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MLB Trade Rumors Podcast: Free Agent Pitching Dark Horses, Padres To Cut Payroll, and If The Angels Should Rebuild

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, pinch-hitting host Mark Polishuk is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

  • MLBTR continues previewing the free agent class, with a focus on which starters and relievers might be flying a bit under the radar as quality signings for 2024 (0:50)
  • The Padres are planning to reduce payroll next season, and could some broader front office changes also be coming? (11:00)
  • After another losing season and with the possible departure of Shohei Ohtani, would the Angels explore rebuilding (and trading Mike Trout) to get the franchise back on track? (15:06)

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

  • Will the Twins re-sign Sonny Gray or Tyler Mahle, and what kind of contracts could each pitcher land in free agency?(23:03)
  • Could the Braves’ pitching injuries short-circuit their postseason chances? (28:48)

Check out our past episodes!

  • Front Office Changes in Boston and New York, and the New Rays Stadium Agreement — listen here
  • Free Agent Class Preview: Catcher and First Base, Germán Márquez Extension and the Dodgers’ Rotation — listen here
  • Waiver Claim Fallout, September Call-Ups and the Biggest Strength of Each Playoff Contender — listen here

AL Injury Notes: Bautista, Mountcastle, Correa, McGuire, Sandoval

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Félix Bautista is inching closer to his return, but his status for the postseason remains up in the air. Manager Brandon Hyde recently spoke to reporters (including Nathan Ruiz of The Baltimore Sun) about his star closer, suggesting that the right-hander is running out of time to get back on the mound. It’s not that Bautista has suffered a setback, but he just hasn’t progressed quickly enough to give Hyde much confidence that he can return for the playoffs.

It’s a disappointing development for the Orioles, who are set to embark on their first postseason run since 2016. The 28-year-old has emerged as one of the most dominant relief arms in the game, with a 1.85 ERA across his first two seasons in the majors.

In happier news, Ryan Mountcastle is nearing his return to Baltimore’s lineup. As Ruiz reports, the first baseman took batting practice before this evening’s game against the Nationals. Hyde suggested he could be reinstated tomorrow; if not, he should be back on the field sometime this week.

Here’s some more news from around the American League…

  • The Twins expect Carlos Correa will be ready to play in the AL Wild Card series, and indeed, it’s possible he could be back by the final series of the regular season. Manager Rocco Baldelli told reporters (including Bobby Nightengale of the Star Tribune) that the star shortstop could rejoin the team this weekend in Colorado. Correa has been playing through plantar fasciitis for most of the year, and the question is not whether his injury has healed, but simply if he has rested enough to be able to manage the pain throughout the playoffs. The Gold Glove winner has been taking groundballs in recent days, and he claims to be feeling better.
  • Red Sox catcher Reese McGuire left tonight’s game against the Rays with a left thumb contusion. It’s not a particularly serious diagnosis, but still, it’s not impossible this marks the end of McGuire’s season. The lefty batter hit .271/.314/.365 in 69 games as a backup catcher for Boston. He will be arbitration-eligible for the second time this winter.
  • The Angels have placed starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval on the 15-day IL. To replace him on the active roster, they have recalled Kolton Ingram from Triple-A Salt Lake. Sandoval exited his start last night against the Rangers with tightness in his right oblique, and the injury has proven to be serious enough to end his season six days early. This marks Ingram’s third fleeting call-up of the 2023 season; in 4 1/3 innings for the big league club, he has given up five runs on seven hits. However, his numbers are much better in the minors, where the 26-year-old boasts a 2.95 ERA in 61 innings pitched.

Twins Activate Brock Stewart, Designate Dylan Floro For Assignment

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The Twins have designated relief pitcher Dylan Floro for assignment, the team revealed to reporters (including Betsy Helfand of the St. Paul Pioneer Press). They have reinstated fellow reliever Brock Stewart from the 60-day injured list to take his spot on the roster.

Floro joined the Twins just before the trade deadline, coming over from the Marlins in a one-for-one swap for Jorge López. Both pitchers were in the midst of disappointing seasons, and perhaps their new teams thought a change of scenery would do them some good. Suffice it to say, that hasn’t been the case for either one. Floro made 19 appearances for Minnesota, pitching to a 5.29 ERA. His underlying numbers were better (3.43 FIP, 3.70 SIERA), but still, he never looked like the shutdown reliever he was over the previous three seasons; from 2020-22, he posted a 2.85 ERA in 142 innings of work.

Meanwhile, López made 12 appearances for the Marlins, giving up 13 runs on 20 hits before his new club placed him on waivers. He was claimed by the Orioles, his former team, and has since pitched to a 6.10 ERA in 11 games. Overall, he has a 6.12 ERA and -1.0 FanGraphs WAR on the season.

The Twins will have to place Floro on waivers, and given how few days remain in the regular season (and his $3.9MM salary), it’s likely he goes unclaimed. He has enough service time to reject an outright assignment to the minor leagues, which would give him the chance to start his free agency a month early; after parts of eight MLB seasons, the veteran was set to hit the open market regardless. Considering his long track record of success before this difficult campaign, the 32-year-old righty should have no trouble finding a new club.

Stewart got off to a strong start in 2023, shining out of the bullpen in his first taste of MLB action since 2019. In 25 outings, he gave up just two earned runs, good for a 0.70 ERA. With a 97-mph fastball and four secondary pitches, he struck out more than 35% of the batters he faced, holding his opponents to a .172 batting average and a .230 wOBA.

In his last ten appearances before he landed on the IL, Stewart pitched 10 2/3 scoreless innings, striking out 18 and walking none. Unfortunately, at the end of June, he began to feel discomfort in his elbow – a particularly worrisome development for a pitcher who recently recovered from Tommy John surgery. He spent the next three months on the IL but thankfully managed to avoid another surgery.

As Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com reports, the 31-year-old is expected to pitch in this evening’s contest against the Athletics. The Twins, having already clinched their division, will spend the final six games of the season preparing their players for the postseason.

AL Central Notes: Francona, Twins, Tigers

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The first 20,000 fans in attendance at Wednesday’s Guardians home game against the Reds will receive “Thank You, Tito” t-shirts, to commemorate what is very likely Terry Francona’s final home game as the Guards’ manager.  It isn’t much of a secret that Francona is planning to retire after the season, though he has stopped short of making an official announcement since “he would rather execute an Irish exit than attract one extra iota of attention,” the Athletic’s Zack Meisel writes.  Meisel’s piece is an excellent profile of Francona’s long career as a manager, coach, and player, providing plenty of insight and colorful anecdotes into one of baseball’s greatest skippers.

Here’s more from around the AL Central…

  • The Twins will use Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray (in an order to be determined) as the starters of their first two playoff games, manager Rocco Baldelli told The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman and other reporters.  Baldelli didn’t confirm any of Minnesota’s other pitching plans for October, but in implying that Kenta Maeda will be working as a reliever during the postseason, that would seem to set up Joe Ryan as the team’s top choice as a third starter.  Ryan has a 3.82 ERA over 30 2/3 innings since returning from the injured list, as trying to pitch through a groin strain contributed to some very shaky numbers for Ryan in midseason after an outstanding April and May.  Maeda has had a strong season in his own right and hasn’t worked as a reliever since 2019, but his usage out of the bullpen gives the Twins a potential impact reliever for their playoff run.
  • Tigers prospect Jace Jung has played only second base and DH during his two pro seasons, but he’ll now be getting some looks as a third baseman in the Arizona Fall League, Lynn Henning of the Detroit News writes.  Both MLB Pipeline (67th) and Baseball America (98th) rank Jung among the top 100 prospects in baseball, though both outlets have concerns about his eventual defensive future, as second base was seen as a less-challenging spot for Jung than the hot corner.  However, an even more highly-touted Detroit prospect faces similar defensive questions, as Colt Keith (18th BA, 25th Pipeline) looks ticketed for second base duty.  Keith gets the priority because he has posted big numbers at Triple-A this second and could factor into Detroit’s lineup as early as Opening Day 2024, while Jung might need more time to get acclimated at his new position and has yet to reach Triple-A.  Keith and Jung are two of several intriguing position-player prospects coming up the ranks in the Tigers’ farm system, to the point that Henning feels a possible logjam for future playing time gives the Tigers a good problem to have in figuring out who plays where, and ultimately might players might be kept or used as trade chips.

AL Central Notes: Paddack, Perez, Scholtens, Guardians

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After a long recovery from Tommy John surgery, Chris Paddack was activated from the Twins’ 60-day injured list today and was ready to appear in his first big league game since May 8, 2022.  Technically, Paddack did “appear,” though he didn’t actually play.  Paddack entered today’s game out of the bullpen prior to the start of the seventh inning, but as he was warming up on the mound, a rain delay halted the action for 50 minutes.  As a result, Minnesota brought Louie Varland in to pitch once play resumed, leaving Paddack credited in the official box score with a rare appearance of zero innings pitched and zero batters faced.  While it makes for a quirky bit of trivia for Paddack, the righty will probably appreciate it more once he gets a chance to properly complete his comeback with a real pitching appearance, which could happen as early as Tuesday when the AL Central champion Twins begin a series with the Athletics.

Some more from around the AL Central….

  • The Royals activated Salvador Perez from the concussion-related injury list today, as the veteran catcher returned free of symptoms after the minimum seven days.  Perez returns for a few more games to complete his 13th Major League season, and even after hitting a homer in today’s 6-5 Kansas City win over the Astros, it has been a tough year for the backstop.  Beyond the Royals’ struggles, Perez has had a down year at the plate, hitting .252/.291/.419 with 22 homers over 555 plate appearances.
  • Prior to today’s rain-shortened 3-2 victory over the Red Sox, the White Sox placed right-hander Jesse Scholtens on the 15-day injured list due to a left calf strain, and called righty Declan Cronin up from Triple-A.  The injury officially ends Scholtens’ first MLB season, as he started 11 of 26 games for Chicago after debuting on April 7 and posted a 5.29 ERA, 15.4% strikeout rate and eight percent walk rate.  The White Sox moved Scholtens up and down from Triple-A on a few occasions, using him primarily as a reliever before giving him a longer look as a starter over the last couple of months.
  • While Terry Francona and the Guardians have stopped short of making it entirely official, all signs are pointing to Francona retiring at the end of the 2023 season.  As the winningest manager in franchise history, Francona leaves a high bar for the Guards’ next skipper to reach, and Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer writes that the club is planning “a wide-ranging managerial search.”  The implication seems to be that the Guardians will look outside the organization for the new hire, though Hoynes pushes back against the perception that the front office is aiming to take a fuller control of in-game duties in the name of analytics.  “It would be a mistake to think the next manager will be a human computer/yes man,” Hoynes writes, noting that the front office “want someone who will challenge them, someone they can learn from” as they have during Francona’s 11 seasons in Cleveland.

Twins Activate Chris Paddack

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The Twins announced this morning that the club had activated right-hander Chris Paddack from the 60-day IL. Left-hander Jovani Moran was recalled and placed on the 60-day IL to make way for Paddack on the 40-man roster, while right-hander Josh Winder was optioned to Triple-A to clear space on the active roster.

Paddack, 27, is returning from the second Tommy John surgery of his career. An eighth-round pick by the Marlins in the 2015 draft, he was shipped to the Padres in exchange for closer Fernando Rodney just one year later. Paddack eventually made his big league debut in 2019 and made a strong impression during his rookie campaign. The youngster posted a 3.33 ERA across 140 2/3 innings of work with a 26.9% strikeout rate against a walk rate of just 5.5%. Things took a turn for a worse during the shortened 2020 season, however, as his ERA shot up to 4.73 across 12 starts, thanks in large part to an unbelievable 25% of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs.

While Paddack’s home run rate came back down to Earth in 2021, his results remained less than stellar. His 5.07 ERA was 23% worse than league average by measure of ERA+, and while his career-best 3.78 FIP and a career-low 60.7% strand rate indicated that misfortune could be plaguing Paddack, the righty’s strikeout rate had dipped to just 21.6%, a far cry from the highs of his rookie season. Paddack also dealt with injuries throughout the 2021 campaign, with three trips to the injured list costing him a total of two months.

The struggles led the Padres to move on from Paddack, shipping him to Minnesota ahead of the 2022 season alongside right-hander Emilio Pagan in exchange for lefty Taylor Rogers and outfielder Brent Rooker. Paddack looked to have better days on the horizon through five starts with his new club, as he posted a 4.03 ERA and 3.18 FIP across 22 1/3 innings of work. Unfortunately for both Paddack and the Twins, the righty would subsequently require surgery that would wipe out the remainder of his 2022 season and the entire 2023 campaign to this point. Of course, the injury woes didn’t stop the sides from coming together on a three-year pact this offseason that bought out what otherwise would have been his first free agent year.

Now back on the mound in the big leagues, Paddack is expected to work out of the bullpen for the Twins down the stretch and into the postseason, though after stretching out to 60 pitches in the minors, it’s certainly plausible that he could provide Minnesota with rotation depth or a piggyback starter in the playoffs, should the club wind up in a pinch at some point. Looking ahead to 2024, Paddack seems poised to be in the mix for the club’s rotation alongside Pablo Lopez, Bailey Ober, and Joe Ryan following the impending departures of Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda via free agency.

Moran, 26, posted a 5.31 ERA in 42 1/3 innings of work for the Twins this season but hasn’t appeared in the majors since early August. He was placed on the IL in the minor leagues at the end of August with a forearm strain, and evidently will not pitch again this season. As for Winder, the righty has posted a solid 4.15 ERA in 34 2/3 innings of work as a long reliever for the Twins this year, his first since converting to the bullpen full time. He could provide the Twins with starting depth throughout their postseason run, but won’t be eligible to return to the regular season roster this year unless he replaces an injured player.

AL Central Notes: Keller, Paddack, Allen

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Royals right-hander Brad Keller spent most of the 2023 campaign on the injured list due to a right shoulder impingement, and though he was activated briefly early this month, he quickly found himself back on the shelf due to what the club described as “symptoms associated with thoracic outlet syndrome.” His placement back on the IL had already ended his 2023 season, but manager Matt Quatraro told reporters (including Jaylon T. Thompson of the Kansas City Star) that Keller has indeed been diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. Quatraro added that Keller has not yet decided a course of action regarding his injury and figures to decide in the coming days about his path forward.

It’s brutal news for Keller, who is poised to depart the Royals for free agency once the 2023 season comes to a close. Keller looked to be a quality mid-rotation starter in the early seasons of his career, posting a 3.50 ERA and 3.90 FIP in 360 1/3 innings of work between 2018 and 2020. Unfortunately, he’s suffered a significant downturn in production since then, with a 5.14 ERA and 4.80 FIP across 314 2/3 innings since the start of the 2021 campaign. In that time, Keller’s walk rate crept up to 11.5%, well above the 9.1% figure he posted in the first three seasons of his career. While Keller was striking out more batters as well, it wasn’t enough to compensate for the additional walks, to say nothing of a sustained spike in the percentage of his fly balls leaving the yard for home runs in recent years. After posting an HR/FB of just 8% in the first three years of his career, that number spiked to 13% the last three seasons.

With less than two months until free agency figures to open, Keller faces a significant degree of uncertainty about the future of his career after spending his entire major league career to this point with the Royals. Surgery to correct TOS has rarely seen players return to the majors and enjoy success, with Stephen Strasburg and Chris Archer among the arms who have seen their careers impacted by the procedure in recent years. One example of a player who has returned effectively is Arizona right-hander Merrill Kelly, who stands as a prime example of the fact that not all types of TOS have the same long-term outlook.

More from around the AL Central…

  • The Twins could welcome right-hander Chris Paddack back to the major league roster as soon as tomorrow, according to Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Paddack, 27, has been on the IL since last spring after undergoing Tommy John surgery, but has long been been considered a possible late-season option for Minnesota’s pitching staff. It seems that possibility is on the verge of coming to fruition, with The Athletic’s Aaron Gleeman noting that Paddack is expected to contribute as a reliever out of the bullpen rather than a member of the rotation upon being activated. Paddack looked impressive in his most recent rehab outing at Triple-A, where the righty struck out five on two hits and a walk across three scoreless innings of work.
  • The Guardians have placed left-hander Logan Allen on the 15-day injured list with left shoulder inflammation, per MLB.com’s Mandy Bell. The move brings an end to Allen’s rookie season. It was an impressive start to the young southpaw’s career, as he posted a solid 3.81 ERA (110 ERA+) with a 4.20 FIP across 24 starts with the Guardians this year. Allen and fellow rookies Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams are the latest young arms to slide into the club’s rotation from their farm system, and figure to join more established arms like Shane Bieber and Triston McKenzie as quality rotation options as Cleveland looks ahead to the 2024 campaign.

Twins Place Royce Lewis On IL With Hamstring Strain

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The Twins announced that infielder Royce Lewis has been placed on the 10-day injured list, retroactive to September 21, due to a left hamstring strain. Outfielder/first baseman Jordan Luplow was recalled in a corresponding move.

Lewis, 24, has had a stop-and-start career to this point, flashing incredible talent in between injury absences. The former first overall pick underwent surgery for a torn ACL in his right knee last year, the second time he’s endured that awful injury, and missed the first couple of months of this season. He returned in late May and had about a month on the active roster before returning to the IL due to an oblique strain. He was activated in mid-August but is now back on the IL yet again, this time due to the hamstring issue.

Around those various injuries, the results have been excellent. He has hit .309/.372/.548 in 239 plate appearances this year for a wRC+ of 154, indicating he’s been 54% better than the league average hitter. He’s also stolen six bases and been given solid grades for his third base defense.

The Twins are 8.5 games up on the Guardians and nine games ahead of the Tigers in the Central, making them a virtual lock to win the division. Since they are cruising towards a postseason berth, it seems they are trying to rest up some of their key contributors for their eventual postseason appearance. In addition to Lewis, shortstop Carlos Correa was also placed on the injured list this week, with plantar fasciitis being the culprit in his case. Both players have enough time to be eligible to return for the playoffs, hopefully with their respective health conditions improved. Byron Buxton and Joey Gallo are also X-factors, with both players currently on rehab assignments.

As for Luplow, it was announced by the club earlier this week that he had been designated for assignment to open an active roster spot for Michael A. Taylor to be reinstated from the IL. However, MLBTR’s Steve Adams reports that Luplow wound up optioned instead. As a player with more than five years of service time, he had to consent to the option and did. It seems he hung onto his 40-man roster spot, allowing him to be recalled today.

Byron Buxton To Begin Rehab Assignment

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Byron Buxton will begin a rehab stint at Triple-A St. Paul tomorrow, the Twins announced (relayed by Dan Hayes of the Athletic). He’ll start out as a designated hitter.

Buxton hasn’t played in an MLB game since he was placed on the injured list on August 4. While that stay on the shelf was related to a hamstring strain, soreness in his right knee has been the more pressing concern. Knee issues had kept Buxton from playing defense at any point this season. He got a start in center field when he began a rehab assignment at St. Paul three weeks ago, but he was quickly pulled off that stint when the knee flared back up.

The Twins should officially sew up the AL Central title by this weekend. They would clinch on tomorrow’s off day if both Detroit and Cleveland lose. They’re unlikely to track down the AL West winner to secure a first-round bye, so it’s highly likely they’ll go into October as the #3 seed in the American League. That leaves them a little under two weeks to sort things out for the postseason.

Minnesota is giving Carlos Correa at least a week and a half on the injured list to rest his left foot after playing through plantar fasciitis for the bulk of the season. They’ll now get another look at Buxton as he works to get to game readiness before the playoffs. While there are only four games remaining on the Triple-A schedule, Buxton could shake off more rust in low-leverage MLB contests during the final week of the regular season.

It isn’t clear whether that’ll include more action in the outfield. Manager Rocco Baldelli has previously left open the possibility of trying Buxton back in center field after the break in his rehab stint.

When healthy, Buxton is among the best defensive outfielders in the game. With the knee issue robbing him of that aspect this season, he’s having a down year. Buxton is hitting .207/.294/.438 with 17 home runs across 347 plate appearances. That’s middling production for a strict DH. Edouard Julien, who has been Minnesota’s primary DH with Buxton out, carries a .268/.378/.458 line over 371 trips in his rookie campaign. If the Twins have a fully healthy infield of Alex Kirilloff, Jorge Polanco, Correa and Royce Lewis for the postseason (Lewis is day-to-day with hamstring soreness), the Twins could consider Julien their top DH option.

Twins Place Carlos Correa On Injured List

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10:17am: Bench coach/interim manager Jayce Tingler (Rocco Baldelli is away from the club after his wife recently gave birth — to twins, no less) and head trainer Nick Paparesta told reporters that they’re confident Correa will be ready for the beginning of the postseason (via Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star Tribune). Lewis, meanwhile, will undergo an MRI on his hamstring when the team returns to Minnesota this weekend (via Dan Hayes of The Athletic).

9:47am: The Twins announced Wednesday that they’ve placed shortstop Carlos Correa on the 10-day injured list. Correa was diagnosed with plantar fasciitis in his left foot back in May and has been playing through the injury throughout the 2023 season. It flared up earlier this week and forced him from Monday’s game in Cincinnati. He’ll be sidelined through at least next Friday now. Outfielder Trevor Larnach is up from Triple-A St. Paul to take his spot on the active roster.

Correa, 28, hit .291/.366/.467 in his first season with the Twins last year but has seen his production dip to .230/.312/.399 in 2023 while playing through that ailment. He’s still played strong defense at shortstop, and that batting line is “only” about four percent shy of league average, by measure of wRC+, but Minnesota clearly had higher hopes for the former Platinum Glove winner and two-time All-Star when signing him to a six-year, $200MM contract over the winter. Notably, the plantar fasciitis is in Correa’s left foot, which is not the same foot/leg that sparked the considerable offseason drama, led to multiple failed physicals, and eventually paved the way for his return to the Twins.

The timing of the injury is clearly unfortunate for the Twins, who are closing in on formally securing the American League Central title and punching their postseason ticket. There’s still time for Correa to be back with the club several days prior to the beginning of the playoffs, and that’ll be the team’s hope — particularly since Correa had been trending up at the dish. Correa had perhaps his worst month of the season in August but is batting .296/.377/.463 (136 wRC+) since the calendar flipped to September.

Minnesota’s injury woes don’t end there, however. The Twins saw breakout rookie Royce Lewis exit yesterday’s game with discomfort in his left hamstring. The 24-year-old former No. 1 overall pick hobbled a bit after trying to beat a grounder, and he exited the game during his next plate appearance after tweaking something on a foul ball swing (link via MLB.com’s Do-Hyoung Park).

To this point, there’s no indication Lewis will require a trip to the injured list, though the Twins will surely exercise caution. The longtime top prospect returned from his second ACL tear in as many years this season and has been among the best hitters in the American League when healthy, batting .309/.372/.548 with 15 home runs in 239 plate appearances. Lewis has seized the everyday job at third base and shown a flair for the dramatic, recently connecting on his fourth grand slam in a span of just three weeks.

Not coincidentally, a Minnesota lineup that has struggled with inconsistency throughout the season has done its best work in September, with both Lewis and Correa performing at high levels. The Twins are averaging 4.7 runs per game on the year but are tied with the Orioles for the MLB lead with 112 runs in 18 games this month (6.2 runs per game). With Correa sidelined and Lewis banged up, the Twins will likely turn to Kyle Farmer and Willi Castro at shortstop. Both players are options at third base as well, as is veteran Donovan Solano (who’s spent more time at first base this year).

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