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The Marlins’ Trade Deadline Outlook

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At 33-42, the Marlins have dropped nine games back of the division-leading Mets in the National League East. They’re even further behind in the Wild Card picture, and they’d also need to jump each of the Nationals, Braves and Phillies to make a run at the division. That’s decidedly unlikely, with FanGraphs’ updated playoff odds giving the Fish just a 0.2% chance of making the postseason. With their hopes of competing in 2021 all but dashed, the Marlins look to be one of a few teams (the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Pirates, Rangers, Tigers and Orioles are among the others) who are virtually certain to move players off the big league roster before the July 30 trade deadline.

Nevertheless, it doesn’t seem the Miami front office is inclined to relaunch a full teardown. The Marlins are expected to hold onto their young, controllable starting pitchers this summer, reports Joe Frisaro of Man On Second Baseball (Twitter link). Instead, the team is more likely to trade position players on expiring contracts and relievers.

That’s not a particularly surprising development. The Marlins have been amidst a rebuild for the past few seasons, and they’ve started to see the fruits of that effort at the major league level. Miami made last year’s expanded playoff, although they never looked especially likely to compete for the division title over the course of a 162-game season. Still, the development of the controllable young pitching gives plenty of hope for 2022 and beyond.

Each of Pablo López, Trevor Rogers and Sandy Alcantara have had fantastic campaigns to date; López and Alcantara are controllable through 2024, Rogers through 2026. Shoulder troubles have kept Sixto Sánchez from making his season debut, but the Marlins were surely never considering moving the promising 22-year-old even before his series of injuries.

Even without Sánchez, Miami’s rotation has been one of the league’s better units. Marlins starters rank sixth in ERA (3.37) and groundball rate (45.1%), eleventh in SIERA (3.92) and twelfth in strikeout/walk rate differential (15.7 percentage points). Obviously, that hasn’t been reflected in the standings, but the team has been more competitive than its .434 winning percentage would suggest.

Miami has outscored their opponents by 21 runs over the course of the season (which is tied with New York for the fifth-best run differential in the NL). A 6-16 record in one-run games has tanked their postseason chances, but their Pythagorean record (essentially a team’s estimated place in the standings based on run differential) is a much better 41-35. That’s largely a moot point this year, but the encouraging underlying numbers lend additional support to the front office’s apparent belief that they needn’t move core players under long-term control.

Turning to players the Marlins do look likely to move in the coming weeks, none stands out more than star center fielder Starling Marté. A left rib fracture sidelined Marté for a few weeks in April and May, but he’s been stellar when healthy. The 32-year-old is hitting .301/.411/.486 with six home runs across 175 plate appearances this season. Marté has been a productive player for years, but his current offensive output is the best of his career. Most notably, he’s chasing pitches outside the strike zone less than ever, helping to drive a 13.7% walk rate that’s far and away his best mark.

Marté is in the final year of his contract, still due the balance of a $12.5MM salary that’s a bargain relative to his current level of production. Earlier this month, he expressed an interest in signing an extension that would keep him in Miami for the remainder of his career. General manager Kim Ng said there’d been no extension talks to date, though, and it’s certainly possible the Marlins prefer to move Marté for young talent rather than offer a player his age a long-term deal. The M’s could theoretically hold onto Marté through the end of the season and make him a qualifying offer, but they’ll likely be offered a midseason prospect return more valuable than the compensatory draft choice they’d receive if Marté rejects a QO.

Few of the Marlins other realistic trade candidates figure to bring back as much as Marté would, but there’s a handful of players who could attract interest. Corner outfielders Corey Dickerson and Adam Duvall are having passable seasons. The shape of their production differs (Dickerson’s hitting for average and getting on base but not hitting for much power, Duvall has slugged sixteen homers but has a lowly .266 OBP), but they’ve both been average offensive players in aggregate.

Dickerson’s due the remainder of a $9.5MM salary, while Duvall is making $5MM this year (including a $3MM buyout of a 2022 mutual option). The Marlins might have to pay down some of that respective money to facilitate trades, but each player could hold modest appeal to an outfield-needy club. (Dickerson is currently on the IL with a left foot contusion). First baseman Jesús Aguilar is having a solid season, hitting .260/.321/.453. He’s controllable through 2022 via arbitration, but Miami could move him, particularly if they’d be disinclined to offer him a raise on his current $4.3MM salary next year.

The Marlins also have a host of affordable relievers who could hold appeal to other clubs. Dylan Floro and Richard Bleier are veteran ground-ball specialists. Ross Detwiler and John Curtiss are missing bats at above-average rates. Yimi García and Anthony Bass have had fine, if unexciting, seasons.

Perhaps most interestingly, rookie Anthony Bender has been a revelation. The 26-year-old hasn’t allowed an earned run over his first 21 1/3 MLB innings. He’s averaging 97.5 MPH on his sinker, missing bats (29.9% strikeout rate), inducing tons of grounders (53.2%) and avoiding walks (6.5%). Miami controls the righty for six-plus seasons, so they could certainly elect to hang onto him in hopes that he cements himself as one of the sport’s top relievers. His breakout isn’t all that dissimilar from Nick Anderson’s in 2019, though, and the Marlins elected to move Anderson at the deadline that year. (Notably, that was under previous general manager Michael Hill, not Ng).

Even if the Marlins don’t listen to offers on their cornerstone rotation pieces, contending teams figure to be in touch with Ng and her front office in the coming weeks. The Marlins have plenty of complementary veterans and quality relievers who could help contenders down the stretch.

MLBTR Poll: How Should The Royals Proceed With Danny Duffy?

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Royals left-hander Danny Duffy made his return from the injured list this evening, starting tonight’s game against the Yankees. The 32-year-old tossed two scoreless innings in a purposely brief appearance, his first action in a little more than a month. Before going on the IL with a left flexor strain, Duffy had gotten off to a very strong start to the season. Through seven starts totaling 41 2/3 innings, he worked to a pristine 1.94 ERA/2.35 FIP/3.65 SIERA.

Over the season’s first month-plus, he punched out a well above-average 28.2% of opposing hitters, a career-best mark, while walking only 7.1%. On a pitch-by-pitch basis, Duffy generated swings and misses at a 14.2% clip, also a career-best figure that’s well above the league average of 11.4%. His average fastball, slider and curveball velocity were all up between one and two ticks relative to last season. He held that increased pitch speed in today’s start, a welcome development considering there could’ve been some concern about potential lingering effects of the injury and accompanying layoff.

Because of the injury, his body of work remains a fairly small sample. Duffy’s had better month-plus stretches in his career, but he hasn’t had a seven-start run at this level since late in 2017, his last season posting an ERA below 4.00. Duffy’s not going to sustain an ERA below 2.00, but he certainly looks to have bounced back from his middling 2018-20 form. Between 2016-17, the veteran worked to a 3.64 ERA with above-average strikeout and walk numbers- solid mid-rotation production. Given his improved raw stuff and early-season peripherals, it’s not unreasonable to think he can approximate that kind of performance moving forward.

If Duffy continues to pitch at an above-average level while building back towards a starter’s workload, contending clubs figure to reach out about his potential availability. The Royals got off to a strong start but they’ve fallen off rather precipitously since the start of May. Now 33-39, Kansas City has fallen ten games back in the American League Central. They don’t seem like plausible postseason contenders in 2021. With Duffy slated to be a free agent at the end of the year- and the trade market for starting pitching shaping up to be thin- he’d be a fairly straightforward trade candidate in most organizations.

The Royals operate differently than many MLB teams, though. The front office has a reputation for being more loyal than most, and they’ve re-signed or reacquired many of the players who contributed to their pennant-winning clubs of the last decade. Trading away marquee players midseason hasn’t been their M.O.

In the past, Duffy has expressed a desire to stick in Kansas City for his entire career. In response to 2017 trade rumors, he rather famously tweeted “bury me a Royal” and expressed a strong affinity for the organization and the city. Even if the front office were willing to consider moving him near the deadline, Duffy could end those discussions. He entered the season with 9.085 years of MLB service, meaning he’ll have eclipsed ten years by July 30. Players with ten years of service, the most recent five with the same team, are granted full no-trade rights under the terms of the CBA. If Duffy has no interest in moving elsewhere midseason, he could exercise his 10-and-5 rights and block a move.

The Royals’ record and Duffy’s impending free agency could open a mutually-beneficial opportunity for a midseason deal, though. Trading Duffy (with his permission) before July 30 could give him an opportunity to play in a pennant race in 2021 and allow the organization to bring in some young talent. A midseason trade wouldn’t foreclose the two sides reuniting next winter. It’s not common for teams to sign players whom they traded away midseason in free agency the following offseason, but it’s not completely unheard of, either (the Cubs’ 2014 deal with Jason Hammel and the Yankees’ 2016 reunion with Aroldis Chapman being prominent examples). A trade would result in Duffy forfeiting his 10-and-5 rights, but the sides could agree on a no-trade clause as part of a free agent deal if he’s concerned about being moved again in the future.

It’s certainly possible the two sides work out a long-term deal during or after the year, with Duffy never changing uniforms. While it seems unlikely, there’s some chance the Royals hang onto Duffy all season but allow him to depart in free agency. But the opportunity also seems to exist for a trade that could appeal to both Duffy and the Royals, even if both sides want to continue the relationship over the long term.

We’ll turn things over to the MLBTR readership: how should and how will the Royals handle Duffy’s impending free agency? (poll links for app users)

 

 

Cedric Mullins’ Emergence In Baltimore

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The Orioles have torn their roster down as part of a massive rebuild over the past few seasons. The organization has acquired a collection of highly-regarded prospect talent the fanbase is certainly hoping will comprise the core of a contender down the line. In the interim, though, the MLB product has been quite poor. The Orioles went 126-258 (32.8% winning percentage) between 2018-20, and their 23-48 record this season is the worst in the American League.

This kind of rebuild does offer an opportunity for less-heralded players to get some run at the major league level, though. Most won’t take advantage, resulting in a lack of teamwide success, but an underrated player will occasionally perform at a high enough level to cement himself as a building block of the organization’s long-term future. This season, Cedric Mullins has done exactly that.

A 13th-round pick out of Campbell University in 2015, Mullins performed well enough in the minors to generate a bit of attention. Baseball America twice ranked him among the O’s top 30 prospects, suggesting he was most likely to settle in as a fourth outfielder. In 2018, Eric Longenhagen of FanGraphs noted that he had an intriguing toolset and minor league track record but suggested the consensus opinion among talent evaluators was that he’d be more of a role player than a true regular.

Mullins made his MLB debut late that season and performed in line with those expectations over the next couple seasons. Between 2018-20, he hit .225/.290/.342 (73 wRC+). He was always a good baserunner and made some improvements at the plate last season, but he still looked like more of a placeholder than a core piece entering the year.

Over the past few months, Mullins has changed that outlook by outperforming even the most optimistic projections. He’s hitting .319/.389/.552 (158 wRC+) with thirteen home runs across 304 plate appearances. Not only has he emerged as a force at the plate, he’s been one of the game’s rangiest defenders. Statcast credits Mullins with seven outs above average this season, tied with Brett Phillips for second among outfielders (Manuel Margot is plus-9). Advanced metrics that take arm strength into account (like Defensive Runs Saved and Ultimate Zone Rating) have been a little less enthused, but all agree that Mullins has at least been above-average in center field this year.

Factoring in his contributions on both sides of the ball, Mullins has been one of the most valuable players in the sport. FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement metric places Mullins third among position players (fourth if you also include Shohei Ohtani’s pitching value), trailing only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Ronald Acuña Jr. Baseball Reference’s version of the statistic slots Mullins seventh.

There’s room to debate where Mullins truly fits among players like Guerrero, Ohtani, Fernando Tatís Jr., Marcus Semien, Carlos Correa and Matt Olson this year. That he’s even in that conversation, though, is a testament to the campaign he’s had. Mullins will almost certainly be elected to the All-Star Game, and he’s tracking towards appearing on MVP ballots if he can continue to produce like this in the second half of the season.

Mullins probably won’t remain this good. His .363 batting average on balls in play is 73 points higher than the .290 league average. A quality runner, he should be expected to run a slightly better than average BABIP, but he’ll have a hard time keeping it quite so high. Statcast’s batted ball metrics suggest his results have outpaced the quality of his contact a bit, and his prior track record of subpar hitting can’t be completely discounted.

There’s plenty of room for Mullins to take a bit of a step back while remaining a decidedly above-average player, though. His defense gives him a strong floor to begin with, and the 26-year-old has made some substantive changes that suggest he’s turned a corner at the plate. Most notably, Mullins abandoned switch-hitting this year, hitting left-handed permanently. He’s been much better at hitting opposing southpaws left-on-left than he was stepping into the right-handed batter’s box. But that’s only come in 97 plate appearances, and he’s posting career-best production against righties this year too.

Mullins is striking out less than he did last year against pitchers of both handedness (albeit with a more significant drop against lefties), making more contact when he swings, and drawing walks at a career-best rate. He’s also almost completely stopped popping the ball up on the infield, even as his overall fly ball rate is higher than ever. Perhaps abandoning his right-handed swing to focus solely on hitting lefty has made Mullins more comfortable with his mechanics overall. Maybe his strong production against righties is completely unrelated to that decision. Whatever the reason, he’s made significant strides as a hitter.

There’s been plenty of attention on which players the still-rebuilding O’s might move before the July 30 trade deadline. Mullins, though, looks like a safe bet to stick around. He’s controllable through 2025 and won’t reach arbitration-eligibility until after next season. Even if there’s some regression forthcoming, he’s made enough process improvements to believe he’s truly taken his game to another level as he enters his prime years. Mullins looks to have legitimately broken out in 2021, and he’s the type of player the Orioles can build around as their top prospects matriculate to the big league level. Baltimore fans haven’t had much to celebrate in recent seasons, but Mullins’ emergence is a reason to continue to watch as the team scuffles in the near-term, and a sign of hope for the future.

The Pirates Have One Of The Best Bullpen Chips On The Trade Market

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There are plenty of clichés about the usefulness of a closer on a rebuilding and/or last-place team, and for the most part they hold true. Locking down victories on the path to 100 losses — even if you’re doing your job well — often goes somewhat overlooked. A high-leverage reliever on a team that has few high-leverage chances isn’t going to get much national love.

Richard Rodriguez | Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

This time of year, however, they should get plenty of love around the league as contending clubs look to bolster their relief corps. Enter relatively anonymous Pirates closer Richard Rodriguez, who has solidified himself as one of the most effective relievers in the game over the past few seasons.

Rodriguez, 31, is nowhere near the top of the saves leaderboard in MLB or even in just in the National League, which isn’t much of a surprise given the Pirates’ 23-44 record. He’s only had nine save chances all season, and he’s converted seven of them. He’s sitting on a 1.71 ERA through 26 1/3 innings so far in 2021, and dating back to his Pirates debut in 2018, he has a 2.83 ERA in 184 1/3 frames.

Of course, teams in 2021 aren’t going to be particularly wowed by a shiny ERA or a player’s save total/save percentage. Rodriguez shines in other areas, however. His 21.1 percent strikeout rate in 2021 is the lowest it’s been in parts of four seasons in Pittsburgh, but he’s also sporting a career-best 3.2 percent walk rate and has yet to hit a batter in 2021. It’s also important to note that while his punchouts are down in ’21, Rodriguez has shown in the past that he can miss bats in bunches.

Rodriguez whiffed 31.5 percent of his opponents in 2018 and a whopping 36.6 percent in 2020. In both of those seasons, Rodriguez threw his breaking ball roughly one in four times and his four-seamer the other 75 percent of the time. So far in 2021 — as was the case in 2019 — he’s throwing roughly six times as many heaters as breaking ball. Fewer sliders, fewer strikeouts — but also fewer walks.

The strikeout rate is rather pedestrian this year, but that’s in large part because Rodriguez has excelled at inducing mediocre contact with his fastball that he hasn’t much needed to lean on his swing-and-miss breaking ball. Opponents have only “barreled” two balls against Rodriguez all season, per Statcast, and what he’s lacking in punchouts he makes up for with harmless infield fly-balls. A pop-up to the infield is nearly every bit as productive as a strikeout; for a pitcher’s purposes, they’re both effectively automatic outs.

So far in 2021, Rodriguez has induced seven pop-ups to the infield — tied for fifth-most among all MLB relievers. The four pitchers ahead of him have pitched an average of 7 1/3 more innings than Rodriguez this year. (Again, being a high-leverage reliever on a team that doesn’t get high-leverage opportunities can limit your workload.) Statcast pegs Rodriguez’s average opponents’ launch angle at 25.5 degrees — fifth-highest among relievers — due to the number of balls that are skied against him. This isn’t a new phenomenon either; dating back to 2019, Rodriguez is tied for 12th among relievers in pop-ups induced. Six of the names ahead of him on the list have more innings pitched.

Rodriguez’s fastball isn’t overpowering, sitting at 93.4 mph on average, and it doesn’t miss bats in droves despite being a high-spin offering. But that high spin rate and his willingness to work in the upper portion of the zone (or above it) helps to generate those pop-ups and the occasional whiff. Spin rate is an increasingly dubious term these days, as the league cracks down on the use of illegal foreign substances, but there’s been no noticeable drop in Rodriguez’s spin since the league began warning of sanctions. Rodriguez has ranked among the league leaders in fastball spin since 2018, and his most recent outing, in fact, saw his four-seamer reach its highest spin-rate mark of the season (2680 rpms). Either he’s brazenly and blatantly still using some form of substance, or he simply has a more innate ability to spin the ball than most pitchers.

Taken in totality, Rodriguez is a high-leverage reliever with a solid fastball, a breaking ball that misses bats (but isn’t always needed), some of the best control of any reliever in the game, and what appears to be a repeatable ability to generate infield flies. All of that on its own would be appealing, but then there’s the matter of his contractual status and remaining club control.

Rodriguez is in his fourth full season with the Bucs and will finish out the year just north of four years of MLB service time. That gives him two years of remaining club control beyond the 2021 season. He’ll be up for a raise via arbitration in both of those years, but the Pirates’ lack of leverage opportunities for him will actually work to his detriment (and to a new team’s favor) in that regard. This is only Rodriguez’s first full season as a closer for the Pirates, and his limited chances this year have left him with all of 12 career saves. That lack of saves left his first-year arbitration salary at a highly manageable $1.7MM, and it’ll likely limit his raises in 2022 and 2023 — particularly if an acquiring team puts him back into a setup role.

In other words, the Pirates this summer can market two and a half years of control over a pitcher who has quietly been one of the NL’s most effective relievers since 2018, and those two and a half seasons ought to come at a combined price in the $7.5MM to $9MM range. Even in an extreme scenario where a new team plugged Rodriguez into the ninth inning and he went on to lead the league in saves, he’s starting from a low enough point that the price would remain eminently reasonable.

There are going to be plenty of high-profile relievers on the market this summer. Many will throw harder than Rodriguez, more consistently miss bats than he does, and have more saves/holds than he’s amassed on a persistently cellar-dwelling Pirates club. But there are few relievers with this type of track record at such an affordable price point and with multiple years of control remaining beyond the 2021 season.

Obviously, the former Pirates’ front office regime made its fair share of missteps. There’s a reason the Buccos are in the position they’re in, after all. But the signing of Rodriguez as a minor league free agent after he was cast off by the Astros and Orioles alike is a move that deserves praise. It’s also a move that has left new GM Ben Cherington and his staff one of this summer’s most appealing trade candidates.

Will Trevor Bauer Opt Out After The Season?

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When Trevor Bauer signed a three-year, $102MM deal with the Dodgers back in February, he ensured flexibility by securing opt-outs after the first and second years.  However, the details suggest the contract was designed to keep Bauer in Los Angeles for the first two seasons.

Bauer received a $10MM signing bonus, $5MM of which was paid in March.  The other $5MM will be paid next month.  Beyond that, his 2021 salary is $28MM, but with the quirk that it’s all payable on November 1st of this year.  Here’s what happens if he opts out after the 2021 season, according to Cot’s:

Bauer may opt out of the contract after the 2021 season, receiving a $2M buyout, with Dodgers deferring $20M of 2021 salary without interest, paid in $2M installments each Dec. 1, 2031-40

In other words, if Bauer opts out after this season, he walks away with $12MM in hand, and then has to wait a decade until the Dodgers pay him again.  And even then, it’s $2MM per year for ten years, with no interest.  Your estimates may vary, but that deferred $20MM is worth a lot less than being paid now – most likely half as much.

Opting out after the 2022 season involves none of that deferred money stuff, and throws in a $15MM buyout.  Bauer would have earned $85MM for two seasons, foregoing a mere $17MM for ’23.  Barring injury, jumping out of the contract at this point seems like an easy choice.  As the best pitcher on the free agent market, Bauer landed a very flexible contract.  The Dodgers took on all the downside risk, which is the nature of opt-out clauses.

Bauer started this season strong enough to at least give another look to the possibility of opting out after ’21.  After an outing at San Francisco on May 21st, Bauer’s ERA sat at 1.98 through 12 starts, with a 36.2 K%.  If you had asked me at that point, I’d have said it’d make sense for Bauer to opt out after ’21, even if just to land the same three-year deal all over again.  But on the horizon was a hallmark date with a potentially large effect on Bauer and many other pitchers.  On June 3rd, Bob Nightengale wrote, “Major League Baseball informed owners Thursday that it is engaged in the next phase of league-directed enforcement banning the use of foreign substances by pitchers — which would include 10-day suspensions — two persons with direct knowledge of the meeting told USA TODAY Sports.”  Today, MLB announced its new enforcement plan, which starts Monday.

Through May 31st, Bauer averaged 2840 RPM and 93.8 miles per hour on his four-seam fastball.  In the two starts since, those numbers are 2630 RPM and 94.1 mph.  There are players who have lost more RPM on their four-seamers since the impending crackdown became known, without much velocity change, such as the Indians’ James Karinchak.  But Bauer’s 210 RPM loss on the four-seamer is significant, especially for a guy who throws the pitch 44% of the time.

All we can say definitively is that the average spin rate on Bauer’s four-seam fastball in two starts after June 3rd was 210 RPM lower than the average RPM in a dozen starts before that date.  That the RPM drop was caused by Bauer stopping the usage of foreign substances on the ball or changing what he uses is the implication, but not a fact.  It’d take a further leap to say that Bauer’s mediocre results in those two starts were caused by the RPM drop.  It should be noted that 2630 RPM still ranks sixth in baseball from June 3rd onward, and there’s nothing too meaningful about allowing seven earned runs in 12 1/3 innings.  It’s also worth pointing out that Bauer’s ERA was probably not going to stay around 2.00 even without a foreign substance crackdown.  Bauer certainly has not shied away from MLB’s sticky stuff drama, as he “demonstrated to reporters on the field before Tuesday’s game that a combination of sweat and rosin was sufficient to allow him to stick a baseball to his hand, palm down,” according to Bill Plunkett of the OC Register.  He showed this on Twitter, while also diving into Tyler Glasnow’s comments.

If you’re an MLB GM considering signing Bauer at some point in the future, you’re definitely going to try to determine how much of Bauer’s recent success was the result of the use of foreign substances, because you have to forecast how he’ll perform over the next several years.  If this was a major consideration for Bauer’s suitors in the 2020-21 offseason, I didn’t hear about it.  For Bauer and potential suitors, the calculus has changed.  So let’s get your opinions on when we’ll see him next on the free agent market.

The Reds Could Be One Of The Deadline’s Most Interesting Teams

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We’re a little more than six weeks away from the trade deadline, and it appears July is going to be a month of difficult decisions for the Reds front office. Cincinnati sits at 32-31, third place in the NL Central. They’re slightly ahead of the Cardinals and five games back of the Cubs and Brewers, who are tied for the division lead. With the Giants surprisingly leading the star-studded Dodgers and Padres out west, the two wild card spots will be hard to come by in the National League.

By most measures, the Reds look like an average team. Their record is marginally above .500, while their -10 run differential is eighteenth among the league’s thirty clubs. FanGraphs’ rest of season projections have the Reds playing at an 80-82 pace; when coupled with their current record, they’d land right at 81-81 if they perform at that projected level from here on out.

Finishing .500 wouldn’t be enough to make the playoffs, but the Reds also aren’t that far away from the postseason picture. The Cubs and Brewers have played well to this point but each has some obvious deficiencies on the roster (starting pitching for Chicago, the bottom of the lineup in Milwaukee). It doesn’t seem either team will run away with the division. Indeed, FanGraphs’ playoff odds give the Reds a 14.6% chance of making it to the postseason- unlikely, but not out of the question.

It’s possible the team will just define itself one way or another in the coming weeks. They still have 40 games to play before the July 30 deadline. If they go 25-15, they’d look like legitimate division contenders. A 15-25 swoon would make them an obvious seller. But what if Cincinnati plays .500 ball over the next month and a half- as they have so far and as the projections expect them to the rest of the way? The Reds would still be a long shot at that point, with playoff odds likely a bit lower than they are now (since they’d have even less time to make up ground on the teams in front of them). But they wouldn’t be completely out of contention, and selling at the deadline would be a tough sell to the fanbase.

Cincinnati suffered through six consecutive losing seasons from 2014-19. The organization made a concerted effort to end that run late in the 2019 season, acquiring Trevor Bauer with an eye towards 2020 and signing Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos the following offseason. They did snap the streak of below-average records in last year’s shortened season, but it took a playoff expansion for them to get into the postseason, where they were swept by the Braves without scoring a run. (That marked the 25th consecutive season since the Reds last won a playoff series, the longest active draught in MLB).

They’ve already lost to Bauer to free agency, and Castellanos could soon depart himself. The 29-year-old is having a fantastic season, sitting on a .361/.416/.635 line with 13 home runs in 255 plate appearances. Given that level of performance, it’d take a massive collapse or injury for him not to opt out of the remaining two years and $34MM in guarantees on his contract. Castellanos opting out wouldn’t preclude the Reds from re-signing him, of course, but it’s not clear ownership would be willing to sign off on another significant outlay.

The Reds slashed payroll from $147MM in 2020 (prior to prorating) to $122MM this season on the heels of last year’s revenue losses. Next year, they’ll still be on the hook for substantial salaries to Joey Votto ($25MM), Moustakas ($16MM), Eugenio Suárez ($11.286MM) and Sonny Gray ($10.867MM), per Cot’s Baseball Contracts, before accounting for arbitration raises for a group including Jesse Winker and Luis Castillo. Unless ownership is willing to again increase spending on player payroll, it could be tough to commit to a raise for Castellanos.

If the Reds aren’t going to re-sign Castellanos, there’s a case they should field offers on him this summer. As the sport’s third-best qualified hitter (behind only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Winker), he’d draw no shortage of interest. Castellanos would almost certainly command a prospect return greater in value than the compensatory draft pick the Reds would receive if they allowed him to depart as a free agent after making a qualifying offer. Trading away one of the game’s top bats would be a tough sell to a fan base that has seen very little recent success, though, particularly if the Reds remain only a handful of games back in the division race.

Maybe the team’s performance will make the Reds direction obvious by July 30. If they continue to play at the level they have been, however, their front office will have some very difficult decisions to make.

2021-22 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings

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It’s time for a fresh installment of our 2021-22 MLB Free Agents Power Rankings, where we rank players by their potential earning power should they reach the open market as scheduled.  For this exercise, I’m setting aside the uncertainty of the collective bargaining agreement expiring on December 1st.  For the full list of free agents, click here.

1.  Corey Seager.  Seager suffered a broken hand after getting hit by a pitch in mid-May, and seems likely to return around early July.  It will be interesting to see how Seager hits once he returns.  In 169 plate appearances to start the season, he sits at a 122 wRC+.  That’s strong work, but perhaps a bit short of Seager’s own standards, as he entered the season with a career mark of 130.

2.  Carlos Correa.  Correa is raking this season, with a 147 wRC+ that ranks second only to Xander Bogaerts among shortstops.  He’s also managed to play in all but three of the Astros’ games and hasn’t been on the IL since late in the 2019 season.  I debated Correa vs. Trevor Story back in mid-April…but can Correa move past Seager?  Correa’s Statcast hitting numbers are strong this year, and he even ranks fifth among shortstops in Outs Above Average on defense.  Plus, Correa is not set to turn 27 until September.

3.  Kris Bryant.  Bryant is having a monster season, posting a 160 wRC+ that ranks second among all free agents (assuming the Astros pick up Yuli Gurriel’s option).  Bryant is on pace for a six or seven WAR season.  That’s on par with the production of the first three years of his career, which netted him the 2016 NL MVP award.  Though Bryant once looked like an obvious trade candidate, the Cubs are currently clinging to first place in the NL Central.  FanGraphs puts their playoff odds at about 40%.  If that holds for the next month, trading Bryant won’t be a viable option for GM Jed Hoyer.  In that case, Bryant’s final overture from the Cubs may come in the form of a qualifying offer after the season.

4.  Trevor Bauer.  After the season, Bauer must decide whether to opt out of the remaining two years and $62MM on his contract with the Dodgers (causing a large chunk of his ’21 salary to be deferred) or potentially opting out of only the 2023 season, leaving just $17MM on the table.  Bauer’s calculus may be changing in light of MLB’s impending crackdown on the use of foreign substances.  Through Bauer’s first 12 starts, his four-seam fastball had 2,840 RPM at a velocity of 93.8 mph.  But on June 6th in Atlanta, Bauer’s spin rate dropped to 2,612 while staying at virtually the same velocity.

Will Bauer continue to post Cy Young level numbers for the remainder of the season if MLB’s sticky stuff rules are fully enforced?  If he slips – even if it has nothing to do with foreign substances or spin rate – the perception might be enough to prevent him from opting out.

5.  Trevor Story.  Story owns just an 89 wRC+ through 50 games; he hasn’t had a stretch this bad since 2017.  Plus, he hit the IL with right elbow inflammation in late May.  He’s expected to be activated today, and has plenty of time to right the ship before the Rockies most likely trade him in July.

6.  Freddie Freeman.  In 2018, a season in which Freeman finished fourth in the NL MVP voting, he had a 58-game stretch during which he posted a .780 OPS, which is a bit worse than what he’s done this year.  I don’t think there’s anything to worry about with the reigning NL MVP, even with a wRC+ all the way down to 111.  But the timing isn’t great for Freeman, who turns 32 in September and may have to be content getting a bit past Paul Goldschmidt’s five-year, $130MM deal.

7.  Kevin Gausman.  Gausman has sustained his strikeout rate from last year, improved his control, and has benefitted from a 7.1% home run per flyball rate and .212 BABIP.  Since joining the Giants in 2020, Gausman has a 2.29 ERA in 137 1/3 innings.  Maybe his skills are more indicative of a 3.00 ERA, but that’s still top shelf work that may put him in the $100MM discussion.  Gausman bet on himself this year by accepting the Giants’ qualifying offer, and that decision is looking prudent so far.

8.  Javier Baez.  It’s tough to predict how the market will treat Baez.  The Cubs’ 28-year-old shortstop continues to do things you’ve never seen before on a baseball field, but he also owns a .240/.276/.480 swing-for-the-fences batting line with a 36.7 K%.  With potentially nine starting shortstops on the free agent market this winter, teams will have options.

9.  Clayton Kershaw.  Kershaw has thrown four clunkers in his last seven starts, sending his ERA from 2.09 to 3.66.  Overall, though, I don’t think his skills have changed.  The 33-year-old should still be able to land a three-year deal at a premium salary, even if he limits his potential destinations.

10.  Max Scherzer.  Scherzer turns 37 in July, and will be highly sought-after if the Nationals are willing to trade him this summer.  Normally a pitcher at Scherzer’s age has little chance at a three-year deal, but so far he has a 2.22 ERA, 36.1 K%, and 5.2 BB%.  I think someone might spring for the third year.

Honorable mentions

Nick Castellanos, J.D. Martinez, Mark Canha, Brandon Crawford, Chris Taylor, Marcus Semien, Buster Posey, Starling Marte, Craig Kimbrel, Lance Lynn, Carlos Rodon, Robbie Ray, and Marcus Stroman are among those having big years, though if we set the bar for the top ten at $100MM they’ll have a hard time getting there.

A couple of Mets, Michael Conforto, and Noah Syndergaard, have been bumped from the top ten.  Conforto has failed to hit for power thus far, while Syndergaard had a setback in his rehab from Tommy John surgery.  Dylan Bundy also fell off the list, as he’s given up 23 runs in his last 21 innings.  There are others who fall somewhere in-between, having a solid but not spectacular year, like Anthony Rizzo, Avisail Garcia, Zack Greinke, Anthony DeSclafani, and Wade Miley.

An Underrated Reliever Who Could Find Himself On The Trade Market

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Still amidst a multi-year rebuild, the Orioles are one of a handful of teams around the league certain to trade players off the big league roster in advance of the July 30 deadline. Much of the discussion about the club in the coming weeks figures to revolve around the potential availability of staff ace John Means and first baseman Trey Mancini, with good reason. But there’s a lower-profile Oriole whose excellent performance should draw plenty of attention from contenders: lefty reliever Paul Fry.

A former 17th-round pick of the Mariners, Fry was traded to Baltimore for international signing bonus space back in 2017. He made his MLB debut the following year. While Fry began as a rather nondescript middle reliever, he’s quietly been lights-out for the past two seasons. Since the start of 2020, Fry has pitched to a 2.22 ERA that ranks twelfth among big league relievers (minimum 40 innings).

Relievers can sometimes fluke their way into strong ERA’s given their generally small sample workloads, but that doesn’t appear to be the case with Fry. He’s among the top 25 bullpen arms in strikeout rate (33%), strikeout/walk rate differential (22.9 percentage points), SIERA (2.98) and ground ball rate (55.3%) over the last two years. Quite simply, he’s done almost everything teams want from a pitcher. He’s shown the ability to both miss bats and keep the ball on the ground, so it’s no surprise he continues to post scoreless innings. His 10.1% walk rate, while slightly worse than league average, is far from disastrous.

Fry was very good in 2020, and he’s seemingly taken his game to another level this season. Fry’s punching out hitters at a career-best 36.7% rate this year, helping him pitch to a 1.99 ERA across 22 2/3 frames. He’s averaging a career-high 93.5 MPH on his four-seam fastball, which is missing bats at an elite level. And Fry’s been equally dominant against hitters from both sides of the plate, holding left-handed and right-handed batters alike to a sub-.500 OPS.

That level of on-field dominance is interesting enough, but Fry’s contractual status makes him all the more appealing a trade target. He’s making just more than the league minimum salary this season and comes with three additional years of team control via arbitration. Even the lowest-payroll contenders would have no issue adding Fry to the books; the same is true of big-market teams seemingly set on staying underneath the luxury tax threshold (i.e. Astros, Red Sox and Yankees).

While that level of production and cost control certainly appeals to the Orioles as well, Baltimore figures to at least entertain offers on Fry. They’re not going to contend this season, and it’d be a stretch to envision them hanging around the postseason picture in 2022. The performance of relief pitchers can be volatile, and the late-blooming Fry will be 29 years old by deadline day. It’d make sense for the Orioles to move him to a more immediate contender if they’re offered high-end prospect talent to continue to stockpile the farm system. Contending clubs are seemingly always on the lookout for relief help at the deadline, so there should be no shortage of teams in touch with the Orioles about one of the game’s most underrated arms in the coming weeks.

Top 40 MLB Trade Candidates: Early June Edition

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Memorial Day is behind us, which is typically the time of year that teams at least begin to shift their focus to the summer trade market. With this year’s draft pushed back to July, it’s possible some clubs will look to be active a bit earlier than usual. Even if things don’t really pick up until next month, as is typically the case, we at least have some semblance of an idea as to how things will play out.

As in past years, this list aims to rank players on a combination of likelihood of being moved and overall value as a trade chip. It’s all subjective, of course, but “value” in this instance is a reference to a player’s on-field production, salary, remaining club control, etc.

Club control and salary dovetail nicely with a player’s likelihood of being moved. Rebuilding clubs and clear sellers are obviously more likely to move impending free agents — particularly those who aren’t candidates to receive a qualifying offer. Players with one extra year of control are also frequently moved at the deadline, but once you start getting into players with two, three and four years of affordable control remaining, the likelihood diminishes. The composition of a club’s farm system comes into play, too. Does a veteran with a year and a half of club control remaining have a top prospect breathing down his neck? Is the team’s farm so bleak that it needs to consider moving players with several years of control remaining? There are many factors to consider.

As the deadline draws nearer, the names on the list will change. Teams will fall out of contention, and some who look far from the top of their division will make a surge. Injuries or poor performance will sap some players’ value, while a return to health or a turnaround on the field could boost the performance of others. Again, it’s subjective and highly debatable, which is part of what makes the whole thing a fun exercise.

On to the list!

1. Jon Gray, RHP, Rockies: The Rockies turned over their front office earlier this year after yet another lackluster start, and Gray stands out as the likeliest trade candidate on the roster. The former No. 3 overall pick and top prospect is in the midst of a solid rebound campaign, but he’ll be a free agent at season’s end. The Rockies probably wouldn’t issue a qualifying offer without a huge finish to the year, and starting pitching is always in demand at the deadline.

2. Trevor Story, SS, Rockies: While Gray may be something of a borderline QO candidate, Story seems like a lock to receive a qualifying offer if he isn’t traded. That’s the key difference between him and Gray in terms of trade likelihood; the Rox need to feel that whatever they receive in return is more valuable than that 2022 draft pick. It should be noted that outside of a brief hot streak from mid-April to early May, Story hasn’t really hit much in 2021. He’s also on the IL with what the team has termed minor elbow inflammation, and the hope is his stint will last only 10 days. Story is also striking out at a career-low 22.4 percent clip without sacrificing anything in the walk department, and his track record is so strong that if he shows his health in the next few weeks, interest should be robust.

3. Mitch Haniger, OF, Mariners: It was great to see Haniger take the field at all after his 2019-20 seasons were derailed by a bizarre series of escalating injuries, but the fact that he’s returned as one of the American League’s most productive hitters only makes his story better. They’re enjoying the comeback in Seattle for now, but Haniger only has a year of control remaining beyond the 2021 season. With a deep crop of young outfielders on which to rely — 2020 Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis, plus top prospects Jarred Kelenic, Julio Rodriguez and Taylor Trammell — the Mariners seem likely to explore the market for Haniger this summer. He’s earning $3.01MM in 2021.

4. Matthew Boyd, LHP, Tigers: The Tigers held onto Boyd when he was one of the most oft-mentioned trade candidates in the game in 2019, but their club control on him is beginning to dwindle. Boyd is eligible for free agency after the 2022 season, and he’s enjoying a nice year thanks largely to a new-look changeup that has helped him neutralize opposing right-handers. So long as Boyd stays healthy and reasonably effective, this summer will be his trade value’s apex. It’s hard to see him sticking around into August.

5. Tyler Anderson, LHP, Pirates: Anderson’s signing couldn’t have worked out much better for the Bucs so far. He’s pitching his best baseball since his rookie year in 2016 and sporting career-best marks in swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate. Durability is a major question mark for Anderson, who has only twice started 25 games in a season. But he’s been healthy since Opening Day 2020, and his $2.5MM base salary is a bargain for clubs in need of some reinforcements at the back of the rotation.

6. Adam Frazier, 2B/OF, Pirates: Frazier has put last year’s awful season in the rear-view mirror and is in the midst of the best start of his six-year career. The 29-year-old has ample experience at second base and in the outfield, and he could fill in as a starter or versatile bench option for any contending club. His $4.3MM salary is, incredibly, the second-largest on the Pirates behind Gregory Polanco, but that’s an eminently affordable price for Frazier even if he reverts back to his typical, roughly league-average level of offensive output.

7. Richard Rodriguez, RHP, Pirates: One of the most anonymous high-end relievers in the game, the 31-year-old Rodriguez boasts a 2.84 ERA, a 27.4 percent strikeout rate and a 6.7 percent walk rate dating back to 2018 with the Pirates. He’s not flashy, sitting 93.2 mph with his heater, but Rodriguez gets the job done and is controllable all the way through 2023. Any team seeking a high-leverage reliever could acquire two and a half years of his services this summer, and given his $1.7MM salary in 2021, his subsequent arbitration raises won’t break the bank.

8. Kyle Gibson, RHP, Rangers: Gibson’s 2020 season was a nightmare, and the 2021 campaign looked to be more of the same after he couldn’t escape the first inning of his first start. Since that awful 2021 debut? All Gibson has done is pitch 54 innings of 1.50 ERA ball with a 53.7 percent grounder rate and the lowest walk rate of his career. His strikeout rate is below-average, he’s not going to sustain the .214 BABIP he’s logged over those eight starts, and his 81.7 percent strand rate is due for a correction as well. But even with some regression baked in, Gibson looks like the latest veteran to outperform a modestly-priced three-year deal in Texas. He’s on the IL with a groin injury at the moment but is reportedly looking at a fairly minimal stint.

9. Ian Kennedy, RHP, Rangers: Kennedy has had more success than arguably any pitcher who inked a minor league deal this winter, rejuvenating his career with a dominant showing as the Rangers’ closer. He’s among baseball’s leaders in saves and is doing so with a revitalized heater, a strikeout rate north of 31 percent and the lowest walk rate of his career. That minor league pact came with a $2.15MM base salary, which makes Kennedy affordable for any team in need of bullpen help. He’s a free agent at season’s end, but he looks like one of the better bullpen rentals out there.

10. Kendall Graveman, RHP, Mariners: Another reliever rental in the AL West, Graveman has gone from a solid fourth starter to someone who looks like a potentially overpowering bullpen piece. His sinker velocity has soared since he moved to short stints after an IL stint in 2020, and he’s emerged as the Mariners’ closer on the back of a 26 2/3-inning run during which he’s posted a 1.35 ERA with a 22-to-6 K/BB ratio and a 50 percent ground-ball rate. He’s currently on the Covid-related IL, but Graveman hasn’t surrendered a run in 16 2/3 frames this season. He’s on a one-year, $1.25MM deal with incentives that can max it out at $3.75MM. This is the type of reliever every buyer will want.

11. Yimi Garcia, RHP, Marlins: The Dodgers’ decision to non-tender Garcia in 2019 has proven regrettable. Since joining the Fish on a $1.1MM deal that winter, Garcia has turned in 36 2/3 innings of 1.23 ERA ball, striking out 29.2 percent of opponents and walking just 6.8 percent of them along the way. He’s on a small $1.9MM salary in 2021 and will be a free agent at season’s end, making him an appealing rental option for teams in need of relief help (which ought to be nearly every contender).

12. David Peralta, OF, Diamondbacks: Peralta, 34 this summer, hasn’t recaptured his 30-homer pace from the 2018 season but has been an above-average bat and solid corner defender throughout his career. When the deadline rolls around, he’ll be halfway through a three-year, $22MM extension on a D-backs club that has been among the worst in the game. He generally struggles against lefties, but Peralta mashes right-handed pitching and would be a boost to any club looking for some left-handed pop — particularly if said club has a solid right-handed pairing for him. He’s earning $7.5MM in 2021 and has the same salary in 2022.

13. Michael Fulmer, RHP, Tigers: Like Boyd, Fulmer has a year of control beyond the 2021 campaign and was an oft-mentioned trade candidate earlier in his career. It’s a little easier to see why Fulmer wasn’t moved, as trading a former AL Rookie of the Year when he had four or even five years of club control remaining would’ve required a massive haul. By the time he was in a more conventional window to be moved, injuries had wrecked multiple seasons for the righty. Those look to be in the past now, however, as Fulmer has seamlessly moved from the rotation to the ’pen, stepping up as Detroit’s closer in 2021. His fastball velocity is as good as ever now that he’s working in short stints, and Fulmer boasts career-best marks in swinging-strike rate and opponents’ chase rate. He’s owed a raise on his $3.1MM salary in arbitration this winter, but that looks plenty reasonable for this version of the right-hander.

14. C.J. Cron, 1B, Rockies: Cron’s minor league pact with the Rox could scarcely have gone better thus far. He’s proven that his surgically repaired knee is healthy, which was about the only question mark surrounding him given that Cron has hit pretty much since the day he made his MLB debut. He’s not an elite defensive first baseman and doesn’t really offer any versatility, but he’s a solid everyday option at first or DH. Cron is a bit above average against righties and absolutely punishes lefties. His deal came with just a $1MM base salary at the MLB level, so he’s not going to break the bank. Teams have generally devalued first base/DH-only sluggers in recent years, but Cron will draw interest and fetch the Rockies a prospect or two.

15. Michael Pineda, RHP, Twins: Minnesota is probably baseball’s most disappointing team, and at 22-31, things are looking bleak. Pineda stands as the most logical rental candidate they could market, though the Twins’ offseason consisted entirely of one-year free-agent signings, so they surely have others. Pineda should have the broadest market, however, as most contenders will be looking for solid rotation pieces, and he certainly fits the bill. Pineda is playing out the second season of a two-year, $20MM deal and will be a free agent this winter. Barring a major winning streak in Minnesota, he figures to be available.

16-17. Dylan Bundy (RHP) & Andrew Heaney (LHP), Angels: Bundy has been rocked in his past three starts, which has sent his ERA spiking to 6.50. His velocity is up this season over its 2020 levels, however, and he’s sporting similar marks in K-BB%, SIERA and other secondary indicators that he carried during his excellent 2020 season. If Bundy continues to struggle with the long ball, which has been an issue for him in the past, then his stock will obviously dip. If he looks like he did in 2020 or through his first six starts of this season, however, he’ll be one of the market’s more in-demand rentals. It’s a somewhat similar tale for Heaney, who has had a roller-coaster season beginning with a miserable season debut. He’s sporting a 5.24 ERA but with demonstrably better K-BB numbers and fielding-independent marks. With the Angels six games under .500, Mike Trout absent for another six to seven weeks and a new front office regime installed, the Angels could sell off some short-term pieces.

18. Jose Urena, RHP, Tigers: A hard-throwing 29-year-old, Urena doesn’t miss many bats but is inducing grounders at a 54.3 percent clip and has been a generally solid fifth starter for a rebuilding Tigers club that is all but certain to flip him if a decent offer presents itself. Urena has a 4.14 ERA in 54 1/3 frames, albeit with a poor 15 percent strikeout rate and a pedestrian 9.4 percent walk rate. He’s unlikely to factor into a club’s playoff rotation unless injuries necessitate it, but for a postseason hopeful looking for some stability at the back of the rotation for the season’s final few months, Urena is a decent, low-cost option. He signed a one-year, $3.3MM deal with Detrot this winter.

19. Raisel Iglesias, RHP, Angels: The 31-year-old has run into some uncharacteristic homer troubles since being traded to the Halos, but he’s also sporting the best K-BB% of his career thanks to a career-best 35.1 percent strikeout rate and a career-low 3.9 percent walk rate. His ERA is just shy of 5.00, but most teams will expect that number to trend downward in the months to come. Iglesias is second among 184 qualified relievers with a 21.1 percent swinging-strike rate, and his 37.9 percent chase rate is tied for 19th.

20. Joey Gallo, OF, Rangers: Gallo is drawing walks at a career-high clip, and his strikeout rate is “down” to a career-low 34 percent. His power numbers have trended downward since Opening Day 2020, however, and if Gallo isn’t hitting like a 30- or 40-home run threat by this summer, the offers probably won’t be enough for Texas to consider a move. Playing on a $6.2MM salary for the current season, Gallo is controllable through the 2022 campaign.

21. Nelson Cruz, DH, Twins: Cruz is in his third season with Minnesota and has become an invaluable leader and integral part of the clubhouse. Trading him would be a difficult move, and his market will likely be limited to AL suitors. The Twins are likely hoping a big June showing for their team can get them back into the postseason hunt, but it’s increasingly tough to ignore a 22-31 record and a 10.5-game deficit in the division. If they’re still nowhere near contending as July 30 approaches, Cruz could be the most impactful bat moved at this year’s deadline.

22-23. Eduardo Escobar & Asdrubal Cabrera, INF, Diamondbacks: The D-backs hold one of the game’s worst records. Escobar and Cabrera are reasonably productive veterans who are impending free agents. It’s a pretty textbook formula for a trade. Escobar slumped to a .269 OBP since 2020, but he’s also been dogged by a .241 average on balls in play during that time — well down from his career .290 mark. He’s never drawn many walks, so the BABIP dip has been particularly harmful to his batting line. That said, his power is back in 2021 after a brief disappearance in 2020. The 32-year-old is solid at second or third, can handle left field or shortstop in a pinch, and is playing on a reasonable $7.5MM salary. The switch-hitting Cabrera, meanwhile, just keeps on producing, even at 35 years of age. He’s no longer a shortstop, but Cabrera can handle either infield corner and second base. He’s been an average or better hitter every season since 2015, and this year has been perhaps the best start of his generally underrated career. Playing on just a $1.75MM salary this season, he’d be a boost to any contending club’s infield mix, although he’s currently on the injured list with a right hamstring strain.

24. Michael A. Taylor, OF, Royals: The longtime Nats outfielder inked a one-year deal with the Royals after getting non-tendered and is out to a .256/.308/.397 start in 169 plate appearances. Taylor isn’t a great hitter, but he’s a plus defender with some home run power who can swipe a handful of bases in a given year. Considering the number of clubs dealing with outfield injuries — in center field in particular — Taylor represents a fine stopgap who can later shift to a bench role. He’s playing on a cheap $1.75MM base salary, which makes him affordable for just about any team.

25. Merrill Kelly, RHP, Diamondbacks: I profiled Kelly as one of the game’s more appealing under-the-radar trade chips last summer. He promptly went on the injured list thereafter, and within weeks was headed for thoracic outlet surgery. Sorry, Merrill. He’s back healthy in 2021, and while the results haven’t been as good this year, Kelly is sporting solid K-BB numbers and has really been plagued by a poor strand rate. Looking past his smallish-sample ERA, his skill set appears pretty similar to that of the 2019-20 version of Kelly who was a solid No. 4 starter. It’s not necessarily an exciting package, but Kelly has just a $4.25MM salary in 2021 and a $5.25MM option for 2022, so he’s a nice add for a pitching-hungry team with budgetary constraints.

26. Robbie Grossman, OF, Tigers: Grossman’s two-year, $10MM deal with Detroit this winter has already paid off in spades. His perennially high walk rate is at a career-best 15.9 percent, and he’s posted a .256/.382/.423 slash with five homers and a 7-for-8 showing in stolen base attempts. Grossman isn’t a great defender, but he’s playable in either corner and is a proven source of OBP whose power has ticked up in the past couple seasons. A contender with OBP struggles and/or outfield deficiencies could probably jump the market, since Grossman ought to be available well in advance of the July 30 deadline.

27. Freddy Galvis, SS, Orioles: Hitting for the most power of his career with his second-best walk rate and a strikeout rate a good bit south of league average, Galvis has exceeded expectations in Baltimore. Both Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average feel he’s playing the worst defense of his career, but a contender might look to Galvis as more of a utility option to bounce between shortstop, third base and second base anyhow. His cheap $1.5MM salary isn’t going to stand in the way of anyone acquiring him. Galvis obviously won’t get a qualifying offer, and the Orioles aren’t going to contend this year, so the impending free agent seems all but guaranteed to be traded as long as he’s healthy.

28-29. Starling Marte & Corey Dickerson, OF, Marlins: The Marlins are hanging around in an unexpectedly mediocre NL East, but the salaries of both Marte and Dickerson, paired with some young outfield talent on the rise, could prompt the club to move either veteran. Dickerson, in particular, feels likely to be on the market given that the Fish have more depth at the outfield corners than in center. But Miami might not want to risk a qualifying offer for Marte, and the Marlins certainly don’t want to lose him for nothing when he reaches free agency at season’s end.

30. Kole Calhoun, OF, Diamondbacks: Calhoun is still on the shelf after undergoing hamstring surgery earlier this year, but he should be back a month or more before the deadline, giving him some time to prove his health to other teams. He was out to a nice start in ’21, hitting .292/.333/.479 in 51 plate appearances. Calhoun has an established track record as an above-average bat and quality defender in right field, though certainly a hamstring operation could impact both facets of his game. He’s earning $8MM this year, and his contract has a $9MM club option for the 2022 season. Given that option’s $2MM buyout, it’s effectively a net $7MM decision for the D-backs or an acquiring team.

31. Jacob Stallings, C, Pirates: Stallings isn’t as commonly cited as a trade candidate as some of his more well-known teammates, but he’ll be among the better catchers available on rebuilding clubs. He’s a roughly average bat wh0 gets there more through OBP than power, but a league-average bat at catcher is valuable when the average catcher is hitting .216/.298/.367 so far in 2021. Stallings is a .256/.331/.384 career hitter who’s out to a .240/.343/.421 start in 2021. He’s earning just $1.3MM in 2021, is controllable via arbitration through 2024, and is a premium defensive option. He’s also already 31 years old, so despite being controllable, the Pirates should have no problem moving him if a catcher-needy contender comes calling.

32. German Marquez, RHP, Rockies: While Gray and Story look like near-locks to be moved, Marquez is in a different situation. The 26-year-old is signed affordably through 2024, earning $7.5MM in 2021, $11MM in 2022 and $15MM in 2023 before the Rockies (or another club) can decide between a $16MM club option or a $2.5MM buyout. He was absolutely blown up by the Giants last month, serving up eight runs and getting knocked out in the first inning, but he’s been excellent outside that one fluke appearance. Marquez has a 4.47 ERA overall but a 3.28 mark if you’re willing to overlook that career-worst day. Marquez whiffs hitters at an average or better rate, typically has a better-than-average walk rate (albeit not so far in 2021) and induces grounders north of 50 percent. He’s posted a combined 4.18 ERA since 2018 while calling Coors Field home. Most clubs would view him as a mid-rotation starter with the upside for more, and his affordable contract adds to the value.

33. Spencer Turnbull, RHP, Tigers: Similar to Marquez, Turnbull is a controllable starter on a rebuilding team who doesn’t “have” to be moved this deadline. His recent no-hitter garnered him some national attention — deservedly so — but Turnbull has been a solid starter since the 2019 season. Over his past 245 1/3 innings, he has a 4.22 ERA and 3.68 FIP. He’s enjoying the best walk and ground-ball rates of his career so far and allowing less hard contact than he ever has. Turnbull won’t even be arbitration-eligible until this winter and is controlled through 2024, so the Tigers could certainly hold onto him. Then again, they got burned by doing just that with Boyd and Fulmer, so perhaps they’ll be more proactive this time around.

34-36. John Means (LHP), Anthony Santander (OF) & Trey Mancini (1B/OF), Orioles: Baltimore has some tougher decisions to face regarding the three players that figure to hold the most appeal to other teams. Means has been one of the game’s best pitchers in 2021 and is controlled through 2024, which indicates he could at least be part of the next competitive Orioles club. But he’s also already 28, and the Orioles know they won’t be competing just yet in 2022. Holding Means would be gambling that he’ll remain this effective into his age-30 and age-31 seasons — completely plausible but also inherently risky, as is the case with any pitcher. Mancini would be a natural trade candidate were he not the Orioles’ feel-good story of the season — the heart-and-soul of the clubhouse who triumphed over a frightening diagnosis of Stage 3 colon cancer. The optics of trading him wouldn’t be great, and the move would be felt immensely in the clubhouse. Santander drew plenty of offseason interest after a nice 2020 showing, and he’s another player who is controllable through 2024. He has power but clear OBP issues. Of the three, he’d probably be the easiest to part with should another club show interest.

37. Sonny Gray, RHP, Reds: I’m not convinced the Reds will be all-out sellers at this point — more on that below — but that was true in the offseason and they still at least listened to offers on Gray as they looked to cut payroll. Gray would require a pretty notable return given that he’s signed affordably through 2023 (the final year being a club option) and is once again delivering quality results. He’s missed some time but now has a 3.40 ERA with a well above-average strikeout rate and a slightly improved (but still below-average) walk rate. If it becomes clearer that the Reds will shop Gray and his contract, he’ll vault up this list in a hurry as one of the best arms who could conceivably be moved in July. That’s also true of the next entrant on the list.

38. Nick Castellanos, OF, Reds: Castellanos hit .305/.347/.611 in March and somehow got much better in May, hitting .409/.476/.667. At this point, the 29-year-old is hitting so well that it seems likely he’ll exercise the opt-out clause in his contract. If the Reds are out of the race, they’ll have to look at Castellanos as a rental they’ll likely lose. Considering the Reds’ efforts to shed payroll this winter, dropping the remainder of Castellanos’ $14MM salary while also adding some prospects in return might be a palatable gambit.

39. Danny Duffy, LHP, Royals: Kansas City’s recent tailspin has caused them to plummet in the AL Central standings. They’re in a tough spot with Duffy, as he’s a free agent at season’s end who was enjoying a dominant start to the season before hitting the injured list. Duffy is a homegrown product who’s already signed an extension once and has somewhat famously declared, “Bury me a Royal” in response to past trade rumors surrounding him. The Royals are trying to move toward a more competitive cycle and surely want him to be a part of that. Kansas City, perhaps more than any other club, is loyal to its core players and resistant toward trading veterans for prospects. At the same time, interest in Duffy will be strong if he’s healthy. They could conceivably trade him in July then try to re-sign him in November, but this sort of move isn’t really GM Dayton Moore’s style. Duffy will be in demand, but I could just as easily see the Royals signing him to an extension.

40. Madison Bumgarner, LHP, Diamondbacks: It won’t be easy to unload Bumgarner’s contract after his poor showing in 2020, but he’s shown some signs of rebounding in a bizarre 2021 season. Bumgarner has been rocked for five or six earned runs in five of his 11 starts — his first three outings and his two most recent ones. The interim six starts? Bumgarner looked like the 2014 version of himself, hurling 34 innings of 1.32 ERA ball with a 39-to-6 K/BB ratio. His average fastball velocity is up three miles per hour after last year’s dip to 88.3 mph, which has to be encouraging for the D-backs and others. Still, Bumgarner is owed the balance of this year’s $19MM salary (about $12.5MM) plus salaries of $23MM, $23MM and $14MM from 2022-24. The D-backs would need to eat some cash or take back a contract to make things work, and the financial component of any such trade only further muddies the actual return in terms of young talent.

Others to Watch (* = Currently on injured list)

Angels: Jose Iglesias, Steve Cishek, Tony Watson, Alex Cobb, Jose Quintana*, Junior Guerra, Kurt Suzuki

Cubs: Zach Davies, Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras

D-backs: Joakim Soria, Tyler Clippard*, Josh Reddick

Mariners: Yusei Kikuchi, Chris Flexen, Drew Steckenrider*, Keynan Middleton, Rafael Montero

Marlins: Adam Duvall, Anthony Bass

Nationals: Max Scherzer, Kyle Schwarber, Josh Harrison, Jon Lester, Starlin Castro

Orioles: Matt Harvey, Paul Fry, Maikel Franco, Pedro Severino, Shawn Armstrong, Tanner Scott

Pirates: Colin Moran*, Trevor Cahill*, Mitch Keller, Chris Stratton, Chad Kuhl, Steven Brault*

Rangers: Joely Rodriguez, Mike Foltynewicz, Brock Holt, Charlie Culberson, Khris Davis

Reds: Luis Castillo, Tyler Naquin

Rockies: Daniel Bard, Jhoulys Chacin, Mychal Givens

Royals: Jorge Soler, Brad Keller, Greg Holland, Carlos Santana, Mike Minor, Jarrod Dyson, Ervin Santana

Tigers: Wilson Ramos, JaCoby Jones, Niko Goodrum, Jose Cisnero, Jonathan Schoop, Jeimer Candelario

Twins: Andrelton Simmons, J.A. Happ, Alex Colome, Hansel Robles, Matt Shoemaker, Taylor Rogers

General Notes

–As the deadline looms closer, the viability of sell-offs from disappointing, expected contenders improves. It’s tempting to jam the list full of Twins after two disastrous months, but it’s hard to see them selling controllable players when most of their core is intact into 2022 (and well beyond, in many cases). It’s similarly hard to see them climbing back into the race, but still I wouldn’t expect much beyond the impending free agents, and perhaps an increasingly expensive reliever like Taylor Rogers.

–The same holds true for the Nationals. While there was plenty of speculation on Max Scherzer earlier this month, it’s not clear he’ll be made available. Teams would certainly be interested in a pitcher of his caliber if the Nationals were to sell. But the Nats, of all teams, are familiar with how a team’s record through Memorial Day isn’t reflective of where they’ll be at season’s end. The Nats are a woeful seven games under .500, but they’re still only six games out of first in a surprisingly feeble NL East. Washington generally hasn’t been keen on aggressively shopping their core players in recent years, so it’s not a given they’d look to move Scherzer if they remain on the periphery of contention.

–There’s been plenty of speculation on the Cubs, particularly surrounding Kris Bryant, but at eight games over .500, they’re unlikely to trade any of their core players even on the brink of free agency. A prolonged losing streak would likely bring up rumors surrounding all of the above-mentioned veterans, with Bryant the likeliest to change hands based both on his massive start to the season and his monster rebound effort at the plate.

–Few picked the Royals to contend in 2021, but that was their aim, and general manager Dayton Moore has made clear that he wants to shift his focus to winning in the here and now. They didn’t sign Carlos Santana and Mike Minor to multi-year deals simply to flip them. Either veteran could draw interest — Santana, in particular, has raked — but the Royals likely view their window to contend as just starting to open. Prospects like Daniel Lynch, Jackson Kowar, Kris Bubic and the ballyhooed Bobby Witt Jr. could all be on the big league roster in early 2022. It’s hard to see them trading many pieces, and even Duffy was a borderline inclusion on this list. It wouldn’t at all be a surprise were Moore to come out and flatly say he won’t trade the left-hander.

–The Reds are closer to the cellar than first place in the NL Central as of this writing. The club walked a fine line this past winter, dumping salary without really adding any win-now pieces in hopes that a strong offense and a quality core of bats would help them contend in 2021. That hasn’t been the case just yet, due in part to the struggles of Luis Castillo. The Reds never said it, but it’s hard to imagine owner Bob Castellini didn’t push the front office to shed payroll based on their offseason. If they’re a ways back this summer, any of their veterans on notable salaries could surface as legitimate trade candidates.

The Blue Jays Other Key Free Agent Signing Is Paying Off

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The Blue Jays drew plenty of headlines over the offseason for their reported interest in seemingly every free agent available. It took until late January, but the club rewarded the fanbase’s patience by landing premier center fielder George Springer on a six-year, $150MM guarantee. Various injuries have mostly kept Springer off the field to this point, but the Jays are getting a ton of production from their other key position player acquisition: Marcus Semien.

Semien was one of the more difficult free agents to value last winter. He’d been a solid regular from 2015-18, combining consistently league average offense with strong shortstop defense and durability. The 2019 season brought an offensive breakout, with Semien unexpectedly hitting .285/.369/.522 with a career-high 33 home runs. He didn’t follow up on that incredible year during the shortened 2020 season, though. Semien got off a terrible start, and while he finished the year on a hot streak, his overall .223/.305/.374 line was closer to his average hitting from 2015-18 than his fantastic numbers the year before.

With some uncertainty about his true offensive talent level and teams curtailing free agent spending on the heels of the shortened season, Semien elected to take a prove-it deal with the Jays. He signed a one-year, $18MM guarantee with Toronto just a few days after the club added Springer, agreeing to slide to second base in deference to Bo Bichette in the process. In the early going, it looks like a great decision for both player and team.

Semien is off to a career-best start at the plate in 2021. The 30-year-old is hitting .288/.355/.545 over his first 220 plate appearances. He’s completely regained his 2019 power stroke, posting a personal-high .258 ISO (slugging minus batting average), while his thirteen home runs is tied for sixth in MLB.

Unsurprisingly, a good chunk of that production seems to be the result of him simply hitting the ball harder more consistently. Semien is barreling up 8.5% of his batted balls this year, per Statcast- a better than average mark he’s only ever matched in the aforementioned 2019 season. His average exit velocity is up to a career-best 90.5 MPH, a more than 4 MPH improvement over his figure from last season. He’s also gotten more pull-oriented on his fly balls. The improved thump is no coincidence, since pulled flies lead to the most power-friendly outcomes for a hitter (the league is slugging 1.474 on such batted balls this year).

Whether Semien can sustain something like this level of production all year is still uncertain. The increase in power has come with an uptick in strikeouts to a carer-high 26.4%, and his contact rate is down more than five percentage points from that 2019 campaign. It’s also worth considering the Jays home environment. The team spent the first two months of the season at their Spring Training complex in Dunedin, which, as Mike Petriello of MLB.com recently pointed out (Twitter link), played very hitter-friendly. With the Jays moving to Buffalo (and perhaps eventually Toronto) over the next couple months, Semien’s ability to continue hitting for this kind of power is worth monitoring.

The Blue Jays have already gotten plenty of return on their investment in Semien, but there’s much at stake for both in the near future. At 25-24, Toronto will need to play better to stick in the AL postseason picture. Semien, as an impending free agent, would be a logical trade candidate if the Jays fall out of the race. (A midseason deal would remove the possibility of a team making a qualifying offer, which would only improve Semien’s market value). The upcoming free agent shortstop class has drawn plenty of attention, with Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Javier Báez and Carlos Correa all hitting the market. Semien’s older than those four, but he’s also outperforming them all to this point- with the added bonus of proving he can transition to second base if needed without issue. In the process, he’s setting himself up for another fascinating trip to the open market.

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