Orioles, Brewers, Discussing Jonathan Schoop
2:54pm: Talks between the O’s and Brewers are “very serious,” per ESPN’s Buster Olney. Rosenthal tweets that the two sides are close to a deal.
2:40pm: In addition to an agreed-upon trade sending Gausman to the Braves, the Orioles are discussing Schoop with the Brewers, tweets Rosenthal.
2:16pm: The Braves have been in contact with the Orioles regarding Gausman, tweets Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic. Heyman tweets that Atlanta has been “working hard” to add a controllable starter.
1:49pm: Eduardo A. Encina of the Baltimore Sun reports that the Orioles are discussing a trade of second baseman Jonathan Schoop and, potentially, Gausman (Twitter link).
1:40pm: Dan Connolly of The Athletic tweets that the Orioles and the other team involved in the deal are reviewing medical reports. Jones is not being traded in the deal, he adds.
1:28pm: Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that teams are “getting serious” with their offers on Gausman. He lists the Rockies, Braves and Brewers as teams in the mix. Crasnick tweets, meanwhile, that the Pirates are “out” on Gausman.
1:10pm: The Orioles are “closing in” on yet another deal with just under two hours until the non-waiver trade deadline, tweets ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick.
It’s not clear from the report who’ll be changing hands, though the O’s have already moved their biggest rental chips in the form of Manny Machado, Zach Britton and Brad Brach. Adam Jones reportedly isn’t interested in waiving his 10-and-5 rights to approve a deal, which makes it tough to envision that he’s changing hands here.
Meanwhile, previous reports have suggested that the Orioles have not yet had their asking prices met on more controllable pieces like Kevin Gausman, Dylan Bundy or Mychal Givens. Speculating a bit, though, veteran infielder/outfielder Danny Valencia would be one rental piece that the O’s could conceivably deal to a contender in need of a righty bat off the bench.
Nationals Willing To Discuss Gio Gonzalez, Jeremy Hellickson
The Brewers are “pursuing” veteran Nationals lefty Gio Gonzalez, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter). While the Nats have pulled back their relief arms, they are willing to consider scenarios involving Gonzalez or Jeremy Hellickson, per ESPN.com’s Buster Olney (Twitter link).
It’s an interesting situation for both ballclubs. The Milwaukee outfit is obviously turning over all stones to get a rotation upgrade, as Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. And the Nationals still appear to be dangling some veterans even after deciding not to move Bryce Harper.
It’s not immediately clear why the D.C. organization is willing to listen on those two hurlers. The team doesn’t seem to have replacement rotation pieces lined up. While Gonzalez is expensive ($12MM salary), Hellickson is quite affordable ($2MM base salary with up to $4MM in incentives), so they aren’t quite on equal footing as rental pieces. Perhaps it’s conceivable that the club is angling to add a different starter, though we’ve seen no particular recent rumors to that effect.
Rays Ask For Final Offers On Chris Archer
12:15pm: The Dodgers are also still “in play,” Jim Bowden of The Athletic tweets.
6:09pm: Despite some prior indications to the contrary, the Yankees remain involved in Archer’s market, per Andy Martino of SNY.tv (via Twitter). There are five additional clubs still involved as well, MLB.com’s Jon Morosi reports: the Padres, Braves, Brewers, and two unnamed organizations.
5:24pm: The Rays have asked interested teams to make their best and final offers for right-hander Chris Archer, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. Tampa Bay has been in touch with roughly a dozen teams about Archer and could spend tonight and tomorrow morning reviewing those offers before ultimately making a call on whether to deal Archer.
It should be noted that it’s far from a certainty that Archer is dealt at all. There’s a mix in the tone of reports surrounding the possibility of an Archer trade that is likely reflective of the lack of an industry consensus on whether he’ll actually be traded. For instance, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that there’s a stronger sense than ever before that Archer will finally move, as the Rays are cognizant that he’s approaching his 30th birthday and this may be their final chance to get an enormous haul for him.
On the flipside, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale spoke to one executive familiar with the market who took an “I’ll believe it when I see it” approach (Twitter link). ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, meanwhile, spoke to an exec who said he still feels Tampa Bay will need to be “overwhelmed” and, despite years of rumors, still “[doesn’t] see it happening.”
The full slate of teams who have submitted (or plan on submitting) an offer for Archer isn’t yet known. Over the weekend, the Braves, Dodgers, Yankees and Cardinals were all connected rather prominently to Archer, though Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweeted today that the Yankees are viewed as an “unlikely” fit for Archer. Sherman added earlier today that the Pirates have jumped into the mix as well, while the Brewers and the Athletics have both at least touched base.
The Padres, meanwhile, have been rumored to be the most aggressive pursuing Archer, envisioning him as a rotation fixture in 2019 and beyond as San Diego emerges from its rebuild and aims to contend. Yahoo’s Jeff Passan wrote today that San Diego has been “especially engaged” in the Archer market, though he notes that the Friars have not yet been willing to meet Tampa Bay’s lofty asking price. Topkin wrote yesterday that a young catcher and controllable power-hitting outfielder would be “a good start” to a package from the Rays’ vantage point, though Tampa Bay will obviously be seeking numerous young pieces in return for three-plus years of the right-hander.
Archer, 29, obviously remains a popular trade target despite a month-long stint on the disabled list and some bottom-line results that haven’t lined up with his peripheral stats in recent seasons. That’s once again the case in 2018, as Archer is sitting on a 4.31 ERA despite possessing a 3.62 FIP and xFIP as well as a 3.75 SIERA. He’s averaged a strong 9.6 K/9 against 2.9 BB/9 with Tampa Bay this season and has made moderate gains in terms of swinging-strike rate (13.6 percent) and chase rate (32.3 percent). Archer is allowing just one homer per nine innings after struggling with the long ball in recent seasons, and he’s also boosted his ground-ball rate nearly three percent, from 42.0 up to 44.7.
Of course, the big draw with Archer is the affordability of his contract. He’s owed $2.o8MM through the end of the current season and is guaranteed just $7.5MM in 2019 before the Rays (or an acquiring team) have club options valued at $9MM and $11MM for the 2020 and 2021 seasons. In all, Archer can be controlled through 2021 for as little as $29.58MM, and in the event of a significant injury, he can be cut loose after 2019 and owed only a total of $11.33MM through the end of 2019.
Deadline Chatter: Beltre, Outfielders, Starters, Bucs/Friars, Romo
Here are the latest rumors from around the game on the eve of the non-waiver trade deadline:
- The Red Sox and Braves have each at least held talks with the Rangers on third baseman Adrian Beltre, per Evan Drellich of NBC Sports Boston and Morosi. It’s not at all clear, though, that either club is going to push hard enough to get Texas to move the veteran. Indeed, talks with Atlanta may already have sputtered, MLB.com’s TR Sullivan tweets. He adds that there is some indication the Red Sox aren’t actually all that inclined to go after Beltre, so much as the future Hall of Famer likes the idea of going back to Boston, and Rob Bradford of WEEI.com hears there’s not much of a connection between the clubs (Twitter link). In addition to other hurdles, Beltre’s no-trade rights present an obstacle. ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick notes on Twitter that Beltre may not wish to go somewhere if he isn’t going to receive regular playing time. In any event, to this point, Beltre has not been presented with any possible trades to consider, Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets.
- When it comes to rental outfielders, there aren’t a huge number of appealing options. But there are certainly some veterans drawing interest. The Yankees and Phillies have put out feelers on Curtis Granderson of the Blue Jays, per Morosi (Twitter link). Granderson isn’t the only notable name on the Phils’ radar, as Heyman connects the organization to the Mets and Jose Bautista, via Twitter. Meanwhile, the Marlins are still dangling outfielder Cameron Maybin, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (via Twitter). Among the clubs that are at least considering him are the Indians, Yankees, and Mariners.
- Some of the most interesting potential trade candidates, of course, won’t end up going anywhere. Indications are that some top hurlers will stay at home. It does not appear that any rivals have made a real push to force the Mets to part with righty Jacob deGrom, per Jon Heyman of Fancred (on Twitter). Despite “some late action” on Noah Syndergaard, Andy Martino of SNY.tv tweets, it still seems there’s nothing brewing there. Meanwhile, the Orioles don’t appear to have been enthused with trade offers for top pitchers Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy (or their other controllable players), Heyman indicates in a tweet.
- The Pirates and Padres appear to have quite a lot to talk about, as Ken Rosenthal and Rob Biertempfel of The Athletic report (in a tweet) that the Pittsburgh organization has “aggressively pursued” pitching from San Diego. It’s not evident which hurler the Bucs are eyeing, though Rosenthal suggests that veteran Craig Stammen could be a sensible target. Stammen and Kirby Yates appear to be the likeliest remaining trade chips in the Padres’ pen, owing to their quality output and relatively short remaining control rights (one year and two years, respectively).
- While the present focus is on another member of the Rays pitching staff, reliever Sergio Romo is drawing quite a lot of looks, per Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter). Romo is affordable ($2.5MM salary), battle-tested in October, and still capable of getting outs in the majors at 35 years of age. Romo’s swinging-strike rate is down to 12.6%, his lowest since 2009, but he’s carrying a 3.69 ERA through 46 1/3 innings on the season.
- If you’re looking for more reading, check out the latest column from Jerry Crasnick of ESPN.com. He runs through a variety of situations, including the Giants‘ in-between position, the Twins‘ struggles to market Brian Dozier, and more. Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports also has quite a bit of chatter in his latest column, some of which we’ve already highlighted on the site. Among other items of interest, Passan checks in on the Brewers‘ efforts to find a starter, suggesting they are a prime suitor for Zach Wheeler of the Mets.
NL Central Rumors: Cubs, Tepera, Yates, Harvey, Duvall, Iglesias, Brewers
The Cubs are among the slew of teams continuing to monitor the market for bullpen upgrades, and they’ve “closely” scouted Blue Jays right-hander Ryan Tepera and Padres righty Kirby Yates, per Bruce Levine of CBS Chicago/670 The Score. Both relievers figure to come with a relatively high cost of acquisition, as Yates is controlled through the 2020 season, while Tepera is controlled all the way through 2021. Each is in the midst of a fine season, though Yates has been among the NL’s best relievers thanks largely to a newly adopted splitter that has been a wipeout offering in 2018. Tepera is sitting on a 3.71 ERA with nearly 10 strikeouts per nine innings pitched in a tough AL East (and a tough home park, Toronto’s Rogers Centre). Both players are plenty affordable, with Tepera not yet eligible for arbitration until this offseason and Yates earning just $1.0625MM in his first trip through the arb process last winter.
Also on the Cubs front, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that while it should be considered a “long shot,” the Cubs can’t be ruled out as a candidate to add a controllable starting pitcher. Doing so would likely mean building a package around young infielder/outfielder Ian Happ, controlled through the 2023 season, or a similarly enticing young hitter. Happ, 24 in two weeks, has displayed plenty of promise this year with a .253/.375/.445 slash, but while he walks at an impressive 16.1 percent clip, he’s also punched out in more than 35 percent of his plate appearances.
Here’s more out of the division…
- The Reds haven’t gotten that much traction in their trade talks surrounding Matt Harvey, tweets Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman adds that the team feels Harvey has been a model teammate and may just hang onto him if no suitable offers crop up, though he also notes that that line of thinking could be mere posturing on the Reds’ behalf. Fancred’s Jon Heyman, meanwhile, tweets that outfielder Adam Duvall‘s name continues to bounce around the rumor circuit, calling him and Harvey the two likeliest Reds to move. Heyman notes that the Reds would need to be “blown away” to move closer Raisel Iglesias, which largely lines up with previous reports that the Reds believe they can be significantly more competitive in 2019 despite a dearth of quality starting pitching.
- The Brewers are still in the market for upgrades after acquiring both Joakim Soria and Mike Moustakas, tweets Rosenthal. Specifically, Milwaukee is continuing to explore the market for a starting pitching upgrade and the market for some help behind the plate. The Brewers have recently been linked to the likes of Zack Wheeler and Chris Archer, though the market offers myriad opportunities to add an arm to the staff. There’s a more limited supply of available catchers, though Marlins star J.T. Realmuto, injured Rays backstop Wilson Ramos and Mets rental Devin Mesoraco are all candidates to change teams between now and the non-waiver deadline, which is roughly 24 hours away.
NL Notes: Mesoraco, Cubs, Bucs, Nats, Brewers
There’s not much “momentum” on a trade involving Mets catcher Devin Mesoraco, Mike Puma of the New York Post tweets, though he notes that a deal still may come together by the non-waiver deadline on Tuesday. Mesoraco has already been part of one trade this year, as he joined the Mets in May in a deal for now-Reds righty Matt Harvey. The 30-year-old Mesoraco has batted .230/.206/.393 with eight home runs in 219 plate appearances and caught 26 percent of would-be base stealers this season. He’ll be a free agent in the offseason.
More from the National League…
- Cubs right-hander Tyler Chatwood is headed to the team’s bullpen to make room for just-acquired starter Cole Hamels, Jesse Rogers of ESPN.com was among those to report. Chatwood joined the Cubs on a three-year, $38MM contract last winter, but the deal hasn’t worked out as planned for the club. Prior to his demotion to a relief role, Chatwood walked a ridiculous 8.14 batters per nine innings across 94 frames (19 starts) and pitched to a 4.98 ERA/5.57 FIP.
- The Pirates placed outfielder Corey Dickerson (left hamstring strain) and first baseman Josh Bell (left oblique strain) on the 1o-day disabled list Saturday, per Jerry DiPaola of the Pittsburgh-Tribune Review. The club recalled outfielder Austin Meadows and first baseman Jose Osuna from Triple-A to take their places. If not for Pittsburgh’s recent hot streak, it may have been in position to sell Dickerson prior to the deadline. The 29-year-old, who’s on a $5.95MM salary in 2o18 and has one arbitration-eligible season left, has batted a terrific .318/.351/.517 with 11 home runs in 367 plate appearances.
- The Nationals reinstated outfield prospect Victor Robles from the disabled list Friday and activated him at the Triple-A level, according to Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. The 21-year-old Robles has missed nearly all of this season after suffering an elbow injury early in the spring. He continues to rank as one of the majors’ premier prospects, though, as evidenced by Baseball America grading him as the game’s sixth-best farmhand in its most recent top-100 list.
- Brewers first base prospect Jake Gatewood will undergo season-ending surgery after suffering a torn left ACL, Adam McCalvy of MLB.com tweets. The 22-year-old Gatewood, Milwaukee’s 14th-best prospect at MLB Pipeline, hit .244/.302/.466 with 19 home runs in 388 PAs at the Double-A level this season.
Brewers Acquire Mike Moustakas
The Brewers have lined up with the Royals on a deal that will bring third baseman Mike Moustakas to Milwaukee, as MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan first reported (via Twitter). Outfielder Brett Phillips and righty Jorge Lopez are going to Kansas City in return.
This appears to be a fascinating agreement for a variety of reasons, beginning with the fact that it’s the official farewell between Moustakas and the Royals, who surprisingly reunited last winter. It seems the Brewers will be rolling the dice on Travis Shaw‘s ability to play second base, as the long-time third-bagger will apparently make way for his new teammate. For the Royals, meanwhile, the focus of this swap is on acquiring MLB options rather than far-off, higher-ceiling talent.
It’s a notable acquisition price for the Brewers to pay, but also a palatable one for a club that had other plans at these positions. After watching Manny Machado, Eduardo Escobar, and Asdrubal Cabrera head elsewhere, the club pivoted to the veteran Moustakas and got something done without giving up prized future pieces.
That said, the fit seems awfully curious; indeed, we expressed some skepticism of that match when it was first suggested. The Milwaukee organization clearly believes that Shaw is capable of playing second base, but he has never yet done so in a professional baseball contest. It certainly helps that the club can still call upon a variety of other infielders to slot in at second when the situation calls for it.
Of course, slotting Moustakas’s bat into a lineup promises to vastly increase the offensive output over the run of marginal bats that left the Brewers with one of the least-productive second base units in the game. He has seen his numbers dwindle over the course of the year, but still owns a .249/.309/.468 batting line that’s good for a 107 wRC+ and falls mostly in line with his typical output at the plate.
Otherwise, Moustakas is grading out as a solid defender and poor baserunner on the year, leaving him as a quality regular. But he’s most effective against right-handed pitching, albeit not by a huge margin, so perhaps skipper Craig Counsell can extract added some added value both by means of seeking platoon advantages and remaining mindful of situational priorities.
It appears that the Brewers will take over Moustakas’s contract, which promised him just $5.5MM this year with a $1MM buyout in a 2019 mutual option. There’s no particular reason to think that the option will be seen as anything more than a formality in this coming offseason, so the Milwaukee organization likely views this as a pure rental situation.
As they send Moustakas on his way, the Royals will receive an interesting return of two young players who already have some MLB experience. Neither is currently billed as highly as they have been in the past. And both will continue to occupy 40-man spots, meaning they’ll be part of the roster picture at the major-league level from the outset.
Phillips still rated as the Brewers’ sixth-best prospect on the latest Baseball America board, though MLB.com wasn’t quite as bullish in rating him tenth. The 24-year-old still has intriguing tools, though he has also struggled to a .240/.331/.411 slash in 299 plate appearances this year at Triple-A. He’ll join the recently acquired Brian Goodwin in giving the Royals organization a group of outfielders that suddenly seems much more interesting.
Lopez, meanwhile, has fallen even farther from grace. Once a consensus top-100 prospect, the 25-year-old has run into some problems of late. He pitched to a 4.25 ERA in 103 2/3 Double-A frames in 2017, but posted much more promising peripherals that supported a 3.21 FIP an 3.13 xFIP. Unfortunately, there’s not much cause for optimism in his 2018 output. Lopez has a 2.75 ERA in 19 2/3 MLB innings, but he also carries a 15:13 K/BB ratio. In 28 2/3 Triple-A frames, he’s working to a 5.65 ERA with 7.2 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Brewers, Orioles Holding “Serious Discussions”
The Brewers and Orioles are “engaged in serious discussions,” per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (via Twitter), though the precise focus of the chatter remains unclear. He does suggest that the sides could be negotiating over second bagger Jonathan Schoop and/or starter Kevin Gausman.
It’s hardly new to hear that these clubs are on the horn with one another. After all, they reputedly batted around proposals involving Manny Machado and Zach Britton, both of whom were ultimately sent elsewhere. It seems reasonable to assume, then, that the organizations are rather familiar with their respective priorities.
With its two major rental pieces already sent out the door, the Baltimore organization has perhaps shifted its attention to weighing proposals for more controllable assets. That said, the club does still have a few pending free agents to work on. There’s little reason to think outfielder Adam Jones would be of interest to the Brewers, though perhaps reliever Brad Brach might.
Ultimately, though, it does stand to reason that the Brewers would mostly be piqued by the possibility of adding one of the two players suggested by Rosenthal. The team’s second-base situation remains in flux, and it has long figured as a likely buyer of a starter. Having missed on Machado and a few other rental infielders who went out the door today, and with the market for rental starters showing little of real interest in stock, GM David Stearns is surely considering a move for assets that also come with future value.
The idea of giving value for players who’ll contribute in later seasons holds obvious appeal, particularly for a smaller-market organization that has turned back into a contender somewhat more rapidly than was generally anticipated. Much as the team wants to take down the Cubs in the NL Central, it will be cognizant of the need to keep one eye on sustainability. Plus, finding an answer at second and bolstering the rotation will likely be offseason priorities regardless.
Both Schoop and Gausman are players with long-evident talent who have had some ups and downs this year. On the heels of a breakout 2017 season, Schoop slumped through the first half of the current season only to go on a tear over the last month. Gausman, meanwhile, has had some inconsistencies and continues to allow a few too many home runs. But he owns a career-high 11.3% swinging-strike rate and some metrics like him better than his 4.54 ERA (4.59 FIP/4.05 xFIP/4.12 SIERA).
Of course, the Orioles also have little reason to move these two players for less-than-enticing returns, as there’s no pressure to cash them in now. Schoop is earning $8.5MM with one season of arbitration control remaining, while Gausman is taking home $5.6MM with two more to go. The Baltimore organization has acknowledged the obvious when it comes to competing in 2018, but it’s still not clear how long a turnaround the club is aiming for when it comes to putting the next contender on the field. It’s certainly notable that the club has some high-priced veterans on the roster.
In any event, for the time being this seems an interesting story to watch rather than something that’s likely to blossom into a finished deal in the immediate future. Roch Kubtko of MASNsports.com tweets that “nothing is imminent” for the O’s this evening.
Latest On Asdrubal Cabrera, Zack Wheeler
12:03pm: Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic tweets that the Mets and Brewers have discussed a package deal that would send both players to Milwaukee, though there’s no indication that anything is close to being completed. The D-backs are indeed in the mix for Cabrera, he adds.
9:05am: Teams who’ve spoken to the Mets about the availability of Asdrubal Cabrera have gotten the impression that he’ll be traded soon, reports Andy Martino of SNY.tv. While “soon” is a relative term, especially with the non-waiver trade deadline just four days away, Martino adds that the Mets then plan to shift their “full attention” to finding a trade partner for Zack Wheeler. Presumably, they’ll want to leave themselves ample room to discuss that swap, so it stands to reason that they’d hope to wrap up a Cabrera swap in short order.
ESPN’s Buster Olney tweeted yesterday that the Diamondbacks have “checked in” on Cabrera as they seek to bolster their own infield mix. Joel Sherman of the New York Post adds the Indians and the Phillies to the fray, though he notes that Philadelphia’s interest would be stronger were Cabrera still viewed as a capable shortstop. Fancred’s Jon Heyman tweets that the Braves and Brewers, too, may be in the market. While a number of teams have inquired to some extent, the Post’s Mike Puma surmised yesterday that there are three or four teams with legitimate interest in Cabrera (Twitter link). As for Wheeler, he’s generating interest from the Brewers and Reds, per Martino. The Cubs had shown interest, though yesterday’s agreement to acquire Cole Hamels would quite likely put an end to that pursuit.
While the Mets have had just about everything possible go wrong for them over the past couple of seasons, their signing of Cabrera in the 2015-16 offseason has proven to be an excellent one. He’s earning $8.5MM in the third year of what proved to be a $25MM contract (after his 2018 option was exercised) and is hitting .277/.329/.488 with 18 homers, 23 doubles and a triple. Cabrera, though, has received dreadful defensive ratings for his work at second base (-18 Defensive Runs Saved, -6 Ultimate Zone Rating), which won’t do his trade value any favors.
As for Wheeler, he’ll obviously have the greater value of the pair, given his affordable salary, the fact that he’s controlled through 2019, his recent success and the plethora of teams seeking to bolster their rotation in the coming days. Over his past 10 starts, Wheeler has worked to a 3.50 ERA (3.40 FIP, 4.17 xFIP) with 7.8 K/9, 3.1 BB/9 and 0.56 HR/9 with a 40.2 percent ground-ball rate. His fastball has averaged 96.4 mph in that span, and he’s posted a strong 11.3 percent swinging-strike rate. Puma noted yesterday that as many as 10 teams have displayed some level of interest.
Latest On Matt Harvey, Reds
The Brewers and Reds are maintaining “ongoing” talks about the potential for a Matt Harvey swap, tweets MLB.com’s Jon Morosi, but outside of a move to send out their lone impending free agent, is seems the Reds may have a quiet deadline. President of baseball ops Dick Williams told MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon yesterday that “other teams aren’t spinning their wheels talking about players we’re not interested in moving at this point,” and there’s even been talk of Cincinnati adding pieces controlled beyond the 2018 season in an effort to return to contending next season.
Williams, in fact, confirmed as much to C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic on Thursday (subscription required), plainly stating that the Reds have inquired on players they “see as fits for us in the next few years.” Rosecrans likens the possibility to Cincinnati’s 2009 acquisition of Scott Rolen as a sub-.500 team at the deadline (and takes an interesting look back at that scenario, talking to Williams, former GM Walt Jocketty and first baseman Joey Votto about that swap). “We think our window is opening up and we may not be able to wait until the offseason to acquire a player we like,” said Williams before going on to acknowledge that starting pitching is an area of need.
Of course, to simply call the rotation an area of need would be underselling the importance of bolstering the starting staff in Cincinnati. Reds starters have pitched to a combined 5.25 ERA that ranks among the 15 worst performances of any collective starting staff in Major League Baseball dating back to the 2010 season. The only Reds starters with an ERA under 5.00 are Matt Harvey, who will be traded within the next few days, and Tyler Mahle (4.53). The Cincinnati rotation ranks last in the Majors in FIP (5.30), 23rd in xFIP (4.57) and 26th in SIERA (4.61).
To be sure, the Reds have youth on their side in many cases, as none of Mahle, Luis Castillo or Sal Romano is even 26 years old yet (nor are Triple-A options Robert Stephenson, Cody Reed and Jose Lopez). Nonetheless, it’s still eye-opening to see a team without even one starting pitcher performing at a league-average level begin to discuss adding pieces with an eye toward contending in the very near future. And given that multiple teams in the National League Central appear well-positioned to maintain some success heading into 2019, the road back to competitive baseball in Cincinnati looks all the more difficult to navigate in the short term.
That said, The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal is the latest to tweet that dealing Harvey might be the only trade the Reds end up making. Cincinnati is “inclined to keep” affordable relievers like Raisel Iglesias, David Hernandez and Jared Hughes, each of whom has been at least speculated upon as a trade candidate.
It’s not entirely clear who the Reds even have eyes on attempting to acquire. The starting pitching market, generally speaking, has a dearth of quality controllable arms available in the first place. Rays righty Chris Archer is the most prominent name with a seemingly realistic chance of being moved, especially now that the Tigers are even unlikelier to deal Michael Fulmer when he’s on the disabled list. Noah Syndergaard and Jacob deGrom, of course, have been prominently mentioned, though most reports indicate that the Mets are planning to hold onto both. Clubs have been inquiring on Orioles right-handers Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy, but there’s been little indication that the O’s are open to moving either. The rebuilding Royals, meanwhile, reportedly have “no intention” of trading southpaw Danny Duffy.
The field may expand when looking at players controlled only through the 2019 season (e.g. Zack Wheeler, Kyle Gibson), though should be wary of surrendering much in the way of future assets in exchange for a player controlled for just one more season, given the uncertainty surrounding their current starters and the strength of the teams atop their division.