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Marlins Sign Avisail Garcia

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TODAY: The Marlins officially announced the signing.  The contract details are provided by Jon Heyman, who notes that Miami’s 2026 club option is worth $12MM, with a $5MM buyout.  Garcia will earn an even $12MM in each of the 2022-25 seasons, and he will also donate $120K per year to the Marlins’ team charity.

NOVEMBER 28: The Marlins have agreed to a four-year contract with free agent Avisail Garcia, SportsGrid’s Craig Mish reports (via Twitter).  Garcia will earn $53MM, according to MLB Network’s Jon Heyman.  Garcia is represented by Mato Sports Management.

Mish notes that this is the largest contract the Marlins have handed out under owners Bruce Sherman and Derek Jeter, who purchased the team more than four years ago.  The Marlins are “far from done,” tweets Mish.  Garcia joins Jesus Sanchez in the Marlins’ outfield, after the club reportedly made a strong push to bring Starling Marte back before he signed with the Mets.  The Marlins continue to sit on perhaps the game’s best starting pitching surplus, suggesting GM Kim Ng may solve some of the team’s other needs on the trade market.

MLBTR had predicted a three-year, $36MM contract for Garcia, who managed to snag an extra year and a better average annual value.  Garcia’s contract is exactly double that of Mark Canha, who signed with the Mets two days ago at the same $13.25MM AAV.  Garcia, 31 in June, posted a fine 115 wRC+ in 135 games for the Brewers this year.  Garcia’s two-year, $20MM contract with the Brewers included a provision that converted a $12MM club option into a mutual one once he reached a certain plate appearance threshold in September.  That allowed Garcia to become a free agent.  Likely fearing acceptance, the budget-conscious Brewers elected not to make the one-year, $18.4MM qualifying offer.

Garcia has had an up-and-down career since signing with the Tigers for $200K as a 16-year-old out of Venezuela back in 2007.  The toolsy outfielder reached the Majors as a 21-year-old in 2012 and was traded to the White Sox the following year as part of a three-team deal that sent Jake Peavy to the Red Sox and Jose Iglesias to Detroit.  Garcia fell short of expectations in Chicago until a BABIP-driven 138 wRC+ in 2017.  After a down 2018 season that culminated in knee surgery, the White Sox chose not to tender Garcia a contract with a projected $8MM arbitration salary looming.

The Rays swooped in with a one-year, $3.5MM free agent contract for Garcia, who rode a 113 wRC+ in 2019 to the aforementioned two-year contract with Milwaukee.  It’s fair to question why, two years later, Garcia is coming off a similar season and managed to secure $33MM more than last time.  Interestingly, Marte was reportedly “seeking a three- or four-year deal in the $50 million range” back in July when the Marlins attempted to extend him, according to Jordan McPherson and Craig Mish in the Miami Herald.  The Marlins didn’t get there, trading Marte for Jesus Luzardo before attempting to sign him back last week.  It’s been an odd sequence of events for the Marlins, who ended up with Garcia for a similar price to what Marte might have cost.

The answer to Garcia’s appeal might lie in Statcast, where his top of the charts numbers have always hinted at something more.  This year, he ranked in the 73rd percentile for average exit velocity, 98th for maximum exit velocity, 78th for hard hit percentage, and 80th for barrel rate.  Garcia simply hits the ball very hard, even if this year’s 29 home runs represented a career best.  Garcia pairs his hard-hitting with 88th percentile sprint speed, so his is a rare blend of athleticism.  Defensively, Garcia has been a bit below average in Outs Above Average over the past few years.

We’ve seen a flurry of hot stove activity today with three days remaining until the collective bargaining agreement expires, with December 1st serving as a transaction deadline of sorts.  Today alone, we’ve seen free agent contracts for Marcus Semien, Corey Kluber, and Garcia, as well as an extension for Byron Buxton.  After the CBA expires, ownership is widely expected to lock out the players and freeze free agency, speculatively until the eve of spring training in February.  This has created an unprecedented urgency from teams in free agency, resulting in many November contracts that have exceeded expectations.

Padres Acquire Jorge Alfaro From Marlins

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The Padres announced the acquisition of catcher Jorge Alfaro from the Marlins in exchange for cash considerations or a player to be named later. Jon Morosi of MLB.com reported the Friars’ interest in Alfaro yesterday.

As Morosi pointed out, Alfaro was originally signed by the Rangers as an amateur out of Colombia back in 2010. Current San Diego president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was a high-ranking member of the Texas scouting department at that time. Alfaro becomes the latest in a line of one-time Rangers’ players or staff members Preller has struck to bring to San Diego.

Miami had supplanted Alfaro behind the plate yesterday, acquiring Jacob Stallings from the Pirates. While Alfaro had already looked like a non-tender candidate, the Stallings acquisition made it clear his time in Miami was likely over. General manager Kim Ng and her staff looked for a trade partner in advance of tonight’s non-tender deadline, and they found one in San Diego.

The right-handed hitting Alfaro has flashed an intriguing blend of power and arm strength at times, but his combination of huge strikeout totals and well below-average walk rates have yet kept him from settling in as an above-average regular. He’s coming off a season in which he hit .244/.283/.342 with four home runs across 311 plate appearances. Alfaro hit .244 despite a huge .354 batting average on balls in play because of a lofty 31.8% strikeout percentage.

Defensively, Alfaro has rated as an average or worse pitch framer over the past three seasons, per Statcast. He has done an excellent job controlling the running game, though, including an impressive 42.8% caught stealing rate in 2021. That aligns with scouts’ long evaluations of Alfaro’s arm strength as elite.

The Padres make for a curious fit on paper. San Diego already has a capable #1 catcher in Austin Nola, and Víctor Caratini is on hand as a serviceable back-up. Top prospect Luis Campusano, meanwhile, has already appeared in the majors and is coming off a strong season with Triple-A El Paso. The San Diego front office is clearly intrigued by Alfaro’s physical tools, though. They’ll add him to the organization on a projected $2.7MM salary and can control him through 2023.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid first reported the Padres were acquiring Alfaro. AJ Cassavell of MLB.com was first to report Miami would receive a player to be named later or cash.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Marlins Designate Lewis Brinson For Assignment

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The Marlins have designated outfielder Lewis Brinson for assignment, per a team announcement. His spot on the 40-man roster will go to infielder Joey Wendle, whose previously reported acquisition from the Rays has now been formally announced.

Brinson, 27, was the centerpiece of Miami’s return in the blockbuster trade that sent Christian Yelich to the Brewers. Brinson joined the Marlins organization alongside, infielder Isan Diaz, outfielder Monte Harrison and right-hander Jordan Yamamoto. At the time, it was a strong-looking return given that both Brinson and Diaz were regarded as high-end prospects, with Brinson in particular being vaunted as one of the game’s most promising all-around farmhands. As most fans are well aware, however, the deal didn’t pan out for the Fish.

There was always some risk to Brinson, a toolsy first-round pick of the Rangers back in 2012 who found his way to Milwaukee by way of another prominent trade (Jonathan Lucroy). Brinson made a brief MLB debut with the Brewers in 2017, tallying 55 plate appearances and struggling quite a bit as a 23-year-old getting his feet wet in the big leagues. That rough debut didn’t dim his prospect status much at all, but he never really made many strides in parts of four seasons with the Brewers.

From 2018-21, Brinson logged 1056 plate appearances in the big leagues but mustered only a .203/.248/.376 batting line with a 28% strikeout rate against just a 4.6% walk rate. He continues to rate as one of the fastest players in MLB, per Statcast’s average sprint speed, but Brinson doesn’t rate as a premium defender in the outfield by most publicly available metrics. He’s also seen his exit velocity and hard-hit rates drop since 2017-18, and this year’s penchant for popping the ball in the air was particularly concerning; 13 of Brinson’s 75 fly-balls were pop-ups.

Brinson is out of minor league options, so any team that acquires him will have to carry him on the MLB roster next season or else attempt to pass him through waivers before sending him to Triple-A.

Rays Trade Joey Wendle To Marlins

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A busy offseason for the Marlins continued Tuesday, as Miami has announced the acquisition of infielder Joey Wendle from the Rays in exchange for outfield prospect Kameron Misner.

Joey Wendle | Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Wendle, 31, gives the Marlins an option at any of second base, shortstop or third base both in 2022 and in 2023, as he’s controlled another two seasons via arbitration. The lefty-swinging Wendle provides quality defense at all three of those positions and will bring a largely contact-driven offensive approach to the plate for Miami. He’s spent the past four seasons with the Rays, hitting at a combined .274/.330/.414 clip — six percent better than the league average, by measure of wRC+ — with 25 home runs, 86 doubles, 14 triples and 40 stolen bases (in 55 tries) through just shy of 1500 plate appearances.

The Marlins, according to SportsGrid’s Craig Mish (Twitter link), plan to utilize Wendle as a super-utility player who’ll bounce between second, short, third and perhaps the outfield or first base. Jazz Chisholm and Miguel Rojas have second base and shortstop largely locked down (respectively), while Brian Anderson has been the team’s primary third baseman in recent years. Anderson, however, has been beset by shoulder troubles and spent considerable time on the injured list. He’s also capable of playing in the outfield corners, so it’s at least feasible he could move to the grass in order to accommodate Wendle at the hot corner at times. The advent of a designated hitter in the National League could also lead to some reps for Anderson (or Wendle) there.

The good news for Miami is that they don’t have to set anything in stone just yet. Adding Wendle unquestionably improves the roster but does so while creating enough agility for general manager Kim Ng and her staff to cast a wide net in their further offseason pursuits. The Marlins are still seeking a center field option but could also pivot to add a corner bat if there’s a chance for an opportunistic strike in left field or at third base.

Wendle’s addition is the latest in an increasingly active offseason for the Marlins, who in the past week have signed Avisail Garcia to a four-year contract, acquired catcher Jacob Stallings from the Pirates, and signed rotation leader Sandy Alcantara to a five-year contract extension with a team option for a sixth season.

On the other side of the deal, Tampa Bay has reportedly been exploring the trade market for Wendle in advance of tonight’s deadline to tender contracts to arbitration-eligible players. Wendle is projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4MM in 2022, and the Rays needed to open a spot on the roster to accommodate their recent one-year, $8MM agreement with veteran right-hander Corey Kluber. The Rays are also deep in terms of infield options; Brandon Lowe, Wander Franco, Yandy Diaz and prospects Taylor Walls and Vidal Brujan give them ample cover at second, third and short.

The addition of Misner, who’ll turn 24 in January, is nothing to scoff at from the Rays’ vantage point, either. The No. 35 overall draft pick back in 2019, Misner split the 2021 campaign betweenthe  Class-A Advanced and Double-A levels, hitting a combined .253/.355/.433 with a dozen homers, 29 doubles, three triples and 26 steals (in 30 tries).

Scouting reports on Misner tout the lefty hitter’s plus raw power, plus speed and solid defensive tools — which make for a tantalizing package were it not for a substandard hit tool. Misner fanned at a 29.4% clip in 462 of his minor league plate appearances this season, and while he offsets those punchouts (to an extent) with a stout 12.3% walk rate, more advanced pitchers will carry greater potential to expose holes in his swing.

The blend of power, speed and defense makes Misner a relatively high-upside name to add to an already deep stockpile of prospects. Misner ranked 10th among Marlins farmhands at FanGraphs, 15th on Baseball America’s midseason list and 21st on MLB.com’s midseason rankings. The fact that Misner briefly reached Double-A this past season at least opens the door for a potential MLB debut at some point in 2022, though it seems likelier that he’d make an impact in 2023 — assuming he continues to produce in the upper minors.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald first reported (via Twitter) that Wendle was headed to Miami. Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times reported that Misner was going back to Tampa Bay in return.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

Marlins Sign Sandy Alcantara To Contract Extension

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After months of back-and-forth, the Marlins and right-hander Sandy Alcantara have agreed upon a long-term deal. The team announced Tuesday they’ve signed the CAA Sports client to a five-year contract extension that also contains a club option covering the 2027 season. Alcantara will reportedly be guaranteed $56MM, including a $2MM buyout on the 2027 option valued at $21MM. He receives a $1.5MM signing bonus as part of the deal.

Sandy Alcantara | Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports

Alcantara, 26, has been in extension talks at least dating back to July, when reports of negotiations first surfaced. While the Marlins’ first overtures were said to be low enough that Alcantara’s camp considered them a nonstarter, a $55MM+ guarantee would be a record extension for a pitcher with between three and four years of Major League service time, topping the previous highwater mark set by Carlos Martinez in Feb. 2017 (five years, $51MM).

Acquired from the Cardinals alongside Zac Gallen in the 2017 trade that sent Marcell Ozuna to St. Louis, Alcantara has steadily improved over the course of his four seasons in Miami. He’s always been a hard-throwing sinker specialist, but his strikeout and walk rates early in his career were pedestrian, to say the least. Alcantara racked up 197 innings with the Fish in 2019, but he looked more like a potential innings-eater than a star at that point. Fast forward to 2021, however, and Alcantara looks more like a building block than that stable No. 4 starter he was in ’19.

This past season, Alcantara finished fourth in MLB with 205 2/3 innings thrown, averaged 98.1 mph on his heater and posted career-best marks in strikeout rate (24.0%), walk rate (6.0%) and ground-ball rate (55.3%). All three are vastly better than the league average, so it’s little surprise that Alcantara’s 3.19 ERA was largely supported by fielding-independent marks. This year’s 13.3% swinging-strike rate was easily a career-high, and Alcantara’s gaudy 36.7% opponents’ chase rate on pitches outside the strike zone ranked third among qualified starters. Alcantara also thrives when it comes to inducing weak contact and ranks above the league average in Statcast’s “expected” ERA, batting average, slugging percentage and wOBA.

Alcantara had been set for his first trip through the arbitration process this winter and was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $4.5MM. He’d have been arb-eligible twice more, securing a pair of additional raises in the process. The proposed deal would buy out two arbitration seasons and, depending on how bullishly one cares to project Alcantara’s would-be raises in years two and three of arbitration, places a value of around $14-15MM per season on those two free-agent campaigns. That, of course, still represents a bargain for Alcantara if he can replicate his 2021 breakout, but that type of tradeoff is commonplace for players signing extensions well before they’d otherwise reach the open market.

The $11MM annual value — a figure which, as with many extensions, is skewed by the arbitration seasons included in the deal — is significant for a typically low-payroll Marlins club. However, Miami doesn’t have a single guaranteed contract on the books after the 2023 season, and second-year GM Kim Ng has been vocal in her desire to spend more money this offseason. Much of that is expected to come via free agency, but locking up one of their current stars to keep him in the fold beyond his previously allotted team control certainly speaks to that increased financial wherewithal as well.

Miami has reportedly considered trading from its impressive collection of young starting pitchers as the organization eyes long-term options both in the outfield and behind the plate. That said, Alcantara would always have been one of the toughest Marlins starters to obtain — if not the toughest — and a five-year extension would further diminish the already slim chances of him being dealt. The Fish could still dangle any combination of Pablo Lopez, Elieser Hernandez and Jesus Luzardo, while near-MLB prospects like Max Meyer and Edward Cabrera (among many others) would surely carry very strong trade value. Injured youngsters like Sixto Sanchez (shoulder capsule surgery) and Jake Eder (Tommy John surgery) are appealing in their own right — health concerns notwithstanding.

With such a bounty of young arms, the Marlins obviously could have weathered the hit of trading Alcantara, but today’s extension instead likely portends a long-term rotation headed by Alcantara and 2021 NL Rookie of the Year runner-up Trevor Rogers. Who’ll fill the spots behind that dynamic pairing is dependent on how the offseason trade market unfolds, but the Fish are well-positioned to continue making strides thanks largely to that near-unparalleled collection of pitching talent.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid first reported the Marlins and Alcantara were both nearing agreement and had agreed upon on a five-year extension worth more than $56MM. Mish and Jordan McPherson of the Miami Herald reported the presence of a sixth-year club option valued at $21MM, as well as the $1.5MM signing bonus.

Photo courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

Marlins Attempting To Trade Jorge Alfaro

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The Marlins are hoping to find a trade partner for catcher Jorge Alfaro before tomorrow evening’s non-tender deadline, reports Craig Mish of SportsGrid (on Twitter). The Padres are among the teams expressing interest in the 28-year-old backstop, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (via Twitter).

That Alfaro is on the trade block is hardly a shock. He’s long been mentioned as a potential non-tender candidate, and Miami landed Jacob Stallings from the Pirates this afternoon to supplant him behind the dish. It’d register as a surprise if Alfaro were still on the Marlins’ roster 24 hours from now, as he seems likely to be non-tendered if not traded.

With Alfaro likely to otherwise be cut loose for nothing, it makes sense for general manager Kim Ng and her staff to see if they can bring back anything of value. The right-handed hitting backstop is a former top prospect who has flashed an intriguing blend of power and arm strength at times, but his combination of huge strikeout totals and well below-average walk rates have yet kept him from settling in as an above-average regular.

As Morosi notes, Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller was a key figure in the Rangers’ scouting department when Texas signed Alfaro as an amateur out of Colombia back in 2010. Preller has shown an affinity for bringing in former Rangers, but Alfaro would be a bit of a curious fit on paper. San Diego already has a capable #1 catcher in Austin Nola, and Víctor Caratini is on hand as a serviceable back-up. Top prospect Luis Campusano, meanwhile, has already appeared in the majors and is coming off a strong season with Triple-A El Paso.

Were the Padres or anyone else to swing a trade for Alfaro, they’d be able to control him through the end of 2023 via arbitration. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects him to bring in a 2022 salary in the $2.7MM range if tendered a contract.

Marlins Acquire Jacob Stallings From Pirates

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The Marlins have announced the acquisition of Gold Glove catcher Jacob Stallings from the Pirates. In exchange, Pittsburgh acquires righty Zach Thompson in addition to right-handed pitching prospect Kyle Nicolas and outfield prospect Connor Scott. Miami was connected to Stallings earlier this morning.

Jacob Stallings | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The 31-year-old Stallings (32 next month) will come to the Marlins with three years of club control remaining and give the Fish a standout defensive catcher to pair with their burgeoning young pitching staff. While his offensive numbers don’t stand out — Stallings has batted .251/.331/.374 with 17 homers, 32 doubles and a triple in 780 plate appearances dating back to 2019 — the 2021 Gold Glover is one of the best defensive players in the sport, regardless of position.

Over the past three seasons, Stallings has racked up 42 Defensive Runs Saved, including 21 DRS this past season. He notched an imposing 36.2% caught-stealing rate from 2019-20 and has a career 27% mark, though it’s worth noting that he slipped to 21% in that department this past season. Each of Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs and Statcast peg Stallings as an above-average pitch framer, and Prospectus credits his ability to block pitches in the dirt as plus as well.

Projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a $2.6MM salary in 2022, Stallings is highly affordable in terms of salary — and he can be controlled via arbitration through the 2024 season. For a low-payroll club that is building around what it hopes will emerge as a dominant young pitching staff, Stallings is a highly sensible addition. Sandy Alcantara, Trevor Rogers, Sixto Sanchez, Edward Cabrera, Elieser Hernandez, Max Meyer and others will all likely benefit from his framing and game-calling prowess.

Looking to the Pittsburgh’s return, they’ll add an immediate rotation piece (Thompson) in addition to a pair of promising young arms. The 28-year-old Thompson proved to be an outstanding pickup on a minor league deal last winter after the White Sox allowed him to become a free agent.

Thompson, a former fifth-rounder, gave the Marlins 75 innings of 3.24 ERA/3.69 FIP ball over the life of 26 appearances, including 14 starts. His 21% strikeout rate and 8.9% walk rate aren’t exactly dominant numbers, but Thompson thrived in terms of generating weak contact; his 87.6 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 76th percentile of MLB hurlers, while his 33.9% hard-hit rate checked into the 82nd percentile. The spin rate on his four-seamer is also in the 92nd percentile.

Zach Thompson | Quinn Harris-USA TODAY Sports

While Thompson won’t be mistaken for a top-of-the-rotation arm, he’ll give the Bucs six years of club control and won’t be eligible for arbitration until at least the 2023-24 offseason. (At 121 days of service in his debut season, he’ll be on the bubble of Super Two status, barring fundamental changes to the arbitration system in collective bargaining negotiations.) As it stands right now, Pittsburgh controls Thompson all the way through the 2027 season.

Nicolas, 22, was Miami’s second-round pick in the 2020 draft and ranked 23rd among their prospects on Baseball America’s midseason Top 30 list. He landed 16th at MLB.com and 18th among Miami farmhands on Eric Longenhagen’s rankings at FanGraphs. The Ball State product pitched to a combined 4.18 ERA through 99 innings of Class-A Advanced and Double-A ball this season, pitching more effectively at the more advanced of those two levels. Nicolas punched out 32% off his opponents this year, albeit with a somewhat bloated 11.5% walk rate. Miami has developed him as a starter to this point, but with a heater that reaches the upper 90s and a plus slider, it’s possible he’ll ultimately move to the bullpen.

Scott, meanwhile, was Miami’s first-round pick back in 2018. While he still landed in the middle tiers of the Miami system at both FanGraphs and MLB.com, Scott’s stock has dipped a bit since that lofty selection. (The lack of a minor league season in 2020 surely didn’t help his development.) Scott spent the 2021 season in Class-A Advanced, where he posted a solid .276/.333/.446 batting line with 10 homers and 14 steals, and reports on him suggest that he’s capable of playing a quality center field and hitting near the top of the lineup if things pan out. Scott only recently turned 22, and with a pretty good showing at Class-A Advanced under his belt, he could be ticketed for Double-A Altoona in 2022.

Pittsburgh doesn’t have an immediate heir-apparent to take the reins if Stallings, but the lack of an immediate successor in Pittsburgh served as little deterrent from jumping at what they surely view as a strong offer. The Pirates aren’t contending in 2022 anyhow, and the free-agent market has a number of veteran options who could be plugged in as a stopgap while the team waits on 2021 No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis to develop in the minors.

It’s a different story in Miami, where they’ve been on the hunt for a catcher for the better part of the past year. Miami has designs on stepping out of the NL East cellar and into playoff contention, and a move to both sharpen the team’s overall defense and help maximize the pitching staff is a strong step in that regard. Stallings won’t do much to bolster a lineup that was already lacking in power, but he’ll draw plenty of walks and provide the type of sage catcher that clubs often seek when building around young rotations.

Ken Rosenthal of the Athletic first reported the Marlins were nearing agreement on a deal to acquire Stallings. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network reported the Pirates were acquiring Thompson, Nicolas and Scott in return.

Photos courtesy of Imagn/USA Today Sports.

Nick Castellanos Reportedly Seeking Seven- Or Eight-Year Deal

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10:08am: The Phillies have had recent talks with Castellanos, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi. As he points out, Philadelphia president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was GM in Detroit when the Tigers selected Castellanos with the No. 44 overall draft pick.

7:36am: As a strong season for Nick Castellanos progressed in Cincinnati, it became increasingly obvious that the slugger would opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM on his contract in favor of a return to the free-agent market. Castellanos, however, is perhaps seeking an even larger payday than most would expect; MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand tweets that Castellanos and agent Scott Boras are eyeing a contract of seven or even eight years in length. MLB Network’s Jon Heyman tweeted this morning that the Marlins still have interest in Castellanos even after landing Avisail Garcia, though Feinsand suggests Castellanos’ asking price is too rich for Miami’s liking.

The 29-year-old Castellanos (30 in March) posted a huge .309/.362/.576 slash with 34 home runs, 38 doubles, a triple and three steals through 585 plate appearances this past season. Castellanos briefly missed time due to a microfracture in his wrist, but he shook off the rust almost immediately upon returning and closed out the year on a .294/.335/.606 heater through the final six weeks or so of play (176 plate appearances).

Excellent as Castellanos is and has been at the plate, seven and eight years are stills jarring numbers. Castellanos’ glovework has been consistently panned by defensive metrics — both at his original position (third base) and since moving to right field on a full-time basis in 2018. The 2021 season was no exception, as virtually any metric (-7 Defensive Runs Saved, -1.9 Ultimate Zone Rating, -7 Outs Above Average) framed Castellanos as a liability in right. He also rejected a qualifying offer from the Reds, meaning any team that signs him will be subject to draft-pick forfeiture.

To his credit, Castellanos is far from a one-year wonder — even if the 2021 season was his most productive to date. While a poor three-week finish in the shortened 2020 season tanked his season numbers, he still finished with league-average output, per both wRC+ and OPS+, and he’s been consistently strong at the dish outside that season. Both wRC+ and OPS+ suggest Castellanos has been about 22 percent better than the league-average hitter dating all the way back to 2016, and his bat truly soared to new heights upon being traded from the Tigers to Cubs. Even when including that average 2020 output, Castellanos carries a .292/.346/.571 batting line (134 wRC+) through 1052 plate appearances since leaving Detroit.

It’s commonplace for agents to aim for the moon in free agency, and while it can oftentimes burn a player, there are also deals of surprising magnitude each winter. (Few would’ve expected Marcus Semien to command a seven-year deal this winter, for instance.) It’d be a surprise to see Castellanos command such a weighty commitment, but he’s arguably the best bat available in free agency this offseason and would clearly benefit from the widely expected advent of the universal designated hitter.

Pirates’ Jacob Stallings Drawing Trade Interest

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Pirates catcher Jacob Stallings is generating trade interest from clubs seeking help behind the plate, tweets MLB Network’s Jon Heyman. He lists both the Marlins and Yankees as possible matches in a trade.

Stallings, 32 next month, won’t wow anyone with his offensive numbers but is widely regarded as one of the best defensive catchers in the sport — if not one of the best defenders at any position. Over the past three seasons, he’s posted a .251/.331/.374 batting line with 17 home runs, 32 doubles and a triple in 780 plate appearances. That’s about nine percent worse than the league-average hitter, by measure of wRC+, though it’s right in line with the leaguewide average for catchers, specifically.

It might be tempting to assume that Stallings’ on-base percentage has benefited from hitting eighth in front of Pirates pitchers, but that’s not necessarily the case. Stallings has spent a good chunk of time in the eight spot, but he’s spent more time hitting fifth, sixth and seventh in the Pittsburgh lineup and actually has better walk rates out of those slots than he does in the eight hole.

Where Stallings truly shines, however, is with the glove. He’s ranked as one of the game’s best defenders for the past few seasons and finally got his well-deserved credit in 2021 when he took home his first NL Gold Glove Award. Stallings posted a massive 21 Defensive Runs Saved mark in 2021 and has racked up an outstanding 42 DRS dating back to Opening Day 2019.

Stallings has consistently delivered plus framing marks according to each of Statcast, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus, and he draws perennially strong marks for his pitch-blocking skills at Baseball Prospectus as well. In terms of controlling the running game, Stallings had something of a down season in 2021 (21% caught-stealing), though the pitching staff surely shared some of the blame in that regard; Stallings had a huge 36.2% caught-stealing rate from 2019-20.

The other element of Stallings’ appeal is his affordable salary and remaining club control. Because he doesn’t pile up the counting stats that portend significant arbitration salaries, he’s projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn a highly reasonable $2.6MM in 2022. He’s controlled another two seasons beyond that, so any club to acquire Stallings would be bolstering its catching corps through the 2024 season.

Pittsburgh doesn’t have an immediate heir-apparent to take the reins if Stallings is dealt. Between that fact and the combination of his salary, club control and excellent defense, Stallings may have higher trade value than some would expect when glancing solely at his offensive numbers. That said, the lack of an immediate successor in Pittsburgh shouldn’t necessarily dissuade the Bucs from jumping if a strong offer is presented. The Pirates aren’t contending in 2022 anyhow, and the free-agent market has a number of veteran options who could be plugged in as a stopgap while the team waits on 2021 No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis to develop in the minors.

Marlins In Market For Outfielders Even After Garcia Deal

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The Marlins aren’t 24 hours removed from agreeing to a four-year, $53MM contract with free-agent outfielder Avisail Garcia, but MLB Network’s Jon Heyman reports they’re still seeking offensive upgrades (all Twitter links). Outfielders appear the priority, with Heyman listing Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Chris Taylor and Eddie Rosario among the possible targets.

Miami already guaranteed $53MM to Garcia over the next four seasons — a hefty splash by their typically modest standards. It’d be a surprise to see them follow that up by signing any of Castellanos, Schwarber or Taylor, as all three are expected to top that four-year deal landed by Garcia. Castellanos is reported to be seeking a contract of as many as seven or eight years in length, though it seems likely he’ll ultimately settle in a bit shy of that mark. Even still, there’s a good chance he’ll double the Garcia total.

Schwarber and Taylor, meanwhile, could both land larger four- or even five-year deals than Garcia signed. Schwarber parlayed a huge season between Washington and Boston into a strong free-agent stock, while Taylor has long been a steady super-utility piece for the Dodgers, He’d give Miami an option in center field for at least the first season or two of the deal — something they very much crave — and he’d give them some cover in the infield as well. That could be particularly appealing to Miami after the Marlins saw each of Miguel Rojas, Jazz Chisholm and Brian Anderson miss significant time in 2021.

Rosario, 30, seems like a more viable fit in Miami than the other names on the list — at least from a price perspective. The longtime Twins outfielder was non-tendered by Minnesota last winter, signed a one-year deal in Cleveland and found himself headed to the Braves in what amounted to a deadline salary dump. Rosario took off in Atlanta, however, returning from the injured list to slash .271/.330/.573 in his final 106 plate appearances. His heater continued into the postseason, where he won NLCS MVP honors. Even with a quiet World Series, Rosario still posted a massive .383/.456/.617 slash in 68 playoff plate appearances.

Streaky play of that nature has been the norm throughout Rosario’s career. In general, he’s a free-swinging left fielder with plenty of power but a low walk rates and dwindling defensive ratings. Dating back to the 2017 season, Rosario is a .278/.315/.484 hitter, but those numbers have tailed off in recent years. Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating still peg Rosario as a decent left fielder, but not the standout defender he was in 2018. Statcast’s Outs Above Average, however, graded Rosario harshly and ranked him worst among all MLB outfielders (-18).

Both Castellanos and Taylor rejected qualifying offers, meaning they’d cost the Marlins their third-highest pick in next year’s draft. Schwarber and Rosario were ineligible to receive qualifying offers by virtue of being traded midseason (though only Schwarber would’ve commanded one).

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