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Balelo: “Inevitable” That Ohtani Will Undergo Some Kind Of Elbow Procedure

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Two weeks ago, the Angels announced that Shohei Ohtani was done pitching for the season after imaging revealed a tear in the UCL of his throwing elbow. Ohtani has yet to address that injury with that media, but his agent, CAA’s Nez Balelo, met with reporters this evening.

Balelo called it “inevitable” that Ohtani will need to undergo some type of procedure (relayed by Dylan Hernández of the Los Angeles Times). Whether that’ll be a full Tommy John surgery or something less invasive (e.g. an internal brace repair) is still to be determined.

According to Balelo, the tear is in a different area than the injury that necessitated Ohtani’s October 2018 Tommy John surgery. He called it a “best case scenario” given the situation (via Bill Shaikin of the L.A. Times). Balelo made clear that Ohtani plans to be in the lineup as a designated hitter next season. He stressed that “there’s not a question in (Ohtani’s) mind” he’ll eventually be able to return to pitching as well, though that timetable remains uncertain pending their decision on the specific treatment necessary (relayed by Alden González of ESPN).

Shortly after the UCL tear was discovered, Halos’ general manager Perry Minasian told reporters that Ohtani and CAA declined the team’s offer to undergo imaging after the two-way star reported finger cramping in early August. While that could be interpreted as a shot at Ohtani or his representation, Balelo said they had no issue with the Angels going public with that information (via Sam Blum of the Athletic). He confirmed that Ohtani declined imaging at the time.

Ohtani has continued hitting since the injury, raking at a .300/.500/.500 clip in 43 plate appearances. It seems he’ll continue as the DH, at least until the plan to address his elbow is finalized. The AL MVP favorite is up to an astounding .304/.412/.654 batting line and is tied with Matt Olson for the major league lead with 44 home runs.

Even with uncertainty about his short-term outlook on the mound, Ohtani stands as the clear top player in the upcoming free agent class. If he prioritizes the overall guarantee, the 29-year-old seems likely to eclipse the $360MM record which Aaron Judge established last winter. Teams will obviously closely monitor his arm health to assess the likelihood he’ll be able to recapture his top-of-the-rotation form whenever he’s healthy enough to again begin throwing.

Angels Place Max Stassi On Restricted List

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2:22PM: It isn’t yet known if the Angels have ducked under the tax line, as Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register notes that putting Stassi on the restricted list will save the team roughly $300K off the tax bill (due to how the luxury tax figure is calculated by average annual value, not by pure dollars).  It might not be revealed until after the season whether or not the Angels have gotten under the tax threshold.

1:31PM: The Angels announced that catcher Max Stassi has been placed on the team’s restricted list (retroactive to September 2).  Stassi hasn’t played at all this season due to both a hip strain that required a 60-day IL placement, and a personal situation involving his family.

That latter reason has led to the restricted list placement, since as per the club’s announcement, Stassi “informed the Angels that while he is in a position to resume activities to return to MLB, he has voluntarily chosen not to do so for the remainder of the 2023 season as a result of a serious family medical issue.  Out of respect for Max and his family, the Angels will not have any further comment.  The Angels wish Max and his family all the best.”

A veteran of 10 Major League seasons with the Astros and Angels, Stassi was dealt to Los Angeles at the 2019 trade deadline and hit quite well in part-time catching action for the Angels in 2020-21.  That prompted the Halos to sign him to a three-year, $14.5MM contract extension that runs through the 2024 season with a club option (worth $7.5MM with a $500K buyout) for 2025.  Unfortunately, Stassi then struggled through the 2022 campaign, and entered this past Spring Training competing for playing time with Logan O’Hoppe and Matt Thaiss.

Stassi’s hip injury removed him from the catching picture, and it appears as though he has been healthy for some time, but has instead been spending time with his family.  We at MLBTR express our support for Stassi and his family during this difficult period.

When on a Major League restricted list, players can’t amass any big league service time or salary.  As a result, the Angels won’t have to pay the $1.16MM still owed to Stassi over the course of the 2023 campaign, which has some bigger-picture implications for the team.  The Athletic’s Sam Blum (X link) writes that with Stassi’s remaining salary off the books, the Angels will be able to duck under the $233MM luxury tax threshold.

This desire to avoid a tax payment was part of the reason for the Angels’ recent flurry of waiver wire placements, as Lucas Giolito, Hunter Renfroe, Dominic Leone, Matt Moore, and Reynaldo Lopez were all claimed away from the team prior to September 1.  However, because Randal Grichuk wasn’t claimed, the Halos remained slightly above the $233MM tax line, but today’s move with Stassi has now apparently cleared the last financial hurdle.

The Angels hadn’t been tax payors since 2004, but were prepared to surpass the threshold this season in a push to contend in what might be Shohei Ohtani’s final season in Anaheim.  The Halos were aggressive in adding to their roster last winter and during the season, including a busy trade deadline push that saw them land Giolito, Lopez, Leone, Grichuk, C.J. Cron in three separate trades.  However, Los Angeles’ 8-19 record in August and Ohtani’s UCL injury led the club to effectively throw in the towel, and put six players on the waiver wire in the hopes of recouping some money to at least avoid any tax penalty.

In staying under the $233MM threshold, the Angels will avoid the (fairly minimal) tax payment itself, but will gain bigger rewards in terms of free agent compensation rules.  The Halos will be able to sign qualifying offer-rejecting free agents without having to pay a bigger penalty in terms of draft picks, while L.A. will receive a compensatory pick prior to the third round of the draft for any free agents (i.e Ohtani) who might reject a QO and sign elsewhere.  Had the Angels been tax payors, that compensatory pick would’ve fallen beyond the fourth round.

West Notes: Scherzer, Trout, Nola, Martinez

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Rangers ace Max Scherzer exited his start against the Twins after six innings yesterday due to what he described to reporters (including Jeff Wilson of Rangers Today) as a “little forearm tightness” and wasn’t sure he’d be able to pitch the seventh. That being said, Scherzer downplayed the severity of the issue, suggesting that his priority is to ensure that the issue doesn’t “turn into a forearm strain or Tommy John.”

Even though Scherzer downplays the issue, it’s surely worrisome for Rangers fans that he’s facing any issue at all. The veteran right-hander has posted a phenomenal 2.21 ERA (198 ERA+) and 2.48 FIP in his first six starts with the club since being acquired from the Mets ahead of the trade deadline back in July. With Jacob deGrom out for the year and Nathan Eovaldi on the injured list already, Scherzer will be key for a Rangers club looking to stay in a three-way race for the AL West crown that they were dominating earlier in the season, to say nothing of his importance as a key cog in their projected postseason rotation alongside fellow deadline acquisition Jordan Montgomery. In the event Scherzer misses a start or two while erring on the side of caution regarding his forearm, Texas could turn to right-hander Owen White or lefties Cody Bradford and Martin Perez to fill in for the future Hall of Famer when his turn in the rotation next comes up on Wednesday.

More from MLB’s West divisions…

  • Superstar Mike Trout spoke with reporters (including Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register) regarding the future of the Angels organization this afternoon. Anaheim, of course, waived a number of pending free agents including prized deadline addition Lucas Giolito earlier this week, effectively conceding the 2023 campaign in a failed bid to duck under the luxury tax threshold before the season ends. “There are going to be some conversations in the winter, for sure.” Trout said, “Just to see the direction of everything and what the plan is.” Trout refused to comment on the possibility of a trade when asked if he could imagine a scenario where he would ask to be moved, though with two-way superstar Shohei Ohtani likely departing for free agency this offseason and a protracted rebuild potentially on the horizon for the Angels, it would certainly be understandable if the 32-year-old Trout wished to continue his career elsewhere in hopes of reaching a World Series.
  • Padres catcher Austin Nola has had a brutal year at the plate in 2023, slashing just .146/.260/.192 in 154 trips to the plate with San Diego. An explanation for those struggles has seemingly been uncovered, as Jeff Sanders of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays that Nola has been diagnosed with oculomotor dysfunction, an issue that impacts the brain’s ability to coordinate eye movement. Nola referenced Yankees first baseman Anthony Rizzo and his issues with post-concussion syndrome as a catalyst for his decision to discuss symptoms, which included fogginess and headaches, with the Padres. The Padres have been using a catching tandem of Gary Sanchez and Luis Campusano in recent weeks as Nola tried to work things out at the Triple-A level. Nola hopes to return to the field in the minors before the Triple-A season ends on September 24.
  • Dodgers slugger J.D. Martinez is trending toward a return to the big league club next weekend, per the Orange County Register’s Bill Plunkett. Plunkett relays that Martinez will begin a brief rehab assignment at Triple-A later this week and in the meantime will take swings at Camelback Ranch in Arizona. Martinez, 35, has been on the injured list for the past two weeks due to groin tightness and was slashing .256/.309/.547 with 25 home runs and a 126 wRC+ in 390 trips to the plate before going on the shelf.

Angels Remain Narrowly Above Luxury Tax Threshold

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The Angels’ competitive balance tax number still sits narrowly above the $233MM base threshold, reports Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register. Los Angeles attempted to shed enough salary via waivers this week to limbo below that number but was unsuccessful.

On Tuesday, the Angels placed six players on waivers. Five of them — Lucas Giolito, Hunter Renfroe, Dominic Leone, Reynaldo López and Matt Moore — were claimed, with the other teams absorbing their salaries. Outfielder Randal Grichuk cleared waivers, however, as no team wanted to take what remained of the $1.7MM that the Halos had assumed on Grichuk’s contract when acquiring him from Colorado.

That’ll apparently be the difference, as Fletcher adds that the Halos would’ve indeed gotten under the threshold had Grichuk been claimed. The Angels could theoretically still try to cut some spending by placing someone else on waivers. Players claimed after August 31 wouldn’t be eligible for postseason work with an acquiring team, but the Halos have more controllable players making above-minimum salaries (e.g. Luis Rengifo or Carlos Estévez) who’d likely be claimed with an eye towards next season if the Angels simply wanted to clear them off the books.

It doesn’t seem that’s the plan though. Minasian told Fletcher he doesn’t believe that paying the CBT this year will affect the club’s budget during the upcoming offseason. The team will barely pay any extra money this year, as they’ll only be taxed at a 20% rate on the minimal amount on which they surpassed the threshold. Nevertheless, it’ll have an impact in a few ways.

Most notably, it subjects the organization to higher fees in the event they exceed the threshold in consecutive seasons. Teams that pay the tax for a second straight year are charged a 30% fee (higher than the 20% standard rate) on their first $20MM of overages the following season. The fees continue to escalate for clubs that exceed the tax for a third straight year and/or surpass the threshold by upwards of $20MM.

CBT payors also receive reduced compensation for losing qualified free agents. The Angels are going to make a qualifying offer to Shohei Ohtani, which he’ll decline. If he subsequently signs elsewhere, the Halos would receive a compensation pick after the fourth round in the 2024 draft. That’s typically around the 140th overall selection. Had the Angels gotten under the threshold, the compensatory pick would’ve landed between Competitive Balance Round B and the third round — approximately 70th overall.

The Angels will hope that latter point is irrelevant because they re-sign Ohtani. (None of their other impending free agents are candidates for the QO.) That won’t be known until the offseason, though an Ohtani deal would likely mean they’re nearing luxury tax territory yet again. Roster Resource projects the Halos’ 2024 CBT number around $131MM. That’s well shy of next season’s $237MM base threshold, but it doesn’t include arbitration estimates. Ohtani’s contract alone figures to tack on at least $40-45MM and could well pay north of $50MM per season. The Angels would obviously need to supplement the roster around Ohtani if they retain him, likely by adding infield depth, at least one starting pitcher and multiple bullpen arms.

Guardians Claim Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, Matt Moore

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In a swift retooling of the pitching staff, the Guardians have claimed right-handers Lucas Giolito and Reynaldo Lopez and lefty Matt Moore off waivers from the Angels, Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN report. It’s a sudden, jarring final push to salvage a postseason appearance by Cleveland — one that would have seemed impossible just 72 hours ago.

The Angels’ decision to place roughly a quarter of their roster on waivers — Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone all hit waivers on Tuesday as well — stunned the industry, though the rationale behind it is at least sound. The Angels aggressively pushed for a postseason berth at the deadline, acquiring Giolito, Lopez, Grichuk and C.J. Cron, but have since lost two-thirds of their games and fallen from postseason contention in a stacked AL West. (Somewhat amusingly, their 64-70 record is the same as the Guardians, though the AL Central is the sport’s weakest division.)

That slate of trades pushed the Halos over the luxury tax threshold, which would reduce their draft compensation in the event that Shohei Ohtani signs elsewhere after rejecting a qualifying offer. They’d also face steeper penalties in 2024 in the event that they exceeded the tax barrier next year. But, by waiving this slate of players and seeing each of Giolito, Lopez, Moore, Renfroe (Reds) and Leone (Mariners) all come off the books, the Angels will duck back under the tax threshold. Their theoretical comp pick for Ohtani’s departure would come prior to the third round of the draft rather than between the fourth and fifth rounds. They also won’t face any escalating penalties in the event that they wind up as a luxury tax payor next season.

It’s a bad look for MLB to see such a brazenly non-competitive move by a team that just four weeks ago energized its fanbase and clubhouse with a bold win-now push. At the same time, the Angels can’t really be faulted for the decision at this juncture, given the manner in which things have played out. They’re merely taking advantage of the rules that have been collectively bargained between the league and the Players Association. None of the players they waived would’ve been eligible or considered for a qualifying offer anyhow, so there’s quite literally no incentive for the Angels to hold onto them and strong incentive for them to engage in this tactic now that their playoff hopes are all but mathematically dashed.

While Major League Baseball perhaps ought to look into ways to prevent mass roster purges of this nature in future Augusts, there’s little to be done about it now — and the Guardians stand to benefit. Cleveland has spent the entirety of the year looking up at the Twins in the American League Central standings, and after taking two of three from Minnesota in their just-completed series now faces only a five-game deficit. It’s worth wondering what might’ve happened if the Twins had swept or at least won the series — Minnesota was within one strike of winning yesterday’s game, but the bullpen couldn’t hold the lead — though perhaps Cleveland would’ve made the claims even if facing a six- or seven-game deficit.

A firm answer to that hypothetical probably can’t ever be known, but it’s a moot point anyhow; the Guardians’ comeback win yesterday brought them within striking distance of the Twins in the division, and they’ll now add three high-caliber arms to their pitching staff. Giolito, of course, is the most notable of the bunch and perhaps the most vital, given the extent of the pitching injuries that have ravaged the Cleveland rotation this year. Each of Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill has been out more seven weeks. The Guardians, acknowledging that their playoff hopes had slipped, traded Aaron Civale to the Rays prior to the deadline.

Giolito joins a rookie-laden rotation, adding a veteran arm to stand alongside the impressive trio of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams and Logan Allen. The expectation is that Quantrill will soon be ready to join that group, and the club has also expressed optimism that Bieber could return late in the month.

While the 2023 season has been Giolito’s worst in recent memory, that’s largely due to poor results with the team that just waived him. After pitching to a 3.79 ERA with a 25.8% strikeout rate and 8.3% walk rate in 121 innings with the White Sox, Giolito was torched for a 6.89 ERA with worse strikeout (22.8%) and walk (10.3%) rates as a member of the Halos. Most dramatically, an already too-high home run rate of 1.49 per nine innings pitched spiked to 2.76 as an Angel.

Looking at Giolito’s track record as a whole, however, it’s easy enough to see why he was claimed by several teams (the others all having lower waiver priority than Cleveland). Dating back to 2019, Giolito sports a 3.99 ERA in 743 innings. His strikeout rate has dipped over the past two seasons, but he’s still averaging 93-94 mph on his heater, punching out about a quarter of his opponents, and has generally shown good command throughout his MLB career. The Cy Young-caliber breakout many expected perhaps never came, but Giolito is a durable mid-rotation arm who misses bats, limits walks and is a playoff-caliber arm.

Meanwhile, an already excellent Cleveland bullpen will now add two formidable arms in Lopez and Moore. Guardians relievers already rank fifth in the Majors with a 3.48 ERA, and the addition of two veterans just in time for rosters to expand will put them in the conversation for best relief corps in baseball.

Lopez, 29, is one of MLB’s hardest throwers, averaging a blistering 98.4 mph on his heater this year. He’s seen his previously strong command erode in 2023, walking a career-worst 12.6% of his opponents, but he’s also fanning a career-best 29.8% of hitters and boasting a career-high 14.1% swinging-strike rate. In 55 innings of relief, the former top prospect has a 3.93 ERA. Lopez is limiting hard contact at the best levels of his career as well and throwing his blazing fastball more often than ever before — generally at the expense of his third and fourth pitches (curveball, changeup). He’s primarily been a fastball/slider pitcher this year, and while the results have been a bit mixed, he’ll add a power arm capable of missing bats in droves to Terry Francona’s bullpen.

Moore, meanwhile, gives Francona a second lefty alongside Sam Hentges. The 34-year-old has found new life in his career since moving to a full-time relief role last year. He’s pitched 44 innings for the Angels in 2023, working to a 2.66 ERA with a career-high 28% strikeout rate and a very strong 6.9% walk rate.

Once the game’s consensus top pitching prospect, Moore impressed early on with the Rays before Tommy John surgery derailed his career. The left-hander never seemed to fully recover. After pitching to a 3.53 ERA from 2011-14, he missed most of the 2014-15 seasons recovering from that surgery, and posted a 5.26 ERA over his next 620 2/3 innings post-surgery.

Moore had a one-year stop in Japan along the way and pitched fairly well there, but it wasn’t until signing a minor league deal with Texas last year that he became a pitcher of note at the big league level again. Moore’s 1.95 ERA set the stage for a $7.55MM deal with the Angels this year, and he’s now logged a combined 2.21 ERA in his career’s second act as a late-inning reliever.

All in all, it’s a borderline unheard-of boon to a Major League pitching staff at this stage of a season — and all it will cost the Guardians is the collective $3.727MM that remain on the trio’s 2023 contracts. Each of Giolito, Moore and Lopez will be a free agent after the season, and the Guardians won’t receive any compensation if and when they enter free agency. They’re still a long shot to erase that five-game gap in the standings, particularly with the Twins still having series against the A’s, Rockies, White Sox, Mets and a now-depleted Angels team. But the Guardians were presented an opportunity to do everything they could to boost their slim playoff odds, and just like the Angels did one month ago, they took their shot.

Reds Claim Harrison Bader, Hunter Renfroe

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The Reds have claimed outfielder Harrison Bader off waivers from the Yankees, reports Jeff Passan of ESPN. The Reds also claimed outfielder Hunter Renfroe from the Angels, per Jesse Rogers of ESPN. By joining the Reds prior to September 1, each will be eligible to participate in the postseason if the club eventually makes it.

Bader, 29, and Renfroe, 31, were two of several veteran players placed on waivers this week. There were many clubs who were still hovering around contention at the trade deadline but slipped back in the standings in the month of August. But the opportunity to trade impending free agents for any kind of return had passed by, leaving them little recourse but to place those players on waivers. By doing so, they could perhaps at least save themselves some money since the claiming team takes on the remainder of the contract, while allowing the player to move somewhere with a chance to contend and perhaps make the playoffs.

Both Bader and Renfroe will do just that, jumping from their respective clubs to the Reds, who have emerged from their rebuild in amazing fashion this year. Several rookies have been called up and have been able to hit the ground running, allowing the club to currently find themselves just one game out of a National League Wild Card spot with a record of 69-66. They will now add a couple of veteran players into the mix for their stretch run, for nothing but a financial cost.

Bader has long been an excellent fielder in center, starting with the Cardinals and continuing with the Yankees after a trade last year. In 621 career games, he’s tallied 53 Defensive Runs Saved, 67 Outs Above Average and a grade of 46.7 from Ultimate Zone Rating. Injuries have been an ongoing issue, however, with Bader only twice playing in more than 103 games in a season. Those instances were back in 2018 and 2019, with multiple IL trips in the seasons since.

At the plate, he’s been less impressive than in the field, usually hovering around league average. His career batting line is .244/.312/.399, which translates to a wRC+ of 93, but he’s hitting just .240/.278/.365 this year for a 76 wRC+. But his speed has allowed him to steal 74 bases in his career, including 17 already this season.

Renfroe is effectively the inverse to Bader, as his bat his generally his best trait, with his speed and defense considered subpar. Though his offense is his standout trait, he’s inconsistent in that regard, with his production oscillating between either side of league average. Over 2021 and 2022, he hit 60 home runs and produced a batting line of .257/.315/.496, amounting to a wRC+ of 118. But this year, he’s down a bit to .242/.304/.434 and a 98 wRC+.

Despite each player’s value, the Yankees and Angels fell back in the standings in August and gave up on their hopes of contending. Both of these players are impending free agents and neither would warrant a qualifying offer at season’s end, so their respective clubs placed them on waivers in the hopes that another team would put in a claim and take the remainder of the contract off their hands.

The waiver priority order is the reverse of the standings, with the worst clubs having first dibs. But non-contending clubs would have no incentive for claiming these players, so they have naturally skipped to a contender. In this case, some other fringe contenders like the Guardians and Marlins passed on Bader and Renfroe, though the Reds benefited by being in the playoff race but with a worse record than some of the clubs they are battling.

By adding Renfroe and Bader into the mix, the Reds have further crowded their outfield picture. In recent days, they have had TJ Friedl in center, with Will Benson and Nick Senzel getting regular work in the corners, backed up by Stuart Fairchild and TJ Hopkins. There’s also Jake Fraley, who is on the injured list but currently on a rehab assignment. Spencer Steer has been covering second base with Matt McLain on the IL but could end up back in the outfield if McLain returns.

There’s a lot of moving parts there but the Reds will likely figure out a way to make it work. Senzel is hitting just .219/.289/.371 this year and could be bumped from the regular lineup by Renfroe. Friedl was hitting .313/.379/.486 through June but has slumped to a line of .221/.278/.352 since the calendar flipped to July, perhaps leading to Bader taking some of his playing time. There’s also the designated hitter slot, which has been used by Nick Martini of late. He’s been red hot but in a small sample of just nine games.

However it plays out, the Reds are taking on some money to try to push themselves into the postseason. Bader is making $4.7MM this year with around $783K left to be paid out, while Renfroe has about $1.98MM left on his $11.9MM salary. That leaves the Reds taking on close to $2.76MM in these moves, though the savings for the other clubs will be greater.

The Yankees are set to pay the luxury tax for a second straight year and have been hovering around the fourth CBT tier. That means they will be paying a 75% tax on any spending over the $273MM line and a 90% tax on any spending over the $293MM line. By having Bader claimed on waivers, they will save the remainder of his contract and also reduce their tax bill.

For the Angels, they were narrowly over the lowest CBT threshold and may be able to duck below. In addition to the Reds claiming Renfroe, the Guardians claimed Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore and Reynaldo López while the Mariners claimed Dominic Leone. In addition to the straightforward cost savings, those claims could potentially push them out of payor status, though that won’t be officially known until the offseason. If they did successfully avoid the tax, that would impact the draft pick they receive in the event Shohei Ohtani signs elsewhere after rejecting a qualifying offer. A team that pays the luxury tax sees their compensatory draft pick moved back from just before the third round to just after the fourth, moving from around pick 75-80 to around 140. There are also compounding penalties for repeat payors, meaning that getting below the line here in 2023 could have impacts for the Halos into the future as well.

Images courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Angels To Select Kyren Paris

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The Angels plan to promote middle infield prospect Kyren Paris from Double-A Rocket City, reports Taylor Blake Ward of the Sporting Tribune (on Twitter). He’ll take one of a number of open roster spots for the Halos.

Paris, whom Baseball America recently ranked the #5 prospect in the Angels’ system, was a second round pick out of a Bay Area high school in 2019. He has been among the better prospects in the organization since then even though the canceled 2020 minor league campaign combined with hamate and leg fractures to keep him from playing regularly until 2022.

The righty-swinging infielder spent most of last season in High-A, where he hit .229/.345/.387 over 89 contests. The Angels bumped him to Double-A late in the year. He has spent all of 2023 in Rocket City, putting up a .255/.393/.417 batting line through 514 trips to the plate. It’s a solid showing for a 21-year-old overall, although Paris’ profile is fairly volatile.

Prospect evaluators praise his athleticism and plus speed. Paris has stolen 44 bases and been caught just five times this year. He has connected on 14 home runs, 23 doubles and a triple despite a fairly slight 6’0″ frame. Scouting reports raise questions about whether he has the arm strength to stick on the left side of the infield but suggest he could be a good defensive second baseman.

At the same time, there are questions about Paris’ inconsistency making contact. He’s striking out at a near-30% clip in the minors. His youth and lack of professional experience have surely played a role, but Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs wrote in June that Paris is always likely to have well below-average contact skills because of middling bat control.

Even for an organization that is very aggressive about promoting prospects, jumping Paris past Triple-A when he’s striking out so frequently in Double-A is a surprising decision. He’ll likely have some growing pains in his initial look at big league pitching. The Angels are content to live with potential early struggles to get Paris some experience as they close out another disappointing season.

Paris could step in as the primary shortstop with Zach Neto on the injured list. The Halos have been playing Luis Rengifo there. The utilityman is capable of moving around the diamond and could see increased outfield reps after Hunter Renfroe was moved on waivers.

Also taking a 40-man roster spot is right-hander Davis Daniel. The Angels reinstated him from the 60-day injured list and optioned him to Triple-A Salt Lake this afternoon. Daniel has missed the entire season with a shoulder strain. He was called to the majors for a point last summer but has yet to make his MLB debut. Los Angeles still has three open 40-man spots.

Randal Grichuk Clears Waivers

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Angels outfielder Randal Grichuk was not claimed on outright waivers, reports ESPN’s Jeff Passan. He’ll remain with the Halos unless they surprisingly choose to outright him to a minor league affiliate, at which point Grichuk would have the right to elect free agency.

Los Angeles acquired Grichuk from the Rockies on July 30. The veteran outfielder had a .308/.365/.498 batting line at the time. He hasn’t hit at all since landing in Southern California, posting a .168/.220/.347 slash in 109 plate appearances as an Angel. Grichuk’s strikeout rate is up more than four percentage points relative to his time in Colorado.

Dismal batted ball luck has surely played a role. After hitting .363 on balls in play for the Rox, Grichuk owns just a .181 BABIP for the Halos. Nevertheless, other clubs were concerned enough about his recent drop-off not to add him to the roster. Los Angeles successfully moved on from Hunter Renfroe — he was claimed by the Reds — so they’ll presumably keep Grichuk on the major league club to play out the stretch run.

The 32-year-old is making $9.33MM on the season. That’s being divided among three teams. The Blue Jays are covering $4.33MM as part of the trade that sent him to Colorado over the 2021-22 offseason. The Rockies are paying down around half the remaining salary as a condition of the trade with the Halos, leaving Los Angeles on the hook for the prorated portion of approximately $2.5MM. Grichuk will be a free agent at the end of the season.

Mariners Claim Dominic Leone From Angels

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The Mariners have claimed right-hander Dominic Leone off waivers from the Angels, reports Ryan Divish of The Seattle Times. The reliever was one of a handful of players waived by Los Angeles in a salary dump.

It’s the fourth organization of the season for Leone, who originally broke into the majors with Seattle nine years ago. He began on a minor league deal with Texas but didn’t crack the Rangers’ MLB roster. Leone moved to the Mets via free agency and turned in 30 2/3 innings of 4.40 ERA ball. He struggled with homers in Queens but posted better than average strikeout and walk marks.

The Halos acquired Leone just before the August 1 trade deadline. As was the case for the bulk of the roster over the last few weeks, he struggled in Orange County. Leone was tagged for eight runs in 13 frames as an Angel. He walked nine while striking out 11. For the season, the 31-year-old now carries a 4.74 ERA across 43 2/3 frames. He’s striking hitters out at a league average 23.4% clip but has now walked just under 11% of batters faced.

It’s not the most dominant performance, but Leone has shown an intriguing arsenal on a pitch-for-pitch basis. He’s averaging just under 96 MPH on his heater and has gotten swinging strikes on a massive 15.7% of his offerings between the two clubs. He’ll add a power arm to the middle innings, furthering deepening a very good Seattle relief corps.

The combination of power stuff but inconsistent results explains both why the M’s rolled the dice on Leone and why so many other teams did not. Seattle had the #26 waiver priority, meaning everyone aside from the Rays, Orioles, Dodgers and Braves certainly passed.

Seattle will need to clear a spot on the 40-man roster once they officially announce the claim. Leone can take the extra spot on the active roster during tomorrow’s expansion. It’s a low-cost roll of the dice, as Seattle will take on roughly $258K in remaining salary on Leone’s $1.5MM contract. He’ll be a free agent at season’s end.

The Best Fits For Harrison Bader, Hunter Renfroe, Randal Grichuk

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A somewhat surprising trend began yesterday when the Angels placed six members of their active roster on outright waivers: Lucas Giolito, Hunter Renfroe, Reynaldo Lopez, Matt Moore, Randal Grichuk and Dominic Leone. The White Sox (Mike Clevinger), Mets (Carlos Carrasco) and Tigers (Jose Cisnero) all followed suit, to varying degrees.

In many ways, it hearkens back to the days of revocable August trade waivers, when it was common for teams to run the majority of their roster through trade waivers. That led to what was effectively a second trade deadline at the end of August, as high-priced veterans who’d gone unclaimed were free to be moved. This set of circumstances, however, is quite different.

The players waived by the Angels, White Sox, Mets and Tigers are on irrevocable outright waivers. Any team that is awarded a claim on one of these players immediately takes on the remainder of that player’s contract. If one of these veterans goes unclaimed — it’s likely that a few of them will — their current team does not have to outright them to a minor league affiliate. They can simply return said player to their active roster and continue playing him as normal. (The Angels reportedly already passed Tyler Anderson through outright waivers last week and just kept him on the roster after he went unclaimed.) Similarly, these players are quite obviously free to keep playing. Many of them played last night. Renfroe literally hit a home run as I was typing this paragraph. Waivers are fun!

The outright waiver period is 48 hours, meaning we’ll have resolution on everyone from this group at some point tomorrow afternoon (though news of the claims being awarded could be staggered a bit). Waiver priority is determined based on reverse order of winning percentage and is not league specific. League-specific waiver priority was unique to revocable August trade waivers and is now defunct. It’s a common misconception that it remains in place, but MLBTR has confirmed with league sources on multiple occasions that waiver priority is simply worst team through best team — in this case, starting with the A’s and ending with the Braves. More specifically, waiver priority is determined based on the reverse standings on the day players clear waivers, meaning we’ll know the final waiver priority for all of these veterans once tonight’s games are wrapped up.

That’s a whole bunch of preamble that may or may not have been necessary, depending on your prior understanding of waiver minutiae. It felt pertinent to do a brief crash course, however, given the unusual nature of this sequence of moves and the major ramifications it could hold with teams in a tight playoff race.

It’s fair to assume the non-contenders are going to pass on picking up any of these players — they’re all impending free agents — but any club with a glimmer of postseason hope could place a claim. That technically includes the Guardians and the Padres, although both are long shots, at best to play meaningful games in October. FanGraphs gives Cleveland and San Diego respective playoff odds of 3.3% and 1.8%, while Baseball Prospectus has the Guards at just 1.6% and the Friars at what seems like a generous 7%. You can never rule out the Padres on big-name players, but they’re already in the third tier of luxury penalization, so anyone they acquire will come with a 75% tax. It’d be a steep price to pay, but hey, when has that ever stopped president of baseball ops A.J. Preller and owner Peter Seidler?

We’re writing about the best fits for this trio of outfielders, however, and the “best” fit doesn’t seem like a team whose playoff hopes are the rough equivalent of hitting a one-outer on the river in a hand of Texas Hold ’Em. So, with all that said, let’s take a look at each outfielder, how much he’s still owed on his contract, his strengths/flaws, whether he’s likely to be claimed at all, and where he might best fit among the group of contenders who’ll have priority over the Braves, Orioles, Dodgers, Rays and Mariners (i.e. the upper echelon of MLB’s standings).

Harrison Bader
Age: 29 | Bats: R | Salary: $4.7MM ($783K yet to be paid out) | Position: Center Field

Bader is the youngest, the cheapest and the likeliest of this trio to be claimed. Age and salary play a major role in that, but so does his glove. Bader isn’t just the best defensive outfielder of this bunch — he’s one of the best defensive outfielders in Major League Baseball. He can play any of the three outfield spots, but the defense is so strong that it’s almost a waste to have him anywhere other than center. In 4243 innings of center field play at the big league level, Bader has piled up 43 Defensive Runs Saved and a mammoth 61 Outs Above Average.

For some further context, Bader’s 4243 innings in center field from 2017-23 rank just 96th among all big league players in terms of total innings played at one position. But he nevertheless ranks 18th among all Major Leaguers in Defensive Runs Saved and seventh in Outs Above Average. In other words, even though 95 players have had a larger sample of innings to rack up accolades in that pair of cumulative defensive metrics, Bader still has higher totals than nearly all of them.

Prior to the 2023 season, Bader has been more or less a league-average hitter. From 2018-22, he batted .245/.319/.407 — good for a 98 wRC+. By that measure, he was 2% worse than a big league hitter. For a player with this type of defensive talent, that made him a standout all-around performer. This year, however, has seen his bat take a step back. Bader is fanning at a career-low 18%, but he’s hitting just .239/.275/.365. He’s walking less than ever, hitting more fly balls than ever before, and seeing just 6.5% of those flies turn into home runs (the second-lowest mark of his career).

One thing Bader is doing quite well — and that he’s always done well — is torching left-handed pitching. He’s a career .267/.332/.508 batter against southpaws, but in 2023 he’s absolutely demolishing lefties at a .348/.389/.697 clip. Granted, it’s only 72 plate appearances, but Bader has nonetheless been a behemoth when holding the platoon advantage.

Any team can stand to improve its outfield defense, but there are still a few contenders who could make particular use of this type of glove. The Marlins have been seeking a center fielder for years. They rank 29th in the Majors with -19 DRS and are tied for 22nd with -7 OAA. The Phillies, Red Sox, Giants and Cubs all grade as below-average defensive outfield units, too. As far as production against lefties, the Giants, Diamondbacks, Twins and Reds are all bunched tightly together in terms of wRC+ (ranging San Francisco’s 90 to Cincinnati’s 94). The Brewers are also at 94, but they’re currently tied with the Rangers and Astros for the sixth-worst waiver priority in MLB. It’s hard to imagine Bader falling that far.

The Twins have a similar skill set here (Michael A. Taylor) and are hoping to get Byron Buxton back soon. The Cubs and Red Sox make some sense — Boston in particular, after Jarren Duran’s injury — but both are a ways down the waiver pecking order. Bader would make any contending team better — even if only as a bench player — but he seems like a particularly good fit for the Marlins or the Giants.

Hunter Renfroe
Age: 31 | Bats: R | Salary: $11.9MM ($1.98MM remaining) | Position: Right field

Renfroe’s salary is significant enough that he’s not a lock to be claimed at all — particularly since he’s in the midst of a down year at the plate (the aforementioned homer notwithstanding). A well above-average hitter with the Red Sox and Brewers in 2021-22 when he batted .257/.315/.496, Renfroe finds himself batting .239/.301/.430 on the year — about 3% worse than average, per wRC+. He’s hitting more grounders than he has since his rookie season, popping up more often than ever, and has seen both his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate drop to nearly career-low levels.

Earlier in his career, Renfroe was considered a premium defensive outfielder, but his sprint speed and outfield reads have degraded over the past few years, per Statcast. His raw arm strength still sits in the 92nd percentile of MLB players, so opposing baserunners will want to think twice about tagging up when Renfroe is on the receiving end of a fly-ball, but Renfroe’s range simply isn’t what it once was. DRS pegs him at -8, while OAA is a bit more favorable but still gives him a mark of -3.

Traditionally, Renfroe has punished left-handed pitching. He’s a lifetime .261/.342/.523 hitter against lefties in the big leagues, but this season has seen that production muted. Nearly all of Renfroe’s power has come against right-handed opponents; he’s hitting .250/.304/.356 against lefties, with a higher strikeout rate and lower walk rate than he currently sports against right-handed opponents.

Renfroe was hot-potato’ed around the league even during more productive times, bouncing to four teams in four years — Rays, Red Sox, Brewers, Angels — a reflection of the manner in which the market has generally deprioritized/devalued bat-first corner players with OBP concerns. It’ll now cost a team just shy of $2MM to rent him for one month, and that may be a price at which some clubs balk.

That said, Renfroe has some track record and has still been a roughly average hitter in 2023. He’d be an upgrade over bench bats that are being rostered even on a number of contending clubs, and a team dealing with injuries in the outfield could certainly view him as a potential difference-maker.

While the Marlins could use Bader in center, they’re well-stocked on corner options and have Jorge Soler at DH. The Red Sox and Brewers have both already traded Renfroe once. The Giants (Mitch Haniger) and D-backs (Tommy Pham) have relatively similar players. The Twins could view Renfroe as a viable upgrade over Jordan Luplow or the struggling Joey Gallo, and the Reds are a fit with Jake Fraley, Joey Votto and Jonathan India on the injured list. Renfroe could push Nick Senzel back to Triple-A. If Renfroe makes it to the Mariners, he could be an upgrade over Dominic Canzone in left field with Jarred Kelenic out. The Dodgers could certainly afford to add Renfroe with J.D. Martinez on the injured list and a slew of lefty-hitting outfield options — if he makes it that far.

Randal Grichuk
Age: 32 | Bats: R | Salary: $9.333MM ($1.55MM remaining) | Position: All three outfield spots

Grichuk was having a strong season with the Rockies, batting .308/.365/.496 in 263 plate appearances, but his bat cratered following a trade to the Halos. In 104 plate appearances since the swap, he’s batted .165/.212/.351 with a 25% strikeout rate that’s considerably higher than the 19.4% mark he posted in Denver.

Grichuk has long been a limited player despite tools that suggest otherwise. Statcast annually grades him with above-average speed and arm strength, but he’s never been a threat to steal bases and has drawn inconsistent (at best) grades for his defense around the outfield. He’s probably best-suited for corner work at this point, but the Rox and Angels have given him 143 innings in center this year. He has more than 3000 career innings in both center and right, in addition to nearly 1200 innings in left, so he’s at least going to feel familiar with whichever outfield slot he plays.

While he’s long shown above-average power — career .216 ISO, career-high 31 homers back in 2019, five seasons of 20-plus homers — Grichuk’s offensive value is regularly undercut by his distaste for walks. He’s drawn a free pass in just 5.6% of his career plate appearances, resulting in a lifetime OBP under .300 (.296).

That said, it may be a limited skill set, but Grichuk shines in one particular area: tormenting left-handed pitching. He’s hitting .330/.394/.596 against lefties in 2023 and is a career .266/.314/.503 hitter in such situations.

Grichuk is a bit more affordable than Renfroe, is having a much better season against lefties, and can play center in a pinch, so he may hold more appeal. That same group of the Giants, D-backs, Twins, Reds and Brewers could all use help against southpaws. The Giants are deep in right-handed outfielders though, and the D-backs have Pham to fill a similar role. The Reds and Twins could look at Grichuk for the same reasons they might consider Renfroe, and the Brewers could look at him as a boost against lefties who’d take some pressure off struggling Tyrone Taylor and young Sal Frelick.

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