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MLBTR Originals

Poll: What Should The Red Sox Do About First Base?

By Nick Deeds | May 5, 2025 at 4:35pm CDT

The Red Sox entered the 2025 season with big expectations after adding Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman to a team that already had Kristian Campbell, Roman Anthony, and Marcelo Mayer all knocking on the door. So far, things have not gone quite as smoothly as fans in Boston were surely hoping. While the club is just two games back in the AL East, that’s with a lackluster 18-18 record thanks in part to spotty health in the rotation behind Crochet. The injury bug has now moved onto the lineup as Triston Casas has undergone season-ending surgery on his knee.

The 25-year-old was expected to be a major piece of the club’s lineup this year, but his campaign is now over before it ever really got going. Casas’s 112 plate appearances this year were subpar, as he hit just .182/.277/.303 across 29 games before going down with injury. Those struggles were mostly fueled by a low .217 BABIP that was sure to rebound given time, however, and there was little reason to think Casas wouldn’t eventually experience enough positive regression and finish the year in that range of a 125 wRC+, which was his career mark entering 2025. Now, of course, he won’t get that opportunity.

Without Casas locking down first base, the Red Sox don’t have many obvious solutions they can rely on to take up the lion’s share of playing time at the position. Romy Gonzalez was off to a hot start (133 wRC+) to open the year in a part-time role, but his .421 BABIP is completely unsustainable and he’s never hit at an even league average level before in his career. Gonzalez is currently slated to share time with Abraham Toro at first base in the short-term, but the switch-hitter has a similarly lackluster career 81 wRC+ while playing mostly in part-time capacities around the AL West over the years. Depth options at the minor league level are similarly uninspiring. Vaughn Grissom was a top prospect in the not-too-distant past but has yet to establish himself at the big league level. Blake Sabol has at least a little experience at first base, but didn’t hit at all in a brief call-up earlier this year.

None of those options appear likely to provide even average production at first base this year for the Red Sox. That could lead the club to look for external additions, but those options may not be substantially better than their current internal group. After all, teams are typically reluctant to swing significant trades this far from the trade deadline, so external additions would likely be limited to non-roster players in other organizations like Mike Ford, Dominic Smith, or Jon Singleton unless they can convince a player like Anthony Rizzo to resume his playing career at this late point in the calendar. Any of those options could make sense as a lefty complement to Gonzalez, and Smith in particular was used as a stopgap by the Red Sox just last year with some success.

Perhaps they could even pry an ancillary 40-man player away without a clear path to playing time away from another organization. Jake Bauers (Brewers) and former Red Sox Justin Turner (Cubs) are both playing in bench roles in the NL Central. Boston’s former chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom now works for the Cardinals, who have Luken Baker on the roster but without much playing time to offer. Juan Yepez is on the Nationals’ 40-man roster but currently playing the minors. Any of those external options could likely be more productive than the club’s internal group of first basemen, but going outside of the organization would require working out a trade with another club who may not be inclined to sacrifice their own depth, particularly in the case of players already on the 40-man roster, and they’re hardly impact options themselves for a team that sorely needs a boost.

One way to replace Casas with a player who can offer a more impactful ceiling would be to move some of the club’s existing talent to first base. Rafael Devers got bumped off third base by the Bregman signing and is currently the everyday DH in Boston. Perhaps he could be shifted to first base, opening up DH for either Anthony or Mayer to make the jump to the big leagues. Another option would be to get Anthony or Mayer regular reps at first in the coming days ahead of a promotion in the near future. Perhaps even Masataka Yoshida, who has been sidelined this year after shoulder surgery hampered his ability to make throws in the outfield, could handle first base and make a quicker return from the injured list.

Any of those players would be a fairly definitive offensive upgrade over either the club’s internal options already familiar with the position or any realistic external additions at this point in the calendar. The problem with that plan, however, is that none of those players have ever played first base as a professional. While the position is fairly low on the defensive spectrum, asking a defensively-limited player like Devers to pick up an entirely new position on the fly seems risky, as would be the case for asking either Mayer or Anthony to balance learning a new position with the adjustments and struggles that can often come with a young player’s first call-up to the majors.

That’s why, as noted by MassLive’s Chris Cotillo over the weekend, Red Sox brass have indicated that they don’t intend to move anyone to first base on the fly. That, of course, could change. The general expectation when the Red Sox signed Bregman was that he would play second base and Devers would remain at third, and that changed fairly quickly after Spring Training began. It’s not out of the realm of possibility that the club finds itself unsatisfied with the options at its disposal and eventually begins having one of the club’s other players taking grounders at first.

How do MLBTR readers expect Boston to address the vacancy at first base? Will they stick with their current group of options, find someone from outside the organization, or move one of their own players to first? Have your say in the poll below:

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Boston Red Sox MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Triston Casas

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Front Office Subscriber Chat Transcript

By Steve Adams | May 5, 2025 at 2:00pm CDT

MLBTR's Steve Adams hosted a chat today at 2pm CT, exclusively for Trade Rumors Front Office subscribers.

 

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The Athletics’ Rebuild Was A Dud; They’re Winning Anyway

By Steve Adams | May 2, 2025 at 11:59pm CDT

From 2018-21, only four teams in Major League Baseball won more games than the A's. They'd navigated a lean stretch from 2015-17 that saw them rattle off three consecutive last-place finishes in the AL West and come out on the other side with a swiftly acquired/developed core. Matt Olson, Matt Chapman and Sean Murphy were top-100 draft picks. Sean Manaea, Chris Bassitt and Frankie Montas were key pieces in the returns received for Ben Zobrist, Jeff Samardzija and Josh Reddick/Rich Hill, respectively. Mark Canha was added via the Rule 5 Draft (technically in a trade with the Rockies). Ramon Laureano was acquired from the division-rival Astros for a song.

The staying power of that core, as is ever the case with the low-budget A's, was finite. In early September 2021 -- much to the chagrin of some A's fans; my apologies -- MLBTR looked ahead to the massive slate of arbitration salaries facing the then-Oakland club and wondered whether another broad-reaching teardown was nigh, given the escalating cost of that core.

That rebuild indeed came to pass. Over the next calendar year, each of Olson, Chapman, Manaea, Bassitt, Montas and Lou Trivino were traded for prospects. The following offseason, Murphy, A.J. Puk and Cole Irvin followed. Canha, just like Marcus Semien and Liam Hendriks a year prior, departed for no compensation. Sam Moll went at the 2023 trade deadline.

The plus side seemed to be a bevy of new prospects who could potentially accelerate the rebuild process and help get a contending group back on the field sooner than later. If you'd told A's fans on Opening Day 2022, after that miserable offseason rebuild, that the 2025 club would be an on-the-rise team with an exciting core of hitters, they'd likely have begrudgingly accepted that another rebuild paid dividends.

Except ... that's not really the case. It's true that the A's are winning in 2025 and look more exciting than they have in four years -- but they've reached this point not because of that rebuild but rather in spite of it. Let's take a look back at the rebuild, the missteps along the way, and the manner in which this nucleus came together despite a series of whiffs on the trade market.

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Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Oakland Athletics

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Poll: Anthony Santander’s Slow Start

By Nick Deeds | May 2, 2025 at 5:30pm CDT

After missing out on the top available free agent for the second consecutive offseason when they fell short in the Juan Soto sweepstakes, the Blue Jays remained in the hunt to find a slugger who could complement Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and a hopefully resurgent Bo Bichette. Toronto had already brought Andres Gimenez into the fold as a glove-first regular, but his defensive-minded profile was never expected to be a huge boost to the lineup. After being connected to slugger Pete Alonso, third baseman Alex Bregman, and even a possible reunion with Teoscar Hernandez, the Blue Jays finally landed Anthony Santander on a five-year, $92.5MM contract that comes with enough deferred money to lower the net present value of the deal to around $70MM.

The switch-hitting Santander swatted 44 home runs for Baltimore last year while hitting .235/.308/.506 with a 129 wRC+. That power-driven profile had proven to be fairly consistent for the slugger in recent years despite his generally low on-base numbers; Santander slashed .244/.317/.478 with a wRC+ of 124 since the start of the 2022 season. That was a long enough track record to give the Jays reasonable confidence in his ability to perform as a middle-of-the-order bat for them entering his age-30 season.

It’s a bet that hasn’t paid off so far. In Santander’s first 132 trips to the plate as a Blue Jay, he’s hit just .178/.258/.314 with a wRC+ of just 65. That’s 35% worse than league average and, in conjunction with his lackluster defense, has left him tied for the eighth-lowest fWAR total among qualified major leaguers. His overall production has been similar to that of another low on-base, defensively limited corner bat in Jake Burger, whom the Rangers just optioned to Triple-A last night due to his own struggles.

A look under the hood does suggest that Santander shouldn’t be expected to be quite this bad. While his strikeout rate has jumped four percentage points from last year, that 23.5% figure is not very different than the 23.2% he posted in 2023, when he turned in a perfectly respectable 119 wRC+. What’s more, Santander is actually walking more than ever this year. He’s garnered free passes at a solid 9.8% clip, more than two percentage points higher than his career norm. While his swinging-strike rate and contact rate are both down relative to last year, both numbers are more or less in line with his 2023 season. Between a strikeout rate within his ordinary range and the highest walk rate of his career, that .258 on-base mark seems likely to improve alongside his BABIP, which sits at an extremely low .202.

Where there is a more significant negative change in Santander’s numbers is the power department. A look at Santander’s batted-ball metrics reveals some troubling signs. His 5.7% barrel rate so far this year is his lowest since 2018, and his 39.8% hard-hit rate is also the lowest he’s posted since the shortened 2020 season. His exit velocities appear to still be more or less in line with where they have been in recent years, but Santander’s launch angle is down several points. That’s resulted in a ten-point drop in Santander’s fly ball rate and a seven-point jump in his ground-ball rate. Hitting the ball into the dirt is hardly a recipe for success for a power hitter like Santander, whose sprint speed is in the 23rd percentile of big league position players, per Statcast.

Even if Santander will need to make some changes in order to get back to being that consistent 30-to-40 homer threat he was over the past two years, the deflated BABIP and strong walk rate do suggest that he should see at least some improvements, leaving him with an xwOBA 35 points higher than his actual wOBA. Even that .293 expected figure would be Santander’s worst in a full season of plate appearances, however. It’s a troubling trend and one that the Blue Jays and Santander will need to work to correct in the coming weeks in order to get his season back on track.

How do MLBTR readers think the rest of Santander’s first season as a Blue Jay will shake out? Will he manage to get things back on track well enough to post numbers similar to the expectations he’s created in recent years, or will he fall short? Have your say in the poll below:

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Toronto Blue Jays Anthony Santander

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The Rockies’ Latest Missed Trade Opportunity

By Anthony Franco | May 1, 2025 at 8:40pm CDT

Ryan McMahon should have been available at last summer's deadline. The Rockies third baseman got out to a strong start to the 2024 season. He raked in April and continued to hit well through the end of May. His production began to tail off in June, but he carried a solid .272/.350/.447 batting line into his first career All-Star Game. His exit velocities were up, and he was making contact a little more frequently, at least early in the season.

Some of McMahon's early-season results were driven by unsustainable batted ball numbers. He had a .355 average on balls in play through the first two months. Teams wouldn't have expected hits to keep falling at quite that rate, yet even slightly above-average offense would be sufficient when paired with a plus glove. The trade market was light on infield talent. McMahon would have been an attractive target for contenders. The Yankees and Blue Jays were among the teams that reportedly expressed interest.

The Rockies never seemed to consider moving him. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported as early as May 29 that McMahon was "highly unlikely" to be available. Three weeks later, Patrick Saunders of The Denver Post confirmed there was essentially no chance of a trade. Saunders wrote that the front office was keen on a left side infield tandem of McMahon and newly-extended shortstop Ezequiel Tovar. Perhaps more significantly, he reported that McMahon was a favorite player of Rox owner Dick Monfort.

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Colorado Rockies Front Office Originals MLBTR Originals Ryan McMahon

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Poll: Should The Phillies Try A Six-Man Rotation?

By Leo Morgenstern | May 1, 2025 at 4:45pm CDT

As has been the case for each of the past several seasons, the Phillies’ rotation remains the team’s greatest strength. Their starters rank fifth in MLB in ERA and first in strikeouts, K-BB%, and SIERA. They trail only the Mets in FanGraphs WAR. Philadelphia’s continued success in this area has plenty to do with the talent the team has acquired and developed, but health has been another critical factor. In an age when arm injuries are a greater concern than ever, the Phillies have done an excellent job of keeping their pitchers on the field, and they have reaped the rewards. As Matt Gelb of The Athletic pointed out this morning, the Phillies were the only team in Major League Baseball not to make any major league pitching transactions during the first month of the season; the 13 pitchers on their active roster right now are the same 13 they started with on Opening Day.

Philadelphia’s pitching staff will grow healthier still on Sunday when left-hander Ranger Suárez is reinstated from the injured list. He has been out since the spring with back tightness. There is no doubt the Phillies will be pleased to have Suárez back on the bump. An All-Star for the time last summer, he has pitched to a 3.27 ERA and a 3.92 SIERA in 537 innings since the start of the 2021 season. He has been particularly dominant in October, with a 1.43 ERA in 10 postseason appearances (eight starts). No active pitcher has thrown more postseason innings (37 2/3) with a lower ERA. Nevertheless, Suárez’s return raises a difficult question for the Phillies that few other teams are lucky enough to have to answer: What are they going to do with all of their starting pitchers?

The Phillies are one of just five teams to have used only five starting pitchers so far this season. Zack Wheeler has continued to shine in his age-35 campaign, posting a 3.48 ERA and a 2.52 SIERA with 57 strikeouts across an MLB-leading 44 innings of work. Meanwhile, offseason trade acquisition Jesús Luzardo has looked unexpectedly ace-like himself, with a 1.73 ERA and a 3.12 SIERA through his first six starts with his new club. Cristopher Sánchez put an injury scare last week behind him, and his 3.54 ERA and 3.00 SIERA suggest he’s picking up right where he left off in his All-Star 2024 season. Aaron Nola has struggled at times, pitching to a 5.40 ERA, but his underlying numbers (3.63 SIERA, 3.58 xFIP) are stronger, and he has given the Phillies at least five innings in all six of his starts. Finally, Taijuan Walker has been a pleasant surprise as the no. 5. After an ugly 2024 (7.10 ERA, 5.25 SIERA), Walker has been much more effective so far this year. His 2.78 ERA might not be sustainable, but his 4.41 SIERA paints the picture of a capable back-end starter. That’s the kind of pitcher the Phillies hoped they were signing when they gave him a four-year, $72MM contract in December 2022.

It’s not up for debate who Suárez would replace if the Phillies decide to stick with a traditional five-man rotation. Walker might have a sub-three ERA right now, but he’s not the same caliber of pitcher as any of Wheeler, Luzardo, Sánchez, or Nola. If his dismal performance last season wasn’t enough to prove that, his 20% strikeout rate and 10% walk rate in 2025, both the worst rates among Phillies starters, should do it. The question, however, is whether the Phillies would consider keeping all six arms in circulation once Suárez returns.

Asked exactly that on Tuesday, manager Rob Thomson offered a cagey response. “Possibly,” he told reporters, including Noah Levick of NBC Sports Philadelphia. “We’re kind of walking through that a little bit right now.” In contrast, Gelb wrote this morning that the Phillies are “highly unlikely” to use a six-man rotation. That said, even Gelb didn’t shut down the idea entirely, and he acknowledged that sticking with a five-man rotation would “prompt a tough decision” for the Phillies to make.

The crux of the issue is that the Phillies need Walker – they just don’t need him right now. As long as Wheeler, Nola, Luzardo, Sánchez, and Suárez are healthy, Walker is all but irrelevant on this team. Yet, rotation depth is essential to get through a 162-game season, even for a team with a strong track record of keeping pitchers healthy. Walker proved how valuable he can be when he stepped in for Suárez during the first month of the season. The Phillies surely want to have him as an option again should any of their top five starters suffer an injury.

However, if the Phillies don’t keep Walker in the rotation, they’ll have to move him to the bullpen. They don’t have the option to send him down to Triple-A, where he could stay stretched out and ready for his next big league opportunity. It’s not that the Phillies don’t have room for Walker in their bullpen; he would almost surely be an upgrade over Carlos Hernández. The eighth man in Philadelphia’s arm barn has given up eight runs in 11 innings, striking out eight and walking seven. His 10.01 Statcast xERA is among the worst in the sport. The concern is that Walker wouldn’t be as effective yo-yoing between the bullpen and rotation as he is right now after having had a full spring training to prepare as a starter. A six-man rotation would allow the Phillies to keep Walker stretched out and pitching on a consistent schedule.

A six-man rotation would also give the rest of Philadelphia’s starters some additional rest, which could prove critical in helping them all stay at full strength down the stretch and (potentially) into October. This isn’t an option for most teams because it’s hard enough to find five MLB-caliber starters, let alone six. It would make sense for the Phillies to take advantage of this unusual opportunity for as long as they have a surplus of healthy arms.

Of course, a six-man rotation has its downsides, too. For one, it would lead to fewer starts for the Phillies’ best pitchers. In other words, it would diminish what has been the team’s greatest strength so far this season. What’s more, the Phillies have two off days coming up in the next two weeks (May 5 and 15). With a six-man rotation, there would be times when their starters were waiting a full week between outings. It’s fair to wonder if that’s too much time off. Rest is good. Rust is not. It is also important to think of the ramifications a six-man rotation would have on the bullpen. Philadelphia’s bullpen has struggled enough this season as it is, producing a 5.03 ERA and eight blown saves. Those numbers might be even worse if they’d had to split the 98 1/3 innings they’ve pitched so far between seven arms instead of eight. The team could ameliorate this problem somewhat by cycling through the optionable arms at the bottom of the 40-man roster or taking full advantage of the waiver wire, but that’s hardly the smartest bullpen strategy long-term.

Lastly, the Phillies need to consider the Andrew Painter of it all. The top prospect in the organization and one of the top pitching prospects in the sport, the 22-year-old righty is currently rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. His goal is to make his MLB debut at some point this summer. If everyone else is healthy when Painter gets the call, that could be the ideal time for the Phillies to switch to a six-man rotation. They could push their starters a little harder now with the understanding that some respite would be coming later in the season.

Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham recently told the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber, “We’re okay with not chasing a win today to win a bunch of games down the road.” While he wasn’t directly addressing the idea of a six-man rotation when he spoke those words, he nonetheless did a good job laying out the argument for such a strategy. One or two fewer starts from arms like Wheeler, Sánchez, Luzardo, Nola, and Suárez early in the season could mean more starts (and better starts) from all of them when it matters more. Moreover, keeping Walker in the rotation now could help prevent depth issues down the line. With that said, the argument against a six-man rotation is robust, and the most recent reporting suggests it’s still unlikely.

So, what do MLBTR readers think? Would the Phillies be smart to try out a six-man rotation, even just temporarily? Or would they be better off sticking with a traditional five-man set-up and moving Walker to the bullpen? Have your say in today’s poll:

 

Photos courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images.

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Philadelphia Phillies

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Poll: Can Ben Rice Keep This Up?

By Nick Deeds | April 30, 2025 at 5:10pm CDT

Yesterday, Yankees slugger Ben Rice enjoyed a three-hit game that saw him slug two homers. It was a great game, but that’s become almost commonplace for the 26-year-old through the season’s first month. After making his big league debut at first base while filling in for Anthony Rizzo last summer, Rice entered Spring Training this year in the mix for a bench spot as a pinch-hitter and backup catcher behind Austin Wells. An injury to Giancarlo Stanton created an opportunity for regular playing time, however, and Rice was chosen to take those regular reps.

He’s certainly making the most of the opportunity, having done nothing but rake since the season began. In 106 plate appearances this year, Rice has slashed an incredible .278/.387/.611 (184 wRC+). Rice has clobbered eight homers already, leaving him tied for the ninth-most long balls in the majors and just two behind Eugenio Suarez and Cal Raleigh for the major league lead. Sandwiched between those two and Rice with nine homers is Aaron Judge, for whom Rice’s emergence has created the sort of protection in the lineup that Juan Soto offered him last season. If comparing the 26-year-old’s early season production to Soto’s 2024 campaign sounds hyperbolic, it isn’t; Rice’s aforementioned 184 wRC+ currently makes him the fourth-best qualified hitter in baseball and second only to Judge in the AL. Soto’s 180 wRC+ last year made him the third-best qualified hitter in baseball and second only to Judge in the AL.

The question for Rice, however, is how sustainable this hot start will prove to be. The Yankees would surely love for Rice to emerge as star-level bat both for this season and the long-term, when he could take over for Paul Goldschmidt as the club’s regular first baseman. This isn’t the first time Rice has come out of the gates with a hot start, however, as his cup of coffee last year started with a 24-game, 92-PA stretch where he hit an impressive .228/.315/.494 with six homers. That start proved to be unsustainable for him, as he hit a paltry .110/.209/.192 the rest of the way to finish as a well below-average hitter overall across his 50 games in the majors.

In that 24-game stretch of success last year, Rice struck out at a 22.8% clip, walked 12.0% of the time, and posted an incredible 20.0% barrel rate. Those are all solid peripherals, though his 38.3% hard-hit rate was somewhat concerning and helped to explain his lackluster .222 BABIP. That’s especially true when combined with his 50% fly ball rate over that stretch; while elevating the ball often helps with homers, leading to the aforementioned massive barrel rate, softly-hit fly balls are the worst type of contact a hitter can make. That weak contact in the air led to very few balls dropping in for hits, and once the home runs stopped coming his overall production cratered.

How does Rice’s start to 2025 measure up to last year’s hot start? The signs are mixed in that regard. His strikeout rate (24.5%) has actually gotten worse, and his walk rate (12.3%) is mostly stagnant. The real story here can be found in his batted ball data. Rice’s 21.9% barrel rate is phenomenal, but not a massive change from the 20.0% figure he put up during last year’s hot streak. However, Rice is making loud contact much more consistently so far this year. His hard-hit rate has jumped up to a phenomenal 62.5%, good for second in all of baseball this year behind Oneil Cruz’s 62.7% and slightly ahead of Shohei Ohtani’s 62.3%.

Hitting the ball hard that consistently is obviously a good thing, but the hard contact has come at the cost of Rice elevating the ball much less than he was last year. His 15.6% line drive rate is down five points from last year and his 35.9% fly ball rate is down eight points; consequently, that’s led to a 13-point spike in his ground ball rate, which now sits at 48.4%. That huge grounder rate may seem like it would limit Rice’s power, and that’s true to a least some extent. Even so, plenty of hitters have emerged as legitimate power threats over the years despite hitting the ball on the ground a lot as long as they hit the ball hard enough to send it out when they do elevate. Gunnar Henderson, Ketel Marte, and Teoscar Hernandez are among the players who posted big seasons last year despite ground ball rates in a similar range as Rice. What’s more, advanced metrics generally seem to buy that Rice has earned his production so far. His .428 wOBA this year is virtually identical to his .425 xwOBA.

How much do MLBTR readers believe in Rice’s offensive explosion to open the season? Have the Yankees found another star slugger to pair with Judge in the middle of their lineup, or will this hot start prove to be a flash in the pan like last year? Have your say in the poll below:

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls New York Yankees Ben Rice

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Poll: Should The Rangers Be Worried About Marcus Semien?

By Nick Deeds | April 29, 2025 at 7:07pm CDT

On balance, Rangers fans are surely happy that the club signed Marcus Semien prior to the 2022 season. After all, his second year with the club saw him make the AL All-Star team, finish as a finalist for the AL MVP award for the third time in his career, and join the rest of the Rangers in hoisting the Commissioner’s Trophy after bringing home the first World Series championship in franchise history. Flags fly forever, so in a sense that surprising seven-year, $175MM contract that Texas brass shelled out to convince Semien to join a team coming off a 102-loss season is already a resounding success.

Perhaps that’s a good thing, as Semien has shown some worrying signs as he enters his mid-thirties. Last season represented a notable step back from his star-level production thanks primarily to a down season at the plate. In 159 games for the Rangers last year, the veteran hit .237/.308/.391 with a 99 wRC+. It was a step back from the 126 wRC+ he had posted the previous year, but hardly out of the ordinary. 2024 was the seventh year in a row where Semien had alternated a relatively average offensive season with one where he mustered up enough offense to finish third in AL MVP voting. It’s a trend that stretched across three different teams, starting during his time in Oakland in 2018 with a pedestrian season that he followed up by crushing a then career-high 33 homers in 2019.

The trend continued when he suffered a down season during the 60-game 2020 campaign, though Semien came roaring back with a 45-homer season and 6.0 fWAR in 2021 as a member of the Blue Jays. That was the platform campaign Semien put together ahead of his decision to sign with the Rangers, and overall the first three years of that deal have been successful overall with a .254/.320/.433 (111 wRC+) with 14.8 fWAR. Despite his pedestrian season offensively last year, Semien still managed to piece together a four-win campaign thanks to him offering some of the most defensive value in the entire sport with his work at second base. Among all qualified players regardless of position last year, Semien’s +19 Outs Above Average were eclipsed by only fellow second baseman Andres Gimenez. His Fielding Run Value was similarly impressive, as his +14 figure was tied with Gimenez for the league lead among all infielders.

That sort of wizardry with the glove can make up for a pedestrian bat, but it can’t make up for the sort of numbers Semien has put up in 2025 so far. In Semien’s first 115 plate appearances this year, he’s hit a paltry .155/.226/.223, good for a 30 wRC+. That’s 70% worse than league average, and the third-weakest offensive performance in the majors among qualified hitters so far this year. That sort of offensive production is nearly impossible to make up for with the glove and on the bases, and that’s assuming Semien can replicate his elite defense from last year despite being just a few months shy of his 35th birthday. With three years and $72MM still remaining on his contract after this year, Semien’s age and brutal start to the season are clear causes for worry in Texas.

Fortunately, Semien’s underlying offensive numbers do provide reason for at least some optimism. Semien’s .175 BABIP won’t stay more than 100 points below his career mark (.281) all year long. In the power department, his 8.1% barrel rate is actually the highest he’s posted since his 45-homer campaign with the Blue Jays back in 2021, though his 31.7% hard-hit rate is the lowest its been in a 162-game season since 2017. The more concerning metrics are those regarding his plate discipline. While Semien’s 8.7% walk rate is largely unchanged from last year’s 8.9% figure, his strikeout rate jumped from 14.6% in each of the past two seasons to 20.0% so far in 2025.

That increase in strikeouts has been due to an increase in whiffs, especially outside of the strike zone. Semien’s swinging strike rate this year is up to 10.9%, a full two points higher than his career mark of 8.9% and the highest he’s posted since his 21-game cup of coffee with the White Sox back in 2013. When looking at pitches outside of the strike zone, Semien is making contact just 45.5% of the time, down more than ten points from last year. Even though Semien can expect some positive regression in the power and BABIP departments, his newfound issues with whiffs outside of the strike zone could limit his ability to be an above-average bat in the majors if not corrected.

How do MLBTR readers think Semien’s 2025 season will play out? A rebound on at least some level appears all but guaranteed, given that Billy Hunter of the 1953 St. Louis Browns is the last player to post a 30 wRC+ or lower while qualifying for the batting title. The real question appears to be whether Semien will be able to get his offense back to a level that would allow his defense to make him an above-average major leaguer. Have your say in the poll below:

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MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Texas Rangers Marcus Semien

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Looking Ahead To Club Options: NL East

By Anthony Franco | April 28, 2025 at 6:55pm CDT

MLBTR continues our division by division look at next year’s team/mutual option class with the NL East. Only three teams in the division have such options, though Atlanta’s group of decisions involve some of the more notable players in the class.

Previous installments: player options/opt-outs, NL West, AL West, NL Central, AL Central

Atlanta Braves

  • Ozzie Albies, 2B ($7MM club option, $4MM buyout)

This is the final guaranteed season of the $35MM extension which Albies signed early in 2019. The deal was widely considered a massively team-friendly contract the day it happened, and that has proven to be the case. Albies has made a pair of All-Star teams, won two Silver Slugger Awards, and twice found his name on MVP ballots over the course of the deal.

There’s no intrigue to this one. The Braves will exercise the option, which ends up being a $3MM investment after factoring in the $4MM buyout. There will be another $7MM club option (with no buyout) for 2027 that will probably be a similarly easy call. Albies’ offense has declined over the past two seasons, as he’s hitting just .246/.300/.398 in 553 plate appearances since the start of 2024. The $3MM difference between the option price and the buyout is low-end utility player money, though. Even if the Braves start to question whether Albies remains the answer at second base, there’d be surplus trade value.

  • Orlando Arcia, SS ($2MM club option, $1MM buyout)

Atlanta signed Arcia to a three-year, $7.3MM extension on the eve of the 2023 season. It looked like an odd move at the time, an unnecessary multi-year commitment for a likely utility infielder. Then Arcia broke out with an All-Star season while replacing Dansby Swanson as Atlanta’s everyday shortstop. The contract looked like a major coup for the front office.

Things have swung back in the opposite direction over the past year-plus. Arcia’s bat cratered last year, as he turned in a .218/.271/.354 line over 602 plate appearances. While the Braves stuck with him as their starting shortstop, he’s lost that role with a dismal start to the ’25 season. Arcia has hit .200 with eight strikeouts, one walk, and one extra-base hit (a double) through 31 trips. Nick Allen jumped him on the depth chart and has started the past five games. Arcia wouldn’t need to do much to convince the Braves to exercise an option that amounts to a $1MM decision, but he’s no longer a lock to even stick on the roster all season.

  • Pierce Johnson, RHP ($7MM club option, $250K buyout)

Johnson dominated over 24 appearances after being acquired from the Rockies at the 2023 deadline. The righty would have been one of the better setup men in the following free agent class, but the Braves signed him to a two-year extension with a $14.25MM guarantee to keep him off the market. He has made consecutive $7MM salaries and has a matching club option with a $250K buyout for next season.

It has worked out nicely. Johnson fired 56 1/3 innings of 3.67 ERA ball with a strong 28.4% strikeout rate last year. He has punched out 10 while allowing four runs through 9 1/3 frames to begin this season. His whiffs are slightly down, while opponents are making more hard contact than they did a season ago. Those are worth monitoring, but Johnson’s overall body of work in Atlanta consists of a 2.89 earned run average with 109 strikeouts over 89 1/3 innings. As of now, a $6.75MM price point seems like solid value.

  • Chris Sale, LHP ($18MM club option, no buyout)

Sale’s first season in Atlanta was brilliant. He posted an MLB-best 2.38 ERA while leading the National League with 225 strikeouts. He won his first career Cy Young award after finishing in the top six on seven occasions earlier in his career. He reestablished himself as an ace following some injury-plagued years. The trade in which he was acquired from the Red Sox for struggling second baseman Vaughn Grissom has been a steal.

The left-hander’s uneven start to 2025 has contributed to the Braves’ mediocre April. Sale has allowed 5.40 earned runs per nine through his first six outings. They’ve gone 3-3 in those contests. It’s largely the product of an inflated .400 batting average on balls in play against him. Sale’s 27.3% strikeout rate is down nearly five percentage points relative to last season, but it remains a well above-average mark for a starting pitcher. He’s getting whiffs on 12.9% of his offerings. His slider has been as lethal as ever. Opponents have feasted on his fastball so far, but there’s no dramatic change in velocity or spin. While the poor start has probably tanked his chance of repeating as the Cy Young winner, the $18MM option still seems like an easy “yes” for the front office.

Miami Marlins

  • None

New York Mets

  • Brooks Raley, LHP (club option, terms unreported)

Over the weekend, Raley reportedly agreed to terms with the Mets on a one-year deal with a club option. The signing has not been finalized, nor has the money been reported. Raley is working back from last May’s Tommy John surgery.

  • Drew Smith, RHP ($2MM club option, no buyout)

The Mets also re-signed Smith on a one-year deal with an option after TJS — a July operation, in his case. He’s making $1MM for what will probably be a completely lost season. The Mets get an affordable $2MM option for next season that they’re likely to exercise so long as Smith doesn’t suffer a setback. If they do pick it up, he could earn another $750K based on his appearance total next season. Smith would make $50K apiece at 30, 35, and 40 appearances; $75K for 45 and 50 games; $100K at 55 and 60 appearances; and $125K each for 65 and 70 games. He owns a 3.48 ERA over parts of six seasons as a quality middle reliever for New York.

Philadelphia Phillies

  • José Alvarado, LHP ($9MM club option, $500K buyout)

Alvarado signed for two years and $18.55MM in new money on a deal covering the 2024-25 seasons. He has made $9MM salaries in each of the past two years and has a matching option with a $500K buyout. That’s a little below the market rate for high-leverage relievers, which Alvarado has proven himself to be.

Over parts of five seasons with the Phils, the lefty carries a 3.34 earned run average. Bouts of wildness have led to some inconsistency, but he’s shown the ability to miss bats at plus rates while throwing as hard as any left-hander in the sport. Alvarado’s 24.4% strikeout rate last season was oddly pedestrian, but he’s fanned nearly 30% of batters faced in his career.

He has been back at peak form to begin this season. He has punched out 18 of 56 hitters (32.1%) while allowing only three runs through 13 2/3 innings. Alvarado has collected five saves and a pair of holds without blowing a lead, and he’s operating with career-best control (3.6% walk rate). It’s tough to envision him continuing to throw this many strikes — he walked more than 10% of opponents in seven consecutive years leading up to this one — but he’s the Phils’ most trusted reliever right now. This is tending towards an easy pickup.

  • Matt Strahm, LHP ($4.5MM club/vesting option)

Shortly before Opening Day last year, Strahm preemptively signed a one-year extension covering the 2025 season. The lefty is making $7.5MM this year and has a club/vesting option for next season. It begins as a $4.5MM team option. The price would jump by $1MM apiece if he reaches 40, 50 and 60 innings pitched this year. If he hits 60 innings and passes a postseason physical, it vests at $7.5MM. It’s a straight vesting option, not one with an opt-out, so Strahm would return on a guaranteed deal if it triggers.

That’s a result with which the Phillies would probably be happy. Strahm turned in an excellent ’24 campaign, working to a 1.87 ERA while striking out a third of opposing hitters over 66 appearances. He has fanned 15 through his first 11 2/3 frames this year. Strahm has surrendered five runs, four earned, on 11 hits and four walks. His 91.8 MPH average four-seam fastball is down from last season’s 93.4 mark, which is a little alarming, but the results have been solid and he remains one of the more reliable setup options for skipper Rob Thomson.

Washington Nationals

  • None
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Atlanta Braves MLBTR Originals New York Mets Philadelphia Phillies Brooks Raley Chris Sale Drew Smith Jose Alvarado Matt Strahm Orlando Arcia Ozzie Albies Pierce Johnson

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Poll: Will Cedric Mullins Sustain His Hot Start?

By Nick Deeds | April 28, 2025 at 5:20pm CDT

There wasn’t much for Orioles fans to be excited about back in 2021, as they ultimately lost 110 games that season. Center fielder Cedric Mullins was the exception to that, however, as the then-26-year-old broke out in a big way that year with a .291/.360/518 slash line in 159 games while playing strong defense in center. Flash forward to 2025 and while the Orioles are certainly not going to lose 110 games, their fans are once again staring down disappointment as their 10-17 record puts them dead last in the AL East. Amid that disappointment, however, Mullins is once again emerging as a bright spot.

Now in his age-30 season, the club’s center fielder is putting on by far the best offensive performance of his career. He’s slashing .279/.421/.547 in his first 107 trips to the plate, production that’s good for an incredible 185 wRC+. His six home runs put him on pace for a career-best mark over a full season, and he’s pairing that surge in power with a massive 17.8% walk rate while maintaining a fairly low 19.6% strikeout rate. He remains an impressive baserunner as well, with five stolen bases in six attempts, and that entire offensive package has been paired with his typically-stellar defense.

In all, it’s the sort of scorching start that would be MVP-caliber if maintained over a full season; only Aaron Judge and Bobby Witt Jr. have posted more fWAR than Mullins in the AL this year. That sort of season would not only help the Orioles get back into the conversation for a playoff spot, but it would be game-changing for Mullins himself ahead of his first foray into free agency this winter. In a free agent class that has long looked relatively light on quality offensive options, a strong offensive season for Mullins could earn him quite the raise on the open market as was the case for fellow outfielders Anthony Santander and Jurickson Profar this past offseason following their own strong walk years.

Just how feasible is it for Mullins to maintain this production? Some of it certainly looks sustainable. He’s posting a career-high in hard-hit rate (40.0%) while posting his best barrel rate (7.7%) since his 30-homer campaign in 2021, so there’s some reason for optimism about his power increase. His .305 BABIP is within spitting distance of his .290 career mark, and a 20.3% line drive rate (his best since 2020) provides an easy explanation for the slight increase. In general, Mullins is elevating the ball more than he ever has before in his career with a ground ball rate of just 26.6% and a launch angle of 24.1 degrees, both career-best marks. With that said, his aforementioned barrel and hard-hit rates are both still below league average and seem unlikely to keep generating homers at quite this level and his .423 expected slugging percentage is more than 100 points below his actual figure.

While the sustainability of Mullins’ newfound power is questionable, his improved plate discipline is backed up by underlying numbers. Mullins is swinging just 42.1% of the time, the lowest figure he’s posted since his debut season in 2018, and most of that patience has come against pitches outside of the zone. He’s swinging at balls outside the strike zone just 20.7% of the time, and he’s combined that with a knack for making contact on pitches in the zone, connecting on 90.8% of his in-zone swings. It’s led to a swinging-strike rate of just 7.5% so far this year and, while his gargantuan 17.8% walk rate will almost certainly come down at some point, it’s easy to imagine this sort of approach resulting in a career-best walk rate for Mullins, who walked in just 8.1% of his career plate appearances entering this season.

While some regression appears all but guaranteed to come for Mullins eventually, there’s enough real improvements to his approach that it’s not hard to imagine him matching or perhaps even surpassing his career-best 2021 campaign. Mullins’ .366 xwOBA, while nearly 60 points below his current wOBA, is actually 22 points higher than his 2021 figure and by far the best of his career. That expected number puts Mullins in the same ballpark as players like Witt, Seiya Suzuki, and Francisco Lindor this year, and it’s in line with the production of Freddie Freeman, Kyle Schwarber, and Corey Seager at the plate last season.

How do MLBTR readers think Mullins’ platform season will play out? Will he enter free agency coming off of a career year, end up in line with his 2021 numbers, or regress back to his career norms? Have your say in the poll below:

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Baltimore Orioles MLBTR Originals MLBTR Polls Cedric Mullins

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