft and called him to the majors five years later. Barlow got strong results out of the Rangers’ bullpen over his first couple seasons, following up a 1.55 ERA rookie showing with a 3.86 mark over 35 appearances last year.
Between his first two seasons, the Utah native worked to a 2.86 ERA across 64 innings. His underlying marks didn’t align with that excellent run prevention. His 21.4% strikeout percentage and 9.7% walk rate were each a touch worse than average. An unsustainably low .193 opponents’ average on balls in play was a big reason for his strong results. Yet Barlow was effective enough to quickly pitch his way up the bullpen hierarchy on subpar Texas clubs. He’d taken over as Chris Woodward’s closer by the end of his rookie season and ultimately locked down 24 saves in 29 attempts over his first couple years.
As Texas pushed firmly into win-now mode last winter, they installed free agent signee Will Smith into a late-inning role. Midseason trades of Aroldis Chapman and Chris Stratton followed. Barlow’s middling peripherals pushed him further down the depth chart. He has spent more time on optional assignment to Triple-A Round Rock than with the big league club this summer. Barlow has worked 9 2/3 innings of five-run ball over 13 MLB appearances, striking out six with two walks. He carries a 4.21 ERA with a 22.9% strikeout rate and 9.2% walk percentage in 25 2/3 Triple-A frames on the year.
Texas designated Barlow for assignment last weekend upon officially acquiring Stratton and Jordan Montgomery from St. Louis. He’s a sensible pickup for a K.C. club that has subtracted Chapman, Scott Barlow and José Cuas in trades over the past five weeks. Joe Barlow is in his first of three minor league option seasons. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until the end of next year at the earliest. With a couple open spots on the 40-man roster, the Royals used their high waiver priority to nab a depth arm with some experience in a high-leverage role and generally solid major league track record.
Royals Explored Trades Involving Salvador Perez
Longtime Royals catcher Salvador Perez looks to have been an under-the-radar trade candidate heading into the deadline, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweeted that the Marlins and White Sox each had interest, and the Padres also “checked on” the backstop, as per the Post’s Jon Heyman. The Marlins might have been relatively closest to making something happen, as The Athletic’s Jayson Stark reports that Perez was “open to” playing in Florida (where he lives), and Miami and K.C. revisited talks this afternoon but a deal didn’t emerge.
On paper, it isn’t surprising that a non-contender like the Royals looking into moving a high-salaried veteran player. However, the fact that Perez was discussed to even some extent counts as a bit of a surprise, given his longstanding status as the face of the Royals franchise. In mid-June, Kansas City general manager J.J. Picollo flatly denied the possibility of such a move, saying the Royals didn’t “have any intention of trading Salvy and it’s not something we are looking to do,” and that “he has told us over and over again he wants to be a Royal his whole career.”
Perez is a 10-and-5 player, meaning that he achieved full no-trade protection by achieving 10 years of MLB service time and five years with the same team. He could’ve therefore vetoed any proposal, but it creates an interesting question of what scenario arose first — Perez telling the Royals he was open to being dealt in the right scenario, or the Royals approaching Perez with any offers received.
Of course, the extent of the talks with any of these three clubs isn’t known, as even the negotiations with the Marlins might’ve been little more than due diligence. Miami and San Diego both known to be looking for catching upgrades, and given the thin market for quality backstops, it makes sense that each team would at least place a call to Kansas City, even if the chances of a Perez trade might have been remote.
The White Sox are a more surprising suitor, and it seems unlikely that Perez might have agreed to join another AL Central team. According to Sherman, Sox manager Pedro Grifol might’ve been a factor in trying to bring his old friend to town, as Grifol spent a decade on the K.C. coaching staff before being hired by Chicago. The White Sox saw Perez as a replacement for Yasmani Grandal, who is a free agent after the season and was surely a trade candidate in his own right as the Sox looked to rebuild, though Grandal was one of the few pending White Sox free agents who wasn’t moved at the deadline.
If Perez and the Royals are perhaps considering parting ways, it adds an interesting wrinkle to the offseason trade market. Given how badly the Royals have stumbled this season, Perez might feel that the team won’t be able to contend again before his contract is up, so he might be more open to joining a contender for the latter stages of his career. From the Royals’ perspective, losing the 33-year-old Perez would represent the end of an era in K.C. baseball, but it might be a decision the team is ready to make if it has to reboot what looks like a stalled rebuild plan.
Perez is still owed at least $44MM through the 2025 season ($42MM in salary and a $2MM buyout of a $13.5MM club option for 2026), so he would be a pricey addition for any team. There is also the fact that Perez is having a down year, hitting .246/.288/.427 with 17 homers (and 89 wRC+) over 396 plate appearances and posting subpar defensive numbers according to both Statcast and Fangraphs’ metrics. It could be that Perez might be recharged with a change of scenery, or he might simply be starting to wear down after 12 MLB seasons.
Dodgers Acquire Ryan Yarbrough
The Dodgers have acquired left-hander Ryan Yarbrough from the Royals, according to MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand and Juan C. Toribio (Twitter link). Kansas City is receiving minor league infielders Devin Mann and Derlin Figueroa, Feinsand reports in a follow-up tweet.
While the Dodgers made bids for such high-profile pitchers as Justin Verlander and Eduardo Rodriguez prior to the deadline, they’ll still come away with some rotation help in Yarbrough, who has a 3.08 ERA over 38 innings and seven games as a starter for Kansas City this season. Of course, that also comes with a 7.62 ERA over 13 innings as a reliever, but Yarbrough has looked very sharp since he was moved into the K.C. rotation in April.
On-field performance has been a secondary story to Yarbrough’s 2023 season, as the southpaw suffered multiple facial fractures after being struck by a Ryan Noda line drive back on May 7. The injuries sent Yarbrough to the 60-day IL, but he thankfully returned in good health and has been in great form on the mound, with a 2.19 ERA over 24 2/3 innings since being activated off the injured list.
Yarbrough’s secondary metrics are the definition of a mixed bag. On the one hand, his 86.9% fastball velocity, fastball spin rate, and 13.7% strikeout rate are near the very bottom of the league. His 3.8% walk rate, however, is among the league’s elite, and he has done an excellent job of inducing soft contact. His 4.24 ERA is much lower than his 4.97 SIERA, which perhaps better reflects this curious set of Statcast numbers and the move from relief pitching to starting pitching.
The Dodgers have long had a knack for both helping pitchers find a new level of performance or helping them revive their careers altogether, so there’s plenty of promise for Yarbrough in this change of scenery. The left-hander is likely to get some more starts in an L.A. rotation that includes another new face in Lance Lynn, and the Dodgers now technically have seven healthy starting options in Lynn, Yarbrough, Tony Gonsolin, Julio Urias, and rookies Bobby Miller, Emmet Sheehan, and Michael Grove.
At least two of the youngsters will be moved to Triple-A or to the bullpen in the aftermath of the deadline, and once Clayton Kershaw returned from the 15-day injured list. Yarbrough could also work as a reliever himself, or in a swingman capacity as the situation warrants. He is quite familiar with such a role, both with the Royals this season and from his previous time as a starter, reliever, opener, and bulk pitcher with the Rays from 2018-22.
It’s a rental move for Los Angeles, as Yarbrough is a free agent after the season. He is still owed roughly $1.1MM as the remainder of his $3MM salary for the 2023 season, putting a bit of extra money on the ledger of a Dodgers team already well over the first luxury tax tier ($233MM). With much still to be settled in the wake of the deadline, Roster Resource projects the Dodgers as just narrowly under the $253MM second tier, and staying under that threshold would at least mean a slightly lesser financial penalty for the Dodgers as they pay into the tax for the third consecutive season.
With a one-year deal, Yarbrough was seen as a potential deadline trade chip from basically the moment he signed with the Royals, and Kansas City’s disastrous season only made a deal even more likely. The latest of K.C’s many swaps brings in two more prospects, including a player in Mann ranked by both Baseball America (24th) and MLB Pipeline (29th) within the top 30 of the Los Angeles farm system.
Mann was a fifth-round pick for the Dodgers in 2018, and might be ready for a big league look after hitting .307/.402/.541 with 14 homers over 386 plate appearances at the Triple-A level this season. While the hitter-friendly nature of the Pacific Coast League brings some pause to Mann’s numbers, the 26-year-old has hit pretty well over the course of his minor league career. “Mann is a well-rounded player who does a little bit of everything,” according to Baseball America’s scouting report, and his “bat and defensive versatility give him a chance to carve out a career as a lefty-mashing reserve.” Mann has played all four infield positions and left field this season, and he has logged some time in the other two outfield positions in past years.
The 19-year-old Figueroa was an international signing for L.A. in 2021, and he has hit .237/.372/.376 over 113 PA at the rookie ball level this season. While still very early in his pro career, Figueroa has at least shown a knack for getting on base, even if his overall hitting ability needs some polish. Like Mann, Figueroa is a multi-positional player — he has seen time at first base and both outfield corners this season, and played all the other infield positions in his first two seasons.
Padres Acquire Scott Barlow
The Padres acquired reliever Scott Barlow from the Royals for prospects Jesus Rios and Henry Williams, according to a team announcement. The Friars also designated infielder Brandon Dixon for assignment to clear a spot for Barlow.
Barlow, 30, owns a 5.35 ERA, 26.7 K%, 12.5 BB%, and 45.2% groundball rate this year in 38 2/3 innings. He’s saved 13 games for the Royals along the way.
The Dodgers drafted Barlow in the sixth round out of high school back in 2011. He signed a split free agent contract with the Royals way back in December 2017. Barlow started to find his footing in the Royals’ bullpen in the shortened 2020 season, working his way into a closer role the following year.
Barlow has had a couple of trips through arbitration, and decent save totals have led to a $5.3MM salary this year. Barlow competed with Aroldis Chapman for the Royals’ late-inning work earlier this summer, though Chapman was traded to the Rangers in late June.
Since June 10th, Barlow has an 8.04 ERA, 17.0 K%, and 13.4 BB% in 15 2/3 innings, causing him to fall out of favor with manager Matt Quatraro. Carlos Hernandez and others have leapfrogged Barlow on the depth chart, and now he’ll get a chance for a fresh start in San Diego. Barlow can be controlled for 2024 through the arbitration process, but he’ll have to bounce back for the Padres to get tendered a contract.
Josh Hader continues to pitch well atop the Padres’ bullpen, and Robert Suarez made his season debut on July 21st after recovering from an elbow injury. Nick Martinez and Steven Wilson have been key pieces as well.
Barlow is an aggressive pickup for a Padres team that enters play tonight five games out of the wild card. The club entered the day with an estimated luxury tax payroll above $280MM, meaning they are in the 95% tax bracket. FanGraphs still gives the Padres playoff odds of about 35%, and they also added Garrett Cooper, Rich Hill, and Ji Man Choi today. Padres GM A.J. Preller chose to supplement his club with veterans, rather than cash in impending free agents such as Blake Snell and Hader.
As for the Royals’ return, Williams is a 21-year-old righty starting pitcher who was drafted in the third round out of Duke last year and signed for an above-slot $800K while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. The 6’5″ starter has struggled thus far in 12 Low-A ball starts, but before the season he was seen as a 45 or 50 grade prospect with a three-pitch mix and mid-rotation upside.
Rios, 21, has worked as a reliever this year in the rookie-level Dominican Summer League. He’s posted a 6.38 ERA in 18 1/3 innings.
Dixon, 31, saw most of his big league time with the Reds and Tigers in 2018-19. He spent 2021 with the Rakuten Golden Eagles and returned stateside on a minor league deal with the Padres. He’s been up and down from the Major League club this year, picking up 86 plate appearances in 33 games.
Mark Feinsand was first to report the Padres’ acquisition of Barlow.
Royals Fielding Offers On Several Veterans
The Royals have been talking to other clubs about potential trades involving veteran pitchers Scott Barlow, Taylor Clarke and Ryan Yarbrough, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. Outfielder Edward Olivares has also been discussed in potential deals.
Of the bunch, Barlow is the most obvious and straightforward trade candidate. The 30-year-old righty thrived as the primary closer in Kansas City from 2021-22, pitching 148 2/3 innings of 2.30 ERA ball with 40 saves, a hefty 28.2% strikeout rate and a solid 8.4% walk rate. The 2023 season has been far more troublesome. Barlow’s average fastball sat at 95.3 mph in ’21 but has dipped to 92.9 mph this season. His walk rate has also spiked, and the right-hander’s 5.35 ERA is a career-worst mark.
That said, Barlow still figures to hold appeal to other clubs. Dip in velocity notwithstanding, he still has well above-average strikeout (26.2%), swinging-strike (12.6%) and opponents chase (37.6%) rates. His $5.3MM salary is generally affordable, and Barlow is controllable through 2024 via arbitration. This year’s struggles are at least in part due to a .340 average on balls in play and 61.6% strand rate, both worse-than-average marks which should eventually trend toward his career marks of .306 and 76.1%. Barlow had a solid 3.97 ERA as recently as July 16, but he’s been tagged for eight runs through 4 2/3 innings over his past five outings.
Clarke, also 30, has a shorter track record and more pronounced struggles in 2023. The right-hander has been tagged for a 6.00 ERA in 45 innings this year, thanks to a particularly dreadful slump dating back to mid-June. Clarke had a 2.70 ERA through his first 30 innings but has been tattooed for 22 runs in his past 15 innings. A season-long .374 BABIP isn’t helping his cause, but that alone doesn’t explain the extent of the right-hander’s struggles. From 2020-22, he pitched to a respectable, if unspectacular 4.44 ERA with solid strikeout and walk rates.
The 31-year-old Yarbrough inked a one-year deal with Kansas City after spending his entire big league career with the Rays organization. He’s earning $3MM this season and, although he missed time after a frightening incident where he was struck by a comebacker, the lefty has been decent when on the field. In 51 innings — seven starts, seven relief outings — he’s posted a 4.24 ERA. Yarbrough has one of the lowest strikeout rates in MLB (13.7%) but also one of the lowest walk rates (4.2%) among pitchers with at least 50 innings.
While Yarbrough started the season in Kansas City’s bullpen, he moved into the rotation not long before his injury and has continued starting since returning in early July. He’s made four starts since coming off the IL, pitching to a 2.19 ERA with a 15-to-2 K/BB ratio in 24 2/3 innings. He’s a pure rental and could help round out the back of someone’s rotation in the season’s final two months.
Olivares, 27, came to the Royals from the Padres organization in the 2020 trade that sent Trevor Rosenthal to San Diego. He looked solid at the plate in 2022 when he hit .286/.333/.410 with four homers, eight doubles and a pair of steals in 174 trips to the plate. His 2023 output has taken a step back. He’s logged a career-high 274 plate appearances but turned in a tepid .246/.299/.409 batting line.
The right-handed-hitting Olivares has even platoon splits this year but has generally been better against righties than lefties, when looking at his career as a whole. He’s played all three outfield spots in his career but has primarily worked in the corners; he doesn’t have above-average grades at any of the three positions, though. Olivares would be controllable for three more years beyond the current season, but he hasn’t developed as the Royals had hoped and is more of a change-of-scenery candidate than someone who’d fetch them meaningful prospect depth.
Royals Acquire Tucker Davidson
The Royals acquired left-hander Tucker Davidson from the Angels in exchange for cash, the teams announced. Davidson, whom the Angels designated for assignment over the weekend, will be added directly to Kansas City’s big league roster. He’s out of minor league options.
Davidson, 27, was long one of the more promising farmhands in the Braves’ farm system and made his way to the Rangers by way of last summer’s Raisel Iglesias trade. That swap was more about the Angels shedding Iglesias’ salary than it was about adding either Davidson or veteran Jesse Chavez — also in the trade — but the organization had surely hoped to get Davidson back on track after a rough year in Triple-A.
Things haven’t played out that way, however. Davidson made eight starts with the Angels following the trade last year but struggled to a 6.87 ERA in 36 2/3 innings. A move to the bullpen this season didn’t bring about meaningful improvement; in 31 2/3 innings across 18 relief appearances, the lefty has a 6.54 ERA with a 20.9% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate. A .412 average on balls in play points to some bad luck, but Davidson has also seen his average fastball dip from 93.1 mph to 91.6 mph — despite the fact that he’s now been working in short relief stints.
Davidson provides the Royals with some nearly free depth on the pitching side of things at a time when the rest of their once-touted young arms have seen their development stall. None of Brady Singer, Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, Kris Bubic, Asa Lacy or the other college arms on which Kansas City’s rebuild has been riding have established themselves as consistent big league starters. The Royals recently bought low on lefty Taylor Hearn in a deal with the Braves and will add Davidson to their pile of once highly regarded arms. It’s not clear whether they’ll use him in relief or in the rotation, but the Royals’ pitching staff could use help in both areas.
Cubs, Royals Swap Jose Cuas For Nelson Velazquez
The Cubs and Royals have exchanged reliever José Cuas for outfielder Nelson Velázquez, the teams announced. It’s a one-for-one swap.
Cuas, 29, bounced around the minors before cracking Kansas City’s roster last summer. He has made 92 appearances in middle relief over the past two seasons. The right-hander owns a 4.08 ERA across 79 1/3 career innings. He has seen a big jump in whiffs year-over-year, pushing his strikeout rate from a modest 18.9% as a rookie to 27.1% this season. He’s picking up swinging strikes on an above-average 13.3% of his offerings.
The University of Maryland product works with a sinker-slider mix from a lower arm slot. He doesn’t throw especially hard but has missed plenty of bats with his low-80s slider. He’ll step into the middle innings mix and can bounce between Chicago and Triple-A Iowa for a while. He still has two minor league options year remaining and won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least after the 2024 campaign.
In exchange, the Royals get a look at Velázquez. A right-handed hitting outfielder, he picked up some prospect attention on the strength of his power potential early in his career. The former fifth-round draftee struggled to a .205/.286/.373 line while striking out almost 32% of the time in 77 games as a rookie last season. He has mashed in a small big league sample this year but spent the bulk of the season with Iowa.
Over 330 trips to the dish there, the 24-year-old Velázquez owns a .253/.333/.469 batting line. He’s connected on 16 home runs but struck out in just under 30% of his plate appearances. He’s playing mostly center field but has generally been viewed as a better fit for a corner by prospect evaluators.
In recent years, the Royals have rolled the dice on a few upper level outfielders with above-average tools but swing-and-miss concerns. Kansas City has given looks to the likes of Edward Olivares and Drew Waters. Velázquez has a generally similar profile and will compete for reps in an uncertain outfield at Kauffman Stadium. He has one minor league option beyond this season and is at least two years away from arbitration.
Braves, Royals Swap Nicky Lopez, Taylor Hearn
The Braves have acquired infielder Nicky Lopez from the Royals in a one-for-one swap that will send left-hander Taylor Hearn to Kansas City. The Braves have officially announced the deal, and MLB.com’s Anne Rogers was the first to report that Lopez was on his way to Atlanta.
Like most Royals players this season, Lopez has had an underwhelming year with the bat, hitting .210/.322/.280 over 187 plate appearances. Lopez’s hitting has never been as much of a calling card as his defense, and he has delivered his usual above-average glovework backing up the infield at second base, third base, and shortstop.
He’ll bring that same versatile depth to the Braves, though Lopez’s playing time figures to be at a premium since Atlanta generally keeps its starters (including the infield core of Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia, and Austin Riley) in the lineup at all times, even to the point of usually foregoing late-game defensive substitutions. Still, with a big lead in the NL West, the Braves might look to give their regulars some extra rest going into the postseason, and Lopez at least provides some experienced depth if case an injury situation does arise.
Now in his fifth MLB season, Lopez has largely been a glove-first player who has seemed like a bit of a placeholder as Kansas City waited for its next wave of prospects (such as Bobby Witt Jr.) to reach the Show. However, Lopez worked his way into a larger share of playing time, particularly after his quietly outstanding 2021 campaign. Lopez had the 11th-best fWAR (6.0) of any player in baseball that season, pairing spectacular defense and baserunning with an above-average .300/.365/.378 slash line over 565 plate appearances.
In hindsight, the Royals perhaps might have looked at selling high on Lopez in the wake of that big season, though it’s understandable why K.C. would’ve also wanted to hang onto a possible hidden gem of a breakout player. Moving the 28-year-old now officially turns the page on Lopez’s era in Kansas City, even though he was still under team control through the 2025 campaign. It’s not a bad pickup for the Braves to land a depth option who can help now and potentially in future years, though Lopez will be due a raise on his $3.7MM salary this winter, and might be a non-tender candidate if Atlanta wants to trim its list of arbitration-eligibles.
Hearn finds himself on the move for the second time in less than a week, as the Braves just picked up the southpaw on July 24 in another trade that sent cash considerations to the Rangers. Given that Texas had designated Hearn for assignment prior to working out the deal with Atlanta, it is a little curious that the Royals are surrendering Lopez to acquire him now rather than acquiring him at a lower cost shortly after his first DFA. It’s possible this could be a precursor to another move. Hearn’s ability to work as a reliever or a starter could allow him to fill several holes in Kansas City’s pitching staff should the Royals be on the verge of dealing from their rotation or bullpen before Tuesday’s trade deadline. Austin Cox is the only other left-hander in the Royals’ bullpen, so Hearn also fits a more immediate need.
Hearn’s tenure in Atlanta ends after a single ignominious appearance, as he allowed four runs in one-third of an inning in Saturday’s 11-5 win over the Brewers. That gives him a 14.73 ERA in 7 1/3 total innings in 2023 with the Braves and Rangers, though Hearn’s 3.66 ERA in 39 1/3 innings for the Rangers’ Triple-A affiliate is far more palatable.
Prior to Saturday, all of Hearn’s previous MLB experience had come with Texas, as he posted a 4.95 ERA over 222 innings from 2019-22 while starting 25 of his 88 games. The lefty’s numbers as a reliever have been much better than his work out of the rotation, so a long relief role might be Hearn’s best option for the future. Hearn doesn’t miss many bats (21.6% career strikeout rate), nor has he been great at limiting free passes, with a 10.5% walk rate over his time in the big leagues.
Dodgers Rumors: Verlander, E-Rod, Singer, Keller, Cardinals, Scherzer, Canha, Pham
The Dodgers have already both added and subtracted from their pitching mix prior to the deadline, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox while also shipping out Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario. Between these moves and the re-acqusition of old friend Enrique Hernandez from the Red Sox, Los Angeles has already checked several boxes on their wishlist with over three days to go until the trade deadline, but more transactions seem likely given the Dodgers’ aggression.
Pitching remains the focus, as while Lynn will theoretically fill one hole, Lynn’s inconsistency and the Dodgers’ relative lack of rotation has put a lot of other hurlers on the team’s radar. According to Jack Harris and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers’ list of targets include Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery. Beyond Verlander, the Dodgers are also looking at a couple of other Mets players to address their outfield needs, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are of interest.
One Met who apparently isn’t under heavy consideration is Max Scherzer, as Harris/Castillo write that “the likelihood…isn’t as strong” of Scherzer heading to Chavez Ravine at another trade deadline. L.A. memorably landed Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals two years ago, but Scherzer was a rental at the time, just two-plus months away from free agency. Scherzer implied yesterday that he would be exercising his $43.333MM player option for 2024, and with the Mets likely to ask for a strong trade return, the uncertainty over that player option makes Scherzer a pricey add both financially (he is also still owed $16MM for the rest of 2023) and from a prospect cost.
Given how aggressive the Dodgers have been, a Scherzer reunion might not be entirely ruled out until either the team makes another pitching move, or until Scherzer is potentially shipped elsewhere. With Verlander, Pham and Canha also apparently under discussion, the Dodgers’ talks with the Mets could go in several directions between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline.
Similarly, there are plenty of layers to the negotiations between the Dodgers and Cardinals, as Nolan Arenado is yet another star name Los Angeles has explored. In a move akin to that Scherzer/Turner blockbuster of 2021, the Dodgers could aim to land both a major position player and a rental pitcher (either Montgomery or Flaherty) in the same deal. Harris/Castillo note that L.A. might also pursue either Montgomery or Flaherty on their own, should the more complicated machinations of an Arenado deal fall through.
Rodriguez has drawn attention from several other teams as the deadline approaches, and the Tigers left-hander’s status is also impacted by a contractual option. Rodriguez has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season, leaving three years and $49MM on the table in search of a richer and longer-term deal. An opt-out seems like a distinct possibility the way E-Rod has been pitching, yet an injury or a drop in form (with the Tigers or a new team) could certainly still occur post-deadline, leading to a change in his thinking. If this did happen after a trade, a new club could find itself on the books for $49MM of a suddenly distressed asset, which surely factors into the thinking of the Dodgers and any other team considering the southpaw.
Beyond these veteran rental players, the Dodgers are also slightly expanding their perimeters to look at more controllable pitchers. The Pirates have arbitration control on Keller through the 2025 season, while the Royals have Singer arb-controlled through 2026. Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal. While Los Angeles is one of the teams with the prospect depth to perhaps get the Pirates’ attention, it doesn’t seem likely that the Bucs will move Keller anywhere at the deadline or even in the near future, as Pittsburgh may have an eye on fully turning the corner back into contending in 2024.
“No traction toward a deal has materialized” between the Dodgers and Royals, so Singer is probably also not on the move. The former first-rounder has a breakout season in 2022 but has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over 113 2/3 innings this year, albeit with a somewhat more favorable 4.41 SIERA. It is possible that L.A. was looking to buy low on the righty (who turns 27 next week), just in case Kansas City was considering a wider-range rebuild in the wake of its disastrous 2023 season. The Royals are in a tough spot given the lack of production from almost all of their projected cornerstone young players, yet while it isn’t clear what the next step will be for the franchise, it does seem too soon for K.C. to give up on Singer, one of the few members of that group who has had some level of success in the majors.
Returning to Verlander, he would also bring a bit more control than a rental player, as he owed $43.333MM in 2024 and he can earn a $35MM player option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024. It’s a steep price tag for a pitcher who turns 41 in February, as even though Verlander has pitched closer to his vintage form in the last few weeks, he missed time earlier this year due to a teres major strain and was then shaky in his first few starts of 2023.
Perhaps more relevant to August 1, Verlander has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and said earlier this week that “I’m focused on being a Met. I want to win here…Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.” Since the Mets have already started to trade veterans and look ahead to 2024, it is possible Verlander might change his mind should a contender make an offer, and there has been a connection between Verlander and Los Angeles in the past. The Dodgers pushed to sign Verlander in free agency last winter, with Harris/Castillo writing that L.A. offered the future Hall-of-Famer two years and $80MM.