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Twins Rumors

Twins Notes: Donaldson, Polanco, Sano

By Steve Adams | January 20, 2020 at 11:33am CDT

The Twins’ initial four-year offer to Josh Donaldson was for $84MM, per Phil Miller and La Velle E. Neal III of the Minneapolis Star Tribune. Shortly thereafter, the team grew pessimistic about signing him, as reports that Donaldson was seeking a $110MM guarantee surfaced. Minnesota’s addition of a fifth-year option with a huge buyout ($16MM option, $8MM buyout) not only boosted the contract’s guarantee to $92MM but also increased the possibility of Donaldson eventually reaching the $100MM mark, which was important to his camp. That increase, of course, also helped the Twins to outbid the rest of the field, which included the Braves, Nationals and, to a lesser extent, the Dodgers and Rangers.

Donaldson himself chatted with Alison Mastrangelo of Channel 2 WSB News in Atlanta about his decision to choose the Twins over the Braves (Twitter links, with video). “Ultimately it wasn’t in the same realm for me [financially],” Donaldson said. “This is going to be my 13th year in the big leagues. I’ve been on a lot of one-year contracts, and the Twins were in a position to where they could offer me a lengthy deal where I thought it was right for me and my family.”

The third baseman called the opportunity to suit up for the Braves, who he grew up watching a “dream come true,” but added that Atlanta wound up “offering me late — like a day or so before.” A return simply “didn’t work out,” Donaldson summed. On the Twins, he expressed excitement over joining a contender with a deep lineup and noted that he’s had success hitting at Minneapolis’ Target Field throughout his career.

More from the Twin Cities…

  • Shortstop Jorge Polanco, who underwent surgery to repair a chronic ankle issue in November, is likely to resume baseball activities this week, tweets Darren Wolfson of SKOR North radio. There was no expectation at the time of the surgery that Polanco’s rehab would extend into Spring Training or the regular season, though it’s nevertheless a positive for the Twins that the 26-year-old’s rehab is seemingly on track. Polanco turned in a strong .295/.356/.485 slash and a career-high 22 home runs in 2019, but he also posted some of the game’s lowest marks in Ultimate Zone Rating and Outs Above Average. Ongoing ankle troubles surely didn’t help Polanco’s mobility, but it’s still tough to expect him to make significant contributions on the defensive side of things.
  • Miguel Sano will shift across the diamond to first base now that the Twins have emerged victorious in the Donaldson bidding, and the slugger has no issue with that move, writes Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. Sano has been working out at first base all winter and said he’s plenty willing to make the switch. (In the aforementioned Star Tribune column, Sano even revealed that he sent a video message to Donaldson in the final days of his free agency, urging him to come to Minnesota to “join the Bomba Squad.”) Moreover, Sano made clear that he hopes to stay in Minnesota well beyond the 2023 season — the final year of club control on the $30MM extension he just signed: “I think regardless of winning or losing, I’ve made up my mind,” Sano said. “I want to spend my entire career here, so this is the first step.”
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Atlanta Braves Minnesota Twins Notes Jorge Polanco Josh Donaldson Miguel Sano

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Twins Targeted Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu Before Winning Donaldson Sweepstakes

By TC Zencka | January 19, 2020 at 12:06am CDT

Before the holidays, the Twins offered Josh Donaldson a four-year, $84MM contract that would have made him the second-highest paid player in team history after Joe Mauer, writes Phil Miller in a profile well worth a read from the Star Tribune. Another interesting tidbit from Miller confirmed that Zack Wheeler had been the Twins’ primary target at the outset of the offseason, shifting only to Donaldson after missing out on Madison Bumgarner and Hyun-Jin Ryu. Donaldson offered a potent bat, of course, but the ability to improve their infield defense at third (and by effect, their pitching) also keyed the Twins on the Bringer of Rain. 

Donaldson and his agent Dan Lozano fielded recruitment efforts from all corners of the Minnesota Twins extended universe before committing, from Miguel Sano over video eagerly offering to accommodate Donaldson by changing positions, to a former tennis professional and friend of Donaldson’s who happens to be a Twins fan, to the substantial recruitment effort put in ink by Twins’ ownership when they offered him a four-year, $92MM contract. The fifth year, $16MM team option helped push the deal over the edge, especially once the Twins’ agreed to set the buyout amount at $8MM. If the option is picked up, the deal becomes a five-year, $100MM pact.

Some of the heaviest lifting was done in a meeting between Donaldson, Lozano, Twins’ manager Rocco Baldelli, General Manager Thad Levine and Chief Baseball Officer Derek Falvey. Baldelli sold Donaldson on clubhouse culture and his plans for deploying Donaldson. The front office put together metrics on their 2019 success and profiled some of the talent on its way to Minneapolis from the minor leagues, establishing a belief that the Twins will remain in contention throughout Donaldson’s tenure.  

Misinformation persisted in the media throughout, with Lozano suspected of leaking the $110MM asking price in the hopes of a team with deep pockets (like the Dodgers) matching the number. It worked, in a way, as the Twins realized Donaldson must not have had the offer he wanted, so they set out with renewed enthusiasm (and more money). Obviously, $100MM turned out to be the magic number.

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Los Angeles Dodgers Minnesota Twins Derek Falvey Hyun-Jin Ryu Joe Mauer Josh Donaldson Madison Bumgarner Miguel Sano Rocco Baldelli Thad Levine Zack Wheeler

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Latest On Byron Buxton

By Connor Byrne | January 17, 2020 at 11:22pm CDT

In a Twins lineup loaded with power hitters, center fielder Byron Buxton can get lost in the shuffle. Buxton’s nevertheless a valuable member of the reigning AL Central champions’ roster, though, and after undergoing left shoulder surgery last September, he’s recovering well, Phil Miller of the Star Tribune reports.

The 26-year-old Buxton received medical clearance this week to swing a bat again and could be ready to face live pitching by the time the Twins’ full-squad workouts begin Feb. 17. That’s yet another bit of encouraging for the Twins, who won 101 games a season ago and, after they struck a deal with star third baseman Josh Donaldson, appear very likely to open 2020 as the favorites in their division.

Buxton’s known to play the field with reckless abandon, which helped lead to injuries that limited him to a meager 87 games and 295 plate appearances last year. Despite an abbreviated campaign, he was an important part of Minnesota’s superb effort. The former No. 2 overall pick managed 2.7 fWAR, hit .262/.314/.513 with 10 home runs and 14 stolen bases, and posted 10 Defensive Runs Saved, a plus-8.7 Ultimate Zone Rating and 12 Outs Above Average in center. None of that production is easily replaceable, and if Buxton’s healthy enough to start 2020 in the Twins’ outfield, it’ll make an already strong team even better.

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Minnesota Twins Byron Buxton

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MLBTR Poll: How Good Are The Twins?

By Connor Byrne | January 17, 2020 at 1:18am CDT

No team took a bigger step forward in 2019 than the Twins, who increased their win total from 78 to 101 in a one-year span. They knocked the back-to-back-to-back AL Central-winning Indians off their pedestal in the process, taking the division by a cushy eight games. The Twins did it with a juggernaut offense known as the Bomba Squad – a group that smashed the all-time single-season home run record with 307 during a historically powerful year across baseball. In the end, though, the Twins’ longtime playoff nemesis in the Bronx proved to be their undoing once again when October arrived.

The Yankees continued to haunt the Twins, but there was still plenty to be encouraged about for the latter when its offseason began. The expectation entering the winter was that the Twins would make aggressive upgrades to their pitching staff, which was facing the departures of four free-agent starters in Jake Odorizzi, Michael Pineda, Kyle Gibson and Martin Perez. They wound up keeping Odorizzi and Pineda, though the latter will miss the beginning of the season after incurring a 60-game suspension for a banned substance last September. Those two and Jose Berrios should give the Twins’ rotation a strong foundation when Pineda returns, but questions abound otherwise.

The Twins didn’t come away with a Zack Wheeler or Madison Bumgarner type in free agency, instead reeling in the veteran duo of Rich Hill and Homer Bailey on one-year deals. Hill has been absolutely great when healthy. Problem is that he’s an oft-injured soon-to-be 40-year-old who won’t debut until the summertime after undergoing elbow surgery. Bailey’s career was all but left for dead a couple years back, but he did experience a resurgence in 2019, turning back into a viable starter with the Royals and A’s. The rest of the Twins’ rotation possibilities are decidedly less experienced, though there’s promise with the likes of Randy Dobnak, Brusdar Graterol, Lewis Thorpe and Devin Smeltzer.

The Twins haven’t splurged on expensive starters or relievers (the battle-tested Sergio Romo and Tyler Clippard signed affordable deals), but they’ve somehow found a way to assemble an even more intimidating offense. The club that boasted five 30-homer hitters a year ago just found a sixth in ex-Brave Josh Donaldson, whom it added on a four-year, $92MM pact. It’s the largest contract the Twins have given a free agent, but Donaldson seems worth it based on his lengthy track record of excellence.

The Donaldson deal might not look great in a few years, at which point he’ll be in his late 30s, but the Twins can worry about tomorrow when it comes. Today they’re focused on a World Series, and they just might get there with an offense capable of pounding opposing teams into submission. Assuming the baseball itself has less juice than it did last year, the Twins are likely to amass fewer HRs as a team. Still, when the likes of Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, Miguel Sano, Eddie Rosario and Mitch Garver are part of your regular lineup, there’s little doubt you’ll terrorize enemy pitchers.

As frightening as the Twins’ offense looks, the team itself could face more tests within a division that it owned last season. Minnesota went a combined 50-26 against the Indians, White Sox, Royals and Tigers. The Indians should still be a quality team (that’s if they don’t trade Francisco Lindor), and the White Sox are on the upswing after they made a slew of noteworthy acquisitons earlier this winter. Detroit and KC will be at the bottom of the division again, but at least the Tigers have made some effort to improve, including with the pickups of ex-Twins C.J. Cron and Jonathan Schoop.

While it may be a more competitive AL Central in 2020, the Twins remain the front-runners. The question is: Just how good do you think they’ll be?

(Poll link for app users)

 

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Minnesota Twins

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MLBTR Poll: Grading The Josh Donaldson Signing

By Jeff Todd | January 15, 2020 at 9:44am CDT

After a lengthy and complicating matchmaking process, the Twins have reportedly come away with elite veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson. It’s a momentous occasion for the Minnesota organization, which is looking to fend off the Indians and White Sox to repeat as AL Central champ.

Though a big strike for Donaldson wasn’t necessarily the club’s very top choice, it became a priority when righty Zack Wheeler decided to head to the Phillies. The Donaldson contract is quite a different proposition in many regards: he’s an older position player, while Wheeler is a younger pitcher. But both players come with similar mixes of lofty ceilings and fairly significant risk factors. And they’ll play for generally equivalent money, with the far senior Donaldson receiving one less guranteed season.

Guaranteeing four years and $92MM to a 34-year-old player is virtually without precedent. As we recently explored, it’s an expansion of the commitments we’ve seen of late to other high-end older players. But the Twins are doing it with eyes wide open. And Donaldson is more than just a high-quality veteran.

If Donaldson can stay healthy and hold back father time just a bit, there’s good reason to hope for massive production. He posted a 132 wRC+ last year and will add yet more pop to an already potent lineup. And Donaldson was somewhere between good and excellent with the glove, depending upon whom you ask. That allows the Twins to unlock yet more value from this signing, as they’ll improve their overall glovework by shifting Miguel Sano over to first base.

That said, there’ll always be some level of trepidation regarding Donaldson’s age and recent history of leg issues. 34 in September, Donaldson may not have lost much to this point. But it’s tougher to overcome the physical ailments that do arise and we have seen plenty of players run into relatively steep declines. Of at least as much concern is the track record from the two seasons prior to his platform campaign. While he was healthy in, Donaldson was limited to 165 total contests over 2017-18 owing mostly to a lingering calf injury.

So … how do you grade this signing from the Twins’ perspective? (Poll link for app users.)

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Minnesota Twins Josh Donaldson

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Twins Extend Miguel Sano

By Jeff Todd | January 14, 2020 at 8:50am CDT

JANUARY 14: The Minnesota organization has now announced the deal.

JANUARY 10: The Twins have inked third baseman Miguel Sano to a three-year extension, according to Jeff Passan of ESPN.com (via Twitter). The deal guarantees Sano $30MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). That includes a $3MM buyout on a 2023 option, which is priced at $14MM. Sano is a client of the Cobb Eddy Sports Group.

Sano entered the offseason in the 4+ service class. Rather than a second trip through the arbitration process — he had been projected to take home a $5.9MM contract — Sano will lock in his final two arb-eligible campaigns while giving the Minnesota organization control over two would-be free-agent seasons.

While there’s some upside to be gained for organization, it’s also a notable vote of confidence in the 26-year-old slugger. Long lauded as a major talent, Sano broke into the league in a big way and was generally very productive with the bat over his first three seasons in the majors. But he literally and figuratively limped through a miserable 2018 season. After an offseason of work created a sense of optimism, Sano was then slowed at the start of 2019 due to an Achilles injury. When he finally returned to action last spring, it was far from clear what to expect.

As it turned out, Sano turned in his most productive offensive run since his rookie showing back in 2015. Over 439 plate appearances, he slashed .247/.346/.576 and socked 34 long balls. Statcast figures gave ample cause to buy into the idea that he was back in top form at the plate. Sano led all of baseball in hard contact percentage and graded in elite company in just about all of the batted-ball measures.

There are some negatives, even in the hitting arena. Sano swings and misses quite a bit, even by today’s standards. He has consistently struck out in more than a third of his plate appearances and seems a safe bet to continue to do so. Sano does draw a decent number of walks — about a dozen per hundred plate appearances historically and in 2019 — but isn’t as dramatically good in that regard as he is dramatically woeful in terms of strikeouts. Perhaps there’s still some reason to hope he can make strides in the plate-discipline arena, since Sano obviously has an eye and must be pitched carefully. But as things stand, he’s dependent upon sustaining a strong batting average on balls in play to prop up his on-base numbers. So long as he’s stinging the ball, that’ll likely work out well enough, but it’d be nice to see some closing of the yawning gap between his strikeout and walk rates.

Supposing that the Twins think Sano can repeat or even expand upon his offensive output of 2019, that’s a heck of a starting point. His 137 wRC+ matched that of Athletics shortstop Marcus Semien, making them the next two players out of the top twenty slots leaguewide among players with at least 400 plate appearances. Of course, Semien produced nearly three times as much fWAR as Sano due to the variety of factors that limit the latter’s value.

First and foremost is the question of glovework. Sano has a huge arm but isn’t exactly the most mobile of players with his massive frame. He has at times graded out between slightly below average and very poor in terms of overall defensive performance at third, by measure of Ultimate Zone Rating and Defensive Runs Saved. Both were down on his work last year, especially UZR. But Statcast’s newly devised defensive grading system isn’t quite so negative, marking Sano as a below-average but hardly disastrous performer at the hot corner.

Even if you take a somewhat more optimistic view of things, it seems safe to say Sano isn’t likely to be more than a palatable defender at third over the life of this contract. And with his big frame and durability concerns, there’s risk he won’t even be that. Of course, it’s still possible that he could shift across the diamond — as soon as 2020, if the Twins land Josh Donaldson — and the DH slot will open up at some point if and when Nelson Cruz retires or heads elsewhere. None of that will resolve Sano’s longstanding woes on the basepaths, where he’s a consistent negative, though Statcast does indicate that Sano was once rather speedy and is still in range of average in average sprint velocity.

Ultimately, the Twins don’t need Sano to be a true superstar for this deal to work out. Picking up control over two of Sano’s potential prime hitting seasons delivers plenty of value upside. And while there are some downside scenarios, the overall guarantee just isn’t great enough to carry significant risk even to a lower-payroll outfit.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

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Minnesota Twins Newsstand Transactions Miguel Sano

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Twins Name Bob McClure Bullpen Coach

By Steve Adams | January 13, 2020 at 7:24am CDT

  • The Twins added former Royals and Phillies pitching coach Bob McClure to their coaching staff, per a team announcement. He’ll serve as their new bullpen coach, replacing the departed Jeremy Hefner, whom the Mets hired as their new pitching coach. The 67-year-old McClure is twice as old as the man he’s replacing, but he’s familiar with the organization after spending time as a pitching advisor with the Twins over the past three seasons. The Twins also bumped assistant hitting coach Rudy Hernandez to the title of hitting coach. They’ll somewhat atypically have two coaches with that title — Edgar Varela is the other — as opposed to the more conventional arrangement of one lead coach and one assistant. Varela and Hernandez are stepping up following the departure of James Rowson, who took a job as the Marlins’ new “offensive coordinator.”
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Chicago White Sox Detroit Tigers Minnesota Twins Notes Bob McClure James McCann Matt Boyd

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2020 Arbitration Filing Numbers

By Jeff Todd | January 10, 2020 at 7:07pm CDT

MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker is the place to go to see the arbitration contracts agreed upon thus far, as well as the figures exchanged between teams and players that were not able to reach agreement before today’s deadline to swap salary positions. Matt Swartz’s arbitration projections are available here.

After a busy day of dealmaking, 161 players (at last check) have reached agreement on arbitration salaries for the coming season. But 29 other tendered players have yet to reach reported agreements with their clubs. Of course, those players can still settle before their hearings (which will take place in early to mid-February). If the case goes to a hearing, the arbitrator must choose one side’s figures, rather than settling on a midpoint. It’s hardly an unusual number of unresolved cases at this stage, but there are quite a few high-dollar situations still at issue and teams have increasingly adopted a “file-and-trial” approach to the process in recent years. (That is, no negotiations on single-season salaries after the deadline to exchange figures.)

We’ve gathered the highest-stakes arbitration situations remaining in this post, but you can find them all in the tracker. We’ll update this list as the figures are reported:

  • George Springer, Astros: $22.5MM versus $17.5MM (Jeff Passan of ESPN.com, via Twitter)
  • J.T. Realmuto, Phillies: $12.4MM versus $10MM (Jim Salisbury of NBC Sports Philly, via Twitter)
  • Trevor Story, Rockies: $11.5MM versus $10.75MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
  • Joc Pederson, Dodgers: $9.5MM versus $7.75MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
  • Eduardo Rodriguez, Red Sox: $8.975MM versus $8.3MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
  • Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks: $6.95MM versus $6.6MM (Mark Feinsand of MLB.com, via Twitter)
  • Shane Greene, Braves: $6.75MM versus $6.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
  • Josh Hader, Brewers: $6.4MM versus $4.1MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
  • Chris Taylor, Dodgers: $5.8MM versus $5.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
  • Hector Neris, Phillies: $5.2MM versus $4.25MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
  • Max Muncy, Dodgers: $4.675MM versus $4MM (Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, via Twitter)
  • Jose Berrios, Twins: $4.4MM versus $4.025MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
  • Andrew Benintendi, Red Sox: $4.15MM versus $3.4MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
  • Archie Bradley, Diamondbacks: $4.1MM versus $3.625MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
  • Pedro Baez, Dodgers: $4.0MM versus $3.5MM (Jon Heyman of MLB Network, via Twitter)
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Arizona Diamondbacks Atlanta Braves Boston Red Sox Colorado Rockies Houston Astros Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Dodgers Milwaukee Brewers Minnesota Twins Philadelphia Phillies Andrew Benintendi Archie Bradley Brian Goodwin Chris Taylor Eduardo Rodriguez George Springer Hector Neris J.T. Realmuto Joc Pederson Jose Berrios Josh Hader Max Muncy Mike DiGiovanna Nick Ahmed Pedro Baez Shane Greene Trevor Story

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Players Avoiding Arbitration: American League

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | January 10, 2020 at 7:00pm CDT

Entering the day, there were more than 150 players on the clock to exchange arbitration figures with their respective teams prior to a noon ET deadline. As one would expect, there’ll be an utter landslide of arbitration agreements in advance of that deadline. We already ran through some key facts and reminders on the arbitration process earlier this morning for those who are unfamiliar or simply need a refresher on one of MLB’s most complex idiosyncrasies, which will hopefully clear up many questions readers might have.

We’ll track the majority of the American League’s settlements in this post and split off a separate one for NL settlements as well. Note that all projections referenced come courtesy of MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz:

  • Newly acquired Angels righty Dylan Bundy receives a $5MM salary, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (Twitter links). He had projected at a $5.7MM price tag. Teammate Hansel Robles gets $3.85MM, per Heyman, just shy of his $4MM projection.
  • The Yankees have worked out deals with all of their eligible players. The team has a hefty $8.5MM pact with Aaron Judge, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand (via Twitter). Backstop Gary Sanchez settled for $5MM, per Feinsand (via Twitter). The New York org will pay righty Luis Cessa $895K and Jonathan Holder $750K, Murray reports (Twitter links). Fellow reliever Tommy Kahnle will earn $2.65MM, per Jon Heyman of MLB Network (via Twitter). And star lefty James Paxton has settled at $12.5MM, Heyman adds via Twitter. Chad Green and Jordan Montgomery have also agreed to terms, the former at $1.275MM and the latter at $805K, per Heyman (Twitter links).
  • The Twins announced that they struck deals with Trevor May, Taylor Rogers, Eddie Rosario and Byron Buxton. Jon Heyman of MLB Network followed up with salary terms (all links to Twitter). May earns $2,205,000; Rogers takes home $4.45MM; Rosario lands at $7.75MM; and Buxton receives $3.075MM. While the first and last of those land rather close to the projected amount, Rogers got $550K more and Rosario got $1.15MM less than the calculators predicted.
  • Shortstop Carlos Correa settled with the Astros for $8MM, per MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart (via Twitter). Righty Brad Peacock lands at a $3.9MM salary, per Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle (Twitter link). The former went for more than his $7.4MM projection, while the latter ended up shy of the $4.6MM mark produced by the computers. The ’Stros also have agreed with closer Roberto Osuna as well, per an announcement. It’s a $10MM deal, slotting in just $200K shy of his projection, per Rome (via Twitter).
  • The Orioles have a deal with outfielder/first baseman Trey Mancini, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets. It’s for $4.75MM, per Dan Connolly of The Athletic (via Twitter), well south of the $5.7MM projection.
  • Outfielder Jorge Soler has agreed to a $7.3MM deal with the Royals, MLB.com’s Jeffrey Flanagan tweets. That’s well off of the $11.2MM that MLBTR’s model projected, though it is likely that the cause of the gulf lies in the interpretation of the correct baseline to start from in building Soler’s salary. He’s in the 4+ service class but had been playing on the original deal he signed out of Cuba.
  • The Tigers have a deal in place with southpaw Matthew Boyd, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter). It’ll pay him $5.3MM, per Chris McCosky of the Detroit News (Twitter link). That falls comfortably below the $6.4MM, suggesting that Boyd’s camp was concerned with the way his suboptimal ERA would play in the arb process. Fellow lefty starter Daniel Norris will earn $2.96MM, McCosky tweets.

Earlier Settlements

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  • Carlos Rodon ($4.45MM) and Nomar Mazara ($5.56MM) each have deals with the White Sox, per Robert Murray (Twitter links). The former was projected at $4.5MM after an injury limited season, making for an expectedly light raise on his $4.2MM salary from the prior campaign. The latter, recently acquired from the Rangers, comes in just under the $5.7MM the MLBTR model projected. The Chicago organization also announced that it has agreed to terms with infielder Leury Garcia for $3.25MM and righty Evan Marshall for $1.1MM.
  • The Angels have a $900K deal in place with righty Noe Ramirez, per Maria Torres of the Los Angeles Times (via Twitter).
  • Recently acquired Indians outfielder Delino DeShields Jr. will play for $1.875MM, per Paul Hoynes of the Plain Dealer (via Twitter).
  • Tigers outfielder JaCoby Jones will play for $1.575MM, per Anthony Fenech of the Detroit Free Press (via Twitter).
  • Righty Buck Farmer will earn $1.15MM from the Tigers, Robert Murray reports on Twitter.
  • The Rays will pay righty Oliver Drake $1.025MM, according to Murray (via Twitter). Infielder Daniel Robertson will play for the same rate, per John Romano of the Tampa Bay Times (via Twitter).
  • The White Sox signed closer Alex Colome to a one-year deal worth $10.5325MM, tweets Jesse Sanchez of MLB.com. A free agent next winter, Colome had been projected to earn $10.3MM. Chicago also settled at $1.1MM with righty Evan Marshall, per Robert Murray. He was projected at $1.3MM.
  • Infielder Gio Urshela and the Yankees agreed to a $2.475MM that tops his $2.2MM projection, tweets Murray.
  • The Rangers agreed to deals with Joey Gallo ($4.4MM) and Danny Santana ($3.6MM), Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports (Twitter links). Murray adds that righty Rafael Montero gets $785K from Texas. Gallo bested his $4MM projection, while Santana fell shy of his $3.9MM projection and Montero cam in south of his $900K number.
  • Right-hander Nick Wittgren and the Indians are in agreement on a one-year, $1.125MM deal that checks in a bit south of his $1.3MM projection, per Murray.
  • The Mariners agreed to terms with outfielders Mitch Haniger ($3.01MM) and Mallex Smith ($2.35MM), tweets Murray. Haniger’s salary is a near-exact match with his $3MM projection, though Smith clocks in a bit south of his $2.7MM figure.
  • Right-hander Chris Devenski and the Astros settled on a $2MM salary that aligns perfectly with his $2MM projected salary, tweets Chandler Rome of the Houston Chronicle.
  • The Angels and infielder Tommy La Stella agreed to a $3.25MM deal that tops his $2.9MM projection, per MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand.
  • Orioles infielder Hanser Alberto will be paid $1.65MM in 2020, tweets Joe Trezza of MLB.com. He was projected at $1.9MM.
  • The Twins and right-hander Tyler Duffey agreed to a $1.2MM deal, tweets Darren Wolfson of 1500 SKOR North radio. That’s $100K north of his $1.1MM projection in the first of three trips through arbitration.
  • Southpaw Andrew Heaney and the Angels agreed on a $4.3MM salary, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. That’s quite a bit shy of the flat $5MM he was projected to earn on the heels of an injury-shortened campaign. A Super Two player, Heaney will be arb-eligible once more next winter.
  • Infielder/outfielder Chad Pinder and the Athletics settled on a one-year, $2.025MM deal, tweets Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle. That tops the $1.8MM at which he was projected in his first year of eligibility.
  • The Orioles and righty Mychal Givens settled at $3.225MM, tweets USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. It’s nearly a dead match with the $3.2MM projection of Givens, who’ll be arbitration-eligible once more next winter before hitting free agency after the 2021 season.
  • Outfielder Hunter Renfroe and the Rays agreed to a $3.3MM deal, tweets Nightengale. That checks in $100K south of the $3.4MM projection for Renfroe, who’ll be arb-eligible three more times.
  • Nightengale also tweets that the Blue Jays and Matt Shoemaker agreed to a $4.2MM contract, topping his $3.8MM projection by a sum of $400K. He’ll be a free agent next winter.
  • The Indians and outfielder Tyler Naquin settled at $1.45MM, tweets Mark Feinsand of MLB.com. He falls shy of his $1.8MM projection in the first of three trips through arb.
  • Righty Matt Barnes and the Red Sox have agreed to a $3.1MM deal, also via Feinsand. He was projected to earn $3MM as a second-time-eligible player. Nightengale adds that right-hander Heath Hembree and the Sox agreed to a $1.6125MM deal, which nearly matches his $1.6MM projection.
  • The Rays and righty Tyler Glasnow agreed to a $2.05MM salary for the upcoming season, MLBTR has learned. That salary clocks in north of his $1.9MM projection. As a Super Two player, Glasnow will be eligible for arbitration thrice more.
  • The Angels have agreed to a one-year pact with right-hander Keynan Middleton that’ll pay him $800K, tweets Robert Murray. That’s an exact match with the projection for Middleton, who underwent Tommy John surgery in 2018 but returned to the mound in 2019.
  • Righty Sam Tuivailala and the Mariners agreed to an $800K salary for the upcoming season, tweets Murray. He was projected to earn $900K after returning from 2018 surgery to repair a tear in his Achilles tendon.
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Assessing The State Of The Josh Donaldson Market

By Steve Adams and Jeff Todd | January 9, 2020 at 7:14am CDT

While most of this year’s top-tier free agents could stuff new-team swag in their family’s stockings, veteran third baseman Josh Donaldson remains unsigned a third of the way through January. That’s nothing compared to the laborious matchmaking processes we witnessed last year. And it’s hardly uncommon historically. But it does leave us with at least one protracted offseason drama to witness.

It has seemed at times as if momentum could be building toward a signing. But the latest run of reporting injects new uncertainty into the body of publicly reported information regarding the bidding.

Perhaps growing impatient with the increasingly drawn-out nature of the Donaldson negotiations, and/or seeking leverage in talks, the Twins have begun to explore the trade market for alternative approaches to improving their club, Dan Hayes and Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic report (subscription required). The Twins, per the report, have “seen an uptick” in the volume of trade talks over the past three days as they explore additions at a variety of positions. The club isn’t limiting itself to corner infield options and remains open to adding a starting pitcher if the opportunity presents itself.

Meanwhile, the Washington Post’s Jesse Dougherty writes that the Nationals have “all but moved on from Donaldson.” That’s perhaps contradictory with recent reporting indicating that the Nats haven’t pulled their offer, but the two could also coexist. It’s plausible, for instance, that the Nationals could leave their previously standing offer on the table but that the team also doesn’t intend to actively pursue a signing and doesn’t expect to land Donaldson. At minimum, with Starlin Castro, Howie Kendrick, Eric Thames and Asdrubal Cabrera all in the fray, the D.C. org obviously feels no pressure to push up its bid.

At this point, it’s fair to wonder just how close the Donaldson camp will get to the third baseman’s reported asking price — said just a few days ago to sit in the vicinity of $110MM. Ever since Anthony Rendon signed, we’ve heard talk of heavy interest in Donaldson. And an expectation has emerged more recently that he would enter the rarefied nine-figure realm. Indeed, as we discussed last week, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported that the Twins, Nationals and Braves “all have four-year offers out to [Donaldson] in that $100MM range.”

What exactly constitutes the “$100MM range” is perhaps subject to some degree of interpretation, but the most recent reports out of Minnesota and Atlanta don’t exactly dovetail with that line of thinking. 1500 SKOR North radio’s Darren Wolfson suggested that the Twins’ offer was more in the $80-85MM range, while MLB.com’s Mark Bowman reported on doubt as to whether the Atlanta organization was even close to the top bidder.

Notably, Dougherty writes in the aforementioned Washington Post column that the Nationals did indeed make a four-year, $100MM offer to Donaldson. But it’s important to bear in mind that, with the Nationals more than any other club, the surface-level number of an offer can be somewhat misleading. The Nationals utilize deferred money in their long-term contracts more than any club in baseball, and while there’s been no firm indication that their offer to Donaldson marked a continuation of that trend, it’d hardly be a surprise to learn that’s indeed the case. The Nats, after all, have baked deferrals into the contracts of Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg, Patrick Corbin, Anibal Sanchez and Matt Wieters in recent years. One of the primary reasons that Rendon was said to have spurned Washington’s final extension offer (seven years, $215MM) was because of significant deferred monies.

The question, then, is where the price pressure will come from at this point if Donaldson and his reps at MVP Sports Group are truly determined to secure a deal in the vicinity of that reported $110MM price point. That Donaldson remains unsigned well into January — Hayes notes that the Twins originally believed he preferred to sign prior to Christmas — suggests that none of the bidders have been willing to do so. And the loss of the Nationals as a driving force could leave Donaldson with two highly cost-conscious organizations patiently engaged in a staring contest.

MVP was able to find $300MM for Manny Machado last February, so we may presume some patience on that side of the table as well. But it’s tougher in this case to identify a club that could emerge as a viable nine-figure suitor for an already 34-year-old third baseman, even after an elite 2019 season. The Dodgers, Rangers, Phillies, and others could afford to but haven’t shown any appetite for a massive, lengthy pact. One or more of those clubs could in theory jolt the market a bit by dangling higher-AAV, shorter-term offers. But even in that scenario, getting into the desired realm would still require prodding the Atlanta and/or Minnesota organizations into stretching their valuations yet further. It could ultimately turn out that D.C. is the only place Donaldson can reach the century mark — even if only in nominal form, depending upon deferrals — though that could certainly still change.

It was always going to be difficult to push Donaldson into this rarefied air. As we debated our top 50 free agent list, we felt there’d be broad and strong interest in the hot corner stalwart. But we ultimately capped the prediction at three years and $75MM based upon his age and health history.

To be sure, we’ve rarely seen a player of quite this present-day ability available on the open market at this precise age. But the data points available suggest that teams have been unwilling both to extend on the length of the deal and to pay a premium annual salary. Kevin Brown was the original $100MM player. So far as we can ascertain, he’s also still the only man to receive a total promise of that magnitude entering his age-34 or later season. (The news of his signing was met with rather boldly stated consternation from some notable figures around the game.) Carlos Beltran was a monster in 2011, his age-34 season, but settled for a two-year, $26M deal in the ensuing winter. His health and performance trajectory in advance of free agency closely mirror those of Donaldson. Much more recently, Ben Zobrist secured four years, but at a relatively modest $56MM guarantee. Defensively limited slugger Edwin Encarnacion took down $60MM over three years entering his age-34 season.

That history hardly constitutes binding precedent. The market is made anew every winter. But there are other headwinds here for Donaldson, with aging curves trending younger and many MLB teams clearly prioritizing long-term payroll flexibility. This winter set up about as well as he could’ve hoped — he turned in a huge bounceback season, leaguewide spending has trended back up, and demand at third base has handily outstripped supply — but making it to his reported target salary always was and still remains an ambitious undertaking.
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Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals Minnesota Twins Uncategorized Washington Nationals Josh Donaldson

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