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Mike Rizzo

The Nationals’ “Bottom-Up” Analytics Strategy

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The Nationals are well known as one of MLB’s organizations still reliant on an old-school, if not yet antiquated scouting infrastructure. Much of this stems from GM Mike Rizzo, a former scout and scouting director himself. They are not, of course, blind to analytics, and as is the case with all front office these days, the way they blend traditional scouting with the use of analytics is what makes the footprint of their front office particular.

Their first-ever analyst hire, in fact, now serves as an assistant general manager. Sam Mondry-Cohen, a former bat boy, is a key figure in deploying the Nats “bottom-up” strategy to analytics, per Tyler Kepner of the New York Times. Mondry-Cohen and Rizzo stress the importance of clubhouse temperament to the utilization of their data, letting their players dictate to a large degree where and how data is utilized. The Nats organizational philosophy is more transparent than ever this season with mood-manager extraordinaire Davey Martinez helming a rambunctious veteran clubhouse that credits their on-field success to baby sharks, dugout dances, and group hugs.

The Nationals also credit themselves for mixing analytics with instinct in deploying a quick-strike offseason strategy that netted key players like Patrick Corbin, Yan Gomes, Brian Dozier and Kurt Suzuki last offseason. Bottomless sieves of data and a competitive landscape rich with intelligent front offices can make decision-making a slog, but the Nationals try not to dwell when instinct can kick-in. It’s served them well, as the Nationals have eight straight winning seasons and a new NL pennant banner to hang.

Once the World Series is finished, it will be interesting to see how this front office values their own free agents. The group includes obvious notables like Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon, but surprise elite contributors like Howie Kendrick and Daniel Hudson also enter the free market, as does the captain of their folk hero superteam: Gerardo Parra.

Diamondbacks Notes: Ex-Dbacks, Rizzo, Offense, Marte

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The Diamondbacks surprisingly hung around the Wild Card race until mid-September this season, despite shedding the faces of their franchise over the course of the six months previous. The postseason has been a who’s who of important Dbacks of the last half decade, as Patrick Corbin has taken out the rest of the Dbacks former talent core, starting with A.J. Pollock and the Dodgers and Paul Goldschmidt and the Cardinals. He’ll take his best shot at Zack Greinke and the Astros in game 3 of the World Series, aka the former Dbacks ace bowl. Of course, Mike Rizzo, the Nationals GM, is also an ex-Diamondback. He served as Arizona’s Scouting Director from 2000 to 2006. Let’s take a look at some Diamondbacks news from Rizzo’s era up to the present day…

  • It’s unsurprising to realize Rizzo repurposed the team-building blueprint from the 2001 Diamondbacks champs in putting together his team in Washington, per MASN’s Mark Zuckerman. Mainly, that means two aces up front and a host of veteran hitters capable of putting together veteran at-bats. All in all, it’s a pretty uncannily accurate casting job on the part of Rizzo. Max Scherzer is Randy Johnson, Stephen Strasburg is Curt Schilling, Patrick Corbin is an evolved Brian Anderson, Anibal Sanchez is Miguel Batista. Many of the vets also fit the mold: Howie Kendrick can play Mark Grace, Gerardo Parra as David Dellucci or Danny Bautista, Ryan Zimmerman as Matt Williams, Asdrubal Cabrera as Jay Bell, Adam Eaton as Reggie Sanders, Matt Adams as Greg Colbrunn and Kurt Suzuki is Damian Miller. In the bullpen, Fernando Rodney is definitely Mike Morgan, Sean Doolittle is Matt Mantei (I guess?), Daniel Hudson is (gulp) Byung-Hyun Kim. Okay, perhaps it’s not 1-1 all the way through, but those Diamondbacks did win the World Series after a 92-win season – after a 93-win season in Washington, Rizzo hopes to replicate his old team one last time.
  • Despite two recent aces facing off for different teams in the World Series, the Diamondbacks offseason focus is the offense, per Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic. The Dbacks put together a middle-of-the-pack offense in 2019, but the bats went away in an 11-game stretch in mid-September. They went 3-8 and pretty much fell out of race while scoring less than 2 1/2 runs per game. Those are the games that stick out for GM Mike Hazen, who will be on the lookout for ways to diversify their offense. Parsing the profile of the type of hitter Hazen may target is more difficult, as Arizona’s offense didn’t really stand out in any which way. They finished below-average in home runs, but not by a lot, above-average in men left on base and GIDP, but again, not by much. They were exactly league-average in batting average and on-base percentage, while their team slugging (.434 SLG) was below average by .001 SLG – as close to average as any team in the MLB.
  • As far as Ketel Marte is concerned, the Dbacks aren’t making a decision about his 2020 defensive home until they build out the rest of the roster. Second base could be where they look to improve offensively, in which case Marte will head back out to center. Essentially, the plan remains the same, with Hazen and the Dbacks set to take full advantage of the versatility Marte affords.

Rizzo On Trading Scherzer: Nats “Certainly Not Thinking About That Right Now”

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Even after a 15-5 rout of the Diamondbacks today, the Nationals’ record is just 33-38, leaving the club with a lot of ground to make up in the standings.  Washington is 8.5 games back of Atlanta in the NL East, and six games behind the Phillies for the last wild card slot, and barring a big turn-around in the coming weeks, speculation will only increase that the Nats could become sellers at the trade deadline.

Near-term free agents like Sean Doolittle, Howie Kendrick, and even star slugger Anthony Rendon have drawn a lot of the trade buzz, though the biggest move the Nationals could make is offering up ace Max Scherzer.  Such a trade doesn’t appear to be in the cards, however, as GM Mike Rizzo told The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal (subscription required) that “we’re certainly not thinking about that right now.”

“We control the best pitcher in baseball for 2 1/2 more years – three playoff runs,” Rizzo said.  “[Scherzer is] extremely well-priced. If you look at his contract, he’s extremely, extremely well-priced. We would have to command something that would be franchise-altering to consider moving him.”

Scherzer is officially owed $142.5MM through the end of the 2021 season, though $105MM of that sum will be paid out in deferrals from 2022-28.  As Rosenthal mentions, Washington could also include money in a hypothetical trade in order to lessen the $30MM annual luxury tax hit attached to Scherzer’s deal.

The inclusion of the “right now” qualifier in Rizzo’s statement perhaps leaves the door slightly open for a trade, though it probably leans closer to due diligence rather than any hint towards moving Scherzer.  After all, while Rizzo said the Nationals are still hoping for a midseason run, “you also have to be flexible and open-minded enough to know when you have to make changes and go in a different direction.”

Dealing Scherzer, however, would be the type of move that doesn’t only change “direction,” but perhaps sets a new course overall.  The Nats have yet to abandon the idea of contending even in 2019, let alone in 2020, and trading a front-of-the-rotation arm like Scherzer doesn’t seem like the type of deal a club looking to contend next season would make, regardless of the huge return such a deal would inevitably bring.  Trading a perennial Cy Young candidate and obtaining the type of win-now pieces necessary to reload for another crack at the NL East in 2020 would be an awfully difficult needle to thread, especially when simply keeping Scherzer is such an obvious boon to the rotation.

Between this factor and the personal ties between Rizzo and Scherzer, a trade seems unlikely at best.  “I’ve never been closer to a player in my career.  I drafted him in Arizona,” said Rizzo, who was formerly the Diamondbacks’ scouting director.  “I watched him grow up. We went hard after him (in free agency). We made him a promise that if you’re signing for seven years and you’re deferring all this money to help us win championships, we’re going to do everything we can to win.”

Rosenthal’s Latest: Greinke, Santana, Angels, Harper, Orioles, Machado

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The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal suggests teams in need of pitching should take a second look at Diamondbacks ace Zack Greinke. With Arizona set to lose Patrick Corbin and A.J. Pollock to free agency, the Dbacks are, unwittingly maybe, staring down a period of transition. The $34.8MM the 35-year-old Greinke is owed yearly might seem like a bitter pill to swallow, but there are ways of diverting a portion of that cost to make the contract palatable. The Rangers and Diamondbacks, for instance, reportedly discussed a Greinke deal last offseason wherein the Rangers would have offset the AAV by sending Shin-Soo Choo the other way. Another strategy to offset that cost is straight cash. However it’s done, getting Greinke’s AAV down to the range of $20MM to $25MM might make him an attractive, shorter-term alternative to a free agent like Dallas Keuchel on a five-year pact, given that Greinke is now essentially on a three-year deal. So long as he’s priced appropriately, the Diamondbacks could move him. Whether or not they should depends on the cost. Be sure to check out the entire article here (subscription link), but for now, here are more snippets from Rosenthal on high-priced veterans from around the league…

  • Unlike the Dbacks with Greinke, the Mariners are likely stuck with their veterans, given the sticker price of right-hander Felix Hernandez, third baseman Kyle Seager and Robinson Cano. In the context of the Greinke conversation, moving Cano almost seems plausible, as he’s only a year older than Greinke and owed almost $15MM less per season, but whereas Greinke isn’t much diminished from peak form, Cano is not long removed from an 80-game suspension, signed for two years longer and likely to move down the defensive hierarchy next season, from second base to either first or designated hitter.
  • Rosenthal quotes a rival executive who says the Phillies are “shopping the hell” out of first baseman Carlos Santana. If they could move off the two years and more than $35MM owed to Santana, the Phils would love to move Rhys Hoskins back to first, since he recorded an unsightly -24 DRS in left field last season. Adam Dunn is the only left fielder to record less defensive runs saved in a single season since 2003, when Sports Info Solutions introduced the data. For Santana’s part, he’s been decent defensively at first over the last few seasons with the Indians and Phillies, even managing 1 DRS in 119 innings at third for the Phils last year. Still, he’s probably more of an asset to an American League team where he could cycle in and out of the designated hitter slot.
  • The Angels, as well, are looking to shed salary in the form of Kole Calhoun or Blake Parker. Matt Shoemaker, after missing most of last season, is a non-tender candidate as well. The Angels are wary of dipping into their farm system to improve the major-league squad, as they’ve worked hard to rebuild their prospect pool. Still, they have a relatively desperate need for pitching and are, therefore, looking to shed salary where they can.
  • Rosenthal quotes an anonymous agent with an interesting take on the Bryce Harper saga in Washington. The agent theorizes that GM Mike Rizzo is largely extricating himself from the process moving forward, instead moving aggressively to fill the Nationals’ other needs and leaving ownership to make the final verdict on Harper. Of course, creating a better baseball situation in Washington surely won’t hurt in the pursuit of Harper either.
  • Also in Washington, the Nats could see a boost to their finances if their dispute with the Orioles over rights fees from the Mid-Atlantic Sports Network (MASN) is settled, as expected, by MLB’s internal arbitration panel. An appeals process could still be at hand, but baseball officials hope both teams will live with whatever verdict comes down from the Revenue Sharing Definition Committee, which consists of Brewers owner Mark Attanasio, Mariners CEO Kevin Mather and Toronto CEO Mark Shapiro. In dispute is over $200MM in rights fees from 2012 to 2016. If the hearing goes as expected, the Nats will see an influx of cash that should grant them future payroll flexibility. Before you ask – no, the matter will not likely be settled in time to aid in the wooing of Harper.
  • For the Orioles part in the above dispute, Rosenthal suggests it wouldn’t be a bad idea for the Orioles’ next front office hires to include someone in good standing with the MLB office. Along with the more explicit organizational issues, Baltimore has also apparently had a poor relationship with the league office as well. A portion of the discord stems from the above dispute with the Nationals over rights fees for the Orioles’ owned MASN, but there’s also suspicions that Camden Yards has somewhat unfairly been passed over for the All-Star game in recent years. Camden Yards was a forerunner for the way modern sports facility are built, but they have not hosted an All-Star game since its second year of existence in 1993. Other organizations have longer droughts in this regard, but the missed opportunity to honor the 25th anniversary of Camden Yards in 2017 still stings.
  • As for the free agent market’s other big fish, Rosenthal quotes the Athletic’s Jayson Stark who hears that the Yankees are doing more than their due diligence to get first-hand accounts of Manny Machado’s character. They likely won’t be disappointed by what they hear, as those close to Machado have nothing but good things to say, while recognizing the occasional on-field gaff.

NL East Notes: Mike Fast, Braves, Nationals,

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Analytics guru Mike Fast joined the Atlanta Braves organization this Wednesday, he announced via Twitter. Fast was formerly the director of research and development in Houston before leaving the organization in late September. The former semiconductor engineer will serve as a special assistant to GM Alex Anthopoulous, who has made it a priority to improve the Braves’ analytics department ever since his hiring in November of 2017, writes the Athletic’s David O’Brien. Per Anthopolous himself, Fast will be part of Atlanta’s senior leadership team, giving his input into all areas of baseball operations. Now, some other rumblings from around the NL East…

  • Right field and catcher clearly require the attention of the Braves’ front office this winter, where current free agents Kurt Suzuki and newly-minted Silver Slugger Nick Markakis have left holes, but improving the bench is not much further down their winter checklist, writes Gabriel Burns of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Versatile defender Charlie Culberson was a bright spot for the bench unit in 2018, but they could use a power bat to fill the spot once occupied by Matt Adams (and most recently by current free agent Lucas Duda). Outfielder Adam Duvall was acquired from the Reds last season in part to fill that role, but he struggled mightily in his 33 games as a Brave. Duvall projects to earn $3.1MM his first time through arbitration this winter, which makes him a likely non-tender candidate. He is a career .230/.291/.454 hitter. Still, while GM Alex Anthopoulos said they will be more “open-minded” about spending significant dollars on the bench this season, that’s not a development likely to happen early in the free agent season.
  • The Nationals do not see upgrading at second base as a priority this offseason, per Jesse Dougherty of the Washington Post. Earlier this week Dougherty tweeted that the Nats were comfortable going into next season with Howie Kendrick and Wilmer Difo manning the keystone. Still, it’s a bit surprising given Kendrick is coming off a ruptured achilles, and Difo hardly looked the part of a starter last season when he hit only .230/.298/.350 in 456 plate appearances. Interestingly, Rizzo cites the organization’s depth, specifically prospects Carter Kieboom and Luis Garcia as reasons for their optimism about the position moving forward. Rizzo’s comments are interesting because it means the Nationals are presumably comfortable keeping Trea Turner at shortstop for the foreseeable future. Further, Washington may view Kieboom and/or Garcia to be closer to the majors than it might otherwise appear. Garcia spent the 2018 season between Single-A Hagerstown and High-A Potomac, though he won’t even turn 19 until May. The 21-year-old Kieboom is the more likely of the two to make a surprise jump to the bigs (a la Juan Soto), as he played the final 62 games of 2018 at Double-A Harrisburg, hitting .262/.326/.395. The Nationals have, however, reportedly expressed some interest in Josh Harrison, though the former Pirates utilityman could back up multiple positions around the diamond.

Mike Rizzo Says Nationals Will Not Trade Bryce Harper

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Nationals president of baseball operations and GM Mike Rizzo has issued a strong statement about his intentions amid speculation that the club has considered trading star Bryce Harper. As Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports on Twitter, Rizzo says: “Bryce is not going anywhere. I believe in this team.”

It’s hardly surprising to see the Nationals land on this stance. After all, for all its struggles this year, the club remains within reasonable striking distance in both the NL East and the Wild Card races. While the club has several high-end players, moreover, Harper remains the most visible member of the organization.

On the other hand, the 25-year-old Harper is heading to free agency at season’s end. If the Nats aren’t going anywhere, they’d surely love to recoup some value for Harper, who’s also still playing on a hefty $21,625,000 salary this year. A qualifying offer seems sure to bring back some draft compensation, unless Harper elects to return to D.C., but that surely won’t be as useful as the potential prospect return in a trade.

To be sure, though, Harper’s value as a rental asset isn’t as great as his name recognition. He has not looked himself for much of the season, with mortal (but still good) offensive numbers and putrid grades for his glovework in the outfield. His salary is a factor, too. Surely, the potential return for Harper weighed into the Nationals’ decisionmaking, though it’s unclear whether that was the major driving force.

While this news seems to take away any realistic possibility of a surprising deal coming together today on Harper, it doesn’t necessarily strip the Nationals of trade deadline intrigue. Notably, however, the Nationals organization is sending signals that it will not move its high-priced relief arms, per Bob Nightengale of USA Today (via Twitter). But the organization employs several other expensive pending free agents as well, including one veteran starter who just popped up in a rumor.

Of course, there’s also still at least some potential for the club to consider repositioning or even buy-side moves, particularly if it would mean adding a controllable player who’d make an impact now and in the future. If the team ends up moving a starter, in fact it could conceivably do so in order to facilitate the addition of a different arm. As things stand, there still seem to be loads of possibilities.

Nationals Preparing For Possibility Of Selling At Deadline

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The Nationals are engaging in discussions with rival organizations regarding the possibility of moving several veteran players, according to Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports (Twitter links). Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic hears similarly, writing in a subscription post that ownership is increasingly inclined to cut its losses (including the financial ones) to the extent possible.

Notably, the Nats have not yet committed to any particular direction at the deadline. But they appear to be getting the process started in case they decide to move rental pieces. According to the report, the D.C. organization has indicated it will set its course by the end of the weekend — at which point we’ll be just two days away from the trade deadline.

While the Nats are one game under .500, there is still a glimmer of hope. Neither of the two leading teams in the division — the Phillies and Braves — have run away with things, or (to this point) made any significant deadline improvements. Projections still tend to see it as a closer race, as they presume the Nationals will receive enhanced production from some key players down the stretch.

Of course, the long-awaited spark has yet to occur for the Nats. And the team just received another gut punch today with the news that Stephen Strasburg is headed back to the DL. It doesn’t help that the Wild Card race includes quite a few contestants, meaning it isn’t an obviously better path into the postseason.

It would certainly be difficult for the Nationals to give up on the current season — and not just because that’d be a bitter pill to swallow for a club that entered the season as a clear division favorite that hoped finally to advance through the postseason. The team would also face a less-than-clear situation in deciding what assets to move.

Passan suggests that the focus would likely be on rental relievers. Ryan Madson ($7.5MM salary), Kelvin Herrera ($7.9375MM), and Shawn Kelley ($5.5MM) are all potential chips who’d be of interest to other organizations, perhaps bringing back some prospects and trimming some salary obligations. But whether it makes sense to stop there would make for a tough question.

For his part, Rosenthal says expressly what Passan more or less implies: the Nats aren’t much interested in moving star outfielder Bryce Harper even if they part with other pieces. President of baseball operations/GM Mike Rizzo has indicated that a move on Harper would only be considered in an “extreme” scenario, though presumably that’s much the same situation that would justify the parting with relief assets.

Bidding adieu to Harper now might be difficult, but it’d also be the best possible way for the club to begin a new era without him on good footing. Of course, if the Nats intend to make a full run at bringing him back from the open market, they may well prefer not to set him free now. And it’s also fair to wonder whether the return will be all that great given Harper’s struggles and hefty ($21.625MM) salary.

Harper really isn’t the only established non-reliever who could conceivably be viewed as a trade chip if things head in that direction. For instance, starter Gio Gonzalez and infielder Daniel Murphy are also slated to reach free agency at season’s end, though certainly neither is in top form. Slugger Matt Adams has been excellent and would seem to be an interesting target for some clubs, particularly those in the American League. Other players are nearing the end of their arb years, though there’s no indication at all that the club is thinking of blowing up its near-future core.

All told, it’s clearly an undesirable situation for the Nationals organization. Perhaps the club won’t need to face these difficult questions if it can reel off a few wins in quick succession and its division rivals stumble a bit. Even if the Nats give up on the present season, they hold the promise of bouncing back next year. But it now seems realistic that the team could end up largely giving up on the race in 2018, an outcome that was hard to imagine at the start of the campaign.

Nationals Extend Mike Rizzo Through 2020

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10:39am: Rizzo will earn $4MM in each of the two years of the contract, Janes tweets.

9:42am: While salary terms remain unknown, Rizzo intimated that — much like some recent free-agent players — he was able to achieve an appealing salary despite settling for a shorter commitment. “The years are important to me, but the AAV of the deal is right where I wanted it to be,”on Twitter said Rizzo (via Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com, ).

7:26am: The Nationals have agreed to a new contract with president of baseball operations and GM Mike Rizzo, as the club announced and Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post reports. Rizzo’s contract will now run through 2020.

Rizzo, who took over the organization’s baseball operations department in advance of the 2009 season, had been working on a deal that expired at the end of the current campaign. Though both he and the club’s ownership had expressed confidence that a new arrangement would be reached, it took somewhat longer than expected — and, perhaps, will not be for as lengthy a term as might have been anticipated. (Salary terms are not yet known.)

Compared to his peers, the 57-year-old Rizzo will continue to operate with relatively little job security. Numerous other top operations officials with similarly impressive track records have achieved much lengthier terms on their most recent contracts. Most recently, Pirates GM Neal Huntington signed on for another four campaigns while Yankees GM Brian Cashman secured a five-year deal that’s reportedly worth more than $25MM.

Of course, the lack of long-term arrangements has not prevented Rizzo from securing a long run at the helm in D.C. already. As Janes notes, he has run the baseball ops department for longer than all but four of his peers. Rizzo originally joined the Nationals as an assistant GM after running the Diamondbacks’ scouting department.

It also does not seem to bother Rizzo. In an appearance today with 106.7 The Fan’s The Sports Junkies, via Janes on Twitter, Rizzo cited his longstanding relationship with an ownership group that is led by the Lerner family. “The trust level I’ve built up with the Lerners has been great,” he said. “There’ s a bond between us [that] I think is stronger than anything else.”

There have obviously been some disappointments for the Nationals, who have somehow not yet managed to advance past the divisional round of the postseason in four recent attempts. But it’s difficult to lay those failures — which have come in one tightly-contested series after the next — entirely at the feet of the front office. After all, Rizzo has consistently put competitive rosters on the field over a tenure that has otherwise been a resounding success.

In the first season following Rizzo’s ascension to the GM seat — initially, on an interim basis — the club won just 59 games, matching its ugly total from the prior campaign. But the Nats added ten and then eleven wins in each of the next two seasons, setting the stage for a breakout 2012 unit.

Nationals fans will not soon forget that season, when the Nationals shocked the baseball world by posting 98 wins and claiming their first NL East crown and postseason berth. The core of the team was developed from within, with major contributions from then-recent top draft picks Stephen Strasburg and Bryce Harper.

While there were hiccups along the way — specifically, second-place finishes in 2013 and 2015, the latter in humiliating fashion — the Nats have been perennial contenders ever since, winning more total games than any team but the Dodgers. A payroll that now ranks among the highest in the game has certainly helped, but Rizzo’s shrewd dealings have kept the roster stocked with high-end talent.

As with any executive, Rizzo has had his hits and misses. The regrettable but unforgettable acquisition of Jonathan Papelbon certainly rates among the most notable in the latter category. Foibles with managers are by now a worn joke with regard to the Nationals, though perhaps only Rizzo’s hand-picked hiring of Matt Williams is his responsibility moreso than ownership’s. Many would rate the decision to shut down Strasburg in 2012 as a blemish, though the critics have always seemed to ignore that the organization had arrived at its decision before the start of the season and declined to waver from it, despite obvious temptation, to protect a young player who had shown signs of wearing down.

By and large, though he has been remarkably successful at structuring trades and overseeing a drafting and development effort that has consistently produced quality young players. To be sure, Strasburg and Harper largely fell into the Nats’ lap, both carrying unquestionable 1-1 talent in the drafts where the club was choosing first. But Rizzo also scored value in later drafts — especially in nabbing Anthony Rendon in 2011. Over the years, Rizzo brought in key contributors such as Wilson Ramos, Tanner Roark, Felipe Rivero, and Trea Turner in high-value trades.

Even as the Nationals face a future that may not include Harper, they seems primed to continue competing with a core group that could soon include Victor Robles, Juan Soto, and Carter Kieboom. Accomplishing that transition — or, instead, finding a way to keep Harper around without crippling the team’s ability to spend on other talent — may be the biggest challenge yet for Rizzo.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Quick Hits: Extensions, Rizzo, Cardinals, Kelly

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The winter’s unusually slow free agent market has led to a number of major signings in March, though the 2017-18 offseason hardly has a monopoly on late signings.  It was on this day in 1981 that Carlton Fisk signed a five-year, $2.9MM deal to join the White Sox, concluding a very unusual (and unexpected) trip through the free agent process for the star catcher.  Fisk’s deal with the Red Sox was up after the 1980 season but, under baseball’s rules at the time, he was still under Boston’s control as long as the team mailed him a new contract by December 20, 1980.  Red Sox GM Haywood Sullivan, however, mailed contracts to both Fisk and Fred Lynn a day late, leading to arbitration hearings that eventually resulted in Lynn being dealt to the Angels and Fisk being declared a free agent.  Fisk went on to spend the next 13 seasons in Chicago, further adding to a resume that eventually led to enshrinement in the Hall of Fame.

Some notes from around the sport as we head into the new week…

  • Could the lack of free agent activity lead to more young players accepting early-career extensions?  ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (subscription required) wonders if this could be the case, as “cautionary tales are swirling throughout baseball right now” as players and agents wonder if this offseason could be a harbinger of future free agent droughts.  Players with more limited or one-dimensional skillsets, for instance, might jump at taking a guaranteed deal early rather than risk facing a cold market once they hit free agency.  In the words of one agent, “The lesson to be learned is that for a lot of players, if you get offered a fair deal when you’re young, you should take it — to make sure you get paid. Then, if you get to free agency later, that can be the bonus on top.”
  • Mike Rizzo has built the Nationals into a contender and wants to remain as the team’s general manager, so the Washington Post’s Thomas Boswell isn’t sure why ownership doesn’t seem to be in a rush to extend Rizzo’s contract.  Rizzo is entering the last year of his deal, and though he said last month that he was “confident” a new agreement would be settled, there hasn’t been any news on that front in the interim.  Boswell wonders if the Lerner family has held off on an extension since they could be considering letting Rizzo leave if the team again falls short in the postseason — if this isn’t the case, however, it makes little sense to put Rizzo and the franchise itself through an awkward lame-duck period.
  • The Cardinals optioned catching prospect Carson Kelly to Triple-A today, seemingly solidifying Francisco Pena’s spot as Yadier Molina’s backup.  Pena was a non-roster invite to the Cards’ spring camp, and though neither Pena or Kelly hit much, the team would prefer to see Kelly continue his development with regular playing time in the minors rather than spending most of his days on the Cardinals’ bench.  “[Kelly] needs to play,” Cardinals manager Mike Matheny told MLB.com’s Joe Trezza and other reporters. “He’s still too young with too high of a ceiling not to go and be ready. If something happens, we need him to step in and be our guy. There are not going to be a whole lot of repetitions to get here.”  As Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch notes, Pena’s defense has helped his case in a camp that also saw catchers Steven Baron and Andrew Knizner impress the team.

Mike Rizzo Says He Is “Confident” He Will Reach New Deal With Nationals

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Nationals president of baseball operations and general manager Mike Rizzo addressed his contract situation today. As Jorge Castillo of the Washington Post reports, the veteran executive gave the clearest indication yet that he anticipates remaining in his position beyond the present season.

“I’ve had a couple conversations with ownership about my contract,” said Rizzo, who noted that an agreement has yet to be struck. “I’ve been here for 12 years. With the trust that we’ve developed over the years, I feel confident that we should get something done.”

Rizzo is entering the final year of the deal he signed with the team in the middle of the 2013 season. He has been with the organization since 2006 and has sat atop the baseball ops hierarchy since 2009.

It is difficult to argue with Rizzo’s track record. The rosters he has constructed have taken four of the past six NL East titles. Of course, the Nats also have lost all four ensuing divisional series in heartbreaking fashion. Those postseason disappointments have helped to create quite some churn in the field manager role, but Rizzo has remained a constant — and with good reason, given his track record of engineering a sustained winner.

While it has long seemed from the outside that Rizzo enjoys the trust of the organization’s ownership, led by the Lerner family, his future had seemed less certain than ever during the current offseason. When asked about his contract status in November, Rizzo said he had yet to discuss it and would not be the one to broach the subject.

Rizzo’s most recent comments, though, clearly paint a different picture as camp gets underway. The notoriously tight-lipped executive, who has always negotiated his own contracts, not only made clear that he had been engaged in discussions but strongly suggested that a new deal ought to be anticipated.

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