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2018-19 Opt-Out & Player Option Decisions

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With Major League teams increasingly adding opt-out provisions to free-agent contracts as a means of incentivizing players to sign, there are now a handful of those decisions that impact the free-agent market every offseason. With nearly 90 percent of the season already in the books, many of the opt-out decisions/player option decisions look pretty clear cut.

Things could change over the final month, but here’s a look at where things currently stand…

Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (Two years, $65MM remaining): Truthfully, Kershaw is the only player with an opt-out provision in 2018 who could be called likely to exercise the clause at present. While he hasn’t been quite as dominant as usual and has spent time on the DL for a third straight year (back issues, biceps tendinitis), it’s difficult to imagine him having to take less than that $65MM sum in free agency.

In 131 1/3 innings this season, Kershaw is sporting a 2.40 ERA with 8.7 K/9, 1.4 BB/9, 0.89 HR/9 and a 48.9 percent ground-ball rate. He hasn’t topped 200 innings since 2015, but he’s still a clearly elite starter. If he does formally opt out, the Dodgers can issue a qualifying offer, though perhaps the easiest scenario would be for Los Angeles to simply extend Kershaw’s current contract to prolong his already historic Dodgers career.

David Price, Red Sox (Four years, $127MM remaining): Price is having his best season with the Red Sox, having notched a 3.60 ERA with a strikeout per inning and 2.4 walks per nine innings pitched through 152 1/3 frames. His results have been solid, but it’s nearly impossible to imagine a scenario where he exceeds $127MM in free agency at the age of 33. Price’s Boston tenure has been rocky at times, but it seems likely that he’ll be back in the rotation next season.

[Related: Club option decisions on starting pitchers, relievers and position players]

Jason Heyward, Cubs (Five years, $106MM remaining): Declining to opt out is little more than a formality for Heyward at this point, as he hasn’t come close to living up to his $184MM contract in Chicago through the first three seasons. To his credit, though the 29-year-old has had a nice rebound effort, hitting .275/.342/.399 with above-average defense in right field. That might make the Cubs feel better about his contract moving forward, but it won’t be enough to prompt Heyward to test free agency. His contract contains a second opt-out clause following the 2019 season, at which point he’ll have four years and $86MM remaining, but that also seems like a long shot.

Elvis Andrus, Rangers (Four years, $58MM): Andrus could be considered more of a borderline call than some on this list, but he seems likelier to stay with Texas than to opt out. The 30-year-old hasn’t had a bad season, hitting .270/.322/.396 with quality defense, but his bat hasn’t been as potent as it was in 2016-17 when he hit a combined .299/.348/.457. The downturn in offensive output might not be entirely Andrus’ fault; he did incur a broken elbow when he was hit by a pitch earlier this season — an injury that caused him to miss just over two months of action. It’s easy to imagine that injury having a lingering effect on Andrus’ swing, too.

Like Heyward, Andrus has a second opt-out clause in his contract after the 2019 season. At that point, he’ll have three years and $43MM remaining on his contract. If his bat returns to its 2016-17 levels, surpassing that $43MM mark in free agency could be plausible. If Andrus opted out, he’d certainly be issued a qualifying offer — there’s no reason for the team to worry about him taking a one-year deal worth about $18MM when he just walked away from $58MM — which would only further hinder his earning power.

Yasmany Tomas, D-backs (Two years, $32.5MM remaining): Tomas clubbed 31 homers with the 2016 Diamondbacks but did so with a .315 on-base percentage and some of the worst defensive ratings of any player in the Majors — regardless of position. He’s since been outrighted off the 40-man roster and, in 371 Triple-A plate appearances this season, has 101 strikeouts against 11 walks with a .280 OBP. Suffice it to say: he’s not going anywhere.

Mark Melancon, Giants (Two years, $28MM remaining): Injuries have ruined Melancon’s first two seasons with the Giants, though he’s been excellent since returning in 2018: 2.64 ERA, 7.9K/9, 2.4 BB/9, 53.1 percent ground-ball rate in 30 2/3 innings. That performance is encouraging for the Giants as they look to 2019, but it won’t be enough to make Melancon’s camp think he can top $28MM heading into his age-34 season.

Brandon Kintzler, Cubs ($5MM player option): Kintzler’s contract technically contains a $10MM club option or a $5MM player option, but it’s clear given his dismal performance since being traded to Chicago that the team won’t be opting for that $10MM sum. Kintzler was very good with the Twins and Nationals from 2016 through this past July, but his typically excellent control has evaporated in Chicago while his hard-contact rate has skyrocketed. It’s only a sample of 11 2/3 innings, but his struggles make the option seem a fairly straightforward decision.

Eduardo Nunez, Red Sox ($5MM player option): Nunez’s deal comes with a $2MM buyout, making this effectively a $3MM decision for his camp. He’s struggled to the point that he may not even want to take that risk, though, hitting just .258/.282/.384 through 473 trips to the plate.

Rob Bradford of WEEI.com reported this week that Nunez’s option increased from $4MM to $5MM once he reached 400 plate appearances. Bradford spoke to Nunez, who acknowledged that the knee that gave out on him in the postseason last year has been a problem for him throughout 2018, though he believes he’s finally “close” to 100 percent. Perhaps a strong month and a big postseason could prompt him to again test the open market, but his overall production to this point makes the player option seem a likelier outcome.

Giants Activate Mark Melancon, Designate Jose Valdez

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The Giants have activated veteran reliever Mark Melancon from the disabled list, as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was among those to report (via Twitter). To create a roster spot, the club designated righty Jose Valdez for assignment (technically, after activating him from the 10-day DL).

Melancon will appear for the first time this season. He has dealt with ongoing elbow and forearm issues since joining the San Francisco organization on a four-year, $62MM contract before the 2017 season.

Though he signed to be a closer, Melancon is expected to spend some time working up to speed before his role settles out. Hunter Strickland has handled the ninth inning to open the year, performing well though perhaps not putting the job in a stranglehold, either.

It remains to be seen how that’ll all shake out. Generally, it’s preferable to have that problem than for Melancon still to be on the shelf. It is fair to wonder, though: since the Giants are paying Melancon top dollar, perhaps they would prefer to see him return to closing rather than running up Strickland’s future arbitration tab by giving him save opportunities.

Valdez, 28, has been knocked around in five MLB innings on the year, allowing three long balls among eight total base hits. He carries a 6.34 ERA in 55 1/3 total frames at the game’s highest level over the past four seasons.

West Notes: Treinen, Melancon, Lincecum

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Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle examines Athletics closer Blake Treinen’s improved results since coming to Oakland last summer. The big righty has always shown phenomenal pure stuff in the majors, but had not quite figured out how to maximize it on the hill. While he’s handing out less walks than before, he’s also working in the zone less than in prior years. And he has generated less grounders (a still-impressive 53.3%) in exchange for a jump in swinging-strikes (all the way up to 18.8%). Treinen credits experience gained through “the maturation process.” Whatever the precise cause, the results — a 1.19 ERA with 10.7 K/9 and 2.8 BB/9 over 22 2/3 innings in 2018 — certainly suggest that he has settled in nicely.

Here are a few more relief-related notes from out west:

  • The Giants, meanwhile, could soon face some interesting calls on their late-inning mix. As Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area writes, the club could welcome Mark Melancon back within two weeks or so, as the veteran reliever is set to begin a rehab assignment after opening the year on the shelf due to ongoing pronator issues. Skipper Bruce Bochy says the team will “let him get settled” rather than thrusting Melancon back into the closer’s role. Melancon, 33, is certainly being paid to handle the ninth. But Hunter Strickland has performed quite well in his absence, working to a 2.18 ERA with 9.6 K/9 against 2.2 BB/9. Just how that situation will be navigated over the course of the season remains to be seen.
  • It also is not yet clear what kind of contribution the Rangers will get from righty Tim Lincecum. As Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram writes, the veteran hurler is only touching 90 mph with his fastball despite reportedly showing more in a pre-signing showcase. He has produced better results of late in his rehab work, but in sum he has managed a less-than-promising 8:6 K/BB ratio in 8 1/3 innings over six outings. Of course, that’s too small a sample to read much into things. It isn’t known yet when Lincecum will get a crack at the majors, but barring a setback it seems it’ll come between May 28th (when he’s first eligible to return from the 60-day DL) and June 6th (when his thirty-day rehab period will expire).

Injury Notes: Wainwright, Braun, LeMahieu, Giants, Triggs

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The Cardinals’ sudden decision to transfer Adam Wainwright to the 60-day disabled list today means the Cardinals will be without him for a notable portion of the summer, but the exact cause of his elbow pain remains unclear, as Joe Trezza of MLB.com writes. President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said that there’s “nothing that really stood out as a smoking gun” after the first wave of tests, which included an MRI and a bone scan, but he’ll undergo a further series of evaluations tomorrow. “We don’t know what that is right now, other than he has discomfort,” said Mozeliak. While the club obviously has no defined timetable for Wainwright’s return, Mozeliak spoke with some cautious optimism: “He knows he might be part of that second-half push. …. I would guess he’ll pitch again.”

Some more injury news from around the league…

  • The Brewers announced that Ryan Braun has been placed on the 10-day DL, retroactive to Monday, with tightness in his back. They’ll announce a corresponding move tomorrow. The injury doesn’t sound to be especially serious at present, but Braun has been battling the discomfort for some time now and performing poorly as a result, Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel writes. Taking even the minimum 10 days off could help to get him back on track. The 34-year-old Braun hit .258/.304/.473 in April, but his bat cratered with a .121/.167/.242 slash thus far in the month of May.
  • In addition to a sprain in his left thumb, Rockies second baseman DJ LeMahieu has a small fracture, he told reporters on Thursday (link via Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post). While it’s not great news for the Rockies or LeMahieu, it’s hardly a worst-case scenario, either. LeMahieu is likely to miss at least three weeks or so with the injury, though the infielder explained that an exact timetable will be difficult to pin down before the swelling in his thumb subsides. On the plus side, doctors have told LeMahieu that he’ll avoid surgery and needs only rest to let the injury heal. He’s hoping to swing a bat as early as next week.
  • Mark Melancon threw 20 pitches to live hitters today and could begin a rehab assignment as soon as Sunday, tweets Kerry Crowley of the San Jose Mercury News. He’ll likely need about two weeks’ worth of rehab games, putting him on target for a return to the Giants in early June if all goes well. Meanwhile, Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets that Madison Bumgarner could make his first rehab start on May 26.
  • Athletics right-hander Andrew Triggs exited tonight’s start in Toronto after just 2 1/3 innings due to what the team is calling nerve discomfort in his right forearm, per Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. Presumably, he’ll head for further testing following the game, though the early diagnosis doesn’t sound especially promising. In the event of a DL trip for Triggs, the A’s could turn to righty Kendall Graveman, who is trying to get back on track in Triple-A after a rough start to the season. Right-hander Daniel Gossett has posted terrific numbers since being sent down to Nashville as well, while hard-throwing prospect Frankie Montas is also delivering solid production in Triple-A.

NL West Notes: Buehler, Padres, Melancon, D-backs

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Dodgers right-hander Walker Buehler has pitched his way into the club’s rotation for the foreseeable future, manager Dave Roberts told Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register and other reporters Saturday (Twitter link). Although Buehler is a past Tommy John surgery recipient who hasn’t yet thrown 100 innings in a professional season, his workload isn’t the Dodgers’ primary concern at the moment. “Right now we need to win games,” Roberts said of a potential innings limit for Buehler, who has combined for 29 between the majors and minors in 2018. The 23-year-old Buehler is regarded as one of the game’s elite pitching prospects, and he has lived up to the hype during his first three major league starts this season. Not only has Buehler tossed 16 innings of 1.13 ERA ball with 10.69 K/9 and 3.94 BB/9, but he was on the hill for the first six frames of the Dodgers’ combined no-hitter against the Padres on Saturday. His emergence has been especially timely for an LA team that just lost starter Hyun-Jin Ryu until the second half of the season.

  • Buehler and three relievers combined to fan 13 hitters Saturday, thus contributing to the Padres’ league-high strikeout rate (27.3 percent) and second-worst swinging-strike percentage (12.6). Padres manager Andy Green has seen just about enough, as Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune relays. “It’s well-known that we’ve punched out way too much,” Green said. “We’re at a point in time with hitters here where your opportunity will pass you by if you don’t make an adjustment and start putting the ball in play. The opportunity will start going to somebody else. We’ll continue to churn if we can’t get the job done.” Thanks in part to their swing-and-miss ways, the Padres are off to an 11-22 start – their worst since 2012, notes Acee, who suggests they could soon promote high-end middle infield prospect Luis Urias. The 20-year-old Urias, who has slashed .298/.416/.417 in 101 Triple-A plate appearances this season, would perhaps give San Diego’s offense a much-needed jolt.
  • Giants closer Mark Melancon threw a 20-pitch bullpen session Saturday and then informed reporters (including Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle) that he’s aiming to return from the 60-day disabled list May 25, when he’s first eligible (Twitter link). Melancon hasn’t pitched at all this season, the second of a four-year, $62MM deal, on account of a flexor strain in his right elbow. Nevertheless, the Giants’ bullpen has fared better statistically than it did in 2017, and fill-in closer Hunter Strickland has performed respectably in Melancon’s place.
  • Diamondbacks righty Kris Medlen had an ugly outing Friday in his first major league outing since 2016, allowing seven earned runs on nine hits and four walks in a loss to the Astros. The veteran lost his 25-man roster spot Saturday when the D-backs optioned him to Triple-A in favor of righty Braden Shipley, per a team announcement. Fortunately for Arizona, whose rotation will go without Robbie Ray (oblique strain) for several weeks and Taijuan Walker (Tommy John surgery) for the rest of the year, an intriguing reinforcement is making progress. Righty Shelby Miller, who’s on the mend from the TJ surgery he underwent last year, could pitch in an extended spring training game next week, manager Torey Lovullo told Richard Morin of the Arizona Republic and other reporters Saturday. Miller threw live batting practice Friday – and that went “very, very good,” per Lovullo – and is slated for a bullpen session Tuesday.

Injury Updates: Ohtani, CarGo, Giants, Matz

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Here’s the latest on some injury situations from around the game…

  • Shohei Ohtani will be available as a DH for the Angels’ upcoming series against the Orioles (from Tuesday to Thursday) but his next start on the mound won’t be until next weekend in Seattle at the earliest, manager Mike Scioscia told MLB.com’s Maria Guardado and other reporters.  Ohtani suffered a minor ankle injury while trying to beat out a grounder on Friday, and the team will hold Ohtani out of a scheduled start against the O’s in order to make sure the ankle is completely healed.  Ohtani’s availability against Baltimore indicates that the injury isn’t too serious, though he wasn’t in the lineup on Saturday or Sunday.
  • Carlos Gonzalez is likely to be activated from the Rockies’ disabled list on Monday, the Athletic’s Nick Groke reports (Twitter link).  Gonzalez was placed on the DL with a hamstring strain and was eligible to be activated today, so he’ll end up missing slightly more than the 10-day minimum.  The veteran outfielder had managed only a .235/.264/.426 slash line over his first 72 PA of the season as Gonzalez tries to rebound from a disappointing 2017 campaign.
  • Some Giants DL updates are provided by The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly (on Twitter), who notes that Madison Bumgarner could be cleared on Tuesday to play catch, while Mark Melancon is now throwing from 90 feet as the closer continues his recovery from a bothersome pronator.  More immediately, left-hander Will Smith is likely to be activated from the DL on Wednesday, making his return to MLB after missing all of 2017 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
  • The Mets will skip Steven Matz’s next turn in the rotation since the southpaw is dealing with some minor back stiffness.  Rather than start on Tuesday as scheduled, Matz will instead pitch on Saturday.  He told MLB.com’s Tim Powers and other reporters that he has dealt with the injury before and is “feeling good” following a bullpen session today, though he and the team are just being cautious to avoid a larger issue.  No rotation replacement will be needed, as the Mets don’t play on Monday.

Latest On Mark Melancon

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Giants closer Mark Melancon has still yet to take the hill for the team and it remains uncertain just when he will. Most recently, he underwent a stem cell injection to his troublesome pronator, as Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area was among those to report.

For the time being, the righty reliever is going to take another two weeks of rest before hopefully attempting to resume throwing. He’ll surely require a full ramp-up from that point, though it’s tough to know how long it may take for Melancon to work back to the MLB bullpen.

Melancon, who missed a big chunk of the 2017 season, seemed destined for the Opening Day roster until a late-spring announcement that he was struggling once more with forearm and elbow issues. It emerged that he had never been able to throw pain-free despite a surgical procedure performed in early September of last year.

There’s no particular reason at this point to find further concern with Melancon’s status, though the timing does indicate that rest alone did not solve the problem and it seems there’s still plenty of uncertainty in how things will progress. Regardless, the veteran hurler’s timeline will surely depend upon when he’s finally able to throw without discomfort.

Needless to say, the Giants are hoping to get a significant contribution from the 33-year-old sooner than later. He’s in the second season of a four-year, $62MM contract that now looks to be among the least productive investments ever made in a relief pitcher. To this point, Melancon has provided the San Francisco organization with only thirty innings of 4.50 ERA pitching — though he did carry a typically solid 29:6 K/BB ratio last year.

Giants Place Mark Melancon On Disabled List, Select Gregor Blanco

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2:55pm: Melancon spoke to reporters about his injury today and described the pain he’s feeling as similar to the pain he felt last season when a pronator strain limited him to 30 innings (Twitter link via Kerry Crowley of the San Jose Mercury News). More troubling is the fact that the right-hander revealed he cannot throw from more than 30 feet without experiencing pain.

Alex Pavlovic of NBC Sports Bay Area tweets that Melancon said he felt pain all spring when pitching, but the discomfort increased substantially when he attempted to pitch on consecutive days. He’ll see a specialist when the Giants are in Los Angeles.

11:11am: The Giants announced that they’ve placed Mark Melancon on the 10-day disabled list, retroactive to March 26, with a flexor strain in his right elbow. San Francisco also placed Rule 5 pick Julian Fernandez on the 60-day DL to open the season, clearing a 40-man spot to select the contract of outfielder Gregor Blanco, who’ll officially return for another stint with the Giants. With Melancon on the shelf, the Giants will likely look to Sam Dyson and Hunter Strickland as potential ninth-inning options.

It’s not yet clear how long Melancon will be sidelined, though he missed a significant portion of the 2017 season — his first with the Giants after signing a then-record four-year, $62MM contract — due to a pronator strain in his right forearm. Melancon posted a 4.50 ERA in just 30 innings with the Giants last season, though his peripheral numbers were considerably better, and fielding-independent metrics were far more bullish than his more rudimentary ERA (3.22 FIP, 3.24 SIERA).

Blanco, 34, was a mainstay with the Giants from 2012-16 before jumping to the D-backs last offseason. He impressed with a .303/.405/.576 slash in 43 plate appearances this spring, but he’s struggled to a .234/.323/.333 batting line across the past two big league campaigns. He’ll give manager Bruce Bochy some depth across the board in the outfield and a potential left-handed complement to Austin Jackson, Hunter Pence and/or Andrew McCutchen when needed.

Blanco’s addition to the roster means the Giants prospect Steven Duggar will open the season in the minors, though the organization hopes that Duggar will force his way into the mix later this season and hold down a long-term spot in the outfield.

Latest On Giants’ Pitching Injuries

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The injury bug has continued to attack Giants pitching, as manager Bruce Bochy told reporters (including NBCSports.com’s Alex Pavlovic and Kerry Crowley of the Bay Area News Group) that right-hander Julian Fernandez has suffered a UCL sprain and is headed to the disabled list.  Furthermore, closer Mark Melancon’s availability for Opening Day could be in question, as his arm is still bothering him after making back-to-back appearances last Thursday and Friday.

Fernandez was selected out of the Rockies’ farm system in last December’s Rule 5 Draft, and would’ve had to remain on San Francisco’s 25-man roster all season or else be offered back to Colorado.  Placing Fernandez on the DL would keep him in the Giants organization for now, though the larger concern is the 22-year-old’s health status.  The timeline for such UCL injuries vary greatly due to the severity of the sprain, though Fernandez will likely be sidelined for at least a few months.

If Fernandez did require Tommy John surgery, that procedure would have an interesting big-picture impact on the Giants.  As The Athletic’s Andrew Baggarly observes, Fernandez would be placed on the Major League disabled list and clock a year of service time while recovering from a TJ procedure, and he would also earn the $545K minimum salary.  Even that small payroll addition would be an added stress for a Giants team that has very little space under the $197MM luxury tax threshold, after the team made a point this offseason of somewhat limiting its spending to get under the threshold and reset its tax overage counter.  That $545K would be an expense that the Giants weren’t planning to make at all for Fernandez, as he struggled (13.50 ERA) over 7 1/3 spring innings and potentially could’ve been considered not worthy of a 25-man spot.

Melancon’s back-to-back outings marked the first time he’d pitched in consecutive days this spring, as the veteran reliever continues his recovery from forearm surgery last September.  Needless to say, any further soreness is a red flag for both he and the team, though Bochy said that Melancon’s roster status wouldn’t be determined until after he tests his arm further by playing catch over the next day or two.  Melancon has been bothered by some arm fatigue throughout camp and pitched in just five games throughout Spring Training as the team tried to bring him along slowly.

The closer is trying to rebound after a disappointing and injury-marred first season in San Francisco that saw him post a 4.50 ERA over 30 innings.  If Melancon does go on the disabled list, the Giants could turn to setup men Hunter Strickland or Tony Watson for save situations, or potentially again use Sam Dyson as closer as they did in 2017.  Dyson, however, has struggled through a very rough spring.

It has already been a brutal spring health-wise for the Giants, with Madison Bumgarner (fractured finger) and Jeff Samardzija (strained pec) both going down with injuries that have badly stretched the team’s pitching depth.  GM Bobby Evans told Baggarly and other reporters that “I anticipate we will remain internal” in regards to finding replacements, though Evans is open to the idea of potentially adding new pitchers.

Mark Melancon To Undergo Surgery On Tuesday

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Giants reliever Mark Melancon is now scheduled to undergo surgery on his right forearm next Tuesday, per manager Bruce Bochy (via John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle; Twitter links).

The news comes as no surprise, as Melancon and the team have made clear in recent weeks that he’d have a procedure at some point in the coming weeks. The procedure will address chronic compartment syndrome in the pronator muscle, which has long been a problem for the veteran hurler but increasingly bothered him during the 2017 season.

Melancon is expected to be able to resume throwing in about six to eight weeks’ time. That ought to give him plenty of time to rehab and get ready for a full camp next spring.

While the overall outlook seems to be pretty promising, it’s obviously still disappointing for the season to wrap up this way. Melancon, 32, has turned in only thirty innings of 4.50 ERA pitching on the year, far shy of what San Francisco expected when it promised him $62MM over four years.

On the positive side, his key peripherals do not appear to have changed all that much from his recent work, so there is at least some cause to hope that Melancon can make good on the contract once he’s back to full health. The Giants, who face a variety of other needs, have little choice but to hope that he can rediscover his form in 2018.

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