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Dodgers, Twins To Swap Brock Stewart For James Outman

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The Dodgers and Twins are reportedly in agreement on a one-for-one swap of reliever Brock Stewart for center fielder James Outman. Both players are on the 40-man roster, so there won’t need to be any corresponding transactions.

Stewart hasn’t gotten as much attention as former teammates Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax at the back of Minnesota’s bullpen. He’s a strong late-game weapon in his own right. As with most Dodger pitching targets, he’s very effective on a rate basis but comes with significant durability questions. Stewart is healthy at the moment, and his presence should be a major boost to a floundering L.A. relief group.

The 6’3″ Stewart has fired 34 innings of 2.38 ERA ball on the year. He has struck out almost 30% of batters faced behind an excellent 14.7% swinging strike rate. He pairs that with a league average 7.9% walk rate and has done a good job avoiding hard contact. Stewart leads a five-pitch mix with a 96 MPH fastball and gets big swing-and-miss numbers on both his sweeper and changeup.

It’s a back-end profile. Stewart has picked up 14 holds and only blown one lead all season. Minnesota skipper Rocco Baldelli has used him behind only Duran and Jax on their leverage hierarchy over the past month. This is the second time in the past three years in which Stewart has been an underrated bullpen weapon. He posted a 0.95 ERA with a near-36% strikeout rate in 28 appearances two seasons back.

Health is the drawback. Stewart has appeared in parts of seven MLB seasons. He has never reached 40 innings. He’ll establish a new career-high workload in his first appearance after the trade. Stewart began his career with the Dodgers as a 2014 sixth-round pick. He logged parts of four seasons as a swingman before being lost on waivers to Toronto in 2019. He was out of MLB entirely over the next three seasons, largely because of 2021 Tommy John surgery.

Stewart reemerged with Minnesota in 2023. He was suddenly sitting around 97 MPH after working in the 91-94 range before the surgery. Stewart dominated for a couple months until experiencing renewed elbow discomfort that shut him down in late June. Last season, he was limited to 18 appearances by shoulder problems that necessitated arthroscopic surgery in August. He has been healthy this year aside from a brief season-opening IL stint related to a left hamstring strain.

The atypical career arc and lack of volume have tamped down Stewart’s earning power. He’s playing on an $870K salary that is barely above the league minimum. Stewart will go through arbitration twice more and won’t hit free agency until the end of his age-35 season. While the affordability meant that the Twins didn’t need to trade him, they also presumably felt this was the peak of his value. Stewart’s age and injury history meant there’d be real risk in holding onto him and hoping he’d remain this effective going into 2026.

It’s the first of what should be multiple bullpen acquisitions for Los Angeles. Dodger relievers rank 22nd in MLB with a 4.24 earned run average. They’re top 10 in strikeout rate but have not been as strong as expected. Tanner Scott has been wobbly and is now battling elbow inflammation. Kirby Yates has a 4.31 ERA despite excellent strikeout and walk numbers. Evan Phillips is done for the year. Michael Kopech and Brusdar Graterol could make late-season returns but have notable injury concerns.

While Stewart himself is far from a sure thing to stay healthy, he’s a nice get for a player whose hold on a roster spot seemed tenuous. The 28-year-old Outman hit 23 home runs and finished third in NL Rookie of the Year balloting two seasons ago. That came with a concerning level of swing-and-miss, however, and he hasn’t come close to that kind of production over the past couple years. Outman fanned at a 35% clip while hitting .147 in 53 big league contests last season. He’s batting .103 with 18 strikeouts in 44 trips to the plate this year.

Outman has remained productive against minor league pitching. He’s hitting .289/.378/.592 with 20 homers and 14 stolen bases in 70 Triple-A games this season. His .286/.386/.585 batting line over parts of three season there is strong even in the context of the Pacific Coast League. Outman’s production still comes with significant strikeout caveats. He’s a plus runner and defensive center fielder who doesn’t need to hit a ton to be a fourth or fifth outfielder. He’ll nevertheless obviously need to produce more than the .137/.245/.269 slash that he has managed at the MLB level over the past two seasons.

This is Outman’s final minor league option year. He can back up Byron Buxton in center or spend the remainder of the season at Triple-A St. Paul. The Twins would need to decide whether to carry him on the Opening Day roster next season or expose him to waivers.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Dodgers were nearing a deal for Stewart. Alden González of ESPN reported Outman was going back, while Bobby Nightengale of The Minnesota Star-Tribune confirmed it was one for one.

Images courtesy of Matt Krohn and Patrick Gorski, Imagn Images.

Phillies Acquire Harrison Bader

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The Phillies announced the acquisition of outfielder Harrison Bader from the Twins. Minnesota receives two prospects: outfielder Hendry Mendez and right-hander Geremy Villoria. Philadelphia designated reliever Brett de Geus for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot.

Bader, 31, has been a solid big leaguer for years. He is one of the best outfield defenders in the league, with career tallies of 63 Defensive Runs Saved and 76 Outs Above Average. That DRS total is fifth-best among outfielders since the start of 2017, while the OAA total tops the leaderboard.

His offense has been up-and-down but he’s currently on pace to have his best season at the plate. In 307 plate appearances, he already has 12 home runs. Only once in his career has he hit more than that, which was the 16 he hit in 2021. His 26.4% strikeout rate is a bit high but his 8.8% walk rate is his best mark in years.

On the whole, he has a .258/.339/.439 line this year. His 117 wRC+, a career high, indicates he has been 17% better than league average at the plate this year. Thanks to ten stolen bases and some quality glovework, he’s already been worth 2.0 wins above replacement on the year, in the eyes of FanGraphs.

The Twins have pivoted to sell mode recently. They are 51-57 and 5.5 games out of a playoff spot. This the second deal they have lined up with the Phillies, as they already sent Jhoan Durán to Philadelphia. They also traded Chris Paddack to the Tigers and Brock Stewart to the Dodgers.

Bader has long been seen as likely to go, since he’s an impending free agent. He signed a one-year, $6.25MM deal with the Twins in the offseason. That guarantee came in the form of a $750K signing bonus, a $4MM salary, and a $1.5MM buyout on a mutual option. Mutual options are essentially never picked up by both sides, which is why Bader has been viewed as a rental. His buyout can also increase via plate appearance incentives. He would add $200K at 400, 425 and 450 plate appearances, then $450K at 475 and 500. As mentioned, he’s currently at 307 plate appearances.

His deal also has a $500K assignment bonus if he’s traded. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune, the Twins aren’t including any money in this deal, so it seems the Phils will take on the remaining salary and the buyout on the option. There’s about $1.3MM of salary left. The buyout, as mentioned, is $1.5MM but can increase.

Money aside, Bader is a great fit for the Phillies. They have been looking for outfield help and right-handed bat. Bader ticks both boxes. Nick Castellanos is cemented in right, but he’s a league-average bat with horrible defensive metrics. Johan Rojas is the opposite, as he’s a great defender who doesn’t hit. Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler are a bit less extreme. They’re both good defenders in a corner but a bit stretched in center. They both can hit but are left-handed hitters who do more damage with the platoon advantage. Kepler is also now battling a triceps injury, per Lochlahn March of the Philadelphia Inquirer.

Bader has largely been playing left field for the Twins out of deference to Byron Buxton. He should be able to pivot back to center for the Phils. That should allow for Rojas, Kepler and Marsh to all be used more selectively. Bader has pretty even platoon splits this year but his career splits are more extreme, with a .248/.315/.461 line versus lefties and a .242/.307/.374 slash against righties. Kepler recently expressed some dissatisfaction with being platooned but he hasn’t helped his cause with a .196/.250/.314 line against southpaws this year.

Mendez, 21, was originally a Brewers prospect. He came to the Phils in a November 2023 trade which sent infielder Oliver Dunn to the Brewers. Dunn was a minor league Rule 5 pick out of the Yankees’ system, making a fairly unusual trade tree for this move.

Since Mendez has come over the Phils, he’s been great at the plate. He spent last year at High-A and has been at Double-A this year. He has stepped to the plate 722 times in those two seasons with a 12.7% walk rate, 13.3% strikeout rate, .287/.380/.412 batting line and 131 wRC+. Baseball America lists him as the #17 prospect in the system. Their report notes that he hits the ball incredibly hard but too often into the ground. He’s not considered a strong outfield defender, so his development as a hitter will be key.

He is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter. Perhaps the Phils weren’t going to add him to their 40-man roster or were on the fence about it. The Twins will need to add him this fall if they don’t want him to be exposed.

Villoria, 16, was an international signing of the Phils out of Venezuela. He just signed with the Phils this year out of for a $425K bonus and has 14 professional innings under his belt in the Dominican Summer League. His youth and inexperience naturally make him a long-term play. Baseball America notes that he can already get up to the mid-90s with his fastball and he also has a high-spin slider as well as a changeup.

For the Phils, they’re adding a bit of money to their books but they’re usually not afraid to do that and they’ve clearly got a foot on the gas pedal here. Their core players are mostly in their mid-30s, so they made a bold strike by giving up notable prospects in the Durán deal. Here, they’ve given up a few prospects but not top guys.

They are a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and over the top tier, meaning they will face a 110% tax rate on Bader’s remaining salary and the buyout. Between the salary and buyout, he’s owed at least $2.8MM, so the Phils will also have to pay over $3MM in taxes on that.

For the Twins, they add a couple of extra prospects from a player who was set to depart in free agency anyway. It’s possible that saving money is a goal for them this week. They could have included money here to ask for a greater prospect return but didn’t do so. They also included Randy Dobnak’s contract in the Paddack deal, seemingly to save a few million bucks. They could still move Willi Castro, Danny Coulombe, Ty France and Christian Vázquez before the day is done, as they are all impending free agents. If they’re willing to move another controllable player like they did in the Duran deal, Griffin Jax could be on the move as well.

Teams like the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers were also connected to Bader in recent weeks. Those teams could pivot to guys like Steven Kwan, Luis Robert Jr., Cedric Mullins and/or Ramón Laureano, who are thought to be available today.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Phillies were closing in on a Bader deal for an outfield and pitching prospect. Matt Gelb of The Athletic had the return.

Photo courtesy of Matt Blewett, Jordan Johnson, Imagn Images

Astros Interested In Carlos Correa Reunion

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July 31: Nightengale reports that the talks between the two clubs are “all but dead,” adding that Houston asked Minnesota to pay “about $50MM” of the $102.5MM remaining in Correa’s contract and also asked for an outfielder to be included in the deal. Nightengale adds that the Twins rejected that offer and “aren’t budging” from that position. Rome reports (alongside The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal) that talks between the sides have continued despite both sides downplaying the likelihood of a trade.

July 30, 12:37pm: The Astros approached the Twins about the possibility, Chandler Rome and Dan Hayes of The Athletic report. Astros owner Jim Crane has “remained a fan” of Correa since his departure, they note, adding that the Twins believe Houston is perhaps the only destination to which Correa would green-light a trade. Nightengale adds that Correa indeed would be open to returning to Houston and playing third base there. That said, Hayes and Rome echo Passan in writing that the two sides are far apart and a deal is not at all close.

12:07pm: The Twins and Astros have indeed talked about the possibility of a Correa trade but aren’t close to an agreement, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.

9:52am: As the Astros seek help in the infield following injuries to Isaac Paredes and Jeremy Pena, they’ve looked into the possibility of bringing Carlos Correa back to Houston, as first reported by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale. Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that the two parties have had discussions on the possibility. MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart adds that Houston’s interest “is real.” Nightengale adds that Houston remains interested in Eugenio Suárez as well and has at least weighed the possibility of another run at Nolan Arenado.

The Correa scenario presents a fascinating, if unexpected wrinkle to this summer’s deadline market. In the offseason, Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey downplayed the possibility of trading his shortstop, and Correa himself voiced an affinity for Minnesota when asked about his no-trade clause at the time.

It’s fair to wonder whether either party’s stance has changed. The Twins have struggled through a sub-.500 four months of baseball and have minimal hope of reaching the postseason. The Pohlad family is exploring a sale of the team, and while that was true over the winter as well, the former front-runner to purchase the Twins, Justin Ishbia, has since instead reached a long-term agreement to become the majority stakeholder in the White Sox (where he was already a minority owner). On Correa’s end of things, returning to his original organization and jumping back into a playoff race would presumably be appealing.

Correa is still owed significant money. He signed a six-year, $200MM deal with four vesting options prior to the 2023 season. He’ll make a combined $92MM from 2026-28 and also still has about $11.6MM of this year’s salary yet to be paid out. The Twins would almost certainly have to pay down a portion of the contract to make a deal work.

Even if Minnesota did so, however, adding Correa back to the roster in Houston would send the Astros soaring past the luxury tax threshold. They’re currently about $4.5MM shy of that barrier, per RosterResource. Owner Jim Crane was steadfastly against exceeding the tax threshold in the offseason — at least in most scenarios. His lone exception, it seemed, would have been for a reunion with Alex Bregman. Whether Crane is feeling more urgency due to Houston’s litany of injuries or simply harbors some sentimentality for another former Astros star, one has to imagine he’s grown more comfortable crossing the tax threshold.

That Correa is in the midst of a sub-par season only further muddies the water. The 30-year-old hit brilliantly for the Twins last year in an injury-shortened campaign, batting .310/.388/.517 with his typical brand of strong defense at shortstop. He’s rebounded from a poor start in 2025 to an extent, but Correa’s .267/.319/.386 slash is slightly under league average (97 wRC+). Over his past 274 plate appearances, Correa is hitting .300 with a .350 on-base percentage but just a .423 slugging percentage. His power is down substantially this season, in part because his ground-ball rate has spiked to a 48.5% — its highest level in five years.

A renewed run at Arenado would register as something of a surprise. Arenado invoked his no-trade clause to nix a trade to Houston over the winter. Now that the Astros are in first place, he’d likely be more open to a move there. However, he’s in the midst of a third straight down year at the plate and is still owed substantial money.

Arenado, 34, is hitting a career-worst .235/.295/.367 in 390 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, he’s been 16% worse than average at the plate. He remains a strong defensive third baseman but no longer draws top-of-the-scale grades from defensive metrics. He’s earning $32MM this year, $27MM next year and $15MM in 2027. It’s a steep price to pay for a former All-Star whose bat is has been on the downswing for several years now. The Cardinals would need to eat a major portion of the contract, but there’s still enough left on the deal that Arenado, too, would surely put Houston over the luxury threshold.

Suárez, owed $4.8MM for the remainder of the season, might not quite put the Astros over that edge, though the Diamondbacks could always include some cash to coax a more favorable return. The bidding on the 34-year-old slugger will be fierce, however, and Houston’s farm system is not as well regarded as some of the other teams who’ll be vying for Suárez and his 36 home runs. The Mariners, Cubs, Tigers, Phillies and Reds are among the teams also pursuing him.

Paredes could miss the remainder of the season — Nightengale notes that surgery is a consideration — but he’s controlled for an additional two years. Pena is on the mend from fractured ribs but is also controlled through 2027. Given the Astros’ multiple years of control over the left side of their infield, Suárez represents a cleaner fit than either Correa or Arenado. Paredes could slide over to second base in subsequent seasons if the Astros wind up with a new infielder who’s signed beyond the current season, but he’s played the vast majority of his career at third base.

Correa’s name hasn’t come up until this point, but the Twins are expected to be active sellers over the next two days. Righty Chris Paddack was already moved to the Tigers, and rental players like Willi Castro, Harrison Bader and Danny Coulombe are all expected to change hands as well. The more interesting element is whether the Twins will cave and trade anyone controlled longer-term. Relievers Jhoan Duran and Griffin Jax have been two of the most sought-after names on the bullpen market, and any contending team would love to add righty Joe Ryan to its rotation. All three are controlled through 2027, however. Add in the new possibility of a Correa deal, and there’s plenty for the Minnesota front office to do over the next day and a half.

Latest On Twins’ Deadline Plans

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The Twins have already moved Chris Paddack and Jhoan Duran, but they’re expected to remain active on the selling front right up until this afternoon’s deadline. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reports that as of last night, Minnesota was far more focused on negotiations pertaining to relievers Danny Coulombe and Brock Stewart than on anything involving top starter Joe Ryan, who still seems like a long shot to move. Meanwhile, Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports that the Twins have had about six clubs looking into utilityman Willi Castro and haven’t ruled out trading righty Griffin Jax even after moving Duran — but the price remains extremely high.

Coulombe is one of the most straightforward trade candidates on the market. He’s a rental reliever on a clear seller who’s having a terrific season while playing on a low-cost contract. He signed a one-year, $3MM deal to return to the Twins in the offseason and has rewarded that investment with a 1.16 ERA, 25.4% strikeout rate and 7.4% walk rate in 31 innings. He’s thrived versus lefties and righties alike. It’d be a surprise if Coulombe somehow wasn’t traded before today’s deadline.

Stewart, 33, isn’t necessarily as likely to go but could have some sneaky value. He’s 33 years old and has had plenty of injury concerns in his career, including Tommy John surgery while with the Dodgers and shoulder surgery with the Twins just last year.

That said, when Stewart has been healthy in Minnesota, he’s been excellent. He’s pitched 77 1/3 innings since landing with the Twins on a minor league deal in the 2022-23 offseason, and in that time he’s posted a 2.33 ERA with a huge 31.7% strikeout rate and a 9.5% walk rate. Stewart is sitting 96.1 mph on his four-seamer this year and has run his heater up to 100 mph at times. He’s sporting an outstanding 15.1% swinging-strike rate and has a massive 16.5% mark over the past three seasons combined.

The Twins don’t need to move Stewart, who’s earning just $870K this year and has two seasons of club control remaining. However, as a reliever in his mid-30s who was originally added on a minor league deal, there’s a bit of a “found money” aspect to the hard-throwing righty. His lengthy history of arm troubles also surely has to tempt the Twins to sell high right now, while he’s performing well. Stewart isn’t going to garner headlines like Duran, Jax and other controllable arms on the relief market (e.g. David Bednar, Mason Miller), but he’s quietly posted high-end results at near league-minimum salary.

Castro feels like another surefire trade candidate today. Like Coulombe and Stewart, he was originally signed by the Twins on a minor league deal before revitalizing his career in Minnesota. He’s hitting .245/.335/.407 with 10 homers and nine steals in 344 plate appearances on the season and has slashed .250/.335/.398 in his three years as a Twin.

The switch-hitting Castro is earning $6.4MM in 2025 and is a free agent at season’s end. He’s a 28-year-old with average power and above-average speed who can handle just about any position on the field. He’s played second base, third base, shortstop and all three outfield spots in 2025, though he’s stretched defensively at shortstop or in center field and is more of a backup option than a candidate for regular playing time at those positions. Given his versatility, Castro would deepen any contending club’s bench, and he’d be a starting option for several playoff contenders. The Mariners, Yankees and Astros have all shown interest this month, though the first two of those teams have obviously added some new infield options already, which could impact their current level of interest in Castro.

With Duran out the door and Coulombe and Stewart possibly following him, a trade of Jax would really deplete the Twins’ bullpen. The Twins will remain open to the idea, it seems, but they’re not likely to deviate from their asking price. They’ve been seeking multiple top-100 prospects for both Duran and Jax. They secured a strong return for Duran (catching prospect Eduardo Tait and MLB-ready starter Mick Abel) and will hold out for the same with regard to Jax.

The 31-year-old Jax is a former third-round pick. A look at his 4.50 ERA isn’t going to turn any heads, but the right-hander posted a 2.03 ERA last season and misses bats more than nearly any pitcher in the game. His 36.4% strikeout rate is fifth in all of baseball among the 293 pitchers (starter and relievers alike) with at least 40 innings pitched this season. His 19.5% swinging-strike rate sits third, trailing only Josh Hader and Aroldis Chapman. Jax’s 1.97 SIERA ranks second in baseball, trailing only the 1.96 mark of breakout Giants reliever Randy Rodriguez.

Jax is under club control for two more years beyond the current season. He had a brutal outing yesterday — three runs without recording an out — but even including that tough day has a 3.08 ERA and 1.49 FIP in 38 innings dating back to late April. He’s the clear favorite to close games for the Twins moving forward. The Yankees are among the clubs looking into Jax, Jon Heyman of the New York Post suggests, and the Mariners have been in the mix as well.

Padres, Twins Among Teams Interested In J.C. Escarra

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Reports earlier in July indicated that J.C. Escarra was drawing trade interest, and Francys Romero writes that the Padres and Twins are two of the clubs most recently asking about the Yankees catcher.  Escarra was optioned to Triple-A just today, leaving Austin Wells and Ben Rice as the catching options on New York’s active roster, and underlining the team’s depth at the position.

Escarra earned his first taste of MLB playing time by making the team out of Spring Training, and acting as Wells’ primary backup while Rice has seen more time at DH and first base than behind the plate.  The backstop’s chief calling card has been his outstanding framing ability, even if his blocking and caught-stealing numbers leave much to be desired.

Escarra’s first 97 career plate appearances in the Show have seen him hit .205/.299/.337, with a .217 BABIP that is perhaps obscuring some better production.  Though Escarra isn’t making much hard contact, he is making a lot of contact period, as he has almost as many walks (11) as strikeouts (14).  His hitting record beyond the majors is inconsistent, but Escarrra hit well at the Triple-A level in 2024, and he got himself on the Yankees’ radar after crushing the ball in 2022-23 during stints in the independent leagues and in the Mexican League.

Given this journeyman background, Escarra is basically found money for the Yankees, so he may be expendable given the team’s other available catchers at both the MLB and minor league levels.  Wells, Rice, and Escarra are the only catchers with any big league experience in the organization, though another veteran could be signed to a minors contract to provide some depth if Escarra did get moved.

The appeal is obvious for the Padres, whose cumulative -0.7 bWAR from the catching position is the lowest in the majors.  With Elias Diaz and Martin Maldonado providing almost nothing, the Padres would have little to lose in seeing what Escarra can do with some regular playing time.  San Diego has one of the lowest strikeout rates of any team in baseball, so Escarra’s high-contact ways are a fit with the Padres’ approach.

Diaz and Maldonado are both free agents after the season.  The Twins have Ryan Jeffers arbitration-controlled through 2026 but Christian Vazquez is an impending free agent.  Like with San Diego, Minnesota’s catching position has also been a weak link, with Jeffers, Vazquez, and (for one game) Mickey Gasper combining for 0.3 bWAR.

At age 30, Escarra may not exactly be a long-term prospect, but he is controllable through the 2030 season.  Either the Padres or Twins could see the catcher as a fairly inexpensive upgrade to their needs behind the plate both this year and in the future.  The Twins are in seller mode, and such players as Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, Griffin Jax, and Danny Coulombe have been linked to New York in recent rumors.  It isn’t known if these Minnesota players could still be on the radar or not, as the Yankees’ acquisitions of Amed Rosario and Austin Slater specifically might’ve made Castro or Bader redundant.

Phillies Acquire Jhoan Duran

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The Phillies have acquired closer Jhoan Duran from the Twins in exchange for catching prospect Eduardo Tait and right-handed pitcher Mick Abel. Both teams have officially announced the deal.

Duran was one of the biggest names on this summer’s trade market. He came in at no. 34 on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 trade candidates, but he surely would have ranked higher if it seemed more likely that he’d be dealt. The flamethrowing right-hander is one of the undisputed best closers in the game, with a career 2.47 ERA, 2.48 SIERA, and 74 saves in 83 chances over the past four seasons. Dating back to his rookie season in 2022, he has thrown 233 2/3 innings in 223 games, racking up 292 strikeouts (seventh-most among relievers) with an elite 63.2% groundball rate. His 9.10 Win Probability Added (WPA) ranks third in that same span, trailing only Devin Williams and Félix Bautista. The 1,284 pitches he’s thrown at or above 100 miles an hour (per Statcast) are easily the most in the majors; Mason Miller ranks second with 819. Only 27 years old and arguably pitching better than ever – he’s on pace for career-highs in both the FanGraphs and Baseball Reference versions of WAR – Duran remains under team control via arbitration through the 2027 campaign.

The possibility of the Twins trading Duran began to seem more and more realistic over the past couple of days, with the 51-57 Twins looking to take advantage of a seller’s market and a bevy of contending teams seeking late-inning bullpen help. It was no secret the Phillies were one such club. A few weeks ago, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reported that Duran (and teammate Griffin Jax) would be “prized targets” for Philadelphia, noting that, in contrast to past deadlines, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was prioritizing “controllable big leaguers” and, in particular, a controllable “shutdown, late-inning reliever.” Since Gelb’s initial report, several more sources linked the Phillies to Duran, including Nightengale and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, but the most recent reporting indicated that their refusal to part with top prospect Andrew Painter would ultimately prevent them from landing Duran, with both Nightengale and Rosenthal and Gelb suggesting as much. Evidently, the Twins softened their demands, although there is no doubt the Phillies still paid a high price to acquire their new bullpen ace.

Tait is widely considered a top-100 prospect, ranked 50th by Baseball America, 51st by Baseball Prospectus, and 56th by MLB Pipeline. As BA notes, he is their first top-100 prospect to be traded ahead of the deadline since 2023, and the highest ranked since 2022. Whether or not the Twins achieved their reported goal of landing two top-100 prospects in exchange for Duran depends on which lists you’re looking at; Abel is currently no. 92 on MLB Pipeline’s list, but he dropped off BA’s most recent post-draft rankings and fell off BP’s list after 2023. For what it’s worth, neither Tait nor Abel was included on FanGraphs’ latest top 100 update.

Looking beyond the arbitrary “top 100” cutoff, however, what matters is that the Twins received a pair of highly talented young players, of a caliber rarely seen moved in deadline deals. Tait is a bat-first catcher with big power and a strong throwing arm, but the rest of his defensive game needs significant work. Still, the bat has enough potential that he could succeed in the majors (presumably at first base or DH) even if he doesn’t stick behind the plate. He lit up the competition in the Dominican Summer League and the Florida Complex League in his first two professional seasons, but he hasn’t looked quite as powerful in Single-A and High-A this year. That said, he’s only 18 years old, which is young for his level, and scouting reports matter far more than his numbers right now. Dan Hayes of The Athletic notes that the Twins have “very good” internal grades on Tait.

Abel might not have quite as much upside as he once did, but he has looked much better this year than he did in 2023 or ’24. He has a 2.31 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 13 Triple-A starts, both his best numbers at any level in any year of his professional career. While he looked overmatched at times in his first six MLB starts for the Phillies, his mediocre overall numbers are the combination of three strong starts and three disappointing outings. He’s not there quite yet, but he showed signs that he could soon become a capable big league starting pitcher. Whether that’s a mid-rotation or back-end starter is now up to the Twins, but he has good raw stuff and a deep arsenal for their development and coaching staffs to work with.

Heading into play today, the Phillies ranked 24th in MLB with a 4.33 bullpen ERA and 15th with a 3.82 bullpen SIERA. Their strong starting rotation has helped to limit the bullpen’s workload (their bullpen ranks last in innings pitched), but still, it’s not hard to understand why Dombrowski was looking for a significant upgrade. Philadelphia’s longest tenured reliever, hard-throwing lefty José Alvarado, will be out until mid-August serving a PED suspension, and he won’t be eligible to pitch in the playoffs. Jordan Romano, the team’s primary bullpen acquisition of the offseason, has struggled to a 6.81 ERA. No one knows what to expect from David Robertson, who did not sign with a team until earlier this month. He remained one of the best relievers in baseball at age 39 in 2024, but he essentially started his spring training last week. Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm have provided manager Rob Thomson with a couple of reliable back-end options, but as the Phillies battle with the Mets for the NL East crown and look to contend for a World Series, it’s clear to see why they identified Duran as a major difference-maker.

As for the Twins, there is now no question they are in full sell mode, having dealt Duran and Chris Paddack, whom they sent to the Tigers on Monday. This makes it seem all the more likely that they will soon trade Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, and Danny Coulombe, all of whom are set to hit free agency at the end of the season. However, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand notes that Minnesota is now far more likely to hold on to Jax, their other controllable relief ace. Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune echoed Feinsand’s statement, writing that the Twins have not “ruled out” trading Jax, but their asking price could now be astronomical – perhaps too high for anyone to meet.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to report that the two sides were closing in on a trade, while Bob Nightengale of USA Today was the first to report that the Twins would receive Tait and Abel in exchange for Duran. ESPN’s Jeff Passan was the first to confirm the agreement.

Photo in article courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images.

Jhoan Duran Trade Market Picking Up

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3:39pm: The Mariners are also making a run at Duran today, per Joel Sherman of the New York Post. Sherman, like Nightengale, adds that there is now an expectation that Duran will be moved at some point today.

2:16pm: USA Today’s Bob Nightengale also writes that there’s a good chance of Duran being moved before the end of the day. Nightengale adds that the Twins have held out for top pitching prospect Andrew Painter in conversations with the Phillies. Philadelphia has been steadfast in not wanting to move Painter in prior trade discussions. It’s a big ask on Minnesota’s part, but that reflects Duran’s affordable control window. Passan had reported last week that the Twins wanted multiple top 100 caliber prospects for either Duran or Jax.

2:07pm: The likelihood of a Jhoan Duran trade seems to be rising. Jon Heyman of The New York Post suggested this afternoon that Minnesota’s talks with other teams on the star closer are “heating up.” Mark Feinsand of MLB.com hears similarly and adds that the Twins could have an agreement on a Duran deal later today.

The Mariners and Yankees have been loosely tied to his market in recent days. Heyman reports that the Phillies and Red Sox are strongly involved and adds the Mets as another team that has at least shown some interest. Jon Morosi of MLB Network adds that the Twins have had conversations with the Dodgers concerning each of Duran, Griffin Jax and Louis Varland. The Blue Jays, Rangers and Padres are among the teams also known to be exploring the market for high-leverage bullpen help — though none has been linked to Duran specifically.

Duran is probably the prize of the reliever market, particularly with Emmanuel Clase no longer an option. The 27-year-old righty throws harder than anyone else in baseball aside from Mason Miller. His four-seam fastball sits in the triple digits, and he averages 97.5 MPH on his absurd sinker/splitter hybrid. Duran’s upper 80s knuckle-curve is an elite pitch in its own right. He has a 2.47 earned run average in parts of four big league seasons. That includes a 2.01 mark through 49 1/3 frames this season. He’s 16-18 in save chances, has struck out more than a quarter of opponents, and is second among relievers (minimum 40 innings) with a monster 65.4% ground-ball percentage.

The Twins are going to move a handful of impending free agents, including lefty reliever Danny Coulombe. The bigger question is whether they’ll trade any of their key controllable pieces. Duran is making $4.125MM and under arbitration control through 2027. Jax, a setup man with even bigger strikeout stuff, is also controllable for two seasons. Varland is still a season away from arbitration and comes with five years of club control, so it’d be very surprising if the Twins trade him.

Minnesota is also getting calls on right-hander Brock Stewart, writes ESPN’s Jeff Passan. The 33-year-old Stewart is playing for barely above the league minimum and has two additional seasons of arbitration control. He has punched out 30% of batters faced en route to a 2.38 ERA across 34 innings. Stewart’s age and notable injury history (elbow discomfort in 2023, arthroscopic shoulder surgery last summer) mean the Twins should be looking to sell high despite the affordable control window.

MLBTR Podcast: Megapod Trade Deadline Preview

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams and Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss various trade deadline topics, including…

Check out our past episodes!

  • David Robertson, Trade Chips For The O’s and A’s, And What The Rangers Could Do – listen here
  • Rays’ Ownership, The Phillies Target Bullpen Help, And Bubble Teams – listen here
  • Firings in Washington, Bad Braves, And An AL East Shake-Up – listen here

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Photo courtesy of Geoff Burke, Imagn Images

Twins Place Byron Buxton On 10-Day IL With Ribcage Inflammation

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The Twins announced today that they have placed outfielder Byron Buxton on the 10-day injured list with left ribcage inflammation. Catcher Ryan Jeffers, who was activated from the paternity list, will take Buxton’s spot on the active roster. In an additional transaction, the Twins officially selected right-hander Pierson Ohl’s contract from Triple-A. He will take the roster spot left vacant after yesterday’s Chris Paddack trade.

Buxton left Saturday’s game early with what the team then deemed left side soreness (per Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic). His MRI revealed he had suffered rib cartilage irritation, which manager Rocco Baldelli described as positive news on Sunday (per Gleeman). At the time, the team believed Buxton to be day-to-day. Evidently, they have now decided he’ll need more than a couple of days off to recover. He is now eligible to return next Wednesday, though it’s not yet clear how long he’ll be out.

The All-Star center fielder is in the midst of a phenomenal season that’s shaping up to be the best of his career. He is slashing .282/.343/.561 with 23 home runs, 17 stolen bases, and 4 OAA. His 3.9 FanGraphs WAR ranks him among the top 10 players in the American League. Of course, playing at a superstar level has never been a problem for Buxton. Rather, his problem has always been staying on the field. He has dealt with injury issues in every season of his career. Only once has he qualified for the batting title, and even then, he just barely reached the cutoff, taking 511 plate appearances over 140 games in 2017. Since then, he has yet to even surpass 400 plate appearances in a season, and only once has he surpassed 100 games (102 games played in 2024). This is already his second IL stint of 2025; he previously spent two weeks on the concussion IL. The Twins and Buxton will hope his rib injury is not much more serious than they initially thought, allowing him to get back on the field in time to set new career highs in plate appearances and games played.

While Buxton is out, the Twins have an excellent backup plan in Harrison Bader – as long as he isn’t traded in the next two days. Bader is a Gold Glove-winning center fielder, and he also happens to be enjoying the best offensive season of his career. He has played most of his games in left field this year (marking the first time in his career he’s spent more time in a corner than in center), but he was one of the game’s premier defensive center fielders over the previous seven years. When the Twins signed Bader over the offseason, they were presumably hoping he’d spend as much time in a corner spot as possible, but they surely knew he might eventually have to fill in for Buxton in center.

Things will become more complicated for Baldelli if the Twins trade Bader ahead of the deadline, especially if they also part with utility man Willi Castro. That would likely leave rookie DaShawn Keirsey Jr. as Minnesota’s starting center fielder in Buxton’s absence. Keirsey’s speed should help him hold his own in center, but he is batting .120 with a .354 OPS this year in 78 plate appearances. That’s a big drop-off from Bader’s production and a massive drop-off from Buxton’s production. Regardless, if the Twins are planning to continue selling before the deadline, it seems unlikely that Buxton’s injury would prevent them from parting with Bader or Castro.

Yankees Interested In Andrew Heaney

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The Yankees have interest in Pirates left-hander Andrew Heaney, reports Jon Heyman of The New York Post. Heyman adds that the Yankees, and the Mets, have checked in on Joe Ryan of the Twins and MacKenzie Gore of the Nationals. However, he downplays the likelihood of anything coming from those pursuits. Similarly, Heyman mentions that the Yankees reached out to the Pirates about Oneil Cruz but says nothing is likely to come from that either.

The Yankees have been connected to plenty of starting pitchers recently. That includes some potentially notable upgrades like Dylan Cease or Mitch Keller, as well as more back-end types like Chris Paddack, who was traded from the Twins to the Tigers yesterday.

Heaney is more in the latter category at this stage of his career. He’s had some tantalizing strikeout stuff in the past but that’s not the case this year. In 107 innings for the Pirates, he has a 4.79 earned run average and a subpar 17.2% strikeout rate.

His season got off to a strong start but he’s been in a rough slide lately. Through his first 14 starts, he had a 3.33 ERA, though with a subpar 18.5% strikeout rate. He was getting a bit of help from his .234 batting average on balls in play and 81.8% strand rate. His FIP and SIERA were both 4.44 for that span, suggesting those metrics thought it was a mirage. They were proven correct when Heaney posted an 8.79 ERA over his next six starts.

It’s not the most exciting set of numbers but the Yanks might just want a veteran to take the ball every five days. As mentioned, they were interested in Paddack, who has similar numbers to Heaney this year. Paddack posted a 4.95 ERA with a 17.6% strikeout rate before his trade.

The Yankees have lost Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt to Tommy John surgery but still have a strong one-two atop the rotation in Max Fried and Carlos Rodón. They have been without Luis Gil all year so far but he’s on the cusp of a return. Will Warren is having a good season on the whole. Adding a vet would allow the Yanks to perhaps move Cam Schlittler back to Triple-A or bump Marcus Stroman to long relief or off the roster.

It’s been a rough stretch for the Yankees, as they have fallen into a tight Wild Card race. Entering today, they are only a game and a half ahead of the Rangers, who are the top team not currently in possession of a playoff spot. Heaney wouldn’t be in the club’s planned playoff rotation but he could upgrade the staff for the stretch run. Schlittler has just two big league outings under his belt while Stroman has a 6.08 ERA in his eight starts this year.

Heaney shouldn’t cost much in terms of prospect capital and is also making just $5.25MM this year. There’s now less than $1.75MM of that still to be paid out. Since the Yankees are a third-time competitive balance tax payor and are over the top tier, they face a 110% tax on any additional spending.

The Yankees could pursue a more impactful upgrade and it seems like they have looked into the possibility. However, all reports have suggested that a trade of either Gore or Ryan would be a long shot. Both pitchers are affordably controlled for two years after this season, making them very valuable to their respective clubs. It would likely take a massive prospect haul to pry either player loose. It’s basically the same story with Cruz, who is controlled for three seasons after this one.

Photo courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, Imagn Images

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