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MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Athletics Move, Twins Rotation, Reynolds Extension

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Episode 4 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press to discuss:

  • Oakland’s move to Las Vegas took a big step forward, so Betsy, who covered baseball for the Las Vegas Review-Journal, tells us about Vegas as a baseball city (1:35)
  • The Twins are off to a solid start to the season and Joey Gallo is hitting very well, so is he back? (5:24)
  • Minnesota is set to lose Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda to free agency this winter, so after the Pablo Lopez extension Betsy offers her thoughts on whether or not there’ll be any more rotation extensions for the Twins (7:26)

Plus, MLBTR’s Anthony Franco joins to talk:

  • Bryan Reynolds has agreed to an eight-year, $106.75MM extension with the Pirates – is this a good deal for the team? (15:01)
  • Madison Bumgarner has been designated for assignment by the Diamondbacks and looks headed for free agency; will he find a new team? (24:57)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Twins Designate Trevor Megill For Assignment

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The Twins announced that they have selected the contract of right-hander Brock Stewart, a move that was reported earlier today. To open a spot for Stewart on the active roster, righty Bailey Ober was optioned to Triple-A St. Paul yesterday. To get Stewart onto the 40-man roster, righty Trevor Megill was designated for assignment.

Megill, 29, made his major league debut with the Cubs in 2021. He posted an 8.37 ERA in 28 appearances, though he struck out 26.1% of batters faced and walked just 7%. He was claimed off waivers by the Twins at season’s end, though they quickly non-tendered him and re-signed him on a minor league deal. He got selected to the roster in May and made 39 appearances for the Twins last year, registering a 4.80 ERA. It’s possible that he deserved even better, given his .368 batting average on balls in play and 62.5% strand rate. Decent peripherals like a 25% strikeout rate, 8.7% walk rate and 45% ground ball rate led to a 3.29 FIP and 3.38 SIERA.

The righty was optioned to Triple-A to start this season but has gotten out to an atrocious start. He’s tossed 9 2/3 innings over seven outings, walking 25.5% of batters faced, which has contributed to an unsightly 13.03 ERA. He struck out 31.4% of batters faced and got grounders at a 50% clip, but the overall results were clearly not great.

The Twins will now have a week to trade Megill or pass him through waivers. Despite his rough start to the year, other clubs may overlook that small sample and take a flier on the righty based on past results, as he still has a couple of options and has yet to qualify for arbitration.

Twins To Select Brock Stewart

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The Twins are set to select the contract of right-hander Brock Stewart, MLBTR has confirmed. Jeremy Maschino first suggested that Stewart could be on his way to join the Twins’ big league club today. They’ll need to make a 40-man roster move to accommodate Stewart’s addition, though they have at least one on-paper candidate for the 60-day injured list, as right-hander Ronny Henriquez has spent the entire season on the 15-day injured list due to an elbow issue and has yet to throw a pitch.

This will be the first MLB stint for the 31-year-old Stewart since 2019, when he tossed 25 2/3 innings between the Dodgers and the Blue Jays. He didn’t pitch in 2020 due to the canceled minor league season, and Tommy John surgery plus a second procedure to remove a bone spur from his elbow wiped out most of his 2021-22 seasons. Stewart made it back to a minor league mound with the Twins late in the ’22 season but struggled across three levels, allowing 10 earned runs in 14 innings.

The 2023 season has been a much different story thus far. He’s blitzed out of the gate with a 2.08 ERA and gaudy 48.6% strikeout rate in 8 2/3 innings, walking just 5.7% of his opponents. Stewart’s raw 17-to-2 K/BB ratio is intriguing, even in a small sample at the Triple-A level, particularly since he’s added considerable velocity in recent years. Stewart averaged 92.8 mph on his four-seamer during his 2016-19 run with Los Angeles and Toronto but has since moved to short relief stints and ramped that velocity into the upper 90s. In addition to that massive strikeout rate, he’s also sporting an enormous 22.1% swinging-strike rate in St. Paul.

The back end of the Twins’ bullpen has been outstanding thus far, as closer Jhoan Duran and setup men Jorge Lopez, Griffin Jax and Caleb Thielbar are all out to strong starts. It’s been far shakier after that quartet, with righty Emilio Pagan and lefty Jovani Moran both sporting early ERAs that begin with a seven. Twins starters rank second in the Majors in innings pitched so far — a remarkable change of course from the 2022 season — so they haven’t had to lean too heavily on the arms in their middle relief corps. Still, the front office and manager Rocco Baldelli would surely prefer a deeper supply of reliable arms, and at least based on his early output in St. Paul, Stewart could potentially give them another hard-throwing, bat-missing arm to help stabilize the group. Stewart is out of minor league options, so he’ll need to stick on the Twins’ big league roster or else be passed through waivers before he can return to Triple-A.

Twins Recall Bailey Ober

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The Twins have recalled right-hander Bailey Ober to start this afternoon’s game against the Nationals, per a team announcement. To make room for Ober on the active roster, right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson has been optioned to Triple-A.

Ober, 27, has yet to pitch in the majors this season but impressed in 11 starts last year, pitching to a 3.21 ERA (120 ERA+) with a 2.92 FIP in 56 innings of work. Ober struck out 22.5% of batters faced while walking a microscopic 4.8%, though not all of his success appears that sustainable; just 4.8% of Ober’s fly balls last season left the yard for home runs in spite of a 11.7% barrel rate. More fly balls leaving the yard could be a significant issue for Ober, for whom fly balls made up 51.2% of his total balls in play in the majors last year.

Following Kenta Maeda’s return from Tommy John surgery and the club’s acquisition of Pablo Lopez from the Marlins, Ober ultimately found himself pushed out of the rotation to open the season. He’s seen great success in Triple-A to start the year, however, with a 2.55 ERA and 2.71 FIP in 17 2/3 innings of work so far in 2023. That performance, combined with the need for a spot starter in today’s game, led to Ober’s first call to the majors this season, which should give the Twins additional time to determine if Maeda will require a stint on the 15-day injured list after being hit with a line drive in Thursday’s game against the Red Sox. Should Maeda require a trip to the IL, Ober figures to slot into the big league rotation for longer than today’s spot start.

Woods Richardson, meanwhile, heads back to Triple-A after making just one appearance, a 4 2/3 inning relief outing yesterday during which the 22-year-old righty surrendered five runs on seven hits and three walks. The youngster is considered the club’s 8th best prospect, according to MLB Pipeline, and was viewed as a top 100 prospect in the sport as recently as 2021. Despite his prospect pedigree, it seems unlikely the youngster will factor into Minnesota’s rotation plans this season, given the club’s considerable depth at the position. For now he will head back to Triple-A, where he’s posted a 3.30 ERA in 43 2/3 career innings, and wait for his next big league opportunity.

Twins Notes: Maeda, Ober, Kirilloff, Buxton

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X-rays were negative on Kenta Maeda’s left ankle after the Twins starter was hit by Jarren Duran line drive on Thursday, though it isn’t yet clear if Maeda will still require a stint on the 15-day injured list.  The team is planning to push back Maeda’s next turn in the rotation, and reporters (including MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park) were told that more on Maeda’s condition will be known after he gets through a light throwing session today, and then a bullpen session on Monday.

Bailey Ober is being called up on Sunday for a spot start in Minnesota’s game with the Nationals, thus pushing back the rest of the Twins rotation and providing a bit more time for Maeda to recover.  If Maeda is able to pitch, he’d take the mound at some point during the Twins’ four-game series with the Royals from April 27-30.

Maeda missed all of the 2022 season due to Tommy John surgery, and the results have been somewhat mixed in his first three starts back in action.  Beyond the obvious negative of the ankle bruise, Maeda has been allowing a lot of hard contact, his 23.1% strikeout rate is barely above the league average, and his fastball velocity has dropped to 89.9 mph from his previous career average of 91.2mph (though velo has never been a big part of Maeda’s arsenal).  On the plus side, he has a 4.15 ERA over 13 innings, with an elite-level chase rate and walk rate — the right-hander has issued just one walk to date this season.

In other injury news, Alex Kirilloff has yet to play this season, as the former star prospect opened the season on the 10-day IL while still recovering from his season-ending wrist surgery last August.  Kirilloff is nearing the end of his 20-day minor league rehab assignment, but The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman reports that some team officials feel Kirilloff won’t immediately join the Twins’ big league roster once activated from the IL, as he instead could be optioned to Triple-A.

Kirilloff has played in only seven minor league games during his rehab assignment, and didn’t see any game action during Spring Training.  As a result, the Twins might feel he simply needs more time to fully ramp up to face MLB pitching, even though Kirilloff has been hitting very well during his limited minor league at-bats.  The returns of Jorge Polanco and Joey Gallo from the IL have helped bolster the Twins’ lineup, and in Gallo’s case specifically, he has been playing first base — ostensibly Kirilloff’s position when he eventually gets back to the Show.  Since Minnesota has no glaring need in the lineup and naturally the team wants to be cautious with Kirilloff given his history of wrist problems, it could mean a more extended stint at Triple-A.

Speaking of injury histories, Byron Buxton has thankfully remained off the injured list thus far in 2023, which could be in part due to the Twins’ deployment of the outfielder has a full-time DH.  Buxton has yet to play in the field this season, and manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including John Shipley of the St. Paul Pioneer Press) that he didn’t know when or necessarily even if Buxton would be back in the outfield.  “I am enjoying the fact that I get to write his name in the lineup virtually every day right now.  And at this point, I’m not going to do anything to jeopardize that, because I think that’s the most important thing,” Baldelli said.

For his part, Buxton admitted that “I wouldn’t say comfortable” about the arrangement, saying that being a DH is “still a job that’s not normal for me.  It’s still something I’m figuring out.”  However, Buxton also said that “as long as I’m playing, that don’t faze me.”  Buxton has been solid if unspectacular at the plate thus far, hitting .243/.316/.443 with three homers over 79 plate appearances, translating to a 113 wRC+.

Minor MLB Transactions: 4/22/23

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Catching up on some minor league moves from around baseball, with a tip of the cap to Chris Hilburn-Trenkle of Baseball America….

  • The Yankees released catcher Nick Ciuffo earlier this month, according to Ciuffo’s MLB.com’s profile page.  Ciuffo signed a minor league deal in March but didn’t see any game action in New York’s farm system.  Ciuffo has played in three of the last five MLB seasons, last appearing with the Orioles in 2021 and amassing 21 total games in the big leagues (19 with Tampa Bay).  The Rays selected Ciuffo with the 21st overall pick of the 2013 draft, but he has posted only a .248/.294/.348 slash line over 2053 career plate appearances in the minors.
  • The Marlins acquired left-hander Sean Nolin from the Twins earlier this month, and Nolin made his debut with Triple-A Jacksonville last Wednesday.  Nolin signed a minor league deal with Minnesota in February, after spending the 2022 season in the Korea Baseball Organization.  Nolin pitched with the Blue Jays and A’s from 2013-15, and then with the Nationals in 2021, spending time bouncing around the minors, the independent leagues, the KBO League and in Japan with NPB amidst his brief stints in the majors.  The 33-year-old Nolin has a 5.74 ERA over his 58 career innings in the big leagues.
  • Sticking with the Marlins and their Triple-A affiliate, Jacksonville announced earlier this week that right-hander Enrique Burgos had been released.  Burgos signed a minors contract in the offseason but struggled to a 16.20 ERA over 3 1/3 innings with Jacksonville.  Burgos’ MLB resume consists of 68 1/3 innings with the Diamondbacks in 2015-16, and he has since mostly pitched in the Mexican League and in the independent Atlantic League, as well as regular appearances in winter ball.

Twins Reinstate Jorge Polanco

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The Twins announced a series of roster moves today, with infielder Jorge Polanco reinstated from the injured list and right-hander Simeon Woods Richardson recalled from Triple-A. In corresponding moves, righty Jorge Alcalá and infielder Edouard Julien were optioned to Triple-A. The Polanco-Julien swap was reported by Twins Farm Report on Twitter prior to the official club announcement.

Polanco, 29, is in tonight’s lineup, batting fifth and playing second base. This will be his first major league game since August of last year. He was placed on the injured list in early September due to left knee inflammation and wasn’t able to return. As this year’s Spring Training ramped up, everything seemed aligned for him to make the Opening Day roster, but he was eventually slowed down in the middle of March with what chief baseball officer Derek Falvey called “normal soreness.” That ultimate led to an IL-placement on Opening Day, but he’ll now slot back into the Minnesota lineup for the first time in almost eight months.

He began his career as a shortstop and didn’t get especially strong marks for his glovework but showed encouraging offensive abilities. By the end of 2018, he had appeared in 288 games and struck out in just 16.2% of his plate appearances while demonstrating a bit of power with 23 home runs. His .272/.329/.420 batting line amounted to a wRC+ of 100, indicating he was exactly league average in that time.

The Twins clearly believed that Polanco would grow into something more, as they then signed him to a five-year, $25.75MM extension with a couple of club options. Polanco has since proved them right, hitting 75 home runs over the past four seasons, one of which was the pandemic-shortened 2020 campaign. His .270/.337/.459 line in that time amounts to a wRC+ of 117. He’s since moved to second base in deference to stronger shortstop defenders like Andrelton Simmons and Carlos Correa.

Polanco is now in the final guaranteed season of that extension, though it seems likely that those options will be picked up. The 2024 option is valued at $10.5MM with a $1MM buyout, making it a net $9.5MM decision. The 2025 option is worth $12.5MM with a $750K buyout, making it a net $11.75MM decision. Those are reasonable salaries for a potent bat at an up-the-middle position.

While Polanco has been out of action this year, most of the playing time at second base has gone to Julien, Nick Gordon and Kyle Farmer. Julien will now go back to the minors to get regular work down there. Farmer went on the IL last week after getting hit in the face by a fastball from Lucas Giolito. Though the incident looked quite scary on the broadcast, Farmer managed to avoid any fractures and was mostly limited to dental injuries. He told Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press today that he still has to get four root canals next week but has started doing baseball activities like hitting off a tee and taking ground balls.

Twins Extend Pablo Lopez

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April 21: The Twins formally announced this morning that they’ve signed Lopez to a four-year extension, covering the 2024-27 seasons. FanSided’s Robert Murray reports that the contract breaks down in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, an $8MM salary in 2024 and annual salaries of $21.5MM from 2025-27.

April 17: The Twins are keeping their big offseason trade acquisition for the long haul. Minnesota is reportedly in agreement with right-hander Pablo Lopez on a four-year, $73.5MM contract extension. The deal is pending a physical. Lopez is represented by Excel Sports Management.

Lopez, 27, came to the Twins alongside top shortstop prospect Jose Salas and minor league outfielder Byron Chourio in the January trade that sent infielder Luis Arraez to the Marlins. He’s already locked into a $5.45MM salary for the ongoing 2023 season, which is his second of three scheduled arbitration seasons. The new contract with the Twins will buy out Lopez’s final arbitration season and what would’ve been his first three free-agent seasons; once completed, the Twins will have Lopez signed through his age-31 season.

Assuming Lopez would’ve landed somewhere in the $10MM range for his final arbitration season, the contract effectively buys out his first three free-agent years for a combined $63MM, give or take a bit. The deal values Lopez at somewhere around $20-21MM per free-agent season. That annual range takes him past the AAVs that mid-rotation arms like Taijuan Walker ($18MM) and Jameson Taillon ($17MM) agreed to this past offseason.

From a structural standpoint, there are some similarities to the recent extension between the Giants and their own top starter, Logan Webb. That $90MM deal, a record for the three-plus service class, also bought out three free-agent seasons. However, Webb’s deal bought out two arbitration seasons, and his first arbitration salary ($4.6MM) topped that of Lopez ($2.425MM), which helps to explain the gap between the final guarantees on the two deals.

Lopez could certainly have gone the year-to-year route, reaching free agency in advance of his age-29 season and perhaps setting himself up for a five- or even six-year deal in the process. Of course, that’d have been a gamble to some extent, given the ever-present risk of injury that’s inherent to all pitchers. That’s particularly notable for Lopez, who has thrice been on the injured list due to right shoulder troubles to this point in his career.

Through his first four starts with the Twins, Lopez has looked like a star. After pitching to a 3.75 ERA in a career-high 32 starts and 180 innings in 2022, he’s surged out to a 1.73 ERA through four starts and 26 innings with the Twins. Lopez’s 95.4 mph average fastball is a career-best mark, and his 33.7% strikeout rate trounces the 23.2% mark he posted in parts of five seasons in Miami. He’s managed to up his velocity and strikeout rate without sacrificing his pinpoint command; this year’s 6.1% walk rate tops the 6.7% mark he posted in his Marlins career.

Much of Lopez’s success to date can be attributed to a newly unveiled sweeper that has thus far befuddled opposing batters. Opponents are batting just .111 against the pitch with a massive 50% whiff rate, per Statcast. Between that and the gains on his fastball, Lopez is unsurprisingly boasting career-best marks in swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate. It’s only a sample of four starts, of course, but the results have generally exceeded even the most optimistic expectations for the righty. Time will tell whether he can sustain it all over a larger sample — a .236 BABIP and 89.1% strand rate both seem ripe for regression — but the Twins can only be thrilled with their end of that offseason trade.

With Lopez now locked in through at least the 2027 season, he joins Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton among the focal points of the Twins’ core. The Twins control catcher Christian Vazquez, second baseman Jorge Polanco and righty Chris Paddack through the 2025 season, but Correa, Buxton and now Lopez are the only players on guaranteed deals beyond that ’25 campaign. Of course, the Twins will have plenty of core players in arbitration at that point: closer Jhoan Duran, starter Joe Ryan and corner infielder Jose Miranda among them. Further cost certainty through extensions among that group or touted youngsters like Edouard Julien remain possible.

Looking to strictly the rotation, both Lopez and Ryan are now under club control through the 2027 season — which is slated to be Ryan’s final year of arbitration eligibility. Each of Sonny Gray, Tyler Mahle and Kenta Maeda will be up for free agency at the end of the current season, so it’s understandable that the Twins had extra incentive to lock up their top starter and lock in some additional continuity.

Minnesota also has towering 6’9″ righty Bailey Ober under club control through at least that same 2027 season, and while he opened the season in Triple-A St. Paul, his performance in the big leagues to date suggests he can be a part of that long-term starting staff (3.82 ERA, 24.3% strikeout rate, 5% walk rate in 148 1/3 innings). The aforementioned Paddack is signed through 2025 under the three-year, $12MM deal he signed while rehabbing from 2022 Tommy John surgery. Other in-house rotation options beyond the current campaign who’ve already had some big league seasoning include prospects Louie Varland, Simeon Woods Richardson and Josh Winder, though Winder’s frequent shoulder issues could eventually push him more toward to the bullpen.

Generally speaking, the Twins have shown increased willingness to spend in recent seasons, pushing their payroll up into the $150-160MM range in both 2022 and 2023. Assuming that’ll continue to be the norm in years to come, there’ll be plenty of room to supplement the core down the line. Lopez’s deal will likely land the Twins between $75-80MM in guaranteed money on the 2024 books, followed by something in the vicinity of $90-95MM in 2025 and around $70MM in both 2026-27 (depending on the extension’s exact year-to-year breakdown). The Twins aren’t and never have been at risk of paying the luxury tax, but they’ve also come quite a ways from their days as a perennial bottom-of-the-scale payroll club.

The trade bringing Lopez to Minnesota originally gave the Twins only two years of club control over Lopez, while Miami picked up three years of control over Arraez. The extension with Lopez more than balances out that disparity in club control, and it comes less than two years after the Twins begrudgingly made the decision to trade rotation stalwart Jose Berrios to Toronto after being unable to come to terms on an extension. Hindsight is always 20/20, but the seven-year extension Berrios inked with the Jays hasn’t panned out at all, and the Twins ultimately found their way to a prime-aged starter who was willing to commit to an extension on more favorable terms.

This surely isn’t exactly how they drew it up dating back to that pivotal trade deadline, but the Twins have added some long-term stability both in the lineup and in the rotation and done so without completely clogging the long-term payroll.

Craig Mish of SportsGrid and the Miami Herald first reported the sides were nearing agreement on a four-year, $73.5MM agreement. Dan Hayes of the Athletic reported the sides had agreed to terms.

Kenta Maeda Hit By Comebacker On Ankle, X-Rays Negative

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3:40pm: It seems like the worst-case scenario has been avoided, as Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports that the X-rays showed no breaks and that Maeda is walking around without the ankle even being wrapped up.

2:46pm: Twins righty Kenta Maeda departed today’s game after two innings upon being struck on the ankle by a comeback line drive off the bat of Red Sox outfielder Jarren Duran. Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press tweets that he’s undergoing x-rays.

Maeda was able to compose himself and remain upright long enough to gather the ball, make the throw to first base and record an out, but he dropped immediately after making the play. Twins trainers tended to Maeda thereafter, and he was eventually able to walk off the field with minimal assistance (video link).

The 35-year-old Maeda was making just his third start in his return from 2021 surgery to repair the ulnar collateral ligament in his pitching elbow. He’s been mostly sharp, posting a 4.15 ERA in 13 innings with a terrific 13-to-1 K/BB ratio (23.1 K%, 1.9 BB%). His fastball hasn’t quite been back to where it was in his Cy Young runner-up showing back in 2020 — sitting 91.8 mph then versus 90.4 mph now — but Maeda’s command has been strong.

Maeda’s start against the Red Sox came after just two innings today, which will leave a relatively taxed Twins bullpen to cover quite a bit of work. Long reliever Brent Headrick is unavailable after picking up a three-inning save in last night’s MLB debut, and the Twins used five relievers in an extra-inning affair the night prior. Emilio Pagan came on in relief of Maeda and immediately served up six runs on seven hits in his first frame, so Minnesota is surely reluctant to allocate many (or any) innings today to leverage relievers at this point. A position player could well end up taking some lumps on the mound today at some point.

If Maeda needs to miss any time, the Twins have a handful of already MLB-tested options in Triple-A St. Paul, led by right-hander Bailey Ober. He’s pitched to a 3.82 ERA in 31 starts for Minnesota over the past two seasons and is out to a strong start with the Saints in Triple-A this year, logging a 2.55 ERA through four starts. Other options include right-hander Louie Varland, who made a spot start for Maeda last week when the Twins skipped him in the rotation to afford him some early extra rest, and righty Simeon Woods Richardson, who made his MLB debut late in the 2022 season.

MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Shohei Ohtani, Julio Urias, Aaron Nola, Ian Happ, Juan Soto, Marcell Ozuna

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Episode 3 of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well; use this link to find the show on Spotify and this one for Apple. You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Simon Hampton is joined by MLBTR founder Tim Dierkes to discuss a wide range of topics around the baseball world:

  • We discuss Tim’s 2023-24 Free Agent Power Rankings article, including the contract Shohei Ohtani might command, as well as the markets for Aaron Nola and Julio Urias (3:26)
  • The Cubs and Ian Happ agree to a surprising three-year, $61MM extension. So did the player or the club get better value out of this deal? (18:41)
  • A busy week on the extension front includes the Twins agreeing to a four-year, $73.5MM contract with starter Pablo Lopez. We discuss the improvements Lopez has made this season and give our thoughts on the contract (23:04)

Plus, we answer your questions, including:

  • Why do the Giants only seem willing to spend money on position players, and not starting pitchers?  This question also includes our thoughts on the Logan Webb contract (26:59)
  • As Juan Soto gets off to a slow start in 2023, is there any hope for him to return to his 2021 numbers and what does this mean for extension talks? (31:24)
  • Are the Braves wasting a roster spot on Marcell Ozuna? (36:22)

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

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